『8 Indicators for the second quarter had continued to point to a broadly based slowing in the pace of global activity. The JP Morgan global manufacturing PMI, excluding Japan, had fallen again in May, as had the comparable services index, albeit by rather less. Taken together, these surveys indicated that global growth in the second quarter would be weaker than the Committee had assumed at the time of its May Inflation Report.』
『9 On one view, it was possible that the apparent slowdown in activity could be explained simply by the disruption to global supply chains caused by the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, together with the dampening impact of elevated oil prices.』
『The weakness of automotive manufacturing output in the United States and the slowdown in consumer spending growth there could be consistent with that.』
『On that view, unless oil prices rose further, activity might be expected to recover over the coming quarters as supply chains were re-established. Over the past month, the dollar price of Brent crude oil had fallen by almost 3%, notwithstanding an increase on the first day of the Committee’s meeting following OPEC’s lack of agreement on production quotas.』
『10 It was also possible, however, that the softening of global growth would be more sustained. Supply-chain disruption could not explain the apparent weakening in services activity in many countries or, for instance, relatively disappointing US employment and investment indicators. It was possible that private sector deleveraging and fiscal consolidation in many countries would prove more of a drag on growth than anticipated, though it remained too early to draw firm conclusions.』
『12 It was not yet clear from the available data whether the recent weakness in growth would prove to be a temporary soft patch or something more lasting.』
なるほど。んでその考察に関して色々とございますので鑑賞。
『Despite a possible boost from the recovery from snow disruption at the end of 2010, real consumer spending had been estimated to have fallen by 0.6% in the first quarter. Although the unexpectedly rapid growth in the consumer expenditure deflator suggested that real consumption might eventually be revised upwards, the weakness of real household consumption had been consistent with the sharp reduction in indicators of consumer confidence in the early months of the year. Those indicators had recovered in May, although they remained at a level consistent with further falls in consumption.』
『House prices had remained broadly flat. Housing transactions had remained below the level normally implied by natural market turnover, although there had been some signs that the supply of houses for sale was beginning to edge up.』
『Business investment was estimated to have fallen by around 7% in the first quarter. Some, but not all, of that weakness was likely to reflect the unwinding of the erratically strong spending on aircraft in the second half of 2010 induced by tax changes at the start of 2011.』
『15 As in recent quarters, nominal spending indicators had been more robust. Nominal consumer spending was estimated to have grown by over 2% in the first quarter and by 5% over the previous year.』
名目ベースの消費者支出は強いですかそうですか。
『This might simply reflect households’ unwillingness or inability to alter some of their real spending patterns in the face of higher prices. But it might also provide a positive signal about households’ future spending.』
『The Committee noted that the strength of nominal spending in the economy had been possible despite the continued weakness of money and credit growth. Notwithstanding some erratic monthly movements, broad money growth had remained very subdued. And the stock of M4 lending had not grown at all since the beginning of 2010, while lending to private non-financial companies had continued to fall. Given the available data, it was not yet clear whether the reported increase in nominal spending in the first quarter had been associated with a reduction in saving or increased income.』
『命題を解釈する鍵は、金融システムにあります。バーナンキ議長は自身の学術研究の中で、「金融セクターとマクロ経済の連関性のすべてがマネーで説明できるという見方には懐疑的である(I doubt that it [money] completely explains the financial sector-aggregate output connection)」と述べていますが、日本の経験に照らして、私も同じ意見です。』
ということで森本審議委員講演から。 [外部リンク] Most members judged that it was appropriate to maintain the current stance of monetary policy at this meeting. The current weakness of demand growth was likely to persist for longer than previously thought. Moreover, the fiscal challenges in the euro-area periphery highlighted the potential for further adverse shocks to demand.』
『For some of these members, it was possible that further asset purchases might become warranted if the downside risks to medium-term inflation materialised.』
『For others, there remained a substantial upside risk to medium-term inflation stemming from the possibility that inflation expectations might rise significantly, compounded by the potential for further upward shocks to global prices. Although there was no sign that this risk was materialising as yet, that did not preclude it from doing so in the future.』
