[外部リンク] Policy Objectives and Tools in a Low-Inflation Environment」というものなのでワクテカして斜め読みした(これがまた本文15ページもございまして結構長い)のですが、そんなに面白いネタがなくて若干拍子抜け(いやまあもちろんあたくしが肝心な所を読み飛ばしてしまった可能性はあるので判っていたら教えてくんなましという所なのですが、汗)だったりするのれす。
で、講演のマクラの部分も妙に長いのですが、そのマクラの最後に今回の講演の流れが書かれております。
『In the remainder of my remarks I will discuss these issues in the context of current economic and policy developments. I will comment on the near-term outlook for economic activity and inflation. I will then compare that outlook to some quantitative measures of the Federal Reserve’s objectives, namely, the longer-run outcomes that FOMC participants judge to be most consistent with its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Finally, I will observe that, in a world in which the policy interest rate is close to zero, the Committee must consider the costs and risks associated with the use of nonconventional tools when it assesses whether additional policy accommodation is likely to be beneficial on net.』
『The Outlook for Growth and Employment』ってのが3ページ半ほどあるのですが、これを大体一言でまとめると「雇用の改善に時間がかかるので経済の回復には時間がかかりますなあ」という所ですな。あと金融環境の改善に関しては景気にサポートという話をしておりますが、特にその恩恵は直接金融市場へのアクセスができる大企業が受けているものの、銀行の貸出態度も改善しているので、クレジット的に借入に値する債務者であれば、中小や個人でもやや状況が改善してますなというな話をしています。
『The Outlook for Inflation』という所ですが、雇用の改善が遅れてリソースのスラックが大きいのでインフレは抑制されるでしょうという毎度の見通しです。それだけで終わると何ですので、先般ご紹介したFOMC議事要旨にあった「雇用のミスマッチ解消が進まないのは労働者のモビリティーが低下するという構造的な要因があるのではないか」という指摘に関してダメ出しをしているのがチャーミングなのでそちらから。
『In gauging the magnitude of prevailing resource slack and the associated restraint on price and wage increases, it is essential to consider the extent to which structural factors may be contributing to elevated rates of unemployment.』
『Overall, my assessment is that the bulk of the increase in unemployment since the recession began is attributable to the sharp contraction in economic activity that occurred in the wake of the financial crisis and the continuing shortfall of aggregate demand since then, rather than to structural factors.』
ということで、あまり構造的な失業の増加要因という考えには与していないというのが結論だったりします。
・金融政策ツールに関してですが、現状の物価と失業が望ましくない水準と言及
『The Objectives of Monetary Policy』のところですが、これまた理念的な話をああでもないこうでもないとしておりまして、「デュアルマンデートの実現にあたっては一つの目標にフォーカスし過ぎないようにしないといけません」などとどこの日銀かというような話もしらっとしているのがチャーミングです。
『The Federal Reserve has a statutory mandate to foster maximum employment and price stability, and explaining how we are working toward those goals plays a crucial role in our monetary policy strategy. It is evident that neither of our dual objectives can be taken in isolation: On the one hand, a central bank that aimed to achieve the highest possible level of employment in the short run, without regard to other considerations, might well generate unacceptable levels of inflation without any permanent benefits in terms of employment. On the other hand, a single-minded focus by the central bank on price stability, with no attention at all to other factors, could lead to more frequent and deeper slumps in economic activity and employment with little benefit in terms of longrun inflation performance.』
『Although attaining the long-run sustainable rate of unemployment and achieving the mandate-consistent rate of inflation are both key objectives of monetary policy, the two objectives are somewhat different in nature. Most importantly, whereas monetary policymakers clearly have the ability to determine the inflation rate in the long run, they have little or no control over the longer-run sustainable unemployment rate, which is primarily determined by demographic and structural factors, not by monetary policy.』
それがつまりどういうことかと言いますと・・・
『Thus, while central bankers can choose the value of inflation they wish to target, the sustainable unemployment rate can only be estimated, and is subject to substantial uncertainty. Moreover, the sustainable rate of unemployment typically evolves over time as its fundamental determinants change, whereas keeping inflation expectations firmly anchored generally implies that the inflation objective should remain constant unless there are compelling technical reasons for changing it, such as changes in the methods used to measure inflation.』
まあだからそっちに関しては努力しないというのではなく、コミュニケーションのツールとして「Summary of Economic Projections(要するに展望レポート^^)」を出してますよという話をしてますわな。
『In contrast, as I noted earlier, recent readings on underlying inflation have been approximately 1 percent. Thus, in effect, inflation is running at rates that are too low relative to the levels that the Committee judges to be most consistent with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate in the longer run.』
