つーことで後半の『The Fed’s Responses and Their Benefits』であります。
『The Federal Reserve responded to the Great Recession and the associated financial crisis in a number of ways. These responses fall roughly into two classes.』
FEDの金融危機対応はラフに言えば二つの種類に分類されますよと。
『First, the Fed engaged in a vast amount of lending to firms believed to be in sound condition. It lent through conventional vehicles like the discount window and swaps with foreign central banks. But it also lent through relatively unconventional vehicles like the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility. I’ll briefly discuss how this lending is distinct from the Fed’s injection of funds into obviously nonsolvent institutions like AIG.』
『Here, I should clarify some terminology. By the term “real interest rate,” I’m referring to the interest rate received by lenders net of inflation. Thus, if the interest rate on the loan is 5 percent and lenders expect inflation to be around 2 percent, the real interest rate is roughly 3 percent. Economists generally think that the real interest rate, not the nominal interest rate, matters for economic decision-making.』
『Early in the recession, the Fed lowered its target for the fed funds rate. Given that inflation expectations remained stable, this action served to lower the real interest rate. By early 2009, when the fed funds target essentially reached its lower bound, the Fed used large-scale asset purchases to achieve further reductions in the real interest rate.』
『I’ll first discuss the lending responses and then talk about the interest rate cuts. I’ll then discuss how I believe economic events would have unfolded had there been no Fed.』
『I would say that most economists agree about how central banks should respond to financial panics. The crux of that agreed-upon response is that central banks have to be willing to lend freely to solvent firms, against a wide range of good collateral, at some kind of penalty rate.』
『First, it provides a source of funds to potential borrowers who are illiquid but nonetheless solvent.』
『Second, it provides a floor to collateral valuation. Private lenders know that they can always use collateral seized from a defaulting borrower as a vehicle to borrow money from the central bank.』
『That baseline use serves to spur private lending.』
『There is no doubt that these interventions saved many solvent firms from collapse during the financial crisis. Over time, panic eased and spreads in financial markets normalized. Once that happened, the private sector stopped borrowing from the Fed because it found the Fed’s penalty rates too onerous. As a result, the Fed was able to shut down its special lending facilities in 2010.』
『The goal of the central bank’s intervention is exactly to eliminate this panic-driven illiquidity.』
ということで、ここのコーナーでは「貸出を何億ドル実行したからどうした」というような定量的な説明は無く、定性的に『At their peak, the interventions made up more than a trillion dollars of Federal Reserve assets.』という説明が入っているだけでして、即ちCEでの目的は別にバランスシート拡大先にありきではない、という話ですわな。
『I’ve talked about how the fall in land prices generated a sharp increase in risk perceptions in financial markets, and how that in turn led to a financial crisis. I now want to turn to what I see as the second key effect of the fall in land prices.』
『This fall reduced the net worth of many households and firms.3 』 『3 Household net worth fell by over 25 percent from the second quarter of 2007 through the first quarter of 2009 (Fed Flow of Funds).』
『They responded by forgoing consumption and investment projects. The fall in household demand for consumption and firm demand for investment led in turn to a fall in output and employment,4 and put downward pressure on the price level.』『4 See Kocherlakota (2010) for a more extensive discussion of the relevant transmission mechanisms.』
詳しくはコチャラコタ総裁の昨年の講演でこの辺を詳しく説明しているようですな。
で、金利を下げた話と、金利が下げられないので資産の買い入れを実施しましたという説明であります。
『The FOMC reacted by lowering its target interest rate from 5.25 percent in August 2007 to a range of 0-25 basis points in December 2008. Since inflation expectations remained stable, the FOMC’s action has the effect of lowering the real interest rate facing households. Households respond by saving less and demanding more consumption. Similarly, firms undertake more investment projects. In this way, the FOMC can partially offset the impact on the economy of the loss of net worth.』
『Lowering rates, of course, may lead to undesirable inflationary pressures within the economy. However, the recent path of inflation shows little evidence of such pressures. On a year-over-year basis, core PCE inflation was running about 2.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007. It is now down to about 1 percent.』
『Indeed, given the ongoing deceleration in inflation and the high rate of unemployment, the FOMC would probably have liked to respond by cutting its target interest rate still further. The problem is that the target interest rate is essentially at zero and cannot go negative.』
ということで金利を下げつくしたので買い入れを実行しましたと。
『Instead, from December 2008 through March 2010, and again beginning in November 2010, the FOMC engaged in large-scale purchases of long-term Treasuries. The goal of these transactions is to lower long-term real interest rates and again offset the impact on the economy of the net worth shock.』
