『PETER BARNES. Peter Barnes, Fox Business. Sir, you had talked about trying to get maybe a little help from some of the other branches of government, so that leads to the questions about the “fiscal cliff.” Have you seen any evidence that the lack of progress on resolving the fiscal-cliff issue is having an impact on the economy right now? Is it slowing economic growth right now, job creation as we saw last year during this very same debate? And if you’re not seeing it, and if you haven’t seen it yet, when could we-might we start to see it hit the economy and hurt the economy?』
フィスカルクリフに向けた進展が遅いですがその悪影響ってすでに出てますかってな話ですが。
『CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, I think it’s still a bit early, but as we move forward in the year, we do anticipate that the uncertainty associated with the so-called fiscal cliff will have some economic effects.』
『We heard anecdotes today in the meeting about firms that might be government contractors that were, you know, not sure about whether the contracts would still be in place come January and making employment decisions based on that.』
建築業者などには既に影響が出ているとな。
『More generally, financial markets don’t like uncertainty and, particularly, uncertainty of this magnitude, and that, I think, will be a negative. So that uncertainty is there, that’s going to be an issue.』
不確実性は良くないですし、その影響はネガティブでしょうということで、懸念している感ありありですな。
『I think most importantly, though, is that Congress get the policy right. I’ve talked about three elements for fiscal policy. The first is to do no harm as far as the recovery is concerned, to try to avoid a fiscal cliff that would significantly damage the recovery. But second, to maintain the effort to achieve a sustainable fiscal path over the longer term. And third, to use fiscal policy effectively-to have a better tax code, to make good use of government spending programs and make them efficient and effective, and so on. So I think if Congress does all those things, the ultimate benefits would be substantial.』
『TOSHIKI YAZAWA. Thank you, Chairman. I’m Toshiki Yazawa from Nikkei. I hear a lot of conversations on liquidity trap in U.S. That was a familiar concept in Japan after a bubble burst in the lost decades. Is U.S. economy in liquidity trap? And if that happens, how could economy escape from here? Thank you.』
『CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, the U.S. economy is in a situation where short-term interest rates are close to zero. And so what that means is the Federal Reserve cannot add monetary accommodation by cutting short-term interest rates, the usual approach.』
『It’s been one of the themes of my own work for a long time, including some of the work I did on the Bank of Japan, that central banks are not out of tools once the short-term interest rate hits zero.』
ふむふむ。
『There are additional steps that can be taken. And we have demonstrated through both communications techniques-guidance about future policy, which is something the Japanese have done as well, by the way-and through asset purchases, also something the Bank of Japan has done, that central banks do have some ability to provide financial accommodation to support their recovery even when short-term interest rates are close to zero.』
『That being said, as I mentioned to Mr. Ip, these nonstandard policies are less well understood, and they do have some costs and risks. But I do think that, at the same time, that they can be effective in helping the economy.』
Mr. Ipってのは昨日引用した質疑でして、逆さ絵おじさんに麿が憑依した記念すべき(??)質疑応答での話でして、つまりここでも麿モードになっているのが中々アレです。
[外部リンク] APPELBAUM. Binya Appelbaum, New York Times. I’m looking at the projections you all released today that show that unemployment will be between 8 and 8.2 percent at the end of the year. You told Congress earlier this month that the defining factor in your decision about whether to do more would be whether unemployment was coming down. That’s barely a decrease. And I guess I’m struggling to understand why, in that context, you are not doing more now, particularly when you say that you can do more and that you would do more if it wasn’t happening.』
『CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, first of all, again, we are-we did take a substantive step today by extending the maturity extension program to the end of the year. Again, I think that’s a meaningful additional step.』
『CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. It depends on-each individual has their own path of optimal policy, so we’ll provide more information about that in the minutes. But-and again, we’re prepared to do more. We have to get, I think, further information about the state of the economy, about where things are going, about what’s happening in Europe.』
『I guess I would add to that, though, that, you know, each of these nonstandard programs does have various costs and risks associated with it with respect to market functioning, with respect to financial stability, with respect to the exit process, and so I don’t think they should be launched lightly.』
『I think there should be some conviction that they’re needed, but if we do come to that conviction, then we’ll take those additional steps.』
ということで、まあ追加緩和に関しては「より確信が必要」というお話でありました。
・企業金融オペみたいなのの検討とな
ちょっと飛んで18ページから。
『GREG ROBB. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Greg Robb, MarketWatch. I just wanted to get back to lending and credit. The U.K. has started a program where the Bank of England is going to make lending to banks only if they lend to households and companies. Is that something the Fed has under consideration? Would that be something you’d start here?』
『CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, we’re very interested in it, and we’re certainly going to follow it. The details are not yet available. And I think it should be noted that it’s not just a Bank of England program, but it’s joint with the British Treasury. So the question-one question might be, how much of a fiscal component is there? Is there some kind of fiscal subsidy being included there?』
ということで、単体では出来ない話なのですがネタとしては考えておりますがなという話。
『But we are looking for-as you know, throughout the crisis, we’ve looked for new programs, new ways to help the economy. And this will be a type of thing that will be on the list of programs that we look at.』