[外部リンク] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the economic recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, though somewhat more slowly than the Committee had expected. Also, recent labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated. 』(今回)
『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the economic recovery is proceeding at a moderate pace and overall conditions in the labor market are improving gradually. 』(前回)
『The slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan. 』(今回)
『Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand. However, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector continues to be depressed. 』(今回)
ここは前回と同じなので今回分だけ引用しておきます。で、この次の物価の所がしらっと上方修正。
『Inflation has picked up in recent months, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods, as well as the recent supply chain disruptions. However, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.』(今回) 『Commodity prices have risen significantly since last summer, and concerns about global supplies of crude oil have contributed to a further increase in oil prices since the Committee met in March. Inflation has picked up in recent months, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable and measures of underlying inflation are still subdued.』(前回)
ということで、インフレに関する文言であたくしが真っ先に注目したのは「measures of underlying inflation are still subdued」というのが抜けている事でありまして、この先のパラグラフとかも読んでみたのでありますが、この「基調的なインフレが抑制されている」というのが抜けたのってまあそういうデータという事ではあるのでしょうけれども、これはこれで政策判断の重要ファクターの一つでありますし、景気認識下げたといっても足元の減速は一時的という認識を示している一方で基調的インフレの抑制の文言を外しているというのは中々芸が細かいなと思うのでございまして、一見dovishなのですけれども、よく見るとhawk成分も入っているというバランスの取り方が中々じゃないのとあたしゃ勝手に思いますけどどうっすかねえ。
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. 』(今回)
まあこれは決まり文句状態で前回と同じ。で、そのデュアルマンデートの見通しなどに関する文言ですが、
『The unemployment rate remains elevated; however, the Committee expects the pace of recovery to pick up over coming quarters and the unemployment rate to resume its gradual decline toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. 』(今回)
『The unemployment rate remains elevated, and measures of underlying inflation continue to be somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate.』(前回)
『Inflation has moved up recently, but the Committee anticipates that inflation will subside to levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate. However, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations. 』(今回)
『Increases in the prices of energy and other commodities have pushed up inflation in recent months. The Committee expects these effects to be transitory, but it will pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations. The Committee continues to anticipate a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability. 』(前回)
『To promote the ongoing economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent.』(今回)
『To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November.』(前回)
『The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. 』(今回)
『The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.』(前回の第4パラグラフ)
つーことでガイダンス文言に変更はなしです。で、QE2終了のお知らせ文言。
『The Committee will complete its purchases of $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of this month and will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. 』(今回)
『The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate. The Committee will monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will act as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.』(今回)
というのはまあお約束の文言であります。
・全員一致ですな
まあ全員一致も予想通りという事ですが。
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. 』(今回)
『When the price of any product moves sharply, the economist's first instinct is to look for changes in the supply of or demand for that product. And indeed, the recent increase in commodity prices appears largely to be the result of the same factors that drove commodity prices higher throughout much of the past decade: strong gains in global demand that have not been met with commensurate increases in supply. 』
『Importantly, in noting these facts, I intend no criticism of emerging markets; growth in those economies has conferred substantial economic benefits both within those countries and globally, and in any case, the consumption of raw materials relative to population in emerging-market countries remains substantially lower than in the United States and other advanced economies.』
『Nevertheless, it is undeniable that the tremendous growth in emerging market economies has considerably increased global demand for commodities in recent years.』
『In all, these cases reinforce the view that the fundamentals of global supply and demand have been playing a central role in recent swings in commodity prices. That said, there is usually significant uncertainty about current and prospective supply and demand. Accordingly, commodity prices, like the prices of financial assets, can be volatile as market participants react to incoming news. Recently, commodity prices seem to have been particularly responsive to news bearing on the prospects for global economic growth as well as geopolitical developments. 』
となっております。
・では先行きは???
