逆さ絵おじさんの会見とSEP(景気見通し)の方が材料になったという話ですが、[外部リンク] own responsibility」と仰せのようでしたが、あたくし脳味噌が足りないのでよく判らないのですが、「話はFOMCの見解だが発言内容に関しては私の責任で行うので」という話になるんですよね。今回からの会見って基本的に「FOMCの政策を説明する場所」なのですからコンセンサス取れていない話されても困るんですけどにゃ。
[外部リンク] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the economic recovery is proceeding at a moderate pace and overall conditions in the labor market are improving gradually.』(今回)
『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that the economic recovery is on a firmer footing, and overall conditions in the labor market appear to be improving gradually.』(前回)
景気全体の話については「on a firmer footing」(より堅い足取り?)となっていたのが「proceeding at a moderate pace」(緩やかなペースで進展している)となっているので上方修正になるんですかね。
『Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand. However, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector continues to be depressed. 』(今回)
家計とか住宅投資とかの話は前回と同じなので前回分引用割愛。
『Commodity prices have risen significantly since last summer, and concerns about global supplies of crude oil have contributed to a further increase in oil prices since the Committee met in March. 』(今回)
『Commodity prices have risen significantly since the summer, and concerns about global supplies of crude oil have contributed to a sharp run-up in oil prices in recent weeks. 』(前回)
『Inflation has picked up in recent months, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable and measures of underlying inflation are still subdued.』(今回)
『Nonetheless, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, and measures of underlying inflation have been subdued.』(前回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The unemployment rate remains elevated, and measures of underlying inflation continue to be somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. 』(今回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate remains elevated, and measures of underlying inflation continue to be somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. 』(前回)
前回あった「currently」が抜けているだけですかな。
『Increases in the prices of energy and other commodities have pushed up inflation in recent months. The Committee expects these effects to be transitory, but it will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations. The Committee continues to anticipate a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability. 』(今回)
『The recent increases in the prices of energy and other commodities are currently putting upward pressure on inflation. The Committee expects these effects to be transitory, but it will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations. The Committee continues to anticipate a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability. 』(前回)
1番目の文章が足元の商品等の価格の与えるインフレ圧力に関して今回「have pushed up inflation in recent months」と最近の物価上昇に言及していますけれども、「影響は一時的だがインフレ期待の動向に注意」「物価の安定によって徐々に資源の活用状況は高いレベルになっていくと予想」という部分には変化がありませんですな。あと何か会見冒頭の説明部分で「second-round effect」がどうしたといってたように聞こえましたが、多分従来の流れからして「足元で商品や原油価格上昇の2次的効果は見られないが今後も注視する」程度の話をしたんでしょと思うだよ。
○第3パラグラフでは「資産構成の見直し」に言及したのが結構斬新だと思ったのだが
んでまあ金融政策に関する第3パラグラフですが。
『To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November. 』(今回)
まあ当たり前だがここの文言は前回と同じ。
『In particular, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings and will complete purchases of $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the current quarter. 』(今回)
『In particular, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings and intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011. 』(前回)
『The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings in light of incoming information and is prepared to adjust those holdings as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability. 』(今回)
『The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.』(前回)
6月で買入プログラムの一旦終了が見えているので「買入ペースを見直す」という部分が抜けるのはまあテクニカルに当たり前ですからそっちは良いのですが、小見出しでも書いたように、今回見直すものの対象に「composition of its securities holdings」とFEDの資産構成のレビューを行い、必要があればその調整を行う、という文言が入りましたので、これはつまり先行きの金融政策においてMBSやら長期国債やらの売却がありまっせと思いっきり予告と言うか瀬踏みをしているように見える訳でして、いやまあいずれそうなるのかなあとも思ったわけですが、いきなり売りを想像させる話を打ち込んでくるとはちと早い気がしましたけどどうっすかね。
○第4パラグラフの「for an extended period」とか第5パラグラフの宣言文みたいなのは変化無し
変化無しなので引用だけ。第4パラグラフ。
『The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. 』(今回)
第5パラグラフ。
『The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.』(今回)
○今回も全員一致ね
第6パラグラフ。
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.』(今回)
『Inflation had risen to well above the 2% target as a consequence of higher energy and other commodity prices, increased VAT and the impact of the past depreciation of sterling. It was likely to remain well above the 2% target for much of 2011. Nevertheless, the Committee’s central view remained that a substantial margin of spare capacity in the economy was likely to persist for some time and would bear down on inflation in the medium term, as the impact of the factors temporarily boosting inflation waned.』
