『There were, as ever, limits to what monetary policy could be expected to achieve. The Committee discussed the likely effectiveness of further asset purchases, should they be required.』
追加の資産買入の効果検討キタコレ。
『Some members felt that there was still considerable scope for asset purchases to provide further stimulus.』
『Other members, while acknowledging that asset purchases had the scope to lower long-term yields further, questioned the magnitude of the impact that lower long-term yields on corporate debt and equity would have on the broader economy at the present juncture.』
[外部リンク] 26, 2012 Richmond Fed President Lacker Comments on FOMC Dissent
『"I dissented for the same reasons that I did at the September meeting.』
ということで基本的には前回の反対理由と同じです。以下鑑賞しますね。
『I opposed continuing additional asset purchases. Further monetary stimulus now is unlikely to result in a discernible improvement in growth, but if it does, it’s also likely to cause an unwanted increase in inflation. Economic activity has been growing at a modest pace, on average, and inflation has been fluctuating around 2 percent, which the Committee has identified as its inflation goal. Unemployment does remain high by historical standards, but improvement in labor market conditions appears to have been held back by real impediments that are beyond the capacity of monetary policy to offset. In such circumstances, further monetary stimulus runs the risk of raising inflation in a way that threatens the stability of inflation expectations.』
『"I also dissented because I disagreed with the characterization of the time period over which the stance of monetary policy would be highly accommodative and the federal funds rate would be exceptionally low. I read the Committee statement as saying that the federal funds rate will be exceptionally low for a considerable time after we observe a marked increase in the growth of employment and output. I do not believe that a policy conforming to this characterization would be appropriate, because it implies providing too much stimulus beyond the point at which rate increases will be required to keep inflation in check. Such an implied commitment would be inconsistent with a balanced approach to the FOMC’s price stability and maximum employment mandates. I do believe that it is useful for the Committee to characterize economic conditions under which policy would be likely to change in the future, but specific calendar dates are a highly imperfect way of doing so.』
『"Finally, I strongly opposed purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities, or MBS. Purchasing MBS can be expected to reduce borrowing rates for conforming home mortgages by more than it reduces borrowing rates for nonconforming mortgages or for other borrowing sectors, such as small business, autos or unsecured consumer loans. Deliberately tilting the flow of credit to one particular economic sector is an inappropriate role for the Federal Reserve. As stated in the Joint Statement of the Department of Treasury and the Federal Reserve on March 23, 2009, 'Government decisions to influence the allocation of credit are the province of the fiscal authorities.'』
『Let me turn now to the cost side of the equation. Several potential costs of LSAPs have been discussed.』
・出口戦略について
『One is the exit problem--that a large balance sheet may make it harder for the FOMC to raise rates when the time comes.』
まあさよですな。
『Between the ability to pay interest on reserves, as well as various reserve-draining methods that the Fed has been methodically testing, I am confident that we have the tools to raise rates. If the FOMC needs to act in the face of an emerging threat to price stability, there is little doubt in my mind that we can. As to whether we will, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly made clear its commitment to both sides of its mandate--to price stability as well as to maximum employment.』
基本的にはまあ大丈夫でしょうという認識。
・市場機能について
『A second set of costs has to do with the possible effects of further asset purchases on various aspects of market functioning, including bid-ask spreads and market depth. And it would indeed be a concern if large Fed ownership of some segments of the Treasury or MBS market were to cause market liquidity to deteriorate significantly.』
買入のし過ぎで市場の価格形成やスプレッド、流動性などに問題が生じる可能性とな。
『We have seen little evidence of such problems so far, and we continue to closely monitor market conditions. If problems do begin to crop up, we will know it, and we will be able to adjust.』
今のところ問題は無いが必要があれば政策の修正を行うと。
という2点はまあマクラみたいな感じで、この先がやたら長くてまあポイントみたいです。
・米国金利が低下するのは良いのですが・・・・・という話のようだ
『A final notion of cost relates to the currently low yields and term premiums on Treasury bonds.』
ということで、一昨日引用した「負のタームプレミアム」の話の続きだったりもするのですが。
『At an intuitive level, one might think that, for the Fed, as for any other buyer contemplating a large asset purchase, information on prices and expected returns should be a relevant factor in the decision. Said differently, the case for an LSAP might seem more appealing if the term premium on Treasury bonds were at plus 200 basis points instead of its current level of roughly minus 80 basis points.』
FEDが買う事を前提にした価格形成によって負のタームプレミアムが発生するという話で。
『However, to make sense of this intuition, we have to return to the question of why LSAPs move term premiums. One interesting possibility is that, in a world where other sovereign debt has come into question, long-term Treasury securities are uniquely able to provide a money-like safe-haven service to certain investors. By analogy, think of currency, which investors are willing to hold even at a zero yield, because of the flow of convenience services it provides. Similarly, the negative term premium on long-term Treasury securities may in part reflect the relative scarcity of this money-like asset. If so, it would be economically costly to remove Treasury securities from the system. This logic is an application of the so-called Friedman rule.』
『So a key question is to what extent removing long-term Treasury securities is like removing currency. This question is hard to answer precisely and depends on the details of how you tell the story. If you believe that only nominal Treasury securities--but not something similar, such as agency securities or AAA-rated corporate bonds--provide money-like services to investors, you can try to measure the value of these services by looking at the spread on Treasury securities relative to something else that is very safe but not literally a Treasury bond--for example, corporate bonds coupled with credit default swap protection to minimize the credit risk. Arvind Krishnamurthy and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen of Northwestern University take this approach and conclude that between 24 and 70 basis points of the yield premium on Treasury securities is attributable to a "money-ness" effect. Numbers in this ballpark suggest that the costs of further LSAPs on this dimension are likely to be modest relative to even a conservative estimate of their potential benefits.』(本当は「Annette Vissing-Jorgensen」さんのoの部分はoに斜め線の入った文字ですが都合上これで勘弁)
『For the sake of concreteness, I have couched the discussion in terms of a hypothetical all-Treasury LSAP. In light of our recent initiation of an MBS purchase program, it is natural to ask what the salient differences are between buying Treasury securities and buying MBS. In my view there are two, both of which suggest that MBS purchases may offer a better cost-benefit profile than Treasury purchases in the current environment.』
ということで二つの利点があるとな。
