『HEATHER LONG. Hi, Heather Long from the Washington Post. You always say that the Fed is data dependent, and much of the data that we’ve seen since the June meeting has surprised to the upside or at least been in line with expectations. Can you give us a sense of how that better-than-expected data impacted the FOMC’s thinking? And if we keep seeing these upside surprises, does that change or evolve any FOMC thinking going forward? 』
『CHAIR POWELL. So, yes. I mean, I think we-of course, you know, what we do at every meeting, as I noted, is, we do a deep dive into U.S. economic activity and global activity and, certainly, carefully went through U.S. economic activity, which there has been some positive and some negative, but, overall, the U.S. economy has shown resilience during the intermeeting period.』
わざわざ「we do a deep dive into U.S. economic activity」とか言ってる辺りに言い訳感の大変に強いものを感じますが、そのダイブした結果「the U.S. economy has shown resilience」だそうなのに、
『But, again, the-the issue is more the downside risks and then the shortfall in inflation, and we’re trying to address those. So, in addition, going forward, I would say, we’re going to be monitoring those same things. We’ll be monitoring the evolution of trade uncertainty, of global growth, and of low inflation.』
インフレが低めなのと貿易戦争と世界の成長なんですとよ。
『And we’ll also, of course, be watching the performance of the U.S. economy. As I mentioned, it had shown some resilience here to those issues, and we’ll be putting all of that together, and that’s how we’ll be thinking about policy going forward.』
『This is sort of an insurance cut and not a data-dependent cut? And are we now more in the realm of watching headlines of trade talks than we are watching unemployment rate and inflation numbers, or-and growth numbers? What-how do we know what you’re going to do next, and why now in this new regime?』
『CHAIR POWELL. Yes. So I gave three reasons for what we did, and that is to insure against downside risks to the outlook from weak global growth and trade tensions.』
ダウンサイドリスクへの保険だと。
『So that is-in a sense, that is a risk-management point, and that is a bit of insurance.』
リスクマネジメントで保険だと。
『But we also feel like weak global growth and trade tensions are having an effect on the U.S. economy. You see it now in the second quarter: You see weak investment, you see weak manufacturing-so support demand there and also to support return of inflation to 2 percent. But there’s definitely an insurance aspect of it. 』
だったら見通しを下げて利下げしろやという話になるんですがねえ。
『Trade is unusual. We don’t-you know, the thing is, there isn’t a lot of experience in responding to global trade tensions. So it is a-it’s something that we haven’t faced before and that we’re learning by doing.』
どう見ても「learning by doing」とか威張れるような状態じゃなくて単に株価見て右往左往してるだけじゃん。
『And it is not-it’s not exactly the same as watching global growth, where you see growth weakening, you see central banks and governments responding with fiscal policy, and you see growth strengthening, and you see a business cycle. With trade tensions-which do seem to be having a significant effect on financial market conditions and on the economy-they evolve in a different way, and we have to follow them. 』
「With trade tensions-which do seem to be having a significant effect on financial market conditions and on the economy」って言ってるけど結局は株価でオタオタする話なんですが、そもそも論として貿易問題はFEDが何かやったから改善するものではないのであって、「保険的に緩和」とかしたら金融市場がヒャッハーとなるからそれをバックに貿易問題で益々暴れるのであって、貿易問題で馬鹿をやらかしてその結果米国に自業自得のインドラの矢が降り注いで来て実体経済に波及したら金融政策が出て行けばよろしい訳で、こいつら金融市場の不均衡でバブル発生みたいな方に関しては全然事前対処しないくせに、緩和の方ばっかり事前対処したがるのとかどんだけ緩和脳なんだよと小一時間問い詰めたい。などと勝手な悪態。
『And, by the way, I want to be clear here. We play no role whatsoever in assessing or evaluating trade policies other than as-as trade policy uncertainty has an effect on the U.S. economy in the short and medium term. We’re not in any way criticizing trade policy. That’s really not our job.』
『NICK TIMIRAOS. If I could follow up, I guess in May-in May it seemed as if you were setting a higher bar to cut rates: There would need to be a deterioration in the outlook. In June, you seemed to suggest that if the outlook didn’t improve, there might be a rate cut. Where is that bar right now, because I think there’s some confusion about how the Committee is responding.』
『CHAIR POWELL. Yes. So we, as we noted-we noted at the bottom of the statement that language, which really says how we’re thinking about it.』