『Thus, the fall in land prices triggered an increase in risk perceptions and a decrease in household net worth. The increase in risk led to a major financial crisis that has been cured, thanks in no little part to actions by the Federal Reserve. The decrease in net worth led to a major recession and ongoing slow recovery. The Federal Reserve’s reduction in interest rates has lessened the impact of the net worth shock.』 FOMCが何もしなかったら資産下落による経済のショックは更に大きくなっていたでしょう、という事でこの「金利引下げ」の部分を締めています。つまり、資産買入プログラムの効果として、期待インフレ率の引き上げとポートフォリオリバランス効果を重視している、というのが読み取れるのではないかと思います。
で、更にこの金融政策の部分は『George-Meet Clarence』というFEDが無かったらどうなっていたでしょう、というお題の話と、『Did the Fed Cause the Bubble?』という直近のバブル発生は誰のせいなのよ、というお題の話があるのですが、例によって時間が無くなったので、リクエストでもあればまた後日に。
[外部リンク] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. 』(今回)
『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment.』(前回)
『Growth in household spending picked up late last year, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. 』(今回)
『Household spending is increasing at a moderate pace, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. 』(前回)
『Business spending on equipment and software is rising, while investment in nonresidential structures is still weak.』(今回)
『Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. 』(前回)
『Although commodity prices have risen, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, and measures of underlying inflation have been trending downward.』(今回)
『Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, but measures of underlying inflation have continued to trend downward. 』(前回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow.』
『To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November. In particular, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings and intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.』
『The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.』
毎度お馴染みのfor an extended periodを始めとしてここの文言も同じです。
『The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.』
ここも同じですな。で。最後が前回と違う訳でして・・・・・・
・反対者なしですかそうですか
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.』
ということで反対者がいないのはFOMCプロレス観戦的にはプロッサー先生辺りを捕まえて大滝秀治状態になって「お前の話はつまらん!」と言いたくなる所ですが、今後反対に転じたりすると第5パラグラフにある「to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments」の結果として反対に回りますという話になりますから、その辺の見立てがどうなるのか。経済見通しで来るのか金融環境で来るのか、はたまたインフレ期待で来るのか楽しみでもあります。
[外部リンク] the area of economic activity, there are some upside risks such as faster growth in emerging and commodity-exporting economies due to robust domestic demand and capital inflows from overseas.』
『The available data do suggest that most of the unemployed who left the labor force were young. The number of people under the age of 25 in the labor force fell by about 244,000 from November to December. 』
景気が回復したらこの人たちは戻ってくる事を期待したいと。
『My hope?and expectation?is that many of these people will return to the labor force as the economy improves in 2011.』
『Nonetheless, I do not believe that either unemployment or employment will improve rapidly in 2011. Startup businesses and other young firms are a key source of employment growth in the early stages of recoveries. As I’ve mentioned earlier, they are likely to find bank financing more challenging to obtain than usual. As well, 4.2 percent of the labor force has been unemployed for longer than six months. Historically, this group of workers has a low job-finding rate.』
『The central tendency of the November FOMC forecasts is that unemployment will remain above 9 percent throughout 2011. I would agree with those forecasts. Even more troublingly, I expect too that unemployment is likely to be higher than 8 percent as late as the end of 2012.』
『Finally, I turn to inflation. Inflation remains extraordinarily low. In the third quarter of 2010, overall PCE inflation?including all goods-was 0.8 percent. Core PCE inflation-stripping away energy and food-was 50 basis points. PCE food inflation was 26 basis points. And all of these figures are annualized.』
『These inflation levels are too low to be consistent with usual formulations of the Fed’s price stability mandate. More troublingly, inflation continued to trend downward in 2010. In the third quarter of 2009, annualized core PCE inflation was 1.5 percent. Hence, in the course of one year, quarterly inflation rates fell by 100 basis points. A further deceleration of the same magnitude in 2011 would drive inflation into negative territory.』
と言う所までが足元の話。
『With that said, I’m optimistic that inflation will actually turn north in 2011. Our Minneapolis Fed forecasting model predicts that, by the end of 2011, inflation will be between 1.5 and 2 percent. We can get another reading by looking at the prices of financial instruments called zero-coupon inflation-indexed swaps. Their current prices imply that, for the coming year, expected inflation will be roughly 1.7 percent.』
更に金融政策の説明は『George-Meet Clarence』という「FEDが無かったらどうなっていたでしょう」という話と、『Did the Fed Cause the Bubble?』という話になっているのですが、最後の部分では「あーた高金利の時だって住宅価格の急上昇は起きていたんですよ」というややインチキの香りが漂う説明となっておりまして、しかもじゃあ住宅バブルの要因とか責任を取るべきものがあるとすればそれは誰という話に関しては完全スルー体制というのが微妙ではあります。