『GREG IP. Hi. Greg Ip of the Economist. You have an inflation target of 2 percent, but your projections show inflation centered below 2 percent over the medium term. I was wondering if you could explain why. And secondly, you said that the Fed is prepared to do more if necessary. Could you briefly comment on what sort of form additional action might take? And, specifically, what are the relative costs and benefits of doing more QE versus more maturity extension?』
『CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, the-in terms of the inflation forecasts, again, I think it should be said, as a preliminary point, that economic projections have a lot of uncertainty about them. We talk about that uncertainty in the survey of economic projections. So we shouldn’t take a false sense of precision from those numbers.』
物価についてはまあ不確実性なども考えつつこの数字ですが。
『That being said, there is an issue about whether or not there’s sufficient stimulus in the economy. As I mentioned earlier, one problem is that we are now at the zero bound, and that the types of unconventional programs that are available are-we know less about them, they have various costs and risks, and, for that reason, you may get a different amount of financial accommodation in this kind of regime than you would in one where short-term interest rates can be varied freely. So I think that’s really a critical issue.』
『Now, in terms of the costs, I would list, briefly, large asset purchases increase the size of our balance sheet and therefore ultimately will make exit a more extended process.』
バランス拡大しすぎると出口政策に時間が掛かるキタコレ。
『Large asset purchases-which means that the Fed owns a larger share of a particular type of asset-may have implications for market functioning, which in turn might affect the ability of the Fed to have stimulative effects on the economy.』
『There are some financial stability issues that we are monitoring and that have to be taken into account. So any kind of assessment of appropriate policy must look both at the outlook for the economy and for-and at the costs and risks associated with new measures, new steps that might be taken.』
第二の柱までキタコレという感じで、どう見ても白川方明アゲインです本当にありがとうございました。
『That being said, again, I think at this point, we still do have considerable scope to do more, and we are prepared to do more. We’ll continue to monitor the economy and see how things evolve. And if-again, we’re looking primarily at the labor market in this respect-if we’re not seeing a sustained improvement in the labor market, that would require additional action.』
で、必要ならば実施しますよ発言というのがここに来るのだ。
『In terms of balance sheet actions, we are unlikely to do more maturity extension for a while because we have taken that about as far as we can. So we would have to take other types of steps in order to add to the amount of stimulus in the economy.』
『Zach Goldfarb: Thank you. Mitt Romney recently said that QE2 had a relatively little impact on the economy. He said that was in part because of the President's policies, and he said that QE3 was unwarranted and could have negative effects. Do you agree that QE2 had little effect on the economy? Do you think the President's policies has had an effect on the effectiveness of monetary policy? And do you think it's appropriate for a presidential candidate to comment on the future path of monetary policy?』
最後の質問とかどう見ても地雷です本当にありがとうございましたという感じですが。
『Chairman Bernanke: Well, I just say first that we think that both of the asset purchase programs, so-called QE1 and QE2, did have significant effects on asset prices and financial conditions and although there were certain problems in transmission for example, the housing market has not been as responsive as it's been in some times in the past.』
『We do think that they were both effective in providing support for the economy and in particular, so-called QE2 ended what looked to be an incipient deflation problem when we first introduced it. So, I do think those have been effective and as I said to Mr. Hilsenrath, we think that these kinds of programs can still provide additional support. 』
またQE2はデフレーション入りのリスクを回避しましたというのはまあそうでしたねという所で。
『With respect to the rest of your questions, I just want to reiterate that the Federal Reserve is nonpartisan, we are very serious about taking our decisions based on purely economic grounds without political considerations, and we'll continue to do that.』
>we are very serious about taking our decisions based on purely economic grounds without political considerations
はあそうですかという感じもしますが、まあこれはこう答えるしかないですね。
・ポートフォリオリバランス効果への言及
とか何とか引用しているうちに8ページ目に突入しますが。
『Jim Puzzanghera: Thanks. Jim Puzzanghera with the LA Times. Long-term interest rates, mortgage rates are already at historic lows. How much more help can an extension of Operation Twist do and--to lower interest rates?』
『Chairman Bernanke: Well, the interest rates are quite low and they're being pushed down more by safe-haven flows and other factors.』
足元での金利低下には安全資産への逃避の動きや他のファクターもありますねと仰せ。
『That being said, I think we can lower interest rates more.』
逆さ絵おじさん「That being said」ってのが良く出てくるのですが、この会見読んでて1つ勉強になりました(→英語力がアレなのがばれますかそうですか)。
『But beyond that, Operation Twist and asset purchases work also through other channels.』
ほほう。で、その別の経路とは・・・・・
『In particular, by acquiring securities in the market and bringing them on to the Fed's balance sheet. We essentially induce investors to move into substantive securities. So for example, an investor who sells a Treasury security to the Fed may end up buying a corporate bond instead and so the effect will be to lower corporate bond rates and corporate spreads or a bank may, having sold its Treasury securities, may decide to make a loan instead. So, it's not just the effect on the long-term interest rate, but there's a broader set of effects that feed through other asset prices, other interest rates, other spreads, and provide a broader ease in financial conditions which is supportive to the economy.』
