[外部リンク] 26, 2019 Federal Reserve Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communications: Some Preliminary Views Governor Lael Brainard At the Presentation of the 2019 William F. Butler Award New York Association for Business Economics, New York, New York
『There are good reasons to expect the economy to grow at a pace modestly above potential over the next year or so, supported by strong consumers and a healthy job market, despite persistent uncertainty about trade conflict and disappointing foreign growth.』
『Recent data provide some reassurance that consumer spending continues to expand at a healthy pace despite some slowing in retail sales. Consumer sentiment remains solid, and the employment picture is positive. Housing seems to have turned a corner and is poised for growth following several weak quarters.』
『Business investment remains downbeat, restrained by weak growth abroad and trade conflict. But there is little sign so far that the softness in trade, manufacturing, and business investment is affecting consumer spending, and the effect on services has been limited.』
『Employment remains strong. The employment-to-population ratio for prime-age adults has moved up to its pre-recession peak, and the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate is near a 50-year low.2 Monthly job gains remain above the pace needed to absorb new entrants into the labor force despite some slowing since last year. And initial claims for unemployment insurance-a useful real-time indicator historically-remain very low despite some modest increases.』
雇用に関しては威勢の良い説明。
『Data on inflation have come in about as I expected, on balance, in recent months.』
物価に関してはこの後目標よりも低い水準ですという話が続くのですが、出オチがas I expectedなので悲観モードではありませんわなと。
『Inflation remains below the Federal Reserve's 2 percent symmetric objective, which has been true for most of the past seven years. The price index for core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which excludes food and energy prices and is a better indicator of future inflation than overall PCE prices, increased 1.7 percent over the 12 months through September.』
『More broadly, the balance of risks remains to the downside, although there has been some improvement in risk sentiment in recent weeks. The risk of a disorderly Brexit in the near future has declined significantly, and there is some hope that a U.S.?China trade truce could avert additional tariffs.』
『While risks remain, financial market indicators suggest market participants see a diminution in such risks, and probabilities of recessions from models using market data have declined.』
『The baseline is for continued moderate expansion, a strong labor market, and inflation moving gradually to our symmetric 2 percent objective.』
と来まして、
『The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has taken significant action to provide insurance against the risks associated with trade conflict and weak foreign growth against a backdrop of muted inflation. Since July, the Committee has lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 3/4 percentage point, to the current range of 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent.』
3回も保険で利下げしたのはsignificant actionだよという事で、
『It will take some time for the full effect of this accommodation to work its way through economic activity, the labor market, and inflation.』
[外部リンク] in developed countries share a common concern that prolonged low nominal interest rates may pose a threat to their business, as the level of nominal interest rates is often positively correlated with bank profits in the data.』
『It is not well understood, however, how low nominal interest rates impact bank profits and what they imply for banking stability.』
ほうほうそうですかそうですか。
『To address these issues, this study theoretically explores how the level of nominal interest rates affects bank profits and banking stability in the long run by extending a model of bank runs constructed by Gertler and Kiyotaki (American Economic Review, 2015). 』
・・・・・というのは良いのですが、ここで出てくるrunという単語なんですが、in the long runの方は期間という意味で良いと思うのですが、model of bank runsの方なんですけど、先行研究のペーパー見てないからこっちの本文を泡を吹きながら読むと(本文の24ページ辺りからこのモデルを使った分析の章がある)、どうも経営があじゃぱーになる方の(この先に「a bank run equilibrium」っての出てくる)runっぽいのですが、お願いだから多義に読める言葉をこういうモデルの時に使わないでくれ素人が読むのに困るんですが清滝先生って感じです。
『The model, calibrated to Japan and other developed countries, makes three predictions:』
その3つの推定とは。
『 (1) low interest rates do indeed reduce bank profits by compressing the deposit spread;』
『 (2) due to the presence of the effective lower bound of the policy rate and a slow recovery of bank net worth after a run, low interest rates bring the economy closer to a state where a bank run equilibrium can exist;』
『(3) although there are quantitative differences across countries, a decline in nominal interest rates does not necessarily bring the economy to a state with a bank run equilibrium on its own, except for in severe cases where the TFP growth rate or the target inflation rate falls below zero.』
『Thirdly, low nominal interest rates do not necessarily mean that the economy is in a state with a run equilibrium. Indeed, based on our calibration for Japanese economy, neither a low TFP growth rate nor a low target ination rate causes a run on its own when taking a positive value.』(直近2つの引用だけ直上のURL先のペーパー本文から引用)
『Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations』という小見出しから。
『The manager pro tem first reviewed developments in financial markets over the intermeeting period. Early in the period, market participants focused on signs of weakness in U.S. economic data with some soft data from business surveys viewed as substantiating concerns that global headwinds were spilling over to the U.S. economy. Later in the period, markets responded to news suggesting favorable developments around Brexit and a partial U.S.-China trade deal. On balance, U.S. financial conditions ended the period little changed.』
『Regarding the outlook for U.S. monetary policy, the Open Market Desk's surveys and market-based indicators pointed to a high likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in the target range at the October meeting. The probability that survey respondents placed on this outcome was broadly similar to the probability of a 25 basis point cut ahead of the July and September meetings.』
『Further ahead, the path implied by the medians of survey respondents' modal forecasts for the federal funds rate remained essentially flat after this meeting. Meanwhile, the market-implied path suggested that investors expected around 25 basis points of additional easing by the end of 2020, after the anticipated easing at this meeting.』
『The manager pro tem next turned to a review of money market developments since early October. On October 11, the Committee announced its decision to maintain reserves at or above the level that prevailed in early September through a program of Treasury bill purchases and repurchase agreement (repo) operations.』
『After the announcement, the Desk conducted regular operations that offered at least $75 billion in overnight repo funding and between $135 and $170 billion in term funding.』
『These operations fostered conditions that helped maintain the federal funds rate within the target range through two channels.』
2つのチャネルとは?