『My speech today will have two distinct parts. In the first part, I will discuss my outlook for the economy in 2011. In the second part, I will look back in time to the Great Recession of 2007-09. My discussion will parallel the classic Frank Capra movie, “It’s a Wonderful Life.” In that movie, the hero, George Bailey, is granted the miraculous opportunity to see how other lives would have been affected if he had never existed. I will do the same for the Federal Reserve and describe how I believe the Great Recession of 2007-09 would have unfolded if the Fed did not exist.』
『To summarize: I expect that real output will grow slightly more rapidly in 2011 than in 2010. Household deleveraging and bank asset quality will remain a drag on the recovery. Unemployment will fall-but much more slowly than we would like. Finally, as is suggested by financial market data, I am optimistic that we will see some re-inflation in the coming year.』
『Even with the December changes in fiscal policy, I would say that I expect that real GDP growth will probably be closer to 3 percent than 4 percent in 2011.』
『I still see two major headwinds in the U.S. economy.』
『The first is that many households will continue to strive to rebuild their net worth positions in response to past-and possibly future-falls in residential land prices.』
『As I will explain in more detail later, I believe that the decline in household net worth, precipitated by falls in land values, was a key factor in generating the severity of the Great Recession. It will remain important in the recovery.』
『Many banks in the United States face ongoing issues with asset quality. For example, the FDIC problem bank list contains over 800 banks. Problem banks are less likely to take the risk of lending to small and/or younger firms and other entrepreneurial activity. Instead, they are more likely to preserve capital ratios by limiting their asset growth and allocating their lending staff to working out loans to existing borrowers.』
『Indeed, as the economy improves, I suspect that this headwind will become evenmore important.』
経済が回復するとこの向かい風要因は更に重要になってくるとはどう言う事でしょうか。
『In 2010, our information at the Minneapolis Fed indicates that small businesses were reluctant to expand because of ongoing uncertainties about product demand. As a result, their demand for bank financing remained low. In 2011, as the economy improves, I expect loan demand to rise accordingly?but banks with poor asset quality will continue to focus on capital preservation rather than loan expansion.』
『Employment data released last Friday indicated that the unemployment rate fell to 9.4 percent in December from 9.8 percent in November. While any decline is welcome news, I do not think this single data point signals a rapid recovery in labor markets. Employment growth remains disappointingly low?nonfarm employment increased by only 103,000 in December.』
『I think that it is important to understand how unemployment fell by 40 basis points from November to December, even though employment growth was relatively low.』
ということで、ここから説明が始まるのですが、この部分に関しては11月22日に行われた講演『Monetary Policy, Labor Markets, and Uncertainty』により詳しい話がありまして、こちらの8ページから10ページまで3ページ分丸々使って説明しているのを読むのが吉なのですが、多分こっちまでネタにしている時間は無さそうなのであたくしの気が向くかネタが切れるかリクエストがきたら下記講演ネタもやるかもしれません(エエカゲン)。
[外部リンク] Policy, Labor Markets, and Uncertainty』 ↑(これは今回のネタにはしませんので念の為)
『That reason has nothing to do with monetary policy. It has everything to do with the taxation and fiscal and regulatory policies of the states. The cost of capital does not explain the different economic performances of the states; the cost of doing business has everything to do with those differences. However well-meaning tax and regulatory initiatives in the laggard states may have been when they were conceived and levied, they have had unintended consequences that have led to economic underperformance and job destruction.』
『Similarly, the key to correcting the underperformance of the American economy and American job creation does not rest with the Federal Reserve. It is in the hands of those who make fiscal and regulatory policy.』
『The Fed has reduced the cost of business borrowing to the lowest levels in decades. It has seen to it that liquidity is widely available to banks and businesses. It has kept the economy from deflating and it has kept inflation under control. This has helped raise the economic tide. Recent data make clear that the risks of a double-dip recession and deflation have ebbed and that economic growth and job creation are beginning to flow. Yet the ships of job-creating investment remain, for the most part, tied to the docks?or worse, choose to sail for foreign ports where tax and regulatory conditions are more favorable, very much in the same way that Ohio, Michigan, New York and California businesses and workers have navigated to Texas.』
『I don’t believe this has much to do with the Fed. None of my business contacts, large or small, publicly held or private, are complaining about the cost of borrowing, the lack of liquidity or the availability of capital. All express concern about taxes, regulatory burdens and the lack of understanding in Washington of what incentivizes private-sector job creation. All are stymied by a Congress and an executive branch that have appeared to them to be unaware of, if not outright opposed to, what fires the entrepreneurial spirit. Many have begun to feel that opportunities for earning a better and more secure return on investment are larger elsewhere than here at home.』
