本当はこれ16日に出ているものなので証文の出し遅れにも程があるのですが備忘録という事で。 [外部リンク] Committee also discussed the likely effectiveness of reducing Bank Rate to below 0.5%. Over the past few months, Bank staff had consulted with the FSA and the Building Societies Association on the possible consequences. In the light of that, the Committee had re-examined in detail the desirability of such an option.』
利下げの影響についてヒアリングとかしてるのか。
『While it would be beneficial for some existing borrowers, there were concerns that a cut in Bank Rate might prove counterproductive for aggregate demand as a whole. Staff analysis had concluded that a further cut in Bank Rate would be likely to cause a reduction in the profitability of some lenders, especially building societies, because of the prevalence of loans with interest terms contractually or closely linked to Bank Rate. That would weaken their balance sheets and they might have to respond by increasing other loan rates or restricting lending.』
『Viewed against the backdrop of the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS), and the potential for building societies to play a material role in increasing lending, the Committee judged that it was unlikely to wish to reduce Bank Rate in the foreseeable future.』
>it was unlikely to wish to reduce Bank Rate in the foreseeable future >it was unlikely to wish to reduce Bank Rate in the foreseeable future >it was unlikely to wish to reduce Bank Rate in the foreseeable future
その1とか思いっきり今日全部終わりません宣言を最初にするこのあたくし(汗)。 [外部リンク] international economy』の部分なのですけどね。
まずユーロ圏についてが第8パラグラフ。長いので途中で分割する。
『In the euro area, the composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) had fallen a little further in October and indicated a continued contraction in activity in the fourth quarter. Industrial orders in Germany had weakened in September.』
PMIが若干下がった話とドイツの工業受注が弱い話をしておりますな。
『The announcement of the ECB’s OMT programme earlier in the year had continued to compress peripheral-country sovereign debt yields. Moody’s had reaffirmed the Spanish sovereign debt rating. And bank funding costs in the euro area had continued to fall. For the first time since early 2010, a Portuguese bank had been able to issue senior unsecured debt without a government guarantee.』
『In Greece, where the situation had not improved, the Parliament had approved a further ユーロ13.5 billion of spending cuts and tax increases. A further vote on the overall Greek budget plan was scheduled for the weekend following the MPC’s meeting. Its approval would be necessary for the EU and IMF to release the next tranche of support finance.』
『In the United States, output was estimated to have increased by 0.5% in the third quarter, somewhat in excess of market expectations. Employment growth had strengthened, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 171,000 in October and data for previous months being revised upwards.』
『Signs of a modest recovery in the US housing market had continued, with increases in both home sales and prices in recent months. The manufacturing PMI had edged up a little in October.
雇用と住宅という大ネタに関しては改善の話。
『Less positively, the non-manufacturing index had dropped back, although it remained consistent with an increase in output. And capital goods orders had remained weak in September. 』
でこっちが残念な話ですが・・・・・
『It was possible that these more negative indicators were related to uncertainty surrounding the future path of US fiscal policy. The US Presidential elections had taken place during the month, but it was too early to know how the results of the election would affect the outcome of the impending negotiations over the pre-programmed fiscal contraction. In any event, it was probable that some fiscal tightening was in prospect, which would be likely to weigh on activity. It was likely that the disruption associated with post-tropical cyclone Sandy would have a modest effect on economic activity.』
『Indicators in the emerging markets had tentatively suggested that activity was no longer decelerating.』
>activity was no longer decelerating >activity was no longer decelerating >activity was no longer decelerating
キタコレ。
『In China, the National Bureau of Statistics had estimated that output growth in the third quarter had increased to 2.2%, exceeding expectations. Moreover, revised data on the composition of Chinese demand over the previous two years had suggested that growth in domestic consumer spending had held up relatively well in the face of a slowing in the rest of the economy. This would help to rebalance the pattern of global demand and to reduce the imbalances built up in the years leading up to the global financial crisis and recession. Survey data had suggested a modest recovery in output growth in several other emerging economies.』
『Her Majesty the Queen has been pleased to approve the appointment of Mark Carney as Governor of the Bank of England from 1 July 2013. He will succeed Sir Mervyn King.』
ということですが、リリースの本チャンはこちら。
[外部リンク] Release - New Governor of the Bank of England announced 26 November 2012
財務省のサイトを見ますとこんな感じ。
[外部リンク] November 2012 Governor of the Bank of England
『Her Majesty the Queen has been pleased to approve the appointment of Mark Carney as Governor of the Bank of England from 1 July 2013. He will succeed Sir Mervyn King.』