というのはステートメントの3パラが今後の金利をどうするかという話で、そこの最後のところに「This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.」(直近FOMCステートメント)とある訳ですが、今まで散々っぱら「というデータにディペンデントしないで利下げしたでしょ」って質問されているのでその時点でもう話がみてらんないのですが、
『So it says, as we’re contemplating the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, we’ll continue to monitor the implications of incoming information-and it talks about that language.』
いやだからその見通しと関係ないところで利下げしてるじゃん。
『So, you know, I can’t-all I can tell you is, we’ll be looking at weak global growth. We’ll be looking very carefully to see how that’s happening. And I think you see-you learn-every cycle you learn about these things.』
はあそうですか。
『So we will see whether growth is picking up, whether it’s bottoming out. We’ll see that picture. We’ll also see on trade. You know, we’re going to be seeing-I think we’ve learned a lot on trade in this cycle. I think we’ll continue to learn more, and on inflation we will.』
『So, in addition, the U.S. economy itself is-the performance of the U.S. economy will enter into that. So I would love to be more precise, but with trade, it is a factor that we have to assess in kind of a new way. Those are the things that we’ll be looking at, and-you know, in making our decisions going forward.』
『EDWARD LAWRENCE. Edward Lawrence with Fox Business Network. So a rate hike last December was seen by some economists and the St. Louis Fed president, James Bullard, as a step too far. Now the Fed’s waited about seven months for a rate cut. You said today you were concerned about downside risks. So could some of the weakness on the business side, with that fixed investment and the sluggish side on the business side, be because the Fed waited so long? I want to get your thoughts on that and talk about why you feel that this nudge is the right level. 』
『CHAIR POWELL. Yes. So we don’t hear that from businesses. They don’t come in and say, “We’re not investing because, you know, the federal funds rate is too high.” I haven’t heard that from a business. What you hear is that demand is weak for their products.』
『You see manufacturing being weak all over the world. Investment-business investment is weak. And I wouldn’t lay all of that at the door of trade talks. I think there’s a-there’s a global business cycle happening with manufacturing and investment, and that’s-that’s been, you know, definitely a bigger factor than, certainly, we expected late last year. I think global-global growth started to slow down in the middle of last year, but that has gone on to a greater extent. And, by the way, trade policy uncertainty has also been, I think, more elevated than we anticipated.』
『In terms of, is this the-we believe this is the right move for today, and we think it’s-we think it will serve the three ends that I mentioned. And I’ve already gone over how we’re thinking about going forward.』
[外部リンク] Price and Monetary Policy: Japan's Experience1 Remarks by Yutaka Yamaguchi, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, at a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming between August 26 and 28, 1999. September 2, 1999 Bank of Japan
『For all these reasons, policymakers felt that, for their actions to gain public support, they would need absolutely solid evidence of inflationary potential building up. When such evidence finally emerged in 1989, they quickly seized the moment to reverse the policy.』
『Inflation picked up but peaked in 1990-91 at mid-3%. On the basis of the inflation track record, I would conclude that preemptive policy to achieve sustained price stability would probably have been desirable but must have been very hard to initiate.』
『Professors Bernanke and Gertler indicated in their simulation results that the BOJ should have raised short term interest rates to 8% in 1988 and even higher in the following years. But all through 1988 inflation was pretty close to zero. I don't see how a central bank can increase interest to 8 or 10% when we don't have inflation at all.』
って英文で「I don't see how a central bank can increase interest to 8 or 10% when we don't have inflation at all.」って言っていまして、日本語訳の方は「このように、物価の上昇が全く見られない時に、中央銀行が金利を8%や10%に引き上げるといったことが、はたしてできるものでしょうか。」って表現していますが、これ英文原文の方がバッサリと斬っている感が強いですな(^^)。