『First, they provided funding in repo markets that dampened repo market pressure that would otherwise have passed through to the federal funds market, and second, they increased the supply of reserves in the banking system.』
『In anticipation of another projected sharp decline in reserves and expected rate pressures around October 31, the Desk announced an increase in the size of overnight repos to $120 billion, and an increase in the size of the two term repo operations that crossed the October month-end to $45 billion.』
10月末の大きな資金吸収に備えて10月末跨ぎの資金供給を多めに実施したそうな。
『With respect to purchases of Treasury bills for reserve management purposes, the Desk had purchased more than half of the initial $60 billion monthly amount for October, and propositions at the five operations conducted to date had been strong. Respondents to the Desk surveys expected reserve management purchases of Treasury bills to continue at the same pace for some time. The combination of repo operations and bill purchases lifted reserve levels above those observed in early September.』
『The manager pro tem finished by noting that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York would soon release a request for public comment on a plan to publish a series of backward looking Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) averages and a daily SOFR index to support the transition away from instruments based on LIBOR (London interbank offered rate). Publication of these series was expected to begin in the first half of 2020.』
これは指標金利改革で今後の指標金利となる予定の後決めSOFRの公表に関する話。
『By unanimous vote, the Committee ratified the Desk's domestic transactions over the intermeeting period. There were no intervention operations in foreign currencies for the System's account during the intermeeting period.』
オペレーションに関しては後付けでFOMCの承認を取る建付けになっています。
でもって今後のオプションに関するお話が続く。
『Review of Options for Repo Operations to Support Control of the Federal Funds Rate』という小見出し。
『The staff briefed participants on the recent experience with using repo operations to support control of the federal funds rate and on possibly maintaining a role for repo operations in the monetary policy implementation framework over the longer run.』
今回のレビューと今後の話な。
『Ongoing capacity for repo operations could be viewed as useful in an ample-reserves regime as a way of providing insurance against unexpected stresses in money markets that could drive the federal funds rate outside the Committee's target range over a sustained period.』
『The staff presented two potential approaches for conducting repo operations if the Committee decided to maintain an ongoing role for such operations.』
でもって今後のオプションとして2つ。
『Under the first approach, the Desk would conduct modestly sized, relatively frequent repo operations designed to provide a high degree of readiness should the need for larger operations arise; under the second approach, the FOMC would establish a standing fixed-rate facility that could serve as an automatic money market stabilizer.8』
もうちょっと少額で頻繁に予見可能な形でシステムレポを行うというのと、固定金利の常設レポファシリティを作るという話。脚注8は『8. The staff briefed the Committee in June 2019 on the possible role of a standing repo facility in the monetary policy implementation framework. 』という話です。
『Assessing these two approaches involved several considerations, including the degree of assurance of control over the federal funds rate, the likelihood that participation in the Federal Reserve's repo operations could become stigmatized, the possibility that the operations could encourage the Federal Reserve's counterparties to take on excessive liquidity risks in their portfolios, and the potential disintermediation of financial transactions currently undertaken by private counterparties.』
『Regular, modestly sized repo operations likely would pose relatively little risk of stigma or moral hazard, but they may provide less assurance of control over the federal funds rate because it might be difficult for the Federal Reserve to anticipate money market pressures and scale up its repo operations accordingly.』
『A standing fixed-rate repo facility would likely provide substantial assurance of control over the federal funds rate, but use of the facility could become stigmatized, particularly if the rate was set at a relatively high level. Conversely, a standing facility with a rate set at a relatively low level could result in larger and more frequent repo operations than would be appropriate. And by effectively standing ready to provide a form of liquidity on an as-needed basis, such a facility could increase the risk that some institutions may take on an undesirably high amount of liquidity risk.』
『In their comments following the staff presentation, participants emphasized the importance of maintaining reserves at a level consistent with the Committee's choice of an ample-reserves monetary policy implementation framework, in which control over the level of the federal funds rate is exercised primarily through the setting of the Federal Reserve's administered rates and in which active management of the supply of reserves is not required.』
ここからFOMC参加者の議論、当面は大きめの超過準備を持ったままになりそうですな。
『Some participants indicated that, in such an environment, they would have some tolerance for allowing the federal funds rate to vary from day to day and to move occasionally outside its target range, especially in those instances associated with easily identifiable technical events; a couple of participants expressed discomfort with such misses.』
『Participants expressed a range of views on the relative merits of the two approaches described by the staff for conducting repo operations.』
常設ファシリティかレギュラーオペかの話。
『Many participants noted that, once an ample supply of reserves is firmly established, there might be little need for a standing repo facility or for frequent repo operations.』
『Some of these participants indicated that a basic principle in implementing an ample-reserves framework is to maintain reserves on an ongoing basis at levels that would obviate the need for open market operations to address pressures in funding markets in all but exceptional circumstances.』
レギュラーオペの賛同者数名でして・・・・・・・
『Many participants remarked, however, that even in an environment with ample reserves, a standing facility could serve as a useful backstop to support control of the federal funds rate in the event of outsized shocks to the system.』
常設ファシリティが支持されるのかよ・・・・・と思いますが、
『Several of these participants also suggested that, if a standing facility were created that allowed banks to monetize a portion of their securities holdings at times of market stress, banks could possibly reduce their demand for reserves in normal times, which could make it feasible for the monetary policy implementation framework to operate with a significantly smaller quantity of reserves than would otherwise be needed.』
『A couple of participants pointed out that establishing a standing facility would be similar to the practice of some other major central banks.』
『A number of participants noted that, before deciding whether to implement a standing repo facility, additional work would be necessary to assess the likely implications of different design choices for a standing repo facility, such as pricing, eligible counterparties, and the set of acceptable collateral.Echoing issues raised at the Committee's June 2019 meeting, various participants commented on the need to carefully evaluate these design choices to guard against the potential for moral hazard, stigma, disintermediation risk, or excessive volatility in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.』