『On the downside, the key risk was that private final demand would not pick up sufficiently strongly to offset the impact on aggregate demand of the fiscal consolidation, and that the resulting margin of spare capacity would cause inflation to fall materially below the target in the medium term.』
『Data on output during the month had been mixed and did not provide clear guidance about the extent to which activity had recovered since the slowdown in growth at the end of 2010. Indicators of output in the manufacturing and services sectors pointed to reasonably healthy growth. But weak output in the construction and energy sectors was likely to depress GDP growth in the first quarter of 2011, and assessing the outlook for economic activity as a whole was likely to be complicated by the volatility in these sectors.』
『On the upside, the key risk was that the period of elevated inflation could persist for longer than the Committee expected if there were further pass-through from the past depreciation of sterling; if externally generated inflation pressures continued to raise CPI inflation; or if expectations of higher future inflation became entrenched, leading households and businesses to set higher wages and prices.』
というのもこれまたいつもの話ですが。
『The price of oil had risen further during the month, but this was likely to have been influenced by temporary supply disruptions. CPI inflation had fallen sharply in March, but until more detail became available it was hard to know how to interpret this. In the light of recent developments in the prices of energy, imported commodities and other goods, the near-term path of CPI inflation was likely to be higher than in the February Inflation Report.』
『And there remained a significant risk that inflation would exceed 5% in the near term. Survey-based measures of inflation expectations from household surveys had been mixed, while those derived from financial markets had been little changed. It was encouraging that the data on pay settlements suggested that wage growth had remained muted. There was a risk, however, that the rate of wage growth consistent with hitting the inflation target in the medium term could be lower than the Committee had previously assumed if labour productivity growth remained weak.』
『The risks to medium-term inflation in both directions were substantial. It was possible that medium-term inflation would deviate from the target in one direction or the other, perhaps materially. Overall, however, the balance between the upside and downside risks to the outlook for inflation in the medium term had not changed sufficiently over the month for Committee members to change their views of the appropriate stance of monetary policy.』
『Developments over the month had, on balance, not been sufficient to alter that view. There remained a material chance that the prolonged period of above-target inflation could cause companies and households to expect inflation to come back to target only slowly and this could become embedded in wage and price-setting. Waiting for this risk to crystallise before beginning to tighten monetary policy could be costly. Moreover, the continuing growth in employment suggested that the degree of spare capacity could be less than the Committee had assumed and that the degree of downward pressure on prices could be commensurately lower.』
[外部リンク] international economy』の所では日本の震災の影響が不透明という話をしていましたが、それ以外の部分は強い話が多くて、『Money, credit, demand and output』の冒頭でも生産が強くて製造業やサービス業の活動が強いという話をしています。その辺り全部引用すると長くなりすぎるのでスルー(どうせ後でもその辺の話が出ますので)しますが、まあ途中までは「あらら、景気強い話が続くじゃないの??」と思いながら読んでおったのですが・・・・・
第16パラグラフから。
『The prospects for consumption would have an important bearing on the outlook for activity. Consumer spending was estimated to have fallen during the second half of 2010 and to have been broadly flat over the year as a whole, consistent with stagnant real household income growth over that period. The near-term prospects for consumption had weakened further over the month. Survey-based measures pointed to weak consumption of services in the first quarter. The volume of retail sales had been broadly flat for some months. And surveys of consumer confidence had remained far below their historic average levels.』
『A key question was whether this softening in measures of household spending indicated that the medium-term outlook for consumption was weaker than the Committee had previously expected. The continuing squeeze on households’ real incomes, as a result of subdued post-tax pay growth and the elevated rate of near-term inflation, was likely to dampen consumption materially over the next year or so if some consumers had not yet fully adjusted their spending.』
『It was also possible that some people might seek to increase their rate of saving if, for example, they perceived future income prospects to be more uncertain.』
また、家計が将来の収入に対する不確実性から貯蓄性向を高めた場合には更に消費が抑制されますとな。
