『It is arguable that monetary policy paid insufficient heed to the potential impact of such financial vulnerabilities.』
でまあ金融システムの安定という意味での配慮が従来は不十分だったという事は論議に値すると。
『Financial shocks are costly because their effects can be too rapid for policy easily to offset, and because they hit potential supply so creating a trade-off between output and inflation.』
さいですな。
『In other words, the Taylor frontier is less favourable (further from the origin), when account is taken of financial shocks, than we might have believed. Taking the entire period of inflation targeting - including the recent past - might give a more accurate indication of where this ‘Minsky-Taylor’ frontier lies than using data for the Great Stability period alone (Chart 4).』
でまあ修正テイラールールでの考察が必要ですなという話です。
『What implications does this have for monetary policy? Possibly none - if we can rely now on macroprudential tools to ensure financial sector resilience. But set those tools to one side for a moment. Monetary policy could be used to reach a point more like P in Chart 5, with less variation in the output gap and more variation in inflation than we have actually experienced over the past 20 years. Put another way, higher interest rates in the run up to the financial crisis might have reduced the impact of the subsequent bust, at the cost of below-target inflation and below-trend output before the crisis hit.』
『In practice new macroprudential tools and better micro-prudential supervision will improve the possibilities available to monetary policymakers. Having additional instruments in effect brings about a favourable shift in the Minsky-Taylor frontier (or surface) which defines the possibilities open to policymakers.』
まあこの辺の距離感が各国中銀の色々な人の間でも色々な見解があって中々集約しませんよね。
『Nevertheless, consistent with the new remit given to the Monetary Policy Committee by the UK Government last month, the experience of recent years suggests that there may be circumstances in which it is justified to aim off the inflation target for a while in order to moderate the risk of financial crises.』
『Two limits are relevant in current circumstances.』
ちなみにこれは英国の例ね。
『First, no matter how much liquidity is thrown at the banking system, lending and the economy will not recover if the banking system is inadequately capitalised and suffering from excessive leverage. That is why the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee has placed weight on the need for the weaker UK banks to raise capital. It is not surprising that the more strongly capitalised banks in the UK are expanding lending and the poorly capitalised banks are contracting lending.』
『Second, there are limits on the ability of domestic monetary policy to expand real demand in the face of the need for changes in the real equilibrium of the economy.』
『I do not believe that the present problems in the United Kingdom stem only from a large negative shock to aggregate demand. In common with many other countries, our problems also reflect the underlying need to rebalance our economy, requiring a reallocation of resources both within and between nations. 』
ということで経済のリバランスが必要との認識。
『It is not simply a question of boosting aggregate demand, but of helping to bring about a shift to a new equilibrium. That in turn implies the need for both large changes in relative prices, especially between tradable and non-tradable goods and services, and a shift in the relative levels of domestic demand at home and overseas. There are, therefore, limits on what any one country’s domestic monetary policies can achieve without the support of others.』
『Despite these limits, circumstances have demanded that central banks take extraordinary measures. Such measures can risk moving into territory more normally associated with fiscal policy and, in doing so, put at risk their hard-won independence. There are, it seems to me, three threats to central bank independence.』
『First, there is the risk of appearing to promise too much or allowing too much to be expected of us.』
麿が憑依してませんか???
『With constraints on other policy instruments, central banks are seen as “the only game in town”. But failure to make clear the limits to monetary policy risks disillusionment with central banks and the inevitable political pressure on them that would follow.』
これは白川さん在任中に言ってあげてよ・・・・・・・
『Second, at the zero lower bound there is no clear distinction between monetary and fiscal policy. But it is still important to ensure that central banks do not take on to their balance sheets risks to the taxpayer that are properly matters that should be decided by elected politicians.』
『To ensure price stability in the long run it is vital to maintain the operational independence of a central bank. Any decisions that put taxpayers’ money at risk must be made by finance ministries, and central banks must protect their balance sheets by imposing appropriate haircuts on collateral, and avoiding the purchase of risky private-sector assets.』
まあさいですな。
『Third, and important even when we move away from the zero lower bound, the expansion of central bank responsibilities to include macroprudential policy and, in the case of the Bank of England, responsibility for regulating the banking system, has made independence much harder to define.』
まあ確かにそうですとしか。
『The deployment of responsibilities outside monetary policy cannot be divorced from the government in the same way as is possible for monetary policy. For example, in the area of financial stability and banking supervision, there will be times when public funds may be put at risk when rescuing or resolving a failing institution - and that decision is properly one for the finance ministry.』
『It is far from straightforward for a central bank governor to be completely independent in terms of monetary policy, somewhat independent in terms of financial stability, and not at all independent in terms of operations that risk taxpayers’ money.』
[外部リンク] Monetary policy: many targets, many instruments. Where do we stand?
