[外部リンク] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately.』(今回) 『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately.』(前回)
全く同じですな、うんうん。
労働市場、消費支出、企業投資に関しては実質的に差は無いと思われます。
『Labor market conditions have improved in recent months; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to advance.』(今回)
『Labor market conditions have improved further; the unemployment rate has declined notably in recent months but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to advance.』(前回)
『Despite some signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed.』(今回) 『The housing sector remains depressed.』(前回)
結論は同じですがご覧の通り。
インフレに関しては認識を引き上げキタコレ。
『Inflation has picked up somewhat, mainly reflecting higher prices of crude oil and gasoline. However, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.』(今回)
『Inflation has been subdued in recent months, although prices of crude oil and gasoline have increased lately. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.』(前回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. 』(今回) 『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. 』(前回)
まあこれは良いとして次ですけれども、経済の先行き見通しに関して変化があります。
『The Committee expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually. Consequently, the Committee anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline gradually toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. 』(今回)
『The Committee expects moderate economic growth over coming quarters and consequently anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate.』(前回)
『Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. 』(今回) 『Strains in global financial markets have eased, though they continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook.』(前回)
『The increase in oil and gasoline prices earlier this year is expected to affect inflation only temporarily, and the Committee anticipates that subsequently inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.』(今回)
『The recent increase in oil and gasoline prices will push up inflation temporarily, but the Committee anticipates that subsequently inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.』(前回)
『To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.』(今回)
『The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.』(今回)
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who does not anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate through late 2014.』 (今回)
○SEPの政策金利見通しが声明文と整合性が取れていない件について
ということでSEPの表紙部分公表である。
[外部リンク] Projections of Federal Reserve Board Members and Federal Reserve Bank Presidents, April 2012
『To the downside, the risk was that demand would not be strong enough to absorb the considerable margin of spare capacity in the economy. In the near term, it was possible that the ONS would report further contractions in output in the first and second quarters.』
『That might further damage household and business confidence, even if the underlying pace of economic expansion were stronger. It was also possible that underlying growth was not as strong as suggested by the business surveys. Further out, it was not easy to assess the speed at which domestic demand growth would return to more normal rates.』
『Although on current plans the pace of the fiscal consolidation was likely to slow, it would still act as a drag on growth for several years. The latest upward pressure on prices was liable to delay the point when real household income would begin to rise again. And, although any desire by households, firms and banks to build up a buffer of savings or to reduce leverage was unlikely to have a permanent effect on the growth rate of activity, it could have a persistent effect whose duration was very difficult to judge.』
『Regarding the stock of asset purchases, eight members of the Committee (the Governor, Charles Bean, Paul Tucker, Ben Broadbent, Spencer Dale, Paul Fisher, Adam Posen and Martin Weale) voted in favour of the proposition. One member of the Committee (David Miles) voted against, preferring to increase the size of the asset purchase programme by a further £25 billion to a total of £350 billion.』
『Twelve-month CPI inflation had fallen to 3.4% in February, down from 3.6% in January and its recent peak of 5.2% in September. If anything, the decline in February had been marginally less than the Committee had expected, and seasonally adjusted annualised monthly inflation rates had been somewhat higher than the inflation target.』
『There was a risk that inflation would fall less rapidly in the near term than the Committee had anticipated in its February Inflation Report central projection.』
『UK wholesale gas prices had risen by around 5% since then. This, together with the rise in oil prices since the start of the year, would put upward pressure on retail energy and petrol prices. And the additional increase in duties announced in the Budget would add around 0.1 percentage points to annual inflation from April.』
で、この先も落ち着くペースが遅くなりそうという話が次のパラグラフ。
『Some statistical projections were pointing to a path for CPI inflation in the coming months higher than would be consistent with the Committee’s central path from the February Inflation Report projections.』
ほう。
『But, as with all forecasts, there was a large margin of error around them, and they did not capture all of the forces acting on prices. In practice, the speed and extent of any further fall in inflation would depend on the rate at which external price pressures eased, and how rapidly domestically generated inflation would fall in response to weaker cost and price pressures from a recovery in productivity growth and the margin of spare capacity.』
そして第20パラグラフでは価格転嫁の動きについて触れています。
『Beyond recent rises in oil prices, the impact of external price pressures was difficult to gauge. The contribution of goods prices to twelve-month CPI inflation had fallen back only marginally in February.』