『Alternatively, the weakness in consumption growth might be temporary, due to factors such as the rise in the standard rate of VAT. Output growth was typically uneven during the early stages of economic recoveries, so some unevenness in consumption growth would not be surprising.』
『Nominal GDP had increased by 4.2% in 2010 and nominal domestic demand had risen by 5.6%. Nominal consumption had grown by 5%, close to its historic average rate. This might provide a positive signal about households’ and businesses’ willingness to spend.』
ほほう。
『But higher nominal spending might simply have been a mechanical consequence of tax changes and other factors that had raised prices.』
それは残念(棒読み)。
『Broad money and credit growth had remained weak, with M4 excluding the holdings of interbank intermediaries increasing by 0.5% on a three-month annualised basis in February and M4 lending rising by 2% on a similar basis. Subdued money and credit growth could nevertheless remain consistent with more robust nominal spending growth if companies continued to become less reliant on bank credit to fund investment.』
『Supply, costs and prices』の第22パラグラフから。ちなみに3月CPIが4.0%に低下するというのはMPC時点で速報の予想ベースで議事に乗っているのはここを見れば判ると思います。
『Despite the fall in CPI inflation in March, recent developments in the prices of energy, imported commodities and other goods indicated that the most likely near-term path of inflation would be higher than the Committee had thought at the time of the February Inflation Report.』
3月CPIは下がっているが近い期間の先行きに関しては2月のインフレレポートよりも高いと。
『Recent developments in wholesale gas and other energy prices pointed towards further likely increases in utility prices later this year. These factors represented disturbances to the price level whose direct impact on inflation should abate over time. But it would be a source of concern if import prices were to continue rising rapidly.』
エネルギー価格上昇が波及しだしているようで。
『Moreover, it was possible that there were further effects from the past depreciation of sterling still to come. Near-term developments in inflation were also a source of concern to the extent that businesses were finding it easier than might have been expected to pass on cost increases.』
『A key risk remained that expectations of above-target inflation would become entrenched, adding to wage and price pressures. The evidence from surveys about households’ medium and longer-term inflation expectations had been mixed. Implied measures of inflation expectations derived from financial market prices had shown no consistent pattern on the month. Options-based measures of uncertainty about the level of inflation in the United Kingdom, United States and euro area five to ten years ahead had remained elevated relative to the period before the financial crisis, but had not risen much further. It was possible that this reflected a view among market participants that the shocks affecting inflation would be larger or more persistent than before.』
『The evidence from published employment data and surveys of employment intentions had remained consistent with gentle growth in employment and the total number of hours worked. The LFS employment measure had increased by 32,000 in the three months to January by comparison with the previous non-overlapping three-month period and average hours worked had increased by around 1%. It was possible that the growth in employment over recent months indicated that underlying demand in the economy had been stronger than suggested by the official data. To the extent that it indicated that firms were less able to meet demand from existing resources, it might also be a sign that the degree of spare capacity in the economy was less than the Committee had assumed.』
ということで、最近時々この指摘が出ている訳ですが、雇用が予想よりも強くなっているというのはいわゆる「経済の余剰」(degree of spare capacity in the economy)がMPCが予想するよりも大きくないのではないか、という指摘が今回も出ていまして、この論点は従来より(今回もそうですが)「足元のインフレは上昇しているけれども、それは一時的な要因によるものであり、先行きで見た場合には経済の余剰によってインフレは押し下げられてターゲットに落ち着く」という理屈によって金融政策の現状維持をおこなっているロジックに対するカウンターとなりますので、まあ今回もキタコレという感じです。
つーかよ、過度の自粛で経済活動を必要以上に萎縮させるってこの前あんさん仰ってませんでしたっけ(ソースが産経なのがアレだが)?? [外部リンク] One important channel through which an increase in inflation expectations could lead to a sustained increase in inflation was through a pickup in wage growth. Pay settlements and total earnings had risen over the past year, but remained below pre-recession averages. The data on private sector wage settlements agreed so far in 2011 remained limited, but the additional evidence over the month had suggested that the underlying level of settlements remained muted. The contribution to pay growth of bonuses and regular pay drift had also remained subdued; annual whole-economy regular pay growth had been 2.2% in the three months to January. But there was a risk that pay growth could rise further in response to elevated inflation. And the sustainable rate of wage growth consistent with meeting the inflation target depended upon the growth rate of labour productivity, which had also remained weak in the latest data.』