『A couple of other participants suggested that an approach based on modestly sized, frequent repo operations that could be quickly and substantially ramped up in response to emerging market pressures would mitigate the moral hazard, disintermediation, and stigmatization risks associated with a standing repo facility.』
『Participants made no decisions at this meeting on the longer-run role of repo operations in the ample-reserves regime or on an approach for conducting repo operations over the longer run. They generally agreed that they should continue to monitor the market effects of the Federal Reserve's ongoing repo operations and Treasury bill purchases and that additional analysis of the recent period of money market dislocations or of fluctuations in the Federal Reserve's non-reserve liabilities was warranted. Some participants called for further research on the role that the financial regulatory environment or other factors may have played in the recent dislocations.』
[外部リンク] for Greening the Financial System)のメンバーとなりました。NGFSは気候変動リスクへの対応について、メンバー間で経験を共有し、検討することを目的とした、中央銀行・金融監督当局のネットワークです。日本銀行では、NGFSへの参加を通じて、気候変動リスクに対する理解を高め、国際的な議論へ参画していきます。』
『この点、気候変動に関する論点についての国際的な議論を行う場として、「気候変動リスク等に係る金融当局ネットワーク(the Network for Greening the Financial System、NGFS)」があることを紹介させてください。日本銀行は、このたびNGFSのメンバーとなりました。他の参加機関とともに今後の議論に貢献していくことを心待ちにしています。私達がNGFSへの参加を決めるに際しては、この分野で国際的な強いリーダーシップを常に発揮されてきた、ここにおられるフランス中央銀行のヴィルロワ・ド・ガロー総裁や他の同僚の方々からの後押しが大きかった点を申し添えます。』
『Participants commented that there was limited scope to bring the policy rate into negative territory, that the evidence on the beneficial effects of negative interest rates abroad was mixed, and that it was unclear what effects negative rates might have on the willingness of financial intermediaries to lend and on the spending plans of households and businesses.』
しかしこの the evidence on the beneficial effects of negative interest rates abroad was mixed とか it was unclear what effects negative rates might have on the willingness of financial intermediaries to lend and on the spending plans of households and businesses とかいや全く持ってその通りなのですが、ECBやBOJの立場を無くす話になっていてワロスワロス。
『Participants noted that negative interest rates would entail risks of introducing significant complexity or distortions to the financial system.』
マイナス金利政策はsignificant complexity or distortions to the financial systemですってよ奥様、ずいぶんと嫌な政策でございますわねえオホホホホホホホホ。
『In particular, some participants cautioned that the financial system in the United States is considerably different from those in countries that implemented negative interest rate policies, and that negative rates could have more significant adverse effects on market functioning and financial stability here than abroad.』
『Notwithstanding these considerations, participants did not rule out the possibility that circumstances could arise in which it might be appropriate to reassess the potential role of negative interest rates as a policy tool.』
『Overall, participants generally agreed that the forward guidance and balance sheet policies followed by the Federal Reserve after the financial crisis had been effective in providing stimulus at the ELB.』
『With estimates of equilibrium real interest rates having declined notably over recent decades, policymakers saw less room to reduce the federal funds rate to support the economy in the event of a downturn. In addition, against a background of inflation undershooting the symmetric 2 percent objective for several years, some participants raised the concern that the scope to reduce the federal funds rate to provide support to economic activity in future recessions could be reduced further if inflation shortfalls continued and led to a decline in inflation expectations.』
『Therefore, participants generally agreed it was important for the Committee to keep a wide range of tools available and employ them as appropriate to support the economy. Doing so would help ensure the anchoring of inflation expectations at a level consistent with the Committee's symmetric 2 percent inflation objective.』
『Some participants noted that the form of the policy response would depend critically on the circumstances the Committee faced at the time.』
そら(状況が変われば)そう(適切な金融政策ツールは変わる)よという話ですが、
『Several participants suggested that communicating to the public clearly and convincingly in advance about how the Committee intended to provide accommodation at the ELB would enhance public confidence and support the effectiveness of whichever tool the Committee selected.』
『Some participants thought it would be helpful for the Committee to evaluate how its tools could be utilized in different economic scenarios, such as when longer-term interest rates were significantly below current levels, and discuss which actions would best address the challenges posed by each scenario.』
『Several participants noted that, particularly if monetary policy became severely constrained at the ELB, expansionary fiscal policy would be especially important in addressing an economic downturn.』
『Participants expected that, at upcoming meetings, they would continue their deliberations on the Committee's review of the monetary policy framework as well as the Committee's Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy. They also generally agreed that the Committee's consideration of possible modifications to its policy strategy, tools, and communication practices would take some time and that the process would be careful, deliberate, and patient. A number of participants judged that the review could be completed around the middle of 2020.』
『 例えば、海外では、この分野の研究を牽引している Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015) が、米国の様々な経済主体のインフレ予想の集計データを用いて、予測誤差と予想改定幅の間の相関関係を分析し、FIRE の妥当性は棄却される一方でノイズ情報仮説や 粘着情報仮説の妥当性は支持される、との結果を報告している。』
『また、英国の企業を 対象にした Boneva et al. (2016) や、カナダの企業を対象にした Richards and Verstraete (2016) も、Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015) と同様の分析を行い、企業のインフレ予 想形成には FIRE が妥当しないことを報告している。』
『このほか、ノイズ情報仮説が示 唆するとおり、インフレ予想は自社の経営環境を巡る情報に影響されるとの分析結果を報告する実証研究もみられている。Coibion et al. (2018b) および Kumar et al. (2015) は、ニュージーランドの企業に対して独自にサーベイを実施した結果を個票レベルで分析し、インフレ予想がインフレ率の実績値や業界内の価格動向、競争環境の影響を 受けていることを指摘している。また、先述の Richards and Verstraete (2016) は、インフレ予想が、原油価格などのマクロ要因のほか、賃金予想、仕入価格予想、人員不足感といった個社レベルの要因にも左右されていると指摘している。』
『The second part of the staff briefing focused on balance sheet policy tools.』
はい。
『The staff discussed the benefits and costs associated with the large-scale asset purchase programs implemented by the Federal Reserve after the financial crisis.』
『In general, the staff's review of the historical experience suggested that the benefits of large-scale asset purchase programs were significant and that many of the potential costs of such programs identified at the time either did not materialize or materialized to a smaller degree than initially feared.』
『In addition, the staff presentation noted that?taking account of investor expectations ahead of the announcement of each new program-the effects of asset purchases did not appear to have diminished materially across consecutive programs.』
『However, going forward, such policies might not be as effective because longer-term interest rates would likely be much lower at the onset of a future asset purchase program than they were before the financial crisis. 』
『The staff also compared the benefits and costs associated with asset purchase programs that are of a fixed cumulative size and those that are flow-based-where purchases continue at a specific pace until certain macroeconomic outcomes are achieved-and examined the potential effectiveness of using asset purchases to place ceilings on interest rates. The briefing also discussed lending programs that could facilitate the flow of credit to households or businesses.』
