『The latest indicators had continued to highlight the weakness of activity in the euro area. The composite output PMI had fallen in April in both core and periphery countries to around the levels seen the previous autumn, signalling contraction.』
『Business and consumer confidence indicators had also deteriorated. Consistent with this weakness, the euro-area unemployment rate had risen to 10.9% in March. Uncertainty was likely to continue to weigh on euro-area confidence and activity.』
これでもかという感じですなあ。
『The Greek election had been inconclusive and this had led to increased speculation that Greece would leave the euro area.』
こういうのちゃんと書くのよね。
『And concerns had increased about the Spanish government’s ability to deliver the planned fiscal consolidation against a poor economic background and further sovereign and banking sector downgrades.』
ということで・・・・・・・・
『The euro area continued to face fundamental challenges, in particular the need to reduce the indebtedness and improve the competitiveness of some member countries. Market participants’ perception of the risk of a disorderly outcome had increased; such an outcome could result in considerably lower output in the euro area and significant disruption to global banking and financial markets.』
『For example, that might be because firms with less access to credit were unwilling to cut prices when there was a risk that they would have less recourse to external funds should they run into cash-flow difficulties. There was also, however, the issue of very weak labour productivity growth.』
『The Committee discussed two possible broad explanations for this that were not mutually exclusive. Both suggested that the supply capacity of the economy had weakened alongside the weakness of demand.』
まあ両方の要因が効いているのではという話のようで。
『First of all it was possible that the weakness in productivity and demand had a common cause, such as the widespread fear of a disorderly resolution of the euro-area crisis. Symptoms would include elevated risk premia that raised bank funding costs and the cost of capital to companies, whether they were reliant on the banking system for finance or not, and weakened physical investment and innovation.』
『The second explanation was that the weakness in productivity had itself been caused by weakness in demand, perhaps because of mothballing of capital or reduced scope for learning on the job.』
『Elements of both explanations seemed to be evident and helped account for low productivity growth and the lack of more substantial downward pressure on domestic costs.』
『The weakness of productivity growth in recent years had contributed to the low level of businesses’ profit margins. It was possible that companies would seek to restore margins by increasing their prices, particularly if they thought that their competitors were also behaving in the same way.』
『The latest quarterly CBI surveys suggested that in the first quarter of 2012 there had been an increase of about 0.3 percentage points in the one-year ahead inflation expectations of companies. This was consistent with a similar increase in the Yougov/Citigroup survey of households’ one-year ahead inflation expectations.』
『The Committee had restarted its asset purchase programme in October and at its February meeting had announced an increase in the size of the programme of £50 billion to a total of £325 billion. This had recently been completed.』
ですな。
『As yet, there was no compelling evidence that the impact on nominal demand of this additional round of asset purchases would be materially different from previous asset purchases.』
『Recent market intelligence, low gilt yields and a pickup in sterling deposits by both residents and non-residents were consistent with asset purchases working as expected through the portfolio rebalancing channel with a lag. But the Committee would keep this under review in judging the policy actions required to support the recovery and meet the inflation target. In so doing, it would also need to take account of any decisions of the Financial Policy Committee that might have implications for the provision of credit to the wider economy and the pace of the recovery.』
[外部リンク] Before turning to its immediate policy decision, and against the background of its latest projections for output and inflation, the Committee discussed financial market developments; the international economy; money, credit, demand and output; and supply, costs and prices.』