『4. Attempts to restrain asset price at later stage would face even greater difficulties. In this regard, market reaction following the BOJ tightening is illuminating.』
『The Tokyo stock market shrugged off the first two rate hikes, continued to rise for six more months and started to fall only after the third rate increase. The lag was even longer for the real estate market to peak out. The pattern of implied forward rates indicated the market's conviction that the rising interest rate would be short-lived, presumably for the reasons I have described above.』
『This episode seems to suggest that, once the asset market gained momentum, it could take more than gentle strikes to break its neck, for monetary policy would have to be adjusted tight enough to match the enhanced state of expectation.』
日本語訳も分かりやすいのですが英文の言い方の方が迫力あるというか露骨というか。
『A firmly imbedded market expectation of continued low interest rate could take strong actions to be corrected. But, when such expectation begins to change, perceived future risk also begins to grow and the market suddenly starts to fall.A self-feeding process tends to develop between weakening market and increasing risk premium.』
『That is why asset market abruptly collapses when somehow turning point arrives, making "soft landing" difficult.』
『In fact Tokyo stock market fell by 40% in one year after the peak; the BOJ's business contacts also confirmed in late 1990 an abrupt shift in the tide in the property market. In other words, if monetary policy targeted on asset price in a situation like Japan of ten years ago, the risk would be that, once the gear is reversed, the combined effects of tight money and asset market correction could well turn out to be a disproportionately large pressure on real activity.』
『JEANNA SMIALEK. Hi, Chair Powell. Jeanna Smialek with the New York Times. Per your statement here, I guess the question is, is there any reason to believe that a 25 basis point cut is going to be sufficient to expediently return inflation to your 2 percent target? And, if not, what are you going to be looking at to convince you that you need to cut rates again? What is the hurdle rate there? 』
『CHAIR POWELL. So I think you have to look at not just the 25 basis point cut, but look at the Committee’s actions over the course of the year.』
これはひどい。
『As I noted in my opening statement, we started off expecting some rate increases, we moved to a patient setting for a few months, and now we’ve moved here. I think what you’ve seen over the course of the year is, as we’ve moved to a more accommodative policy, the economy has actually performed just about as expected with that gradually increasing support.』
『And I think-I wouldn’t take credit for all of that, but I do think that increasing policy support has kept the economy on track and kept the outlook favorable.』
そうやってスタンスを緩和方向に進めていくことによって経済のサポートができた、だそうな。
『In terms of the rest of your question, the Committee is really thinking of this as a way of adjusting policy to a somewhat more accommodative stance to further the three objectives that I mentioned: to insure against downside risks, to provide support to the economy, that those factors are-where factors are pushing down on economic growth, and then to support inflation.』
『So we do think it will serve all of those goals, but again, we’re thinking of it as essentially in the nature of a midcycle adjustment to policy. 』
ここは言い方が良くなくて、「a midcycle adjustment to policy」ってどっち方向へのアジャストメントのサイクルの真ん中なのよというのがよー分からん、まあ本人は今後も緩和度合いを調整するでしょうって言うつもりだったと思うのですが、これだとここでおしまいでそのうち元に戻すのか、今後も下げるのかがよーわからんという感じですが、ご案内のヘッドラインにされてたコメントとかにあったように連続利下げサイクルとは言いたくなかったというのは分かるのだが、だったらスパッと50下げて「しばらく様子見」と言った方が綺麗だったような気がしますけどねえ。まあ元々理屈が無いからシャーナイのだが。
でもって次の質疑。
『MICHAEL MCKEE. Michael McKee from Bloomberg Television and Radio. There’s a perception out there that perhaps, in this case, the Fed is something of a hammer in search of a nail, because the latest consumer spending reports, as you suggested, don’t seem to show any kind of demand problem in the U.S. And when you look at mortgage rates, auto lending rates, they’ve all come down. And so, wondering exactly what problem lower capital costs will solve. 』
『The-the performance of the economy has been reasonably good. The position of the economy is as close to our objectives as it’s been in a long time, and the outlook is also good.』
なのに何で利下げする??