『Today, I will speak to the truth as I see it. I speak only for myself and my colleagues at the Dallas Fed and not for anybody else on the FOMC or elsewhere in the System. I suspect this will immediately become clear.』
『I have been outspoken about the limits of monetary policy as a salve for the nation’s fiscal pathology.[4] The Fed has done much, in my words, to provide the bridge financing until the new Congress gets to work restructuring the tax and regulatory incentives American businesses need to confidently expand their payrolls and capital expenditures here at home.[5]』
『After much debate―which included strong concern expressed by one member with a formal vote and others, like me, who did not have voting rights in 2010―the FOMC collectively decided in November to temporarily undertake a program to purchase U.S. Treasuries that, when added to previous policy initiatives, roughly means we are purchasing the equivalent of all newly issued Treasury debt through June.』
『To avoid that perception, we must vigilantly protect the integrity of our delicate franchise. There are limits to what we can do on the monetary front to provide the bridge financing to fiscal sanity. Last Friday, speaking in Germany, [European Central Bank President] Jean-Claude Trichet said it best: “Monetary policy responsibility cannot substitute for government irresponsibility.”[6]』
『The entire FOMC knows the history and the ruinous fate that is meted out to countries whose central banks take to regularly monetizing government debt.』
『Barring some unexpected shock to the economy or financial system, I think we have reached our limit. I would be wary of further expanding our balance sheet. But here is the essential fact I want to emphasize today: The Fed could not monetize the debt if the debt were not being created by Congress in the first place.』 つーことで、主に財政マネタイズ懸念からの説明に留めていますな。
『In November, the FOMC decided to purchase an additional $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities through the end of the second quarter of 2011. It is no secret that I have expressed doubts about whether the benefits of this policy, commonly referred to as QE2, exceed the costs. These doubts were based on my reading of the economic outlook and the nature of the challenges that the economy faced.』
『The first round of large-scale asset purchases began nearly two years ago, after the Fed reduced the federal funds rate to near zero. That program, completed in March 2010, added roughly $1.75 trillion in agency mortgage-backed securities, agency debt, and long-term Treasuries to our balance sheets. If the Fed completes the full amount of the second round, the Fed’s balance sheet will have more than tripled since mid-2007.』
『That is, as the supply of longer-term Treasuries available to the public is reduced, prices of Treasuries should rise, which means yields should fall. Yields on similar assets are also expected to fall as the public rebalances portfolios away from Treasuries to other similar assets. Just as in conventional monetary policy, lower interest rates would stimulate business and consumer demand and increase exports, thus lending support to the recovery.』
『The Fed’s first purchase program worked to lower interest rates, although estimates of the effect vary quite a lot. These purchases were done at a time when financial markets were highly disrupted and asset risk premiums were extremely elevated. But markets are no longer disrupted. Thus, it seems unlikely that we can expect the effects to operate through the same channels as before.』
『Even if we did, it is not clear to me that a modest reduction in long-term interest rates will do much to speed up the reduction in the unemployment rate.』
『Some commentators thought that even if the benefits were limited, the costs were small and the action was worth taking, given the concerns that many had about the state of the economy. Other commentators argued for the policy because the fiscal authorities were unable to act, even though fiscal policy would have been the more appropriate policy tool to address some of the challenges we faced. I view both of these arguments as flawed.』
『It is a serious mistake to view monetary policy as a substitute for fiscal policy. Doctors must diagnose the disease correctly in order to prescribe the right medicine. If the wrong drug is administered, the physician might not only fail to cure the patient, but might also make matters worse. To suggest that monetary policymakers must act simply because fiscal policymakers were unable or unwilling to act is not the proper way to conduct policy.』
『As to the cost-benefit analysis, the costs of this policy are likely to be seen only in the future, but they must be part of the analysis when the policy is undertaken, not dismissed to be dealt with later.』
『As I discussed earlier, monetary policy must be forward-looking because it works with a lag. This means that the Fed will need to begin removing policy accommodation before the unemployment rate has returned to an acceptable level in order to avoid overshooting, which would result in greater instability in the economy.』
