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¡ØA few participants noted that a reduction in the interest rate paid on excess reserve balances could also be helpful in easing financial conditions.¡Ù

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¡ØIn contrast, some participants judged that none of the tools available to the Committee would likely do much to promote a faster economic recovery, either because the headwinds that the economy faced would unwind only gradually and that process could not be accelerated with monetary policy or because recent events had significantly lowered the path of potential output.¡Ù

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¡ØConsequently, these participants thought that providing additional stimulus at this time would risk boosting inflation without providing a significant gain in output or employment.¡Ù

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¡ØParticipants noted that devoting additional time to discussion of the possible costs and benefits of various potential tools would be useful, and they agreed that the September meeting should be extended to two days in order to provide more time.¡Ù

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¡ØHouseholds also have made some progress in repairing their balance sheets--saving more, borrowing less, and reducing their burdens of interest payments and debt.¡Ù
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¡ØCommodity prices have come off their highs, which will reduce the cost pressures facing businesses and help increase household purchasing power.¡Ù

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¡ØNotwithstanding these more positive developments, however, it is clear that the recovery from the crisis has been much less robust than we had hoped.¡Ù

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¡ØFrom the latest comprehensive revisions to the national accounts as well as the most recent estimates of growth in the first half of this year, we have learned that the recession was even deeper and the recovery even weaker than we had thought; indeed, aggregate output in the United States still has not returned to the level that it attained before the crisis.¡Ù

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¡ØImportantly, economic growth has for the most part been at rates insufficient to achieve sustained reductions in unemployment, which has recently been fluctuating a bit above 9 percent. Temporary factors, including the effects of the run-up in commodity prices on consumer and business budgets and the effect of the Japanese disaster on global supply chains and production, were part of the reason for the weak performance of the economy in the first half of 2011; accordingly, growth in the second half looks likely to improve as their influence recedes. However, the incoming data suggest that other, more persistent factors also have been at work.¡Ù

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¡ØWhy has the recovery from the crisis been so slow and erratic?¡Ù

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¡ØHistorically, recessions have typically sowed the seeds of their own recoveries as reduced spending on investment, housing, and consumer durables generates pent-up demand.¡Ù

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¡ØAs the business cycle bottoms out and confidence returns, this pent-up demand, often augmented by the effects of stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, is met through increased production and hiring. Increased production in turn boosts business revenues and household incomes and provides further impetus to business and household spending. ¡Ù

¡ØImproving income prospects and balance sheets also make households and businesses more creditworthy, and financial institutions become more willing to lend. Normally, these developments create a virtuous circle of rising incomes and profits, more supportive financial and credit conditions, and lower uncertainty, allowing the process of recovery to develop momentum. ¡Ù

¤Þ¤¢¤É¤³¤¾¤Ç¤Î¼õ¤±Çä¤ê¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤·¤Þ¤¦¤Î¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¶²¤é¤¯¥Ý¥¤¥ó¥È¤È¤Ê¤ë¤Î¤Ï¤³¤³¤Ç±ä¡¹¤È¤¢¤¢¤Ç¤â¤Ê¤¤¤³¤¦¤Ç¤â¤Ê¤¤¤ÈÏäò¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ëÃæ¤ÇÃÊÍî¤ï¤±¤·¤¿ËÁƬ¤Î¡ÖImproving income prospects and balance sheets¡×¤Ä¤Þ¤ê¡Ö²È·×¤ä´ë¶È¤Ë¤ª¤±¤ë¾­Íè¼ýÆþÁý²Ã¤Î´üÂÔ¤ª¤è¤Ó¥Ð¥é¥ó¥¹¥·¡¼¥È¤Î¾õ¶·¤¬²þÁ±¤¹¤ë¤³¤È¤È¡×¤È¤¤¤¦Éôʬ¤Ë¤¢¤ëÌõ¤Ç¤·¤Æ¡¢¤³¤ÎÀè¤Ç¤Î¡Ö²¿¸Î­¸µ¤Î·Êµ¤²óÉüÎϤ¬¼å¤¤¤Î¤«¡×¤È¤¤¤¦ÏäϤ³¤ÎÏÀÅÀ¤òÃæ¿´¤ËŸ³«¤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤¹¡£

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¡ØThese restorative forces are at work today, and they will continue to promote recovery over time. Unfortunately, the recession, besides being extraordinarily severe as well as global in scope, was also unusual in being associated with both a very deep slump in the housing market and a historic financial crisis. These two features of the downturn, individually and in combination, have acted to slow the natural recovery process.¡Ù
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¡ØNotably, the housing sector has been a significant driver of recovery from most recessions in the United States since World War II, but this time--with an overhang of distressed and foreclosed properties, tight credit conditions for builders and potential homebuyers, and ongoing concerns by both potential borrowers and lenders about continued house price declines--the rate of new home construction has remained at less than one-third of its pre-crisis level.¡Ù
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¡ØThe low level of construction has implications not only for builders but for providers of a wide range of goods and services related to housing and homebuilding. Moreover, even as tight credit for some borrowers has been one of the factors restraining housing recovery, the weakness of the housing sector has in turn had adverse effects on financial markets and on the flow of credit. For example, the sharp declines in house prices in some areas have left many homeowners "underwater" on their mortgages, creating financial hardship for households and, through their effects on rates of mortgage delinquency and default, stress for financial institutions as well. Financial pressures on financial institutions and households have contributed, in turn, to greater caution in the extension of credit and to slower growth in consumer spending.¡Ù

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¡ØI have already noted the central role of the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 in sparking the recession. As I also noted, a great deal has been done and is being done to address the causes and effects of the crisis, including a substantial program of financial reform, and conditions in the U.S. banking system and financial markets have improved significantly overall. Nevertheless, financial stress has been and continues to be a significant drag on the recovery, both here and abroad. ¡Ù
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¡ØBouts of sharp volatility and risk aversion in markets have recently re-emerged in reaction to concerns about both European sovereign debts and developments related to the U.S. fiscal situation, including the recent downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit rating by one of the major rating agencies and the controversy concerning the raising of the U.S. federal debt ceiling. It is difficult to judge by how much these developments have affected economic activity thus far, but there seems little doubt that they have hurt household and business confidence and that they pose ongoing risks to growth.¡Ù
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¡ØThe Federal Reserve continues to monitor developments in financial markets and institutions closely and is in frequent contact with policymakers in Europe and elsewhere.¡Ù
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[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] can certainly appreciate these concerns and am fully aware of the challenges that we face in restoring economic and financial conditions conducive to healthy growth, some of which I will comment on today.¡Ù