『The improvement in sentiment over the first three months of the year had waned and a sense of caution had again become apparent in financial markets.』
まあもちろんその要因は欧州債務問題ですが。
『This reflected renewed concerns about the vulnerabilities associated with the indebtedness and competitiveness of several euro-area economies that had intensified after the results of elections in France and Greece.』
コア国とダメ国のスプレッド拡大はFTQの流れを示唆すると。
『Divergent movements in government bond yields suggested that there had been some flight to safety: yields on ten-year government bonds had fallen to historical lows in Germany and in the United Kingdom, but had risen again in Italy and Spain. Bank CDS premia were higher on the month, especially for Italian and Spanish banks. The partial nationalisation of Bankia, a large Spanish bank, had added to concerns.』
『There had been a further appreciation of sterling. In effective terms, sterling had risen by 2% since the Committee’s April meeting and was 8% higher than its low point in the middle of 2011.』
英国ポンドの実効レートは4月から2%、昨年の安値からは8%上昇しています。
『Market intelligence suggested that sterling had benefitted from investors seeking to shift funds into countries with higher perceived credit quality and liquid government bond markets while continuing to diversify their currency holdings.』
その要因はFTQです。
『While sterling remained almost 20% lower than it had been five years earlier, a continuing appreciation could have a material influence on the outlook for growth and inflation in the United Kingdom.』
でまあ話は飛んで為替つながりで『The international economy』の第8パラグラフに中国経済の話がありまして(まあ仕方ないのだが最近はここの部分で日本の話が全くと言っていいほど出て来ないのが何ともさびしい話ではある)これがほほーという感じで。
『GDP growth in China had slowed a little to 1.8% in the first quarter, but both the manufacturing and services PMIs increased modestly in April to levels similar to those reached in the first half of 2011.』
ここまでは足元の話。
『In recent years, domestic demand growth had accounted for more of China’s output growth and the current account surplus had fallen from a peak of over 10% of GDP in 2007 to a little under 3% of GDP in 2011. In part this had reflected a decline in China’s price competitiveness over this period as its real exchange rate appreciated.』
『This shift in the Chinese current account surplus raised the possibility that a sustainable reduction in global imbalances might be in train, although one counterpart had been an increase since 2009 in the current account surplus of oil exporters reflecting a higher price of oil, rather than a significant reduction in deficits elsewhere in the world.』
『The Bank recognizes that Japan's economy faces the critical challenge of overcoming deflation and returning to a sustainable growth path with price stability. This challenge will be met through efforts to strengthen the economy's growth potential and support from the financial side. The Bank continues to conduct policy in an appropriate manner.』(今回)
『The Bank recognizes that Japan's economy faces the critical challenge of overcoming deflation and returning to a sustainable growth path with price stability. The goal of overcoming deflation will be achieved both through efforts to strengthen the economy's growth potential and support from the financial side. With this in mind, the Bank will pursue powerful monetary easing, and will support private financial institutions in their efforts to strengthen the foundations for Japan's economic growth via the fund-provisioning measure to support strengthening the foundations for economic growth.(以下割愛)』(前々回)
『The Bank has been pursuing powerful monetary easing, with its virtually zero interest rate policy and implementation of the Program mainly through the purchase of financial assets. Such measures by the Bank have been supporting economic activity by encouraging a decline in longer-term interest rates and risk premiums, as well as by maintaining financial market stability. By continuing to pursue monetary easing with the virtually zero interest rate policy, easing effects are expected to strengthen on the back of progress in economic recovery.(以下割愛)』(前回)
ということで「the Bank will pursue powerful monetary easing」とか言ってたのが、「The Bank continues to conduct policy in an appropriate manner」とこらまたあっさり味の表現になっていて、クレクレが五月蝿いから削除したのかとか思うのですけれども、ここで削除するならそもそも何で2月の物価安定の目途を出したのかと小一時間問い詰めたいのですな。
[外部リンク] of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting held on 9 & 10 May 2012
『Regarding Bank Rate, the Committee voted unanimously in favour of the proposition.
