[外部リンク] background for the Committee's continuing consideration of its portfolio management policies, the Manager gave a presentation on alternative strategies for reinvesting the proceeds from maturing Treasury securities.』
ということで、事務方から長期国債買入の再投資に関するいくつかの案が示されたってえことですわな。
『Under current practice, the Desk reinvests the proceeds of maturing Treasury coupon securities in new Treasury securities that are issued on the date the older securities mature, allocating the investments across the new securities in proportion to the issuance amounts.』
『The Manager presented two alternatives to the status quo. First, the Committee could consider halting all reinvestment of the proceeds of maturing securities. Such a strategy would shrink the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and reduce the quantity of reserve balances in the banking system gradually over time.』
『Second, the Committee could reinvest the proceeds of maturing securities only in new issues of Treasury securities with relatively short maturities--bills only, or bills as well as coupon issues with terms of three years or less. This strategy would maintain the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet but would reduce somewhat the average maturity of the portfolio and increase its liquidity.』
『One participant favored halting all reinvestment, and many saw benefits to eventually adopting an approach of reinvesting in bills and shorter-term coupon issues to shift the maturity composition of the portfolio toward the structure that had prevailed prior to the financial crisis.』
『Continuing a discussion from previous meetings, participants again addressed issues regarding asset sales. Participants continued to agree that gradual sales of MBS should be undertaken, at some point, to speed the return to a Treasury-securities-only portfolio.』
『A few participants supported beginning such sales fairly soon; they noted that, given the evident demand in the market for safe, longer-term assets, modest sales of MBS might not put much, if any, upward pressure on long-term interest rates or be disruptive to the functioning of financial markets. However, many participants still saw asset sales as potentially tightening financial conditions to some extent.』
日本市場の中の人的に申し上げますと多分MBS売却の金融環境への影響って「to some extent」とかいうレベルじゃないと思うのですが(^^)、日本の場合は運用部ショックと言われるものが異常なまでのトラウマになっていて(あれって運用部のアナウンスで大暴落したのではありますが、大暴落の原因ってそもそも論として別にあって、単にトリガーになっただけではないかと思うのですけれどもね)、中央銀行やら政府部門が資産売却をした場合のインパクトを過大に見積もっているだけなのかもしれません(大汗)。まあよー判らん。
『Most participants continued to judge it appropriate to defer asset sales for some time; several noted the modest weakening in the economic outlook since the Committee's last meeting as an additional reason to do so.』
そらそうですな。
『A majority of participants continued to anticipate that asset sales would start after the Committee had begun to firm policy by increasing short-term interest rates; such an approach would postpone asset sales until the economic recovery was well established and maintain short-term interest rates as the Committee's key monetary policy tool.』
『A few participants suggested selling MBS and using the proceeds to purchase Treasury securities of comparable duration, arguing that doing so would hasten the move toward a Treasury-securities-only portfolio without tightening financial conditions.』
『Participants agreed that it would be important to maintain flexibility regarding the appropriate timing and pace of asset sales, given the uncertainties associated with the unprecedented size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and its effects on financial conditions. Overall, participants emphasized that any decision to engage in asset sales would need to be communicated well in advance of the initiation of such transactions, and that sales should be conducted at a gradual pace and potentially be adjusted in response to developments in economic and financial conditions.』
7月会合の議事要旨から少々メモを。 [外部リンク] Committee considered arguments in favour of a modest easing in the stance of monetary policy. The softening in the medium-term outlook for GDP growth over recent months would put further downwards pressure on inflation, once the impact of temporary factors had waned. Pay growth had remained subdued and there was little sign of a material pickup in medium-term inflation expectations. A further modest monetary stimulus would act to offset the softening in demand prospects and make it more likely that the inflation target would be met in the medium term.』
『But there were also arguments in favour of a modest tightening in the stance of monetary policy. Inflation was likely to remain above target for some months and there was a risk that medium-term inflation expectations would rise. The resilience of inflation over recent months had suggested that the downward impact of spare capacity could be weaker than expected and this created uncertainty around the extent to which inflation would fall back in the future. Demand growth had bounced back internationally, although the geographical distribution remained uneven. The average growth rate of the main measures of UK nominal demand in recent quarters had been around or above historical rates.』
『The economic expansion that began in the middle of last year is proceeding at a moderate pace, supported by stimulative monetary and fiscal policies. Although fiscal policy and inventory restocking will likely be providing less impetus to the recovery than they have in recent quarters, rising demand from households and businesses should help sustain growth. In particular, real consumer spending appears to have expanded at about a 2-1/2 percent annual rate in the first half of this year, with purchases of durable goods increasing especially rapidly. However, the housing market remains weak, with the overhang of vacant or foreclosed houses weighing on home prices and construction.』