『So how do we exit from this accommodative policy? While the high level of excess reserves on the Fed’s balance sheet is largely benign now, that will change as banks become more willing to lend. As economic conditions improve and those excess reserves begin to flow out into the economy, inflationary pressures will grow. And given the magnitude of those reserves, these pressures could be significant. This is one reason I feel confident that sustained deflation is highly unlikely.』
『To prevent inflation from becoming a serious problem, the Fed must be able to remove or isolate those reserves.』
というのはまあ皆さん指摘の通り。
『The Fed is developing and testing tools to help us prevent such a rapid explosion in money to address this looming challenge. But we won’t know the full effect of these new tools until we use them. Nor will we know how rapidly or how high we may need to raise rates. The larger our balance sheet, the greater our challenges to successfully navigate an exit strategy without disrupting the economy and while keeping inflation under control.』
『The FOMC statements in November and December indicated that we will regularly review the asset purchase program in light of incoming economic information and adjust it as needed to foster our long-run goals of price stability and maximum sustainable employment. I have taken this intention to regularly review the program seriously.』
資産買入プログラムを真剣にレビューをする宣言キタキタキタ。
『If the economy begins to grow more quickly and the sustainability of this recovery continues to gain traction, then the purchase program will need to be reconsidered along with other aspects of our very accommodative policy stance.』
これはこれは。
『We are a year and a half into a recovery, although a modest one. The aggressiveness of our accommodative policy may soon backfire on us if we don’t begin to gradually reverse course.』
『On the other hand, if serious risks of deflation or deflationary expectations emerge, then we would need to take that into account as we adjust our policy stance.』
昨日に続きこの講演から [外部リンク] to inflation, the headline consumer price index (CPI) has risen about 1 percent over the last year. Core CPI inflation, excluding food and energy, has been just less than 1 percent this past year. While inflation is currently lower than the 1-1/2 to 2 percent level many monetary policymakers would prefer, it does not follow that sustained deflation is imminent or even likely. While I do expect that inflation will be subdued in the near term, I do not see a significant risk of a sustained deflation.』
『Respondents to the Philadelphia Fed’s fourth-quarter Survey of Professional Forecasters released in November and the Livingston Survey released in December also saw little chance of deflation in 2011.』
『It is useful to remember that the U.S. saw average consumer price inflation of just 1.3 percent through most of the 1950s and early 1960s. This period of low inflation did not lead to fears of deflation nor did it lead to economic stagnation. Low inflation is not generally a bad thing.』
『Moreover, brief periods of lower-than-desired inflation or even temporary deflation are unlikely to materially affect economic outcomes as long as longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored and the public continues to see the Fed’s promise to maintain price stability as credible.』
『The Fed’s challenges are greater, however, when monetary policy finds it difficult to respond because rates are already near zero. In that case, a loss of credibility resulting in a decline in inflation expectations would lead to an increase in the real interest rate, which would encourage consumers and businesses to save more and spend less.』
『Given that the Fed’s policy rate is now close to zero, a decline in inflation expectations would be unwelcome and could undermine the recovery. Fortunately, this is not happening.』
『Expectations of medium- to long-term inflation have remained relatively stable because people expect the Fed to take appropriate action to keep inflation low, positive, and stable.』
ということですな。
・そして物価見通しは何気に強くねえかこれ
『As the recovery continues, I anticipate that inflation will accelerate toward 1-1/2 to 2 percent over the course of the next two years.』
『We are already beginning to see acceleration in some commodity prices. Manufacturers responding to our monthly Business Outlook Survey are increasingly reporting rising cost of inputs, including energy and raw materials, and they are projecting that they will be forced to pass on these cost increases to consumers and businesses in 2011.』
『As we begin the new year, many forecasters are revising their outlooks to incorporate the latest economic data and the anticipated effects of the tax package approved by Congress in December. Although most forecasts assumed that some tax package would be approved, the details are now being factored into many models. My own view is that the tax compromise’s biggest impact derives from the reduction in uncertainty about tax rates for consumers and businesses over the next couple of years. Unfortunately, fiscal challenges still loom large for the new Congress and the economy.』
『Let me now turn to some observations on monetary policy.』
さあさあ来ましたよ。
