[外部リンク] Intelligence, Market Information and Statistics in Central Banking Keynote Speech to the 6th Irving Fisher Committee Conference Basel, Switzerland, August 29, 2012
21日にはRBAとBISの共同主催コンファランスで『How to detect and respond to property bubbles: Challenges for policy-makers』というのをやり、日本に戻ってから今度は27日にトルコ中銀のセミナーで『Demographic Transition, Impact of ICT, and Globalization: A Long View of the Post-Crisis World』という講演をやって、まあさすがに今回は中1日ですからトルコからバーゼルに飛んでまた講演という世界行脚モード。
『Before interest on reserves, the opportunity cost for holding noninterest-bearing bank reserves was the nominal short-term interest rate, such as the federal funds rate.』
付利が無ければ準備預金の保有コストはFF金利になりますわな。
『Demand for reserves is downward sloping. That is, when the federal funds rate is low, the quantity of reserves banks want to hold increases. Conventional monetary policy works by adjusting the amount of reserves so that the federal funds rate equals a target level at which supply and demand for reserves are in equilibrium. It is implemented by trading noninterest-bearing reserves for interest-bearing securities, typically short-term Treasury bills.』
『Normally, banks have a strong incentive to put reserves to work by lending them out. If a bank were suddenly to find itself with a million dollars in excess reserves in its account, it would quickly try to find a creditworthy borrower and earn a return. If the banking system as a whole found itself with excess reserves, then the system would increase the availability of credit in the economy, drive private-sector borrowing rates lower, and spur economic activity. Precisely this reasoning lies behind the classical monetary theories of multiple deposit creation and the money multiplier, which hold that an increase in the monetary base should lead to a proportional rise in the money stock.』
『Moreover, if the economy were operating at its potential, then if the banking system held excess reserves, too much “money” would chase too few goods, leading to higher inflation. Friedman’s maxim would be confirmed. Here’s the conundrum then: How could the Fed have tripled the monetary base since 2008 without the money stock ballooning, triggering big jumps in spending and inflation? What’s wrong with our tried-and-true theory?』
でもFEDはマネタリーベースを3倍にしたのにインフレって加速しませんでしたよねと。
『A critical explanation is that banks would rather hold reserves safely at the Fed instead of lending them out in a struggling economy loaded with risk. The opportunity cost of holding reserves is low, while the risks in lending or investing in other assets seem high. Thus, at near-zero rates, demand for reserves can be extremely elastic. The same logic holds for households and businesses. Given the weak economy and heightened uncertainty, they are hoarding cash instead of spending it. In a nutshell, the money multiplier has broken down (see a discussion in Williams 2011a).』
『The most important reason has been a deliberate move to support financial markets and stimulate the economy. By mid-December 2008, the Fed had lowered the federal funds rate essentially to zero. Yet the economy was still contracting very rapidly. Standard rules of thumb and a range of model simulations recommended setting the federal funds rate below zero starting in late 2008 or early 2009, something that was impossible to do (see Chung et al. 2011 and Rudebusch 2010).』
『Instead, the Fed provided additional stimulus by purchasing longer-term securities, paid for by creating bank reserves. These purchases increased the demand for longer-term Treasuries and similar securities, which pushed up the prices of these assets, and thereby reduced longer-term interest rates. In turn, lower interest rates have improved financial conditions and helped stimulate real economic activity (see Williams 2011b for details).』
『The important point is that the additional stimulus to the economy from our asset purchases is primarily a result of lower interest rates, rather than a textbook process of reserve creation, leading to an increased money supply. It is through its effects on interest rates and other financial conditions that monetary policy affects the economy.』
『But, once the economy improves sufficiently, won’t banks start lending more actively, causing the historical money multiplier to reassert itself? And can’t the resulting huge increase in the money supply overheat the economy, leading to higher inflation? The answer to these questions is no, and the reason is a profound, but largely unappreciated change in the inner workings of monetary policy.』
『The change is that the Fed now pays interest on reserves. The opportunity cost of holding reserves is now the difference between the federal funds rate and the interest rate on reserves. The Fed will likely raise the interest rate on reserves as it raises the target federal funds rate (see Board of Governors 2011). Therefore, for banks, reserves at the Fed are close substitutes for Treasury bills in terms of return and safety. A Fed exchange of bank reserves that pay interest for a T-bill that carries a very similar interest rate has virtually no effect on the economy. Instead, what matters for the economy is the level of interest rates, which are affected by monetary policy.』
『This means that the historical relationships between the amount of reserves, the money supply, and the economy are unlikely to hold in the future.』
というのが大体の結論になりますわな。
『If banks are happy to hold excess reserves as an interest-bearing asset, then the marginal money multiplier on those reserves can be close to zero. As a result, in a world where the Fed pays interest on bank reserves, traditional theories that tell of a mechanical link between reserves, money supply, and, ultimately, inflation are no longer valid.』
なるほど。
『In particular, the world changes if the Fed is willing to pay a high enough interest rate on reserves. In that case, the quantity of reserves held by U.S. banks could be extremely large and have only small effects on, say, the money stock, bank lending, or inflation.』
『As I noted earlier, inflation and inflation expectations have been low for the past four years, despite the huge increase in the monetary base. Of course, if the economy improved markedly, inflationary pressures could build. Under such circumstances, the Federal Reserve would need to remove monetary accommodation to keep the economy from overheating and excessive inflation from emerging. It can do this in two ways: first, by raising the interest rate paid on reserves along with the target federal funds rate; and, second, by reducing its holdings of longer-term securities, which would reverse the effects of the asset purchase programs on interest rates.』
出口政策は利上げ(+リザーブ付利引き上げ)→長期債を減らすという2段構えと。
『In thinking of exit strategy, the nature of the monetary policy problem the Fed will face is no different than in past recoveries when the Fed needed to “take away the punch bowl.” Of course, getting the timing just right to engineer a soft landing with low inflation is always difficult. This time, it will be especially challenging, given the extraordinary depth and duration of the recession and recovery. The Federal Reserve is prepared to meet this challenge when that time comes.』
