[外部リンク] Federal Reserve Board on Monday proposed amendments to Regulation D (Reserve Requirements of Depository Institutions) that would enable the establishment of a term deposit facility.』
『Under the proposal, the Federal Reserve Banks would offer interest-bearing term deposits to eligible institutions through an auction mechanism. Term deposits would be one of several tools that the Federal Reserve could employ to drain reserves to support the effective implementation of monetary policy. 』
資金吸収手段の一環として導入しますとな。
『This proposal is one component of a process of prudent planning on the part of the Federal Reserve and has no implications for monetary policy decisions in the near term.』
『Public comments will be accepted on the proposal for 30 days after publication in the Federal Register, which is expected shortly. The Federal Register notice is attached.』
The Federal Reserve has addressed the financial market turmoil of the past two years in part by greatly expanding its balance sheet and by supplying an unprecedented volume of reserves to the banking system. Term deposits could be part of the Federal Reserve’s tool kit to drain reserves, if necessary, and thus support the implementation of monetary policy.』
『Term deposits would be distinct from balances held by eligible institutions in their master accounts. Term deposits could not be withdrawn prior to maturity, would not satisfy required reserve balances or contractual clearing balances, and would not be available to clear payments or cover daylight or overnight overdrafts. Term deposits would, however, be eligible to collateralize discount window advances.』
『例えば、欧州中央銀行は、中期(medium-term)という言葉を使っています。米国は、中長期の最終的に望ましい状態に対応する見通しを発表していますが、その期間は、大体5〜6年というかたちで出しています。英国は、妥当な期間(within reasonable time period)と書いています。いずれにせよ、多くの中央銀行に共通していることは、物価安定はもちろん大事なのですが、しかし物価安定だけ、足許の物価だけをみて、短期的に政策運営することは適切ではないということです。』
[外部リンク] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. 』(今回)
『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up. 』(前回)
『The housing sector has shown some signs of improvement over recent months. Household spending appears to be expanding at a moderate rate, though it remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment, though at a slower pace, and remain reluctant to add to payrolls; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. 』(今回)
『Activity in the housing sector has increased over recent months. Household spending appears to be expanding but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales.』(前回)
企業の方は同じ文章になっていますが、住宅セクターと個人消費支出に関する文言は改善されていますな。ただまあこちらでは労働市場に関しては「a weak labor market, modest income growth」という認識を示していますので、あくまでも「悪化が和らいだ」という程度の認識である、という事で、そう簡単にホイホイと利上げモードになるかというと、それには雇用関連の持ち直し傾向の定着が明確になってこないと厳しいんじゃないかという所なんでしょうかね。よー知らんが。
・金融環境に関して
『 Financial market conditions have become more supportive of economic growth.』(今回)
『Conditions in financial markets were roughly unchanged, on balance, over the intermeeting period. 』(前回)
何気に改善してねえか。
・第1パラグラフのまとめ部分
『Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.』(今回)
『Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.』(前回)
今回「contribute to a strengthening」となってる部分が前回は「support a strengthening」となっているのは前進しているように見えますが。
・インフレに関しては前回と同じ
第2パラグラフは毎度毎度同じ文言を続けているので引用だけ。
『With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time. 』(今回)
・例の文言は同じですが
んで第3パラグラフ。
『The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.』(今回)
『In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability.』(前回)
『To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve is in the process of purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of these purchases, and it anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010. 』(今回)
以下その手の話が続くのでありますが、
『The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. 』(今回)
『In light of ongoing improvements in the functioning of financial markets, the Committee and the Board of Governors anticipate that most of the Federal Reserve’s special liquidity facilities will expire on February 1, 2010, consistent with the Federal Reserve’s announcement of June 25, 2009. 』(今回)
1.Where is the economy headed? 2.What has the Federal Reserve been doing to support the economy and the financial system? 3.Will the Federal Reserve's actions lead to higher inflation down the road? 4.How can we avoid a similar crisis in the future?
