『Participants discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery should the Committee judge that providing additional monetary accommodation was warranted.』
追加緩和政策が必要となった場合に使われるべきツールについての議論をしましたと。
・ガイダンス文言の変更に関して
『Reinforcing the Committee's forward guidance about the likely path of monetary policy was seen as a possible way to reduce interest rates and provide greater support to the economic expansion; a few participants emphasized that guidance focusing solely on the state of the economy would be preferable to guidance that named specific spans of time or calendar dates.』
『Some participants noted that additional asset purchases could be used to provide more accommodation by lowering longer-term interest rates. Others suggested that increasing the average maturity of the System's portfolio--perhaps by selling securities with relatively short remaining maturities and purchasing securities with relatively long remaining maturities--could have a similar effect on longer-term interest rates. Such an approach would not boost the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and the quantity of reserve balances.』
『In contrast, some participants judged that none of the tools available to the Committee would likely do much to promote a faster economic recovery, either because the headwinds that the economy faced would unwind only gradually and that process could not be accelerated with monetary policy or because recent events had significantly lowered the path of potential output.』
これわwwwwwwwww「none of the tools available」ってこらまたキツイお話を。
『Consequently, these participants thought that providing additional stimulus at this time would risk boosting inflation without providing a significant gain in output or employment.』
追加緩和は生産や雇用の拡大を伴わないインフレの拡大をもたらすリスクがあるキタコレ。
・いわゆる「pros and cons」をもっと検討しないといけませんねという話
『Participants noted that devoting additional time to discussion of the possible costs and benefits of various potential tools would be useful, and they agreed that the September meeting should be extended to two days in order to provide more time.』
『Households also have made some progress in repairing their balance sheets--saving more, borrowing less, and reducing their burdens of interest payments and debt.』 で、この後延々とこのバランスシートの話が続くのである。
・商品価格のピークオフで実質購買力の改善が期待できるとな
『Commodity prices have come off their highs, which will reduce the cost pressures facing businesses and help increase household purchasing power.』
『Notwithstanding these more positive developments, however, it is clear that the recovery from the crisis has been much less robust than we had hoped.』
『From the latest comprehensive revisions to the national accounts as well as the most recent estimates of growth in the first half of this year, we have learned that the recession was even deeper and the recovery even weaker than we had thought; indeed, aggregate output in the United States still has not returned to the level that it attained before the crisis.』
『Importantly, economic growth has for the most part been at rates insufficient to achieve sustained reductions in unemployment, which has recently been fluctuating a bit above 9 percent. Temporary factors, including the effects of the run-up in commodity prices on consumer and business budgets and the effect of the Japanese disaster on global supply chains and production, were part of the reason for the weak performance of the economy in the first half of 2011; accordingly, growth in the second half looks likely to improve as their influence recedes. However, the incoming data suggest that other, more persistent factors also have been at work.』
『Why has the recovery from the crisis been so slow and erratic?』
何ででしょうかねえ。
『Historically, recessions have typically sowed the seeds of their own recoveries as reduced spending on investment, housing, and consumer durables generates pent-up demand.』
『As the business cycle bottoms out and confidence returns, this pent-up demand, often augmented by the effects of stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, is met through increased production and hiring. Increased production in turn boosts business revenues and household incomes and provides further impetus to business and household spending. 』
『Improving income prospects and balance sheets also make households and businesses more creditworthy, and financial institutions become more willing to lend. Normally, these developments create a virtuous circle of rising incomes and profits, more supportive financial and credit conditions, and lower uncertainty, allowing the process of recovery to develop momentum. 』
まあどこぞでの受け売りになってしまうのですが、恐らくポイントとなるのはここで延々とああでもないこうでもないと話をしている中で段落わけした冒頭の「Improving income prospects and balance sheets」つまり「家計や企業における将来収入増加の期待およびバランスシートの状況が改善することと」という部分にある訳でして、この先での「何故足元の景気回復力が弱いのか」という話はこの論点を中心に展開されています。
・リセッションからの回復を遅らせる原因となった2つの「落ち込み」、特に住宅市場に関して
『These restorative forces are at work today, and they will continue to promote recovery over time. Unfortunately, the recession, besides being extraordinarily severe as well as global in scope, was also unusual in being associated with both a very deep slump in the housing market and a historic financial crisis. These two features of the downturn, individually and in combination, have acted to slow the natural recovery process.』 いわゆるリバウンドのサイクルはワークしているけれども、リセッションが異例なほど厳しかった事から、住宅市場の大きな落ち込みと、歴史的な金融危機を招き、この2つが原因となって自然な回復過程を遅らせています。 『Notably, the housing sector has been a significant driver of recovery from most recessions in the United States since World War II, but this time--with an overhang of distressed and foreclosed properties, tight credit conditions for builders and potential homebuyers, and ongoing concerns by both potential borrowers and lenders about continued house price declines--the rate of new home construction has remained at less than one-third of its pre-crisis level.』 従来(第2次大戦以降)の米国経済におけるリセッションからの回復過程においては、住宅セクターが顕著な牽引役となって回復を主導したという事実があるが、今回はご案内のようにディトレストや競売の不動産がうじゃうじゃあり、住宅関連に向けた信用供与はタイトであり、住宅価格の下落および先行きの下落懸念は続いていて、住宅建設はおちこんだままと。 『The low level of construction has implications not only for builders but for providers of a wide range of goods and services related to housing and homebuilding. Moreover, even as tight credit for some borrowers has been one of the factors restraining housing recovery, the weakness of the housing sector has in turn had adverse effects on financial markets and on the flow of credit. For example, the sharp declines in house prices in some areas have left many homeowners "underwater" on their mortgages, creating financial hardship for households and, through their effects on rates of mortgage delinquency and default, stress for financial institutions as well. Financial pressures on financial institutions and households have contributed, in turn, to greater caution in the extension of credit and to slower growth in consumer spending.』