まあFOMC声明文でも出てましたけどね。
『In particular, at current rates of inflation, the constraint imposed by the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates is too tight (the short-term real interest rate is too high, given the state of the economy), and the risk of deflation is higher than desirable.』
『As of June, the longer-run unemployment projections in the SEP(引用者追記:Summary of Economic Projectionsの事です) had a central tendency of about 5 to 5-1/4 percent--about 1/4 percentage point higher than a year earlier--and a couple of participants’ projections were even higher at around 6 to 6-1/4 percent. The evolution of these projections and the diversity of views reflect the characteristics that I noted earlier: The sustainable rate of unemployment may vary over time, and estimates of its value are subject to considerable uncertainty. Nonetheless, with an actual unemployment rate of nearly 10 percent, unemployment is clearly too high relative to estimates of its sustainable rate. Moreover, with output growth over the next year expected to be only modestly above its longer-term trend, high unemployment is currently forecast to persist for some time.』
『For example, a means of providing additional monetary stimulus, if warranted,would be to expand the Federal Reserve’s holdings of longer-term securities. Empirical evidence suggests that our previous program of securities purchases was successful in bringing down longer-term interest rates and thereby supporting the economic recovery. A similar program conducted by the Bank of England also appears to have had benefits.』
『However, possible costs must be weighed against the potential benefits of nonconventional policies. One disadvantage of asset purchases relative to conventional monetary policy is that we have much less experience in judging the economic effects of this policy instrument, which makes it challenging to determine the appropriate quantity and pace of purchases and to communicate this policy response to the public. These factors have dictated that the FOMC proceed with some caution in deciding whether to engage in further purchases of longer-term securities.』
ということで微妙な日和見姿勢が見られますな。
『Another concern associated with additional securities purchases is that substantial further expansion of the balance sheet could reduce public confidence in the Fed’s ability to execute a smooth exit from its accommodative policies at the appropriate time. Even if unjustified, such a reduction in confidence might lead to an undesired increase in inflation expectations, to a level above the Committee’s inflation objective.』
『To address such concerns and to ensure that it can withdraw monetary accommodation smoothly at the appropriate time, the Federal Reserve has developed an array of new tools. With these tools in hand, I am confident that the FOMC will be able to tighten monetary conditions when warranted, even if the balance sheet remains considerably larger than normal at that time.』
ではまず白川総裁講演から。 [外部リンク] or Clean)』ってところで大変にこうアレな内容を予感するのですが、もうその通りの展開になっているのが心温まるのでありまする。
『今回の危機とその後の経験は、私の友人であるBill White が指摘する「事前か事後か」(lean or clean)の議論に関し、より明確な方向性を与えてくれたと思っています。この問題は、「金融政策は、バブルの発生を未然に防ぐために流れに立ち向かう(lean against the wind)べきか、それとも単に、バブルが崩壊した後に後始末(clean up the mess after the bubble has burst)をすることで十分なのか」と言い換えることができます。』
『このことは、低金利環境の下では、利回りを追求する(search for yield)傾向や、より積極的にリスクをとる姿勢につながっていきます。実際、今回の危機に向かっていく局面では、高格付け商品でありながら驚くほど高い名目利回りをもたらすサブプライム関連証券化商品への投資が拡大しました。投資家は、意識する、しないにかかわらず、大きな信用リスクと流動性リスクをとっていましたが、そうした行動は、潤沢な流動性を伴う低金利環境において増幅されていたといえます。このような環境下では認識しにくい「テール・リスク」が、投資家のポートフォリオや金融機関のバランスシートに蓄積されていったのです。』
『第1に、中央銀行が事前的対応を効果的に行うためには、どのような条件を満たす必要があるか、という点です。中央銀行は、経済の中に持続不可能な不均衡が蓄積されていないかどうか、そして、人々が好景気を謳歌している最中に金融を引き締める必要があるかどうか(take away the punch bowl in the midst of the party)を判断する役割を担っています。』
『Participants discussed the medium-term outlook for monetary policy and issues related to monetary policy implementation.』
で、さてどうなんでしょうという所で。
『Many participants noted that if economic growth remained too slow to make satisfactory progress toward reducing the unemployment rate or if inflation continued to come in below levels consistent with the FOMC's dual mandate, it would be appropriate to provide additional monetary policy accommodation.』
ということでですな、remainedとかcontinued to comeとか言っている訳ですから、経済状況が現在のままで推移すれば追加緩和が必要というのが「多くの委員から」指摘されているという事で。
『However, others thought that additional accommodation would be warranted only if the outlook worsened and the odds of deflation increased materially. 』othersですから一人では無いようですが、更なる悪化がなければ追加緩和要らないんじゃネーノという指摘ですわな。