『What we’ve been monitoring since the beginning of the year is, effectively, downside risks to that outlook from weakening global growth, and we see that everywhere: weak manufacturing, weak global growth now, particularly in the European Union and China.』
『In addition, we see trade policy developments, which at times have been disruptive and then have been less so, and also inflation running below target.』
ダウンサイドリスクとインフレがやや低い事を挙げていまして、
『So we see those as threats to what is clearly a favorable outlook, and we see this action as designed to support them and keep that outlook favorable. And, frankly, it is a continuation of what we’ve been doing all year to provide more support against those very same risks. 』
『MICHAEL MCKEE. But the follow-up question is, how does it do that? How does cutting interest rates lower-or, how does cutting interest rates keep that going, since the cost of capital doesn’t seem to be the issue here? 』
追い打ちに対してパウエルセンセの答え。
『CHAIR POWELL. You know, I-I really think it does, and I think the evidence of my eyes tells me that our policy does support-it supports confidence, it supports economic activity, household and business confidence, and through channels that we understand.』
つまり・・・・・・・
『So it will lower borrowing costs. It will-and it will work. And I think you see it. Since-you know, since we noted our vigilance about the situation in June, you saw financial conditions move up, and you saw-I won’t take credit for the whole recovery, but you saw financial conditions move up. You see confidence, which had troughed in June-you saw it move back up. You see economic activity on a healthy basis. It just-it seems to work through confidence channels as well as the mechanical channels that you are talking about. 』
[外部リンク] of Eric S. Rosengren, Commenting on Dissenting Vote at the Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee August 2, 2019
上記URL先に行くとPDF版もありまして、ボストン連銀の場合は必ずPDFバージョンが付くのでそれ自体は仕様なのですが(ちなみに何故かNY連銀は総裁のスピーチとかにPDFバージョンを付けてくれないという謎仕様が連綿と続いている)、今回のは何せ図表とかまであるので、プリントアウトして読みたい方はPDFの方が表示が乱れにくいかもしれません(別にHTMLでも乱れないとは思うけど)。 [外部リンク] the unemployment rate near 50-year lows and inflation likely to rise toward the 2 percent target, and with financial stability concerns being somewhat elevated given near-record equity prices and corporate leverage, I do not see a clear and compelling case for additional monetary accommodation at this time.』
>with financial stability concerns being somewhat elevated
(;∀;)イイシテキタ゛ナー
しかもそのfinancial stability concernsを示すものが、「near-record equity prices and corporate leverage」と来ておりまして、ダンスパーティーの宴たけなわにパンチボウルを下げる中央銀行ということで、セントラルバンカーキタコレとかいうとケチだの辛気臭いだの麿の手先だのと言われそうですが、いやこういうもんだろ中央銀行ってのは、とあたしゃ思いますけどそこは異論がだいぶあるのは分かります。
『The following eight charts reflect the key data on which I base this view, with each chart’s title summarizing a key point:』
『(1) The unemployment rate is near 50-year lows (2) The trimmed mean PCE inflation rate is at 2% (3)The U.S. economy is growing somewhat faster than potential (4)The cost of credit is not elevated (5)Market volatility is not elevated (6)Credit spreads are not elevated (7)Stock pricesare near all-time highs (8)Corporate leverage is near an all-time high』
とまあ仰せ御尤もというチャートが並んでいますが、この中で(チャートの凡例見ればわかりますけど)
(2)はダラス連銀の公表している10%刈込平均PCEインデックスを使っている (3)はReal GDP GrowthとPotential Growthの比較で、実質潜在成長率を1.8%程度で置いてる (4)はReal Federal Funds Rateを使っている (5)はVIXインデックス(シカゴ取引所の奴)を使っている (6)はMoody's Seasoned BAA Corporate Bond Spread Over 10-Year Treasuryを使っている (7)はSP500指数を使っている (8)はNonfinancial Business Debt Relative to GDPってのを使っている
『The following is a statement by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George explaining her dissenting vote at the FOMC’s July 30-31, 2019, meeting:』
ほうほうそれでそれで?