『I have already noted the central role of the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 in sparking the recession. As I also noted, a great deal has been done and is being done to address the causes and effects of the crisis, including a substantial program of financial reform, and conditions in the U.S. banking system and financial markets have improved significantly overall. Nevertheless, financial stress has been and continues to be a significant drag on the recovery, both here and abroad. 』 2008-2009年に起きた金融危機に対しては政策当局は適切な対応を行って金融システムの安定性を確保したものの、足元では米国及び海外でまたまた金融ストレスキタコレである、ということで政治への悪態第一弾キター! 『Bouts of sharp volatility and risk aversion in markets have recently re-emerged in reaction to concerns about both European sovereign debts and developments related to the U.S. fiscal situation, including the recent downgrade of the U.S. long-term credit rating by one of the major rating agencies and the controversy concerning the raising of the U.S. federal debt ceiling. It is difficult to judge by how much these developments have affected economic activity thus far, but there seems little doubt that they have hurt household and business confidence and that they pose ongoing risks to growth.』 米国に関しては債務上限問題に関するああだこうだのせいで市場のセンチメントが悪化しやがったじゃねえか。そんでもってどの程度かはよく判んねえけど、ほぼ疑いなく家計や企業の信頼感への悪影響があったじゃねえかコノヤローというので短期的な経済に関する見方、課題について締めておられます。 『The Federal Reserve continues to monitor developments in financial markets and institutions closely and is in frequent contact with policymakers in Europe and elsewhere.』 以下金融政策の話になりますが、時間も量も膨大になったので後日。
[外部リンク] can certainly appreciate these concerns and am fully aware of the challenges that we face in restoring economic and financial conditions conducive to healthy growth, some of which I will comment on today.』
ということで、講演のお題どおりに「長期的な課題に関してお話をする」とのことで。
『With respect to longer-run prospects, however, my own view is more optimistic.』
ほほう。
『As I will discuss, although important problems certainly exist, the growth fundamentals of the United States do not appear to have been permanently altered by the shocks of the past four years.』
『It may take some time, but we can reasonably expect to see a return to growth rates and employment levels consistent with those underlying fundamentals. In the interim, however, the challenges for U.S. economic policymakers are twofold: first, to help our economy further recover from the crisis and the ensuing recession, and second, to do so in a way that will allow the economy to realize its longer-term growth potential. Economic policies should be evaluated in light of both of those objectives.』 「時間はかかるかもしれない」となった上に、今後の政策課題があるという話をしていまして、まあ今回の講演はこの話をする訳ですが、逆に言えば「これから説明する中長期的な課題を克服しないと米国の経済成長の基盤が失われるリスクがある」とも仰せな訳ですよねこれって。
『This morning I will offer some thoughts on why the pace of recovery in the United States has, for the most part, proved disappointing thus far, and I will discuss the Federal Reserve's policy response. I will then turn briefly to the longer-term prospects of our economy and the need for our country's economic policies to be effective from both a shorter-term and longer-term perspective.』
『We meet here today almost exactly three years since the beginning of the most intense phase of the financial crisis and a bit more than two years since the National Bureau of Economic Research's date for the start of the economic recovery. Where do we stand?』 さてどこでしょう。
『There have been some positive developments over the past few years, particularly when considered in the light of economic prospects as viewed at the depth of the crisis. Overall, the global economy has seen significant growth, led by the emerging-market economies.』
ということで、世界経済回復の牽引役は新興国経済だそうな。では米国に関して。
『In the United States, a cyclical recovery, though a modest one by historical standards, is in its ninth quarter. In the financial sphere, the U.S. banking system is generally much healthier now, with banks holding substantially more capital. Credit availability from banks has improved, though it remains tight in categories--such as small business lending--in which the balance sheets of potential borrowers remain impaired. Companies with access to the public bond markets have had no difficulty obtaining credit on favorable terms. Importantly, structural reform is moving forward in the financial sector, with ambitious domestic and international efforts underway to enhance the capital and liquidity of banks, especially the most systemically important banks; to improve risk management and transparency; to strengthen market infrastructure; and to introduce a more systemic, or macroprudential, approach to financial regulation and supervision.』
『In the broader economy, manufacturing production in the United States has risen nearly 15 percent since its trough, driven substantially by growth in exports. Indeed, the U.S. trade deficit has been notably lower recently than it was before the crisis, reflecting in part the improved competitiveness of U.S. goods and services.』
『Business investment in equipment and software has continued to expand, and productivity gains in some industries have been impressive, though new data have reduced estimates of overall productivity improvement in recent years.』
『Are Policy Responses Required in Commodity Markets?』って所ですが。
論点としてはこんな感じだそうな。
『・Is strong regulation in futures markets needed? ・Are large subsidies on biofuels good policy? ・Should U.S. monetary policy take into consideration global economic conditions?』
『The final question regarding the consideration of global economic conditions in U.S. monetary policy debate will require much more convincing evidence before a firm conclusion can be reached.』
『If expansionary U.S. monetary policy is transmitted globally to economies in danger of overheating, which in turn bids up commodity prices and, hence, increases price levels back at home, then U.S. monetary policy should care about output gaps around the world. At the same time, the mere correlation of commodity price increases with loose U.S. monetary policy, without any convincing empirical evidence or theoretical mechanisms for this avenue, is not enough to determine that U.S. policy decisions should factor in economic conditions from Latin America to Europe, from Asia to Africa.』
[外部リンク] Price Gains: Speculation vs. Fundamentals By Brett W. Fawley and Luciana Juvenal
PDF版(出版物版かな?)はこちら [外部リンク] synchronization of price movements across a range of commodities has fostered, in part, the assertion that the commodity price boom is a bubble, driven primarily by near-zero interest rates and excessive speculation in commodity futures markets.』
『The counter argument is that market fundamentals-supply and demand for the commodities themselves-can fully explain the price gains. Ultimately, understanding the sources of the price gains is essential for determining the proper policy response, if any.』
ということで、まずは商品市場のファンダメンタルズに関する説明が。
・商品価格上昇の背景について
『In the absence of "irrational exuberance," the price of any good or asset should be driven by supply and demand. On both the supply and demand side of commodities, there is no shortage of shocks to explain, at least in part, recent price gains.』
