『In response to these developments, the Federal Reserve expended the remaining ammunition in the traditional arsenal of monetary policy, bringing the federal funds rate down, in steps, to a target range of 0 to 25 basis points by mid-December of last year.』
と、まずは利下げをしまして、資産買入に関する政策に関しては、
『It also took several measures to further supplement its traditional arsenal. In particular, on November 25, the Fed announced that it would purchase up to $100 billion of debt issued by the housing-related GSEs and up to $500 billion of agency-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities, programs that were expanded substantially and augmented by a program of purchases of Treasury securities in March.』
ということで。で、この政策目的ですが・・・・
『The goal of these purchases was to provide additional support to private credit markets, particularly the mortgage market.』
『Also on November 25, the Fed announced the creation of the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). This facility aims to improve the availability and affordability of credit for households and small businesses and to help facilitate the financing and refinancing of commercial real estate properties.』
『Foreign central banks also cut policy rates to very low levels and implemented unconventional monetary measures. For example, the Bank of Japan began purchasing commercial paper in December and corporate bonds in January. In March, the Bank of England announced that it would purchase government securities, commercial paper, and corporate bonds, and the Swiss National Bank announced that it would purchase corporate bonds and foreign currency. For its part, the ECB injected more than ?400 billion of one-year funds in a single auction in late June. In July, the ECB began purchasing covered bonds, which are bonds that are issued by financial institutions and guaranteed by specific asset pools. Actions by central banks augmented large fiscal stimulus packages in the United States, China, and a number of other countries.』
『On February 10, Treasury Secretary Geithner and the heads of the federal banking agencies unveiled the outlines of a new strategy for ensuring that banking institutions could continue to provide credit to households and businesses during the financial crisis. A central component of that strategy was the exercise that came to be known as the bank stress test.』
はいはい。
『Under this initiative, the banking regulatory agencies undertook a forward-looking, simultaneous evaluation of the capital positions of 19 of the largest bank holding companies in the United States, with the Treasury committing to provide public capital as needed.』
ふぉわーどるっきんぐなしみゅれーしょんですって??
『The goal of this supervisory assessment was to ensure that the equity capital held by these firms was sufficient--in both quantity and quality--to allow those institutions to withstand a worse-than-expected macroeconomic environment over the subsequent two years and yet remain healthy and capable of lending to creditworthy borrowers. This exercise, unprecedented in scale and scope, was led by the Federal Reserve in cooperation with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the FDIC. Importantly, the agencies' report made public considerable information on the projected losses and revenues of the 19 firms, allowing private analysts to judge for themselves the credibility of the exercise. Financial market participants responded favorably to the announcement of the results, and many of the tested banks were subsequently able to tap public capital markets.』
『Overall, the policy actions implemented in recent months have helped stabilize a number of key financial markets, both in the United States and abroad. Short-term funding markets are functioning more normally, corporate bond issuance has been strong, and activity in some previously moribund securitization markets has picked up.』
ということで、死亡寸前の市場を引き上げるという話ですな。市場機能市場機能。
『Stock prices have partially recovered, and U.S. mortgage rates have declined markedly since last fall. Critically, fears of financial collapse have receded substantially.』
『After contracting sharply over the past year, economic activity appears to be leveling out, both in the United States and abroad, and the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good.』