[外部リンク] conclusion, let me say that we’ve come through an extraordinary period in our nation’s history. Despite all the challenges, there are good reasons for an affirmative view of the future, as long as policymakers follow coherent, sustainable long-term policy plans. I look forward to working with my colleagues in the Federal Reserve to meet the unique monetary policy challenges we face this year.』
『Many observers were disappointed with that modest growth, which was barely above the long-run trend rate that results from population growth and productivity growth. But at least real GDP has improved, since its level is now above its previous peak in the fourth quarter of 2007.』
回復の速度が遅いという話に関してはこの先に論点整理をしています。
『Other important indicators of growth have not recovered. The number of employees on nonfarm payrolls has risen by 1.4 million persons in the last 15 months, but that increase is dwarfed by the 8.7 million jobs that were lost in the previous two years. It’s fair to say that we have a ways to go before we will fully recover from what many are calling the Great Recession.』
『A natural question is whether growth could be stronger. After all, we can remember other times when the recovery from a recession was much more rapid than this current recovery. Consider the recoveries from the other two deep recessions in the postwar period, the recessions of 1981-82 and 1974-75. In the first six quarters after those recessions ended, real GDP growth averaged a 6.3 percent annual rate. Accompanying that output growth, job growth averaged 4.5 million persons in those two recoveries.』
『Two factors account for much of the sluggishness of this first stage of the recovery. The most obvious is the collapse of housing construction. We built too many houses in the boom years from 1995 to 2005, and many of those houses are now vacant and are pretty good substitutes for new construction. As a consequence, residential investment fell by 57 percent from the end of the housing boom to the end of the recession, and has fallen further in this recovery. In contrast, residential investment increased an average of 40 percent in the first year of recovery following the two recessions I mentioned earlier.』
『While housing is the most obvious factor dampening this recovery, residential investment accounts for only 2.4 percent of GDP at this point. A much larger factor is consumer spending, which accounts for over 70 percent of GDP. In the first five quarters of this recovery, consumer expenditures increased at an annual rate just below 2 percent. This is in contrast to the two other recessions, where household spending grew by an average of 6-1/2 percent in the first year of expansion.』(フォントの関係で分数表記改変しました)
『Thus a key to the outlook is consumer behavior. At over two-thirds of GDP, it is impossible to imagine a robust recovery without a substantial advance in consumer spending. And it is easy to understand why consumers were cautious at the beginning of the recovery. A large number of households experienced unemployment during the recession, and many more were uncertain about their job security. Wage growth fell during the recession. Housing prices declined, in many cases unexpectedly, significantly reducing the value of housing equity on the consumer balance sheet. Stock prices declined sharply during the recession. It should not be too surprising that consumers responded to this adversity by deferring nonessential spending and rebuilding their balance sheets. That behavior is reflected in statistics such as personal saving, which was slightly below 2 percent of income in mid-2007 but was slightly above 6 percent of income at the end of the recession.』
『Some important fundamentals underlying household spending plans have improved significantly since the recession’s end.』
外野的にはそうとは思えませんけどねえ・・・・・まあその先が具体的な経済指標。
『New claims for unemployment insurance have trended down since last summer. The unemployment rate has fallen by 1.3 percentage points from its peak, and as a result, those who are employed have reason to be more confident in their job security. Employment has picked up, with growth in the last two months averaging slightly better than 200,000 jobs per month. The employment components of the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly surveys of manufacturing and nonmanufacturing activity are at extremely high levels, signaling broad gains in labor market conditions.』
と、雇用環境の改善の話をこれでもかと並べまして。
『The stock market has more than doubled from its recession low point, and the net worth of households has increased by $8 trillion since early 2009. As these fundamentals have improved, so has consumer spending. Retail sales rose 5.2 percent in the first year of recovery, and in the next nine months improved at a 9.9 percent annualized growth rate.』
ということで、株価の上昇もあって個人消費が強くなっていますと。
○個人消費の改善は強固な上に輸出も伸びるとな
ということで個人消費の改善が強固だという話をしていますわな。