『Overall, there is no doubt that fundamental shocks to supply and demand in commodities, both transitory and persistent, can account for significant price pressures in these markets. Some, however, remain unconvinced that these fundamental shocks are enough to explain the entirety of price increases. Instead, they place some blame on a bubble in commodity prices.』
ということで、バブルに関する議論キタコレということですな。
・バブルかどうかについてですかそうですか
『An asset bubble is characterized by prices detached from fundamentals, instead driven by the anticipation of profiting from higher prices tomorrow.』
まあさよでござんす。
『Commodity markets, however, do not meet the usual theoretical criteria for a bubble.』
ほう。
『Arguments for a speculative bubble focus primarily on one market-place for commodities: the futures market.』
なるほど。
『Commodity futures markets are where both commercial and noncommercial traders can buy and sell standardized contracts for delivery of a specified quantity of goods at a specified date in the future. These contracts are short-term instruments that have few constraints on short-selling (betting on price decreases) and that are easy to arbitrage (profit risk-free from mispricing).』
主に先物市場に対する投機筋のご参入がバブルの要因になりやすいですかそうですか。
『In contrast, theory holds that bubbles are limited to markets such as real estate, where the good in question has a long lifespan, is hard to sell before you own, and buying and selling is costly in terms of time and money.』
ほほう、そうなんですかねえ。何かそんなもんで片付けてよいのかねという気もするんだが。
・米国の金融政策の影響に関する考察キタコレ
さっきの続きから
『Still, some believe that a bubble is forming in commodities due to either expansionary U.S. monetary policy and/or record flows of investment funds into commodity futures. These possibilities warrant careful consideration.』
キタコレ、ということでこの先の小見出しが『The Role of Expansionary U.S. Monetary Policy』でございます。
『The impact of increased speculation in commodity futures markets, perhaps exacerbated by low traditional investment returns, has been an area of intense research in recent years, however.』
『Logical inconsistencies include a tenuous link between speculative inflows and demand for the underlying commodity and doubt over the extent that index fund investors could artificially increase futures and cash prices while only participating in the futures market and not the spot market, where commodities are sold for immediate delivery.』
『Factual inconsistencies are numerous. For example, inventories should have risen between 2006 and 2008 according to the bubble theory, but they actually fell.』
『Other reasons for discounting this theory include:
・arbitraging index-fund buying is fairly easy due to its predictable nature, ・commodity prices rose in markets with and without index funds, ・speculation was not excessive after accounting for hedging demand, and ・price impacts across markets were not consistent for the same level of index fund activity.』
ではその辺はどうなのかということですが。
『In addition to their own analysis, the authors of the OECD report reviewed four studies supporting a pre-recession commodity bubble and five studies discounting a bubble. The authors concluded that "the weight of the evidence at this point in time clearly tilts in favor of the argument that index funds did not cause a bubble in commodity futures prices." 』
『Of the studies supporting a bubble, they write, "These studies are subject to a number of important criticisms that limit the degree of confidence one can place in their results." Still, the OECD report contains an important caveat regarding the markets most often linked to a speculative bubble: "The evidence is weaker in the two energy markets studied because of considerable uncertainty about the degree to which the available data actually reflect index trader positions in these markets." Sorting out the bubble arguments has extremely important policy implications going forward.』
[外部リンク] Price Gains: Speculation vs. Fundamentals By Brett W. Fawley and Luciana Juvenal
PDF版(出版物版かな?)はこちら [外部リンク] Policy Responses Required in Commodity Markets?』って所から。
『The most important thing to remember with respect to commodity markets is that they are volatile. The traditional decision of central banks to focus on core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is easy to understand in the context of recent movement in rubber markets.』
『To try to design policy around commodity prices would require abrupt about-faces and would detract from a central bank's goal of bringing stability to markets.』
ほほう。
『More pertinent questions with respect to commodity markets are:
・Is strong regulation in futures markets needed? ・Are large subsidies on biofuels good policy? ・Should U.S. monetary policy take into consideration global economic conditions?』
『Some countries, like India, have already begun to regulate commodity futures markets; other countries, including the United States, have debated the issue.』
ということで、投機筋に対する規制の強化という論点はありますねと。
『Both those who believe in a speculative commodity bubble and those who do not can agree that properly functioning commodity futures markets are integral to the real economy because they allow those who do not wish to hold the risk of future price movements to sell that risk to willing parties. The OECD report provides a reminder that index fund investors are an important source of liquidity and of risk absorption for these markets. Pushing such investors out of the market could result in huge costs, which must be weighed against the evidence that their activity is hindering, and not enhancing, the proper functioning of these markets.』
『The statement issued by the Federal Open Market Committee earlier last week presents a sober assessment of the state of the U.S. economy. Economic growth so far in 2011 has been quite a bit slower than we expected earlier in the year. While jobs growth picked up early in the year, in the last few months conditions in the labor market have deteriorated again and the unemployment rate has edged up. Household spending has flattened out, and the housing sector is depressed. Business investment in equipment and software is expanding, but investment in corporate offices and other commercial buildings is weak.』
『Some of the weakness in economic activity in the first half of the year was due to temporary factors such as the hit to household income from higher food and energy prices, and supply chain disruptions following the tragic earthquake in Japan. These restraining forces have abated and thus, we should see stronger growth in the second half. But it is clear that not all of the weakness was due to these one-time factors - and in light of this, I have revised down my expectations for the pace of recovery going forward.』
『On the inflation front, the committee noted that inflation has moderated recently as energy and commodity prices have declined from their peaks-having picked up earlier in the year, mainly reflecting higher prices for commodities and imported goods, as well as the supply disruptions from Japan. Longer term inflation expectations remain stable, and the committee now expects inflation to settle over the coming quarters at levels at or below those consistent with our mandate to promote full employment and price stability. 』