FRBSF Economic Letter [外部リンク] Policy, Money, and Inflation By John C. Williams
で、最初のサマリーは先日ネタにしたのですが。
『Textbook monetary theory holds that increasing the money supply leads to higher inflation. However, the Federal Reserve has tripled the monetary base since 2008 without inflation surging. With interest rates at historically low levels and the economy still struggling, the normal money multiplier process has broken down and inflation pressures remain subdued. The following is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the Western Economic Association International on July 2, 2012.』
『And I’ll begin my presentation with a reference to another pathbreaking monetary theorist. Milton Friedman (1970) famously said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output” (p. 24). We are currently engaged in a test of this proposition.』
ですなあ。
『Over the past four years, the Federal Reserve has more than tripled the monetary base, a key determinant of money supply. Some commentators have sounded an alarm that this massive expansion of the monetary base will inexorably lead to high inflation, a la Friedman.』
『Despite these dire predictions, inflation in the United States has been the dog that didn’t bark. As Figure 1 shows, it has averaged less than 2% over the past four years. What’s more, as the figure also shows, surveys of inflation expectations indicate that low inflation is anticipated for at least the next ten years.』
『In my remarks, I will try to reconcile monetary theory with the recent performance of inflation. In my view, recent developments make a compelling case that traditional textbook views of the connections between monetary policy, money, and inflation are outdated and need to be revised.』
『I’ll start with two definitions. The monetary base is the sum of U.S. currency in circulation and bank reserves held at the Federal Reserve. Figure 2 shows the key components of the monetary base since 2007. Up until late 2008, it consisted mostly of currency, with a small amount of bank reserves held mostly to meet regulatory requirements. Since then, the monetary base has risen dramatically, primarily because of a $1.5 trillion increase in bank reserves.』
『The money stock is a related concept. It is the total quantity of account balances at banks and other financial institutions that can easily be accessed to make payments. A standard measure of the money stock is M2, which includes currency, and certain deposit and money market accounts.』
『Here I should make an important point about something that often confuses the public. The worry is not that the Fed is literally printing too much currency. The quantity of currency in circulation is entirely determined by demand from people and businesses. It’s not an independent decision of monetary policy and, on its own, it has no implications for inflation.』
>The quantity of currency in circulation is entirely determined by demand from people and businesses.
『The Federal Reserve meets demand for currency elastically. If people want to hold more of it, we freely exchange reserves for currency. If people want less, then we exchange it back. Of course, currency doesn’t pay interest. People hold it as a low-cost medium of exchange and a safe store of value. In fact, over the past four years, U.S. currency holdings have risen about 35%.』
ここ4年で通貨が35%拡大したとな。
『This reflects low interest rates, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding currency. It’s also due to worries about the economy and the health of the banking system, both here and abroad. In fact, nearly two-thirds of U.S. currency is held outside our borders (see Goldberg 2010). U.S. currency is widely seen as a safe haven. When a country is going through economic or political turmoil, people tend to convert some of their financial assets to U.S. currency. Such increased demand for U.S. currency is taking place in Europe today.』
『For monetary policy, the relevant metric is bank reserves. The Federal Reserve controls the quantity of bank reserves as it implements monetary policy. To keep things simple, I’ll start with what happens when the Fed doesn’t pay interest on reserves, which was the case until late 2008. I’ll return to the issue of interest on reserves toward the end of my talk.』
しかしまあ何ですな、この前ネタにしたようにFOMC議事要旨の最後の所で『At this meeting, participants discussed various aspects of the exercise, such as the possible monetary policy assumptions on which to condition an FOMC consensus forecast, the measurement of the degree of uncertainty surrounding each of the projected variables in the forecast, and the potential for communications benefits.』ってな部分がありましたが、緩和効果らしきものをコミュニケーションポリシーで強化しようというお気持ちは判るのですけれども、その手の舌先三寸スキームというのは自分で自分の手足を縛るという面があり(大体からしてコミットメント的な政策はそういうもんですし)、状況が変化した時に却って話がややこしくなりますし、後から色々と付け加えていくと段々複雑骨折状態になって、収拾するのがエライコッチャになるリスクがあるのでどうかなと思います。まあ言ってみればどこぞの中央銀行のやっている資産買入等基金オペみたいなもんで、とりあえず買入の期間を少しずつ長くして逝ったら手前の方のニーズが無くなってしまって話がややこしくなるみたいなもんですな(ちと違うか^^)。
○西村副総裁がワールドツアーを実施しているようです
[外部リンク] Transition, Impact of ICT, and Globalization: A Long View of the Post-Crisis World トルコ中銀主催セミナーにおける西村副総裁講演(8月27日)
ということで講演テキストはこちら。 [外部リンク] Transition, Impact of ICT, and Globalization:A Long View of the Post-Crisis World Speech at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
「人口動態の変化、情報通信技術のインパクト、そしてグローバリゼイション、危機後の世界における長期的な見方」とか何とかいうお題(ICTというのはInformation and Communication Technologyの略です)で、題名と小見出しを見た所(このテキスト出たの昨日の多分遅めの時間だったので中身気が付いたのは不覚にも今朝)西村副総裁というよりは西村教授の講演の香りが致しまして、先般は豪州で不動産バブルの発生に関して人口動態と信用の急速な拡大が寄与しているという話(とバブルへの金融政策対応に関する話)をしておりましたが、今度はトルコにお出掛けという事で、まあこの時期はあちこちで中銀のこの手のセミナーがあります(一番の大玉がジャクソンホール)けれども、何かこう連続でお出掛けになっているのもあまり無かったような気がする次第。
『The incoming information on inflation over the intermeeting period was largely in line with participants' expectations. Consumer prices had decelerated as a result of the pass-through of lower crude oil costs to retail prices of gasoline and fuel oil. Crude oil prices had turned up again more recently, but one participant noted that global inventories of oil were elevated and, with world demand easing, prices should be restrained going forward. Participants acknowledged that the drought would likely result in a temporary run-up in consumer food prices later this year.』
『Nonetheless, inflation was expected to remain subdued, on balance, over coming quarters. In explaining that outlook, participants cited the lack of upward pressure from labor costs and prices of imported commodities as well as the stability of inflation expectations. 』
『A couple of participants referred to information from business contacts suggesting that inflation was unlikely to decline further, and a few expressed concerns that maintaining a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy for an extended period could erode the stability of inflation expectations over time and hence posed upside risks to the inflation outlook. 』
