[外部リンク] its role as liquidity provider of last resort, the Federal Reserve developed a number of programs to provide well-secured, mostly short-term credit to the financial system. These programs, which imposed no cost on taxpayers, were a critical part of the government’s efforts to stabilize the financial system and restart the flow of credit to American families and businesses.』
no cost on taxpayerというのは端折り過ぎ(2月の証言の時にはもう少し丁寧に説明してて、担保も沢山取って結果としてはコストも掛かりませんでしたという話になってましたが)ではないかと思うのですが、まあこの辺りは議会対策なんでしょうなあという感じです。折に触れて政策効果の中でAmerican families and businessesの金融環境を改善して助けるというフレーズが出てくるのがチャーミング。
『The second part of the Federal Reserve’s response to the crisis and recession, besides the provision of liquidity to the financial system, involves both standard and less conventional forms of monetary policy. After reducing short-term interest rates nearly to zero, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) provided additional monetary policy stimulus through large-scale purchases of Treasury securities, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and agency debt.』
『The Federal Reserve’s purchases have had the effect of leaving the banking system highly liquid, with U.S. banks now holding more than $1.1 trillion of reserves with Federal Reserve Banks. A range of evidence suggests that these purchases and the associated creation of bank reserves have helped improve conditions in mortgage markets and other private credit markets and put downward pressure on longer-term private borrowing rates and spreads.』
[外部リンク] Federal Reserve's purchases have had the effect of leaving the banking system highly liquid, with U.S. banks now holding more than $1.1 trillion of reserves with Federal Reserve Banks. A range of evidence suggests that these purchases and the associated creation of bank reserves have helped improve conditions in mortgage markets and other private credit markets and put downward pressure on longer-term private borrowing rates and spreads.』
『At its meeting last week, the FOMC maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and indicated that it continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. 』
というのと、最後のパラグラフに
『The economy continues to require the support of accommodative monetary policies.』
[外部リンク] contacts of the Bank’s Agents reported that a combination of credit constraints, weak cash flows and uncertainty about the economic outlook had made them wary of cutting prices so far.』(3月のBOEのMPC議事要旨の第20パラグラフより)
ジャネット姐さんの講演が途中でしたのでその続きを少々。 [外部リンク] should warn that there is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding this forecast. In the past, a given level of economic growth produced a more-or-less predictable change in the unemployment rate. Historically, a pattern emerged in which unemployment declined by half as much as the difference in the growth rates of actual and potential GDP.』
『Let me sketch out how this should work. In my forecast, GDP growth exceeds the growth rate of potential GDP by 1 percentage point this year and 2 percentage points next year. According to Okun’s law, the unemployment rate should fall by about one-half percentage point by the end of this year and a full percentage point during 2011. These figures are in line with my unemployment forecast.』
でも、2009年のGDP推移と失業率の急上昇の説明がオークン則だとつかないという話です。
『However, Okun’s law let us down big-time in 2009. Given that GDP was stagnant last year, the unemployment rate should have gone up by about 1-1/4 percentage points, according to Okun’s law. In fact, it shot up 3 percentage points. Understanding what happened last year has important implications for what unemployment does in the future.』(機種依存文字部分を改変しました、1.25%の所ね)
『There is an alternative explanation regarding the events of last year though that bodes poorly for rapid employment gains going forward. According to this view, last year’s large increase in productivity is here to stay. In that case, we won’t see a quick drop in unemployment and may be in for a jobless recovery akin to those in the early 1990s and early 2000s. This is closer to my view and broadly consistent with my forecast.』
ということで、イエレンさんは今次回復においてもジョブレスリカバリーを展望しているようでございます。
『According to this perspective, the recession has forced businesses to reexamine just about everything they do with an eye toward restraining costs and boosting efficiency. Strapped by tight credit and plummeting sales, businesses have overhauled the way they manage supply chains, inventory, production practices, and staffing. Stores don’t order merchandise unless they think they can sell it right away. Manufacturers and builders don’t produce unless they have buyers lined up.』
『My business contacts describe this as a paradigm shift and they believe it’s permanent. This process of implementing new efficiency gains may have only begun and we may be in store for further efficiency improvements and high productivity growth for some time. If so, the rate of job creation will be frustratingly slow.』
どちらかと言うと岡目八目じゃないけど、日本の人達の方が今回for an extended periodが外れるとは予想してなかったんじゃないかなあと思うのだが、報道ベースでの反応を見ると米国市場ってマジでリスクとして認識してたのかよという感じですが、確かに微妙な部分で微妙にアレな所もあったり無かったりという感じの声明文だったりするのですよね。
今回の声明 [外部リンク] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is stabilizing. 』(今回)
『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. 』(前回)
労働市場が安定してきているに改善しとりますのう。でもってその後もこんな感じだす。
『Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. 』(今回)
『Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.』(前回)
『Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly. However, investment in nonresidential structures is declining, housing starts have been flat at a depressed level, and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. 』(今回)
『Business spending on equipment and software appears to be picking up, but investment in structures is still contracting and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Firms have brought inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. 』(前回)
『Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability. 』(今回)
『With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.』(今回)
『The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.』(今回)