『Mark Felsenthal: Mark Felsenthal with Reuters. Mr. Chairman, many analysts have characterized today's step as somewhat modest. Your own outlook has a much lower GDP projection. The unemployment rate in your outlook is--shows possibly no improvement at all in the unemployment rate through the end of this year. The program itself is smaller and of shorter duration than the original Operation Twist. Given this weaker outlook, why such a modest program? And when you say you are prepared to take further action, which is a stronger characterization than in your last meeting, does that mean you are prepared to do a full-on new asset purchase program?』
『Chairman Bernanke: Well, there has been a great deal of economic news since our last meeting. The incoming data were somewhat disappointing, but not entirely clear how to read them. We had issues with weather and seasonal adjustments and other factors. Meanwhile, Europe has had additional problems. We've seen some of those effects in financial markets. So, I think, there is some case to be made for making some additional judgments about where the economy is going.』
『That being said, the step we took, the extension of the Maturity Extension Program, I think is a substantive step and it will provide some additional support. And yes, additional asset purchases would be among the things that we would certainly consider if we need to take additional measures to strengthen the economy.』
『Jon Hilsenrath: Jon Hilsenrath from the Wall Street Journal. Mr.Chairman, I'd like to ask you to respond to a different set of criticisms. This criticism which you hear from Capitol Hill and Wall Street and different places is that the Fed has already pushed interest rates to an extraordinarily low level, a historically low level and that there isn't anything more that the Fed can do to help the recovery.』
キタコレ。
『That criticism is that the Fed at this point should stand down and let Congress or the White House attend to the economy's ailments or let market forces attend to the economy's ailments. What do you think of those arguments and how would you respond to them?』
でまあその質問に対してですが。
『Chairman Bernanke: Well, as I've said many times, monetary policy is not a panacea.』
金融政策は万能薬じゃない発言キタコレ。
『Monetary policy by itself is not going to solve our economic problems. We welcome help and support from any other part of the government, from other economic policy makers.』
『I wouldn't accept the proposition, though, that the Fed has no more ammunition. I do think that our tools, while they are nonstandard, still can create more accommodative financial conditions, can still provide support for the economy, can still help us return to a more normal economic situation.』
FEDが弾切れという指摘には全力で否定する所が逆さ絵クオリティ。
『That being said again, any other support that is forthcoming, any other economic policies that are undertaken that are helpful in terms of making our economy stronger are welcome. But I do think that monetary policy still does have some capacity to strengthen the economy by easing financial conditions.』
『Steve Liesman: Steve Liesman, CNBC. Mr. Chairman, looking back on the last four years of Fed policy, I think it's probably fair to say it has been bold and yet at the same time halting. You did QE1 and then you stopped and you did QE2. You did Operation Twist and you told us it was going to end in June. Now you've extended it. How would you respond if several years from now, a young MIT Graduate student came forward and said, "You know what the problem with that policy was during this period is it was too incremental and that the reason why the economy underperformed was because of that incrementalism." And what do you think the dangers are right now that today's action is also being too incremental?』
『Chairman Bernanke: Well, of course, you know, we cut the federal funds rate in a continuous fashion until December of 2008. And since then, we've been operating with nonstandard monetary tools including asset purchases and extension of maturities. By their nature, these tend to be lumpy. We haven't done them in a continuous way.』
『But our view of the effects of these programs on the economy is that the total stock of outstanding securities in our portfolio is what determines the level of accommodation that the economy is receiving. So in that respect, it wouldn't be really a start and stop rather, whenever we have stopped purchasing the level of accommodation that was already in the system remains there until conditions warrant further action.』
『And we've had to add additional accommodation going forward as we have seen in fact that the headwinds have kept the recovery from being as strong as we would like. But again, by the nature of these unconventional tools, they are--tend to be more discreet in their size but they continue to have accommodative effects even after the pattern of purchases has ended.』
でまあ同じ人が質問しているのでそこまで引用して置くだよ。
『Steve Liesman: Don't you worry about incrementalism now?』
『Chairman Bernanke: Well, we've taken a step today which is a substantive step which will provide additional accommodation for the economy. And moreover, we have stated that we're prepared to take further steps if necessary to promote sustainable growth and recovery in the labor market. So, we are prepared to do what is necessary. We are prepared to provide support for the economy.』
適格担保の範囲を拡大しています。 [外部リンク] June 2012 - ECB takes further measures to increase collateral availability for counterparties
まあ大体こんな感じ。
『On 20 June 2012 the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided on additional measures to improve the access of the banking sector to Eurosystem operations in order to further support the provision of credit to households and non-financial corporations.
The Governing Council has reduced the rating threshold and amended the eligibility requirements for certain asset-backed securities (ABSs). It has thus broadened the scope of the measures to increase collateral availability which were introduced on 8 December 2011 and which remain applicable.』
『1.Auto loan, leasing and consumer finance ABSs and ABSs backed by commercial mortgages (CMBSs) which have a second-best rating of at least “single A” in the Eurosystem’s harmonised credit scale, at issuance and at all times subsequently. These ABSs will be subject to a valuation haircut of 16%.