Regarding the stock of asset purchases, eight members of the Committee (the Governor, Charles Bean, Paul Tucker, Ben Broadbent, Spencer Dale, Paul Fisher, Adam Posen and Martin Weale) voted in favour of the proposition. One member of the Committee (David Miles) voted against, preferring to increase the size of the asset purchase programme by a further £25 billion to a total of £350 billion.』
ということで、今回も8対1でした。議事要旨はこちらだが読んでる暇無いので週末に読む。 [外部リンク] Inflation 3.0% Next due:19 Jun 2012
とございまして、ああやっと3%まで低下したんですねという所ですな。
更にどうでも良いが・・・・・・・
[外部リンク] funds and quantitative easing Speech given by Charlie Bean, Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy, Bank of England
[外部リンク] Business ReportのDARREN GERSHさんによるものなのですが、仕込み質問なのかはわかりませんが(^^)、答えを見ると結果的に仕込み質問だったんじゃねえか位のいい感じの質疑応答の展開になっております(^^)。まあ良い答えを引き出すような質問をするのは記者さんの大事なお仕事でもありますけどね。
『DARREN GERSH. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Darren Gersh, Nightly Business Report. Some of your critics-I’m sure you’re not going to be surprised-think that you’re still being too cautious, that unemployment is still high, the economy may be slowing, inflation is subdued, and I know you just talked about the balance sheet. But given that, is the Committee now any closer to QE3 than it was at its last meeting?』
議長の答え。
『CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, first, the Committee has certainly been bold and aggressive in terms of easing monetary policy.』
『We’ve maintained the federal funds rate close to zero since late 2008. We’ve had two rounds of so-called quantitative easing. We’ve had a maturity extension program, which is ongoing. We have offered guidance about the federal funds rate that goes into at least late 2014.』
『So we have been very accommodative, and we remain prepared to do more as needed to make sure that this recovery continues and that inflation stays close to target. So, in particular, we will continue to assess, you know, looking at the economic outlook, looking at the risks, whether or not unemployment is making sufficient progress towards its longer-run normal level, and whether inflation is remaining close to target.』
『And, if appropriate, and depending also on assessment of the costs and risks of additional policy actions, we remain entirely prepared to take additional balance sheet actions if necessary to achieve our objectives.』
『So those tools remain very much on the table, and we will not hesitate to use them should the economy require that additional support.』
とドヤ顔で締めていますが、本当に打つネタがテーブルにあるのかは正直謎である。
・物価について(4ページ)
次の質疑ですがこれも面白かったので引用。
『JON HILSENRATH. Mr. Chairman, Jon Hilsenrath from the Wall Street Journal. The Fed has been forecasting for some time that inflation would fall to 2 percent or below. The latest measures of inflation suggest that the core PCE is at the higher end of that range and many other measures are above 2 percent. I noticed that in your forecast today that the upper end of your forecasts all the way through 2014 have increased. Do you see a risk that the disinflationary forces in the economy might not be as strong as the Fed had been projecting for some time?』
『CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, I would just say, first, that our projections still have inflation very close to our 2 percent target. As you point out, core inflation and some other measures of underlying inflation have been a little stronger than expected.』
ふむ。
『But I would say first that some of the movement in the first quarter, for example, seems to have come from transitory sources like nonmarket components. And the fundamentals of inflation-in particular, inflation expectations; the amount of slack in the economy; the commodity price behavior, which has been relatively well-controlled in recent months-all of those things suggest that inflation is going to stay close to or perhaps a bit below our 2 percent target.』
『Now, as I mentioned in the opening remarks and as we said in our briefing, the recent rise in gasoline prices has created a temporary bulge in headline inflation, in overall inflation, but we expect that to pass through the system and, assuming no new shocks in the oil sector, inflation ought to moderate to about 2 percent later this year.』
1Qの物価上昇は一時的要因によるもので、物価を巡るファンダメンタルズは物価抑制を示唆していますと。
『JON HILSENRATH. Why did the lower bound in those forecasts rise?』
と同じ人が続いてSEPでの予測の下限値が上昇した事に関する質問。
『CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. The lower bound rose-again, this represents 17 distinct views-but I would guess that the reason is that the data have come in a little bit firmer, core inflation has been a little stronger than was expected. But those differences are not particularly large.』
『PEDRO DA COSTA. Mr. Chairman, Pedro da Costa from Reuters. So we know that the Committee foresees rates staying very low until late 2014. What is your personal view on the timing of the first rate hike, on the likely timing? And second, do you see the Committee as having an easing bias at the moment or is it neutral? Could it go either way?』
『CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, I’m very comfortable with the consensus view that we enunciated today, and I think that the Committee broadly is comfortable-a 9-to-1 vote in favor of this guidance.』
ガイダンス文言に対してI’m very comfortableと来ましたな。
『So again, that represents a very accommodative stance of policy. Our intention is to maintain a highly accommodative stance of policy for the foreseeable future, and we remain able and willing to take further action if necessary.』
また緩和系サービス発言でございますよ。
『At the same time, I think it is worth noting that the forward guidance on the federal funds rate is conditional on the data, and if the data were to come in much stronger than expected, we would adjust the guidance appropriately. So it’s not unconditional; it does depend on how the outlook evolves. And again, should the outlook strengthen notably, then we would have to respond to that.』
『BINYAMIN APPELBAUM. Unemployment is too high, and you said you expect it to remain too high for years to come. Inflation is under control, and you say that you expect it to remain under control. You say that you have additional tools available for you to use, but you’re not using them right now.』
と最初から挑発的ですが。
『Under these circumstances, it’s really hard for a lot of people to understand why you are not using those tools right now. Could you address that?』
『CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Yeah. Let me tackle that second part first.』
クルーグマンなどによる批判の答えが先にキター!