Remarks given by Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England At the IMF Conference on ‘Rethinking Macro Policy II: First Steps and Early Lessons’, Washington DC 16 April 2013
本文は4ページ少々なのでまあそんなに長くない。
・冒頭から
『The past five years have been an extraordinary period for central banks. The breadth and scale of our operations have expanded in ways that were previously unimaginable as we responded to a crisis in the banking sector and the wider economy. In monetary policy, we have moved into uncharted territory. But has our notion of what central banks should do, and how, changed? Now is a good time to reflect on where we stand.』
『I want to focus my remarks on two areas. First, I want to draw out what have we learned about the objectives of monetary policy. Second, I want to reflect on the implications of the proliferation of instruments that have been used to meet those objectives.』
『For over thirty years the objective of central banks was clear. It was to set monetary policy to achieve longrun price stability. But the events of the past five years have raised questions about how central banks manage the trade-offs between price stability, output stability and financial stability in order to meet our overall macroeconomic objectives.』
『Throughout the era of inflation targeting, the importance of the trade-off between output and inflation stabilisation in the short term has been well understood. Monetary policy was seen as aiming at a target for inflation in the long run, which was to be achieved by bringing inflation back to target over a suitable time horizon so as to avoid excessive volatility of real variables such as output and employment. Optimal monetary policy was seen as a choice of how best to navigate the short-run trade-off while ensuring that the long-run objective was met.』
まあ勿論従来からその辺の考慮が必要という考えはありましたとは仰っていますな。
『Failure to deliver price stability is costly, as UK experience amply demonstrates. Chart 1 shows the variance of inflation and of the output gap in the UK, using quarterly data for two periods. Contrast the performance in the 35 years up to 1992 with the first 15 years of inflation targeting.』
インフレターゲットの過去のパフォーマンスという点では当然ながらその成果を強調。
『Better policy can take some credit for this improvement, as the anchoring of inflation expectations led to a huge reduction in inflation volatility. It was tempting to think that we had moved onto the ‘Taylor frontier’ - which maps feasible combinations of the smallest variances of the output gap and inflation. The Great Stability appeared to be a permanent break from earlier periods - periods when monetary policy exhibited more unpredictable behaviour and left theeconomy to the north-east of the Taylor frontier (Chart 2). And in one important sense it was - the dark days of double-digit inflation were consigned to the past.』
『But the Great Stability was not representative of a new normal.』
キタコレ。
『The variance of the output gap - though not inflation - has been much higher over the past five years as the financial crisis generated a deep recession (Chart 3). So what have we learned?』
ということで2008年以降はまた新たなステージになっているという事ですが。
『The banking and broader economic crisis has demonstrated that macroeconomic policy can face an additional trade-off between ensuring the soundness of the financial system in the medium term, and keeping output in line with potential output and inflation on target in the near term.』
『Let me give three examples of the sort of underlying mechanisms at play.』
ふむ。
『First, persistent misperceptions of future spending power may generate a mix of demand that proves to be unsustainable. I believe this was an important factor underlying the crisis. Although output in deficit countries - like the UK - appeared to be growing at a sustainable rate, that gave a misleading impression of the sustainability of the Great Stability. In fact the level of domestic demand was too high and the level of net exports correspondingly too weak.』
『Second, as Hyman Minsky described, periods of stability encourage exuberance in credit markets, leading eventually to instability. And third, low short-term policy rates may encourage investors to take on more risk than they would otherwise accept as they ‘search for yield’.』
[外部リンク] News Release - Bank of England and HM Treasury announce extension to the Funding for Lending Scheme
ということでFLSが順当に延長。
『The Bank of England and HM Treasury are today announcing an extension to the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS). This extension builds on the success of the FLS so far, and has three main objectives: to give banks and building societies confidence that funding for lending to the UK real economy will be availa