2.Residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBSs), securities backed by loans to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), auto loan, leasing and consumer finance ABSs and CMBSs which have a second-best rating of at least “triple B” in the Eurosystem’s harmonised credit scale, at issuance and at all times subsequently. RMBSs, securities backed by loans to SMEs, and auto loan, leasing and consumer finance ABSs would be subject to a valuation haircut of 26%, while CMBSs would be subject to a valuation haircut of 32%.』
でまあ状況的には確かに信用緩和の方が適切ですなあという所でこれはこれでほほうという感じなのですが、同時に今回以外に既に実施した事などをリストにして「こんなにやってますお!」という主張をしているのが少々上げ底風味である。 [外部リンク] taken by the Governing Council of the ECB (in addition to decisions setting interest rates) June 2012
『31 Finally, the Committee discussed further asset purchases. The Committee agreed that asset purchases remained an effective tool for lowering a range of market interest rates, supporting asset prices and so nominal demand. Nevertheless, a significant current impediment to the economic recovery in the United Kingdom lay in the interaction between the financial threats emanating from the euro area, their implications for bank funding costs, and consequently for lending to businesses and households.』
『This might have contributed to the rise in interest rate spreads on mortgages and loans to small and medium-sized businesses in recent months, despite the extension of the asset purchase programme in February. Other complementary policy measures that the authorities might take could be better suited to mitigating these problems than asset purchases on their own, and some members expressed a wish for the MPC to consider additional policy tools.』
『In this context, the Governor informed the Committee that initial discussions were underway with the Treasury on possible measures to ease banks’ funding costs and enhance their ability to lend.』
つーことでして月曜にはキング総裁講演ネタを投下しないといけませんね。
『32 While acknowledging that further stimulus was likely to become warranted at some point, most members noted that there were several key events occurring over the coming weeks that could have a material bearing on the situation in the euro area and that there was merit in waiting to see how matters evolved there before the MPC reached a conclusion on whether to add any further monetary stimulus.』
このMPCは7月6、7日に行われたものですので、ギリシャ総選挙やら何やらの結果が出る前で、とりあえずはwait and seeの方がメリットあるじゃろという見解が出ている訳ですな。
『That would also allow time for an assessment of any policy recommendations made by the FPC and for the possibility of other policy tools, designed to ease bank funding costs, to be explored.』
『In any event, the reduction in market interest rates that had occurred over the month had already provided some additional monetary stimulus. And some of these members remained concerned about the possible persistence of inflation at above-target rates.』
とは言え物価が高止まりという問題も指摘されているとかいろいろと大変でございます。
『33 Some other members judged that there was already a sufficiently compelling case for providing a further monetary stimulus in the form of some additional asset purchases immediately.』
という事で資産買入の拡大を提案する人も居た訳ですが・・・・・・・・
『34 The Governor invited the Committee to vote on the propositions that:
Bank Rate should be maintained at 0.5%;
The Bank of England should maintain the stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £325 billion.
Regarding Bank Rate, the Committee voted unanimously in favour of the proposition.』
採決は「現状維持」についてで、まあ政策金利0.5%は良いとしまして・・・・・・・
『Regarding the stock of asset purchases, five members of the Committee (Charles Bean, Paul Tucker, Ben Broadbent, Spencer Dale and Martin Weale) voted in favour of the proposition. Four members of the Committee voted against the proposition. The Governor, David Miles and Adam Posen preferred to increase the size of the asset purchase programme by £50 billion to a total of £375 billion. Paul Fisher preferred to increase the size of the asset purchase programme by £25 billion to a total of £350 billion.』
資産買入に関しては買入拡大派が4名で現状維持派が5名という大変に素敵な結果になっているのですが、何がお洒落って「voted against the proposition」の次に燦然と輝く「The Governor」の文字でありまして、総裁の見解も貫録の否決(しかも総裁と副総裁2名(=マネタリーポリシーウィングの副総裁がCharles Beanで、プルーデンスウィングの副総裁がPaul Tucker)の見解が違う・・・)と言うのが英国クオリティで実に素晴らしいと思う次第で、先般のマンションハウスでのキング総裁の講演が全力で景気に弱気で追加金融緩和をやるべしという全力の講演に繋がったのですねとまああたくしだけ一人合点しておりますが、キング総裁講演については月曜にでも(週末はバーナンキの記者会見ネタも追加されるものと思われる(あたくしは英語力がアレなのでテキスト起こしした物が無いとあばばばばーなのです)ので気が向いたら土日に更新するかもしれないが期待しないでちょ)投入したいと存じます。
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed continuation of the maturity extension program.』(今回)
前回の反対理由はガイダンス文言に反対でしたが、今回はオペレーションツイスト延長に反対と。
○オペレーションツイスト延長の概要についてはこちら
最初にFRBのトップを見たらここの「Maturity Extension Program and Reinvestment Policy」の日付が6月20日になっていたのでステートメントを見る前に「ああ延長来たわ」と思ったのはあたくしでございます(^^)。 [外部リンク] the maturity extension program, the Federal Reserve intends to sell or redeem a total of $667 billion of shorter-term Treasury securities by the end of 2012 and use the proceeds to buy longer-term Treasury securities.』
『This will extend the average maturity of the securities in the Federal Reserve’s portfolio.』
まあそうですな。
『By reducing the supply of longer-term Treasury securities in the market, this action should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, including rates on financial assets that investors consider to be close substitutes for longer-term Treasury securities. The reduction in longer-term interest rates, in turn, will contribute to a broad easing in financial market conditions that will provide additional stimulus to support the economic recovery. 』
FAQはスルーしましてFederal Reserve Bank of New York operating statementってのを。
[外部リンク] Regarding Continuation of the Maturity Extension Program June 20, 2012
どの年限にどの配分をするのかという話とかございます。
『Purchases of Treasury securities for the maturity extension program will be distributed across five sectors using the same approximate weights that have been used in the purchases to date:』
『Nominal Coupon Securities by Remaining Maturity* *The on-the-run 10-year note will be considered part of the 8-to 10-year sector. 6-8 Years :32% 8-10 Years :32% 10-20 Years :4% 20-30 Years :29%
TIPS** **TIPS weights are based on unadjusted par amounts. 6-30 Years :3%』(ここは本当は表形式ですがテキストに落とす都合上これで勘弁)
とのこと。
『A combination of sales and redemptions of Treasury securities will be conducted to match the amount of purchases over the program. Sales of Treasury securities will take place in securities maturing between January 2013 and January 2016.』