『I would stress that this higher pace of consumer spending is solidly grounded in improving fundamentals. Thus I expect robust growth to persist, as consumers see continuing improvements in job markets, incomes and wealth. Moreover, households have deferred nonessential spending for several years and a stock of pent-up demand has built up; as they gain confidence, it is likely they will draw down that stock and boost spending as a result.』
『Thus I see consumer spending as an important part of the recovery, but there are other areas of strength as well. Exports of goods and services have risen 18 percent since the end of the recession, adding 2 percent to real GDP growth. Yes, exports fell in February, as reported yesterday by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, but they remain well ahead of the fourth quarter’s pace. Moreover, the key fundamental factor for export demand is growth abroad, and here the prospects are excellent.』
『Although growth in the highly industrialized economies has been similar to domestic growth, many less developed economies are growing very rapidly. Especially notable are the two most populous countries; China’s GDP grew 9.7 percent last year and India’s GDP grew 8.3 percent. Again, this growth is solidly based, as these countries are deploying a large labor base more effectively. Japan’s growth miracle following World War II lasted for several decades, and the current crop of rapidly growing economies can look forward to several decades on the fast track.』
なんつーかね、新興国経済の成長に関してやたら強気のように見えるのですけれども・・・・・・
『As they grow, they will buy more of our products. Consumers who join their middle class will buy goods we make that were formerly luxuries, from pharmaceuticals to motion pictures. Demand for our agricultural products will rise. Most importantly, newly industrializing economies will want to acquire more capital goods in order to allow workers to move into more productive activities. For all of these reasons, export demand is likely to contribute strongly to U.S. growth for the foreseeable future as we produce goods and services that the world wants to buy, especially the most rapidly growing parts of the world.』
『One reason that the consensus of forecasters is so positive about the national economy is that they believe that the inflation environment will remain benign. Over the 12 months ending in February, the price index for personal consumption expenditure has risen 1.6 percent. In the absence of further energy price increases most forecasters do not foresee a significant acceleration in prices this year.』
物価が安定的に推移しているのも先行き見通しが強気の背景にありますとな。
『We should not take that outcome for granted, however. Commodity price increases have squeezed profit margins for many firms, and we are increasingly hearing that some are looking for an opportunity to raise prices. If firms see robust demand growth, they will be increasingly willing to pass input price increases through to their customers. Such increases can be common in this stage of the business cycle.』
『I am privileged to have the opportunity to speak before the Council on Foreign Relations today. Before beginning my speech, I would like to extend my heartfelt gratitude to the government and people of the United States for the support and encouragement concerning the tragic Great East Japan Earthquake.』
というのが冒頭での謝意ですが、最後のところでも改めて謝意と復興に向けたアピールをしています。
『VI. Concluding Remarks
As I mentioned earlier, nothing is more heartening in a crisis than the encouragement and support of friends overseas. I would like to conclude by thanking you once again for your friendship. With the resilience of Japanese society and the determination to rebuild, I am absolutely convinced that Japan's economy will overcome this trying time, successfully rebuild and become even better placed with greater growth potential. With that, I would like to conclude my remarks. Thank you for your attention.』
『The Bank of Japan's Fukushima branch, which is about 40 miles away from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, has been conducting its business as usual, and has been providing cash, including on the weekend immediately after the earthquake. Financial market stability has been maintained. I would also note that trading on the Tokyo Stock Exchange has been perfectly normal.』
『Looking beyond the world of settlement systems and financial markets, the people in the disaster areas have been calm and composed and full of a spirit of mutual cooperation, despite such a difficult living environment. In Tokyo, although electricity shortages are causing some inconvenience, people have accepted these new realities and adapted immediately. One of the visible changes is that people are increasingly deciding themselves to cancel parties or other events, as a mark of respect to the victims of the disaster and out of consideration for the feelings of the people affected. Another change is a substantial decline in visitors from overseas.』