『Participants discussed the relative merits of qualitative, date-based, and outcome-based forward guidance.』
まずはフォワードガイダンス。
『A number of participants noted that each of these three forms of forward guidance could be effective in providing accommodation, depending on circumstances both at and away from the ELB. They also suggested that different types of forward guidance would likely be needed to address varying economic conditions, and that the communications regarding forward guidance needed to be tailored to explain the Committee's evaluation of the economic outlook.』
『In particular, several participants emphasized that to guard against the possibility of adverse feedback loops in which forward guidance is interpreted by the public as a sign of a sharply deteriorating economic outlook, thus leading households and businesses to become even more cautious in their spending decisions, the Committee would need to clearly communicate how its announced policy could help promote better economic outcomes.』
『On the one hand, relative to qualitative or date-based forward guidance, outcome-based forward guidance has the advantage of creating an explicit link between future monetary policy actions and macroeconomic conditions, thereby helping to support economic stabilization efforts and foster transparency and accountability.』
『On the other hand, outcome-based forward guidance could be complex and difficult to explain and, hence, could potentially be less effective than qualitative or date-based forward guidance if those hurdles could not be overcome.』
『A few participants commented that outcome-based forward guidance, tied to inflation outcomes, could be a useful tool to reinforce the Committee's commitment to its symmetric 2 percent objective.』
『Participants also discussed the benefits and costs of using different types of balance sheet policy.』
はい。
『Participants generally agreed that the balance sheet policies implemented by the Federal Reserve after the crisis had eased financial conditions and had contributed to the economic recovery, and that those tools had become an important part of the Committee's current toolkit.』
『However, some participants pointed out that research had produced a sizable range of estimates of the magnitude of the economic effects of balance sheet actions.』
『In addition, some participants noted that the effectiveness of these tools might be diminished in the future, as longer-term interest rates have declined to very low levels and would likely be even lower following an adverse shock that could lead to the resumption of large-scale asset purchases; as a result, there might be limited scope for balance sheet tools to provide accommodation.』
『Several participants commented on the advantages and disadvantages of flow-based asset purchase programs tied to the achievement of economic outcomes.』
フローベースの買入(特定の経済状況に紐付けた形での)のプロコンに関してのコメントとな。
『On the one hand, such programs adjusted automatically in response to the performance of the economy and, hence, were more straightforward to implement and communicate. On the other hand, flow-based asset purchase programs may result in the balance sheet rising to undesirable levels.』
『A few participants also commented that, barring significant dislocations to particular segments of the markets, they would restrict asset purchases to Treasury securities to avoid perceptions that the Federal Reserve was engaging in credit allocation across sectors of the economy.』
『In considering policy tools that the Federal Reserve had not used in the recent past, participants discussed the benefits and costs of using balance sheet tools to cap rates on short- or long-maturity Treasury securities through open market operations as necessary.』
短期または長期金利のキャップ政策(バランスシート政策に含まれていますな)に関して。
『A few participants saw benefits to capping longer-term interest rates that more directly influence household and business spending. In addition, capping longer-maturity interest rates using balance sheet tools, if judged as credible by market participants, might require a smaller amount of asset purchases to provide a similar amount of accommodation as a quantity-based program purchasing longer-maturity securities.』
『Some of those participants noted that uncertainty regarding the neutral federal funds rate and regarding the effects of rate ceiling policies on future interest rates and inflation made it difficult to determine the appropriate level of the rate ceiling or when that ceiling should be removed; that maintaining a rate ceiling could result in an elevated level of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet or significant volatility in its size or maturity composition; or that managing longer-term interest rates might be seen as interacting with the federal debt management process.』
『By contrast, a majority of participants saw greater benefits in using balance sheet tools to cap shorter-term interest rates and reinforce forward guidance about the near-term path of the policy rate.』
ECBの議事要旨が出ておりますが、 [外部リンク] of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 23-24 October 2019
こ奴に関しては俺様的インスタント読みの手法か確立できていなくて、基本は『2. Governing Council’s discussion and monetary policy decisions』の『Monetary policy stance and policy considerations』を読めば良い筈なんですが、そこだけ読んでもイマイチワカランチ会長(結局執行部報告から読んでいかないと論点がイマイチ分からない場合が多々ある)だったりしましてうーんこのという感じなんですよね。
などと言いつつも結局今の所暫定的に行っているインスタント読みで『Monetary policy stance and policy considerations』の鑑賞なんぞを。なおこちらはインスタントとか言っても逆順読みとかそういうことはしませんです(のでインスタントという程でもない)。この小見出しの最初から参ります。
『With regard to the monetary policy stance, members widely shared the assessment provided by Mr Lane in his introduction.』
インスタント読みの障害はこれでして、結局前半の『1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options』で出ているレーン理事(ちなみに経済の方はクーレ理事)による説明というのを読まないとポイントがきちんと把握できない場合があって困るのよね。
『The package of measures decided at the Governing Council’s September monetary policy meeting had to a large extent preserved the highly favourable financial conditions prevailing in the period before that meeting, in part owing to the anticipation of further monetary policy easing.』
『This was seen as demonstrating that markets had well understood the “reaction function” of the Governing Council. Despite some upward movement at the front end of the yield curve since the September monetary policy meeting, taking a somewhat longer perspective, financial conditions had eased significantly since the Sintra conference in June this year.』
うーんこのという認識で、9月決定以降の市場の動きは「markets had well understood the “reaction function” of the Governing Council」ですとか言うのですが何でしょうこの違和感。まあ最後の「6月のシントラ(ドラギ発言)から見ると金融環境は顕著に緩和的になった」というのはその通りだと思いますけれども。
『It was underlined that the incoming information since the September monetary policy meeting had confirmed the pronounced slowdown in euro area economic growth and a continued shortfall of inflation with respect to the inflation aim, thus vindicating the monetary policy decisions taken by the Governing Council at that meeting.』
『There was wide agreement that more information would be needed to reassess the inflation outlook and the impact of the monetary policy measures, particularly given that some of the measures had yet to be implemented - notably the resumption of net asset purchases and the introduction of a two-tier system for reserve remuneration.』
『Therefore, the measures should be allowed more time to fully unfold their effects on the euro area economy and ultimately on inflation outcomes, taking into account the usual transmission lags of monetary policy.』