『Notwithstanding this noteworthy progress, critical challenges remain: Strains persist in many financial markets across the globe, financial institutions face significant additional losses, and many businesses and households continue to experience considerable difficulty gaining access to credit. Because of these and other factors, the economic recovery is likely to be relatively slow at first, with unemployment declining only gradually from high levels.』
ということで、底打ちしたとは言っても色々懸念はありますよと。
で、この講演ですが、第8-9パラグラフで「リーマンをこかしてAIGをこかさなかった理由」についてまあ苦しい言い訳をしているのとかが香ばしかったりするのとか、今引用した部分の次に『Interpreting the Crisis』という小見出しの部分があるのですけれども、こっちの話は主にリクイディティ供給の話が多くて、FEDビューVSBISビューみたいな観点は華麗にスルーしているのがチャーミングなのでありますが、それはまあ紹介するかもしれませんし、紹介しないかもしれませんです、はい。
『(2)について言えば、欧州では、銀行借入が企業の資金調達に占めるウエイトは90%程度と、40%程度である米国に比べて高くなっています。こうした状況を踏まえ、ECB は、金融機関の資金繰り支援や信用創出能力を回復させる政策手段を導入してきました。例えばカバードボンドの買入れについて、トリシェ総裁は、「enhanced credit support operation」と表現しています。』
で、これが微妙にチャーミングなのは、ここの部分の脚注に『金融面の不均衡の蓄積とマクロ経済環境についての詳しい議論については、Rajan [2006]、Bank for International Settlements [2009]をご参照ください。』とあることで、BISビューキタコレとかまた言いたくなる訳でございますな。
[外部リンク] Medium and long-dated gilt yields had increased by around 25 basis points during the course of the month.』
ということで中長期の国債金利は上昇したとな。
『But spreads between government bond yields and OIS rates had fallen markedly since the beginning of the year. This was in contrast to the United States and euro area, where central banks’purchases of government bonds had been smaller relative to the size of the outstanding stock.』
『6 Market expectations were for Bank Rate to remain unchanged at 0.5% for the rest of 2009, but for an increase beyond that horizon to around 1.5% by the middle of 2010.』
『The sterling effective exchange rate had appreciated by almost 3% on the month, and by 15% since the start of the year, although it remainedsome 20% below its mid-2007 level.』
これは英国ポンドの実効為替レートの話なのでスルー。
○更に政策効果に関してですが・・・・
途中を華麗にスルーして金融政策決定の論議をする第25パラグラフから。
『25 During the month, the Bank had met the MPC’s target for purchases of £125 billion of assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves. Although it remained too early to assess the full effect of the asset purchase programme, there were some promising signs that it was having a positive impact.』
『The United Kingdom had seen a large reduction in the spread between government bond yields and OIS rates by comparison with similar markets overseas. Corporate bond spreads had fallen, gross issuance had been strong, and the rate at which the Bank had been acquiring corporate bonds had slowed, consistent with a pickup in private investor demand.』
一方でまだまだ効果が足りないという話も。
『26 By contrast, another diagnostic for assessing the initial impact of the asset purchase programme, underlying broad money growth, had been surprisingly weak.』
肝心のマネー拡大が弱いですとな。
『To some extent, however, that might have reflected the impact of institutional investors’ acquisition of banking sector assets, which should,in time, encourage greater bank lending. It might also reflect companies using the proceeds of capital market issuance to pay off bank debt. But this would still be consistent with the asset purchase programme boosting nominal demand.』
『28 In Inflation Report months, the Committee considered the likely future evolution of the economy through the analysis and discussion of its quarterly projections for GDP growth and CPI inflation.』
『Those projections suggested that, without a greater monetary stimulus than embodied in the combination of implied market expectations for Bank Rate and the current £125 billion scale of the MPC’s asset purchase programme, nominal demand would likely be insufficient to prevent inflationremaining below the 2% target, perhaps substantially, throughout the forecast period.』
『The publication of such a projection might cause market participants to re-evaluate the likely path of Bank Rate and the market yield curve to fall. That could provide an additional stimulus to current activity, and lessen the need for further asset purchases. But such an effect was far from guaranteed.』
ほほう。で、次のパラグラフ。
『29 The projections indicated that an increase in asset purchases of £50 billion would probably need to be combined with a lower path of Bank Rate than implied by market yields to balance the risks of inflation around the 2% target in the medium term. Assuming that Bank Rate followed the pathimplied by prevailing market yields, a larger increase in the scale of the asset purchase programme was likely to be necessary to counterbalance the risk that inflation would fall short of the target.』
