『また、国債の決済においても、DVP決済への移行により元本取りはぐれリスクは回避されました。さらに、国債の清算機関であるJGBCC(Japan Government Bond Clearing Corporation)が、セントラル・カウンターパーティとして、取引当事者の間に入って双方の債務を引き受け、資金・証券決済の履行を保証しました。それにより国債流通市場全体でみた決済リスクは抑制され、国債決済においてデフォルトが市場全体に連鎖的に広がる事態が回避されました。』
『The first key risk was that the prolonged period of above-target inflation would lead inflation expectations to drift up, making it more costly to bring inflation back to target.』
『The second key risk was that private demand would not grow sufficiently quickly to replace the waning boost from the working out of the stock cycle and public spending, thus increasing the margin of spare capacity in the economy and causing inflation to fall materially below the target in the medium term.』
『In relation to the first risk, CPI inflation had remained unchanged at 3.1% during August, although pay growth measures had remained subdued. Most indicators of inflation expectations were broadly unchanged. Overall, the Committee judged that the upside risk to inflation expectations, and so the inflation outlook, remained but had not changed materially over the month.』
『With regard to the second risk, developments over the month were on balance consistent with a reduction in growth prospects for the second half of 2010. In the latest vintage of ONS data, private sector final demand had been broadly flat during the first half of the year as a whole. Instead, growth had been accounted for by contributions from stockbuilding and public expenditure, both of which would fall back in due course. Some indicators also suggested that service sector output growth could weaken during the second half of the year. There had, however, been more promising information about the strength of consumption in the third quarter.』
『Near-term prospects for inflation remained unusually uncertain and sensitive to the impact of a number of factors whose impact was difficult to evaluate accurately.』
『The Committee could not be sure of the extent to which inflation would moderate. Businesses’costs and prices depended on the degree of spare capacity, both within companies and in the labour market, and therefore in part on the strength of demand.』(これは8月MPC議事要旨第28パラグラフ)
『International short and medium-term interest rates had declined substantially over the month. Those falls, insofar as they had reflected revised views about the future course of monetary policy, would be likely to stimulate activity at home and overseas. Moreover, the external financing raised by UK banks during August, and over the year as a whole, would contribute to the necessary restructuring of their balance sheets. That restructuring, which would take a long time to complete, was a pre-condition for an eventual normalisation in credit conditions.』
○景気に関するリスクは若干下方&量的緩和の「量」の話はいずこへ
第28パラグラフから。
『Committee members differed in their interpretation of these developments for the balance of risks to activity and so inflation in the medium term.』
『A number of members thought there had been either a slight reduction or little change to this risk, with weaker news about the prospects for activity during 2010 H2 and the boost from lower market interest rates acting in opposite directions.』
『Other members thought that recent developments indicated that the headwinds to a recovery in private sector demand in the United Kingdom and overseas were somewhat stronger than previously thought, and that the downside risks to activity had increased.』
おまけにそのうちの1名はこの下方リスク顕在化局面において足元の生産復元の反動が出るリスクを指摘と。
『One member was also concerned that the risk of an adverse hit to the supply capacity of the economy had increased in recent months. That would occur if a decline in growth during the second half of the year prompted companies, which had been holding on to underutilised resources in anticipation of a faster recovery in activity, to shed more labour and scrap more capital.』
『On balance, most members thought that the current level of Bank Rate and stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves remained appropriate to balance the risks to the inflation outlook in the medium term.』
『For some of those members, the probability that further action would become necessary to stimulate the economy and keep inflation on track to hit the target in the medium term had increased.』
ということで、委員の中では「将来の政策アクションは景気を刺激しつつインフレを中期的にターゲット水準に持っていく必要がある可能性が高まっている」とか何とか読めるのですが、さてこの「keep inflation on track to hit the target in the medium term」って所が、ここまでの議論の流れを見ると、「景気を刺激しながら物価上昇は抑制するという政策が必要になってきている」という風にあたくし的には読めてしまうのですが、そんな器用な政策をとるとなるとこれまた大変だなあとか思うのですが、これは本当はどう訳せばよいのか教えてエロイ人!!