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¡ØWith respect to longer-run prospects, however, my own view is more optimistic.¡Ù

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¡ØAs I will discuss, although important problems certainly exist, the growth fundamentals of the United States do not appear to have been permanently altered by the shocks of the past four years.¡Ù

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¡ØIt may take some time, but we can reasonably expect to see a return to growth rates and employment levels consistent with those underlying fundamentals. In the interim, however, the challenges for U.S. economic policymakers are twofold: first, to help our economy further recover from the crisis and the ensuing recession, and second, to do so in a way that will allow the economy to realize its longer-term growth potential. Economic policies should be evaluated in light of both of those objectives.¡Ù
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¡ØThis morning I will offer some thoughts on why the pace of recovery in the United States has, for the most part, proved disappointing thus far, and I will discuss the Federal Reserve's policy response. I will then turn briefly to the longer-term prospects of our economy and the need for our country's economic policies to be effective from both a shorter-term and longer-term perspective.¡Ù

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¡ØWe meet here today almost exactly three years since the beginning of the most intense phase of the financial crisis and a bit more than two years since the National Bureau of Economic Research's date for the start of the economic recovery. Where do we stand?¡Ù
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¡ØThere have been some positive developments over the past few years, particularly when considered in the light of economic prospects as viewed at the depth of the crisis. Overall, the global economy has seen significant growth, led by the emerging-market economies.¡Ù

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¡ØIn the United States, a cyclical recovery, though a modest one by historical standards, is in its ninth quarter. In the financial sphere, the U.S. banking system is generally much healthier now, with banks holding substantially more capital. Credit availability from banks has improved, though it remains tight in categories--such as small business lending--in which the balance sheets of potential borrowers remain impaired. Companies with access to the public bond markets have had no difficulty obtaining credit on favorable terms. Importantly, structural reform is moving forward in the financial sector, with ambitious domestic and international efforts underway to enhance the capital and liquidity of banks, especially the most systemically important banks; to improve risk management and transparency; to strengthen market infrastructure; and to introduce a more systemic, or macroprudential, approach to financial regulation and supervision.¡Ù

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¡ØThe final question regarding the consideration of global economic conditions in U.S. monetary policy debate will require much more convincing evidence before a firm conclusion can be reached.¡Ù

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[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] Price Gains: Speculation vs. Fundamentals
By Brett W. Fawley and Luciana Juvenal

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[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] synchronization of price movements across a range of commodities has fostered, in part, the assertion that the commodity price boom is a bubble, driven primarily by near-zero interest rates and excessive speculation in commodity futures markets.¡Ù

¡ØThe counter argument is that market fundamentals-supply and demand for the commodities themselves-can fully explain the price gains. Ultimately, understanding the sources of the price gains is essential for determining the proper policy response, if any.¡Ù

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¡ØIn the absence of "irrational exuberance," the price of any good or asset should be driven by supply and demand. On both the supply and demand side of commodities, there is no shortage of shocks to explain, at least in part, recent price gains.¡Ù

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¡ØOverall, there is no doubt that fundamental shocks to supply and demand in commodities, both transitory and persistent, can account for significant price pressures in these markets. Some, however, remain unconvinced that these fundamental shocks are enough to explain the entirety of price increases. Instead, they place some blame on a bubble in commodity prices.¡Ù

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¡ØAn asset bubble is characterized by prices detached from fundamentals, instead driven by the anticipation of profiting from higher prices tomorrow.¡Ù

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¡ØCommodity markets, however, do not meet the usual theoretical criteria for a bubble.¡Ù

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¡ØArguments for a speculative bubble focus primarily on one market-place for commodities: the futures market.¡Ù

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¡ØCommodity futures markets are where both commercial and noncommercial traders can buy and sell standardized contracts for delivery of a specified quantity of goods at a specified date in the future. These contracts are short-term instruments that have few constraints on short-selling (betting on price decreases) and that are easy to arbitrage (profit risk-free from mispricing).¡Ù

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¡ØIn contrast, theory holds that bubbles are limited to markets such as real estate, where the good in question has a long lifespan, is hard to sell before you own, and buying and selling is costly in terms of time and money.¡Ù

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¡ØStill, some believe that a bubble is forming in commodities due to either expansionary U.S. monetary policy and/or record flows of investment funds into commodity futures. These possibilities warrant careful consideration.¡Ù

¥­¥¿¥³¥ì¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦¤³¤È¤Ç¤³¤ÎÀè¤Î¾®¸«½Ð¤·¤¬¡ØThe Role of Expansionary U.S. Monetary Policy¡Ù¤Ç¤´¤¶¤¤¤Þ¤¹¡£

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¡ØThe impact of increased speculation in commodity futures markets, perhaps exacerbated by low traditional investment returns, has been an area of intense research in recent years, however.¡Ù

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¡ØLogical inconsistencies include a tenuous link between speculative inflows and demand for the underlying commodity and doubt over the extent that index fund investors could artificially increase futures and cash prices while only participating in the futures market and not the spot market, where commodities are sold for immediate delivery.¡Ù

¡ØFactual inconsistencies are numerous. For example, inventories should have risen between 2006 and 2008 according to the bubble theory, but they actually fell.¡Ù

¡ØOther reasons for discounting this theory include:

¡¦arbitraging index-fund buying is fairly easy due to its predictable nature,
¡¦commodity prices rose in markets with and without index funds,
¡¦speculation was not excessive after accounting for hedging demand, and
¡¦price impacts across markets were not consistent for the same level of index fund activity.¡Ù

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¡ØIn addition to their own analysis, the authors of the OECD report reviewed four studies supporting a pre-recession commodity bubble and five studies discounting a bubble. The authors concluded that "the weight of the evidence at this point in time clearly tilts in favor of the argument that index funds did not cause a bubble in commodity futures prices." ¡Ù