『So there’s this view circulating that the views I expressed about 15 years ago on the Bank of Japan are somehow inconsistent with our current policies.』
思いっきりここから話が来ます。
『That is absolutely incorrect. Our-my views and our policies today are completely consistent with the views that I held at that time.』
ほほう。
『I made two points at that time to the Bank of Japan.』
ほうほうそれでそれで?
『The first was that I believe that a determined central bank could and should work to eliminate deflation-that is, falling prices. The second point that I made was that when short-term interest rates hit zero, the tools of a central bank are no longer-are not exhausted, there are still other things that the central bank can do to create additional accommodation.』
『Now, looking at the current situation in United States, we are not in deflation. When deflation became a significant risk in late 2010, or at least a modest risk in late 2010, we used additional balance sheet tools to help return inflation close to the 2 percent target.』
『Likewise, we have been aggressive and creative in using non-federal-funds-rate-centered tools to achieve additional accommodation for the U.S. economy.』
aggressiveなのはまあ同意するがcreativeだっけという気はする。
『So the very critical difference between the Japanese situation 15 years ago and the U.S. situation today is that Japan was in deflation, and, clearly, when you’re in deflation and in recession, then both sides of your mandates, so to speak, are demanding additional accommodation.』
『In this case, it’s-we are not in deflation, we have an inflation rate that’s close to our objective. Now, why don’t we do more?』
『Well, first I would again reiterate that we are doing a great deal; policy is extraordinarily accommodative. We-and I won’t go through the list again, but you know all the things that we have done to try to provide support to the economy.』
で、その後はクルーグマンらによる批判に対して反撃の巻。
『I guess the question is, does it make sense to actively seek a higher inflation rate in order to achieve a slightly increased reduction-a slightly increased pace of reduction in the unemployment rate?』
『The view of the Committee is that that would be very reckless. We have-we, the Federal Reserve, have spent 30 years building up credibility for low and stable inflation, which has proved extremely valuable in that we’ve been be able to take strong accommodative actions in the last four or five years to support the economy without leading to an unanchoring of inflation expectations or a destabilization of inflation. To risk that asset for what I think would be quite tentative and perhaps doubtful gains on the real side would be, I think, an unwise thing to do.』
同じく『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』から。今回はこのパラグラフが一番物理的に長いと思います。
『Labor market conditions continued to improve, although unusually warm weather may have inflated payroll job figures somewhat earlier this year. Contacts in some parts of the country said that highly qualified workers were in short supply; overall, however, wage pressures had been limited so far.』
労働市場は若干改善しているけれども天候要因部分も。労働者スキルのミスマッチ問題もとな。
『The decline in labor force participation, which has been sharpest for younger workers, has been a factor in the nearly 1 percentage point decline in the unemployment rate since last August, a drop that was larger than would have been predicted from the historical relationship between real GDP growth and changes in the unemployment rate.』
『Assessing the extent to which the changes in labor force participation reflect cyclical factors that will be reversed once the recovery picks up, as opposed to changes in the trend rate of participation, was seen as important for understanding unemployment dynamics going forward. One participant cited research suggesting that about half of the decline in labor force participation had reflected cyclical factors, and thus, as participation picks up, unemployment may decline more slowly in coming quarters compared with the recent pace. Another posited that the strength in payroll job growth in recent months may be a one-time reaction to the sharp layoffs in 2008 and 2009 and that future job gains may be somewhat weaker unless the pace of economic growth increases.』
労働参加率が増えない件について循環的なものか構造的なものかという事に関する話ですが。
『Participants expressed a range of views on the extent to which the unemployment rate was being boosted by structural factors such as mismatches between the skills of unemployed workers and those being demanded by hiring firms.』