んでその次。 『As the rapid growth of emerging market economies seems likely to continue, should we therefore expect continued rapid increases in the prices of globally-traded commodities? While it is certainly possible that we will see further increases, there are good reasons to believe that commodity prices will not continue to rise at the rapid rates we have seen recently. 』
足元のような急激な上昇は持続しないとな。
『In the short run, unexpected shortfalls in the supplies of key commodities result in sharp price increases, as usage patterns and available supplies are difficult to change quickly. Over longer periods, however, high levels of commodity prices curtail demand as households and firms adjust their spending and production patterns. 』
『Indeed, as I noted earlier, we have already seen significant reductions in commodity use in the advanced economies. Likewise, over time, high prices should elicit meaningful increases in supply, both as temporary factors, such as adverse weather, abate and as investments in productive capacity come to fruition. 』
『Finally, because expectations of higher prices lead financial market participants to bid up the spot prices of commodities, predictable future developments bearing on the demands for and supplies of commodities tend already to be reflected in current prices.』
『For these reasons, although unexpected developments could certainly lead to continued volatility in global commodity prices, it is reasonable to expect the effects of commodity prices on overall inflation to be relatively moderate in the medium term.』
『While supply and demand fundamentals surely account for most of the recent movements in commodity prices, some observers have attributed a significant portion of the run-up in prices to Federal Reserve policies, over and above the effects of those policies on U.S. economic growth. 』
『For example, some have argued that accommodative U.S. monetary policy has driven down the foreign exchange value of the dollar, thereby boosting the dollar price of commodities. 』
で、どういう説明かと申しますと。
『For example, some have argued that accommodative U.S. monetary policy has driven down the foreign exchange value of the dollar, thereby boosting the dollar price of commodities. Indeed, since February 2009, the trade-weighted dollar has fallen by about 15 percent. However, since February 2009, oil prices have risen 160 percent and nonfuel commodity prices are up by about 80 percent, implying that the dollar's decline can explain, at most, only a small part of the rise in oil and other commodity prices; indeed, commodity prices have risen dramatically when measured in terms of any of the world's major currencies, not just the dollar. 』
『But even this calculation overstates the role of monetary policy, as many factors other than monetary policy affect the value of the dollar. For example, the decline in the dollar since February 2009 that I just noted followed a comparable increase in the dollar, which largely reflected flight-to-safety flows triggered by the financial crisis in the latter half of 2008; the dollar's decline since then in substantial part reflects the reversal of those flows as the crisis eased. Slow growth in the United States and a persistent trade deficit are additional, more fundamental sources of recent declines in the dollar's value; in particular, as the United States is a major oil importer, any geopolitical or other shock that increases the global price of oil will worsen our trade balance and economic outlook, which tends to depress the dollar. In this case, the direction of causality runs from commodity prices to the dollar rather than the other way around. The best way for the Federal Reserve to support the fundamental value of the dollar in the medium term is to pursue our dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, and we will certainly do that. 』
『Another argument that has been made is that low interest rates have pushed up commodity prices by reducing the cost of holding inventories, thus boosting commodity demand, or by encouraging speculators to push commodity futures prices above their fundamental levels. 』
『In either case, if such forces were driving commodity prices materially and persistently higher, we should see corresponding increases in commodity inventories, as higher prices curtailed consumption and boosted production relative to their fundamental levels. In fact, inventories of most commodities have not shown sizable increases over the past year as prices rose; indeed, increases in prices have often been associated with lower rather than higher levels of inventories, likely reflecting strong demand or weak supply that tends to put pressure on available stocks.』
『Finally, some have suggested that very low interest rates in the United States and other advanced economies have created risks of economic overheating in emerging market economies and have thus indirectly put upward pressures on commodity prices.』
『In fact, most of the recent rapid economic growth in emerging market economies appears to reflect a bounceback from the previous recession and continuing increases in productive capacity, as their technologies and capital stocks catch up with those in advanced economies, rather than being primarily the result of monetary conditions in those countries.』
『More fundamentally, however, whatever the source of the recent growth in the emerging markets, the authorities in those economies clearly have a range of fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, and other tools that can be used to address any overheating that may occur. As in all countries, the primary objective of monetary policy in the United States should be to promote economic growth and price stability at home, which in turn supports a stable global economic and financial environment.』
#ちなみに禿のお花畑太陽発電に関してのツッコミは孝好さんのブログをご参照ありたし→[外部リンク] would like to thank the organizers for inviting me to participate once again in the International Monetary Conference. I will begin with a brief update on the outlook for the U.S. economy, then discuss recent developments in global commodity markets that are significantly affecting both the U.S. and world economies, and conclude with some thoughts on the prospects for monetary policy.』
で、章立てによりますと
・The Outlook for Growth ・The Outlook for Inflation ・Commodity Prices ・Monetary Policy