売却するのは2013年1月償還物から2016年1月償還物。
『Securities maturing in the second half of 2012 will be redeemed-that is, allowed to mature without reinvestment-since redeeming maturing Treasury securities has a nearly identical effect on the portfolio as selling securities that are approaching maturity.』
Change in real GDP:2012年、2013年の見通しが前回対比で下がっていて2014年は割と変わらない Unemployment rate:全体的にやや上がっている(ので良くない方向) PCE inflation:全体的にやや下がっていて、Central tendencyの下限とRangeの下限が同じになっている
[外部リンク] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately this year. 』(今回)
『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. 』(前回)
と、現状認識の基調判断は同じですが・・・・・・
『However, growth in employment has slowed in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains elevated.』(今回) 『Labor market conditions have improved in recent months; the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated.』(前回)
労働市場の認識に関して今回は改善がスローであるとしております。
『Business fixed investment has continued to advance. Household spending appears to be rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year.』(今回)
『Household spending and business fixed investment have continued to advance.』(前回)
『Despite some signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed.』(今回) 『Despite some signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed.』(前回)
住宅セクターに関する判断は同一文言。
『Inflation has declined, mainly reflecting lower prices of crude oil and gasoline, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.』(今回)
『Inflation has picked up somewhat, mainly reflecting higher prices of crude oil and gasoline. However, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.』(前回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually.』(今回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually.』(前回)
『Consequently, the Committee anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline only slowly toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate.』(今回)
『Consequently, the Committee anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline gradually toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate.』(前回)
失業の改善について、「will decline gradually」だったのが「will decline only slowly」となっていて見通しが下がるという残念な結果ですが、これまたSEPにその辺反映されていますです、はい。
『Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook.』(今回) 『Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook.』(前回)
『The Committee anticipates that inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.』(今回)
『The increase in oil and gasoline prices earlier this year is expected to affect inflation only temporarily, and the Committee anticipates that subsequently inflation will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.』(前回)
『To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.』(今回)
このパラグラフは前回と完全一致です。
・第4パラグラフ:バランスシート政策など
『The Committee also decided to continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. Specifically, the Committee intends to purchase Treasury securities with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years at the current pace and to sell or redeem an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of approximately 3 years or less.』(今回)
『The Committee also decided to continue its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in September.』(今回)
まあここの辺りは前回と比較すりゃ良いってもんでも無いですが(^^)、まあ要するにいわゆるオペレーションツイストの半年延長なのですが、最初この文言見てて「sell or redeem」の償還ってナンジャラホイと思ったのですが、これは(これまた詳しくはこの後に書きますが)オペの概要みたら判るのですけど、FEDの現在の手持ちの中で年内に償還が来る債券があるのでそれの再投資もオペレーションツイストに含めるという話のようですが・・・・・
『This continuation of the maturity extension program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.』(今回)
『The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities.』(今回)
『The Committee is maintaining its existing policies of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.』(前回)
『The Committee is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.』(今回)
『The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.』(前回)
今後に関する文言については「is prepared to take further action」という表現にして、まあサービス成分を高めましたねという所ですな、うんうん。
で、その流動性供給策として昨年12月に枠組みだけ作ってある「Extended Collateral Term Repo Facility」が本日発動予定。
[外部リンク] Release - Auctions to be held under the Extended Collateral Term Repo Facility
『In his Mansion House speech last night, Sir Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, announced that in the current turbulent period, the Bank of England will be commencing operations under the Extended Collateral Term Repo (ECTR) Facility. Activation of this Facility, introduced in December 2011, is intended to mitigate prospective risks to financial stability arising from a market-wide shortage of sterling liquidity by lending to the banking system against the widest range of collateral.』
『The Bank intends to hold an ECTR auction at least monthly until further notice. The first auction under the ECTR Facility will be held on 20 June 2012. In its ECTR auctions, the Bank will offer sterling liquidity with a term of 6 months against collateral pre-positioned for use in the Bank’s Discount Window Facility (DWF). The minimum bid rate in these auctions will be a spread to Bank Rate of 25 basis points. All firms registered for access to the Bank’s DWF are eligible for ECTR auctions. The size of ECTR auctions will be announced the day prior to each operation and will be subject to a minimum of £5 billion.』
『The ECTR Facility is part of the Bank’s permanent framework of operations, the Sterling Monetary Framework, and as such is incorporated in the “Red Book”. In conjunction with the Indexed Long-Term Repo (ILTR) operations, and the permanent availability of the Discount Window Facility (DWF) for bilateral transactions, the ECTR Facility enables the Bank to ensure that the banking sector has sufficient access to sterling liquidity to mitigate risks arising from unexpected shocks.』
ということで、今後もこのオペは制度化という話ですかな。
『Further operational details are available in the accompanying Market Notice. 』
詳しい事務手順はこちら。 [外部リンク] Notice 15 June 2012 Sterling Monetary Framework: Extended Collateral Term Repo Facility
[外部リンク] Risks, and Monetary Policy Dennis P. Lockhart President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
『Key points
・Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the U.S. economy remains in recovery, which he expects to continue. As recent disappointing employment numbers illustrate, however, the economy is working against some strong headwinds.