『The last couple of years have been an extraordinary time for policymakers. We have been forced to react with speed to new challenges that have sometimes been outside the usual frameworks we rely on for policy guidance. That does not mean that economic models are no longer helpful; they most definitely are. But because of the unusual environment, there is less consensus among economists about the right answers to some of the most difficult and challenging questions.』
『As a result, it is not surprising that the debate about what constitutes the most desirable policy is vigorous, with bright and talented people on every side.』
その結果として、あるべき政策についての議論が活発化するのは驚くべき事ではありません(キリッ)。
『That is as it should be, in my view. I am fond of quoting the American journalist Walter Lippmann, who said, “Where all men think alike, no one thinks very much.” Healthy debate is necessary for informed decisions and results in better policy decisions.』
『These debates have gone on inside the Fed, just as they have gone on in the media and in the economics profession. Some have suggested that it is counter-productive for policymakers to express differing opinions, as it confuses markets and creates uncertainty. I find such arguments misdirected.』
『First, the uncertainty is real. It would be disingenuous and misleading to suggest otherwise. The central bank owes the public clear communication and as much transparency as is feasible. For policymakers to project a false sense of certainty would fail that test and deeply trouble me.』
『Second, for monetary policy to be successful, policymakers, and the Fed as an institution, must earn the public’s confidence. Confidence is important in preserving the Fed’s credibility, which is something that is hard to earn but easy to lose.』
『Unanimity is not the natural state of affairs in life - nor is it inside the halls of the Federal Reserve. For policymakers to feign unanimity only serves to undermine the institution’s transparency.』
『When the final estimates are released, I expect that GDP growth will be between 2-1/2 and 3 percent for 2010 and will pick up to 3 to 3-1/2 percent annually in 2011 and 2012. My forecast for 2011 changed only modestly during the past year, and I remain confident that the economy is on track for continued moderate recovery. As with all forecasts, this projection carries some risks. But for now, I expect moderate growth overall, with strength in some sectors more than offsetting weakness in others.』(フォントの関係で改変箇所あり)
『The private sector added over a million jobs in 2010. Unfortunately, the pace of employment growth hasn’t been strong enough to have much of an effect on the unemployment rate. However, recent data have been somewhat more encouraging. New claims for unemployment insurance have been trending down, as have continuing claims. In December, the economy added about 100,000 jobs and payrolls were revised up in both October and November. In addition, the unemployment rate fell from 9.8 to 9.4 percent in December. I expect this number may bounce around in the near term, but the unemployment rate will gradually recover as hiring improves enough to allow the unemployed as well as those people who have left the labor force to find jobs.』
『Many workers may be forced to find jobs in new and unfamiliar industries. For instance, the contraction in the real estate sector and in sectors closely related to residential construction, such as mortgage brokerage, means that many workers will likely need to find jobs in other industries or fields and that will take time.』
『The productivity gains occurring in other sectors also suggest that many workers may need updated skills to find their next job. This may be particularly relevant for the long-term unemployed.』
そういやこんなのが。 [外部リンク] Outlook and Challenges for Monetary Policy』ということで、これからFOMCで投票するということもあるのか中々気合の入った内容になっておりまするが、まずは手抜きにも程があるのですが最初と最後を読むのだ(中身は明日以降)。
・物価安定重視の政策スタンスで原理原則重視のイメージです
冒頭の『Introduction』の所から。
『The goals of monetary policy are set by Congress in the Federal Reserve Act, which states that the Fed should conduct monetary policy to “promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” I have long believed that the most effective way monetary policy can contribute to maximum employment and moderate long-term interest rates is by ensuring price stability over the longer term. Price stability is also critical in promoting financial stability.』
『The Fed seeks to achieve these objectives by influencing the cost and availability of credit through its decisions about interest rates and the supply of money. These decisions are the primary responsibility of the FOMC - the Federal Open Market Committee - the group within the Fed charged with setting monetary policy.』
『Since monetary policy affects the economy with a lag, the FOMC must be forward-looking in setting appropriate monetary policy. Therefore, I want to begin my remarks with a review of the nation’s economic recovery and my outlook for growth and inflation. I will then offer some observations on current monetary policy, including the Fed’s current program of large-scale asset purchases.』
『In conclusion, our nation’s economy is now emerging from the worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression. A slow but sustainable economic recovery is under way, and I expect annual growth to be in the 3 to 3-1/2 percent range over the next two years.』(3-1/2の所はフォントの関係で改変しました)景気は緩やかながら持続的回復を続けており向こう2年間の成長率は3〜3.5%となるでしょうとな。