[外部リンク] News Release - Bank of England and HM Treasury announce extension to the Funding for Lending Scheme
ということでFLSが順当に延長。
『The Bank of England and HM Treasury are today announcing an extension to the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS). This extension builds on the success of the FLS so far, and has three main objectives: to give banks and building societies confidence that funding for lending to the UK real economy will be available on reasonable terms until January 2015; to increase the incentive for banks to lend to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) both this year and next; and to include lending involving certain non-bank providers of credit, which play an important role in providing finance to the real economy.』
『Since its introduction in August last year, the FLS has contributed to a sharp reduction in funding costs for banks and building societies. That has led to a reduction in borrowing costs and an increase in credit availability for UK businesses and households. This is feeding through to more lending than there would have been in the absence of the scheme. But the improvement in credit conditions since summer 2012 has been less marked for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) than for larger businesses and households.』
『Three specific changes to the FLS are being announced today.』
ほう。
『First, the scheme will be extended for one year, meaning that drawings will be permitted until the end of January 2015.』
延長とな。
『Second, as part of the extension, the incentives to boost net lending will be heavily skewed towards SMEs. New allowances for drawings in the extension period will be calculated on the basis of banks’ lending behaviour. For every £1 of net lending to SMEs in 2014, banks will be able to draw £5 from the scheme in the extension period.』
『And to encourage banks to lend to SMEs sooner rather than later, every £1 of net lending to SMEs during the remainder of 2013 will be worth £10 of initial borrowing allowance in 2014. Net lending to other sectors during the remainder of 2013 will count towards the initial borrowing allowance for 2014 pound for pound. The sectoral split of lending will be published for each participating group alongside related FLS usage during 2014.』
『Third, the FLS will be expanded to count lending by banking groups involving financial leasing corporations and factoring corporations, which can be important sources of finance to some SMEs, and certain mortgage and housing credit corporations.』
『The Chancellor of the Exchequer said: “This is a big boost for the small and medium sized businesses that are at the heart of the British economy. The Funding for Lending Scheme has already reduced the costs of household mortgages and loans for businesses. This innovative extension will now do even more for small and medium sized businesses so that they can play their full part in creating new jobs.”』
[外部リンク] News Release - Bank of England and HM Treasury announce extension to the Funding for Lending Scheme
ということでFLSが順当に延長。
『The Bank of England and HM Treasury are today announcing an extension to the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS). This extension builds on the success of the FLS so far, and has three main objectives: to give banks and building societies confidence that funding for lending to the UK real economy will be available on reasonable terms until January 2015; to increase the incentive for banks to lend to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) both this year and next; and to include lending involving certain non-bank providers of credit, which play an important role in providing finance to the real economy.』
『Since its introduction in August last year, the FLS has contributed to a sharp reduction in funding costs for banks and building societies. That has led to a reduction in borrowing costs and an increase in credit availability for UK businesses and households. This is feeding through to more lending than there would have been in the absence of the scheme. But the improvement in credit conditions since summer 2012 has been less marked for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) than for larger businesses and households.』
『Three specific changes to the FLS are being announced today.』
ほう。
『First, the scheme will be extended for one year, meaning that drawings will be permitted until the end of January 2015.』
延長とな。