『First, on the cost side, I have just alluded to the idea that Treasury securities may provide money-like services to certain investors, such that removing them from the system may entail a welfare cost. Presumably, MBS are less money-like than Treasury securities, so this element of cost could be reduced when buying MBS.』
『Second, if the efficacy of Treasury purchases is diminished by the fact that many corporate borrowers already have plentiful access to low-cost funds, it is natural to focus on a sector that is more sensitive to financing costs. The housing market would seem to fit this bill. To the extent that markets are segmented and MBS purchases therefore have a more powerful effect on primary mortgage rates than do Treasury purchases, this possibility may be another appeal of going the MBS route.』
『Finally, let me touch on the implications of LSAPs for financial stability. Some observers have argued that a long period of low rates can create incentives among market participants (such as banks, insurance companies, and pension funds) to reach for yield by taking on higher levels of risk with adverse consequences for stability.』
低金利長期化による「利回り追求」の動きが金融の安定に悪影響を与えるという件ですが・・・・・・
『These concerns should be taken very seriously, and a lot of work at the Fed is devoted to monitoring such risks.』
>These concerns should be taken very seriously >These concerns should be taken very seriously >These concerns should be taken very seriously
『A short summary would be that there is some qualitative evidence of reaching-for-yield behavior in certain segments of the market, but that we are not seeing anything quantitatively alarming at this point.』
>there is some qualitative evidence of reaching-for-yield behavior in certain segments of the market >there is some qualitative evidence of reaching-for-yield behavior in certain segments of the market >there is some qualitative evidence of reaching-for-yield behavior in certain segments of the market
『Of course, the worry is that one often sees only the tip of the iceberg in these kinds of situations, so one needs to be cautious in interpreting the data.』
と、意外にこの辺強調しているのがへーという感じでした。
・とは言え今の経済状況では低金利政策が必要と
『Taking as a given that reaching for yield could be a problem, what are the implications at the margin for monetary policy, and for LSAPs in particular? First, it is just a fact of life that we are likely to be in a low-rate environment for a considerable period of time, in light of the economic outlook. It is not a choice at the margin. While we are going to have to pay careful attention to the attendant financial stability issues and be prepared to intervene with supervisory and regulatory tools as needed, I would find it hard to accept the proposition that we should preemptively resolve them by, say, starting to raise the federal funds rate today. The potential damage that could be caused by choking off the recovery is too great.』
『Second, one can argue that, by reducing term premiums, LSAPs in particular have potentially significant benefits in terms of financial stability.』
LSAPで長期金利を押し下げることによって金融安定に寄与するという見解もあるとな。
『A major source of problems during the recent crisis was the excessive maturity transformation undertaken by financial firms. Put simply, these firms were relying too much on short-term debt. One of the thrusts of regulatory reform has been to attack this problem--for example, via the constructs of the Liquidity Coverage Ratio and the Net Stable Funding Ratio that are a part of Basel III. However, a complementary way to deal with the problem is to influence the underlying incentives for short-term debt issuance. And these incentives are in turn shaped by the structure of rates and term premiums in the market.』
『As I noted earlier, a natural response for any firm facing an unusually low term premium is to adjust its capital structure by issuing cheap long-term debt to replace its shorter-term debt. It is therefore not surprising that the average debt maturity of large nonfinancial firms has increased notably over the past few years. Moreover, the same pattern shows up among large financial firms--they too have been significantly lengthening their average debt maturity.』
『To conclude, I believe that our recently announced policy of MBS purchases, coupled with the change in our forward guidance, are strong positive steps. I am hopeful that these actions by the Federal Reserve will help to give economic growth a much needed boost.』
さよですか。
『At the same time, I am keenly aware of the many uncertainties we still have about the workings of nonconventional policies, and of LSAPs in particular. As I have tried to explain, LSAPs really are a different animal, and it is important for us to try to better understand these differences, and to do our best to take them into account when making policy judgments. In short, there is a lot left for us to learn. Thank you very much.』
自分の所では全廃するけど海外に輸出という発想が素敵ですね(棒読み)。 [外部リンク] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months. 』(今回)
『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months.』(前回)
『Growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has advanced a bit more quickly, but growth in business fixed investment has slowed.』(今回)
『Growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but growth in business fixed investment appears to have slowed.』(前回)
『The housing sector has shown some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level. Inflation recently picked up somewhat, reflecting higher energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.』(今回)
『The housing sector has shown some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level. Inflation has been subdued, although the prices of some key commodities have increased recently. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. 』(前回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee remains concerned that, without sufficient policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions.』(今回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions.』(前回)
『Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective.』(今回)
『To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of Treasury securities, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities.』(今回)
『To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities.』(前回)
『These actions, which together will increase the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.』(今回)
『The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.』(今回)
・第5パラグラフ:ラッカー先生お約束の反対
票決は例によって例の如くラッカー総裁だけ反対です。
『Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed additional asset purchases and disagreed with the description of the time period over which a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate and exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted. 』(今回)
『Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who opposed additional asset purchases and preferred to omit the description of the time period over which exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted.』(前回)
『For the sake of concreteness in what follows, let's think in terms of a hypothetical $500 billion LSAP, conducted entirely by buying longer-term Treasury securities; later I will speak to the differences that arise when the program is carried out with MBS purchases. A reasonable estimate based on the literature would be that such a program reduces the term premium, and thus the 10-year Treasury yield, by 15 to 20 basis points. In my mind, this step is the least controversial piece of the transmission mechanism. Moreover, I have no reason to expect any diminishing efficacy on this market-impact dimension, so in this instance the past evidence seems like a good guide to future outcomes.』