『As the economy continues to gain strength and optimism grows among businesses, hiring will increase. The unemployment rate, however, will decline to acceptable levels only gradually. The shocks and dislocations we experienced from the financial crisis were significant, and it will take some time for the imbalances in labor markets to be resolved.』
『The Federal Reserve remains committed to promoting price stability over the intermediate to longer term. This is the most effective way in which monetary policy can contribute to economic conditions that foster maximum sustainable employment and economic growth. Finding the right path for monetary policy in such challenging times will require thoughtful deliberation. We should acknowledge the debate as a healthy process that adds to transparency and enhances credibility.』
『As we move forward, I will continue to monitor incoming economic developments and update my economic outlook as necessary. Should evidence suggest that monetary policy is not consistent with our longer-term goals, then I will support an appropriate adjustment to policy.』
[外部リンク] contrast, securities purchases by the Federal Reserve put downward pressure directly on longer-term interest rates by reducing the stock of longer-term securities held by private investors.3 』
『3. More specifically, the Fed's purchases should tend to reduce term premiums, a component of the yield to longer-term securities. Longer-term interest rates are also influenced by market expectations of the future path for short-term interest rates, which in turn depend on the outlook for the economy and so for the target federal funds rate.』
『In particular, the Federal Reserve's earlier program of asset purchases appeared to be successful in influencing longer-term interest rates, raising the prices of equities and other assets, and improving credit conditions more broadly, thereby helping stabilize the economy and support the recovery.』
『In light of this experience, and with the economic outlook still unsatisfactory, late last summer the FOMC began to signal to financial markets that it was considering providing additional monetary policy accommodation by conducting further asset purchases. At its meeting in early November, the FOMC formally announced its intention to purchase an additional $600 billion in Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, about one-third of the value of securities purchased in its earlier programs. The FOMC also maintained its policy, adopted at its August meeting, of reinvesting principal received on the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities.』
『The FOMC stated that it will review its asset purchase program regularly in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to meet its objectives. Importantly, the Committee remains unwaveringly committed to price stability and, in particular, to maintaining inflation at a level consistent with the Federal Reserve's mandate from the Congress.4 』
『4. Most Committee participants judge that, in the longer term, inflation in the range of 2 percent or a bit less appropriately balances the risk that adverse economic shocks could tip the economy into deflation against the benefits of low and stable inflation. An inflation rate modestly above zero also reduces the probability that monetary policymakers will be constrained from easing policy when necessary by the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Many central banks around the world have come to similar quantitative judgments about the long-run level of inflation that best fosters growth and stability.』
『In that regard, it bears emphasizing that the Federal Reserve has all the tools it needs to ensure that it will be able to smoothly and effectively exit from this program at the appropriate time.』
必要な時には直ぐに出口政策が可能なんです(キリッ)という事ですが・・・・
『Importantly, the Federal Reserve's ability to pay interest on reserve balances held at the Federal Reserve Banks will allow it to put upward pressure on short-term market interest rates and thus to tighten monetary policy when needed, even if bank reserves remain high.』
『Moreover, the Fed has invested considerable effort in developing methods to drain or immobilize bank reserves as needed to facilitate the smooth withdrawal of policy accommodation when conditions warrant.』
『If necessary, the Committee could also tighten policy by redeeming or selling securities on the open market.』
まあ最終兵器ですが最終兵器だけに金融市場がエライコッチャになるでしょうなあ。
・この説明は議会向けだがオモロイ
次のパラグラフから。
『As I am appearing before the Budget Committee, it is worth emphasizing that the Fed's purchases of longer-term securities are not comparable to ordinary government spending.』
我々の実施する長期債券購入プログラムは「財政支出」ではないんです!!という話。
『In executing these transactions, the Federal Reserve acquires financial assets, not goods and services. Ultimately, at the appropriate time, the Federal Reserve will normalize its balance sheet by selling these assets back into the market or by allowing them to mature.』
『In the interim, the interest that the Federal Reserve earns from its securities holdings adds to the Fed's remittances to the Treasury; in 2009 and 2010, those remittances totaled about $120 billion.』