『To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve has been purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt; those purchases are nearing completion, and the remaining transactions will be executed by the end of this month.』(今回)
『The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.』(今回)
『The Committee will continue to evaluate its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets.』(前回)
『In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve has been closing the special liquidity facilities that it created to support markets during the crisis. The only remaining such program, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, is scheduled to close on June 30 for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities and on March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral.』(今回)
でもって今回消えた文言は
『The Federal Reserve is prepared to modify these plans if necessary to support financial stability and economic growth.』(前回)
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh. 』(今回)
で、ホーニッグさんの反対票ですが、今回はその反対理由がより強いトーンになっています。
『Thomas M. Hoenig, who believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted because it could lead to the buildup of financial imbalances and increase risks to longer-run macroeconomic and financial stability. 』(今回)
『Voting against the policy action was Thomas M. Hoenig, who believed that economic and financial conditions had changed sufficiently that the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted.』(前回)
前回は「『経済および金融の環境は十分に改善したので』FF金利をfor an extended periodにexceptionally low levelsとする事は既に正当化されない」という言い方でしたが、今回に関しては「FF金利をfor an extended periodにexceptionally low levelsとすると『金融の不均衡や長期的なマクロ経済や金融環境の安定に対するリスクを拡大する』」と要するにバブル懸念という意味だと思いますが、まあ反対のトーンがかなり強くなっていますな。
[外部リンク] is an alternative explanation regarding the events of last year though that bodes poorly for rapid employment gains going forward. According to this view, last year’s large increase in productivity is here to stay. In that case, we won’t see a quick drop in unemployment and may be in for a jobless recovery akin to those in the early 1990s and early 2000s. This is closer to my view and broadly consistent with my forecast.』
『According to this perspective, the recession has forced businesses to reexamine just about everything they do with an eye toward restraining costs and boosting efficiency.』
『Strapped by tight credit and plummeting sales, businesses have overhauled the way they manage supply chains, inventory, production practices, and staffing. Stores don’t order merchandise unless they think they can sell it right away. Manufacturers and builders don’t produce unless they have buyers lined up.』
『My business contacts describe this as a paradigm shift and they believe it’s permanent. This process of implementing new efficiency gains may have only begun and we may be in store for further efficiency improvements and high productivity growth for some time. If so, the rate of job creation will be frustratingly slow.』
[外部リンク] the dismal economic news we faced for so long, it’s a great relief for me to report that the tide appears to have turned. We are seeing convincing evidence that an economic recovery is well under way. Still, as I’ll explain in greater detail in a few minutes, the fact that the economy is growing again doesn’t mean we’re where we ought to be. Far from it. In particular, the unemployment rate is unacceptably high, creating real hardship for millions of Americans. But, at least we’re heading in the right direction.』
ということで、景気に関しては回復傾向にありますという話はしていますけれども、そんなに力強いものではないという事でして、特に失業率に関してunemployment rate is unacceptably highだそうですな。
『On that front, the most recent data show consumers releasing somewhat their tight grips on their wallets. But that doesn’t mean that people have thrown caution to the wind and returned to their spendthrift ways.』
『Indeed, my business contacts tell me the consumer mindset is still in a fragile state. Clearly, the big weight hanging over everyone’s heads is jobs.』
『Existing home sales surged late last year in response to the homebuyer tax credit. But, the credit expires this spring, so this source of support won’t be around much longer. The housing sector has also been benefiting from the Fed’s policy of buying mortgage-backed securities. These purchases appear to have helped keep home finance rates low. But, the Fed is now in the process of tapering off these purchases and plans to stop them at the end of March.』
んでもって、懸念の部分は以下の文。
『As support from Federal Reserve and other government programs phases out, there is a risk that the housing market could weaken again.』
『Even for those businesses ready to expand?especially smaller ones?financing remains an impediment. Credit is becoming more available, but terms such as collateral requirements can be onerous.』
『What’s more, the crisis made businesses keenly aware that they can’t count on being able to get credit. Some of my contacts say they plan to keep more cash on hand, rather than investing it, as protection against a renewed credit crunch.』
『In addition to some of the weak spots I already mentioned, a number of other factors are holding back recovery. 』
ということなのですが。
『First, even though the banking and financial systems are gaining strength, they still bear wounds from the financial crisis, and these will take a long time to fully heal.』
『Second, losses on mortgages, commercial real estate credits, and other loans continue to mount, and the full weight of foreclosures and bank failures on the economy has yet to be felt.』
『That’s because we can’t push interest rates below the near-zero level where they’ve been for more than a year. To be sure, we’ve developed many innovative programs to make credit cheaper and more readily available. But, all in all, monetary policy can’t give the same kick to the economy that it delivered in past recoveries.』
『Nonetheless, given my forecast of moderate growth and a shrinking, but still sizable, output gap, I expect unemployment to remain painfully high for years. The rate should edge down from its current level to about 9-1/4 percent by the end of this year and still be about 8 percent by the end of 2011, a far cry from full employment.』(機種依存文字があったので改変しました。9-1/4の所ね)