つーことで、買入で金利が下がる云々の話をしている部分はスルーしましてその後です。
『Naturally, all models rely on a host of assumptions, so the true effect could be larger or smaller than what comes out of the FRB/US model. But I will focus on two sources of uncertainty in particular.』
でまあ米国債金利が下がるのは良いとして、その効果に不確実性がある、という事を2つ述べています。
『A first uncertainty relates to a point raised earlier--that a given impact on Treasury bonds may not pass through fully to other rates that are more relevant for consumption and investment decisions, such as corporate bond rates or primary mortgage market rates. The recent academic literature seems divided on this point, as some papers argue that the pass-through is near 100 percent while others claim that it is quite low. My own reading of the evidence is that, thus far, there has been substantial pass-through from LSAPs to corporate bonds and mortgages, and some, but considerably less, to other, more distant asset categories like equities.』
『Leaving aside this set of complications--so that we suppose our $500 billion LSAP has an impact of 20 basis points on corporate bond rates as well as on Treasury rates--there is a second, perhaps more fundamental, issue. How should one expect a company to respond when its long-term borrowing costs fall not because of a change in the expected future path of short-term rates, but because of a change in the term premium? As noted earlier, many macro models--like the Fed's FRB/US model--treat the two sorts of shocks as having similar effects. But is there any reason to believe that, in reality, the response to the two might differ?』
『A basic corporate-finance analysis suggests the answer may be yes. To see why, consider the following example. A risk-neutral firm faces a rate on its 10-year bonds of 2 percent. At the same time, it expects that the sequence of rolled-over short-term rates over the next 10 years will average 3 percent. Hence, there is a term premium of minus 1 percent. What should the firm do?』
『Clearly, it should take advantage of the cheap long-term debt by issuing bonds. But it is less obvious that the bargain 2 percent rate on these bonds should exert any influence on its capital spending plans. After all, it can take the proceeds of the bond issue and use these to pay down short-term debt, repurchase stock, or buy short-term securities. These capital-structure adjustments all yield an effective return of 3 percent. As a result, the hurdle rate for new investment should remain pinned at 3 percent. In other words, the negative term premium matters a lot for financing behavior, but in this stylized world, investment spending is decoupled from the term premium and is determined instead by the expected future path of short rates.』
『This reasoning suggests why one might expect future rounds of LSAPs to have diminishing returns. As noted earlier, the data make clear that past rounds of LSAPs have pushed down interest rates and term premiums. But the further the term premium is driven into negative territory, the more the previous logic comes into play, and hence the weaker is likely to be the response of aggregate spending to further downward pressure on long-term rates.』
『The corporate-finance example is also consistent with what we have observed in markets in recent months. Issuance of both investment-grade and high-yield bonds has been robust. Indeed, domestic nonfinancial corporate bond issuance is on pace to set a record in 2012, and the speculative-grade segment may also register a new high for the year. At the same time, a large fraction of issuance has been devoted to refinancing--either to retiring existing debt or to payouts to equity holders via dividends and share buybacks. These uses of proceeds have accounted for about two-thirds of all issuance by speculative-grade firms so far this year. Such patterns are what one would expect in a world of segmented markets and negative term premiums.』
『This caveat about the diminishing effectiveness of LSAPs can be thought of as a specific version of Goodhart's law.』
というのがあるそうな。
『It may be that under normal circumstances, changes in 10-year rates have significant explanatory power for economic activity, perhaps because they are a proxy for the expected future path of short rates or other aspects of financial conditions. But it doesn't follow that when one sets out to influence the 10-year rate directly, via asset purchases--without changing the future path of short rates--the usual historical relationships will continue to apply.』
『While we should acknowledge these doubts, it is important to keep them in perspective.』
ということで。
『In addition to lowering interest rates, LSAPs also boost equity prices and other asset values. Taken together, these effects of LSAPs seem likely to be meaningful, even if the benefits of an impetus to rates are less than in the baseline scenario sketched earlier. And to be sure, there is a wide confidence interval around any estimate we might make of the benefits.』
LSAPは株価や他の資産価格を引き上げるという効果があり、それはコストを上回る効果であると。
『Moreover, it is worth repeating a point made earlier: whatever direct hydraulic effects LSAPs create by pushing down term premiums and discount rates, their overall impact may be reinforced via a signaling effect, whereby they enhance the credibility of our forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate. Indeed, this signaling benefit strikes me as an important part of the argument in favor of LSAPs in the current environment.』
『It's a pleasure to be here at Brookings. And it's a special thrill and honor for me to be here alongside Don Kohn. One of my only regrets about coming to the Fed is my timing. I wish I had had the good fortune to arrive a few years earlier, so I could have had the privilege of being Don's colleague, and of learning from him.』
コーン理事と言えば生え抜きの大物理事というか名物理事でしたよね。
『Now I can only do so indirectly. Several of the best bits of advice I've gotten since joining the Board have been preceded by words like: "Here's what Don Kohn would have done in this situation…." So Don, thank you, and I look forward to our discussion.』
『There is a considerable diversity of views within the FOMC, and among economists more generally, about the use of LSAPs and other nonconventional policy tools. This diversity is both inevitable and healthy given the unprecedented circumstances in which we find ourselves.』
『To be clear on where I stand, I support the Committee's decision of last month--namely, to initiate purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) at a rate of $40 billion per month, in tandem with the ongoing maturity extension program (MEP) in Treasury securities, and to plan to continue with asset purchases if the Committee does not observe a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market. Given where we are, and what we know, I firmly believe that this decision was the right one.』
『With respect to LSAPs, my belief--which echoes the views expressed by Chairman Bernanke at Jackson Hole--is that past rounds of LSAPs have played a significant role in supporting economic activity and in preventing a worrisome undershoot of the Committee's inflation objective.』
『The case is especially strong with respect to the first round of LSAPs, which was a very potent policy action that helped to bring the economy back from the brink in 2009. 』
特にQE1には大きな効果があって有効でしたとゆーことですが、ここから先がほほーという話になる。