『This was consistent with a greater degree of pass-through into consumer prices from past increases in import prices, or upward pressure on margins from other sources. But it was also consistent with quicker pass-through, which would imply less upward pressure on consumer prices to come from this source further out.』
『It was also possible that firms would seek to increase their mark-up over labour costs in setting their prices.』
キタコレ。
『The share of profits of private non-financial non-oil companies in GDP was lower than at any time in the previous 25 years. To the extent that demand continued to be slow to recover, firms might seek to restore profit margins only gradually. 』
『Set against that, many firms had either less access to credit or access on more unfavourable terms than was the case before the crisis. This might lead them to be less willing to invest in gaining market share by keeping prices low, as they would have less recourse to external sources of funds should they run into cash-flow difficulties.』
今回長くなるので引用しませんでしたが、この前段の金融環境に関する議論の部分では「銀行の貸出態度に関しては厳しい部分もある」というような指摘がありまして、さてここではどういう話にそれが繋がっているかと言うと「Set against that」以下の所にある指摘でして、クレジットへのアクセスが厳しいので、企業は価格設定行動において価格を下げてシェア拡大を図るインセンティブが下がる(増加運転資金需要が発生するから)事から、それよりも収益マージンを確保してキャッシュフローを確保する行動に向かい、その結果企業の価格転嫁が進むという何か屁理屈のような気もしますが、まあそういう指摘をしていてほほーという感じです。
『The current challenges facing the Committee as it sought to set monetary policy in order to meet the inflation target in the medium term had been thrown into sharp relief by the downside news on the near-term path of GDP likely to be published by the ONS and by the upside news on the near-term path for inflation.』
『There had been unexpected falls in the ONS’s measures of output in manufacturing and, in particular, construction. The sharp falls in construction output in December and January were perplexing, and the Committee was minded not to place much weight on them, particularly given that other indicators of construction activity had suggested far more modest declines.』
『The mechanical impact of the drop in construction output, together with the likely subsequent loss of activity around the Jubilee bank holiday, could lead the ONS to report further falls in GDP in both the first and second quarters of this year. But a wide range of survey indicators pointed to a moderate rate of growth in activity in the first half of the year and this was supported by official data on services output. Underlying aggregate activity growth was likely, if anything, to have picked up since the second half of 2011.』
『Twelve-month CPI inflation had fallen for five successive months, to 3.4% in February from a recent peak of 5.2% in September. This fall had been welcome but had been slightly less than the Committee had expected. That in itself was not a significant cause for concern but, alongside the recent rise in oil and gas prices, as well as the duty changes announced in the Budget, it meant that the path for inflation in the short run was likely to be higher than indicated in the most recent Inflation Report central projections. The speed at which inflation would return towards target could not be judged with any precision and there were risks on both sides.』
『To the upside, the risk was that elevated inflation might be more persistent than the Committee expected and that the Committee’s commitment to achieving the target might be called into question.』
>the risk was that the Committee’s commitment to achieving the target might be called into question. >the risk was that the Committee’s commitment to achieving the target might be called into question. >the risk was that the Committee’s commitment to achieving the target might be called into question.
『This risk arose from both external and domestic sources.』
ホームメイドインフレのリスクもあるとな。
『Further shocks to oil and other commodity prices remained a possibility, and there could be greater external price pressures from other sources, or greater pass-through of these pressures to consumer prices.』
海外要因は商品や原油価格の上昇の価格転嫁によるものということで。
『Domestically, companies could seek to rebuild margins more aggressively than anticipated, perhaps with a view to achieving a target for cash flow in an environment of uncertain credit supply or because the prolonged period of above-target inflation had enabled them to raise their prices more easily.』
『Against that backdrop, it was notable that seasonally adjusted annualised monthly inflation rates were somewhat higher than the inflation target. The large margin of slack in the labour market was restraining the rate of growth of earnings. But given the continuing weakness in productivity growth, it was possible that nominal wages were nonetheless still increasing rapidly enough that unit labour cost growth was consistent with the inflation target.』
『71 たとえば、パラレルシフトの場合、金利上昇後1 年間の資金利益の増加額はTier I 資本との対比でみて大手行で0.3%となる。一方、地域銀行の資金利益はTier I 資本との対比でみて0.9%の減少となる。』
とのこと。
『金利上昇により資金利益が増加する場合でも、金利上昇後1 年程度では、資金利益の増加額は債券時価損失額と比べて小さい。このため、短期的には金利上昇は銀行のTier I 比率を押し下げる方向に作用する。パラレルシフトの場合、Tier I 比率の押し下げ幅(期間収益勘案後)は、2012 年度上期末時点で、大手行で0.3%pt 程度、地域銀行で0.4%pt 程度となる72。もっとも、地域銀行のうち3割以上の銀行でTier I 比率の押し下げ幅が1%pt を超える(図表V-2-3)。地域銀行は自己資本対比で金利リスク量が大きい分、金利上昇の影響を引き続き受けやすい状況にある。』
Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting held on 4 & 5 April 2012 [外部リンク] the stock of asset purchases, eight members of the Committee (the Governor, Charles Bean, Paul Tucker, Ben Broadbent, Spencer Dale, Paul Fisher, Adam Posen and Martin Weale) voted in favour of the proposition. One member of the Committee (David Miles) voted against, preferring to increase the size of the asset purchase programme by a further £25 billion to a total of £350 billion.』
つーかね、これは書いている人のテクニックの問題ですけれども、FRBの示した『principles regarding its longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy』にはobjectiveとかtargetという言葉は使っていなくて、日銀の英文版(ただし正本は日本語版なので英文版はあくまでもご参考ではありますが)でもgoalという単語を使っているのですが、この書き方だと(この部分は先ほどのFRBガーの所の続きね)如何にもFRBが示しているのはobjectiveとかtargetであるかのような印象を与えるような操作をしている所とか(FRBがobjectiveとかtargetとかいう言い方をしている、とは一言も言っていないので別にその点で嘘八百を書いている訳では無いが)、最早アジビラのテクニックといった風格を漂わせるホンモノの香りを感じます。