『Insufficiently stimulatory monetary policy would cause inflation to remain below the target for a sustained period of time, depressing inflation expectations, and might harm public confidence in the recovery causing it to falter.』
『Confidence in the efficacy of monetary policy might also be damaged, limiting policymakers’ ability to stimulate the economy in future.』
『In addition, if it became apparent that monetary policy had been overly expansive, policy could be tightened by a combination of asset sales and increases in Bank Rate.』
『31 But there were also arguments for a more moderate expansion of the programme, given that some of the most immediate downside risks to the economy seemed to have receded.』
『The channels through which large-scale asset purchases affected the economy, and the magnitude and speed of those effects, were uncertain. The substantial injections of liquidity into the economy might result in unwarranted increases in some asset prices that could prove costly to rectify or in inflation expectations moving upwards.』
効果が効いてきたときの速度も判らんし、そもそもそれで資産価格無駄に上昇しやせんですかという話も。
『Moreover, if the asset purchases proved to be more effective than anticipated, an early withdrawal of some of the monetary stimulus might prompt a sharp rise in market interest rates that was unwarranted by the economic outlook.』
で、議論の最後の方になります。
『32 There was a range of views amongst the Committee over the precise balance of risks to the outlook for inflation and how much significance to ascribe to the various arguments about the appropriate policy response to that outlook, although all members agreed that substantial further assetpurchases were needed over the next three months.』
でもって、
『For most members, an increase in the size of the asset purchase programme of £50 billion to a total of £175 billion was warranted, while for others there was a case for a larger stimulus.』
となったのですが、もっと多いほうが良いと主張したのはその次にありますが、(the Governor, Tim Besley and David Miles)の3名でありました。
で、7月会合議事要旨なんですけどね。 [外部リンク] P 買入れは3 月以降大幅な札割れとなっているが、安全弁として資金調達に対する安心感を与える役割を引き続き果たしていると指摘した。また、ある委員は、C P 買入れの大幅な減少などにみられるように、これらの措置の必要性は大きく低下しているが、現時点では、措置を取り止めることに伴う心理面への負の効果は無視できないと述べた。』
『この間、何人かの委員は、企業金融支援特別オペに関し、高格付C P の発行金利が国庫短期証券の金利を下回る副作用をもたらしている可能性はあるが、当オペの見直しや終了については、部分的な影響や副作用だけではなく、金融市場・企業金融全体の状況やこれに与える影響を踏まえて判断していくことが大事であると述べた。』
[外部リンク] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity is leveling out. 』(今回) 『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the pace of economic contraction is slowing.』(前回)
はいはい底打ち底打ち。
『Conditions in financial markets have improved further in recent weeks. Household spending has continued to show signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but are making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales.』(今回)
『Conditions in financial markets have generally improved in recent months. Household spending has shown further signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but appear to be making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. 』(前回)
『Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.』(今回)
『The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.』(今回)
これまた前回と全文一致。うーむ・・・・・・
・と言うわけで肝心の金融政策
ここはあまり前回と比較する話では無いので今回分を読みつつ。
『In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability.』
まあここは毎度のお約束のような文章。
『The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.』
『As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year.』
ここの所も変化無しですわな。またまた全文一致(^^)。
『In addition, the Federal Reserve is in the process of buying $300 billion of Treasury securities.』
なのですが・・・・・
『To promote a smooth transition in markets as these purchases of Treasury securities are completed, the Committee has decided to gradually slow the pace of these transactions and anticipates that the full amount will be purchased by the end of October.』
10月以降はどうするとは言ってませんが、まあ買入ペースを落としてその分期限を1か月延長しますという言い方ですし、smooth transition in marketsをするって言ってますので、これはまあ長期国債買入フェードアウトですよという普通の解釈で無問題でしょうな。
『The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.』
ということで、相変わらずの下振れリスクのオンパレード。月曜にご紹介したECBの「Overall, the risks to this outlook remain balanced.」「Risks to the outlook for inflation are broadly balanced.」とかいう端から見てるとナントカ蛇に怖じずと申し上げさせて頂きたくなるようなリスクバランス認識とは大違いなのでございます。