『“I dissented with the decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate.In my view, incoming economic data and the outlook for economic activity over the medium term warranted no change in the policy rate.』
あっさり味。
『The moderation of economic growth in 2019 is in line with my outlook that calls for a gradual decline to a trend level over the medium term. With moderate growth, record low unemployment, and a benign inflation outlook, maintaining the Committee’s policy settings at 2.25-2.5 percent would have been appropriate, in my view.』
『There are certainly risks to the outlook as the economy faces the crosscurrents emanating from trade policy uncertainty and weaker global activity. Should incoming data point to a weakening economy, I would be prepared to adjust policy consistent with the Federal Reserve’s mandates for maximum sustainable employment and stable prices.”』
[外部リンク] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate.』(今回)
『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity is rising at a moderate rate.』(前回)
『Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending has picked up from earlier in the year, growth of business fixed investment has been soft.』(今回)
『Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending appears to have picked up from earlier in the year, indicators of business fixed investment have been soft.』(前回)
雇用関連は引き続き強い表現のままで、家計に関してはappears to have picked upがhas picked upだからこちらは上方修正、その一方で企業の固定資産投資に関しては前回が「弱くなっているという指標がありますな」だったのが「弱くなってる」と表現を強めてここを下方修正ですが、これ後の方で出ますし、それこそ昨日ネタにした日銀の展望レポートでもあるのですが、貿易問題のテンションが製造業の投資意欲を下げているってのが、今後の不確実性というか下方リスクというかのメインの話になっているのは日米欧共通。
『On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.』(今回)
『On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.』(前回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.』(今回) 『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.』(前回)
これはいつもの枕詞。
『In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent.』(今回)
『In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.』(前回)
『This action supports the Committee's view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain.』(今回)
『The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook have increased.』(前回)
今回の施策によって持続的な成長と2%物価への達成をサポートします、と言いつつ、最後に「but uncertainties about this outlook remain.」と入れてくるのは打ち止め感を出さないで追加利下げの可能性を排除しないということを意味するので、あとはこの部分に関しての説明次第ですな、とは思う。まあこういう説明にするしかないでしょうな声明文は(利下げ打ち止めする気なら別だけどそうではなさそうなので)。
『As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.』(今回)
『In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.』(前回)
今後の政策パスについてはcontemplatesって何じゃらほいと思って手元のデイリーコンサイス英和辞典でみてみたら(高校生かよというツッコミはパス)熟考するとか書いてありますな。でまあ今後の経済データを見ながら熟考する、ということなんですが、前回は利下げ予告ホームランだったのでwill act as appropriateとなっていたのが、今回は考えまっせになっているので、追加利下げボンボン来て金融相場ヒャッハー(いやまあ今でも大概に金融相場ヒャッハーなのだが)を期待というか催促というか恫喝というかをしていた向きにとってはちょっと表現後退と不満かもしれんが、今から連続利下げ織り込ませに行く訳にもいかんでしょう(とにかく今回は打ち止め感も盛大な先行き利下げ感も出せないというゲームだから)と思うのでこれはアタクシは妥当と思うが足りんという人はいるでしょうな。
・第3パラグラフ:ここは全文一致
『In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.』(今回)
『In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.』(前回)
『The Committee will conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account in August, two months earlier than previously indicated.』(今回)
『Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; and Randal K. Quarles.
Voting against the action were Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.』(今回)
『Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; Esther L. George; Randal K. Quarles; and Eric S. Rosengren.