『A few participants acknowledged there could be structural factors at work, but said that in their view, slack remained high and weak aggregate demand was the major reason that unemployment was still elevated. Two noted the possibility that sustained high levels of long-term unemployment could result in higher structural unemployment, an outcome that might be forestalled by increased aggregate demand. A few participants noted that current measures of labor market slack would be overstated if structural factors accounted for a large portion of the current high levels of unemployment. As a result, such measures might be an unreliable guide as to how close the economy was to maximum employment. These participants pointed out that, over time, estimates of the potential level of output have declined, reducing, as a consequence, estimates of the level of economic slack. Some participants cited the recent rise in inflation, abstracting from the direct effect of the rise in energy prices, as supportive of the view that the level of slack was lower than some believe. 』
ちなみに3月〜4月の積み期間の当座預金残高ですけれども、都銀とその他が増えていて信託がやや減っているという感じですかそうですか。 [外部リンク] Policy under Alternative Scenarios』という妙な小見出しが。
『A staff presentation provided an overview of an exercise that explored individual participants' views on appropriate monetary policy responses under alternative economic scenarios.』
『Committee participants discussed the potential value and drawbacks of this type of exercise for both internal deliberations and external communications about monetary policy.』
『Possible benefits include helping to clarify the factors that individual participants judge most important in forming their views about the economic outlook and their assessments of appropriate monetary policy. Two potential limitations of this approach are that the scenario descriptions must by necessity be incomplete, and the practical range of scenarios that can be examined may be insufficient to be informative, given the degree of uncertainty surrounding possible outcomes.』
『Some participants stated that exercises using alternative scenarios, with appropriate adjustments, could potentially be helpful for internal deliberations and, thus, should be explored further. However, no decision was made at this meeting regarding future exercises along these lines.』
という事ですので、そのうちSEPだか何だかの形でこの『Monetary Policy under Alternative Scenarios』というのが出るんでしょうなあというのは把握した。
・景気認識に関しては実は強めだったりする
んでもって景気認識の部分ですけれども、『Staff Review of the Economic Situation』の部分でも『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』の部分でも景気認識は強めになっているのが特徴的ではあります。
長々と引用するときりがないのでまあちょっとだけ。
『Staff Review of the Economic Situation』の冒頭部分。
『The information reviewed at the April 24-25 meeting suggested that economic activity was expanding moderately. Payroll employment continued to move up, and the unemployment rate, while still elevated, declined a little further. Overall consumer price inflation increased somewhat, primarily reflecting higher prices of crude oil and gasoline, but measures of long-run inflation expectations remained stable.』
『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』の第2パラグラフ部分(第1パラグラフはSEPを作りましたですお的な記述)から。
『In their discussion of the economic situation and outlook, meeting participants agreed that the information received since the Committee's previous meeting suggested that the economy continued to expand moderately. Labor market conditions improved in recent months. So far this year, payroll employment had expanded at a faster pace than last year and the unemployment rate had declined further, although it remained elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment continued to expand. There were signs of improvement in the housing sector, but from a very low level of activity. Despite some volatility in financial markets over the intermeeting period, financial conditions in U.S. markets continued to improve; bank credit quality and loan demand both increased. Mainly reflecting the increase in the prices of crude oil and gasoline earlier this year, inflation had picked up somewhat. However, longer-term inflation expectations remained stable.』
『In the economic forecast prepared for the April FOMC meeting, the staff revised up slightly its near-term projection for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, reflecting that the unemployment rate was a little lower, the level of overall payroll employment a bit higher, and consumer spending noticeably stronger than the staff had expected at the time of the previous forecast. However, the staff's medium-term projection for real GDP growth in the April forecast was little changed from the one presented in March. The staff continued to project that real GDP would accelerate gradually through 2014, supported by accommodative monetary policy, further improvements in credit availability, and rising consumer and business sentiment. Increases in economic activity were expected to be sufficient to decrease the wide margin of slack in the labor market slowly over the projection period, but the unemployment rate was anticipated to still be elevated at the end of 2014.』