『Meeting participants discussed several possible approaches to providing additional accommodation but focused primarily on further purchases of longer-term Treasury securities and on possible steps to affect inflation expectations.』
『Participants reviewed the likely benefits and costs associated with a program of purchasing additional longer-term assets--with some noting that the economic benefits could be small in current circumstances--as well as the best means to calibrate and implement such purchases.』
で、インフレ期待に効果を与えて副作用の小さいのは長期国債の買入とな。
○短期的な期待インフレ率を引き上げて実質短期金利を低下させるという理屈が出てきました
で、その次に期待インフレ率で短期実質金利を下げるという話を。
『A number of participants commented on the important role of inflation expectations for monetary policy: With short-term nominal interest rates constrained by the zero bound, a decline in short-term inflation expectations increases short-term real interest rates (that is, the difference between nominal interest rates and expected inflation), thereby damping aggregate demand. Conversely, in such circumstances, an increase in inflation expectations lowers short-term real interest rates, stimulating the economy. 』
『Participants noted a number of possible strategies for affecting short-term inflation expectations, including providing more detailed information about the rates of inflation the Committee considered consistent with its dual mandate, targeting a path for the price level rather than the rate of inflation, and targeting a path for the level of nominal GDP.』
『As a general matter, participants felt that any needed policy accommodation would be most effective if enacted within a framework that was clearly communicated to the public.』
『In their discussion of monetary policy for the period immediately ahead, nearly all of the Committee members agreed that it would be appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent and to leave unchanged the level of the combined holdings of Treasury, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities in the SOMA.』
まあここまでは良いとして。
『Although many members considered the recent and anticipated progress toward meeting the Committee's mandate of maximum employment and price stability to be unsatisfactory, members observed that incoming data over the intermeeting period indicated that the economic recovery was continuing, albeit slowly.』
一応景気回復は遅いながらも継続するも、現状の経済状況はunsatisfactoryとな。
『Moreover, the data had been mixed, with readings early in the period generally weaker than anticipated but the more-recent data coming in on the strong side of expectations. In light of the considerable uncertainty about the current trajectory for the economy, some members saw merit in accumulating further information before reaching a decision about providing additional monetary stimulus.』
『Several members noted that unless the pace of economic recovery strengthened or underlying inflation moved back toward a level consistent with the Committee's mandate, they would consider it appropriate to take action soon.』
several members様におかれましては「景気回復ペースが強くなったり、足元の物価上昇が改善しないのであれば、追加の金融緩和を早急に行うべき」と指摘していまして、つまりさっきもありましたけれども、「経済が現状のままなら追加緩和する」という話になるので、そーゆー意味では11月の追加緩和って結構ダンディールに近い話ですよね。
『With respect to the statement to be released following the meeting, members agreed that it was appropriate to adjust the statement to make it clear that underlying inflation had been running below levels that the Committee judged to be consistent with its mandate for maximum employment and price stability, in part to help anchor inflation expectations.』
『Nearly all members agreed that the statement should reiterate the expectation that economic conditions were likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. One member, however, believed that continuing to communicate that expectation in the Committee's statement would create conditions that could lead to macroeconomic and financial imbalances.』
extended periodに関してはいつもの人が反対しているのでここはまあいつもどおり。
『Members generally thought that the statement should note that the Committee was prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate.』 generallyつーのは(※ホーニッグを除く)って事ですかな。
『Such an indication accorded with the members' sense that such accommodation may be appropriate before long, but also made clear that any decisions would depend upon future information about the economic situation and outlook.』