『Aggregate output increased at only 1.8 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter, and supply chain disruptions associated with the earthquake and tsunami in Japan are hampering economic activity this quarter. A number of indicators also suggest some loss of momentum in the labor market in recent weeks. We are, of course, monitoring these developments. That said, with the effects of the Japanese disaster on manufacturing output likely to dissipate in coming months, and with some moderation in gasoline prices in prospect, growth seems likely to pick up somewhat in the second half of the year.』
んでもって全体的にはという話ですが。
『Overall, the economic recovery appears to be continuing at a moderate pace, albeit at a rate that is both uneven across sectors and frustratingly slow from the perspective of millions of unemployed and underemployed workers.』
『Developments in the labor market will be of particular importance in setting the course for household spending. As you know, the jobs situation remains far from normal.』
『Particularly concerning is the very high level of long-term unemployment--nearly half of the unemployed have been jobless for more than six months. People without work for long periods can find it increasingly difficult to obtain a job comparable to their previous one, as their skills tend to deteriorate over time and as employers are often reluctant to hire the long-term unemployed.』
まあいつも指摘されていることですが、この点に関しては大きな問題でしょうという認識でございますわな。
『I expect hiring to pick up from last month’s pace as growth strengthens in the second half of the year, but, again, the recent data highlight the need to continue monitoring the jobs situation carefully.』
ということです。
で、不動産部門では最後の所にこれまた良い指摘を。
『The housing sector typically plays an important role in economic recoveries; the depressed state of housing in the United States is a big reason that the current recovery is less vigorous than we would like.』
『Although the recent increase in inflation is a concern, the appropriate diagnosis and policy response depend on whether the rise in inflation is likely to persist. So far at least, there is not much evidence that inflation is becoming broad-based or ingrained in our economy; indeed, increases in the price of a single product--gasoline--account for the bulk of the recent increase in consumer price inflation.』
『First, the still-substantial slack in U.S. labor and product markets should continue to have a moderating effect on inflationary pressures. Notably, because of the weak demand for labor, wage increases have not kept pace with productivity gains. Thus the level of unit labor costs in the business sector is lower than it was before the recession. Given the large share of labor costs in the production costs of most firms (typically, a share far larger than that of raw materials costs), subdued unit labor costs should remain a restraining influence on inflation. To be clear, I am not arguing that healthy increases in real wages are inconsistent with low inflation; the two are perfectly consistent so long as productivity growth is reasonably strong.』
『The second additional factor restraining inflation is the stability of longer-term inflation expectations. Despite the recent pickup in overall inflation, measures of households’ longer-term inflation expectations from the Michigan survey, the 10-year inflation projections of professional economists, the 5-year-forward measure of inflation compensation derived from yields on inflation-protected securities, and other measures of longer-term inflation expectations have all remained reasonably stable. As long as longer-term inflation expectations are stable, increases in global commodity prices are unlikely to be built into domestic wage- and price-setting processes, and they should therefore have only transitory effects on the rate of inflation.』
『That said, the stability of inflation expectations is ensured only as long as the commitment of the central bank to low and stable inflation remains credible. Thus, the Federal Reserve will continue to closely monitor the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations and will take whatever actions are necessary to keep inflation well controlled.』
『As I have discussed today, the economic recovery in the United States appears to be proceeding at a moderate pace and--notwithstanding unevenness in the rate of progress and some recent signs of reduced momentum--the labor market has been gradually improving. At the same time, the jobs situation remains far from normal, with unemployment remaining elevated. Inflation has risen lately but should moderate, assuming that commodity prices stabilize and that, as I expect, longer-term inflation expectations remain stable.』
『Although it is moving in the right direction, the economy is still producing at levels well below its potential; consequently, accommodative monetary policies are still needed. Until we see a sustained period of stronger job creation, we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established.』
『At the same time, the longer-run health of the economy requires that the Federal Reserve be vigilant in preserving its hard-won credibility for maintaining price stability. As I have explained, most FOMC participants currently see the recent increase in inflation as transitory and expect inflation to remain subdued in the medium term.』
『Should that forecast prove wrong, however, and particularly if signs were to emerge that inflation was becoming more broadly based or that longer-term inflation expectations were becoming less well anchored, the Committee would respond as necessary. Under all circumstances, our policy actions will be guided by the objectives of supporting the recovery in output and employment while helping ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s mandate.』
『At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 1.25%, 2.00% and 0.50% respectively.』
『Based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. The information that has become available since our meeting on 5 May 2011 confirms continued upward pressure on overall inflation, mainly owing to energy and commodity prices. The underlying pace of monetary expansion is gradually recovering. Monetary liquidity remains ample, with the potential to accommodate price pressures in the euro area. Furthermore, the most recent data confirm the positive underlying momentum of economic activity in the euro area, while uncertainty remains elevated. Overall, our monetary policy stance remains accommodative, lending support to economic activity. On balance, risks to the outlook for price stability are on the upside. Accordingly, strong vigilance is warranted.』
「upward pressure on overall inflation」だの「risks to the outlook for price stability are on the upside」だの威勢の良い言葉が続いて「strong vigilance is warranted」とゆー事で利上げ予告ですかそうですか。いやあ威勢の良いことですなあ(棒読み) と、メモだけしておきますね(^^)。