『Financial markets remained sensitive to ongoing developments related to the sovereign debt and banking situation in the euro area, and participants continued to view the possibility of an intensification of strains in global financial markets as a significant downside risk to the domestic economic outlook. Several participants indicated that recent trends in euro-area equity indexes and sovereign debt yields had not been encouraging, and some noted that the uncertainty prevailing in global financial markets was showing through in a cautious posture of investors.』
『Nonetheless, participants generally agreed that conditions in domestic credit markets remained more favorable than they were a year ago. One participant pointed out that credit risk spreads--while still above pre-recession norms--may have been boosted by safe-haven demands for Treasury securities and indicated that broader financial market conditions seemed reasonably accommodative. Banks were reported to be seeing an increase in their residential mortgage business along with a continued rise in C&I lending, especially to large firms; consumer credit was also increasing.』
『The Committee had provided additional accommodation at its previous meeting by announcing the continuation of the maturity extension program through the end of the year, and more time was seen as necessary to evaluate the effects of that decision. Nonetheless, many members expected that at the end of 2014, the unemployment rate would still be well above their estimates of its longer-term normal rate and that inflation would be at or below the Committee's longer-run objective of 2 percent.』
前回追加は打ち込んだものの、先行き見通しは引き続き失業が高止まりという話ですが。
『A number of them indicated that additional accommodation could help foster a more rapid improvement in labor market conditions in an environment in which price pressures were likely to be subdued. Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery.』
『Several members noted the benefits of accumulating further information that could help clarify the contours of the outlook for economic activity and inflation as well as the need for further policy action.』
『One member judged that additional accommodation would likely not be effective in improving the economic outlook and viewed the potential costs associated with such action as unacceptably high.』
どう見てもラッカー総裁です本当にありがとうございました。
『At the conclusion of the discussion, members agreed that they would closely monitor economic and financial developments and carefully weigh the potential benefits and costs of various tools in assessing whether additional policy action would be warranted.』
つーことで今後のデータ次第ということですが・・・・・・
その次のパラグラフは声明文とかディレクションをどうするかという話です。
『With respect to the statement to be released following the meeting, members agreed that it should acknowledge the deceleration in economic activity, the small gains in employment, and the slowing in inflation reflected in the economic data over the intermeeting period. Because most saw no significant changes in the medium-run outlook, they agreed to continue to indicate that the Committee anticipates a very gradual pickup in economic activity over time and a slow decline in unemployment, with inflation at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.』
『Many members expressed support for extending the Committee's forward guidance, but they agreed to defer a decision on this matter until the September meeting in order to consider such an adjustment in the context of updates to participants' individual economic projections and the Committee's further consideration of its policy options.』
『The statement also reiterated the Committee's intention to extend the average maturity of its securities holdings as announced in June.』
まあこれはどうでもよい。
『Consistent with the concerns expressed by many members about the slow pace of the economic recovery, the downside risks to economic growth, and the considerable slack in resource utilization, the Committee decided that the statement should conclude by indicating that it will provide additional accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.』
『Mr. Lacker dissented because he did not believe that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate were likely to be warranted for the length of time specified in the Committee's statement. In his view, significant uncertainty regarding the evolution of economic conditions over the next few years made the future path of interest rates difficult to forecast, and the Committee's statement implied more confidence on this score than justified by the current outlook.』
『Mr. Lacker dissented because he did not believe that economic conditions were likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate through late 2014. In his view, an increase in the federal funds rate was likely to be necessary by mid-2013 to prevent the emergence of inflationary pressures.』(4月のラッカー先生)
『In light of the discussion at the previous FOMC meeting, the subcommittee on communications developed an initial experimental exercise intended to shed light on the feasibility and desirability of constructing an FOMC consensus forecast. At this meeting, participants discussed various aspects of the exercise, such as the possible monetary policy assumptions on which to condition an FOMC consensus forecast, the measurement of the degree of uncertainty surrounding each of the projected variables in the forecast, and the potential for communications benefits. In conclusion, participants generally expressed support for a second exercise to be undertaken in conjunction with the September FOMC meeting.』
[外部リンク] Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』の方の追補詳細という感じですのでよろしゅうに。まずはスルーしていた経済のポイントに関する論点から。
・労働市場と生産市場のスラックに関して
同部分の第3パラグラフ以降が幾つかの経済に関するポイントについての説明。
『Meeting participants again exchanged views on the extent of slack in labor and product markets. A number of participants expressed the view that structural changes in the labor market were not sufficient to explain the high level of unemployment. Those participants saw substantial slack in resource utilization and hence continued to judge that inflation was likely to remain subdued over the medium term as the economy continued to recover.』
ということで、経済のスラックに関する考察ですけれども、多くの(A number of)参加者は労働市場の構造的な変化は現在の高い失業を説明するのに十分では無く、リソースの活用状況にかなりのスラックがある事によって、経済の回復が続く中においてもインフレが抑制されている事の要因と判断されるという指摘。
『However, several other participants interpreted the moderate pace of the recovery as pointing to a more substantial markdown in the trajectory of potential output. In particular, a couple of participants noted that they would have expected inflation to have fallen more in recent years if the output gap had been as substantial as some measures suggested.』
『One participant posited that the sharp decline in net worth and reduced credit availability in recent years not only weighed on aggregate demand, but also reduced aggregate supply by hampering new business formation and product innovation; another participant cited evidence that structural unemployment was elevated as a result of mismatches between the skills demanded by employers and those of the long-duration unemployed.』