『The staff's forecast for inflation over the projection period was just a bit above the forecast prepared for the March FOMC meeting, reflecting somewhat higher-than-expected data on core consumer prices and a slightly narrower margin of economic slack than in the March forecast. However, with the pass-through of the recent run-up in crude oil prices into consumer energy prices seen as nearly complete, oil prices expected to edge lower from current levels, substantial resource slack persisting over the projection period, and stable long-run inflation expectations, the staff continued to forecast that inflation would be subdued through 2014.』
で、委員の見通しに関しても実はそんなに変わってはいないですし、先行きの経済の足を引っ張る要因に関しても割と同じ話をしてたりするのだ。『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』から。
『Participants' assessments of the economic outlook were little changed, with the intermeeting information generally seen as suggesting that economic growth would remain moderate over coming quarters and then pick up gradually. Reflecting the moderate pace of economic growth, most anticipated a gradual decline in the unemployment rate.』
ということですな。
『The incoming information led some participants to become more confident about the durability of the recovery. However, others thought it was premature to infer a stronger underlying trend from the recent positive indicators, since those readings may partially reflect the effects of the mild winter weather or other temporary influences.』
つーことで先行きの回復の持続性に関しては意見は分かれるの巻。
『A number of factors continued to be seen as likely limiting the economic expansion to a moderate pace in the near term; these included slow growth in some foreign economies, prospective fiscal tightening in the United States, slow household income growth, and--notwithstanding some recent signs of improvement--ongoing weakness in the housing market. Participants continued to expect most of the factors restraining economic expansion to ease over time and so anticipated that the recovery would gradually gain strength.』
この辺が経済の足を引っ張る要因。
『The strains in global financial markets, though generally less pronounced than last fall, continued to pose a significant risk to the outlook, and the possibility of a sharp fiscal tightening in the United States was also considered a sizable risk.』
リスクに国際金融市場と米国のいわゆるフィスカルクリフを挙げています。
『Most participants anticipated that inflation would fall back from recent elevated levels as the effects of higher energy prices waned, and still expected that inflation subsequently would run at or below the 2 percent rate that the Committee judges to be most consistent with its statutory mandate. However, other participants saw upside risks to the inflation outlook given the recent pickup in inflation and the highly accommodative stance of monetary policy.』
『With respect to the statement to be released following the meeting, members agreed that only relatively small modifications to the first two paragraphs were needed to reflect the incoming economic data and the modest changes to the economic outlook. With the economic outlook over the medium term not greatly changed, almost all of the members again agreed to indicate that the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.』
『Most members continued to anticipate that the unemployment rate would still be well above their estimates of its longer-run level, and inflation would be at or below the Committee's longer-run objective, in late 2014.』
2014年の遅くまで失業率がFRBの中長期的な望ましい水準よりも高く、物価は政策目的のレベル程度か若干低い水準で推移するでしょう、という話ですが、ここの表現が前回は失業に関して「longer-term normal level」となっていたのが「their estimates of its longer-run level」となっているのがもしかしたらインプリケーションあるかもしれないなあとは思うのだがまだ考えはまとまらない。
『Some Committee members indicated that their policy judgment reflected in part their perception of downside risks to growth, especially since the Committee's ability to respond to weaker-than-expected economic conditions would be somewhat limited by the constraint imposed on monetary policy when the policy rate is near the zero lower bound.』
ほう。
『The need to compensate for a substantial period during which the policy rate was constrained by the zero bound was also cited by a few members as a possible reason to maintain a very low level of the federal funds rate for a longer period than would otherwise be the case.』
『The Committee also stated that it will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. Several members indicated that additional monetary policy accommodation could be necessary if the economic recovery lost momentum or the downside risks to the forecast became great enough.』
『The Committee also stated that it is prepared to adjust the size and composition of its securities holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. A couple of members indicated that the initiation of additional stimulus could become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below its mandate-consistent rate of 2 percent over the medium run.』(3月FOMC議事要旨から)
前回との違いで「A couple of」から増えたという話がニュースとなっていましたけれども、他に指摘すべきなのは、前回に関しては「景気回復がモメンタムを失う」の他の条件が「物価が2%の目標値を下回る見込みになった場合」だったのが、よりありそうなパターンの「ダウンサイドリスクが顕著に高まった場合」となって、そういう意味で追加刺激策へのハードルが下がった事ですが、あと気になるのですが政策インプリケーションがあるのか無いのかワカランチ会長なのは、前回が「the initiation of additional stimulus」という表現だったのが今回「additional monetary policy accommodation」ということで、単語が微妙に変わっている事なのですがこの意味は正直判らんです。