『Although the federal funds rate is likely to remain exceptionally low for an extended period, as the expansion matures, the Federal Reserve will at some point need to begin to tighten monetary conditions to prevent the development of inflationary pressures. Notwithstanding the substantial increase in the size of its balance sheet associated with its purchases of Treasury and agency securities, we are confident that we have the tools we need to firm the stance of monetary policy at the appropriate time.』
『Most importantly, in October 2008 the Congress gave statutory authority to the Federal Reserve to pay interest on banks' holdings of reserve balances at Federal Reserve Banks. By increasing the interest rate on reserves, the Federal Reserve will be able to put significant upward pressure on all short-term interest rates. Actual and prospective increases in short-term interest rates will be reflected in turn in longer-term interest rates and in financial conditions more generally. 』
『The Federal Reserve has also been developing a number of additional tools to reduce the large quantity of reserves held by the banking system, which will improve the Federal Reserve's control of financial conditions by leading to a tighter relationship between the interest rate paid on reserves and other short-term interest rates.』
[外部リンク] the recession officially began more than two years ago, U.S. economic activity contracted particularly sharply following the intensification of the global financial crisis in the fall of 2008. Concerted efforts by the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, and other U.S. authorities to stabilize the financial system, together with highly stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, helped arrest the decline and are supporting a nascent economic recovery.』
良く見たらここでも金融緩和の成果って話をしてるのね(^^)。
『Indeed, the U.S. economy expanded at about a 4 percent annual rate during the second half of last year. A significant portion of that growth, however, can be attributed to the progress firms made in working down unwanted inventories of unsold goods, which left them more willing to increase production. As the impetus provided by the inventory cycle is temporary, and as the fiscal support for economic growth likely will diminish later this year, a sustained recovery will depend on continued growth in private-sector final demand for goods and services. 』
『The job market has been hit especially hard by the recession, as employers reacted to sharp sales declines and concerns about credit availability by deeply cutting their workforces in late 2008 and in 2009. Some recent indicators suggest the deterioration in the labor market is abating: Job losses have slowed considerably, and the number of full-time jobs in manufacturing rose modestly in January. Initial claims for unemployment insurance have continued to trend lower, and the temporary services industry, often considered a bellwether for the employment outlook, has been expanding steadily since October.』
とまあここまでは明るい話をしているのですが・・・
『Notwithstanding these positive signs, the job market remains quite weak, with the unemployment rate near 10 percent and job openings scarce.』
労働市場の現状は極めて弱いと。
『Of particular concern, because of its long-term implications for workers\' skills and wages, is the increasing incidence of long-term unemployment; indeed, more than 40 percent of the unemployed have been out of work six months or more, nearly double the share of a year ago.』
『Over the past year, the Federal Reserve has employed a wide array of tools to promote economic recovery and preserve price stability. The target for the federal funds rate has been maintained at a historically low range of 0 to 1/4 percent since December 2008. The FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.』
『To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve is in the process of purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt.』
『In addition to closing its special facilities, the Federal Reserve is normalizing its lending to commercial banks through the discount window. The final auction of discount-window funds to depositories through the Term Auction Facility, which was created in the early stages of the crisis to improve the liquidity of the banking system, will occur on March 8. Last week we announced that the maximum term of discount window loans, which was increased to as much as 90 days during the crisis, would be returned to overnight for most banks, as it was before the crisis erupted in August 2007.』
でもってその目的ですが。
『To discourage banks from relying on the discount window rather than private funding markets for short-term credit, last week we also increased the discount rate by 25 basis points, raising the spread between the discount rate and the top of the target range for the federal funds rate to 50 basis points.』
『These changes, like the closure of most of the special lending facilities earlier this month, are in response to the improved functioning of financial markets, which has reduced the need for extraordinary assistance from the Federal Reserve. These adjustments are not expected to lead to tighter financial conditions for households and businesses and should not be interpreted as signaling any change in the outlook for monetary policy, which remains about the same as it was at the time of the January meeting of the FOMC.』
『Private final demand does seem to be growing at a moderate pace, buoyed in part by a general improvement in financial conditions. In particular, consumer spending has recently picked up, reflecting gains in real disposable income and household wealth and tentative signs of stabilization in the labor market. Business investment in equipment and software has risen significantly. 』
いやまあお話自体はそうですねって事なのですが、民間最終需要の回復傾向に関してわざわざ「buoyed in part by a general improvement in financial conditions」ってフレーズを入れているのは、恐らく議会(や一般ピープル)から「FRBはウォールストリートの利益の為に行動していてケシカラン」と言われやすいという点を踏まえて、「我々の金融緩和の結果として皆様の経済活動が回復傾向にあるんですよ!!!」と掴みの部分でアピールしようとしているのではないかと思ったのですがどうでしょうかね(^^)。
『Last spring the Federal Reserve led the successful Supervisory Capital Assessment Program, popularly known as the bank stress tests. An important lesson of that program was that combining on-site bank examinations with a suite of quantitative and analytical tools can greatly improve comparability of the results and better identify potential risks. 』