『In discussing developments in the household sector, many participants noted the recent deceleration in overall consumer spending, although a couple cited new autos and tourism as areas of relative strength. Participants saw several factors as likely contributing to slower consumer spending, including the weakness in earned income and a high level of uncertainty among households about the economic outlook. Several pointed out that while households had made considerable progress in reducing their debt and rebuilding their savings, the deleveraging process was still ongoing, the level of housing debt remained high, and a significant number of mortgage borrowers continued to be underwater on their loans.』
『Home sales and construction were generally viewed as gradually improving, supported in part by historically low mortgage interest rates. Many participants reported that house prices in their Districts were rising or had bottomed out, and several noted that their contacts saw signs of progress in reducing the overhang of unsold properties. However, it was noted that the reduction in inventories should be viewed cautiously because owners who are underwater on their mortgages may be withholding their homes from the market, implying a substantial "shadow" inventory.』
でまあ住宅に関しては「generally viewed as gradually improving」ということで、その要因の一部として「historically low mortgage interest rates」というのを挙げておりまして、まあ(今日はネタにしませんけど)地区連銀総裁などの講演などでも最近はすっかり金融緩和政策の効果として「金利」が前面に打ち出されるようになっておりまして、そういう点からしますと「長期金利を低位安定させる」というのが追加金融緩和政策におけるキモになる筈だなあと思われる次第。
『Regarding the business sector, many participants reported that, with the exception of motor vehicle production, manufacturing activity in their Districts was slow or had declined in recent months. Nonetheless, forward-looking surveys of orders and manufacturing production in a couple of Districts were more positive. Energy-related activity continued to expand, and investment projects in that sector were reported to be moving forward.』
『However, contacts in several Districts indicated that export demand had weakened as a result of the slowdown in economic activity in Europe; Asia; and some emerging market countries, including China.』
『More generally, some participants reported that their business contacts regarded the economic outlook to be highly uncertain, in part due to unresolved fiscal and regulatory matters. Although several participants noted that the uncertainty had not led businesses in their Districts to reduce payrolls or cut back spending, others cited reports of shortfalls from business plans that could lead to cost-cutting, of restructuring to position firms for leaner operations, or even of postponed investment and hiring.』
『Two participants provided an update on the situation in the agricultural sector in light of the drought in the Midwest: With crop yields projected to be down markedly and prices rising, livestock producers appeared likely to suffer losses as a result of higher input costs while crop producers would need to rely on higher prices and crop insurance to stabilize their income.』
[外部リンク] to detect and respond to property bubbles: Challenges for policy-makers Remarks at the Reserve Bank of Australia-BIS Research Conference "Property Markets and Financial Stability" in Sydney
Kiyohiko G. Nishimura Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan August 21, 2012
んでもって本文はこちら。 [外部リンク] How to Detect Malign Bubbles 2. How to Respond to a Malign Bubble
『Let me start with the first question: How can we detect malign bubbles? Here we should be aware that not all property bubbles lead to financial crises, and not all financial crises are preceded by property bubbles. International panel studies have shown that two-thirds of 46 systemic banking crises were preceded by house price boom-bust patterns, while 35 out of 51 house price-bust episodes were followed by a crisis. So there are both malign bubbles and benign ones.』
『Then, what leads to a malign bubble? Looking back at past experience of malign bubbles, we find another factor which has not been touched upon by the presentations so far: the demographic transition from a “population dividend” to the “burden of an ageing population.”』
『Let us look at the charts comparing the Japanese property bubble of the 1990s, the US house price bubble of the 2000s, and the possible Chinese property bubble. In these three charts, I juxtapose, first, the ratio of working-age population to the rest (the inverse dependency ratio), second, the real property price index, and third, total loans in real terms.』
>the possible Chinese property bubble >the possible Chinese property bubble >the possible Chinese property bubble
ではどういう事かという話ですが、過去の日米を比較して足元の中国の話になるのですな。
で、日本の場合。
『In Japan (Chart 1), we have two peaks in the working-age population ratio,accompanied by two peaks in the real property price index, which is the real land price index. Of these two, the second peak, around 1991, happened to be a malign bubble which triggered a subsequent long period of stagnation. Then, what is the difference between the two? The volume of total loans in real terms may suggest an answer. Real loans were increasing at the time of the first peak, but their level was not as high as during the second peak.』
『A remarkably similar picture is found in the United States (Chart 2). We have two peaks in the working-age population ratio, though not as pronounced as in Japan. And the real property price index, which is the real house price index, seems to have two peaks, roughly coinciding with the demographic change. Again, the second peak triggered the financial crisis of 2008, though the first peak coincided with the S&L problem, which had a far less severe effect on the economy. Adding the real total loans to the chart, we find a quite similar pattern to the Japanese case. The level of the real total loans in the first peak was high, but far lower than in the second peak.』
『The last chart shows the figures for China (Chart 3). China has not yet peaked with respect to working-age population ratio, but it is close. The property price index was taken from the web site of a Shanghai index provider, who unfortunately and unexpectedly shut down their site and vanished about a year ago (June 2011). I tentatively use this index since it has a longer span than other indexes, although I am not entirely sure how it was constructed. The chart shows a clear upsurge in property prices up to 2010. Again the real total loan also shows a tremendous increase along with the working-age population ratio and the property price index.』
『What lessons can we learn from this rather cursory examination of the recent history of two advanced economies and the present situation of one emerging economy? It is clear that not every bubble-bust episode leads to a financial crisis. However, if a demographic change, a property price bubble, and a steep increase in loans coincide, then a financial crisis seems more likely. And China is now entering the “danger zone.”』
>China is now entering the “danger zone.” >China is now entering the “danger zone.” >China is now entering the “danger zone.”