『Welcoming the appointment the Chancellor of the Exchequer, the Rt Hon George Osborne MP, said:』
ということでオズボーン財務相の声明。
『“Mark Carney is the outstanding candidate to be Governor of the Bank of England and help steer Britain through these difficult economic times. He is quite simply the best, most experienced and most qualified person in the world to do the job.』
この英国経済が難しい時期の舵取りをするのに世界中で最も適任な人がカーニー氏であるとな。
『He has done a brilliant job for the Canadian economy as its central bank Governor, avoiding big bail outs and securing growth. He has been chosen by the rest of the world to be the chair of the international body, the Financial Stability Board, charged with strengthening global financial regulation after the financial crisis.』
『Along with its central role in monetary policy, this Government has put the Bank of England back in charge of regulating our financial system so that we don’t repeat the mistakes of the last decade. Mark Carney is the perfect candidate to take charge of the Bank as it takes on these vital new responsibilities. He will bring strong leadership and a fresh new perspective.』
『I look forward to working with Mark as we continue to rebalance our economy, deal with our debts, and equip Britain to succeed in the global race. We needed the best - and in Mark Carney we’ve got it.”』
[外部リンク] of Deputy Governor of Bank of England for Monetary Stability
『Her Majesty The Queen has been pleased to approve the re-appointment of Charles Richard Bean as Deputy Governor of the Bank of England for Monetary Stability from 1 July 2013.』
『Mr Bean has agreed to stay on for a year to help oversee the extension of the Bank of England’s responsibilities and the transition to the new Governor. He has asked to stand down on 30 June 2014.』
海外からの総裁起用とは斬新とか思いましたが、良く良く考えてみるとカナダはコモンウェルスを構成する国でカナダの国王は「Her Majesty The Queen」なのでカーニー総裁も形の上では「女王陛下の臣民」なのですから英国人的な理屈からするとそんなに違和感が無い(旧属領の人を抜擢起用したとか)のかもしれませんな。
[外部リンク] November 2012 Changes to cash management operations
『On 9 November 2012 the Government agreed with the Bank of England to transfer to the Exchequer the excess cash held in the Bank’s Quantitative Easing (QE) facility. 』
『This will align the cash management arrangements for the facility with normal government practice and with the approach followed by other countries undertaking QE. On the 9 November 2012 the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Governor of the Bank of England exchanged letters agreeing the cash management arrangements. 』
『Since 2009 the Bank of England has operated QE by buying gilts and holding them in a dedicated facility called the Asset Purchase Facility (APF). These gilts attract regular coupon payments from the Exchequer. With the purchases of the APF having reached £375 billion, this Facility has now accumulated a large cash balance. As the scale and likely duration of the scheme has increased significantly since its inception, it makes sense to normalise the cash management arrangements for the APF. 』
『From now on this excess cash will be transferred to the Exchequer on a regular basis. This will improve transparency and align our practices with those of major central banks like the United States Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. 』
『At some point in the future, as monetary conditions normalise, it is likely that the cash flows will need to be reversed. Return payments from the Government to the APF may be necessary to meet shortfalls in the APF’s net income as the Bank Rate rises, or capital losses on its gilt holdings as the Monetary Policy Committee unwinds QE. The previous Government agreed that any future losses incurred by the APF will be met in full by the Government. For this reason, any net coupon income transferred from the APF to the Exchequer should be used solely to pay down government debt.』
『These changes will have no effect on the Monetary Policy Committee’s ability to set monetary policy: the APF remains fully indemnified by the Treasury and all future gains or losses are due to the Treasury. 』
ちなみにBOEのAPFの説明のページが [外部リンク] of cash from the Asset Purchase Facility to HM Treasury
[外部リンク] its meeting of 7-8 November I briefed the MPC on the agreement we have reached. The Committee was content that its ability to set the appropriate stance of monetary policy would not be affected by this action.』
これはさっきの財務省の説明と同じ。
『But the Committee noted that its policy setting would need to take account of the effect of this action, which amounts to a small loosening of monetary conditions.』
どう見てもただの両建て解消にしか見えないのですけれども・・・・・・・・・
『This is because, as the Committee noted, your intention is to use any funds transferred to the Exchequer to reduce the stock of outstanding government debt. As a result the private sector will hold fewer gilts and more money than otherwise. That implies an easing in monetary conditions relative to the present position in which the coupon payments are held on deposit by the APF. The Committee therefore views the use of coupon income to reduce the stock of outstanding gilts as having an effect similar to the MPC purchasing gilts of the same value.』
BOEが「an easing in monetary conditions」って盛大に言ってますからロイターの記者さんが釣られるのは致し方ない罠とは思いますけれども、これは広義の政府部門におけるキャッシュマネジメントの効率化というだけの話でありまして、これを捕まえて「金融環境緩和」というのはかなり強弁にも程があるように思えますので、最初記事読んだときにロイター何ゆうとるんじゃと思いました(明らかにマネタイゼーションとは関係ないですし、国債発行が減る方なのですからむしろ逆ですぞな)が、これは怪しげな説明を繰り広げるBOEの方が悪いわと思いました。