『However, we now face a harder set of questions--not about the value of past LSAPs, but about the marginal benefits and costs of further LSAPs.』
今までのは良いとして、問題なのは今後のLSAPの効果とそのコストなのですよと。
『A number of observers have raised concerns about diminishing returns, or escalating costs.』
多くの観測者は効果の減少とコスト増加の懸念を表明していますとな。
『I think that, at least in the limit, these concerns must be right; we could in principle push this tool to the point that the hurdle for additional usage would become very high.』
少なくとも限定的にはこれらの懸念は正しく、追加のLSAPの使用に関してはハードルが高いとキタコレ。
『As policymakers, it is our responsibility to be as clear as possible about the nature of the costs and benefits, and how they might evolve. In that spirit, I will try in what follows to outline the mechanisms that can give rise to decreasing marginal efficacy of LSAPs, or to increasing marginal costs.』
『While much of my discussion will focus on the direct hydraulic effects of LSAPs on the economy, it should be emphasized that their overall impact may be augmented via a signaling or confidence channel.』
なので、9月の追加緩和のキモはフォワードガイダンスですというのが次に来ますぞな。
『Another important tool in the Committee's arsenal these days is its use of forward guidance about the expected path of the federal funds rate. And a change in this guidance was a key part of the September FOMC statement, with the Committee stating that "a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens." I believe that the LSAP component of the statement helped bolster the credibility of the forward guidance component by pairing a declaration about future intentions with an immediate and concrete set of actions. And I suspect that this complementarity helps explain the strong positive reaction of the stock market to the release of the statement.』
『In addition to this signaling channel, LSAPs of course also have a variety of direct effects on the economy, as I just noted. To understand these effects, it is useful to compare them with those that make monetary policy work in normal times. Away from the zero lower bound, conventional monetary policy is thought to work via an expectations channel; when the Fed cuts the federal funds rate, long-term rates also fall, primarily because expectations regarding future short-term rates shift down.』
『By contrast, a principal motive for doing LSAPs is to influence interest rates not just through expectations, but via supply-and-demand effects in the long-term bond market.』
『As the Fed buys more long-term bonds, their price goes up, and their yield falls, even if expectations of future short rates are unchanged. Said differently, the so-called term premium on long-term bonds declines, which means that post-LSAP, long-term bonds are expected to perform less well as an investment relative to short-term bills.』
で、これまでの買入で10年金利を80〜120bp押し下げたという話の部分は引用割愛してその次。
『A central theme of my talk today is this: When policy works by moving term premiums, as opposed to moving expectations about the path of short rates, the transmission to the real economy may be altered in subtle yet important ways that can have implications for the benefits of a policy action, its costs, and even its consequences for financial stability. Moreover, to address these issues, we need to understand not only by how much an LSAP moves term premiums, but also why it does so. It should be noted that many standard macro models completely set aside the distinction I am emphasizing here. For example, in the Board staff's main model, FRB/US, a fall in the long rate is assumed to have the same effect on economic activity irrespective of whether this fall comes from the term premium or from expectations of future short rates.』
Jeremy C. Stein [外部リンク] to his appointment to the Board, Dr. Stein was the Moise Y. Safra Professor of Economics at Harvard University, where he taught courses in finance in the undergraduate and Ph.D. programs. From February to July 2009, Dr. Stein served in the Obama administration as a senior adviser to the Secretary of the Treasury and on the staff of the National Economic Council. 』
『Before joining the Harvard faculty in 2000, Dr. Stein taught finance at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Sloan School of Management. Prior to joining the MIT faculty, Dr. Stein was an assistant professor of finance at the Harvard Business School from 1987 to 1990.』
『One possibility is that the negative dynamics of a post-bubble environment are even more potent than had been appreciated. Feedback loops may be more powerful and frictions may be larger. In the U.S. case, this is particularly germane with respect to housing and mortgage finance. For example, we have found significant shortcomings in those institutional structures available to support the workout of the overhang of mortgage debt in an efficient and timely manner.』
バブル崩壊のネガティブフィードバックが想定より大きいという可能性ですな。
『A second reason may be the series of additional negative shocks experienced since the initial phase of the financial crisis. The largest of these relate to the crisis in the eurozone. But one could also add the periodic commodity price shocks, the disruptive impact of the tragic Japanese earthquake and tsunami on global trade and production, and the effect of the uncertainties around the impending fiscal cliff on hiring and investing.』
それに加えてバブル崩壊後も欧州問題や日本の震災などのネガティブショックがあったと。
『That said, the shocks since the acute phase of the crisis in the United States were not uniformly negative. Take, for example, the sharp increase in U.S. oil and natural gas production stemming, in part, from the innovations in drilling and extraction technologies. Not only does this rising production directly boost real GDP, but also the large drop in natural gas prices has significantly improved the industrial competitiveness of U.S.-based businesses.』
なるほど。
『A third reason for the weaker than expected recovery likely lies in the interplay between secular and cyclical factors. In particular, I believe that demographic factors have played a role in restraining the recovery. The developed world's populations are aging rapidly. In the United States, for example, the baby boom generation, which is a particularly large cohort, is now beginning to retire. As the population ages, this has two consequences.』
人口動態の話キタコレ。
『First, the spending decisions of the older age cohorts are less likely to be easily stimulated by monetary policy. That is because such age groups tend to spend less of their incomes on consumer durables and housing. Second, as the population ages and the number of retirees climbs, the costs associated with Social Security, government pensions, and healthcare retirement benefits increase. This creates budgetary pressure and leads to a choice of raising revenue to fund these costs, cutting other government programs, or cutting benefits.』
人口動態の影響の説明ですな。
『Now if this all had been fully anticipated by retirees and near-retirees, then this would already be factored into their spending and saving decisions. But, I doubt that this has been the case. I suspect that many have been surprised by the swift change in economic circumstances as the housing boom went bust. I doubt that many fully anticipated the budget crunch and the prospect that their future retiree and healthcare benefits would likely be curbed or their taxes would have to rise in the future. When households begin to anticipate this, they reduce their assessment of their sustainable living standards. This downward reassessment then feeds back to current spending and saving decisions.』