『As was the case in the financial markets immediately after the failure of Lehman Brothers, when people's lives and safety are at risk, they sometimes tend to become excessively risk averse, which makes things worse. Incidentally, while foreign nationals residing in Tokyo increasingly left Japan for fear of radiation risk, it has tended to be overlooked that the radiation levels in Tokyo are roughly the same as in other major cities around the world, such as Paris and Berlin, or they were exposed to more radiation on the airplane than they would have been exposed to in Tokyo.』
[外部リンク] few participants expressed concern that the easing of credit conditions in some sectors was becoming or might become excessive as investors took on more risk in order to obtain higher yields. 』
『Participants observed that headline inflation was being boosted by higher prices for energy and other commodities, and that prices of other imported goods also had risen by a substantial, though smaller, amount. A number of business contacts indicated that they were passing on at least a portion of these higher costs to their customers or that they planned to try to do so later this year; however, contacts were uncertain about the extent to which they could raise prices, given current market conditions and the cautious attitudes toward spending still held by households and businesses.』
『Other participants noted that commodity and energy costs accounted for a relatively small share of production costs for most firms and that labor costs accounted for the bulk of such costs; moreover, they observed that unit labor costs generally had declined in recent years as productivity growth outpaced wage gains. Several participants noted that even large commodity price increases have had only limited effects on underlying inflation in recent decades. 』
『In contrast to headline inflation, core inflation and other measures of underlying inflation remained subdued, though they appeared to have bottomed out.』
抑制されているが底打ちとな。
『A number of participants noted that, with significant slack in resource utilization and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, underlying inflation likely would remain subdued for some time.』
これはいつもの「資源活用のスラックが基調的インフレを抑える」話ですな。
『However, the importance of resource slack as a factor influencing inflation ws debated.』
ほほう。
『Some participants pointed to research indicating that measures of slack were useful in predicting inflation. Others argued that, historically, such measures were only modestly helpful in explaining large movements in inflation; one noted the 2003-04 episode in which core inflation rose rapidly over a few quarters even though there appeared to be substantial resource slack. 』
『Participants expected that the boost to headline inflation from recent increases in energy and other commodity prices would be transitory and that underlying inflation trends would be little affected as long as commodity prices did not continue to rise rapidly and longer-term inflation expectations remained stable.』
『However, a significant increase in longer-term inflation expectations could contribute to excessive wage and price inflation, which would be costly to eradicate. Accordingly, participants considered it important to pay close attention to the evolution not only of headline and core inflation but also of inflation expectations.』
『In this regard, participants observed that measures of longer-term inflation compensation derived from financial instruments had remained stable of late, suggesting that longer-term inflation expectations had not changed appreciably, although measures of one-year inflation compensation had risen notably. Survey-based measures of inflation expectations also indicated that longer-term expected inflation had risen much less than near-term inflation expectations.』
ただまあ現状では顕著なインフレ期待の上昇は観測されていませんと。
『A few participants noted that the adoption by the Committee of an explicit numerical inflation objective could help keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.』
『Participants generally judged the risks to their forecasts of growth in economic activity to be roughly balanced. 』
上下リスクはバランスとしていますが。
『They continued to see some downside risks from the banking and fiscal strains in the European periphery, the continuing fiscal adjustments by U.S. state and local governments, and the ongoing weakness in the housing market. Several also noted the possibility of larger-than-anticipated near-term cuts in federal government spending. Moreover, the economic implications of the tragedy in Japan--for example, with respect to global supply chains--were not yet clear. 』