『Confidence was expressed that the comprehensive package of policy measures decided at the September meeting provided substantial monetary stimulus, which would contribute to a further easing in borrowing conditions for firms and households. This would support the euro area expansion, the ongoing build-up of domestic price pressures and, thus, the sustained convergence of inflation to the Governing Council’s medium-term inflation aim.』
と9月にぶっこみを決めた緩和パッケージ効果について自画自賛。
『Against this background, the members agreed with the proposal made by Mr Lane in his introduction to keep the monetary policy stance unchanged at the current meeting.』
ということで10月は現状維持で合意。
『This entailed confirming the resumption of net asset purchases under the Governing Council’s asset purchase programme at a monthly pace of ユーロ20 billion as from 1 November 2019 and reiterating the forward guidance on policy interest rates, net asset purchases and reinvestments.』
はい。
『There was broad agreement that monetary policy had to remain highly accommodative for an extended period of time in the face of a protracted weakness in the economy and subdued inflation developments.』
『Accordingly, it was important to fully implement the September monetary policy decisions. In this context, it was highlighted that the Governing Council’s forward guidance provided an important stabilisation function, as Mr Lane had pointed out in his introduction.』
ってフォワードガイダンスが重要な機能を果たすとか言っているんですが・・・・・・・・
『The strengthened state-based forward guidance decided at the September monetary policy meeting, which had more clearly tied the likely path of policy interest rates to inflation prospects, ensured that financial conditions would adjust in accordance with changes in the inflation outlook, thereby reinforcing the Governing Council’s commitment to achieving its inflation aim.』
『It was argued that the state-based nature of the forward guidance, which depended on a forward-looking component, whereby the inflation outlook had to be seen to converge robustly to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within the projection horizon, as well as on a backward-looking component, whereby the convergence of inflation had to be consistently reflected in the observed dynamics of underlying inflation, provided a clear guide to the Governing Council’s “reaction function”. 』
『Strong commitment by the Governing Council to providing the necessary policy stimulus was seen as important to ensure the sustained convergence of inflation to the Governing Council’s aim. Accordingly, it was vital for the Governing Council to remain prepared to act by using its full set of instruments if the inflation outlook so required.』
でもって、
『It was, however, cautioned that due account also had to be taken of the assessment of the possible side effects of monetary policy measures. At the same time, a plea was made for patience to allow the measures taken in September to work through the economy, supporting a “wait and see” posture at the current juncture.』
ってな話になりまして、緩和的な政策の維持というのは物凄い勢いで強調されているのですが、追加に何かするのかという話はこれまた全然無くて、“wait and see”でっせという事になっているという次第で、まあこちらもウゴカンチ会長で行くんでしょうなあ暫くは、とは思うのでした。副作用の点検するとかいうのもありますしね。
『As regards communication, members widely agreed with the proposals made by Mr Lane in his introduction.』
『It needed to be stressed that the September monetary policy package supported the sustained convergence of inflation towards the Governing Council’s aim, while noting that the transmission of the individual measures would take time to work its way through to growth and inflation dynamics.』
パッケージの各々が効いて行くそうな。
『At the same time, the Governing Council needed to forcefully reiterate its unwavering commitment to achieving its inflation aim and the need for a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy for a prolonged period of time to support underlying inflation pressures and headline inflation developments over the medium term.』
何か今回の議事要旨無駄にこの部分の繰り返しをしているように思えるけど何なんでしょ。
『In the light of the persistence of prominent downside risks surrounding the euro area outlook, it also needed to be emphasised that the Governing Council continued to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moved towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry.』
これは景気づけで言ってるけどすぐやるかというとその前に“wait and see”というパワーワードぶち込んでいるのではあそうですかそうですねってなもんで。
『Looking ahead, a strong call was made for unity of the Governing Council.』
『While it was underlined that open and frank discussions in the Governing Council were absolutely necessary and legitimate, it was regarded as important to form a consensus and to unite behind the Governing Council’s commitment to pursuing its inflation aim.』
『Furthermore, the call on other policymakers was reiterated, emphasising that they needed to contribute more decisively to supporting the euro area economy. In particular, fiscal policy, notably of governments with fiscal space, had to play a more prominent role to stabilise economic conditions in view of the weakening economic outlook and the continued prominence of downside risks.』
冒頭(最初は出席者名簿とかなのでその次ですが)の小見出し『Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices』という所です。
・フォワードガイダンスについて
最初にスタッフからのリサーチ結果的なものから始まるのですがこの部分だけでも色々と良い味わいがある。
『Committee participants continued their discussions related to the ongoing review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices.』
てな訳で始まり始まり。
『Staff briefings provided an assessment of a range of monetary policy tools that the Committee could employ to provide additional economic stimulus and bolster inflation outcomes, particularly in future episodes in which the policy rate would be constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB).』
『The staff first discussed policy rate tools, focusing on three forms of forward guidance-qualitative, which provides a nonspecific indication of the expected duration of accommodation; date-based, which specifies a date beyond which accommodation could start to be reduced; and outcome-based, which ties the possible start of a reduction of accommodation to the achievement of certain macroeconomic outcomes.』
『The briefing addressed communications challenges associated with each form of forward guidance, including the need to avoid conveying a more negative economic outlook than the FOMC expects.』
『Nonetheless, the staff suggested that forward guidance generally had been effective in easing financial conditions and stimulating economic activity in circumstances when the policy rate was above the ELB and when it was at the ELB.』
『The briefing also discussed negative interest rates, a policy option implemented by several foreign central banks.』
キタコレ。
『The staff noted that although the evidence so far suggested that this tool had provided accommodation in jurisdictions where it had been employed, there were also indications of possible adverse side effects.』
『Moreover, differences between the U.S. financial system and the financial systems of those jurisdictions suggested that the foreign experience may not provide a useful guide in assessing whether negative rates would be effective in the United States.』
[外部リンク] of the Federal Open Market Committee October 29-30, 2019
最初の方に、『Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices』とか『Review of Options for Repo Operations to Support Control of the Federal Funds Rate』とかいうような素敵な小見出しがあるのですが、そこを読んでいると沼に嵌って政策の所が読めなくなるので(というか嵌りかかった^^)涙を飲んで本日はパスしていつものようにインチキインスタント読みで『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』を逆順に読んで参りたいと思います。
#ということで逆順に読むからその点お含みおきを(平伏)
・逆順に読むので今後の政策スタンスに関する話が最初になりますサーセン