『Second, as part of the extension, the incentives to boost net lending will be heavily skewed towards SMEs. New allowances for drawings in the extension period will be calculated on the basis of banks’ lending behaviour. For every £1 of net lending to SMEs in 2014, banks will be able to draw £5 from the scheme in the extension period.』
『And to encourage banks to lend to SMEs sooner rather than later, every £1 of net lending to SMEs during the remainder of 2013 will be worth £10 of initial borrowing allowance in 2014. Net lending to other sectors during the remainder of 2013 will count towards the initial borrowing allowance for 2014 pound for pound. The sectoral split of lending will be published for each participating group alongside related FLS usage during 2014.』
『Third, the FLS will be expanded to count lending by banking groups involving financial leasing corporations and factoring corporations, which can be important sources of finance to some SMEs, and certain mortgage and housing credit corporations.』
『The Chancellor of the Exchequer said: “This is a big boost for the small and medium sized businesses that are at the heart of the British economy. The Funding for Lending Scheme has already reduced the costs of household mortgages and loans for businesses. This innovative extension will now do even more for small and medium sized businesses so that they can play their full part in creating new jobs.”』
[外部リンク] News Release - Bank of England and HM Treasury announce extension to the Funding for Lending Scheme
ということでFLSが順当に延長。
『The Bank of England and HM Treasury are today announcing an extension to the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS). This extension builds on the success of the FLS so far, and has three main objectives: to give banks and building societies confidence that funding for lending to the UK real economy will be available on reasonable terms until January 2015; to increase the incentive for banks to lend to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) both this year and next; and to include lending involving certain non-bank providers of credit, which play an important role in providing finance to the real economy.』
『Since its introduction in August last year, the FLS has contributed to a sharp reduction in funding costs for banks and building societies. That has led to a reduction in borrowing costs and an increase in credit availability for UK businesses and households. This is feeding through to more lending than there would have been in the absence of the scheme. But the improvement in credit conditions since summer 2012 has been less marked for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) than for larger businesses and households.』
『Three specific changes to the FLS are being announced today.』
ほう。
『First, the scheme will be extended for one year, meaning that drawings will be permitted until the end of January 2015.』
延長とな。
『Second, as part of the extension, the incentives to boost net lending will be heavily skewed towards SMEs. New allowances for drawings in the extension period will be calculated on the basis of banks’ lending behaviour. For every £1 of net lending to SMEs in 2014, banks will be able to draw £5 from the scheme in the extension period.』
『And to encourage banks to lend to SMEs sooner rather than later, every £1 of net lending to SMEs during the remainder of 2013 will be worth £10 of initial borrowing allowance in 2014. Net lending to other sectors during the remainder of 2013 will count towards the initial borrowing allowance for 2014 pound for pound. The sectoral split of lending will be published for each participating group alongside related FLS usage during 2014.』
『Third, the FLS will be expanded to count lending by banking groups involving financial leasing corporations and factoring corporations, which can be important sources of finance to some SMEs, and certain mortgage and housing credit corporations.』
『The Chancellor of the Exchequer said: “This is a big boost for the small and medium sized businesses that are at the heart of the British economy. The Funding for Lending Scheme has already reduced the costs of household mortgages and loans for businesses. This innovative extension will now do even more for small and medium sized businesses so that they can play their full part in creating new jobs.”』
『中央銀行が“solvent but illiquid”な金融機関に対して、LLR として融資をする場合、金融機関の資金流動性は確実に改善する。しかし、中銀がMMLRとして市場に資金を供給する場合には、市場流動性が自動的に改善するわけではなく、MMLR としてどこまで踏み込むべきか難しい判断を迫られる。』
『LLR の概念を広く普及させたのは、英国のエコノミスト誌の編集長であったバジョットである。彼は、LLR の基本原則の一つとして、金融システムの動揺を防ぐために、“solvent but illiquid”な銀行(支払い能力はあるが一時的な流動性不足に直面した銀行)に対して、中央銀行は貸出を行うべきとした。』