[外部リンク] Policy Action』の直前部分になるのですが、『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』の最終パラグラフであります。
『In their discussion of the economic outlook and policy, some participants noted the potential usefulness of simple monetary policy rules, of the type the Committee regularly reviews, as guides for monetary policy decisionmaking and for external communications about policy.』
『These participants suggested that because such rules give an indication of how policy should systematically respond to changes in economic conditions they might help clarify the relationship between appropriate monetary policy and the evolution of the economic outlook. While acknowledging that there could be differences across participants in the type of rules they might favor--for example, one participant expressed a preference for rules based on growth rates rather than output gaps because of measurement issues--a few participants indicated that the likely degree of commonality across participants was suggestive that this might be a promising approach to explore.』
『However, a few other participants were more skeptical. One thought that, while prescriptions from rules might provide useful benchmarks, applying the rules mechanically and with little thought about the embedded assumptions would be counterproductive. Another participant questioned the value of interest rate rules when the policy rate is constrained by the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and unconventional policy options are being used, but others indicated they believed the rules could be appropriately adjusted to account for these factors. Interest was expressed in examining the usefulness of simple policy rules in a more normal environment, as well as in the current environment in which the policy rate is at the zero lower bound and large-scale asset purchases and the maturity extension program have been implemented.』
うむ。
『Participants planned to discuss further, at a future meeting, the potential merits and drawbacks of using simple rules as guides to monetary policy decisionmaking and for communications.』
『GREG IP. Greg Ip of the Economist. First, assume that you are not constrained by the zero nominal bound right now. What would the federal funds rate be, even if it were a negative number? And do you believe that you are at an equivalent degree of monetary accommodation today using your unconventional tools? And also, a quick supplemental-could you put some numbers on what-on the meaning of “exceptionally low” federal funds rate? For example, would a 1 percent federal funds rate qualify as “exceptionally low” at the end of 2014?』
『CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, the exact reading for the federal funds rate today, in the absence of the zero lower bound, would depend a lot on which particular rule, what particular model that you use. I don’t want to cite a particular number, but it probably would be negative. And in that respect, we are trying to compensate for that by the use of nonstandard tools, including, as you know, almost a $3 trillion balance sheet.』
『We see monetary policy as being approximately in the right place at this point, based on the analysis that we’ve been doing in-of the economy and the outlook. That doesn’t mean we might not take further action; we are certainly prepared to take further action. But for the time being, it appears that we are more or less in the right place.』
『CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. “Exceptionally low”; you know, one of the reasons that language in the statement is sometimes a little vaguer than you would like is because we are trying to get a consensus among 17 or at least 10 people, and different members or participants in the FOMC might have somewhat different views of what “exceptionally low” means. Personally, I think it means something close to where we are-where we are now.』
『STEVE BECKNER. Steve Beckner of Market News International. Mr. Chairman, good to see you. There’s been some concern in markets about what will happen to bond yields at the expiration of Operation Twist on June 30th and some speculation on what the Fed might do-might need to do to keep downward pressure on yields. Is that a concern that you share? And do you and your colleagues feel the need not to disappoint these kinds of market expectations?』
『CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, to your last point, the purpose of monetary policy is to achieve our objectives of maximum employment and price stability, it’s not to disappoint or not disappoint investors. So we will take actions based on those economic objectives and not try to achieve certain market outcomes.』
えーっと、つまりこうですね。
>the purpose of monetary policy is not to disappoint or not disappoint investors. >the purpose of monetary policy is not to disappoint or not disappoint investors. >the purpose of monetary policy is not to disappoint or not disappoint investors.