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¡ØOf the studies supporting a bubble, they write, "These studies are subject to a number of important criticisms that limit the degree of confidence one can place in their results." Still, the OECD report contains an important caveat regarding the markets most often linked to a speculative bubble: "The evidence is weaker in the two energy markets studied because of considerable uncertainty about the degree to which the available data actually reflect index trader positions in these markets." Sorting out the bubble arguments has extremely important policy implications going forward.¡Ù

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[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] market debt register claims of the Swiss Confederation: Results

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Series :6.7928
Auction date:23.08.2011¡¡
Payment : 25.08.2011
Date ofredemption:23.02.2012
Total bids¡¡(CHF m):8'829.00
Unpriced bids :904.45
Allotment :599.80
Unit price :100.508
Yield:-1.000

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[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] Price Gains: Speculation vs. Fundamentals
By Brett W. Fawley and Luciana Juvenal

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[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] Policy Responses Required in Commodity Markets?¡Ù¤Ã¤Æ½ê¤«¤é¡£

¡ØThe most important thing to remember with respect to commodity markets is that they are volatile. The traditional decision of central banks to focus on core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is easy to understand in the context of recent movement in rubber markets.¡Ù

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¡ØTo try to design policy around commodity prices would require abrupt about-faces and would detract from a central bank's goal of bringing stability to markets.¡Ù

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¡ØMore pertinent questions with respect to commodity markets are:

¡¦Is strong regulation in futures markets needed?
¡¦Are large subsidies on biofuels good policy?
¡¦Should U.S. monetary policy take into consideration global economic conditions?¡Ù

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¡ØSome countries, like India, have already begun to regulate commodity futures markets; other countries, including the United States, have debated the issue.¡Ù

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¡ØBoth those who believe in a speculative commodity bubble and those who do not can agree that properly functioning commodity futures markets are integral to the real economy because they allow those who do not wish to hold the risk of future price movements to sell that risk to willing parties. The OECD report provides a reminder that index fund investors are an important source of liquidity and of risk absorption for these markets. Pushing such investors out of the market could result in huge costs, which must be weighed against the evidence that their activity is hindering, and not enhancing, the proper functioning of these markets.¡Ù

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[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] National and Regional Economic Outlook
August 18, 2011
Remarks at the New Jersey Performing Arts Center, Newark, New Jersey

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¡ØThe statement issued by the Federal Open Market Committee earlier last week presents a sober assessment of the state of the U.S. economy. Economic growth so far in 2011 has been quite a bit slower than we expected earlier in the year. While jobs growth picked up early in the year, in the last few months conditions in the labor market have deteriorated again and the unemployment rate has edged up. Household spending has flattened out, and the housing sector is depressed. Business investment in equipment and software is expanding, but investment in corporate offices and other commercial buildings is weak.¡Ù

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¡ØSome of the weakness in economic activity in the first half of the year was due to temporary factors such as the hit to household income from higher food and energy prices, and supply chain disruptions following the tragic earthquake in Japan. These restraining forces have abated and thus, we should see stronger growth in the second half. But it is clear that not all of the weakness was due to these one-time factors - and in light of this, I have revised down my expectations for the pace of recovery going forward.¡Ù

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¡ØOn the inflation front, the committee noted that inflation has moderated recently as energy and commodity prices have declined from their peaks-having picked up earlier in the year, mainly reflecting higher prices for commodities and imported goods, as well as the supply disruptions from Japan. Longer term inflation expectations remain stable, and the committee now expects inflation to settle over the coming quarters at levels at or below those consistent with our mandate to promote full employment and price stability. ¡Ù

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¡ØIn light of the current outlook, the FOMC in its statement noted that we now anticipate that we are likely to keep short-term interest rates exceptionally low at least through mid-2013.¡Ù

¤Ç¡¢¥¬¥¤¥À¥ó¥¹Ê¸¸À¤Ë´Ø¤·¤Æ¤Ï¡¢¥À¥É¥ê¡¼ÁíºÛ¤Ï¡Öwe now anticipate¡×¤ÈÀâÌÀ(À¼ÌÀʸ¤Ç¤Ï¡ÖThe Committee currently anticipates¡×¤È¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤¹)¤·¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤·¤Æ¡¢¡Öº£¤Ï¤³¤¦Í½ÁÛ¤·¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤¹¡×¤È¤¤¤¦ÀâÌÀ¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤·¤Æ¡¢ºòÆü¤´¾Ò²ð¤·¤¿¥Õ¥£¥Ã¥·¥ã¡¼ÁíºÛ¤ä¤½¤ÎÁ°¤Ë¤´¾Ò²ð¤·¤¿¥³¥Á¥ã¥é¥³¥¿ÁíºÛ¤Ê¤É¤Ïº£²ó¤Î¥¬¥¤¥À¥ó¥¹Ê¸¸ÀÊѹ¹¤ò¥³¥ß¥Ã¥È¥á¥ó¥È¤È¤·¤ÆÂª¤¨¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤ÈÂоÈŪ¤Ç¤¢¤ê¤Þ¤¹¡£¤Ä¡¼¤«²ò¼á¤¬°ã¤¦(¤Þ¤¢¼¹¹ÔÉô¤Ï¤½¤ÎÊÕ¤òÈù̯¤ËÛ£Ëæ¤Ë¤·¤Æ»Ô¾ì¤Î¸í²ò¤òÊüÃÖ¤·¤Æ´Ëϸú²Ì¤¬½Ð¤ì¤Ð¥é¥Ã¥­¡¼½Ð¤Ê¤±¤ì¤Ð´Ë϶¯²½¤È¤¤¤¦»ö¤Ê¤Î¤«¤âÃΤì¤Þ¤»¤ó¤¬¡¦¡¦¡¦¡¦)¤Ã¤ÆFOMC¤Î»þ¤Ë¤É¤ó¤ÊµÄÏÀ¤·¤Æ¤ä¤¬¤ë¤ó¤À¤È¤¤¤¦´¶¤¸¤Ê¤Î¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¤½¤ì¤ÏµÄ»öÍ׻ݤ˽ФƤ¤¤ë¤Î¤«¤âÈù̯¤Ê´õ¥¬¥¹¡£