インフレに関しては何か殆ど声明文の話。
『In light of the current outlook, the FOMC in its statement noted that we now anticipate that we are likely to keep short-term interest rates exceptionally low at least through mid-2013.』
で、ガイダンス文言に関しては、ダドリー総裁は「we now anticipate」と説明(声明文では「The Committee currently anticipates」となっています)していまして、「今はこう予想しています」という説明になっていまして、昨日ご紹介したフィッシャー総裁やその前にご紹介したコチャラコタ総裁などは今回のガイダンス文言変更をコミットメントとして捉えているのと対照的であります。つーか解釈が違う(まあ執行部はその辺を微妙に曖昧にして市場の誤解を放置して緩和効果が出ればラッキー出なければ緩和強化という事なのかも知れませんが・・・・)ってFOMCの時にどんな議論してやがるんだという感じなのですが、それは議事要旨に出ているのかも微妙な希ガス。
『We also discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. Further details on the discussion at the meeting will be available when the minutes are published later this month. I will not comment on monetary policy any further today.』
まあさいですな。
『Following the release of the FOMC’s statement, market interest rates generally moved lower, which should help provide some additional support for economic activity and jobs. I would note, however, that conditions remain unsettled and the equity market in particular has been quite volatile recently.』
『The sooner they get on it, the better. Uncertainty is corrosive; it is hurting job creation and capital expansion when we need it most. As Margaret Thatcher would say: “Don’t dawdle. And don’t go wobbly on us, Congress.” Monetary policy cannot substitute for what you must get on with doing. Get on with your job.』
で、最後に「醜い真実」というお題のところですが、金曜に引用しましたけど再掲。
『I think I have made it pretty clear today that I believe what is restraining our economy is not monetary policy but fiscal misfeasance in Washington. We elect our national leaders to safeguard our country. An integral part of that consists of safeguarding the nation’s fiscal probity. Pointing fingers at the Fed only diminishes credibility―the ugly truth is that the problem lies not with monetary policy but in the need to construct a modern, appropriate set of fiscal and regulatory levers and pulleys to better incentivize the private sector to channel money into productive use in expanding our economy and enriching our people. Only Congress, working together with the president, has the power to write the rules and provide the incentives to correct the course of the great ship we know and love as America. I hope you, as the voters who put them in office, will demand no less of them.』 というころで、ここからの金融緩和政策には限界がありますというのが「醜い真実」のようです。
[外部リンク] the Dots: Texas Employment Growth; a Dissenting Vote; and the Ugly Truth (With Reference to P.G. Wodehouse)Remarks at the Midland Community ForumMidland, TexasAugust 17, 2011 で、お題はこちらにあるように「テキサス州の雇用に関して」「何故FOMCの 決定に反対票を投じたか」という話でありまして、その中身を2行くらいで 無理矢理まとめますと、金曜に引用した最後の部分に繋がるのですけれども、 「現在は十分な金融緩和を行っており流動性は有り余っている。これを動かすには 債務上限を巡る議会の混乱など政治がもたらす不透明性を排除する事が必要」 ってな感じであります。
ちなみに「雇用に関して中央銀行の貢献できる余地は限られている」という話は今年の1月にも同じような講演([外部リンク] Limits of Monetary Policy: ‘Monetary Policy Responsibility Cannot Substitute for Government Irresponsibility’』という大概なお題の講演でございまして(以前ネタにしました0124)、まあ雇用に関してはそのときと似たような話をしています。
『Now" target="_blank">[外部リンク] to the second matter I wish to discuss with you today: my decision to dissent from the commitment of the majority of my colleagues on the FOMC in their decision to hold the base interest rate for interbank lending―the fed funds rate, the anchor of the yield curve―at its current level well into 2013.』
『I voted against that commitment-cum-signal. In the press’ reporting of my dissenting vote and those of the other two members of the FOMC who voted against that commitment―Mr. Kocherlakota, my counterpart from the Minneapolis Fed, and Mr. Plosser, my counterpart from Philadelphia―there was substantial speculation as to the reasons for our dissent. I will let my other two colleagues speak for themselves; I can only speak for myself. Let me make clear why I was opposed to freezing the fed funds rate for two years. 』 ということで、思いっきり「コミットメント」としての解釈になっていますわな。
・流動性は既に十分に供給されているというのが一つの理由
さっき引用した奴の前半の方の続きになります。
『I have posited both within the FOMC and publicly for some time that there is abundant liquidity available to finance economic expansion and job creation in America. The banking system is awash with liquidity. It is a rare day when the discount windows―the lending facilities of the 12 Federal Reserve banks―experience significant activity. Domestic banks are flush; they have on deposit at the 12 Federal Reserve banks some $1.6 trillion in excess reserves, earning a mere 25 basis points―a quarter of 1 percent per annum―rather than earning significantly higher interest rates from making loans to operating businesses. These excess bank reserves are waiting on the sidelines to be lent to businesses. Nondepository financial firms-private equity funds and the like―have substantial amounts of investable cash at their disposal. U.S. corporations are sitting on an abundance of cash―some estimate excess working capital on publicly traded corporations’ books exceeds $1 trillion―well above their working capital needs. Nonpublicly held businesses that are creditworthy have increasing access to bank credit at historically low nominal rates.』
『I have said many times that through the initiatives we took to counter the crisis of 2008-09, and the dramatic extension of the balance sheet that ensued, the Fed has refilled the tanks needed to fuel economic expansion and domestic job creation. Though I questioned the efficacy of the expansion of our balance sheet through the purchase of Treasury securities known as “QE2,” I have come to expect that the Federal Open Market Committee would continue to anchor the base lending rate at current levels and also maintain our abnormally large balance sheet, now with footings of almost $2.9 trillion, for “an extended period.”』
『My concern is with the transmission mechanism for activating the use of the liquidity we have created, which remains on the sidelines of the economy. I posit that nonmonetary factors, not monetary policy, are retarding the willingness and ability of job creators to put to work the liquidity that we have provided.』
『I have spoken to this many times in public. Those with the capacity to hire American workers―small businesses as well as large, publicly traded or private―are immobilized. Not because they lack entrepreneurial zeal or do not wish to grow; not because they can’t access cheap and available credit. Rather, they simply cannot budget or manage for the uncertainty of fiscal and regulatory policy. In an environment where they are already uncertain of potential growth in demand for their goods and services and have yet to see a significant pickup in top-line revenue, there is palpable angst surrounding the cost of doing business. According to my business contacts, the opera buffa of the debt ceiling negotiations compounded this uncertainty, leaving business decisionmakers frozen in their tracks.』