Voting against the action was James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.』(前回)
We decided today to lower the target for the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 2 percent to 2-1/4 percent.』
はい。
『The outlook for the U.S. economy remains favorable and this action is designed to support that outlook. It is intended to insure against downside risks from weak global growth and trade policy uncertainty; to help offset the effects these factors are currently having on the economy; and to promote a faster return of inflation to our symmetric 2 percent objective.』
ということで「It is intended to insure against downside risks」であり、「promote a faster return of inflation」なんですな。まあそもそも論から言えば「物価が上がりにくい状況の中で物価目標の早期達成にこだわり過ぎる必要があるのか」という問題を考えて欲しいし、そうしないと金融不均衡を生むリスクの方が高いと思うんですが、なにせこいつら金融政策で物価2%はホイホイ達成できると思ってるから仕方ない。
『All of these objectives will support achievement of our overarching goal: to sustain the expansion, with a strong job market and inflation close to our objective, for the benefit of the American people.』
アーチを描くゴールとかゆうてますが、実際問題として金融緩和で無駄にサポートされているのは資産価格であって、資産価格を政策的にサポートしようとするっていうのはそれは普通に資産持ってる人と持ってない人の格差が拡大する話で、the American peopleとか言ってますがまるで逆の事になってねえか、などと思ったりもするのでありました、という話は現世利益とは関係ないですかそうですか。
『We also decided to conclude the runoff of our securities portfolio in August, rather than in September as previously planned. And I will discuss the thinking behind today’s interest rate reduction, and then turn to the path forward.』
ということで説明開始。
・最初の部分はただの状況説明と言い訳
『As the year began, both the economy and monetary policy were in a good place. The unemployment rate was below 4 percent, and inflation had been running near our 2 percent objective for nine months. Our interest rate target was at the low end of estimates of neutral. Over the first half of the year, the economy grew at a healthy pace and job gains pushed unemployment to near a half-century low. Wages have been rising, particularly for lower-paying jobs. People who live and work in low- and middle-income communities tell us that many who have struggled to find work are now getting opportunities to add new and better chapters to their lives. This underscores for us the importance of sustaining the expansion so that the strong job market reaches more of those left behind.』
『Through the course of the year, weak global growth, trade policy uncertainty, and muted inflation have prompted the FOMC to adjust its assessment of the appropriate path of interest rates. The Committee moved from expecting rate increases this year, to a patient stance about any changes, and then to today’s action. The median Committee participant’s assessments of the neutral rate of interest and the longer run normal rate of unemployment have also declined this year, reinforcing the case for a somewhat lower path for our policy rate. These changes in the anticipated path of interest rates have eased financial conditions and have supported the economy.』
この辺の説明も正直退屈なので引用するだけしてスルー。
『At our June meeting, many Committee participants saw that the case for lowering the federal funds rate had strengthened, but the Committee wanted to get a better sense of the overall direction of events. Since then, we have seen both positive and negative developments.』
『Job growth was strong in June and, looking through month-to-month fluctuations, the data point to continued strength. We expect job growth to be slower than last year, but above what we believe is required to hold the unemployment rate steady. 』
労働市場の話をしたあとの以下が利下げの理由2本柱の話。
・トレードテンションの高まりによる不確実性と海外経済の減速が製造業セクターに来ているので
『GDP growth in the second quarter came in close to expectations. Consumption-supported by rising incomes and high household confidence-is the main engine driving the economy forward.』
メインエンジンの方は確りしているという説明ですけれども・・・・・・
『But manufacturing output has declined for two consecutive quarters, and business fixed investment fell in the second quarter.』
『 Foreign growth has disappointed, particularly in manufacturing, and notably in the euro area and China.』
と来まして、
『In response to this weakness, many central banks around the world are increasing policy accommodation or contemplating doing so.』
『After simmering early in the year, trade policy tensions nearly boiled over in May and June, but now appear to have returned to a simmer. Looking through this variability, our business contacts tell us that the ongoing uncertainty is making some companies more cautious about their capital spending.』
はいはいトランプのせいトランプのせい。
・でもって物価がアガランチ会長なのでインフレ期待が下がるリスクが云々が2本目の柱
『The domestic inflation shortfall has continued. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices and is a better gauge of future developments than is total inflation, has run at 1.6 percent over the past 12 months. We continue to expect that inflation will return over time to 2 percent. But domestic inflation pressures remain muted, and global disinflationary pressures persist. Wages are rising, but not at a pace that would put much upward pressure on inflation. We are mindful that inflation’s return to 2 percent may be further delayed, and that continued below-target inflation could lead to a worrisome and difficult-to-reverse downward slide in longer-term expectations.』