¡ØWe also discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. Further details on the discussion at the meeting will be available when the minutes are published later this month. I will not comment on monetary policy any further today.¡Ù

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¡ØFollowing the release of the FOMC¡Çs statement, market interest rates generally moved lower, which should help provide some additional support for economic activity and jobs. I would note, however, that conditions remain unsettled and the equity market in particular has been quite volatile recently.¡Ù

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¡ØConnecting the Dots¡Ù¤Ã¤Æ¤Î¤¬¼¡¤Î¤ªÂê¤Ç¡¢¡ØNow, how do you connect the dots between Texas¡Ç record of economic growth and my dissenting vote?¡Ù¤È¤¤¤¦ÏäʤΤǤ¹¤¬²ÚÎï¤Ë¥¹¥ë¡¼¡£

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¡ØThe sooner they get on it, the better. Uncertainty is corrosive; it is hurting job creation and capital expansion when we need it most. As Margaret Thatcher would say: ¡ÈDon¡Çt dawdle. And don¡Çt go wobbly on us, Congress.¡É Monetary policy cannot substitute for what you must get on with doing. Get on with your job.¡Ù

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¡ØI think I have made it pretty clear today that I believe what is restraining our economy is not monetary policy but fiscal misfeasance in Washington. We elect our national leaders to safeguard our country. An integral part of that consists of safeguarding the nation¡Çs fiscal probity. Pointing fingers at the Fed only diminishes credibility¡½the ugly truth is that the problem lies not with monetary policy but in the need to construct a modern, appropriate set of fiscal and regulatory levers and pulleys to better incentivize the private sector to channel money into productive use in expanding our economy and enriching our people. Only Congress, working together with the president, has the power to write the rules and provide the incentives to correct the course of the great ship we know and love as America. I hope you, as the voters who put them in office, will demand no less of them.¡Ù
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[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] the Dots: Texas Employment Growth; a Dissenting Vote; and the Ugly Truth (With Reference to P.G. Wodehouse)Remarks at the Midland Community ForumMidland, TexasAugust 17, 2011
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¡ØNow" target="_blank">[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] to the second matter I wish to discuss with you today: my decision to dissent from the commitment of the majority of my colleagues on the FOMC in their decision to hold the base interest rate for interbank lending¡½the fed funds rate, the anchor of the yield curve¡½at its current level well into 2013.¡Ù

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¡ØI voted against that commitment-cum-signal. In the press¡Ç reporting of my dissenting vote and those of the other two members of the FOMC who voted against that commitment¡½Mr. Kocherlakota, my counterpart from the Minneapolis Fed, and Mr. Plosser, my counterpart from Philadelphia¡½there was substantial speculation as to the reasons for our dissent. I will let my other two colleagues speak for themselves; I can only speak for myself. Let me make clear why I was opposed to freezing the fed funds rate for two years. ¡Ù
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¡ØI have posited both within the FOMC and publicly for some time that there is abundant liquidity available to finance economic expansion and job creation in America. The banking system is awash with liquidity. It is a rare day when the discount windows¡½the lending facilities of the 12 Federal Reserve banks¡½experience significant activity. Domestic banks are flush; they have on deposit at the 12 Federal Reserve banks some $1.6 trillion in excess reserves, earning a mere 25 basis points¡½a quarter of 1 percent per annum¡½rather than earning significantly higher interest rates from making loans to operating businesses. These excess bank reserves are waiting on the sidelines to be lent to businesses. Nondepository financial firms-private equity funds and the like¡½have substantial amounts of investable cash at their disposal. U.S. corporations are sitting on an abundance of cash¡½some estimate excess working capital on publicly traded corporations¡Ç books exceeds $1 trillion¡½well above their working capital needs. Nonpublicly held businesses that are creditworthy have increasing access to bank credit at historically low nominal rates.¡Ù

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¡ØI have said many times that through the initiatives we took to counter the crisis of 2008-09, and the dramatic extension of the balance sheet that ensued, the Fed has refilled the tanks needed to fuel economic expansion and domestic job creation. Though I questioned the efficacy of the expansion of our balance sheet through the purchase of Treasury securities known as ¡ÈQE2,¡É I have come to expect that the Federal Open Market Committee would continue to anchor the base lending rate at current levels and also maintain our abnormally large balance sheet, now with footings of almost $2.9 trillion, for ¡Èan extended period.¡É¡Ù

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¡ØMy concern is with the transmission mechanism for activating the use of the liquidity we have created, which remains on the sidelines of the economy. I posit that nonmonetary factors, not monetary policy, are retarding the willingness and ability of job creators to put to work the liquidity that we have provided.¡Ù

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¡ØI have spoken to this many times in public. Those with the capacity to hire American workers¡½small businesses as well as large, publicly traded or private¡½are immobilized. Not because they lack entrepreneurial zeal or do not wish to grow; not because they can¡Çt access cheap and available credit. Rather, they simply cannot budget or manage for the uncertainty of fiscal and regulatory policy. In an environment where they are already uncertain of potential growth in demand for their goods and services and have yet to see a significant pickup in top-line revenue, there is palpable angst surrounding the cost of doing business. According to my business contacts, the opera buffa of the debt ceiling negotiations compounded this uncertainty, leaving business decisionmakers frozen in their tracks.¡Ù

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¡ØMoreover, you might now say to yourself, ¡ÈI understand from the Federal Reserve that I don¡Çt have to worry about the cost of borrowing for another two years. Given that I don¡Çt know how I am going to be hit by whatever new initiatives the Congress will come up with, but I do know that credit will remain cheap through the next election, what incentive do I have to invest and expand now? Why shouldn¡Çt I wait until the sky is clear?¡É¡Ù

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¡ØNo amount of monetary accommodation can substitute for that needed clarity. In fact, it can only make it worse if business comes to suspect that the central bank is laying the groundwork for eventually inflating our way out of our fiscal predicament rather than staying above the political fray-thus creating another tranche of uncertainty.¡Ù
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¡ØIn the interest of full disclosure, I should add that I was also concerned that just by tweaking the language the way the committee did, our action might be interpreted as encouraging the view that there is an FOMC so-called ¡ÈBernanke put¡É that would be too easily activated in response to a reversal in the financial markets.¡Ù