『On the upside, the improvement in labor market conditions in recent months raised the possibility that household spending--and subsequently business investment--might expand more rapidly than anticipated; if so, the recovery could be stronger than currently projected. Participants judged that the potential for more-widespread disruptions in oil production, and thus for a larger jump in energy prices, posed both downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation. Several of them indicated, in light of recent developments, that the risks to their forecasts of inflation had shifted somewhat to the upside. Finally, a few participants noted that if the large size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet were to lead the public to doubt the Committee's ability to withdraw monetary accommodation when appropriate, the result could be upward pressure on inflation expectations and so on actual inflation. 』
『To mitigate such risks, participants agreed that the Committee would continue its planning for the eventual exit from the current, exceptionally accommodative stance of monetary policy. In light of uncertainty about the economic outlook, it was seen as prudent to consider possible exit strategies for a range of potential economic outcomes. A few participants indicated that economic conditions might warrant a move toward less-accommodative monetary policy this year; a few others noted that exceptional policy accommodation could be appropriate beyond 2011.』
ということで、まあとりあえずそこだけ読んでおけば大丈夫という『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』を2回に分けて読んで見ましたが、まあ最後の所にありますように、どうも委員の間での意見がバラバラにも程がある状態で、これで6月のQE2期限に向けて話が進むのか非常に不安があるというところだと思います。
bewaadさんのエントリー紹介、というよりはbewaadさんのエントリーで思いっきりネタとして引用された自分の宣伝(おいおい)を昨日した訳でございますが、その時に申し上げた「4月1日のエントリーが非表示に変更されてます」状態は再び元に戻って1日のエントリーが読めるようになりましたので改めてリンクはっておきますね(本編と補足編がありますので日付ベースのURLをつけておきます)→[外部リンク] Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』(PDFだと6ページ)から参ります。あ、そこの貴方、証文出し遅れの上に手抜きとはケシカランとか突っ込まないようにorz
『In discussing intermeeting developments and their implications for the economic outlook, participants agreed that the information received since their previous meeting was broadly consistent with their expectations and suggested that the economic recovery was on a firmer footing. 』
『Participants noted that recent increases in the prices of oil and other commodities were putting upward pressure on headline inflation, but that measures of underlying inflation remained subdued.』
『They anticipated that the effects on inflation of the recent run-up in commodity prices would prove transitory, in part because they saw longer-term inflation expectations remaining stable. Moreover, a number of participants expected that slack in resource utilization would continue to restrain increases in labor costs and prices. 』
『Nonetheless, participants observed that rapidly rising commodity prices posed upside risks to the stability of longer-term inflation expectations, and thus to the outlook for inflation, even as they posed downside risks to the outlook for growth in consumer spending and business investment.』
『In addition, participants noted that unfolding events in the Middle East and North Africa, along with the recent earthquake, tsunami, and subsequent developments in Japan, had further increased uncertainty about the economic outlook.』
ということで、リスクはMENA地域と日本の今後とゆーことですにゃ。
○金融環境改善と個人消費の先行き
『 Some easing of credit conditions for households, particularly for auto loans, also appeared to be supporting growth in consumer spending. On the other hand, declining house prices remained a drag on household wealth and thus on consumer spending. In addition, sizable recent increases in oil and gasoline prices had reduced real incomes and weighed on consumer confidence. 』
『A further increase in business activity also indicated that the economic recovery remained on track. Industrial production posted solid gains, supported in part by continuing growth in U.S. exports. Business contacts in a number of regions reported they were more confident about the recovery; a growing number of contacts indicated they were planning for an expansion in hiring and production to meet an anticipated rise in sales. Manufacturing firms were particularly upbeat. Some contacts reported they were increasing capital budgets to undertake investment that had been postponed during the recession and early stages of the recovery; in some cases, firms were planning to expand capacity.』
ということで中々景気の良い話が続きます。
『Consistent with the anecdotal evidence, indicators of current and planned business investment in equipment and software continued to rise and surveys showed a further improvement in business sentiment. In addition, although residential construction remained weak, investment in energy extraction was growing and spending on commercial construction projects appeared to be bottoming out. 』
建設部門に関しても底打ちの傾向が見られるとか中々結構な話です。
○労働市場は改善基調にのってきましたとな
『Meeting participants judged that overall conditions in labor markets had continued to improve gradually. The unemployment rate had decreased significantly in recent months; other labor market indicators, including measures of job growth and hours worked, showed more-modest improvements.』
と明るめのイメージ。