『Moreover, you might now say to yourself, “I understand from the Federal Reserve that I don’t have to worry about the cost of borrowing for another two years. Given that I don’t know how I am going to be hit by whatever new initiatives the Congress will come up with, but I do know that credit will remain cheap through the next election, what incentive do I have to invest and expand now? Why shouldn’t I wait until the sky is clear?”』
何かやや極端な気もするのだが、まあこーゆー感じです(^^)。
・中央銀行が財政のお助けをするようになるという認識への懸念
で、悪態で話が終わりかと思いますと、最後の方にお洒落な論点が2つ。
『No amount of monetary accommodation can substitute for that needed clarity. In fact, it can only make it worse if business comes to suspect that the central bank is laying the groundwork for eventually inflating our way out of our fiscal predicament rather than staying above the political fray-thus creating another tranche of uncertainty.』 金融緩和の量を拡大しても現在必要とされている不確実性の解消には繋がらない。そして、もし中央銀行が財政の危機に際して常に通貨を拡大させるという認識を企業などにもたれるようになった場合、別の意味での不確実性が生じるとか何とか仰せのようで。
『In the interest of full disclosure, I should add that I was also concerned that just by tweaking the language the way the committee did, our action might be interpreted as encouraging the view that there is an FOMC so-called “Bernanke put” that would be too easily activated in response to a reversal in the financial markets.』
FOMCが金融市場のクレクレ攻撃に対して簡単に緩和を行うという風に見られるのはイクナイ。
『For those of you unfamiliar with the expression “Bernanke put,” or more generally, a “central bank put,” this term refers to the concept that a central bank will allow the stock market to rise significantly without tightening monetary policy, but will ease monetary policy whenever there is a stock market “correction.”』
『Given the extent of the drop in the stock market leading up to and following Standard & Poor’s downgrade of U.S. debt, combined with the FOMC’s commitment to hold short-term rates near zero until mid-year 2013, some cynical observers might interpret such a policy action as a “Bernanke put.”』
『My long-standing belief is that the Federal Reserve should never enact such asymmetric policies to protect stock market traders and investors. I believe my FOMC colleagues share this view. 』
『I do not believe it wise to commit to more than that, or to signal further accommodation, when the cheap and abundant liquidity we have made available is presently lying fallow, and when the velocity of money remains so subdued as to be practically comatose. At the FOMC meeting, the committee announced that it “currently anticipates that economic conditions … are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.” In monetary parlance, that is language designed to signal that we are on hold until then. 』
『I voted against that commitment-cum-signal. In the press’ reporting of my dissenting vote and those of the other two members of the FOMC who voted against that commitment―Mr. Kocherlakota, my counterpart from the Minneapolis Fed, and Mr. Plosser, my counterpart from Philadelphia―there was substantial speculation as to the reasons for our dissent. I will let my other two colleagues speak for themselves; I can only speak for myself. Let me make clear why I was opposed to freezing the fed funds rate for two years.』
ということで、以下今回の反対理由の説明が。
『First, in reporting my views to the committee, I noted my concern for the fragility of the U.S. economy and weak job creation. It might be noted by the press here today that although I am constantly preoccupied with price stability―in the aviary of central bankers, I am known as a “hawk” on inflation―I did not voice concern for the prospect of inflationary pressures in the foreseeable future. Indeed, the Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean analysis of the inflationary developments in June indicated that the trimmed mean PCE turned in its softest reading of the year. The trimmed mean analysis we do at the Dallas Fed focuses on the price movements of personal consumption expenditures. It is an analysis that tracks the price movements of 178 items that people actually buy, such as beer, haircuts, shoe repair, food and energy prices. In June, the trimmed mean came in at an annualized rate of 1.3 percent, versus 2.1 percent for the first five months of the year. The 12-month rate was 1.5 percent.』
『My concern is not with immediate inflationary pressures. Core producer prices are still increasing at a higher than desirable rate. But I have suggested to my colleagues that while many companies have begun and will likely continue to raise prices to counter rising costs that derive from a range of factors-including the run-up of commodity prices in 2010 and increases in the costs of production in China-weak demand is beginning to temper the ability of providers of goods and services to significantly raise prices to consumers. 』
『My concern is with the transmission mechanism for activating the use of the liquidity we have created, which remains on the sidelines of the economy. I posit that nonmonetary factors, not monetary policy, are retarding the willingness and ability of job creators to put to work the liquidity that we have provided.』
『I think I have made it pretty clear today that I believe what is restraining our economy is not monetary policy but fiscal misfeasance in Washington.』
ちょwwwwwテラフリーダムwwwwww
『We elect our national leaders to safeguard our country. An integral part of that consists of safeguarding the nation’s fiscal probity. Pointing fingers at the Fed only diminishes credibility―the ugly truth is that the problem lies not with monetary policy but in the need to construct a modern, appropriate set of fiscal and regulatory levers and pulleys to better incentivize the private sector to channel money into productive use in expanding our economy and enriching our people.』
いやまあそれはそうなんですが一応デュアルマンデートというのもある訳ですが先生。
『Only Congress, working together with the president, has the power to write the rules and provide the incentives to correct the course of the great ship we know and love as America. I hope you, as the voters who put them in office, will demand no less of them.』
更にリザーブターゲットを拡大するSNB [外部リンク] National Bank intensifies measures against strong Swiss franc
『The measures taken thus far by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) against the strength of the Swiss franc are having an impact. Nevertheless, the Swiss franc remains massively overvalued. The SNB has therefore decided to expand again significantly the supply of liquidity to the Swiss franc money market.』
『In so doing, it is increasing the downward pressure on money market interest rates with a view to further weakening the Swiss franc exchange rate. With immediate effect, it aims to expand banks’ sight deposits at the SNB further, from CHF 120 billion to CHF 200 billion. In order to achieve this new target level as quickly as possible, it will continue to repurchase outstanding SNB Bills and to employ foreign exchange swaps. Furthermore, the SNB reiterates that it will, if necessary, take further measures against the strength of the Swiss franc.』