『My colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and I expect continued moderate growth, a gradual decline in the unemployment rate, and subdued inflation over the next several years. In conjunction with the June FOMC meeting, Board members and Reserve Bank presidents prepared forecasts of economic growth, unemployment, and inflation for the years 2010 through 2012 and over the longer run. The forecasts are qualitatively similar to those we released in February and May, although progress in reducing unemployment is now expected to be somewhat slower than we previously projected, and near-term inflation now looks likely to be a little lower. 』
『One factor underlying the Committee’s somewhat weaker outlook is that financial conditions--though much improved since the depth of the financial crisis--have become less supportive of economic growth in recent months.』
『Like financial conditions generally, the state of the U.S. banking system has also improved significantly since the worst of the crisis. Loss rates on most types of loans seem to be peaking, and, in the aggregate, bank capital ratios have risen to new highs. However, many banks continue to have a large volume of troubled loans on their books, and bank lending standards remain tight. With credit demand weak and with banks writing down problem credits, bank loans outstanding have continued to contract. Small businesses, which depend importantly on bank credit, have been particularly hard hit.』
ということで、状況は改善しているものの、クレジット環境は特に中小企業を中心にタイトな状態が続いている、ということで、以下中小企業金融に対する取り組みのような話があって、今回の議会証言でも証言テキストの後に中小企業金融関連の話(『Addressing the Financing Needs of Small Businesses』)というのがございますが、量に圧倒されてまだ読んでいません。何か面白いような気がするとあたくしの勘は申し上げております(^^)。
○金融政策に関して
後半が『Federal Reserve Policy』になります。本文4ページ以降。
まずはFRBの行った施策に関する説明がありまして、まあ毎度の如く切り分けて説明しておりまして、
『First, in response to the periods of intense illiquidity and dysfunction in financial markets that characterized the crisis, the Federal Reserve undertook a range of measures and set up emergency programs designed to provide liquidity to financial institutions and markets in the form of fully secured, mostly short-term loans.』
『A second major component of the Federal Reserve’s response to the financial crisis and recession has involved both standard and less conventional forms of monetary policy.』
『And, as indicated in the statement released after the June meeting, the FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.』
『In addition to the very low federal funds rate, the FOMC has provided monetary policy stimulus through large-scale purchases of longer-term Treasury debt, federal agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). A range of evidence suggests that these purchases helped improve conditions in mortgage markets and other private credit markets and put downward pressure on longer-term private borrowing rates and spreads.』
『One approach is for the Committee to adjust its reinvestment policy--that is, its policy for handling repayments of principal on the securities--to gradually normalize the portfolio over time.』
『As I noted earlier, the FOMC continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. At some point, however, the Committee will need to begin to remove monetary policy accommodation to prevent the buildup of inflationary pressures. When that time comes, the Federal Reserve will act to increase short-term interest rates by raising the interest rate it pays on reserve balances that depository institutions hold at Federal Reserve Banks. 』
『Of course, even as the Federal Reserve continues prudent planning for the ultimate withdrawal of extraordinary monetary policy accommodation, we also recognize that the economic outlook remains unusually uncertain.』
『We will continue to carefully assess ongoing financial and economic developments, and we remain prepared to take further policy actions as needed to foster a return to full utilization of our nation’s productive potential in a context of price stability.』
[外部リンク] Views of Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook」以下の所で、まずはそこの第2パラグラフ。
まずは現状の全体観。
『In their discussion of the economic situation and outlook, meeting participants generally saw the incoming data and information received from business contacts as consistent with a continued, moderate recovery in economic activity.』
個別展開。
『Participants noted that the labor market was improving gradually, household spending was increasing, and business spending on equipment and software had risen significantly. With private final demand having strengthened, inventory adjustments and fiscal stimulus were no longer the main factors supporting economic expansion.』
と、まあここまでは強めの話なのですが、次の物価の辺りからトーンが変わる。
物価に関して。
『In light of stable inflation expectations and incoming data indicating low rates of inflation, policymakers continued to anticipate that both overall and core inflation would remain subdued through 2012.』
『However, financial markets were generally seen as recently having become less supportive of economic growth, largely reflecting international spillovers from European fiscal strains.』
さあキタキタ、ということでその影響に関して。
『In part as a result of the change in financial conditions, most participants revised down slightly their outlook for economic growth, and about one-half of the participants judged the balance of risks to growth as having moved to the downside.』