[外部リンク] Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』のラスト1パラか2パラを見るのがミニッツ早読みの際には重要ですのでケツ2パラ分から参ります。
『In their discussion of financial developments over the intermeeting period, participants commented on the effects of the policy actions taken at the September meeting to strengthen the Committee's forward guidance and to purchase additional MBS.』
『The initial effects were generally viewed as consistent with a marked easing in financial conditions. For example, yields on MBS dropped noticeably, leading to a decline in mortgage interest rates, and corporate bond yields generally moved lower. Yields on nominal Treasury securities were little changed.』
早速各種金利やスプレッドの低下という初期の効果が出ているとか気が早過ぎ。
『Some participants suggested that more time would be required to assess the ultimate effects of the additional MBS purchases on primary mortgage rates and on financial conditions more broadly.』
もうちょっと見て行きたいってまあそらそうよ。
『The stability in nominal Treasury yields, paired with a decline in TIPS yields, implied a modest increase in inflation compensation, on net, over the intermeeting period. A couple of participants saw this increase as a sign that the open-ended asset purchases posed a risk to the stability of longer-term inflation expectations. However, others saw the effect on expected inflation as relatively muted or likely the result of reduced risks of undesirably low inflation.』
『Participants remained concerned about risks to financial markets associated with the situation in the euro area and uncertain U.S. fiscal prospects, but a couple noted that measures of financial market uncertainty were still relatively low. Several participants pointed out that recent policy announcements by the European Central Bank were received favorably in markets.』
『A number of participants mentioned other signs of greater optimism in financial markets, including a rise in merger and acquisition activity and a moderation in pressures on large U.S. financial institutions.』
この辺は欧州問題とかフィスカルクリフ関連の市場への影響の話。
『A few participants observed that low interest rates had increased demand for riskier financial products, and a couple of participants saw a risk that holding interest rates low for a prolonged period could lead to financial imbalances and imprudent risk-taking. One participant, however, commented that risk aversion still seemed quite high, citing the very low yields on longer-term TIPS and a large estimated risk premium in equity markets.』
『Participants also discussed the efficacy and potential costs of the Committee's asset purchases.』
ほう。
『A number of participants offered the assessment that the Committee's policy actions, to date, had been effective in making financial conditions more accommodative and that lower interest rates were providing support to aggregate spending, most notably in areas such as housing, autos, and other consumer durables.』
『In particular, some pointed out that the favorable developments in mortgage markets over the intermeeting period suggested that the MBS purchases were likely to reinforce the nascent recovery in the housing market. Several added that, based on the experience with earlier asset purchases, the broader effects on economic activity from more-accommodative financial conditions were likely to accrue over time.』
『Looking ahead, a number of participants indicated that additional asset purchases would likely be appropriate next year after the conclusion of the maturity extension program in order to achieve a substantial improvement in the labor market. In that regard, a couple of participants noted the likely usefulness of clarifying the range of indicators that would be evaluated in assessing the outlook for the labor market.』
『Participants generally agreed that in determining the appropriate size, pace, and composition of further purchases, they would need to carefully assess the efficacy of asset purchases in fostering stronger economic activity and consider the potential risks and costs of such purchases.』
『Several participants questioned the effectiveness of the current purchases or whether a continuation of them would be warranted if the recent moderate pace of economic recovery were sustained.』
一方で効果について疑問を呈する人も複数名いますぞな。
『In addition, several participants expressed concerns that sizable asset purchases might eventually have adverse consequences for the functioning of asset markets or that they might complicate the Committee's ability to remove policy accommodation at the appropriate time and normalize the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. A couple of participants noted that an extended period of policy accommodation posed an upside risk to inflation.』
[外部リンク] and Forward Guidance』という事で「閾値とフォワードガイダンス」という小見出しの部分があるのですな。
『A staff presentation focused on the potential effects of using specific threshold values of inflation and the unemployment rate to provide forward guidance regarding the timing of the initial increase in the federal funds rate.』
『The presentation reviewed simulations from a staff macroeconomic model to illustrate the implications for policy and the economy of announcing various threshold values that would need to be attained before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would consider increasing its target for the federal funds rate.』