『The Committee set monetary policy in order to meet the inflation target in the medium term. Inflation had been well above the 2% target as a result of the temporary impact of higher energy and other commodity prices, the increase in the standard rate of VAT and the past depreciation of sterling.』
この辺の認識は毎月同じなのである。
『CPI inflation had fallen in June, but it was judged likely to rise again temporarily, to reach 5% in the coming months, boosted by further increases in utility prices.』
英国の場合は今年に入ってから電力などの公共料金が軒並み上昇したんでしたっけ。
『The Committee’s central view remained that inflation was likely to fall back in the medium term, as the impact of the factors raising inflation diminished and some downward pressure from a degree of slack in the labour market persisted. There were risks to that view, to the upside and the downside.』
『The key upside risk continued to be that inflation would be elevated for longer than the Committee expected. That could be as a result of expectations of above-target inflation becoming embedded in wage and price-setting behaviour; the margin of spare capacity in the economy being less than currently thought; or of further shocks to the price level.』
『Wage growth remained subdued, which suggested that employees had not so far been able to secure higher pay increases in response to the recent squeeze on real incomes. Some measures of the longer-term inflation expectations of households had risen over the past year. But longer-term expectations of professional forecasters and financial market participants had been broadly stable. Overall, most indicators remained close to their series averages.』
『Nevertheless, CPI inflation was expected to reach 5% in the coming months, and itwas unclear how medium-term inflation expectations would react. Margin levels in consumer-facing sectors probably remained below their pre-recession levels, and any attempt by those firms to rebuild their margins could put upward pressure on inflation.』
『The indications that the pace of global growth was moderating suggested that energy and other commodity prices were less likely to continue rising. Import price pass-through from sterling’s past depreciation appeared to be more or less complete, although the possibility of further pass-through could not be excluded.』
『The key risk to the downside remained that demand growth would not be sufficiently strong to absorb the pool of spare capacity in the economy, causing inflation to fall materially below target in the medium term. News over the month had generally reinforced the weak tone of indicators of global activity growth over the past few months, which had been particularly notable in data releases for the advanced economies. While some of the slowing would have reflected the impact of continuing disruption to global supply chains, and the effects of the elevated price of oil, the Committee judged it increasingly likely that the global slowdown would prove to be more prolonged than previously assumed.』
『In the United Kingdom, it was likely that underlying growth in the second quarter had been stronger than suggested by the headline number for GDP, but indicators of the evolution of activity in the near term had been subdued, especially for consumption and in the manufacturing sector.』
先行きの経済活動が抑制されそうキタコレ。
『Much of the moderation in UK manufacturing output appeared to be related to the slowdown in world activity, and the consequent implications for export orders. Business confidence had fallen, and appeared to be weighing on investment intentions, and perhaps also on employment growth.』
ここぞとばかりに残念な見通しが。
『The lower path for Bank Rate now implied by market interest rates would serve partly to offset this weaker outlook. Evidence of slowing activity, and more particularly concerns about fiscal policy in the United States and the substantial challenges faced by the euro area, had resulted in stressed conditions in financial markets which were reflected in a wide range of asset classes. This had further elevated the funding costs faced by banks. If stress in financial markets persisted, it also had the potential to constrain banks’ ability to raise as much term funding as they desired. In consequence, the price and availability of credit to many households and businesses could be adversely affected.』
『The greatest risk to the downside stemmed from the euro area.』
”The greatest risk”キタコレ。
『Concerns about the euro area were likely already to be affecting the economic outlook through their impact on asset prices, bank funding costs and the level of household and business confidence. Reflecting that, the Committee’s projections were conditioned on relatively slow growth in the euro area. There were, however, additional risks relating to a significant further intensification of concerns.』
つーことでユーロ圏の問題が最大のリスクなのですが。
『These could affect the United Kingdom through a number of channels, including: the impact a further slowing in euro-area activity would have on UK exports; financial and banking sector interlinkages; and possibly, and perhaps most significantly, through a disruption to the functioning of the international financial system more generally - hitting global asset prices, wholesale funding markets, and business and household confidence.』
『Those additional risks were almost impossible to calibrate in terms of their probability or impact. Members of the Committee held differing views about the extent to which those risks should influence the Committee’s immediate policy decision. On balance, most members saw little merit in seeking to react to the possibility of these risks crystallising by adjusting monetary policy in advance.』
『There remained substantial risks to inflation in the medium term in both directions. But overall the news on the month had increased the downside risks. Committee members considered the cases for different policy actions.』
『Inflation had been well above the 2% target as a result of the temporary boost from higher energy and other commodity prices, the increase in the standard rate of VAT and the past depreciation of sterling. Despite the fall in CPI inflation in June, it was likely that inflation would rise further, to over 5%, in the coming months.』
『In the light of recent developments in utility and food prices, the peak in inflation was likely to be a little higher and come sooner than the Committee had previously expected.』
あちゃー。
『The Committee’s central view remained that a margin of spare capacity in the economy was likely to push down inflation and bring it back towards the target in the medium term, as the impact of the factors temporarily boosting inflation subsided.』
この部分も毎回同じように言ってまして、まあお経状態ですわなという所っすが。
『But there were material risks to that view, both to the upside and to the downside. The Committee discussed how those risks had evolved since its previous meeting.』