『しかし、今回の金融危機においては、金融資本市場の深化とグローバル化を背景に、システミック・リスクが、(1)資金流動性と市場流動性の相乗的収縮によって拡大すること、(2)危機の発生した一国の市場を超えて国際的な拡がりを有することが明らかになった。そうした事態に対応して、中央銀行のLLR は、「最後のマーケット・メーカー(Market Maker of Last Resort、以下MMLR)」と「最後のグローバルな貸し手(Global Lender of Last Resort、以下GLLR)」の機能を含む姿に発展した。』
その次の『Supply, costs and prices』ですが、相変わらず物価が微妙に高止まりしていて、先行きに関しても3%前後での推移が続く一方で、賃金の伸びに関しては1%台前半で推移していまして、中々生きにくい世の中でナムナムという感じですが、その一方で英国の場合雇用の頭数という点ではやたら堅調ですよね、という話がこのコーナーの前半なのですが、傾向としてはこの状況が延々と続いているという感じです。でまあその考察部分になる第23と24パラグラフが面白い。
『Productivity had continued to fall in the fourth quarter of 2012, with employment increasing as output fell, adding further to the longstanding productivity puzzle.』
『Information on the output and employment of individual businesses from the 2011 Annual Business Survey and the 2012 English Business Survey had suggested that there might have been unusually high labour retention by businesses whose output had fallen: 20% of all employment in the sample had been in businesses whose output was falling but whose employment was nevertheless broadly flat, double the share immediately prior to the crisis.』
生産が下がっているのに雇用(の頭数)は堅調推移というのが続いているのですが・・・・・・・
『In previous recessions, which were often associated with tight monetary policy, such businesses might have failed completely. The relatively low rate of company failure in this episode might therefore be one of a number of factors explaining why aggregate productivity had been lower relative to its pre-crisis trend than in previous recessions.』
何か怪しげな話になっておりますがこの次のパラグラフが更にこの怪しげな話を増幅。
『There were likely to be two broad explanations of why business failures had been lower in recent years than would have been expected on the basis of their previous relationship with output growth.』
ふむ。
『First, low nominal interest rates had alleviated the financial pressure on indebted businesses, thereby helping them to survive, in contrast to previous recessions which had been associated with tight monetary policy.』
『Second, forbearance by lenders had provided some indebted businesses with the opportunity to continue trading when they might otherwise have failed.』
レンダーが貸出先を延命させるという論点ですな。
『It was also possible that the changes resulting from the Enterprise Act 2002 made it easier for businesses in difficulty to carry on trading in current circumstances. Forbearance might have occurred because lenders had been unwilling to write off, or make provisions for, bad loans when their own capital position was weak.』
法律的な要因の他にレンダーの資本力が弱いと貸出先を延命させる傾向になる可能性がありますねと。
『But, were forbearance to cease, it was not obvious that the resources currently used by struggling businesses would necessarily be re-employed in healthy businesses.』
いやまあそれはそうなのですが中央銀行が堂々とこの話をするのが英国クオリティとしか。
『It was possible that less forbearance would lead simply to more company failures, higher unemployment and lower output.』
『Policies to strengthen the UK banking system, such as those recommended by the FPC, together with policies to encourage lending, such as the Funding for Lending Scheme, were intended to bring about a normalisation of credit conditions that would allow capital to flow to where it could be used most efficiently.』
『The Committee’s new remit, as set out by the Chancellor of the Exchequer at the time of his latest Budget, reaffirmed that monetary policy should be set to meet the 2% inflation target but in a way that avoided undesirable volatility in output.』
『The new remit also confirmed that the Committee should continue to look through temporary, even if protracted, periods of above-target inflation where it judged that cost and price pressures were consistent with inflation returning to the target in the medium term.』
『The outlook for activity and inflation remained broadly in line with that set out in the February Inflation Report. After only weak growth in 2012, business surveys suggested that the pace of expansion in the UK economy was likely to remain muted during the first half of 2013. Employment had continued to rise in spite of the weakness of output growth. Retail sales growth had been strong in February and suggested that the pickup in consumers’ expenditure over 2012 might have been sustained. But there had been only tentative signs of a generalised pickup in business investment other than by utilities and in the North Sea oil industry.』
『The impact of the euro-area debt crisis, together with the fiscal consolidation and tight credit conditions at home, were likely to continue to weigh on demand. The reaction of financial markets to the events in Cyprus had been relatively muted, although the risk that bank depositors might also face losses or capital controls in a future crisis might have increased the fragility of the euro area and the associated downside risks. 』