『Even though the unemployment rate has declined sharply from 9 percent last September to 8.2 percent in March, it is still unacceptably high. In addition, many other measures of the labor market remain weak. The labor force participation rate, the percentage of people employed, and the total number of hours worked in the economy all dropped sharply during the recession and remain well below their pre-recession levels, even taking into account the impact of demographic shifts. Also, it appears that productivity growth has slumped recently. Although that means that a given amount of growth translates into bigger employment gains, it certainly is not an unmitigated positive development.』
『Also, we cannot lose sight of the fact that the economy still faces significant headwinds and that there are some meaningful downside risks. In the headwinds department, I would include the run-up in gasoline prices mentioned earlier because that will sap purchasing power, the continued impediments to a strong recovery from ongoing weakness in the housing sector, and fiscal drag at the federal and state and local levels. In terms of downside risks, these include the risk that growth abroad disappoints and the risk of further disruptions to the supply of oil and higher oil prices.』
『While the underlying core inflation rate, that strips out volatile food and energy prices, has been somewhat higher than expected a few months back, it appears that the annual rate of core inflation1 has peaked and we expect it to begin to decline later this year. Finally, inflation expectations, which play an important role in the inflation process, remain well anchored. By this I mean that people expect that the rate of inflation will continue to be relatively low for some time to come.』
『What the New York Fed Does』という所で、NY連銀が地区の景気状況を把握するためにどのような事をやっているのかという話をこれでもかと説明しているのですが、この説明を見ておりますと(そらまあ国土の広さの差があるけど)日銀の支店(大きな支店は別にして)だとそれこそ支店長と調査にあたる人が1名とか2名とかいうような陣容で地域経済の調査をしているのとはだいぶ違ってまあ日銀としてはウラヤマシスという感じなのではないかと思いますけどどうなんでしょうかねえ。
今回のダドリー総裁の日程(?)はこのようになっているそうな。
『To help me gather more information about the region, yesterday, I had breakfast in Syracuse with business and community leaders at the Center for Economic Development. Then I met with the staff of PathStone, a community development organization, met faculty and students at the Maxwell School of Syracuse University and had lunch with university officials who manage the tech transfer process. In the afternoon, we drove to Skaneateles Falls to tour Welch Allyn, a manufacturer of medical diagnostic instruments. Dr. Julie Shimer is the president and CEO. Dr. Shimer was also recently appointed chair of the Empire State Development Corporation, and we talked about challenges and opportunities for economic development in New York State.』
『After this morning’s gathering, I will speak with staff of the Empire Justice Center, meet with Lt. Governor Bob Duffy, convene a meeting of our Upstate Advisory Board, whose members are major leaders in the upstate economy, and visit the Roswell Park Cancer Institute to learn about their role in economic development in western New York and in the broader world arena.』
中々充実した日程ですな。んでもって連銀スタッフのお仕事はこんな感じ。
『My colleagues and I at the New York Fed continually track conditions in our District, and we have created a number of tools for that purpose. For example, my staff produces monthly indexes of economic activity for New York City, the state of New York and New Jersey. These indexes are essentially measures of local output-similar to gross domestic product, or GDP, at the national level. These measures provide a more complete gauge of activity than the employment report, which is another important metric at the state level. We have also constructed a consumer credit panel to track local household credit conditions at the county and even the zip code level, including the amount and type of personal debt and whether payments are being made in a timely way.』
『In addition, we conduct a periodic poll about the credit needs of small businesses, which are an important source of new jobs. We are just launching our latest poll that also includes questions about the skill needs of small businesses and whether the right kinds of skilled labor are available. Almost 900 regional businesses responded to our last poll, some of which were from this region. If you, as a representative of a small business, would like to participate in our current poll, please pass your card to my colleagues, who are in the audience, or see me after the speech and we will be glad to add you as a respondent.』
『I have the great fortune to serve as vice chair of the FOMC that meets eight times a year in Washington to set interest rates and make other decisions about monetary policy. The members of this committee all strive to set policy to advance the mandate given to us by Congress to promote the maximum level of employment consistent with price stability.』
とまあここまでは良いとして・・・・・・
『Sometimes we have different views on the specific policy choice at hand, and you should view this as completely appropriate: these are hard questions-particularly during difficult economic circumstances such as we face today. In fact, I think we make better decisions as a committee because we don't all think alike.』
『But we are united in our commitment to our dual mandate and in our belief that Fed independence is essential to the public interest. That independence allows us to make tough decisions insulated from short-term political pressures.』
>That independence allows us to make tough decisions insulated from short-term political pressures. >That independence allows us to make tough decisions insulated from short-term political pressures. >That independence allows us to make tough decisions insulated from short-term political pressures.