『The key risk to the downside was that demand growth would not be sufficiently strong to soak up the pool of spare capacity in the economy, leading inflation to fall materially below the target in the medium term.』
『The latest indicators suggested that the pace of global activity had slowed, although it was not clear how persistent this would prove to be. Some of the slowing in global activity reflected the temporary impact of the continuing disruption to supply chains caused by the Japanese earthquake and tsunami in March, and the effects of the elevated price of oil.』
『The risks posed by an intensification of the sovereign debt and banking problems within the euro area to the prospects for economic activity and the financial system at home had remained substantial. The funding costs faced by the major UK banks remained elevated, in part reflecting those risks emanating from within the euro area, and were likely to continue to affect the price and availability of credit to many households and businesses adversely.』
『Indicators had pointed towards continued modest underlying UK GDP growth in the second quarter and, more tentatively, to some softening in the outlook for the third quarter. But the implications of weaker activity for inflation would depend on the factors that had caused it. Partly in response to the more downbeat news on the outlook for economic activity, investors had put back their central estimate of when official interest rates would begin to rise and the sterling effective exchange rate had fallen modestly. This was likely, in time, to provide some countervailing stimulus to economic activity.』
『The key risk to the upside was that the period of elevated inflation would persist for longer than the Committee expected. Expectations of above-target inflation could become entrenched in price and wage-setting behaviour; employees might press harder for wage increases in response to recent declines in living standards; or there might be further upward pressure on prices arising from energy and other internationally traded goods prices.』
『According to one survey-based measure, households’expectations of inflation in the medium term had increased markedly, to a little above their previous peak in 2008. But measures of inflation expectations derived from financial markets had been stable.』
『There was no clear evidence that higher inflation expectations had begun to feed through into wage-setting behaviour. Earnings growth had remained subdued. But earnings growth was affected by a range of factors, making it hard to infer clearly what impact inflation expectations might have had. It remained unclear how much comfort to draw from recent labour market developments, given the puzzling behaviour of productivity over the recent past.』
『Most members judged that it was appropriate to maintain the current stance of monetary policy at this meeting.』
現状維持ですかそうですか。
『It was likely that the current weakness in activity would persist for longer than previously thought, although the reduction over the month in the exchange rate and in market interest rates would provide some countervailing stimulus to the economy.』
『That weakness, together with the continued subdued behaviour of earnings, reinforced the case that inflation was likely to fall back once the temporary impact of the factors pushing up on it had waned.』
『But there also remained upside risks associated with the sustained period of above-target inflation.』
ただまあインフレに関してはアップサイドリスクもあります。
『There was a range of views on the balance of these downside and upside risks. Overall, however, recent developments had reduced the likelihood that a tightening in policy would be warranted in the near term.』
こんなのは初めて見たんですが。 [外部リンク] by Narayana Kocherlakota on Dissenting Vote at August 9, 2011, Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee Narayana Kocherlakota - President Published August 12, 2011
『One of my jobs as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is to serve on the Federal Open Market Committee. At its last meeting on August 9, the Committee took what I viewed as a significant policy step. I dissented from its decision. I believe that transparency is an essential part of effective policy formation, and so I’m offering this brief explanation of my decision. These views are not necessarily those of others on the Federal Open Market Committee, including presidents Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser.』
『First, the Federal Reserve owned over $2.5 trillion of long-term government and government-backed securities. The purchase of the final $600 billion of these assets was announced in November 2010 and completed by the end of June 2011.』
『Second, as it had since December 2008, the Committee was maintaining the fed funds rate at between 0 and 25 basis points.』
『Third, as it had since March 2009, the Committee statement included the forward guidance that it anticipated keeping the fed funds rate at this low level for “an extended period.” The “extended period” is generally interpreted as being between three and six months. 』
『The Committee adopted this three-part policy stance in November 2010. I agreed with this decision and supported it publicly at that time and throughout this year.』
2010年11月(QE2実施)から現在のセット(額なども含めて)になっていますと。
『In its August 9 meeting, the Committee changed this “extended period” language to say instead that it “currently anticipates economic conditions … are likely to warrant extraordinarily low levels of the federal funds rate through mid-2013.”』
さよですな。
『This statement is designed to let the public know that the fed funds rate is likely to stay between 0 and 25 basis points over the next two years, not just over the next three to six months. Hence, the new language is intended to provide more monetary accommodation than before.』
『I dissented from this change in language because the evolution of macroeconomic data did not reflect a need to make monetary policy more accommodative than in November 2010. In particular, personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation rose notably in the first half of 2011, whether or not one includes food and energy. At the same time, while unemployment does remain disturbingly high, it has fallen since November.』
『I can summarize my reasoning as follows. I believe that in November, the Committeejudiciously chose a level of accommodation that was well calibrated for the prevailing economic conditions. Since November, inflation has risen and unemployment has fallen. I do not believe that providing more accommodation-easing monetary policy-is the appropriate response to these changes in the economy. 』
『Going forward, my votes on monetary policy will continue to be based on the evolution of the data on PCE inflation and its components, medium-term PCE inflation expectations, and unemployment. 』
[外部リンク] statement to the press conference (with Q&A)
質疑応答の最後の方に唐突にこんな質問が。