・Lockhart said these headwinds include continued deleveraging by the household and financial sectors, a weak housing market, a contracting government sector, and an "uncertainty drag" on confidence and economic activity.
・In addition to headwinds, Lockhart described four risks in his outlook: the behavior of home prices, effect of pending sharp federal fiscal adjustment, financial instability along with recession in Europe, and slowdown in emerging market economies.
・Lockhart views today's highly accommodative stance of monetary policy as being appropriate for the outlook he envisions.
・His views about further policy measures consider two possibilities. First, if his baseline scenario of continued, though modest, growth becomes unrealistic, further monetary actions to support the recovery will need to be considered. Second, he believes the FOMC must maintain a state of readiness to respond to financial or economic instability.』
でまあこちらでは「欧州に関しては前回のFOMCよりも現状はリスクが高まっている」と思いっきり説明していて、これは6日の話なのでギリシャ選挙の結果などは反映していませんけれども、まあ選挙結果見て急に認識が強まるという程でも無いでしょうというのは、講演本文の中で『First, the euro area as a whole is in or near recession, as I mentioned earlier. 』とか思いっきり言及してますのでまあそう変わらんでしょうな。
それから住宅市場とか、フィスカルクリフとかの言及もしていますし、「slowdown in emerging market economies」と思いっきり言及していて、これまた講演本文では『Another connected global risk is the apparent slowdown occurring in a number of large emerging economies-notably in the economies of China, India, and Brazil. 』と国名も挙げて指摘しているという所で、下振れ警戒感を強く印象付ける講演になっております。
[外部リンク] Bank recognizes that Japan's economy faces the critical challenge of overcoming deflation and returning to a sustainable growth path with price stability. This challenge will be met through efforts by a wide range of economic agents to strengthen the economy's growth potential and support from the financial side. Based on this recognition, the Bank has been providing support to strengthen the foundations for economic growth and pursuing powerful monetary easing. The Bank continues to conduct monetary policy in an appropriate manner. The Bank will also do its utmost to ensure the stability of Japan's financial system, while giving particular attention to developments in global financial markets.』(今回)
『The Bank recognizes that Japan's economy faces the critical challenge of overcoming deflation and returning to a sustainable growth path with price stability. This challenge will be met through efforts to strengthen the economy's growth potential and support from the financial side. The Bank continues to conduct policy in an appropriate manner.』(前回)
『The Bank recognizes that Japan's economy faces the critical challenge of overcoming deflation and returning to a sustainable growth path with price stability. The goal of overcoming deflation will be achieved both through efforts to strengthen the economy's growth potential and support from the financial side. With this in mind, the Bank will pursue powerful monetary easing, and will support private financial institutions in their efforts to strengthen the foundations for Japan's economic growth via the fund-provisioning measure to support strengthening the foundations for economic growth. At today's meeting, as shown in the Attachment, the Bank established detailed rules for a new U.S. dollar lending arrangement equivalent to 1 trillion yen, of which a preliminary outline was released at the previous meeting in March.』(4月10日)
即ちですな、4月10日には「the Bank will pursue powerful monetary easing」と「今後も強力な緩和をpurse(追及とか遂行とか)するお」と仰せなのですが、今回は「the Bank has been providing support to strengthen the foundations for economic growth and pursuing powerful monetary easing」と現在完了形になっていて、先行きの所が前回の表現と同じく「The Bank continues to conduct monetary policy in an appropriate manner」となっておりまして、「これまでは強力な緩和を実行しておりましたが、先行きに関しては先月申し上げましたように適切に行いますとしか申し上げようがございませんなあ」という風になっておられるのが何ともアレ。
基本的に声明文に関しては日本語が正本で英文はサービスで付けているという建付けになっている筈でございますので(で良いんですよね?>中の人)英文はあくまでもおまけではあるのですが、ここの表現を見ますと声明文を見た海外のクレクレの皆様におかれましては「表現が変わっていない」という風に思うような気がするのですが、まあこれはどこからどう見てもそういう意図があって「in an appropriate manner」を残しているのでしょうからして、つまりは海外のクレクレに向けては「クレクレうるせえんじゃヴォケ」とまあそういう意思表示である、と斯様思うのでございました。
[外部リンク] given by Sir Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England
[外部リンク] Release - Auctions to be held under the Extended Collateral Term Repo Facility
・電波浴シリーズ
さっき読者様から電波浴のご案内があったのですが時間が無いので今日はパス(^^)。 [外部リンク] Risks, and Monetary Policy Dennis P. Lockhart President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
The Broward Workshop Fort Lauderdale, Fla. June 6, 2012
先日金融政策スタンスに関する部分を引用したクリーブランド連銀ピアナルト総裁の講演@5月31日より [外部リンク] Policy, Economics and the Recovery
『Economic Impacts of the Recession: Structural or Cyclical』の所をちょっと引用。
『Many of you are trained economists and are very familiar with the concept of dividing economic activity into structural and cyclical components. Broadly defined, cyclical impacts of a recession will be recovered as the economy works through the business cycle and as economic conditions improve. Such impacts rise and fall, but they do not persist. In contrast, impacts that persist even after the economy has been expanding for years are considered structural.』
構造要因と循環要因に分けるという話は良く行われおりまっせと。
『This distinction is often applied to unemployment rates, but it can also be applied to spending on plants and equipment. The underlying question in either case is, How much of the reduced demand for labor and capital will persist even when the U.S. economy has fully recovered from the recession?』
『The U.S. construction sector was at the bull's-eye of the recession. The impact on construction workers was immense and the thinking was that, even after the economy recovered, we would need far fewer construction workers than before the steep downturn. Unemployed construction workers are often cited as examples of structural unemployment because of a belief that many of the pre-recession construction jobs were never coming back. Given that construction workers typically have relatively low levels of formal education and relatively high levels of specialized skills that they acquire on the job, some believed their prospects for employment in other sectors were limited.』