で、後は余談ですけれども。
○資産価格の相互関連が高まっているという指摘
金融市場に関する検討部分の第6パラグラフに面白い指摘が。
『The Committee noted that asset price movements remained more highly correlated than usual, suggesting that market participants viewed individual asset returns as remaining unusually dependent upon global economic developments.』
『This heightened correlation had been associated with an increased incidence of short-lived, generalised asset price rallies and declines. The transitory nature of some of these changes provided grounds for being cautious about drawing firm signals from monthly financial market developments.』
『It remained unusually difficult to identify trends in nominal demand from the latest monetary aggregates, given higher-than-normal uncertainty about the seasonal pattern of some financial companies’ money holdings. Household money balances had continued to grow slowly, although there had been some pickup in the growth of private non-financial companies’ money balances.』
今回声明文 [外部リンク] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.』(今回)
と言うところは前回と同じ。次の企業投資行動部分が若干判断下げ。
『Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls.』(今回)
『Business spending on equipment and software is rising; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. 』(前回)
『Bank lending has continued to contract, but at a reduced rate in recent months. 』(今回) 『Bank lending has continued to contract. 』(前回)
銀行貸出の判断は引き上げています。
『The Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be modest in the near term.』(今回)
『Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated.』(前回)
『Measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. 』(今回)
「currently at levels somewhat below」キターーーー(・∀・)っと。
『With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to remain subdued for some time before rising to levels the Committee considers consistent with its mandate.』(今回)
ということで、「before rising to levels the Committee considers consistent with its mandate」って文言が入ると文章のニュアンスが微妙になる気がするのですけれども、これって「適正と考える水準へ物価上昇率が戻るまでの間少々お時間が掛かります」とか何とかいう話になるのかいな。ただまあ先行きに関してはまだ「デフレ懸念」みたいな話には一応なっていないけれども、ニュアンスはニュアンスとして物価下落懸念という事になるんでしょうかねえ。
前回のはこんな感じです。
『Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters and, with substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time. 』(前回)
『The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. 』(今回)
というのは前回と同じというか毎回同じと言うか(^^)。
『The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings.』(今回)
『The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate. 』(今回)
『The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability. 』(前回)
ということで、前回はまあ普通の文言でしたが、今回は「prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed 」キタコレというところでございます。で、何をするのかは当たり前ですが書いてありませんですが、まあ一般的に考えられるのはFEDの資産サイドを拡大するという話(つまり国債買入)でしょうかねえとは思いますけどよー判らん。
○ホーニッグ先生の反対理由が今回微妙に違うでござるの巻
どうでも良いっちゃあどうでも良いですけどマニア的には興味があるので(^^)。
『Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig, who judged that the economy continues to recover at a moderate pace. 』(今回) 『Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig, who judges that the economy is recovering modestly, as projected. 』(前回)
『Accordingly, he believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted and will lead to future imbalances that undermine stable long-run growth. 』(今回)
『Accordingly, he believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted and limits the Committee's ability to adjust policy when needed. 』(前回)
毎度おなじみの「for an extended period 」に対して、前回は「必要な時の政策手段を阻害する惧れ」という反対理由でしたが、今回は「将来における経済不均衡をもたらす」という反対理由になっています。じゃあそれがどういう事かと言いますとまあ良く判らんですけれども(おいおい)前回までは利上げを視野に入れた理由だったのが、今回は「将来の不均衡」という理由になっているので理由としては一歩後退(何のこっちゃ^^)ということでしょう。出口政策云々がああだこうだ言う前のホーニッグ先生の反対理由が「将来の不均衡」でしたので、そーゆー意味では多分反対理由が弱くなっていると思います(^^)。
『In addition, given economic and financial conditions, Mr. Hoenig did not believe that continuing to reinvest principal payments from its securities holdings was required to support the Committee’s policy objectives.』(今回)
『In addition, given economic and financial conditions, Mr. Hoenig did not believe that keeping constant the size of the Federal Reserve's holdings of longer-term securities at their current level was required to support a return to the Committee's policy objectives. 』(前回)
[外部リンク] logic of the portfolio balance channel implies that the degree of accommodation delivered by the Federal Reserve’s securities purchase program is determined primarily by the quantity and mix of securities the central bank holds or is anticipated to hold at a point in time (the “stock view”), rather than by the current pace of new purchases (the “flow view”).』
『In support of the stock view, the cessation of the Federal Reserve’s purchases of agency securities at the end of the first quarter of this year seems to have had only negligible effects on longer-term rates and spreads.』
『The Federal Reserve did not hold the size of its securities portfolio precisely constant after it ended its agency purchase program earlier this year. Instead, consistent with the Committee’s goal of ultimately returning the portfolio to one consisting primarily of Treasury securities, we adopted a policy of re-investing maturing Treasuries in similar securities while allowing agency securities to run off as payments of principal were received.』
『To date, we have realized about $140 billion of repayments of principal on our holdings of agency debt and MBS, most of it prior to the end of the purchase program. Continued repayments at this pace, together with the policy of not re-investing the proceeds, were expected to lead to a slight reduction in policy accommodation over time.』