『The extent to which commodity price increases would affect UK inflation would depend in part upon what caused them and hence upon the behaviour of the sterling exchange rate. If higher commodity prices signalled a rise in generalised inflationary pressure in the world economy, it was possible that the sterling exchange rate would appreciate to offset the effects of that pressure on domestic inflation. But it was less likely that there would be an offsetting appreciation of the exchange rate if, because of supply constraints, world prices of commodities rose relative to those of finished goods and services.』
『Although it is likely that economic growth will pick up this year and that the unemployment rate will decline somewhat, progress toward the Federal Reserve's statutory objectives of maximum employment and stable prices is expected to remain slow.』
回復が遅れますよという話はいつものネタですわな。
『The projections submitted by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants in November showed that, notwithstanding forecasts of increased growth in 2011 and 2012, most participants expected the unemployment rate to be close to 8 percent two years from now. At this rate of improvement, it could take four to five more years for the job market to normalize fully. 』
『FOMC participants also projected inflation to be at historically low levels for some time. Very low rates of inflation raise several concerns: 』
で、その幾つかの問題ですが・・・・
『First, very low inflation increases the risk that new adverse shocks could push the economy into deflation, that is, a situation involving ongoing declines in prices. Experience shows that deflation induced by economic slack can lead to extended periods of poor economic performance; indeed, even a significant perceived risk of deflation may lead firms to be more cautious about investment and hiring.』
『Second, with short-term nominal interest rates already close to zero, declines in actual and expected inflation increase, respectively, both the real cost of servicing existing debt and the expected real cost of new borrowing. By raising effective debt burdens and by inhibiting new household spending and business investment, higher real borrowing costs create a further drag on growth.』
『Finally, it is important to recognize that periods of very low inflation generally involve very slow growth in nominal wages and incomes as well as in prices. (I have already alluded to the recent deceleration in average hourly earnings.)』
『Thus, in circumstances like those we face now, very low inflation or deflation does not necessarily imply any increase in household purchasing power.』
・・・・・・????? 実質購買水準はうっかりしたら上昇するんじゃないの???
『Rather, because of the associated deterioration in economic performance, very low inflation or deflation arising from economic slack is generally linked with reductions rather than gains in living standards.』
『In a situation in which unemployment is high and expected to remain so and inflation is unusually low, the FOMC would normally respond by reducing its target for the federal funds rate. However, the Federal Reserve's target for the federal funds rate has been close to zero since December 2008, leaving essentially no scope for further reductions. 』
『Consequently, for the past two years the FOMC has been using alternative tools to provide additional monetary accommodation. Notably, between December 2008 and March 2010, the FOMC purchased about $1.7 trillion in longer-term Treasury and agency-backed securities in the open market. The proceeds of these purchases ultimately find their way into the banking system, with the result that depository institutions now hold a high level of reserve balances with the Federal Reserve.』
『Although longer-term securities purchases are a different tool for conducting monetary policy than the more familiar approach of managing the overnight interest rate, the goals and transmission mechanisms of the two approaches are similar. 』
『Conventional monetary policy works by changing market expectations for the future path of short-term interest rates, which, in turn, influences the current level of longer-term interest rates and other financial conditions. These changes in financial conditions then affect household and business spending. By contrast, securities purchases by the Federal Reserve put downward pressure directly on longer-term interest rates by reducing the stock of longer-term securities held by private investors.3 These actions affect private-sector spending through the same channels as conventional monetary policy. In particular, the Federal Reserve's earlier program of asset purchases appeared to be successful in influencing longer-term interest rates, raising the prices of equities and other assets, and improving credit conditions more broadly, thereby helping stabilize the economy and support the recovery.』
『3. More specifically, the Fed's purchases should tend to reduce term premiums, a component of the yield to longer-term securities. Longer-term interest rates are also influenced by market expectations of the future path for short-term interest rates, which in turn depend on the outlook for the economy and so for the target federal funds rate.』
『In light of this experience, and with the economic outlook still unsatisfactory, late last summer the FOMC began to signal to financial markets that it was considering providing additional monetary policy accommodation by conducting further asset purchases. 』