『A fourth reason why the recovery has been slower than expected may be that we overestimated the capacity for fiscal policy to continue to provide support to growth until a vigorous recovery was achieved. On the fiscal side, the authorities can cut taxes or increase spending to support income and demand during the deleveraging phase that follows the financial crisis. But the ability of such stimulus to continue to support economic activity ultimately encounters budgetary limits. For example, the need to keep the long-term fiscal trajectory on a sustainable path limits the size and duration of federal fiscal stimulus measures. For state and local governments, the statutory requirements for balanced budgets meant that fiscal policies turned restrictive relatively quickly once budget surpluses and rainy day funds were exhausted, and this was only temporarily mitigated by federal transfers to the states as part of the initial fiscal stimulus program. Fiscal policy is now a drag rather than a support to growth in the United States, and this will likely continue.』
『I would give each of these four explanations some weight for why the recovery has been consistently weaker than expected. But I would add a fifth, monetary policy, while highly accommodative by historic standards, may still not have been sufficiently accommodative given the economic circumstances.』
『Now let me be clear. I believe the evidence overwhelmingly indicates that our monetary policy has been effective in easing financial conditions and supporting economic activity.』
まあこうやって金融政策限界論は否定するのは雨人クオリティではあります。
『After reducing the traditional policy tool, the target for the overnight federal funds rate, to close to zero, the Fed has aggressively employed two complementary types of non-traditional tools?asset purchases and forward guidance on the policy rate-to provide additional stimulus through their effects on long term rates and various risk premia.』
『Effective forward guidance on interest rates causes market participants to lower their expectations and uncertainty about future path of interest rates and to anticipate that easier financial conditions will persist well in to the future. This pushes down the yield curve and leads to easier financial conditions.』
『Federal Reserve asset purchases also make financial conditions more accommodative. Such purchases, by taking duration out of private hands, push down term premia and lead to lower long-term rates than would otherwise be the case for any given economic outlook. Agency MBS (mortgage-backed securities) purchases absorb prepayment risk and reduce secondary and primary mortgage rates, stimulating demand for housing and increasing purchasing power through refinancing. Lower long-term rates support the prices of equities and housing, boosting wealth and easing balance sheet constraints, while an accommodative monetary policy stance reduces downside risks for the economy and this leads to lower default risk premia on corporate debt.』
『Our two tools work in a complementary manner. Asset purchases strengthen the credibility of the forward guidance on interest rates, while forward guidance provides information about how long the FOMC is likely to hold on to the assets it purchases.』
この辺は今やっている資産買入やらフォワードガイダンスやらが効果を出しているという話ね。
『My conclusion is that the easing of financial conditions resulting from non-traditional policy actions has had a material effect on both nominal and real growth and has demonstrably reduced the risk of particularly adverse outcomes. Nevertheless, I also conclude that, with the benefit of hindsight, monetary policy needed to be still more aggressive. Consequently, it was appropriate to recalibrate our policy stance, which is what happened at the last FOMC meeting.』
『As I argued in a recent speech, simple policy rules, including the most popular versions of the Taylor Rule, understate the degree of monetary support that may be required to achieve a given set of economic objectives in a post-financial crisis world. That is because such rules typically do not adjust for factors such as a time-varying neutral real interest rate, elevated risk spreads, or impaired transmission channels that can undercut the power of monetary policy.』
『One reason that monetary policy may have been less powerful than normal is that one of the primary channels through which monetary policy influences the real economy-housing finance-has been partially impaired. This has both quantity and price dimensions.』
『Credit availability to households with lower-rated credit scores remains limited and households with homes that have fallen sharply in value have lost most or all of their home equity and this makes it very difficult for them to refinance these mortgages.』
『Another reason why monetary policy has become less effective in stimulating the economy is because the impetus from a given level of monetary accommodation likely has become attenuated-that is, less powerful-over time. Historically, attenuation has not been important because monetary policy typically has not stayed exceptionally easy for long periods of time. But this time is different and that difference may be important.』
バンバン緩和したので段々緩和の効果が薄められてくるとかそんな事を仰せのようです。
『So how might the monetary policy impulse on economic activity have become attenuated over time? I would suggest two potential channels.』
『The first channel is that monetary policy works, in part, by changing the timing of purchase decisions. If interest rates decline, the drop in financing costs may induce some households to buy a motor vehicle or purchase a home now rather than in the future. Of course, if the car or home is purchased today, this will borrow at least a portion of those sales from the future. There is a limit to how many cars and homes most people will want to buy, given their budget constraints. In this case, as the stimulus from the policy stays in place, the impulse on economic growth will gradually "wear off" as there are fewer and fewer households who can be induced to pull their future planned purchases forward to the present. The same argument applies to mortgage refinancing activity. The stimulus comes from the refinancing activity, which increases the amount of income that borrowers have available for other expenditures. The impetus to growth wears off unless mortgage rates keep dropping, stimulating additional rounds of refinancing activity.』
『The second channel is that low interest rates will gradually reduce the interest income of savers and this could eventually affect their consumption. Household interest income has fallen considerably over the past few years.』
『We therefore should aim for a more practical approach, combining various options that are known for solving the public good problem. Some public goods, such as effective supervision of globally important financial institutions, could be provided at the national level. Supranational institutions could be asked to take on specific tasks, such as monitoring global financial developments and identifying macroprudential risks, without undermining democratic principles. Private actors could be made to follow certain rules, such as the Basel rules on capital adequacy, which are in fact rules regulating the consumption of global financial stability.』
『It may even be possible to devise ways to influence the behavior of these actors through taxes and subsidies. For example, capital adequacy standards could also be seen in this light, considering that they would increase costs of engaging in riskier behavior. Some might even argue for financial transaction taxes as an option, though I do not believe that benefits would outweigh the costs, such as their impact on market liquidity. In any case, we must be willing to adopt a flexible and multi-tracked approach to global governance, which should be more adaptable to and consistent with the increasingly diverse global landscape.』