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¡ØFor those of you unfamiliar with the expression ¡ÈBernanke put,¡É or more generally, a ¡Ècentral bank put,¡É this term refers to the concept that a central bank will allow the stock market to rise significantly without tightening monetary policy, but will ease monetary policy whenever there is a stock market ¡Ècorrection.¡É¡Ù

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¡ØGiven the extent of the drop in the stock market leading up to and following Standard & Poor¡Çs downgrade of U.S. debt, combined with the FOMC¡Çs commitment to hold short-term rates near zero until mid-year 2013, some cynical observers might interpret such a policy action as a ¡ÈBernanke put.¡É¡Ù

¤³¤³¤Ç¤Ï¡Ösome cynical observers¡×¤È°ì±þ¹µ¤¨¤á¤Ë¸À¤Ã¤Æ¤Þ¤¹¤±¤É¡¢¤É¤¦¸«¤Æ¤â¥Õ¥£¥Ã¥·¥ã¡¼¤µ¤ó¤Ï¡Ö¿¤¯¤Î¿Í¤¬¤½¤¦»×¤¦¤è¤¦¤Ë¤Ê¤ë¤Î¤Ï¥±¥·¥«¥é¥ó¡×¤È¸À¤¤¤¿¤½¤¦(^^)¡£

¡ØMy long-standing belief is that the Federal Reserve should never enact such asymmetric policies to protect stock market traders and investors. I believe my FOMC colleagues share this view. ¡Ù

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[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] the Dots: Texas Employment Growth; a Dissenting Vote;
and the Ugly Truth (With Reference to P.G. Wodehouse)

Remarks at the Midland Community Forum
Midland, Texas
August 17, 2011

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¡ØI do not believe it wise to commit to more than that, or to signal further accommodation, when the cheap and abundant liquidity we have made available is presently lying fallow, and when the velocity of money remains so subdued as to be practically comatose. At the FOMC meeting, the committee announced that it ¡Ècurrently anticipates that economic conditions ¡Ä are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.¡É In monetary parlance, that is language designed to signal that we are on hold until then. ¡Ù

¡ØI voted against that commitment-cum-signal. In the press¡Ç reporting of my dissenting vote and those of the other two members of the FOMC who voted against that commitment¡½Mr. Kocherlakota, my counterpart from the Minneapolis Fed, and Mr. Plosser, my counterpart from Philadelphia¡½there was substantial speculation as to the reasons for our dissent. I will let my other two colleagues speak for themselves; I can only speak for myself. Let me make clear why I was opposed to freezing the fed funds rate for two years.¡Ù

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¡ØFirst, in reporting my views to the committee, I noted my concern for the fragility of the U.S. economy and weak job creation. It might be noted by the press here today that although I am constantly preoccupied with price stability¡½in the aviary of central bankers, I am known as a ¡Èhawk¡É on inflation¡½I did not voice concern for the prospect of inflationary pressures in the foreseeable future. Indeed, the Dallas Fed¡Çs trimmed mean analysis of the inflationary developments in June indicated that the trimmed mean PCE turned in its softest reading of the year. The trimmed mean analysis we do at the Dallas Fed focuses on the price movements of personal consumption expenditures. It is an analysis that tracks the price movements of 178 items that people actually buy, such as beer, haircuts, shoe repair, food and energy prices. In June, the trimmed mean came in at an annualized rate of 1.3 percent, versus 2.1 percent for the first five months of the year. The 12-month rate was 1.5 percent.¡Ù

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¡ØMy concern is not with immediate inflationary pressures. Core producer prices are still increasing at a higher than desirable rate. But I have suggested to my colleagues that while many companies have begun and will likely continue to raise prices to counter rising costs that derive from a range of factors-including the run-up of commodity prices in 2010 and increases in the costs of production in China-weak demand is beginning to temper the ability of providers of goods and services to significantly raise prices to consumers. ¡Ù

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¡ØMy concern is with the transmission mechanism for activating the use of the liquidity we have created, which remains on the sidelines of the economy. I posit that nonmonetary factors, not monetary policy, are retarding the willingness and ability of job creators to put to work the liquidity that we have provided.¡Ù

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¡ØI think I have made it pretty clear today that I believe what is restraining our economy is not monetary policy but fiscal misfeasance in Washington.¡Ù

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¡ØWe elect our national leaders to safeguard our country. An integral part of that consists of safeguarding the nation¡Çs fiscal probity. Pointing fingers at the Fed only diminishes credibility¡½the ugly truth is that the problem lies not with monetary policy but in the need to construct a modern, appropriate set of fiscal and regulatory levers and pulleys to better incentivize the private sector to channel money into productive use in expanding our economy and enriching our people.¡Ù

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¡ØOnly Congress, working together with the president, has the power to write the rules and provide the incentives to correct the course of the great ship we know and love as America. I hope you, as the voters who put them in office, will demand no less of them.¡Ù

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[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] National and Regional Economic Outlook¡¡

August 18, 2011¡¡
William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive
Remarks at the New Jersey Performing Arts Center, Newark, New Jersey


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¡ØThe measures taken thus far by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) against the strength of the Swiss franc are having an impact. Nevertheless, the Swiss franc remains massively overvalued. The SNB has therefore decided to expand again significantly the supply of liquidity to the Swiss franc money market.¡Ù

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¡ØIn so doing, it is increasing the downward pressure on money market interest rates
with a view to further weakening the Swiss franc exchange rate. With immediate effect, it aims to expand banks¡Ç sight deposits at the SNB further, from CHF 120 billion to CHF 200 billion. In order to achieve this new target level as quickly as possible, it will continue to repurchase outstanding SNB Bills and to employ foreign exchange swaps. Furthermore, the SNB reiterates that it will, if necessary, take further measures against the strength of the Swiss franc.¡Ù

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¡ØThe Committee set monetary policy in order to meet the inflation target in the medium term. Inflation had been well above the 2% target as a result of the temporary impact of higher energy and other commodity prices, the increase in the standard rate of VAT and the past depreciation of sterling.¡Ù