『Participants discussed a number of policy tools that the Committee might employ if it decided to provide additional monetary accommodation to support a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability.』
キタコレ。
『One of the policy options discussed was an extension of the period over which the Committee expected to maintain its target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent.』
まずはフォワードガイダンス文言の延長。
『It was noted that such an extension might be particularly effective if done in conjunction with a statement indicating that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy was likely to be maintained even as the recovery progressed.』
『Given the uncertainty attending the economic outlook, a few participants questioned whether the conditionality of the forward guidance was sufficiently clear, and they suggested that the Committee should consider replacing the calendar date with guidance that was linked more directly to the economic factors that the Committee would consider in deciding to raise its target for the federal funds rate, or omit the forward guidance language entirely.』
『Participants also exchanged views on the likely benefits and costs of a new large-scale asset purchase program.』
QE3キター!
『Many participants expected that such a program could provide additional support for the economic recovery both by putting downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and by contributing to easier financial conditions more broadly.』
長期金利の低下圧力を与え、幅広く金融環境をより緩和する効果がありますとはまあそうですわな。
『In addition, some participants noted that a new program might boost business and consumer confidence and reinforce the Committee's commitment to making sustained progress toward its mandated objectives.』
『Participants also discussed the merits of purchases of Treasury securities relative to agency MBS.』
ほう。
『However, others questioned the possible efficacy of such a program under present circumstances, and a couple suggested that the effects on economic activity might be transitory.』
『In reviewing the costs that such a program might entail, some participants expressed concerns about the effects of additional asset purchases on trading conditions in markets related to Treasury securities and agency MBS, but others agreed with the staff's analysis showing substantial capacity for additional purchases without disrupting market functioning.』
『Several worried that additional purchases might alter the process of normalizing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet when the time came to begin removing accommodation. A few participants were concerned that an extended period of accommodation or an additional large-scale asset purchase program could increase the risks to financial stability or lead to a rise in longer-term inflation expectations.』
『Many participants indicated that any new purchase program should be sufficiently flexible to allow adjustments, as needed, in response to economic developments or to changes in the Committee's assessment of the efficacy and costs of the program.』
『Some participants commented on other possible tools for adding policy accommodation, including a reduction in the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances.』
他の手段として付利下げの話が。
『While a couple of participants favored such a reduction, several others raised concerns about possible adverse effects on money markets. It was noted that the ECB's recent cut in its deposit rate to zero provided an opportunity to learn more about the possible consequences for market functioning of such a move.』
『In light of the Bank of England's Funding for Lending Scheme, a couple of participants expressed interest in exploring possible programs aimed at encouraging bank lending to households and firms, although the importance of institutional differences between the two countries was noted.』
『The Committee had provided additional accommodation at its previous meeting by announcing the continuation of the maturity extension program through the end of the year, and more time was seen as necessary to evaluate the effects of that decision. Nonetheless, many members expected that at the end of 2014, the unemployment rate would still be well above their estimates of its longer-term normal rate and that inflation would be at or below the Committee's longer-run objective of 2 percent.』
『A number of them indicated that additional accommodation could help foster a more rapid improvement in labor market conditions in an environment in which price pressures were likely to be subdued.』
ということで当該部分になります。
『Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery.』
『Several members noted the benefits of accumulating further information that could help clarify the contours of the outlook for economic activity and inflation as well as the need for further policy action. One member judged that additional accommodation would likely not be effective in improving the economic outlook and viewed the potential costs associated with such action as unacceptably high.』
ふむ。
『At the conclusion of the discussion, members agreed that they would closely monitor economic and financial developments and carefully weigh the potential benefits and costs of various tools in assessing whether additional policy action would be warranted.』
[外部リンク] of Communications regarding Economic Projections』というのがあって、SEPにおけるコミュニケーション方法をどうしましょ的な話があったのですが、今回はヌルーという事は前回ある程度話がまとまったのかねという所ですな。まあどうでも良いですが。
で、この後の政策云々の話の事を考えますと、経済状況に関する連銀スタッフの報告内容とか先行き見通しとかを熟読しておくのが良いのですけれども、日々熱帯夜の寝起きにつき『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』から先を全力斜め読み。
・景気の現状認識は引き下げ
んでまあ『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』の最初のパラグラフから。
『In their discussion of the economic situation and the outlook, meeting participants agreed that the information received since the Committee met in June suggested that economic activity had decelerated in recent months to a slower pace than they had anticipated. Although business investment had continued to advance, consumer spending had slowed considerably since earlier in the year. Conditions in the housing sector appeared to have improved somewhat, but from a very low level. Indicators of manufacturing activity had softened. Recent monthly gains in payroll employment had continued to be small, and the unemployment rate in June remained at an elevated level. Consumer price inflation had been low in recent months, as declines in the costs of crude oil were passed through to retail energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations had remained stable.』
『Regarding the economic outlook, most participants agreed that economic growth was likely to remain moderate over coming quarters and then pick up gradually.』
『However, some participants indicated that they had lowered their near-term forecasts for economic growth in light of the weaker-than-expected increases in consumer spending and employment in recent months. In addition, some participants expressed concern about the persistent headwinds restraining the pace of the recovery, including the weak housing sector, still-tight borrowing conditions for some households and firms, and fiscal restraint at all levels of government.』