13日の講演 [外部リンク] ―アジアの視点とグローバルな視点― [外部リンク] from the Global Financial Crisis: Asian and Global Perspectives
まあ上記の講演と話の筋は同じなので、おもろそうな所だけ引用。
『第二の教訓は、自国経済の安定を確保することは、各国が持続的な成長を達成するための必要条件ですが、十分条件ではないということです。マクロ経済政策に取り組むにあたっては、自分の家を身ぎれいにすること(put one’s house in order)、すなわち自国経済の安定を確保すること、が伝統的に強調されてきました。しかし、そうした各国の政策対応を単純に積み上げただけでは、世界全体にとって最適な結果になるとは限りません。各国の政策担当者が自国の立場から見て合理的に行動しているとしても、全体としては「合成の誤謬」が生じるリスクがあります。』
『In fact, over the last five years, there were only occasional glimmers of hope. Nevertheless, in light of the experience of the bursting of the Japanese bubble, I had always been a little skeptical and suspected that those glimmers might just be false dawns.』
『That’s a brief review of the past five years. Real output has grown over the past three years, but remains well below what one would expect in light of historical growth patterns in the United States. Unemployment remains well above 2007 levels.』
GDPに関しては上記の通り。
『Inflation is below the Fed’s target inflation rate of 2 percent. 』
長くなるので物価推移の方は引用しませんでしたが詳細は本文ご覧ください。
『What do these data imply about the appropriate stance of monetary policy?』
キタコレ。
『The FOMC has two mandates-to promote price stability and to promote maximum employment. Whenever an organization has two goals, it is logically possible that those goals may conflict. Indeed, many observers have expressed exactly this concern about the FOMC’s current position. 』
『The unemployment rate is elevated above a level that the Committee sees as consistent with its employment mandate. Most FOMC participants’ medium-term outlooks for PCE inflation are at 2 percent or below. These observations imply that, by increasing monetary accommodation, the Committee can better meet its employment mandate while still satisfying its price stability mandate.』
『To understand this critical point, consider two possible scenarios. In the first, the public believes that the FOMC will initiate liftoff once the unemployment rate hits 7 percent. In the second, the public believes that the FOMC will defer initiation of liftoff until the unemployment rate hits 6 percent. The higher unemployment rate in the first scenario means that monetary policy will be tightened sooner, which, in turn, will lead to the unemployment rate being higher for longer. Foreseeing that, people will save more in the first scenario than in the second, to protect themselves against these higher unemployment risks. Because they save more, they spend less, and there is less economic activity. In other words, the FOMC can provide more current stimulus if people believe that liftoff will be triggered by a lower unemployment rate.』
『As discussed earlier, by “satisfy its price stability mandate,” I mean that longer-term inflation expectations are stable, and the Committee’s outlook is that the annual inflation rate in two years will be within a quarter of a percentage point of the target inflation rate of 2 percent.』
『Why is this liftoff plan an appropriate one? I argued earlier that the FOMC can provide more current stimulus by using a lower unemployment rate threshold for liftoff. Of course, additional monetary stimulus will give rise to more inflationary pressures, and those pressures are problematic because they could lead the FOMC to violate its price stability mandate.』
とは言ってますが・・・・・
『However, in my view, the Committee should choose the lowest unemployment rate threshold that it sees as unlikely to generate a violation of the price stability mandate. 』
『Before concluding, I want to be clear about the economic mechanism by which the proposed liftoff plan generates stimulus.』
キタコレ。
『First, it does not generate stimulus by having the FOMC tolerate higher rates of inflation, as has been espoused by many observers. I am doubtful about the efficacy of the inflation-based approach. I suspect that many households would believe that their wage increases would not keep up with the higher anticipated inflation rates. Those households would save more and spend less-exactly the opposite of the policy’s aim. In any event, I think that this approach is a risky one for central banks to use, because it requires them to raise inflation expectations-but not too much.』
高インフレを許容する訳では無いし、そもそも高インフレになった場合はやはり経済に悪影響でしょと。
『Thus, the liftoff plan that I’ve discussed only applies when the FOMC satisfies its price stability mandate. How then does the proposed liftoff plan generate stimulus? The plan recommends that the FOMC clearly communicate its intention to pursue policies that are fully supportive of much higher levels of economic activity. Thus, the plan commits to keeping the fed funds rate extraordinarily low until the unemployment rate is much nearer historical norms, as long as inflation remains under control.』
『With that commitment, households can anticipate a lower path for unemployment, and they can save less to guard against the risk of job loss. People will spend more today, and that will drive up economic activity.』
『President Charles Evans of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago has also proposed what I’m calling a liftoff plan. As I said last year in answer to a media query, I very much liked his approach to thinking about the problem. Those familiar with his plan will see that my thinking has been greatly influenced by his. This is perhaps hardly surprising, since he sits next to me at every FOMC meeting!』
『I first described the ideas in this speech about three weeks ago, in Ironwood, Michigan. It evinced mixed reactions. Some observers felt that the proposed liftoff plan was dovish, in the sense that it seemed to put a lot of weight on the employment mandate. Others argued that the plan was hawkish, in the sense that it put a lot of weight on the price stability mandate.』(10月10日講演より、以下同様)
『I think that this dispersion of views reflects a simple fact: The plan is neither hawkish nor dovish.』
そ、そうなのか・・・・・・・
『The terms “hawkish” and “dovish” presume that the Committee faces a tension between its two mandates. But the Committee does not see any tension between its two mandates now. And its long-run unemployment forecasts suggest that it does not anticipate any tension between the two mandates until the unemployment rate is considerably lower.』
『The liftoff plan in this speech essentially says that as long as the Committee continues to perceive no tension between its mandates, it should not begin to raise the fed funds rate. I see this plan as providing an appropriate policy framework regardless of how the data evolve over time or how one approaches the two mandates of the FOMC.』
『As long as the FOMC satisfies its price stability mandate, it should keep the fed funds rate extraordinarily low until the unemployment rate has fallen below 5.5 percent.』
『The fed funds rate is a short-term interbank lending rate that is the FOMC’s usual vehicle for influencing credit conditions. I’ll be much more precise later about the meaning of the phrase “satisfies its price stability mandate.” Briefly, though, I mean that longer-term inflation expectations are stable and that the Committee’s medium-term outlook for the annual inflation rate is within a quarter of a percentage point of its target of 2 percent.』
『The substance of this liftoff plan is that, as long as longer-term inflation expectations remain stable, the Committee will not raise the fed funds rate unless the medium-term outlook for the inflation rate exceeds a threshold value of 2 1/4 percent or the unemployment rate falls below a threshold value of 5.5 percent.』