ま、米国の場合は逆方向の「short-term political pressures」のような気もしますが、追加緩和したら株が上がって為替が円安に振れたけどその勢いがなくなったから緩和の効果が落ちているとかどう見ても短期的視点です本当にカムサハムニダな論点で政治的圧力をせっせとお掛けになられる政治家の皆様たちにおかれましてはちったあ落ち着けやと思うのでありますけどねえなどと存じます。
で、先週12日の講演の時には追加緩和がどうのこうので米国株式市場が反応したりしてたような気がするんですが・・・・・・ [外部リンク] sum up, the incoming data on the U.S. economy has been a bit more upbeat of late, suggesting that the recovery may be getting better established. But, while these developments are certainly encouraging, it is far too soon to conclude that we are out of the woods in terms of generating a strong, sustainable recovery.』
『On the inflation front, the year-over-year rate of consumer price inflation has slowed in recent months, and despite the recent rise of gasoline prices, we expect inflation to moderate further in 2012.』
『The incoming data on the U.S. economy generally has been a bit more upbeat over the past few months, suggesting that the recovery may be finally establishing a somewhat firmer footing.』
『Real GDP expanded at a 3.0 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2011, the fastest growth since the first half of 2010. The average monthly job gain was 212,000 in the first quarter of 2012, up from 164,000 in the fourth quarter. Sales of light-weight motor vehicles were about 14-1/2 million at an annual rate in the first quarter, the best quarter for vehicle sales in four years. Survey measures of business activity have rebounded from their dips in the middle of last year, and are now at levels that typically indicate solid overall growth. Even housing starts have firmed somewhat in the last few months, although they remain at depressed levels.』
全体的に景気の良い話ですが・・・・・・
『While these developments are certainly encouraging, it is still too soon to conclude that we are out of the woods. To begin with, the economic data looked brighter at this point in 2010 and again in 2011, only to fade later in those years.』
『Moreover, the United States experienced unusually mild weather over the first quarter, with the number of heating degree days more than 20 percent below the average of the preceding five years, which may have pulled forward some economic activity and hiring.』
『In this regard, the somewhat softer March labor market report that was released last Friday may reflect the earlier positive influence of the mild weather on job creation in January and February, although other less sanguine interpretations are also plausible. We thus will need to see more data to determine the extent to which the March data represent a transitory weather-related setback.』
『Regardless of the importance of the mild winter in distorting the economic data, real economic activity has yet to be strong enough on a sustained basis to make a big dent in the overall amount of slack in the U.S. economy. While growth was stronger in the fourth quarter, most of it was due to inventory accumulation. Growth of final sales remained quite weak. Historically, quarters in which inventory investment makes significant growth contributions are typically followed by quarters in which that growth contribution is modest or even negative. That appears to be what is shaping up for the first quarter of this year. 』
『Based on available data, our current expectations are that real GDP will expand at around a 2-1/4 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2012.』
『Even with the robust increase of light vehicle sales, overall consumer spending in the first quarter appears to be rising at a similar moderate rate. At the same time, real disposable income has been flat over the past three months, and the large increase of gasoline prices is likely further sapping consumers’ real purchasing power. And growth of business investment spending, which softened in the fourth quarter of 2011, may have been even a little softer in the first quarter of this year.』
とまあそんな感じでイマイチ感が漂う話ですな。
『To put the recent pace of growth into perspective, we believe that the economy’s long-run sustainable growth rate-what economists call the potential growth rate-is around a 2-1/4 percent annual rate.』
ということで実質2.25%というのが潜在成長率と推測される数値とな。
『We need sustained growth above that rate to absorb the still substantial amount of unused productive capacity. Thus, our recent growth rates are barely keeping up with our potential.』
16:32 BN *SHIRAKAWA SAYS WILL TAKE APPROPRIATE POLICIES 16:32 BN *SHIRAKAWA : WILL CAREFULLY EXAMINE PRICE OUTLOOK AT NEXT MEETING 16:33 BN *SHIRAKAWA SAYS NO CHANGE TO EASING TO END DEFLATION