『With regard to monetary policy beyond this meeting, most participants judged that the stance of policy, after a 25 basis point reduction at this meeting, would be well calibrated to support the outlook of moderate growth, a strong labor market, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective and likely would remain so as long as incoming information about the economy did not result in a material reassessment of the economic outlook.』
『However, participants noted that policy was not on a preset course and that they would be monitoring the effects of the Committee's recent policy actions, as well as other information bearing on the economic outlook, in assessing the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.』
『A couple of participants expressed the view that the Committee should reinforce its postmeeting statement with additional communications indicating that another reduction in the federal funds rate was unlikely in the near term unless incoming information was consistent with a significant slowdown in the pace of economic activity.』
『Some participants favored maintaining the existing target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting. These participants suggested that the baseline projection for the economy remained favorable, with inflation expected to move up and stay near the Committee's 2 percent objective.』
『They also judged that policy accommodation was already adequate and, in light of lags in the transmission of monetary policy, preferred to take some time to assess the economic effects of the Committee's previous policy actions before easing policy further.』
『Several participants noted that downside risks had diminished over the intermeeting period and saw little indication that weakness in business sentiment was spilling over into labor markets and consumer spending.』
『A few participants raised the concern that a further easing of monetary policy at this meeting could encourage excessive risk-taking and exacerbate imbalances in the financial sector.』
『Many participants also cited the level of inflation or inflation expectations as justifying a reduction of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate at this meeting. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective, and inflationary pressures remained muted.』
『Several participants raised concerns that measures of inflation expectations remained low and could decline further without a more accommodative policy stance.』
『A couple of these participants, pointing to experiences in Japan and the euro area, were concerned that persistent inflation shortfalls could lead to a decline in longer-run inflation expectations and less room to reduce the federal funds rate in the event of a future recession.』
『In general, the participants who justified further easing at this meeting based on considerations related to inflation viewed this action as helping to move inflation up to the Committee's 2 percent objective on a sustained basis and to anchor inflation expectations at levels consistent with that objective.』
『Many participants continued to view the downside risks surrounding the economic outlook as elevated, further underscoring the case for a rate cut at this meeting.』
利下げしないと先行きのダウンサイドリスクが上がる、だそうな。
『In particular, risks to the outlook associated with global economic growth and international trade were still seen as significant despite some encouraging geopolitical and trade-related developments over the intermeeting period.』
『In light of these risks, a number of participants were concerned that weakness in business spending, manufacturing, and exports could spill over to labor markets and consumer spending and threaten the economic expansion.』
人数の表記に「a number of」もあったです(汗)、議事録と照合すればいいんですけど多分こういうの元中の人とかそういう方に聞くのが一番手っ取り早い(この手の表記は連綿と同じ意味にしておかないと議事要旨の意味をなさないので)んでしょうというか、解釈テーブルがちゃんとある筈ですし、アタクシも直ぐに忘却する(大汗)。
『A few participants observed that the considerations favoring easing at this meeting were reinforced by the proximity of the federal funds rate to the ELB.』
ナンジャソラ。
『In their view, providing adequate accommodation while still away from the ELB would best mitigate the possibility of a costly return to the ELB.』
『In their consideration of the monetary policy options at this meeting, most participants believed that a reduction of 25 basis points in the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate.』
ふむふむ。
『In discussing the reasons for such a decision, these participants continued to point to global developments weighing on the economic outlook, the need to provide insurance against potential downside risks to the economic outlook, and the importance of returning inflation to the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective on a sustained basis.』
はいはいインシャランスインシャランス。
『A couple of participants who were supportive of a rate cut at this meeting indicated that the decision to reduce the federal funds rate by 25 basis points was a close call relative to the option of leaving the federal funds rate unchanged at this meeting.』
しれっとお洒落な文言キタコレなのですが、利下げに賛成した参加者(メンバーではない、為念)のうち2名は、今回利下げするか現状維持にとどめるかの判断は「a close call」だったとかゆうとりまして、でもってこの後の書き方がああなっている(なのでこれ前から読むのと後ろから読むのでは印象が違うかも知れないとは思います)という事ですので、まあこりゃ意見がかなり割れる中で執行部が今回は押し切ったという印象を強くするのでありましたです、はい。
『Among those participants who commented on financial stability, most highlighted the risks associated with high levels of corporate indebtedness and elevated valuation pressures for a variety of risky assets.』
企業の過大債務と様々なリスキーな資産の価格に上昇圧力が掛かっているのが懸念されるとな。
『Although financial stability risks overall were seen as moderate, several participants indicated that imbalances in the corporate debt market had grown over the economic expansion and raised the concern that deteriorating credit quality could lead to sharp increases in risk spreads in corporate bond markets; these developments could amplify the effects of an adverse shock to the economy.』
クレジットバブルを警戒している、というのをこれでもかと表現。
『Several participants were concerned that some banks had reduced the sizes of their capital buffers at a time when they should be rising.』
『NICK TIMIRAOS. Thank you. Nick Timiraos with the Wall Street Journal. You described the recent slide, Chair Powell, in inflation expectations as “unwelcome.” You said that inflation expectations are “very important.” What, if anything, would the Committee be prepared to do to address this slide in inflation expectations if it continued?』
『CHAIR POWELL. So, as I mentioned, we do think that inflation expectations are-they’re quite essential, quite central in our framework of how we think about inflation. We need them to be anchored in a level?at a level that’s consistent with our symmetric 2 percent inflation goal. And we think that we need to conduct policy in a way that supports that outcome. That’s what we’re doing now.』
『We’re also, as part of our review, looking at potential innovations, changes to the way we think about things, changes to the framework that would lead us-that would be more supportive of achieving inflation on a 2 percent-on a symmetric 2 percent basis over time.』
原則論の後は話が変な方向に向かっておりまして・・・・・・・・・・・・・
『That’s at the very heart of what we’re doing in the review. It’s too early to be announcing decisions. We haven’t made them yet. But we’re in the middle of thinking about ways that we can make that symmetric 2 percent inflation objective more credible by achieving symmetric 2 percent inflation. And it comes down to using your policy tools to achieve 2 percent inflation, and that is the-that is the thing that must happen for credibility in this area. So we’re committed to doing that. 』
『NICK TIMIRAOS. How soon do you think that review might be announced to the public?』
すっかり相手のペースに乗ってしまっているんですがこちらの記者さん。