『So taking all of that on board, the Committee still sees a favorable baseline outlook. Over the year, however, incoming information on global growth, trade policy uncertainty, and muted inflation have led the Committee to gradually lower its assessments of the path of the policy interest rate that would best support that outlook. Today, we judge that those factors warrant the policy adjustment I described.』
still sees a favorable baseline outlookなのに利下げするってのも何ちゅうか無理筋な理屈ではあるのですが(悪化するからプリエンティブに対応の方が理屈はスッキリしている)。
『As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.』
声明文では削除されていましたが、ここでwill act as appropriate to sustain the expansionというのを入れていますので、基本的にはまだ利下げする可能性の方にバイアスを掛けて説明している、という事になりますが、あまり前のめりの説明をオープニングステートメントでぶち込んでしまうと、この夏が熱いクレクレ相場になってしまいますので、まあそこまでの話もできんという感じですな。
『In particular, in a situation where downside risks to economic activity and prices, mainly regarding developments in overseas economies, are significant, the Bank will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if there is a greater possibility that the momentum toward achieving the price stability target will be lost.』(上記URL先今回の声明文英文版より)
「if there is a greater possibility」って何に対してgreaterなのかという感じで、これ日本文もナンジャソラですが英文もまたナンジャソラという感じではありますな。
『You mentioned there was some disagreement about nuances; would it be maybe possible to detail them a little bit more whether there was any debate on any size of package or scale or timing of a rate cut, that most people now suspect will happen in September? (後半割愛)』
『Well, you know that some Council members have doubts about the two-tier system. So we had that discussion as well and now the statement says that if we are to lower interest rates, that will come with mitigating measures. That is quite clear.』
利下げをした時の付利に関する話とかは人によって異なる意見、というようにクリアーな違いもある。
j『The nuances were of that sort of nature. There was no absolute exclusion of any instrument. That's reflected well in the breadth of the mandate that's been given to the committees.』
何か禅問答というか蒟蒻問答のような説明で何とも。
・足もとドイツの特に製造業の悪化を示す経済指標が出ているのに・・・・・・・・・・
この質問の後半である。
『(前半割愛)My second question: we've seen quite a lot of bad data this week, notably, on German manufacturing and German companies more broadly in the Ifo publication today, that led to some expectations of action as soon as today. Was there any discussion of that at the Governing Council meeting this morning? Any discussion about taking action as soon as today, basically; to do a rate cut as soon as today, or other measures as soon as today?』
これはまた直球で来ましたな。足元ドイツの製造業中心に悪化しているのに何で今日は何もしなかったのか。
『(前半割愛)On the second point where you asked whether there was any discussion today: no, there wasn't. There wasn't because the sense is that we see an outlook… Well, first of all, on the inflation front we don't like what we see. That's very important.』
そうはいっても全体の見通しが変わった訳ではありません(キリッ)。
『Second, we see an outlook which is in a sense… Let me just step back and recall: in the last G7 meeting when I was asked to make the assessment for the euro area economy, I said, “Look, it's difficult to be gloomy today because the present situation is one where you see signs of strength.” At the same time, you see especially in certain sectors, in certain countries, a quickly deteriorating economic outlook.』
『Given that we had the last June projections we decided that we want to see the next projections before taking action. And also the sense is that all this is pretty complex, and needs preparation.』
『In terms of this new language on the symmetry of the ECB's target, is that something that has formally changed or that there would have to be some kind of formal agreement about shifting the strategy of the ECB on that, and has it happened?』
『My second question is, it was relating to the previous question: was there any discussion about the size of a potential rate cut or the types of assets that you might look into buying?』
『The answer to the second question is no. There wasn't any. As I just said, it was a meeting where we… It was based on two… If I just try to summarise the main lines of the meeting, one was an assessment of the current growth outlook and especially of inflation, current and projected. As you know, inflation expectations now have been at historical lows for some time. So we have to consider that. With the admission - and that's again very important - with the admission that we don't like this. The second part was based on how to design this preparation, but not really discussing the various aspects of this. We didn’t discuss them at all, really.』