『The recession increased the number of unemployed workers in the construction sector by 1.1 million, raising the unemployment rate of construction workers to a peak of roughly 20 percent. Nonetheless, recent employment statistics indicate that the number of unemployed construction workers is now just 300,000 higher than it was in 2007, even as the construction sector has continued to shrink since the end of the recession. Indeed, the number of unemployed workers from construction has declined more rapidly than the total number of unemployed workers in the United States.』
『Another sector of the economy often cited for evidence of structural unemployment is manufacturing.』
ほほう。
『Today, manufacturing requires more specialized skills than ever, and some manufacturing activities have moved to other parts of the world. The recession increased the numbers of unemployed workers in the manufacturing sector by 1.2 million people. Here again, unemployment figures in manufacturing have declined more rapidly than economy-wide numbers. The number of unemployed manufacturing workers is now just 300,000 higher than it was in 2007.』
まあ建設セクターと同じような話ですな。
『The employment data for these two large sectors of the economy in part reflects the flexibility of U.S. workers to move out of one sector into another and demonstrates that there has been less structural unemployment than many had thought.』
『A major part of the ongoing unemployment problem today is the elevated numbers of young unemployed people.』
若年層の失業が高い件について。
『The number of unemployed people in the early-career ages of 20 to 34 rose by 2.6 million in the recession. The recovery has been less effective at shrinking this pool of unemployed workers, with 1.8 million young and recently trained workers still looking for work. While it is hard to categorically rule out structural unemployment, people in this age group are typically very flexible about which sector or region they work. In addition, this generation is more educated than prior generations, and that education should be more relevant to current employment opportunities. The employment weakness in this age group points more to a broad-based lack of demand for labor - that is, a cyclical shortfall in employment.』
『What is extraordinary about today's economy is the number of unemployed people compared to the number of job openings. Before the recession, there was a little over one job seeker for every open position. Today, despite progress, there are about three people looking for work for every job opening. The only long-run solution to the unemployment problem is to increase the number of job openings through more growth in overall economic activity.』
『Together, these facts make a lot of today's unemployment look more cyclical than structural to me, although persistent cyclical unemployment runs the risk of translating into structural unemployment through the loss of skills. I encourage you to read our latest Annual Report, just published, for a thorough discussion of the employment side of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.』
『Over the past ten minutes or so, I have talked about the recent adverse changes in U.S. labor market performance. I have discussed two sharply different possible ways to view those changes: first, that they are largely reversible under appropriate monetary policy and, second, that they are likely to be highly persistent. These two possibilities suggest that the FOMC is confronted with an unusually high degree of uncertainty about the level of “maximum employment” it can achieve.』
『This uncertainty translates directly into a corresponding uncertainty about the appropriate approach to policy. In particular, policymakers who see the deterioration in labor market performance as reversible using monetary policy will typically favor more accommodative policy than those who view the deterioration as more protracted.』
『Fortunately, we can use other sources of information to reduce the level of uncertainty about the maximum level of employment achievable through monetary policy.』
『“Maximum employment” for monetary policy is widely interpreted as the level of employment that is sustainable through monetary policy actions without an acceleration in inflation.』
『 While we cannot directly observe “maximum employment,” we do observe inflation, and its behavior is a useful signal of how close we are to the maximum level of employment achievable by the FOMC.』
どう見てもインフレ重視派です本当にありがとうございました。
『So, what has been happening with inflation? Inflation was distinctly higher in 2011 than in 2010. Even core measures of inflation, which strip out energy goods and services, and food, went up notably.』
と、インフレが昨年上昇して今年は下がったけどそんなにサガランチ会長であると仰せ。
『I see these changes as a signal that our country’s current labor market performance is closer to “maximum employment,” given the tools available to the FOMC, than the post-World War II U.S. data alone would suggest.』
んじゃあそんなにNAIRUの水準がドカンと変わるものなのかという論点なのですが、これは今日は長くなるのでスルーしますが、上記の講演の中盤に『The Swedish experience』というのがありまして90年代初頭の通貨危機だの金融システム不安を通過したスウェーデンの失業率が危機前の水準から大きく上昇し、水準そのものが変化している(けど同国の経済は最近まで良いパフォーマンスを示していた)というような話をしているのでそれを読んでくらはい(手抜き)。
『As I’ve argued in the past, appropriate monetary policy should be responsive to such signals.』
ということですので、どう見ても金融緩和のお代わりは不要という結論。
『It is worth reiterating a point that I made earlier. “Maximum employment” for monetary policy is not the same as “maximum employment” for all policymakers.』
『Congress and the president can choose to provide direct subsidies to employers for hiring. Such subsidies will increase the federal deficit, but they do have the power to increase “maximum employment” for the FOMC.』
『At the Fed, we are now producing and publicly disclosing the estimates of real GDP growth, unemployment, and PCE[4] inflation rates produced by the FOMC participants in a Summary of Economic Projections. The central tendency of the FOMC participants’ estimated forecasts, and my own current forecast, are provided in Figure 5.』