『Question: I would like to ask about the intervention in the forex market of Japan. Are you in support of that, and is it also the same recognition as the consolidated intervention in March? Is it critical or not? Is it some kind of critical movement or decision? How do you evaluate this decision?』
『Trichet: I will only say that we have a very clear position in the Governing Council of the ECB. We consider that such interventions have to be made on the basis of a multilateral consensus and a multilateral decision. That is our position. It’s a clear-cut position that we have always had. To my knowledge what has been done is not part of a multilateral decision.』
[外部リンク] National Bank expands measures against strong Swiss franc
『The substantial rise in risk aversion on the international financial markets has further intensified the overvaluation of the Swiss franc in the last few days. In the light of these developments, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is taking additional measures against the strength of the Swiss franc. It will again significantly increase the supply of liquidity to the Swiss franc money market. The SNB aims to rapidly expand banks’ sight deposits at the SNB from currently CHF 80 billion to CHF 120 billion.』
『To accelerate the increase in Swiss franc liquidity, the SNB will additionally conduct foreign exchange swap transactions. The foreign exchange swap is a monetary policy instrument which the SNB uses to create Swiss franc liquidity. It was last employed in autumn 2008.』
ふむふむ。
『The massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc poses a threat to the development of the economy in Switzerland and has further increased the downside risks to price stability. The SNB is keeping a close watch on developments on the foreign exchange market and on financial markets. If necessary, it will take further measures against the strength of the Swiss franc.』
[外部リンク] Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.』(昨日のFOMC声明文の例の部分をしつこく再掲)
でね、あたしゃ昨日も申し上げましたがこれには一応時間軸という言い方しましたけど、「時間軸(でも実はコミットメントが伴わない)」と括弧付きで申し上げた次第なので、当然ながら後者の見解を取るのでございまする。その理由は大体昨日書いたから重複になるので割愛しますが、要は「The Committee currently anticipates」という所を素直に読んだらそうなりますよね、という話でしたが昨日の駄文(そういや昨日のFOMC声明文読みで途中でパラグラフ番号を1つ飛ばしてましたねすいません)を詳しくはご参照ありたしざます。
『To promote the ongoing economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent.』(今回)
FF誘導金利水準を0%-0.25%にするという話は前回と同じなのでスルー。
『The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.』(今回)
『The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.』(前回)
ということで時間軸キタコレということでございますが、小見出しにつけた「コミットメントがありませんなあ」という論点については後で申し上げます。でですな、今回は「FOMCは経済の状況---資源の活用が低水準であること、中期的なインフレ見込みが抑制されていること---が、異例の低水準であるFF金利を少なくとも2013年半ばまでは正当化するでしょうと現在は予想します」(日本語訳がヘタクソでどうもすいませんすいません)という表現になっておりまして、従来お馴染みだった「for an extended period」という表現から時期を明示したという形になりました。
まあ時間軸ちゃあ時間軸なのですが、これに関するツッコミは後で。
『The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate.』(今回)
『The Committee discussed the range of policy tools available to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. It will continue to assess the economic outlook in light of incoming information and is prepared to employ these tools as appropriate.』(今回)
『The Committee will monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will act as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.』(前回)
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.
Voting against the action were: Richard W. Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, and Charles I. Plosser, who would have preferred to continue to describe economic conditions as likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.』(今回)
ということで、今回は「for an extended period」の文言変更に関してフィッシャー、コチャラコタ、プロッサーの各地区連銀総裁が反対票を突っ込んで参りまして、さあ盛り上がってまいりましたというところですが、実はここもと地区連銀総裁とかが景気や金融政策に関する講演とかが色々出てたので、もっと読んでおかないといけない所なのですが、何せ色々と微妙にネタがアルモンテなので中々追いつかないでござるの巻でありまする。
○ということで時間軸なんですけどコミットメントが無いのは微妙
てな訳で以下はあたくしの私見(つーかその前もあたくしの私見だが^^)っすけどね。
『The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.』(今回の時間軸部分再掲)
[外部リンク] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower than the Committee had expected. 』(今回)
『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the economic recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, though somewhat more slowly than the Committee had expected. 』(前回)
『Indicators suggest a deterioration in overall labor market conditions in recent months, and the unemployment rate has moved up. Household spending has flattened out, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector remains depressed. However, business investment in equipment and software continues to expand. 』(今回)
『Also, recent labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated. The slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan. Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand. However, investment in nonresidential structures is still weak, and the housing sector continues to be depressed. 』(前回)
『Temporary factors, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan, appear to account for only some of the recent weakness in economic activity. 』(今回)
『The slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan. 』(前回(先ほど引用したものの一部再掲))
・物価に関しても微妙に弱い話に(次のパラグラフで見通しが下げられる)
『Inflation picked up earlier in the year, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods, as well as the supply chain disruptions. More recently, inflation has moderated as prices of energy and some commodities have declined from their earlier peaks. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.』(今回)
『Inflation has picked up in recent months, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods, as well as the recent supply chain disruptions. However, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.』(前回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. 』(今回)
これはいつもの文言ですのでまあスルー(前回と同じです)
・景気回復ペースおよび失業率改善の見通しについて
『The Committee now expects a somewhat slower pace of recovery over coming quarters than it did at the time of the previous meeting and anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. 』(今回)
『The unemployment rate remains elevated; however, the Committee expects the pace of recovery to pick up over coming quarters and the unemployment rate to resume its gradual decline toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. 』(前回)
今後数四半期における景気回復ペースについて今回は「a somewhat slower pace of recovery」「than it did at the time of the previous meeting」と景気回復のペースについて「前回のFOMCで委員会が予想したよりも幾分か弱いペースになるでしょう」という表現に変更し、更に失業率に関しては「the unemployment rate will decline only gradually」となりまして、前回の「the unemployment rate to resume its gradual decline」という表現との差は微妙ではありますが、おそらく「only」っつーのが強調表現だと思う(のだが違ってたら教えてジェネラル)ので、先行きの失業率改善に対しても回復ペースが弱まるとの見立てになっているのでしょう。
・「ダウンサイドリスクが拡大」
『Moreover, downside risks to the economic outlook have increased. 』(今回) 今回はこの一文が新たに追加されています。
・物価に関して
『The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate further.』(今回)
『Inflation has moved up recently, but the Committee anticipates that inflation will subside to levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate.』(前回)