ということで、先ほどの文言の説明ですな。
『Note that neither of these thresholds should be viewed as triggers-that is, once the relevant cutoffs are crossed, the Committee retains the option of either keeping the fed funds rate extraordinarily low or raising the fed funds rate.』
『Thus, my proposed liftoff plan contains a specific definition of the phrase “a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens.” In my talk, I will argue that this specificity-about an event that may not take place for four or more years-will provide needed current stimulus to the economy.』
『In contrast, the January statement does provide a specific definition of price stability as representing a goal, over the longer run, of 2 percent inflation. But there are a couple of reasons why this definition of price stability is not as operational as one might like.』
『One issue is that monetary policy affects inflation with lags. Policymakers are generally thinking about making current choices so as to influence the annual inflation rate in about two years’ time. Thus, monetary policy choices made toward the end of 2012 should be evaluated in terms of their impact on the annual inflation rate in the calendar year 2014. As a result, policymakers’ choices are shaped by what I will call the medium-term outlook for the inflation rate-that is, the forecast for the annual inflation rate in two years.』
『A second operational issue is that in some circumstances, it may be appropriate to follow policies that lead the medium-term outlook for inflation to deviate from the long-run target.』
2%からある程度の逸脱は問題ないというお話。
『Indeed, most central banks-including ones that do not have an employment mandate-find that this kind of flexibility is desirable. Of course, the public may cease to regard 2 percent as a meaningful long-run target if it sees too much of a gap between 2 percent and the Committee’s medium-term outlook for inflation. A key question is: How much leeway around 2 percent is appropriate?』
『The Committee has made no formal decision about this issue, and my own thinking continues to evolve. But I currently believe that allowing the medium-term outlook for inflation to deviate from 2 percent by a quarter of a percentage point in either direction would provide sufficient flexibility to the Committee, while posing no threat to the credibility of the long-run target. I’ll provide more details on my thinking about this issue later in the talk.』
図はこちら。 [外部リンク] proposed liftoff plan does allow the FOMC to contemplate raising the fed funds rate if the Committee’s medium-term inflation outlook rises above 2 1/4 percent. However, the following chart shows that recent historical evidence suggests that this possibility is unlikely to occur.』
『It documents that the medium-term inflation outlook has not risen above 2 1/4 percent in the last 15 years. Thus, this historical evidence suggests that, as long as the unemployment rate remains above 5.5 percent, it seems unlikely that the price stability mandate would be violated.』
『Strictly speaking, the chart does not depict the FOMC’s medium-term outlook for the PCE inflation rate, because the Committee does not formulate a collective quantitative outlook. Instead, for the period 1997-2006, the chart depicts the medium-term outlook for PCE inflation prepared for December FOMC meetings by Federal Reserve staff (Greenbook). Beginning in 2007, FOMC participants released summary information about their projections for inflation conditioned on their individual assessments of appropriate policy. The chart depicts the midpoint of the central tendency of those medium-term outlooks (Summary of Economic Projections, or SEP) for inflation from the fourth quarter of each calendar year.』
本文7ページの『A Look Back and Associated Monetary Policy Considerations』から。
『Economists typically measure the output of a country through its gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation-what’s called real GDP.』
実質GDPの推移に関してですな。
『This graph shows the behavior of real GDP over the past 10 years. The gray area on the graph marks the time that was dated as the Great Recession by the National Bureau of Economic Research.』
で、このグラフなのですがHTML版だとリンクがありますので貼っておきます。 [外部リンク] this time, real GDP fell by about 5 percent. The gray bar tells us that the economy is considered to have been in recovery since the middle of 2009-that is, for over three years.』
トレンドラインとのかい離に注目とな。
『But the recovery has been, at best, a slow one. The black line on the chart depicts how, as of December 2007, we would have typically expected real GDP to grow, given long-run averages. Over the course of the recession, a gap emerged between real GDP and this black line. By the middle of 2009, that gap was about 10 percent. This is not surprising-pretty much by definition, we expect a gap of this kind to open up during recessions. But, historically, large declines in real GDP have been followed by sufficiently strong output growth to close this gap within a few years. During the recent recovery, though, the gap has actually widened noticeably.』
・・・・・・・・・・えーっとですね、FOMCの議事要旨出た日の朝に無理矢理読んだのが『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』の最後のパラグラフなのですけれども、実は今回の議事要旨ではこの「最後のパラグラフ」がその前のパラグラフとセットになっておりまして、この2つのパラグラフが重要でございました(汗)。
『Participants again exchanged views on the likely benefits and costs of a new large-scale asset purchase program.』
againというくらいですからその前にもあるのですがそこはスルーします(汗)。
『Many participants anticipated that such a program would provide support to the economic recovery by putting downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and promoting more accommodative financial conditions.』
長期金利を下げることおよび金融環境を緩和する事によって効果を出しますと。
『A number of participants also indicated that it could lift consumer and business confidence by emphasizing the Committee's commitment to continued progress toward its dual mandate.』
更にFOMCのやる気を見せてコンフィデンスを改善するとかイイハナシダナーですな。
『In addition, it was noted that additional purchases could reinforce the Committee's forward guidance regarding the federal funds rate.』
『Participants discussed the effectiveness of purchases of Treasury securities relative to purchases of agency MBS in easing financial conditions.』
国債を買うかMBSを買うかという話。
『Some participants suggested that, all else being equal, MBS purchases could be preferable because they would more directly support the housing sector, which remains weak but has shown some signs of improvement of late. One participant, however, objected that purchases of MBS, when compared to purchases of longer-term Treasury securities, would likely result in higher interest rates for many borrowers in other sectors.』
『A number of participants highlighted the uncertainty about the overall effects of additional purchases on financial markets and the real economy.』
何とここで「追加の買入の効果の不確実性」とかキタコレなのですが。
『Some participants thought past purchases were useful because they were conducted during periods of market stress or heightened deflation risk and were less confident of the efficacy of additional purchases under present circumstances.』
『A few expressed skepticism that additional policy accommodation could help spur an economy that they saw as held back by uncertainties and a range of structural issues.』
『In discussing the costs and risks that such a program might entail, several participants reiterated their concern that additional purchases might complicate the Committee's efforts to withdraw monetary policy accommodation when it eventually became appropriate to do so, raising the risk of undesirably high inflation in the future and potentially unmooring inflation expectations.』