『The stimulus from the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) and the asset purchase programme were likely to support a gradual recovery, although there had been some signs on the month that the pace of improvement in credit conditions had eased and net lending had so far remained subdued.』
第27パラグラフが物価
『Inflation had risen to 2.8% in February, in line with market expectations. It was still expected to pick up to around 3% in the middle of the year. But changes to duties announced in the Budget and lower sterling oil prices had offset upside news from the previous month and meant that the overall outlook for inflation was similar to that published in the February Inflation Report.』
『While pay growth had been subdued, the impact of this on unit labour costs had been offset by weak productivity growth. And administered and regulated prices were likely to make unusually large and sustained contributions to inflation over the next two years or so.』
・で、どういう政策をするのよという話
ということでその次ですけど。
『In line with its remit and to avoid undesirable volatility in output, the Committee had previously judged that it was appropriate to look through the impact of these prices on inflation provided that indicators of cost and price pressures were consistent with inflation returning to the target in the medium term.』
よりフレキシブルターゲットになったんですな。
『The Committee continued to expect CPI inflation to fall back to around the target in the medium term as a gradual revival in productivity growth dampened increases in domestic costs, and as external price pressures faded.』
もはやホンマカイナという話ですが。
『The pace at which inflation was expected to return to the target was determined by monetary policy; this needed to balance supporting the recovery with bringing inflation back to the target promptly. The short-run trade-off between output growth and inflation meant that the Committee could return inflation to the target more quickly than currently expected only by taking policy actions that would provide less support to output.』
『In responding to this trade-off, the Committee was setting policy in broadly the same way that it had done since its formation.』
ということで、追加金融緩和の検討部分を最後に。
・追加緩和については意見が割れています
『Against that backdrop, the Committee examined the cases for either increasing the degree of monetary stimulus through further asset purchases, or else maintaining it at the current level.』
ということで第31と32パラグラフになります。
『There continued to be a case for a further extension of the Committee’s asset purchase programme to support other policies that were being deployed: wage growth had weakened further, consistent with there being a significant degree of slack in the economy; the prospects for growth remained subdued, especially given the continued weakness in the euro area; despite their recent rise, market-implied medium-term inflation expectations remained broadly consistent with meeting the target; and the Committee should look through temporary, even if protracted, periods of above-target inflation.』
『Moreover, it was possible that higher demand would itself push up productivity and, if that were the case, higher output need not be associated with a material increase in inflationary pressure. Further asset purchases, by lowering longer-term interest rates and supporting a range of asset prices, could facilitate a smoother path towards the economy’s new equilibrium, help prevent a more persistent reduction in spending, and thereby avoid potentially lasting damage to productive capacity.』
一方で現状維持の人。
『There were also arguments in favour of maintaining the current size of the asset purchase programme. Monetary policy was already highly stimulatory and the benefit of past actions would continue to be felt: the first rise in Bank Rate was not fully priced into market rates until well into 2016.』
『Inflation was above the 2% target, was likely to rise further later this year, and was expected to remain elevated for an extended period. Medium-term inflation expectations had drifted upwards in recent months, and a further easing might exacerbate this movement and prompt renewed weakness in sterling, with implications for wages and prices.』
『In addition, the extent to which supply capacity would respond to greater demand would depend on how quickly capital and labour could be redeployed from declining to growing businesses. This issue was better addressed by policies to improve the working of credit markets.』
ということで、主要論点としてはインフレがどうなのかいう見通しが主になっていますが、ここについては見解が割れていますなという所です。実際には6対3(Charles Bean, Paul Tucker, Ben Broadbent, Spencer Dale, Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale)対(the Governor, Paul Fisher and David Miles)で現状維持で、3の方は資産買入を£400Bilに拡大(£25Bil拡大ね)となっています。