『Many participants judged that a high level of uncertainty about possible spillovers from the fiscal and banking strains in the euro area and about the outlook for U.S. fiscal or regulatory policies was holding back household and business spending. And they saw the possibilities of an intensification of strains in the euro area and of a sharper-than-anticipated U.S. fiscal consolidation as significant downside risks to the economic outlook.』
『Although participants generally agreed that improvements in recent years in the capital and liquidity of financial institutions and in the strength of household and business balance sheets have increased the resilience of the economy, some were concerned that at its current pace, the recovery was still vulnerable to adverse shocks.』
『Given participants' forecasts of economic activity, they generally anticipated that the unemployment rate would decline only slowly toward levels that participants judge to be consistent with the Committee's mandate.』
失業率に関する見通しは声明文と一緒で特段のおまけなし。
『Participants' assessments of the outlook for inflation were largely unchanged from those reported in June. Smoothing through the effects of fluctuations in food and energy prices, participants anticipated that inflation over the medium term would remain at or below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective.』
『i want to talk about some of the criticisms of quantitative easing but maybe in the first order, could you explain why this would do any good? you were already talking about, i looked this morning, a 3.6% 30-year mortgage, 1.5, call it 1.6 on the ten-year yield, if you must. interest rates are already low. real rates are actually already negative. why would an even lower rate have any practical impact on things that matter to people, the level of growth, and mortgage rates, interest rates?』
『there are a number of areas quantitative easing can help in. one it does push up asset prices so around times when we're announcing quantitative easing program, stock prices, equity prices tend to go up, that increases consumption as people's wealth improves.』
『second area is the housing market, before we went on we were commenting on the housing market has been improving in boston. look at what people are renting for apartments in boston and looking at what a condo is, and factoring in what the current mortgage rates are, the lower the rates are and given prices are quite low relative to historical standards there's more opportunity for people to make a decision instead of renting they'll purchase a condo or a house and the housing market has been improving, partly a reflection of what we've done to date.』
『aren't we at a point the marginal person who would qualify for a mortgage rate is not qualifying not because of the rate, but because their home is deeply underwater and that's really an issue for the fiscal side, not really a rate issue?』
『i think it's both a rate and availability issue, as the rates go down, part of it is you need to be convinced that housing prices are going to go up and you're getting a rate that's low relative to the cycle, so if we're artificially pushing rates down it encourages some of those waiting to determine when they want to purchase a house or purchase a condo, that this is a particularly good time to do so. and i think that's actually true and that's why we're starting to see some legs in the housing market, and you certainly see it in boston, where the housing has picked up.』
『some say some of those assets whose price, pushed up are things like oil and commodities and overall inflation which tends to undermine spending power. isn't that a big negative for additional quantitative easing?』
『you would be concerned about the inflationary effects if you thought that we would have big inflationary effects. we've had two quantitative easing programs, right now the total inflation rates, 1.5% so our balance sheet expanded in 2008, it's now 2012, many people were concerned about the involitionary impact of expanding our balance sheet and both of the quantitative easing programs. our problem right now is we're below our 2% target, not above our 2% target. that's despite two quantitative easing programs and the fact that our balance sheet is much larger, so i think the inflationary effects, while that's a real concern and we have to factor that in, to date we haven't seen the inflationary pressures because we haven't got the economic growth we were hoping to get.』
『so the one issue with pegging a rate is that you may not have complete control over your balance sheet at that point. if you want to have more control over how rapidly your balance sheet's increasing then you'd set a rate.』
という所まで引用しましたが、そこで質問が入るのですな。
『hold on, you've just -- -- (引用者注:この部分はローゼングレン総裁の発言の最後の部分の続きになっています)trying to push the rate down. -- (ここから質問者の発言再開)you're advocating open-ended qe which means you don't care how big the balance sheet gets. 』
『open-ended in terms of not setting a time or calendar date and not setting a magnitude, but it's not saying that we would purchase everything in a short period of time or not purchase anything for a short period of time, depending on where market rates were relative to your peg. it would be setting a quantity that you're going to continue to buy until you get the kind of economic outcomes you want.』
で、その説明にありますように、「it's not saying that we would purchase everything in a short period of time or not purchase anything for a short period of time」という言い方をしていまして、まあハト派の主張するような形でQE3が突っ込まれた場合であっても、QE1やQE2の時のような「大規模な資産買入」という形になるというよりは「長期間に渡る買入の漸進的な拡大」というテイストになるのではないかと思われるのですがどうでしょうかねえ。
『do you feel like there's any practical limit to the size of the fed's balance sheet?』
まあ当然ちゃあ当然のお答え。
『there's clearly a limit to how large the balance sheet can be because we're limited in what we can purchase so we can only purchase treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities so the stock of those two is certainly the maximum amount that we could hold.』
市場にあるもの以上は買えませんというのは仰せの通り。
『my hope would be that the policy would be substantial enough that we actually wouldn't have to carry it on for that long and we'd start seeing real improvements in the economy, that we'd see stronger growth in the economy. 』
『as you highlight we've only been treading water. we started the year with 8.3% unemployment. we now have 8.3% unemployment as well. we started with the population ratio and participation rate in the market of what we've been seeing now. we've only been treading water in the labor markets and the gdp reports are disappointing. first warter 2%, second quarter 1.5%. my expectation is the second half of the year won't be much better so given that we're only treading water that's the reason why my expectation is the second half of the year won't be much better so given that we're only treading water that's the reason why i would advocate for a more accommodative monetary policy. 』