『Meeting participants discussed whether such thresholds might usefully replace or perhaps augment the date-based guidance that had been provided in the policy statements since August 2011.』
『Participants generally favored the use of economic variables, in place of or in conjunction with a calendar date, in the Committee's forward guidance, but they offered different views on whether quantitative or qualitative thresholds would be most effective.』
『Many participants were of the view that adopting quantitative thresholds could, under the right conditions, help the Committee more clearly communicate its thinking about how the likely timing of an eventual increase in the federal funds rate would shift in response to unanticipated changes in economic conditions and the outlook. Accordingly, thresholds could increase the probability that market reactions to economic developments would move longer-term interest rates in a manner consistent with the Committee's view regarding the likely future path of short-term rates.』
『A number of other participants judged that communicating a careful qualitative description of the indicators influencing the Committee's thinking about current and future monetary policy, or providing more information about the Committee's policy reaction function, would be more informative than either quantitative thresholds or date-based forward guidance.』
『Several participants were concerned that quantitative thresholds could confuse the public by giving the impression that the FOMC focuses on a small number of economic variables in setting monetary policy, when the Committee in fact uses a wide range of information. Some other participants worried that the public might mistakenly interpret quantitative thresholds as equivalent to the Committee's longer-run objectives or as triggers that, when reached, would prompt an immediate rate increase; but it was noted that the Chairman's postmeeting press conference and other venues could be used to explain the distinction between thresholds and these other concepts. 』
『Participants generally agreed that the Committee would need to resolve a number of practical issues before deciding whether to adopt quantitative thresholds to communicate its thinking about the timing of the initial increase in the federal funds rate.』
『These issues included whether to specify such thresholds in terms of realized or projected values of inflation and the unemployment rate and, in either case, what values for those thresholds would best balance the Committee's objectives of promoting maximum employment and price stability.』
『Another open question was whether to supplement thresholds expressed in terms of the unemployment rate and inflation with additional indicators of economic and financial conditions that might signal a need either to raise the federal funds rate before a threshold is crossed or to delay until well afterward.』
『A final question was whether the statement should also provide forward guidance about the likely path of the federal funds rate after the initial increase. It was noted that such guidance could have significant effects on financial conditions and the economy.』
『At the conclusion of the discussion, the Chairman asked the staff to provide additional background material, taking into account the range of participants' views.』
今日は最初と最後をネタにするという変則攻撃ですが(^^)、票決の後に『Discussion of Communications regarding Economic Projections』というコーナーがありましたのでそちらもネタに。
『A staff presentation reviewed the results of the consensus forecast experiments that the Committee conducted in conjunction with its August and September meetings.』
コンセンサスフォーキャストの出し方についての議論も続いているようで。
『The briefing highlighted the important role of the assumed path for monetary policy in constructing a consensus forecast and reviewed several alternative approaches for setting such a path. As a possible alternative to a consensus forecast, the staff presentation also discussed potential enhancements to the SEP.』
『In their discussion, participants agreed that FOMC communications could be enhanced by clarifying the linkage between participants' economic forecasts, including the underlying policy assumptions, and the Committee's policy decision as expressed in the postmeeting statement. However, most participants judged that, given the diversity of their views about the economy's structure and dynamics, it would be difficult for the Committee to agree on a fully specified longer-term path for monetary policy to incorporate into a quantitative consensus forecast in a timely manner, especially under present conditions in which the policy decision comprises several elements.』
『Participants agreed to continue to explore ways to increase transparency and clarity in the Committee's policy communications, and they indicated a willingness to look into modifications to the SEP. At the end of the discussion, the Chairman asked the subcommittee on communications to explore potential approaches to providing more information about the Committee's collective judgment regarding the economic outlook and appropriate monetary policy through the SEP.』