『However, more recently, as the pace of economic growth has slowed somewhat, longer-term interest rates have fallen and mortgage refinancing activity has picked up. Increased refinancing has in turn led the Fed’s holding of agency MBS to run off more quickly than previously anticipated. Although mortgage prepayment rates are difficult to predict, under the assumption that mortgage rates remain near current levels, we estimated that an additional $400 billion or so of MBS and agency debt currently in the Fed’s portfolio could be repaid by the end of 2011.』
『At their most recent meeting, FOMC participants observed that allowing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet to shrink in this way at a time when the outlook had weakened somewhat was inconsistent with the Committee’s intention to provide the monetary accommodation necessary to support the recovery.』
なんかいつの間にか話がマネタリーベースっぽい論点に摩り替わっているのがチャーミング。
『Moreover, a bad dynamic could come into at play: Any further weakening of the economy that resulted in lower longer-term interest rates and a still-faster pace of mortgage refinancing would likely lead in turn to an even more-rapid runoff of MBS from the Fed’s balance sheet. Thus, a weakening of the economy might act indirectly to increase the pace of passive policy tightening--a perverse outcome.』
『In response to these concerns, the FOMC agreed to stabilize the quantity of securities held by the Federal Reserve by re-investing payments of principal on agency securities into longer-term Treasury securities.』
『In response to these concerns, the FOMC agreed to stabilize the quantity of securities held by the Federal Reserve by re-investing payments of principal on agency securities into longer-term Treasury securities.』
『We decided to reinvest in Treasury securities rather than agency securities because the Federal Reserve already owns a very large share of available agency securities, suggesting that reinvestment in Treasury securities might be more effective in reducing longer-term interest rates and improving financial conditions with less chance of adverse effects on market functioning.』
『Also, as I already noted, reinvestment in Treasury securities is more consistent with the Committee’s longer-term objective of a portfolio made up principally of Treasury securities. We do not rule out changing the reinvestment strategy if circumstances warrant, however.』
『By agreeing to keep constant the size of the Federal Reserve’s securities portfolio, the Committee avoided an undesirable passive tightening of policy that might otherwise have occurred. The decision also underscored the Committee’s intent to maintain accommodative financial conditions as needed to support the recovery. We will continue to monitor economic developments closely and to evaluate whether additional monetary easing would be beneficial.』
『In particular, the Committee is prepared to provide additional monetary accommodation through unconventional measures if it proves necessary, especially if the outlook were to deteriorate significantly. The issue at this stage is not whether we have the tools to help support economic activity and guard against disinflation. We do. As I will discuss next, the issue is instead whether, at any given juncture, the benefits of each tool, in terms of additional stimulus, outweigh the associated costs or risks of using the tool.』
虫干しネタでどうもすいません。 [外部リンク] since December 2008, the FOMC has held its target for the federal funds rate in a range of 0 to 25 basis points. Moreover, since March 2009, the Committee has consistently stated its expectation that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low policy rates for an extended period. Partially in response to FOMC communications, futures markets quotes suggest that investors are not anticipating significant policy tightening by the Federal Reserve for quite some time. Market expectations for continued accommodative policy have in turn helped reduce interest rates on a range of short- and medium-term financial instruments to quite low levels, indeed not far above the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates in many cases.』
『The FOMC has also acted to improve market functioning and to push longer-term interest rates lower through its large-scale purchases of agency debt, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and longer-term Treasury securities, of which the Federal Reserve currently holds more than $2 trillion.』
『The channels through which the Fed’s purchases affect longer-term interest rates and financial conditions more generally have been subject to debate.』
まあそらそうだわな。で、バーナンキ先生はこのように仰せです。
『I see the evidence as most favorable to the view that such purchases work primarily through the so-called portfolio balance channel, which holds that once short-term interest rates have reached zero, the Federal Reserve’s purchases of longer-term securities affect financial conditions by changing the quantity and mix of financial assets held by the public.』
『Specifically, the Fed’s strategy relies on the presumption that different financial assets are not perfect substitutes in investors’ portfolios, so that changes in the net supply of an asset available to investors affect its yield and those of broadly similar assets.』
うーん、その説明は怪しいと思う。
『Thus, our purchases of Treasury, agency debt, and agency MBS likely both reduced the yields on those securities and also pushed investors into holding other assets with similar characteristics, such as credit risk and duration.』
資産買入の後長期金利そのものは上昇したという件を華麗にスルーしているのが何とも。
『For example, some investors who sold MBS to the Fed may have replaced them in their portfolios with longer-term, high-quality corporate bonds, depressing the yields on those assets as well.』