『Several participants noted that the drop in unemployment was attributable more to people withdrawing from the labor force and to fewer layoffs than to increased hiring. Even so, participants agreed that gains in employment seemed to be on a gradually rising trajectory, although the recent data had been somewhat erratic and distorted by worse-than-usual weather in many parts of the country. In addition, surveys of employers showed that an increasing number of firms were planning to hire.』
『 Participants noted regional differences in the speed of improvement in labor markets; scattered reports indicated that firms in some regions were having difficulty hiring some types of highly skilled workers. Participants generally judged that there was still substantial slack in the labor market, though estimates of the degree of slack were admittedly imprecise and depended in part on judgments about a number of factors, including the extent to which labor force participation would increase as the recovery progresses and employment expands.』
概要 [外部リンク] 29 St. Louis Fed’s Bullard Discusses Recent Developments in U.S. Monetary Policy
講演のスライドショー [外部リンク] 24 St. Louis Fed’s Bullard Discusses Quantitative Easing, Global Inflation, and Commodity Standards
ではプラハでの講演要旨から。
『During his discussion, Bullard explained how the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing was “a classic easing of monetary policy” and “an effective tool, even while the policy rate is near zero.”』
『He also discussed the situation in early 2011, stating that “U.S. growth prospects remain reasonably good for 2011.” He added that recent global and domestic events “present considerable uncertainty, but can be resolved in benign ways.”』
米国経済に関しては先行きの不確実性はあるがより強い回復を予想するとな。
『Finally, Bullard talked about the path to normalization. “Discussion of the normalization of U.S. policy will likely return as the key issue in 2011,” he concluded.』
『Bullard stated that, relative to last summer, U.S. growth prospects improved by early 2011. “Private sector forecasters and the FOMC all marked up their forecasts,” he said. “Anecdotal reports were more bullish,” showing “profitable businesses with considerable cash and an improving outlook.” He added, “An improving economy 18 months post-recession is generally a strong positive.”』
どう見てもカンカンの強気です本当にありがとうございました。
『Noting the improved economic outlook since QE2 was implemented, “the natural debate is how and when the exit should begin,” Bullard said. “However, additional uncertainty has clouded this picture.”』
ということで、その不確実性は以下の通りだそうな。
『1.turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa and the associated uncertainty premium in oil prices;
2.the natural disaster and the damaged nuclear reactors in Japan;
3.the U.S. fiscal situation and the possibility of a government shutdown; and
4.continued uncertainty regarding resolution of the European sovereign debt crisis. 』
『Bullard pointed out that all four situations have the potential to escalate. If escalation occurs, he added, how and when to begin normalizing monetary policy would become less clear. “Still, the most likely prospect is that all four are resolved without becoming global macroeconomic shocks,” he said. 』
で、その次の『Normalization of U.S. Monetary Policy』というそのまんまにも程がある小見出しの部分から。
『Bullard said that U.S. monetary policy cannot remain ultra-accommodative indefinitely. “The process of normalizing policy, even once it begins, will still leave unprecedented policy accommodation on the table,” he stated. “The FOMC may not be willing or able to wait until all global uncertainties are resolved to begin normalizing policy.”』
『Bullard noted that normal monetary policy has two parts: “QE accommodation is removed by returning the balance sheet to an ordinary size over time,” and “the policy rate begins to approach levels associated with moderate expansion.”』
[外部リンク] all your eggs in one basket (11-15 & 18-21 April) 10:00am - 4:30pm
During the Easter break (11-15 & 18-21 April) the Museum presents Put all your eggs in one basket, a special event to entertain the whole family. There will be a treasure trail to find eggs hidden in the Museum, with a chocolate egg for every child who takes part. Children can also indulge their imagination by creating and decorating their own Easter basket to take home.
A family fun day out is guaranteed with all the other museum attractions including banknote jigsaws, a roller ball game, interactive displays and the opportunity for some safe cracking. You can also take control of a virtual hot air balloon and chart it on a stable course to simulate the role of the Bank in keeping inflation steady. Visitors can even try to lift a genuine gold bar with a current value of over £340,000 -although, weighing 13kg, it will take many people by surprise!
ちなみに、最後の文にある「try to lift a genuine gold bar with a current value of over £340,000」って奴ですが、指をフックのようにして延べ棒に引っ掛けると持ち上がるようなのですが、そんなのが出来るのは博物館の係員だけだと思います(^^)。