『my own forecast is a little bit lower than the consensus for gdp and higher for the unemployment rate. my own expectation is, in the absence of any kind of policy, that we'd have an 8.4% unemployment rate at the end of the year, and i'd expect the second half of the year not to be much better than the first half. we did 1.75% the first year, roughly that, maybe a little worse. we've gone from the first quarter to the second quarter the economy slowed down, both consumption and investment got weaker and i think that's a reflection of concerns of what's going on in europe, concerns about how our own fiscal deficit will play out. 』
『if treading water, even if you're a good swimmer, at some point you need to get to land. we were expecting a pickup in the economy, if you looked at our january meeting, when we produced the forecast, peerm expecting 1% to 3% for real gdp, we'll be substantially below that over the course of this year so it calls for accommodative monetary policy.』
ということですが、Transcriptには表示されていませんが、放送の方では「it calls for much more accommodative monetary policy」と話をしておりまして、経済が立ち泳ぎ状態でGDPギャップが1%〜3%あるのですからしてより積極的な緩和が必要という話をしておりますな。
『i think it needs to be substantial enough that it offsets some of the shocks we're getting from abroad and some of the concerns people have with how weak the world economy has been so we're in a global slowdown so that would argue for a quantitative easing program and one of sufficient magnitude that it has an impact.』
更に、経済のショックに対する観点からも積極的な緩和が必要という話っす。
・具体的には「経済データ紐付けでの緩和政策継続のコミットメント」を提言
ということでエバンス総裁とその辺は大体同じようなニュアンスの話ですね。
『it would be one -- what we'd argue for, actually, is to have it open-ended, that we focus on economic outcomes, so i've argued for the guidance should be tied to economic outcomes, president evans suggested the same thing.』
というかここでエバンス総裁も同じことをサジェストしていると仰せですが。
『i would argue that if we do quantitative easing program again, we should be using economic outcomes as what we're trying to get. we want a stronger economy. we want faster growth in the in, and we want a labor market that has an unemployment rate that's clearly declining.』
どのように実施するのかという質問に対して。
『 i would focus on the mortgage-backed securities and it would be a monthly rate that you could alter if you wanted to, but an expectation that you would have it of a substantial magnitude, so rather than setting a calendar date, rather than setting a magnitude, you'd say we're going to do this monthly growth rate until we see an improvement in the economy we're hoping to get』
『growth rate of q snerks. of purchases, yes. you'd grow the balance sheet by x% per month? or x dollar amount. and you would raise that or lower that based on incoming economic data? exactly』
『(これは質問です)what targets -- first of all, why not just set a rate, why not peg the 30-year to a 3%? have you thought about that?』
『i have thought about that. i think there are some have that argued we should be pegging a rate. i think it's very difficult to peg a rate in an environment where a lot of things are occurring in the world that we don't have much control over, so you could be in a situation where you're flooded with securities that you're purchasing or that nobody, that you're not purchasing any securities, so the one issue with pegging a rate is that you may not have complete control over your balance sheet at that point. if you want to have more control over how rapidly your balance sheet's increasing then you'd set a rate. 』
『The details of the Bank of England and Government Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) had also been issued during the month and the drawdown window had opened. In response, a number of banks had already announced reductions in the rates on certain mortgage and small-business loans.』
どう見てもFLS実施による無言の圧力または窓口指導です本当にありがとうございました。
『It would take a while, however, before it would be possible to assess with any confidence the impact the Scheme was having on lending.』
『Looking back over a longer period, the recovery had stalled at the end of 2010, following a period of growth from the middle of 2009. Output had been broadly flat since then, a considerable shortfall compared to expectations formed at the time. It was possible to point to factors that could plausibly account for much of this disappointing performance.』
ということで、ここまで景気の足を引っ張ったものは何ですねんという話。
『The rise in commodity prices and other import prices, and the increase in VAT, had depressed real incomes and household spending. Government spending on goods and services had recently been lower than planned. The recovery in overseas demand for UK goods and services had been weak, particularly in the euro area, where the outlook remained fragile and unusually uncertain. Funding conditions for banks had worsened, again in part as a result of the deterioration in the situation in the euro area, and credit conditions had tightened.』
『The impact of some of these factors, such as the drag on growth from commodity and other import prices, had begun to wane. The recent expansion of the asset purchase programme, together with the FLS and other policies that aimed to boost bank lending, would act to underpin activity. It was probable, therefore, that GDP growth would begin to pick up somewhat; indeed four-quarter growth in broad money had already increased to 3.5% in the second quarter, having been growing at less than half of that pace at the end of 2011.』
『But other factors, such as the uncertainty over the evolution of the euro-area crisis, were unlikely to dissipate quickly and so would continue to dampen demand growth. More broadly, many previous financial crises had been associated with sustained periods of weak output; it was by no means clear when the effects of the recent financial crisis would cease to restrain the recovery.』
『The labour market had continued to be surprisingly resilient in the face of the contraction in activity.』
経済活動が落ち込む中で労働市場はサブライジングリーに回復力が強いとな。
『The unemployment rate had fallen to 8.1% in the three months to May and employment was estimated to have risen by 181,000, with increases in the numbers of both full-time and part-time employees. Despite recording a large fall in the output index for July, the Markit/CIPS employment index for manufacturing had risen.』
と堅調推移と。
『During the month, the ONS had published the first results of the 2011 Census for England and Wales. These had revealed a larger population than previous estimates, due in part to net immigration higher than previously assumed. But, by and large, the new estimates had simply confirmed the message from direct indicators of migration flows, such as air passenger numbers, and so did not change the Committee’s understanding of the labour market to any great extent.』