『Most participants continued to see the risks to inflation as balanced. A number of participants expressed the view that, over the next several years, both employment and inflation would likely be below levels they consider to be consistent with their dual mandate, but they anticipated that, with appropriate monetary policy, both would rise over time to levels consistent with the Federal Reserve's objectives. 』
『Some participants judged the risks to the outlook for inflation as tilted to the downside, particularly in the near term, in light of the large amount of resource slack already prevailing in the economy, the significant downside risks to the outlook for real activity, and the possibility that inflation expectations could begin to decline in response to low actual inflation.』
『Other participants, however, thought that inflation was unlikely to fall appreciably further given the stability of inflation expectations in recent years and very accommodative monetary policy.』
とは言えまあ残りの人はまだそこまで見ていないようで。
『Over the medium term, participants saw both upside and downside risks to inflation. Several participants noted that a continuation of lower-than-expected inflation and high unemployment could eventually lead to a downward movement in inflation expectations that would reinforce disinflationary pressures. By contrast, a few participants noted the possibility that a potentially unsustainable fiscal position and the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet could boost inflation expectations and actual inflation over time.』
『In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, members agreed that it would be appropriate to maintain the target range of 0 to 1/4 percent for the federal funds rate.』
まあこれはいつもの話。
『The economic outlook had softened somewhat and a number of members saw the risks to the outlook as having shifted to the downside.』
経済見通しがやや弱まって、多くのメンバーがリスクが下方にシフトしたと。
『Nonetheless, all saw the economic expansion as likely to be strong enough to continue raising resource utilization, albeit more slowly than they had previously anticipated.』
経済は資源の活用を引き上げ続ける程に強い拡大をしているものの、従来の見通しよりも減速しているとな。
『In addition, they saw inflation as likely to stabilize near recent low readings in coming quarters and then gradually rise toward more desirable levels. 』
インフレも安定しており、先行きも望ましい水準内での緩やかな上昇に留まるとな。
『In sum, the changes to the outlook were viewed as relatively modest and as not warranting policy accommodation beyond that already in place. However, members noted that in addition to continuing to develop and test instruments to exit from the period of unusually accommodative monetary policy, the Committee would need to consider whether further policy stimulus might become appropriate if the outlook were to worsen appreciably.』
『Given the slightly softer cast of recent data and the shift to less accommodative financial conditions, members agreed that some changes to the statement's characterization of the economic and financial situation were necessary.』
『Nearly all members judged that it was appropriate to reiterate the expectation that economic conditions--including low levels of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations--were likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.』
『One member, however, believed that continuing to communicate an expectation in the Committee's statement that the federal funds rate would remain at an exceptionally low level for an extended period would create conditions that could lead to macroeconomic and financial imbalances. 』
『It seems a reasonable starting assumption that behaviour during the recession should be broadly symmetric during the recovery. When demand growth strengthens, output could be flexibly ratcheted up, reversing the processes seen during the downturn.』
『If so, then it is unlikely that substantial inflationary pressure would be generated as the result of a recovery in demand: there will be plenty of capacity within firms and a ready supply of labour, both of which should help to keep costs subdued. But this is clearly a major uncertainty and hence a risk in our projections of future inflation. Not only has the UK economy behaved differently from its previous experience, it has also behaved differently from other countries. In the United States for example, the fall in employment relative to output has been larger than in the United Kingdom (Chart 8).』
『Weak downwards pressure on inflation from the recession can only go so far in helping understand recent movements in inflation. It cannot explain why inflation has been rising recently. For that we need to look at a series of shocks to relative prices that have put temporary upwards pressure on CPI inflation. These shocks include the change in the VAT rate; changes in oil (and hence petrol) prices and changes in the prices of imports relative to domestic goods and services.』
『The recent high rate of CPI inflation can be largely attributed to a number of temporary factors, combined with weak downwards pressure on inflation from the subdued level of demand. Nevertheless, given the expected degree of spare capacity in the economy over the next few years, and that the temporary factors should wear off, the most likely outcome is that inflation falls back to below target over the next couple of years as shown in the May Inflation Report (Chart 12). On that basis it was sensible not to try and offset the recent rise in inflation by tightening policy.』