『CHAIR POWELL. So we’re in the middle-we’re really quite in the middle of it now, and my thinking is still that it will run into the middle of next year. These are-you know, these changes to monetary policy frameworks happen-they don’t happen really quickly, let’s say. Inflation targeting took many years to evolve. I don’t think we’ll take many years here. I think we’ll wrap it up around the middle of next year, would be my guess. I have some confidence in that. 』
『EDWARD LAWRENCE. Edward Lawrence of Fox Business. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for taking this. So how big of a change, then, to monetary policy would there be if you get some of that uncertainty cleared up-specifically, the phase-one China trade deal finished and USMCA ratified? How big of a change could that be to the monetary policy as it stands here, and could we see rate cuts next year-or, rate hikes next year? I’m sorry. 』
『EDWARD LAWRENCE. Yes, because I’ve heard the argument that trade’s causing the uncertainty. Uncertainty is keeping the prices low. I’ve heard that argument from a Fed president from one of the Districts. So you remove that uncertainty, prices, then, would naturally rise. So could there be a point, or how-I guess my question is, how big of an impact on monetary policy would removing that uncertainty be? 』
『CHAIR POWELL. Yes. So I would just say that a-if we were to have a sustained reduction in trade tensions-broad reduction in trade tensions and a resolution of these uncertainties, that would bode well for business sentiment, which is-trade uncertainty’s been weighing on business sentiment, in our judgment, in the judgment of many analysts. And, ultimately, it could affect activity.』
仮定法過去って奴ですな。
『I wouldn’t expect that the effects on activity or confidence would be immediate, or-would there be immediate effects in economic activity. I think it would take some time after the recent things, but I do think it would be quite positive over time.』
『You come back to the question of raising rates. So that’s really about inflation. And you know, we haven’t yet?we just touched 2 percent core inflation, to pick one measure-just touched it for a few months, and then we’ve fallen back. So I think we would need to see a really significant move up in inflation that’s persistent before we would consider raising rates to address inflation concerns.』
ただまあ背景には物価が「a really significant move up in inflation」となるような状況を見ていないというのがあるので利上げは急がんという話になっています。まあそう簡単にインフレがホイホイとスパークするような事にもならんとは思う(根拠はただの勘)ので大丈夫だとは思うのですが、どうもインシャランスな利下げの話をするときは海外不確実性を前面に出す一方で、正常化路線に戻すという時にはインフレ動向を全面に出してくるという感じになっている(まあインフレ目標政策だから正しいちゃあ正しいのだが)ということで、どうせ物価はそうホイホイ上がらんし、海外不確実性ガーの話は正直ジャッジメンタルというよりは何とでも言い張れる物件なので、これは要するに今のFEDが動く気無いというのを示しているということになりますわな、うんうん。
『VICTORIA GUIDA. On the Fed’s balance sheet-you all recently resumed purchases of Treasury bills, and I was just wondering, how long do you expect that to continue? And, given the fact that, you know, the repo operations-it seems like the Fed is having to increase the amount of liquidity-temporary liquidity that it’s injecting into the system. You know, do you still feel like it’s just-that there is not enough reserves in the system? Do you feel like you have a good sense of what’s going on there? 』
ビルの買入をいつまでやるんすかとかそんな質問ですが、
『CHAIR POWELL. Okay. So, on the “how long,” what we’ve said is that we expect bill purchases to continue at least into the second quarter of next year. And we’ve said that temporary open market operations we expect to continue, I think, at least until the end of January, I believe. Yes, through January.』
とこれは決定されている事項の話ですが、
『In terms of the causes, so there’s a lot of forensic work going on by us and by market participants and all kinds of analysts. And, you know, one thing is that we think we need reserves to be back up to the level-the minimum level of reserves that we can have during the various fluctuations that you see with reserves is something like $1.45 trillion or a little higher, and that’s the level in early September. So we’re going to be adding reserves to get back to that place. That’s one thing.』
『There are also-it may be-one thing that was surprising about the episode was that liquidity didn’t seem to flow as one might have expected. We had surveyed the banks carefully about what was their lowest comfortable level of reserves, and many banks that were well above that level did not take that excess cash and invest it in the repo market at much higher rates. They just-they didn’t do that, and so the question is why.』
『And are there things that we can do that would-adjustments that we could make that would allow liquidity to flow more easily in the system without in any way sacrificing safety and soundness or financial stability? So we’re looking at those. Those are not things that can happen that can really address the situation in the short term, but those are a range of things that we’re looking at as well. 』
『MICHAEL MCKEE. Michael McKee with Bloomberg Radio and Television. So I guess the question is, is this it? Do you consider rates to be accommodative enough now to achieve your goal of sustaining the expansion? And as far as global Wall Street’s primary question, what kind of change in the economy would cause you to reassess-some sort of significant deterioration in what?』
「is this it?」でマイケルジャクソン思い出したのですがついこの前だと思ってたのにもう10年前になるんですねMJ他界してから、と思いっきりビックリしてしまう(年寄りによくある現象ですサーセン)のはさておき、このThis is itは「これで利下げは最後」という意味と理解しておけばいいんですよね(前後の文脈から類推)?
一発目の質問という事もあるのかも知れませんがやたら説明が細かいパウエル議長の返し。
『CHAIR POWELL. So what we’ve said, to repeat, is that we see the current stance of policy as “likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook.”』
『And we say that, really, because both of the performance of the economy and the stance of policy.』
と来てから経済の話がおっぱじまりまして、
『The performance of the economy has been-particularly the household sector-has been strong, has been resilient, with low unemployment, attractive levels of job creation, wages moving up, labor force participation moving up, household confidence, and solid gains in many measures of consumer spending. The manufacturing sector, particularly manufacturing, and also investment and exports have been weaker. But, overall, we’ve seen moderate growth, a strong labor market, inflation moving up. We see the outlook as for more of the same. We also see the risks to the outlook as perhaps having moved in a positive direction over the course of this intermeeting period, although, some remain-some things remain to be seen. So that’s the economy. 』
『Turning to policy, we’ve moved the stance of policy over the course of the year to a more accommodative stance, and, after the cuts at the last three meetings, the federal funds rate is now in a range between 1-1/2 and 1-3/4 percent.』
で金融政策スタンスですがここまでは事実の話。
『We feel that policy is well positioned to support the outlook that I described. So you asked what it would take, you know, to move, and, as I mentioned, we’re going to be watching all factors, And if developments emerge that cause a material reassessment of our outlook, we would respond accordingly. But that’s what it would take: a material reassessment of our outlook.』
これ「必要ならば追加緩和」とは言っているものの、そこで「a material reassessment of our outlook」になったらと言っているうえに、重ねて「But that’s what it would take: a material reassessment of our outlook.」と「大事な事なので2度繰り返します」モードになっている訳で、どう見てもこれスッパリと追加利下げバイアスを外してきたという内容ですよね(って後からこんな話をしても時すでにお寿司ですかそうですかスイマセン)。
質問者の念押しがオモロイ。
『MICHAEL MCKEE. If I could follow up-if the markets decide that you need to cut rates again, will you be forced to follow?』
市場に追い込まれたらどうしますねんとかこれは良いイヤミ。