んでまあECBなんですけど。 [外部リンク] me now explain our assessment in further detail, starting with the economic analysis. The data and survey information that have become available since our meeting on 2 July 2009 have broadly confirmed our previous expectations.』
『While uncertainty is still high, there are increasingly signs that the global recession is bottoming out. As regards the euro area, recent surveys suggest that the pace of contraction is clearly slowing down. However, economic activity over the remainder of this year is expected to remain weak.』
『Looking ahead into next year, after a phase of stabilisation, a gradual recovery with positive quarterly growth rates is expected. The significant policy stimuli in all major economic areas should support growth globally, including in the euro area.』
ということで、金融財政の刺激策により景気回復基調へと。
んで第5、6パラグラフに物価の話が。
『With regard to price developments, annual HICP inflation was, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, -0.6 % in July, compared with -0.1% in June. This further decline in annual rates of inflation was anticipated and reflects primarily base effects resulting from the peaks observed in global commodity prices a year ago.』
『Looking ahead, owing to these base effects, annual inflation rates are projected to remain temporarily in negative territory, before turning positive again later this year. However, such short-term movements are not relevant from a monetary policy perspective.』
ちゅうことで、足元の物価下落は一時的要因によるもので、デフレ圧力ではございませんとな。
○リスクはバランス
日銀のように先行きのリスクを全部悪化方向で見ているのとはだいぶ違います。
第4パラグラフから。
『In the view of the Governing Council, uncertainty remains high and we have to be prepared for ongoing volatility in incoming data. Overall, the risks to this outlook remain balanced.』
ということで、景気に関する上下のリスクがバランスとな。
『On the upside, there may be stronger than anticipated effects stemming from the extensive macroeconomic stimulus being provided and from other policy measures taken. Confidence may also improve more quickly than currently expected.』
『On the downside, concerns remain relating to a stronger or more protracted negative feedback loop between the real economy and the turmoil in financial markets, renewed increases in oil and other commodity prices, the intensification of protectionist pressures, more unfavourable than expected labour market conditions and, lastly, adverse developments in the world economy stemming from a disorderly correction of global imbalances.』
『Risks to the outlook for inflation are broadly balanced. They relate, in particular, to the outlook for economic activity and to higher than expected commodity prices. Furthermore, increases in indirect taxation and administered prices may be stronger than currently expected owing to the need for fiscal consolidation in the coming years.』
ということでインフレリスクもバランスとな。
○出口政策に関して
第12パラグラフなんですけどね。
『As the transmission of monetary policy works with lags, our policy action should progressively feed through to the economy in full. Hence, with all the measures taken, including our covered bond purchases, monetary policy will provide ongoing support for households and corporations.』
金融政策の効果浸透には時間が掛かるのでという話が来ました。
『Once the macroeconomic environment improves, the Governing Council will take care that the measures taken are quickly unwound and that the ample liquidity provided is absorbed.』
『Hence, any threat to price stability over the medium to longer term will be effectively countered in a timely fashion. The Governing Council will continue to ensure a firm anchoring of medium-term inflation expectations. Such anchoring is indispensable to supporting sustainable growth and employment and contributes to financial stability. Accordingly, we will continue to monitor very closely all developments over the period ahead.』
『The declining pace of monetary expansion since the last quarter of 2008 continues to be accompanied by volatility in the short-term developments of M3 and its components. This reflects to a large extent the impact that absolute and relative changes in interest rates have had on the allocation of funds between financial investments inside and outside M3 and between the different deposit categories within M3.』
『In this respect, the shift in allocation from short-term time deposits to overnight deposits within M3 has led to a further substantial strengthening of annual M1 growth in June. 』