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¡ØCPI inflation had fallen in June, but it was judged likely to rise again temporarily, to reach 5% in the coming months, boosted by further increases in utility prices.¡Ù

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¡ØThe Committee¡Çs central view remained that inflation was likely to fall back in the medium term, as the impact of the factors raising inflation diminished and some downward pressure from a degree of slack in the labour market persisted. There were risks to that view, to the upside and the downside.¡Ù

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¡ØThe key upside risk continued to be that inflation would be elevated for longer than the Committee expected. That could be as a result of expectations of above-target inflation becoming embedded in wage and price-setting behaviour; the margin of spare capacity in the economy being less than currently thought; or of further shocks to the price level.¡Ù

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¡ØWage growth remained subdued, which suggested that employees had not so far been able to secure higher pay increases in response to the recent squeeze on real incomes. Some measures of the longer-term inflation expectations of households had risen over the past year. But longer-term expectations of professional forecasters and financial market participants had been broadly stable. Overall, most indicators remained close to their series averages.¡Ù

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¡ØNevertheless, CPI inflation was expected to reach 5% in the coming months, and itwas unclear how medium-term inflation expectations would react. Margin levels in consumer-facing sectors probably remained below their pre-recession levels, and any attempt by those firms to rebuild their margins could put upward pressure on inflation.¡Ù

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¡ØThe indications that the pace of global growth was moderating suggested that energy and other commodity prices were less likely to continue rising. Import price pass-through from sterling¡Çs past depreciation appeared to be more or less complete, although the possibility of further pass-through could not be excluded.¡Ù

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¡ØThe key risk to the downside remained that demand growth would not be sufficiently strong to absorb the pool of spare capacity in the economy, causing inflation to fall materially below target in the medium term. News over the month had generally reinforced the weak tone of indicators of global activity growth over the past few months, which had been particularly notable in data releases for the advanced economies. While some of the slowing would have reflected the impact of continuing disruption to global supply chains, and the effects of the elevated price of oil, the Committee judged it increasingly likely that the global slowdown would prove to be more prolonged than previously assumed.¡Ù

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¡ØIn the United Kingdom, it was likely that underlying growth in the second quarter had been stronger than suggested by the headline number for GDP, but indicators of the evolution of activity in the near term had been subdued, especially for consumption and in the manufacturing sector.¡Ù

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¡ØMuch of the moderation in UK manufacturing output appeared to be related to the slowdown in world activity, and the consequent implications for export orders. Business confidence had fallen, and appeared to be weighing on investment intentions, and perhaps also on employment growth.¡Ù

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¡ØThe lower path for Bank Rate now implied by market interest rates would serve partly to offset this weaker outlook. Evidence of slowing activity, and more particularly concerns about fiscal policy in the United States and the substantial challenges faced by the euro area, had resulted in stressed conditions in financial markets which were reflected in a wide range of asset classes. This had further elevated the funding costs faced by banks. If stress in financial markets persisted, it also had the potential to constrain banks¡Ç ability to raise as much term funding as they desired. In consequence, the price and availability of credit to many households and businesses could be adversely affected.¡Ù

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¡ØThe greatest risk to the downside stemmed from the euro area.¡Ù

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¡ØConcerns about the euro area were likely already to be affecting the economic outlook through their impact on asset prices, bank funding costs and the level of household and business confidence. Reflecting that, the Committee¡Çs projections were conditioned on relatively slow growth in the euro area. There were, however, additional risks relating to a significant further intensification of concerns.¡Ù

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¡ØThese could affect the United Kingdom through a number of channels, including: the impact a further slowing in euro-area activity would have on UK exports; financial and banking sector interlinkages; and possibly, and perhaps most significantly, through a disruption to the functioning of the international financial system more generally - hitting global asset prices, wholesale funding markets, and business and household confidence.¡Ù

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¡ØThose additional risks were almost impossible to calibrate in terms of their probability or impact. Members of the Committee held differing views about the extent to which those risks should influence the Committee¡Çs immediate policy decision. On balance, most members saw little merit in seeking to react to the possibility of these risks crystallising by adjusting monetary policy in advance.¡Ù

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¡ØThere remained substantial risks to inflation in the medium term in both directions. But overall the news on the month had increased the downside risks. Committee members considered the cases for different policy actions.¡Ù

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¡ØInflation had been well above the 2% target as a result of the temporary boost from higher energy and other commodity prices, the increase in the standard rate of VAT and the past depreciation of sterling. Despite the fall in CPI inflation in June, it was likely that inflation would rise further, to over 5%, in the coming months.¡Ù

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¡ØIn the light of recent developments in utility and food prices, the peak in inflation was likely to be a little higher and come sooner than the Committee had previously expected.¡Ù

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¡ØThe Committee¡Çs central view remained that a margin of spare capacity in the economy was likely to push down inflation and bring it back towards the target in the medium term, as the impact of the factors temporarily boosting inflation subsided.¡Ù

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¡ØBut there were material risks to that view, both to the upside and to the downside. The Committee discussed how those risks had evolved since its previous meeting.¡Ù

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¡ØThe key risk to the downside was that demand growth would not be sufficiently strong to soak up the pool of spare capacity in the economy, leading inflation to fall materially below the target in the medium term.¡Ù

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¡ØThe latest indicators suggested that the pace of global activity had slowed, although it was not clear how persistent this would prove to be. Some of the slowing in global activity reflected the temporary impact of the continuing disruption to supply chains caused by the Japanese earthquake and tsunami in March, and the effects of the elevated price of oil.¡Ù

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¡ØThe risks posed by an intensification of the sovereign debt and banking problems within the euro area to the prospects for economic activity and the financial system at home had remained substantial. The funding costs faced by the major UK banks remained elevated, in part reflecting those risks emanating from within the euro area, and were likely to continue to affect the price and availability of credit to many households and businesses adversely.¡Ù

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¡ØIndicators had pointed towards continued modest underlying UK GDP growth in the second quarter and, more tentatively, to some softening in the outlook for the third quarter. But the implications of weaker activity for inflation would depend on the factors that had caused it. Partly in response to the more downbeat news on the outlook for economic activity, investors had put back their central estimate of when official interest rates would begin to rise and the sterling effective exchange rate had fallen modestly. This was likely, in time, to provide some countervailing stimulus to economic activity.¡Ù