『One participant noted that an extended period of accommodation resulting from additional asset purchases could lead to excessive risk-taking on the part of some investors and so undermine financial stability over time.』
『The possible adverse effects of large purchases on market functioning were also noted.』
市場機能に対する悪影響の話もあるとな。
ただまあその辺に関しては当然ながら「制御可能である」という話にはなっておりますけど・・・・・・
『However, most participants thought these risks could be managed since the Committee could make adjustments to its purchases, as needed, in response to economic developments or to changes in its assessment of their efficacy and costs.』
『The Committee agreed that it would closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months, and that if the outlook for the labor market did not improve substantially, it would continue its purchases of agency MBS, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability.』
『This flexible approach was seen as allowing the Committee to tailor its policy response over time to incoming information while incorporating conditional features that clarified the Committee's intention to improve labor market conditions, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of the action by helping to bolster business and consumer confidence. While members generally viewed the potential risks associated with these purchases as manageable, the Committee agreed that in determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, it would, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.』
[外部リンク] Effects of a Large-Scale Asset Purchase Program』というのがあって、小見出し見た途端にカフェオレ吹いたわ。
『The staff presented an analysis of various aspects of possible large-scale asset purchase programs, including a comparison of flow-based purchase programs to programs of fixed size.』
どう見ても追加緩和先にありきです本当にカムサハムニダ。
『The presentation reviewed the modeling approach used by the staff in estimating the financial and macroeconomic effects of such purchases. While significant uncertainty surrounds such estimates, the presentation indicated that asset purchases could be effective in fostering more rapid progress toward the Committee's objectives.』
そらまあ効くというわな。
『The staff noted that, for a flow-based program, the public's understanding of the conditions under which the Committee would end purchases would shape expectations of the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's holdings of longer-term securities, and thus also influence the financial and economic effects of such a program.』
『The staff also discussed the potential implications of additional asset purchases for the evolution of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and income. The presentation noted that significant additional asset purchases should not adversely affect the ability of the Committee to tighten the stance of policy when doing so becomes appropriate.』
『In their discussion of the staff presentation, a few participants noted the uncertainty surrounding estimates of the effects of large-scale asset purchases or the need for additional work regarding the implications of such purchases for the normalization of policy. 』
さすがに「a few participants」がいやその「出口政策問題ありません(キリッ)」って大丈夫かおいおいというツッコミをしているようでございますな。
○何でこんなのが出るのかと思えば・・・・・
でまあワープしましてPDF版だと5ページの所なのですが、『Staff Review of the Financial Situation』の最後の所になりますがこんなのがあって「ほえ?」と思ったのよ。ちなみにその前の『Staff Review of the Economic Situation』も色々と面白いのですがそこはとりあえずスルーしますね。
『The staff also reported on potential risks to financial stability, including those owing to the developments in Europe and to the current environment of low interest rates.』
何とpotential risks to financial stabilityというのが報告されるとは。
『Although the support for economic activity provided by low interest rates enhances financial stability, low interest rates also could eventually contribute to excessive borrowing or risk-taking and possibly leave some aspects of the financial system vulnerable to a future rise in interest rates.』
マクロプルーデンスあるいは第二の柱キタコレ。
『The staff surveyed a wide range of asset markets and financial institutions for signs of excessive valuations, leverage, or risk-taking that could pose systemic risks. Valuations for broad asset classes did not appear stretched, or supported by excessive leverage. The staff also did not find evidence that excessive risk-taking was widespread, although such behavior had appeared in a few smaller and less liquid markets. 』
でまあ『Staff Economic Outlook』をこれまたワープしましてPDF6ページ目以降のメインイベント『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』になるのですが、ここを読んでいて先ほどの前振り部分の意味が分かったという感じです。
『In their discussion of the economic situation and outlook, meeting participants regarded the information received during the intermeeting period as indicating that economic activity had continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months. However, recent gains in employment were small and the unemployment rate remained high. Although consumer spending had continued to advance, growth in business fixed investment appeared to have slowed. The housing sector showed some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level. Consumer price inflation had been subdued despite recent increases in the prices of some key commodities, and longer-term inflation expectations had remained stable. 』
先行き見通しもまあそんな感じ。
『Regarding the economic outlook, participants generally agreed that the pace of the economic recovery would likely remain moderate over coming quarters but would pick up over the 2013-15 period. In the near term, the drought in the Midwest was expected to weigh on economic growth. 』
『Moreover, participants observed that the pace of economic recovery would likely continue to be held down for some time by persistent headwinds, including continued weakness in the housing market, ongoing household sector deleveraging, still-tight credit conditions for some households and businesses, and fiscal consolidation at all levels of government.』
『Many participants also noted that a high level of uncertainty regarding the European fiscal and banking crisis and the outlook for U.S. fiscal and regulatory policies was weighing on confidence, thereby restraining household and business spending. However, others questioned the role of uncertainty about policy as a factor constraining aggregate demand.』
『In addition, participants still saw significant downside risks to the outlook for economic growth. Prominent among these risks were a possible intensification of strains in the euro zone, with potential spillovers to U.S. financial markets and institutions and thus to the broader U.S. economy; a larger-than-expected U.S. fiscal tightening; and the possibility of a further slowdown in global economic growth. 』
『A few participants, however, mentioned the possibility that economic growth could be more rapid than currently anticipated, particularly if major sources of uncertainty were resolved favorably or if faster-than-expected advances in the housing sector led to improvements in household balance sheets, increased confidence, and easier credit conditions.』
まあ結論は声明文やSEPなどに出ているような話です。
『Participants' forecasts for economic activity, which in most cases were conditioned on an assumption of additional, near-term monetary policy accommodation, were also associated with an outlook for the unemployment rate to remain close to recent levels through 2012 and then to decline gradually toward levels judged to be consistent with the Committee's mandate.』