FAQの2番部分を引用しましたけど、今日は3番の所を。
『The scope and scale of our actions, however, while necessary and helpful in my view, have left some uneasy. In all, our asset purchases and lending have caused the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to more than double, from less than $900 billion before the crisis began to about $2.2 trillion today. Unprecedented balance sheet expansion and near-zero overnight interest rates raise our third frequently asked question: Will the Federal Reserve's actions to combat the crisis lead to higher inflation down the road?』
『The answer is no; the Federal Reserve is committed to keeping inflation low and will be able to do so.』
そらまあYesだったら大変な話になりますから(^^)。で、何でインフレ抑制できるかという話が続く。
『In the near term, elevated unemployment and stable inflation expectations should keep inflation subdued, and indeed, inflation could move lower from here. However, as the recovery strengthens, the time will come when it is appropriate to begin withdrawing the unprecedented monetary stimulus that is helping to support economic activity.』
『For that reason, we have been giving careful thought to our exit strategy. We are confident that we have all the tools necessary to withdraw monetary stimulus in a timely and effective way.』
『Indeed, our balance sheet is already beginning to adjust, because improving financial conditions are leading to substantially reduced use of our lending facilities. The balance sheet will also shrink over time as the mortgage-backed securities and other assets we hold mature or are prepaid. However, even if our balance sheet stays large for a while, we will be able to raise our target short-term interest rate--which is the rate at which banks lend to each other overnight--and thus tighten financial conditions appropriately.』
『Operationally, an important tool for adjusting the stance of monetary policy will be the authority, granted to us by the Congress last year, to pay banks interest on balances they hold at the Federal Reserve. When the time comes to raise short-term interest rates and thereby tighten policy, we can do so by raising the rate that we offer banks on their balances with us. Banks will be unwilling to make overnight loans to each other at a rate lower than the rate that they can earn risk-free from the Fed, and so the interest rate we pay on banks' balances will tend to set a floor below our target overnight loan rate and other short-term interest rates.』
『Additional upward pressure on short-term interest rates can be achieved by measures to reduce the supply of funds that banks have available to lend to each other. We have a number of tools to accomplish this. For example, through the use of a short-term funding method known as reverse repurchase agreements, we can act directly to reduce the quantity of reserves held by the banking system. By paying a slightly higher rate of interest, we could induce banks to lock up their balances in longer-term accounts with us, making those balances unavailable for lending in the overnight market. And, if necessary, we always have the option of reducing the size of our balance sheet by selling some of our securities holdings on the open market.』
リバースレポを使って吸収するという話はまあ良いとして、資産売却に関してはさすがに大技に過ぎるという認識になっているようで、最後の一文にあるように、And, if necessary, we always have the option of reducing the size of our balance sheet by selling some of our securities holdings on the open market.という言い方で政策手段としては最終兵器扱いになっているっぽいのでちょっと安心。
で、この部分の最後のパラグラフが何気に良いネタ。
『As always, the most difficult challenge for the Federal Open Market Committee will not be devising the technical means of unwinding monetary stimulus.』
『Rather, it will be the challenge that faces central banks in every economic recovery, which is correctly judging the best time to tighten policy.』
適切な引き締めのタイミングが難しいと。
『Because monetary policy affects the economy with a lag, we will need to base our decision on our best forecast of how the economy will develop.』
引き締めのタイミングはフォワードルッキングで、と仰っているように読めますが(^^)。
『As I said a few moments ago, we currently expect inflation to remain subdued for some time. It is also reassuring that longer-term inflation expectations appear stable. Nevertheless, we will keep a close eye on inflation risks and will do whatever is necessary to meet our mandate to foster both price stability and maximum employment.』
1.Where is the economy headed? 2.What has the Federal Reserve been doing to support the economy and the financial system? 3.Will the Federal Reserve's actions lead to higher inflation down the road? 4.How can we avoid a similar crisis in the future?
『The Federal Reserve has been, and still is, doing a great deal to foster financial stability and to spur recovery in jobs and economic activity. Notably, we began the process of easing monetary policy in September 2007, shortly after the crisis began. By mid-December 2008, our target rate was effectively as low as it could go--within a range of 0 to 1/4 percent, compared with 5-1/4 percent before the crisis--and we have maintained that very low rate for the past year.』
とは政策金利引き下げのお話。
『Our efforts to support the economy have gone well beyond conventional monetary policy, however. I have already alluded to the Federal Reserve's close cooperation with the Treasury, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and other domestic and foreign authorities in a concerted and ultimately successful effort to stabilize the global banking system, which verged on collapse following the extraordinary events of September and October 2008.』
『We subsequently took strong measures, independently or in conjunction with other agencies, to help normalize key financial institutions and credit markets disrupted by the crisis. Among these were the money market mutual fund industry, in which large numbers of American households, businesses, and municipalities make short-term investments; and the commercial paper market, which many firms tap to finance their day-to-day operations. We also established and subsequently expanded special arrangements with other central banks to provide dollars to global funding markets, as we found that disruptions in dollar-based markets abroad were spilling over to our own markets. 』
『More recently, we have played an important part in helping to re-start the markets for asset-backed securities that finance auto loans, credit card loans, small business loans, student loans, loans to finance commercial real estate, and other types of credit. By working to revive these markets, which allow banks to tap the broader securities markets to finance their lending, we have helped banks make room on their balance sheets for new credit to households and businesses.』
『In addition, we have supported the overall functioning of private credit markets and helped to lower interest rates on bonds, mortgages, and other loans by purchasing unprecedented volumes of mortgage-related securities and Treasury debt.』
『In all of these efforts, our objective has not been to support specific financial institutions or markets for their own sake. Rather, recognizing that a healthy economy requires well-functioning financial markets, we have moved always with the single aim of promoting economic recovery and economic opportunity. In that respect, our means and goals have been fully consistent with the traditional functions of a central bank and with the mandate given to the Federal Reserve by the Congress to promote price stability and maximum employment.』