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¡ØThe key risk to the upside was that the period of elevated inflation would persist for longer than the Committee expected. Expectations of above-target inflation could become entrenched in price and wage-setting behaviour; employees might press harder for wage increases in response to recent declines in living standards; or there might be further upward pressure on prices arising from energy and other internationally traded goods prices.¡Ù

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¡ØAccording to one survey-based measure, households¡Çexpectations of inflation in the medium term had increased markedly, to a little above their previous peak in 2008. But measures of inflation expectations derived from financial markets had been stable.¡Ù

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¡ØThere was no clear evidence that higher inflation expectations had begun to feed through into wage-setting behaviour. Earnings growth had remained subdued. But earnings growth was affected by a range of factors, making it hard to infer clearly what impact inflation expectations might have had. It remained unclear how much comfort to draw from recent labour market developments, given the puzzling behaviour of productivity over the recent past.¡Ù

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¡ØMost members judged that it was appropriate to maintain the current stance of monetary policy at this meeting.¡Ù

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¡ØIt was likely that the current weakness in activity would persist for longer than previously thought, although the reduction over the month in the exchange rate and in market interest rates would provide some countervailing stimulus to the economy.¡Ù

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¡ØThat weakness, together with the continued subdued behaviour of earnings, reinforced the case that inflation was likely to fall back once the temporary impact of the factors pushing up on it had waned.¡Ù

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[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] by Narayana Kocherlakota on Dissenting Vote at August 9, 2011, Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee
Narayana Kocherlakota - President
Published August 12, 2011

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¡ØOne of my jobs as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is to serve on the Federal Open Market Committee. At its last meeting on August 9, the Committee took what I viewed as a significant policy step. I dissented from its decision. I believe that transparency is an essential part of effective policy formation, and so I¡Çm offering this brief explanation of my decision. These views are not necessarily those of others on the Federal Open Market Committee, including presidents Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser.¡Ù

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¡ØEntering the meeting, the FOMC was following an unprecedentedly accommodative monetary policy. There were three elements to this policy.¡Ù

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¡ØFirst, the Federal Reserve owned over $2.5 trillion of long-term government and government-backed securities. The purchase of the final $600 billion of these assets was announced in November 2010 and completed by the end of June 2011.¡Ù

¡ØSecond, as it had since December 2008, the Committee was maintaining the fed funds rate at between 0 and 25 basis points.¡Ù

¡ØThird, as it had since March 2009, the Committee statement included the forward guidance that it anticipated keeping the fed funds rate at this low level for ¡Èan extended period.¡É The ¡Èextended period¡É is generally interpreted as being between three and six months. ¡Ù

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¡ØThe Committee adopted this three-part policy stance in November 2010. I agreed with this decision and supported it publicly at that time and throughout this year.¡Ù

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¡ØIn its August 9 meeting, the Committee changed this ¡Èextended period¡É language to say instead that it ¡Ècurrently anticipates economic conditions ¡Ä are likely to warrant extraordinarily low levels of the federal funds rate through mid-2013.¡É¡Ù

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¡ØThis statement is designed to let the public know that the fed funds rate is likely to stay between 0 and 25 basis points over the next two years, not just over the next three to six months. Hence, the new language is intended to provide more monetary accommodation than before.¡Ù

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¡ØI dissented from this change in language because the evolution of macroeconomic data did not reflect a need to make monetary policy more accommodative than in November 2010. In particular, personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation rose notably in the first half of 2011, whether or not one includes food and energy. At the same time, while unemployment does remain disturbingly high, it has fallen since November.¡Ù

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¡ØI can summarize my reasoning as follows. I believe that in November, the Committeejudiciously chose a level of accommodation that was well calibrated for the prevailing economic conditions. Since November, inflation has risen and unemployment has fallen. I do not believe that providing more accommodation-easing monetary policy-is the appropriate response to these changes in the economy. ¡Ù

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¡ØGoing forward, my votes on monetary policy will continue to be based on the evolution of the data on PCE inflation and its components, medium-term PCE inflation expectations, and unemployment. ¡Ù

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[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] statement to the press conference (with Q&A)

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¡ØQuestion: I would like to ask about the intervention in the forex market of Japan. Are you in support of that, and is it also the same recognition as the consolidated intervention in March? Is it critical or not? Is it some kind of critical movement or decision? How do you evaluate this decision?¡Ù

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¡ØTrichet: I will only say that we have a very clear position in the Governing Council of the ECB. We consider that such interventions have to be made on the basis of a multilateral consensus and a multilateral decision. That is our position. It¡Çs a clear-cut position that we have always had. To my knowledge what has been done is not part of a multilateral decision.¡Ù

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[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] National Bank expands measures against strong Swiss franc

¡ØThe substantial rise in risk aversion on the international financial markets has further intensified the overvaluation of the Swiss franc in the last few days. In the light of these developments, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is taking additional measures against the strength of the Swiss franc. It will again significantly increase the supply of liquidity to the Swiss franc money market. The SNB aims to rapidly expand banks¡Ç sight deposits at the SNB from currently CHF 80 billion to CHF 120 billion.¡Ù

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¡ØTo accelerate the increase in Swiss franc liquidity, the SNB will additionally conduct foreign exchange swap transactions. The foreign exchange swap is a monetary policy instrument which the SNB uses to create Swiss franc liquidity. It was last employed in autumn 2008.¡Ù

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¡ØThe massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc poses a threat to the development of the economy in Switzerland and has further increased the downside risks to price stability. The SNB is keeping a close watch on developments on the foreign exchange market and on financial markets. If necessary, it will take further measures against the strength of the Swiss franc.¡Ù

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¡ØTo promote the ongoing economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent.¡Ù(º£²ó)

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¡ØThe Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.¡Ù(º£²ó)

¡ØThe Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.¡Ù(Á°²ó)

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¡ØThe Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings.¡¡The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.¡Ù(º£²ó)

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¡ØThe Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.¡¡It will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ these tools as appropriate.¡Ù(º£²ó)

¡ØThe Committee will monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will act as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.¡Ù(Á°²ó)

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¡ØVoting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.