『CHAIR POWELL. We’ll be looking at a full range of data about the economy and about the risks to the outlook, and I’ve given you a sense of what our outlook is. It’s for moderate growth, a strong labor market, and inflation near our 2 percent objective. If something happens to cause us to materially reassess that outlook, that’s what would cause us to change our views on the appropriate stance of policy. 』
『HEATHER LONG. Hi, Heather Long from the Washington Post. You just said that the risks to the outlook are moving in a positive direction. I’m wondering if you could specify-is that on trade, or are there other matters? This morning we obviously learned that we’ve now had two quarters of contracting business investment, which would seem to be moving the outlook in the other direction. 』
『CHAIR POWELL. So, in terms of risks, what I was referring to there-the principal risks that we’ve been monitoring have been, really, slowing global growth and trade policy developments as well as muted inflation pressure.』
主なリスクはグローバル成長と貿易戦争とインフレ圧力が弱いことだそうな。
『So I was really referring there to trade developments.』
でもって今回(10/30)指摘しているのは貿易戦争のテンション。
『We have that phase-one potential agreement with China, which, if signed and put into effect, could have the effect of reducing trade tensions and reducing uncertainty, and that would bode well, we think, for business confidence and perhaps activity over time. So that has the potential for being an improvement in the risk picture. 』
第1弾合意とか言いつつこれがまた引っ張ってますけどまあそれは兎も角としまして、
『Brexit, I would say, as well-it appears that the risk of a no-deal Brexit seems to have materially declined. I think on both situations there’s plenty of risk left, but I’d have to say that the risks seem to have subsided.』
『You asked about business investment, and that’s right. Business investment has been weak, and today’s reading was weak as well. And it was broad across equipment and other parts of-all parts of business fixed investment were weak. That’s consistent with what we’ve seen, but that’s the economy we’ve had this year.』
企業の投資が調整局面なのは見通し通りなんですって。
『What we’ve had is an economy where the consumer is really driving growth, and, you know, personal consumption expenditures were almost 3 percent in this quarter-in this first reading for the quarter. So, overall, we see the economy as having been resilient to the-you know, the winds that have been blowing this year.』
返す刀で聞かれもしない個人消費が強いという話をして経済の強さを強調するという攻撃でして・・・・・・
『HEATHER LONG. Can I just follow up quickly? I mean, there’s this concern that I sometimes hear that, with business, businesses have cut investment, and are they going to turn around and cut employment? You know, sort of, if they continue to be concerned. Can you give a sense of how the Committee is thinking-thinking through that possibility? 』
『CHAIR POWELL. Yes, so that is a risk. That’s a risk that we’ve been monitoring, but we don’t see it yet. We don’t see rising initial claims or layoffs or anything like that. But the risk you mention of the weakness in the manufacturing-in export investment, business investment, parts of the economy getting into the consumer side of the economy, we really don’t see that.』
『What we continue to see is good job creation. Unemployment has declined again, and the household survey is now at a 50-year low-has been, you know, very close to 50-year lows for 18 months now. So it’s very positive. The consumer-facing companies that we talk to in our vast network of contacts report, you know, that consumers are doing well and are focused on, you know, the good job market and rising incomes, and that’s their principle focus. So that is the thing that’s pushing the economy forward, and it doesn’t seem to have been affected so far by weakness in the other areas. 』
『JEANNA SMIALEK. Jeanna Smialek from the New York Times. Thanks for taking our questions. So you’ve previously sort of compared this rate-cutting cycle to the insurance cuts in the ’90s, and in both of those instances, the Greenspan Fed took those cuts back after a while. They raised rates again fairly quickly. And I guess I’m just curious what the onus is for doing that in this cycle. What would make you guys decide it’s appropriate to raise interest rates again? 』
『CHAIR POWELL. So the reason why we raised interest rates is because-generally is because we see inflation as moving up-or, in danger of moving up significantly, and we really don’t see that now.』
『Inflation moved down in the first quarter of this year. We thought that that was due, to some extent, to idiosyncratic or transient factors. That turns out to have been the case, so it’s moved back up. But it seems to be settling in below 2 percent. So we really don’t see that risk.』
インフレが上がるリスクは見ていないとな。
『And inflation expectations have also kind of moved down and sideways-both surveys and market based over the course of this-of, really, the recent months. And, you know, we think that inflation expectations are very important in driving actual inflation, and we’re strongly committed to achieving our 2 percent inflation objective on a symmetric basis. We think it’s essential that we do that. 』
『So we’re not thinking about raising rates right now. There obviously will be times in the future where that will be appropriate. What we’re really thinking now is that our current stance of policy is appropriate and will remain so as long as the outlook is broadly in keeping with our expectations.』
『STEVE LIESMAN. Mr.-Steve Liesman, CNBC. Mr. Chairman, I’m-not to make light of it, but I’m a little bit-I wonder if you could help me out with the appropriate understanding of the word “appropriate” here.』
最近マジックワード化している「appropriate」についての質問というのは中々宜しい。
『 So the statement says that the Committee is going “to monitor the implications of incoming information for the outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range.” That tells me you could go either way. 』
『So how do I walk away from this, and what should we walk away from this believing what “appropriate” means? Are you on hold and need to be proved wrong that you should remain on hold, or is it, really, you could go either way here? Thank you.』
『CHAIR POWELL. So we think that the current stance of policy is likely to remain appropriate-likely to remain appropriate-as long as incoming information about the economy is broadly consistent with our outlook, which is a positive one of moderate economic growth, strong labor market, and inflation moving close to 2 percent. That’s-so that’s what we’re saying about that. We also say, of course, if developments emerge that cause a material reassessment of that outlook, we would respond accordingly. So that’s really how we’re thinking about it. I can’t point to one data point or one thing that would change our minds. It really-it would be a reassessment of-a material reassessment of our overall outlook, which is what I described.』
変に字義の話にしないで今後の政策スタンスについて今の所動かん話にしちゃってますな。でもってここでほほーと思ったのは、ちょうど昨日ネタにした先週末のウィリアムスの講演で「データディペンデントはデータポイントディペンデントではない」というのがありましたが、ここでもパウエルが「I can’t point to one data point or one thing that would change our minds.」って言ってて、何だちゃんと説明の統制が出来てるじゃん、と変なところで感心してしまいました。
『STEVE LIESMAN. I’m sorry, just to-why isn’t the phrase “likely to remain appropriate” in the statement if that’s the sense of the Committee? 』
『CHAIR POWELL. Well, there’s-there’s a lot of, you know, practice and science and history, in terms of how much you put in the actual postmeeting statement as opposed to what we say in the press conference statement. It’s a-you know, it’s a judgment call. You know, I’m saying it now, so- 』
『STEVE LIESMAN. Thanks. 』
だったら何でステートメントに“likely to remain appropriate” って入れないのという質問が飛びましたが、それに関しては議論の結果ステートメントには入れないでプレカンの冒頭説明で行うという話になった訳でして、ということで理解されたようですな。