『You can see that my own forecasts are a little more pessimistic than the central tendency of the participants at the April FOMC meeting. I am expecting growth of only 2.3 percent for the full year, I’m sorry to say; and unfortunately no improvement in the current U.S. unemployment rate of 8.1 percent. As you can see, I also expect both total PCE inflation and core PCE inflation to be below 2 percent for 2012. My forecast of relative weakness in the economy reflects concern that the uncertainty about both Europe and the U.S. federal “fiscal cliff” will restrain spending by households and businesses - but it also assumes that Europe and our own fiscal situation achieve a “muddling through.”』
『I would, however, highlight the uncertainty and downside risks to my forecast. One downside risk is that European problems could become a much greater restraint on growth this year. Another downside risk is that Middle East problems could cause an oil supply shock that negatively affects economic growth. And another is that much greater fiscal austerity could result from a potential failure to reach budget agreements.』
その上ダウンサイドリスクに欧州とフィスカルクリフと原油価格の上昇リスクを挙げると。
『Given my expectations of only modest growth, no improvement in the unemployment rate, an inflation forecast below 2 percent, and significant downside risks to the forecast, I believe monetary policy should remain accommodative at this time and indeed that we should be looking for ways that monetary policy can foster more rapid growth, to bring down the unemployment rate more quickly. I believe further monetary policy accommodation is both appropriate and necessary.』
そらまあ追加緩和が必要となるって話です罠。
『The U.S., like many other countries, needs to facilitate a more rapid recovery, and monetary policy is one important tool with the potential still for encouraging faster growth.』
ピアナルト総裁のこの講演でも労働市場に関する考察があります。『Economic Impacts of the Recession: Structural or Cyclical』って所なのですが、これまた上記2名と同様に労働市場の問題は主に循環的要因によるものが強いという認識になっていまして、量的にこの講演が一番短くて説明がシンプルなので、とりあえず立論の背景を確認するという意味ではこちらの講演がお勧めであります。
一方で追加緩和に関してどうなのよという話になると、ピアナルト総裁の経済見通し&金融政策の見立てが『U.S. Monetary Policy: Responsive and Measured』という所で説明されているのですが・・・・・・
『Currently, I am projecting the economy to grow at a moderate rate, slightly above 2-1/2 percent this year and around 3 percent in 2013 and 2014. At this pace of growth, I expect that it could take as long as four to five years for the unemployment rate to fall to the 6 percent rate I judge to be consistent with maximum employment. I also project inflation to run very close to the Federal Reserve's longer-run objective of 2 percent as measured by the PCE price index through 2014.』
『My inflation outlook, although it is close to the 2 percent objective, is based on an economy that is working through a significant amount of cyclical weakness over the projection horizon. My outlook for both economic activity and inflation relies on monetary policy remaining accommodative. Therefore, I have voted in favor of the FOMC's policy statements and actions, including the statement that economic conditions "are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014."』
『Nonetheless, my current assessment is that the real economy continues to show considerable cyclical weakness. This assessment, along with my outlook for moderate growth and subdued inflation, calls for today's highly accommodative monetary policy.』
『Indeed, the simulations I described above did not take into account this new information. In our policy deliberations at the upcoming FOMC meeting we will assess the effects of these developments on the economic forecast. If the Committee were to judge that the recovery is unlikely to proceed at a satisfactory pace (for example, that the forecast entails little or no improvement in the labor market over the next few years), or that the downside risks to the outlook had become sufficiently great, or that inflation appeared to be in danger of declining notably below its 2 percent objective, I am convinced that scope remains for the FOMC to provide further policy accommodation either through its forward guidance or through additional balance-sheet actions.』
『In taking these decisions, however, we would need to balance two considerations. 』
ほう。
『On the one hand, our unconventional tools have some limitations and costs.』
プロコンを検討とな。、
『For example, the effects of forward guidance are likely to be weaker the longer the horizon of the guidance, implying that it may be difficult to provide much more stimulus through this channel.』
『As for our balance sheet operations, although we have now acquired some experience with this tool, there is still considerable uncertainty about its likely economic effects. Moreover, some have expressed concern that a substantial further expansion of the balance sheet could interfere with the Fed's ability to execute a smooth exit from its accommodative policies at the appropriate time. I disagree with this view: The FOMC has tested a variety of tools to ensure that we will be able to raise short-term interest rates when needed while gradually returning the portfolio to a more normal size and composition.』
『But even if unjustified, such concerns could in theory reduce confidence in the Federal Reserve and so lead to an undesired increase in inflation expectations.』
『On the other hand, risk management considerations arising from today's unusual circumstances strengthen the case for additional accommodation beyond that called for by simple policy rules and optimal control under the modal outlook.』
『In particular, as I have noted, there are a number of significant downside risks to the economic outlook, and hence it may well be appropriate to insure against adverse shocks that could push the economy into territory where a self-reinforcing downward spiral of economic weakness would be difficult to arrest.』