『There’s some disagreement, I think, about exactly how balance sheet actions by the Federal Reserve affect Treasury yields and other asset prices. The view that we have generally taken at the Fed, in which I think-for which I think the evidence is pretty good, is that it’s the quantity of securities held by the Fed at a given time rather than the new purchases-the flow of new purchases-which is the primary determinant of interest rates. And if that theory is correct, then at such time that our purchases come to an end, there should be relatively minimal effects on interest rates at that time. And that, in fact, has been our-generally our experience in previous episodes where we have launched a program and then allowed it to come to a natural end.』
『Of course, we’ll continue to monitor the situation, and if we believe that financial conditions for whatever reason are inconsistent with our macroeconomic objectives, then we will act to fix that. But, again, our expectation is that, at whatever point that the purchases end, that financial markets being quite forward looking will have anticipated that, and that the effects ought to be moderate.』
[外部リンク] statement to the press conference (with Q&A) Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Vitor Constancio, Vice-President of the ECB, Barcelona, 3 May 2012
こちらの質疑応答では質問者の方が素敵な質問を飛ばしております(^^)。
『Question: Was there a discussion at all about moving the interest rate to the downside because there was speculation in the market, but you know, they are a little bit like children who need more candy. Was there a discussion at all about this?』
>they are a little bit like children who need more candy. >they are a little bit like children who need more candy. >they are a little bit like children who need more candy.
・・・・・・・・・ワロタ。
ちなみに今回は利下げの議論は出てませんというのが答えですが一応引用します。
『Draghi: No, we did not discuss any specific move on interest rates but we certainly discussed our general monetary policy stance, which we found accommodative in view of an economic outlook that is becoming more uncertain.』
『Question: You have been talking for the last days with Spanish and Catalan authorities. Here we have the impression maybe that after all the cuts, all the austerity, all the reforms, there is no reward from the markets or from the ECB. So these people say that the ECB now should give extra help to countries like Spain. What could you say to those people?』
ドラギ先生のお答え。
『Draghi: I would say that the government of Spain has made a very significant effort in policy reform. It is a series of reforms that - I don’t need to remind you - have been taken in a very short time. We have to acknowledge this significant effort. The measures that we have taken, namely the LTROs, have been successful in avoiding a major credit crunch. And of course we would need time to see how this money and when this money will propagate to the real economy, making credit conditions less difficult than they are today. But we can actually see quite clearly that we have avoided an otherwise major credit crunch, worse than what we are seeing today. So these measures, from this viewpoint, have been successful. I think that, and this is true for a variety of countries in the euro area, there has been significant progress on the fiscal front. I think that perseverance, given the amount of progress that has already been achieved, is very important in order to reap, in the end the gains. And together with this, structural reforms are also very important.』
[外部リンク] of England maintains Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme at £325 billion 10 May 2012
『The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee today voted to maintain the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £325 billion.』
『The Committee’s latest inflation and output projections will appear in the Inflation Report to be published at 10.30am on Wednesday 16 May. The minutes of the meeting will be published at 9.30am on Wednesday 23 May.』