『But let me be clear about the risks. Our central expectations could be wrong. Certainly the inflation data have tended to consistently surprise on the upside, month-by-month. What if spare capacity continues to exert much less restraint on inflation than anticipated? Or perhaps current data estimates have significantly underestimated demand and output growth? Or the exchange rate effect is bigger than incorporated in the projections? We could also be wrong in the other direction: downside pressures on UK output growth (Chart 13) could yet lead to an even bigger fall in inflation than the central case. And, of course, there could be further shocks in either direction.』
『So it is important to use whatever cross-checks on our projections that we can. One way to do that is to look for any nominal indicators that might signal risks of persistently above target inflation in the medium term, such as money or wage growth.』
『Underlying money growth is currently just over 1% on an annual basis. And underlying wage growth is around 2%. There are some tentative signs that money and wage growth are rising, but neither of these figures are even close to being consistent with above-target inflation in the medium term.』
『Taking these indicators together with the degree of slack in the economy ? and given some of the factors likely to restrain growth in the UK and in Europe ? the economics of the situation does suggest that inflation should fall back from its current high point. But there are risks on both sides.』
『On the one hand we need to be sensitive to the risk of tightening policy prematurely, stifling the nascent recovery.』
早期引き締めは現在の初期の回復を窒息させると仰せです。
『In that case, some of the flexible response to the recession could beswept away, delivering higher unemployment, more company failures and the risk of inflation significantly undershooting the target. The risk of deflation ? which prompted the start of the MPC’s asset purchases in 2009 ? may have faded, but it hasn’t gone away and would require greater efforts to deal with, if it materialised now.』
『On the other hand, should it appear likely that inflationary pressure is sustained at a higher level into the medium term, then it is clear what our mandate would require us to do. The MPC has the tools at its disposal to tighten monetary conditions, both in the form of raising Bank Rate and by selling the assets that we bought in 2009 as part of the quantitative easing programme.』
『Annual CPI Inflation reached 3.7% in April (Chart 1). Given the Monetary Policy Committee’s remit to target CPI inflation of 2%, you might well want to ask “how has inflation got so high and what is the MPC going to do about it?” I intend to tackle those questions head on this morning and, in the process, illustrate some of the challenges the Committee faces in setting monetary policy.』
『One might have expected a recession of this depth to exert considerable downwards pressure on inflation - such that the current CPI inflation rate could easily have been negative. The recovery in inflation seems to reflect two factors. First, given the scale of the fall in demand, the downwards pressure from the recession doesn’t appear to have been as strong as it might have been. Second, there have been a number of temporary factors pushing upwards.』
でもって、その理由に企業行動が挙げられるらしいのですが、関連のサプライヤーをもつ大手企業(下請けを持つってことだと思うのだが)がその企業を維持しようとしたり、企業が人を減らすよりも賃金の削減で対応したという行動を指摘していますな。本文4ページのあたり。 『It has been clear that there has been an unusual response from companies and their employees. Many firms have sought to retain staff wherever possible, rather than shed them as in previous downturns - hours have been shortened and wages frozen or even cut where possible, rather than making people redundant. Large firms with smaller suppliers have tried to work with suppliers to keep their supply chains intact, which has helped smaller firms to survive. Many employees - at least in the private sector - have been willing to forgo income in order to retain their jobs.』
『Overall, the fall in output does not appear to have done as much damage to employment and firm survival as one might have expected. At the same time, the implication of business surveys is that the degree of spare capacity in firms is rather less than implied by the fall in output. So estimates of the gap between overall demand and the economy’s capacity to produce goods and services - an indicator of inflationary pressure known as the ‘output gap’- are extremely uncertain at the current juncture. The ‘output gap’ appears to be much smaller than the fall in demand alone would have suggested, but there is little evidence of widespread destruction of supply capacity.』
『Whatever the balance between demand and supply, it seems that many firms have maintained prices, not cut them, in the face of weak demand. That may have been a rational response. In order to survive they needed to maximise their present cash flow and they would only have cut prices if the demand response was likely to outweigh the lost revenue.』
『The explanations for these changes in behaviour and their inflationary consequences are likely to be many and varied. And it may be some time before we can be sure which of many hypotheses are correct. But one factor we know is that interest rates have been at an all-time historic low during this recession (Chart 7). And Bank Rate started to fall well before the trough in output. The effect of this on, for example, firms’ cash flow, has been very significant and was reinforced by the effects of the asset purchase programme reducing corporate borrowing costs.』