『In the economic forecast prepared for the September FOMC meeting, the staff lowered its projection for the increase in real economic activity over the second half of 2010.』
スタッフは2010年後半の経済見通しを引き下げとな。
『The staff also reduced slightly its forecast of growth next year but continued to anticipate a moderate strengthening of the expansion in 2011 as well as a further pickup in economic growth in 2012. The softer tone of incoming economic data suggested that the underlying level of demand was weaker than projected at the time of the August meeting. Moreover, the outlook for foreign economic activity also appeared a bit weaker.』
一応先行きの見通しの基本的な「回復」という線は維持しているのですが・・・・
『In the medium term, the recovery in economic activity was expected to receive support from accommodative monetary policy, further improvements in financial conditions, and greater household and business confidence.』
『Over the forecast period, the increase in real GDP was projected to be sufficient to slowly reduce economic slack, although resource slack was anticipated to still remain elevated at the end of 2012. 』
『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』のまずは頭の部分から。
『In their discussion of the economic situation and outlook, meeting participants generally agreed that the incoming data indicated that output and employment were increasing only slowly and at rates well below those recorded earlier in the year.』
ということで生産と雇用の回復は鈍化しており水準も低いと。
『Although participants considered it unlikely that the economy would reenter a recession, many expressed concern that output growth, and the associated progress in reducing the level of unemployment, could be slow for some time.』
『Participants noted a number of factors that were restraining growth, including low levels of household and business confidence, heightened risk aversion, and the still weak financial conditions of some households and small firms. A few participants noted that economic recoveries were often uneven and were typically slow following downturns triggered by financial crises.』
『A number of participants observed that the sluggish pace of growth and continued high levels of slack left the economy exposed to potential negative shocks. Nevertheless, participants judged the economic recovery to be continuing and generally expected growth to pick up gradually next year.』
『A number of participants noted that the current sluggish pace of employment growth was insufficient to reduce unemployment at a satisfactory pace.』
多くの委員は最近の不活発な雇用の成長が、失業が満足なペースで減るのには不十分とな。
『Several participants reported feedback from business contacts who were delaying hiring until the economic and regulatory outlook became more certain.』
んでこの先に「ふ〜ん」っていう指摘が。
『Participants discussed the possible extent to which the unemployment rate was being boosted by structural factors such as mismatches between the skills of the workers who had lost their jobs and the skills needed in the sectors of the economy with vacancies, the inability of the unemployed to relocate because their homes were worth less than their mortgages, and the effects of extended unemployment benefits.』
『Participants agreed that factors like these were pushing the unemployment rate up, but they differed in their assessments of the extent of such effects. Nevertheless, many participants saw evidence that the current unemployment rate was considerably above levels that could be explained by structural factors alone, pointing, for example, to declines in employment across a wide range of industries during the recession, job vacancy rates that were relatively low, and reports that weak demand for goods and services remained a key reason why firms were adding employees only slowly.』
『Inflation had declined since the start of the recession, and most participants indicated that underlying inflation was at levels somewhat below those that they judged to be consistent with the Committee's dual mandate for maximum employment and price stability.』
『Although prices of some commodities and imported goods had risen recently, many business contacts reported that they currently had little pricing power and that they anticipated limited, if any, increases in labor costs. Meeting participants noted that several measures of inflation expectations had changed little, on net, over the intermeeting period and that analysis of the components of price indexes suggested disinflation might be abating. However, TIPS-based inflation compensation had declined, on balance, in recent quarters. While underlying inflation remained subdued, participants saw only small odds of deflation.』