Voting against the action were: Richard W. Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles I. Plosser, who would have preferred to continue to describe economic conditions as likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.¡Ù(º£²ó)

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¡ØThe Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.¡Ù(º£²ó¤Î»þ´Ö¼´ÉôʬºÆ·Ç)

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[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower than the Committee had expected.¡¡¡Ù(º£²ó)

¡ØInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the economic recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, though somewhat more slowly than the Committee had expected. ¡Ù(Á°²ó)

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¡ØIndicators suggest a deterioration in overall labor market conditions in recent months, and the unemployment rate has moved up.¡¡Household spending has flattened out, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed.¡¡However, business investment in equipment and software continues to expand. ¡Ù(º£²ó)

¡ØAlso, recent labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated.¡¡The slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan.¡¡Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand.¡¡However, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector continues to be depressed. ¡Ù(Á°²ó)

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(2)²È·×»Ù½Ð¤Ë´Ø¤·¤Æ¤Ï¡Öexpanding¡×(³ÈÂç)¤À¤Ã¤¿¤Î¤¬¡Öflattened out¡×(¤³¤ì¤ò¤Þ¤È¤â¤Ë¤¢¤¿¤¯¤·¤Î¥Ç¥¤¥ê¡¼¥³¥ó¥µ¥¤¥¹¤Ç¸«¤ë¤È¡ÖÈô¹Ô»ÑÀª¤Ëľ¤ë¡×¤Ê¤Î¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¡Ö¿åÊ¿¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡×¤È¤¤¤¦É÷¤ËÆÉ¤à¤â¤Î¤Ç¤Ï¤Ê¤¤¤«¤È)¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤¹¡£


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¡ØTemporary factors, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan, appear to account for only some of the recent weakness in economic activity.¡¡¡Ù(º£²ó)

¡ØThe slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan. ¡Ù(Á°²ó(Àè¤Û¤É°úÍѤ·¤¿¤â¤Î¤Î°ìÉôºÆ·Ç))


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¡ØInflation picked up earlier in the year, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods, as well as the supply chain disruptions.¡¡More recently, inflation has moderated as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their earlier peaks.¡¡Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.¡Ù(º£²ó)

¡ØInflation has picked up in recent months, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods, as well as the recent supply chain disruptions.¡¡However, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.¡Ù(Á°²ó)

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Àè¤Ë·ëÏÀ¤ò¿½¤·¾å¤²¤Þ¤¹¤È¡¢(1)Á´ÂΤηʵ¤²óÉü¤¬ÃÙ¤ì¤ë¤Ç¤·¤ç¤¦¡¢(2)¼º¶È¤Î²þÁ±¤¬½¾Íè¤ÎÁÛÄê¤è¤ê¤âÃÙ¤ì¤ë¤Ç¤·¤ç¤¦¡¢(3)¥À¥¦¥ó¥µ¥¤¥É¥ê¥¹¥¯¤¬³ÈÂ礷¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡¢(4)¥¤¥ó¥Õ¥ì¤Ïº£¸å¿ô»ÍȾ´ü¤ÇÍî¤ÁÃ夯¤Ç¤·¤ç¤¦¡¢¤È¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤·¤Æ¡¢Ã桹¤³¤ì¤Þ¤¿»Äǰ¤Êή¤ì¤Ë¡£

¡ØConsistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. ¡Ù(º£²ó)

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¡ØThe Committee now expects a somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters than it did at the time of the previous meeting and anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. ¡Ù(º£²ó)

¡ØThe unemployment rate remains elevated; however, the Committee expects the pace of recovery to pick up over coming quarters and the unemployment rate to resume its gradual decline toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. ¡Ù(Á°²ó)

º£¸å¿ô»ÍȾ´ü¤Ë¤ª¤±¤ë·Êµ¤²óÉü¥Ú¡¼¥¹¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤Æº£²ó¤Ï¡Öa somewhat slower pace of recovery¡×¡Öthan it did at the time of the previous meeting¡×¤È·Êµ¤²óÉü¤Î¥Ú¡¼¥¹¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤Æ¡ÖÁ°²ó¤ÎFOMC¤Ç°Ñ°÷²ñ¤¬Í½ÁÛ¤·¤¿¤è¤ê¤â´öʬ¤«¼å¤¤¥Ú¡¼¥¹¤Ë¤Ê¤ë¤Ç¤·¤ç¤¦¡×¤È¤¤¤¦É½¸½¤ËÊѹ¹¤·¡¢¹¹¤Ë¼º¶ÈΨ¤Ë´Ø¤·¤Æ¤Ï¡Öthe unemployment rate will decline only gradually¡×¤È¤Ê¤ê¤Þ¤·¤Æ¡¢Á°²ó¤Î¡Öthe unemployment rate to resume its gradual decline¡×¤È¤¤¤¦É½¸½¤È¤Îº¹¤ÏÈù̯¤Ç¤Ï¤¢¤ê¤Þ¤¹¤¬¡¢¤ª¤½¤é¤¯¡Öonly¡×¤Ã¤Ä¡¼¤Î¤¬¶¯Ä´É½¸½¤À¤È»×¤¦(¤Î¤À¤¬°ã¤Ã¤Æ¤¿¤é¶µ¤¨¤Æ¥¸¥§¥Í¥é¥ë)¤Î¤Ç¡¢Àè¹Ô¤­¤Î¼º¶ÈΨ²þÁ±¤ËÂФ·¤Æ¤â²óÉü¥Ú¡¼¥¹¤¬¼å¤Þ¤ë¤È¤Î¸«Î©¤Æ¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤Ç¤·¤ç¤¦¡£

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¡ØMoreover, downside risks to the economic outlook have increased. ¡Ù(º£²ó)
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¡ØThe Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further.¡Ù(º£²ó)
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¡ØInflation has moved up recently, but the Committee anticipates that inflation will subside to levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate.¡Ù(Á°²ó)

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¡ØHowever, the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations. ¡Ù(º£²ó)

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