『Employment growth had outpaced the growth in output over the previous two years meaning that measured productivity had fallen. Strong hiring could indicate that activity was stronger than currently measured, although the measurement error would have to be unusually large to account for most of the productivity shortfall. While it was possible to identify factors that had contributed to the weakness in activity, there was as yet no clear explanation as to why at the same time employment had continued to increase and why productivity had therefore been so weak.』
『On the one hand, the weakness could reflect a persistent slowing in underlying productivity growth. Problems in the banking system might have prevented some companies from obtaining finance to expand their operations, while others might have found their production constrained by restricted access to working capital. Contacts of the Bank’s Agents had reported that some companies had increased their professional staff devoted to risk and compliance.』
『On the other hand, the weakness in productivity might be cyclical. Some companies might have needed to retain a certain minimum level of staff to continue operating, and depressed trading conditions could mean that employees had to work harder to generate new business. In addition, companies might have maintained or taken on new employees in the expectation of an increase in demand, either domestically or overseas, depressing measured productivity in the interim. Should that increase in demand fail to materialise, they could be forced to reduce staffing again, perhaps significantly.』
とまあこちらは循環要因に重きを置いた話。
『But equally, some might be taking advantage of the lower exchange rate and the rebalancing of global demand by seeking to enter new markets. The process of reorienting production and shifting labour accordingly could be quite long and drawn out, during which time measured productivity might increase only slowly, but might nonetheless be fruitful in the longer run.』
後半の部分はそうかねえという気がするんですけど・・・・・・
・政策決定に関して:資産買入の拡大を検討
政策決定に関する議論でも上記の話がありまして、第36パラグラフに改めて『Even though it was possible to identify factors that had limited the recovery in activity, the conjunction of weak output and moderate growth in employment that had prevailed over the past two years was more difficult to understand.』というのがありますけれども、まあそこの引用は割愛いたしまして、最後の方になります第38パラグラフ。
『The Committee discussed whether it was appropriate to expand or continue with the programme of asset purchases it had agreed at its previous meeting.』
『Inflation was still slightly above 2% but likely to remain close to the target in the coming months. The level of underlying activity was perhaps not as weak as the GDP data for the second quarter had suggested and, with the squeeze on real incomes beginning to ease, some recovery in spending was probable.』
というのが経済物価見通し。
『The FLS had the potential to improve funding conditions for banks materially and to encourage lending, thus providing some support to both demand and supply. These effects might be particularly marked if the FLS allowed some households and companies to borrow who had previously been unable to obtain bank credit.』
FLSの効果に期待という話ですな。
『Set against that, the FLS might prove less effective if uncertainty and risk aversion among households and businesses were the dominant factors holding back spending in the current environment. These same factors might also limit the effectiveness of additional asset purchases.』
『12 各国金融当局のテスト手法を概観すると、金融システム全体の貸出債権のデフォルト確率とデフォルト時損失率をもとに、マクロの信用コストを推計する手法が多数派である。詳細は次の論文を参照。Otani, A., S. Shiratsuka, R. Tsurui, and T. Yamada, "Macro stress-testing on the loan portfolio of Japanese banks," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series, No.09-E-1, March 2009. Foglia, A., "Stress testing credit risk: A survey of authorities' approaches," International Journal of Central Banking, Vol.5, No.3, September 2009.』
『市場金利の変動は、銀行の運用・調達にかかるキャッシュフロー(運用・調達利息)や割引率の変化を通じて、銀行収益に影響を及ぼす。金利リスクテストは、実体経済その他の条件は一定との仮定のもと、市場金利の変動に伴う銀行の期間収益の変化を検証するものである。金利リスクテストでも、信用リスクテストと同様、3 段階の手順を踏んでいる(図表9)。まず、市場のイールドカーブに関するストレスシナリオを選択する。次に、ストレスシナリオとして描写した市場金利の上昇ショックが、貸出利息、調達利息、債券利息、債券評価額に及ぼす影響を試算する。最後に、これらのファクターをもとに、Tier I 比率に換算する。』
まあ何ですな、貸出と違って債券ポートフォリオに関しては(こちらの説明で引用していない部分に指摘されていますが)イールドカーブ形状の変化に対して動態的に変化していくものでして、シナリオの期間が1年間という中でポートの構成が不変という置き自体が動態的な観点からすると非現実的だとは思うのですが、結論部分を見ますと静態的に見た場合の特性は良く示されているのかなとか思うのでありました、ということで『Tier I 比率に及ぼす影響の検証』の部分から引用。
『最後に、以上4 つのファクター(貸出金利、資金調達金利、債券利回り、債券評価額)をもとに、先行きのTier I 比率を試算する。信用リスクテストとは異なり、ここでは、運用・調達の期間ミスマッチを明示的に勘案した形で、資金利益を算出している。一方、非資金利益、経費、信用コストは、基準時点の水準から不変と仮定している。』
『わが国の銀行収益は、信用コストと株式関係損益に大きく左右される傾向が続いている。特に2000年代以降、景気後退局面において信用コストと株式関係損失が同時に発生する傾向がみられ、Tier I 資本の減少要因となってきた。その背景には、保有株式の評価差益の減少や、減損処理の厳格化のもと、企業向け貸出からの信用コストが増加するような景気後退局面では、当該企業に対する市場評価も悪化するため、株式関係損失が発生しやすいことが考えられる。とりわけ、貸出先企業との取引関係を重視した政策保有株は、安定株主として長期保有することを目的としたものであり、銀行は相場動向に応じて機動的に売買しにくい。このため、株価が大幅に下落すると、減損による損失の計上を強いられることになる。また、大口貸出先の株式を銀行が大量に保有する傾向があることも、集中リスクの高まりを通じて、銀行の損失を拡大させる一因となっている。』
声明文 [外部リンク] economies have shown moderate improvement, though limited in scope; on the whole, they still have not emerged from a deceleration phase.』(今回) 『Overseas economies have shown some, albeit moderate, improvement, but on the whole still have not emerged from a deceleration phase.』(前回)
『The pick-up in exports has moderated, and the recent reading on production has been relatively weak.』(今回) 『Exports have shown signs of a pick-up. Reflecting these developments in demand at home and abroad, production has started picking up moderately with some fluctuations.』(前回)
・・・・・・・・何かね、審議委員が地方巡業して折角こういう声を拾ってきているのに、その越えを拾った直後の金融政策決定会合声明文で金融環境についての認識を「have continued to ease」から「accommodative」に変えるってのがあたくし的には何だかな感がするのでございまして、金融経済懇談会を何のために実施しているのよと小一時間問い詰めたいと思ったのは細かいいちゃもんですかそうですか。
『Based on this recognition, the Bank has been providing support to strengthen the foundations for economic growth and pursuing powerful monetary easing. It will proceed with the monetary easing in a continuous manner by steadily increasing the amount outstanding of the Asset Purchase Program.』(今回)
『Based on this recognition, the Bank has been providing support to strengthen the foundations for economic growth and pursuing powerful monetary easing.』(前回)
ということで、前半の「pursuing powerful monetary easing」に関する表現は相変わらずの現在完了進行形で、2月の物価安定の目途を出した時の「The Bank will continue to pursue powerful monetary easing and will also engage in efforts to support strengthening the foundations for Japan's economic growth as a central bank.」が5月に引っ込んで、6月から現在完了進行形で復活するという攻撃は継続。
んでもって今回入った一文は「It will proceed with the monetary easing in a continuous manner by steadily increasing the amount outstanding of the Asset Purchase Program.」という事で、まあ基本的にはさっき話をしたアピール系の表現に見えますけれども・・・・・・
『The Bank continues to conduct monetary policy in an appropriate manner. The Bank will also do its utmost to ensure the stability of Japan's financial system, while giving particular attention to developments in global financial markets.』(今回)
『The Bank continues to conduct monetary policy in an appropriate manner. The Bank will also do its utmost to ensure the stability of Japan's financial system, while giving particular attention to developments in global financial markets.』(前回)