先週出てましたけど。 [外部リンク] credit, demand and output』の途中からがまずほほうと思うのですが、一応その前の部分について申し上げますと、英国経済については4Qの成長率に関しては新たなニュースは無く、2013年1Qの経済活動に関する指標については鉱工業生産が弱めでサービス関連は強めと出ていてミックスした状態ですという話になっています。
で、その次の第15パラグラフから。
『There had been further evidence of an improvement in the supply of credit following the fall in lenders’ own wholesale and retail funding costs since the middle of 2012.』
『Some, but not all, of this reduction in funding costs had been passed through to loan rates. Mortgage rates had fallen sharply over this period, although the pace of decline had eased in March. Effective new business rates on loans to companies had fallen by about 25 basis points since June.』
『Some lenders had also used cashback deals or reductions in fees to pass through the benefits of reduced funding costs to their smaller corporate customers.』
こんなのあるんですね。
『The Bank’s inaugural Bank Liabilities Survey had suggested that lenders expected to reduce further their transfer prices - the cost charged to business units to fund the flow of new loans - in the following three months. And the Bank’s Credit Conditions Survey had indicated that lenders were expecting to reduce spreads further on secured loans to households and loans to businesses.』
『Surveys of businesses taken in the first quarter had also suggested that there had been some easing in credit conditions, although significant differences continued to be reported in access to finance between large companies, especially those with access to the capital markets, and small companies.』
『There was evidence that investment by companies with access to capital markets, accounting for roughly half of UK business investment, had risen strongly.』
『Given the aggregate behaviour of UK business investment, this would imply that investment by those without access to capital markets might have fallen on average.』
『Despite significant improvements in the price and availability of credit, there had been little sign so far of any significant pickup in net lending to businesses.』
レートの低下やアベイラビリティーの拡大が企業への貸出にあまり結びついていないとな。
『That may have reflected the usual transmission lags, but it could also point to a more fundamental change in the structure of credit markets.』
ラグがあるというのもあるが、それよりもクレジット市場の構造変化の可能性も指摘できると。
『Some contacts of the Bank’s Agents had reported a continuing lack of trust between banks and small businesses, and fears that applications for new lending facilities might result in the terms of existing facilities being reappraised.』
『Nevertheless, lenders surveyed in the Bank’s Credit Conditions Survey had reported expectations of a pickup in the demand for bank credit in the next three months. And a special survey by the Bank’s Agents had found that businesses that reported that credit conditions had loosened over the past year were expecting to increase their demand for credit over the next twelve months.』
ふむ。
『In contrast, businesses reporting tighter credit conditions were expecting to reduce their demand. More generally, business surveys had pointed to a slight pickup in investment intentions, consistent with a possible building in the demand for finance.』
ということでどうもレンダーと企業の間では認識のズレがあるようですな。
・住宅市場にはそこそこクレジット環境改善の効果が
第18パラグラフは引用だけ。
『There were some signs that the improvement in the supply of credit had been passing through to the housing market. Housing transactions had risen by over 5% in February, consistent with the growth of loan approvals seen at the end of 2012. The three-month annualised growth rate in net secured lending to individuals had picked up to 0.7% in February. But loan approvals for house purchase had fallen in January and February, possibly affected by the cold weather.』
寒波が来ると住宅の売れ行きが下がるとかどんだけ凄い寒さだったんでしょうか。
『Additional measures to support housing market activity had been announced in the Budget, although details of the mortgage guarantee component of the Help to Buy scheme had not yet been finalised. Compared with the previous three months, house prices had risen by about 1% in the three months to March on the average of the main lenders’ indices.』
でまあ詳しくは知らん(というか調べてない)のですが、英国でもHelp to Buy schemeなどというような政策を打ちこんでいるのね。
『銀行・信用金庫の金利リスク量は総じて増加方向にある。金利が1%pt 上昇する場合を想定した金利リスク量(100bpv)のTier I 資本に対する比率をみると、大手行では概ね横ばい圏内で推移しているものの、地域銀行と信用金庫では引き続き増加している(図表IV-3-17)。また、地域銀行と信用金庫の中には、100bpvの対Tier I 比率が50%を超える先もみられるなど、金融機関間のばらつきも大きい(図表IV-3-18)。』
『One participant emphasized the role of recent asset purchases in keeping inflation from declining further below the Committee's longer-run goal.』
最近の買入はインフレが低下するリスクを防いでいるという指摘も。
『A few participants felt that MBS purchases provided more support to the economy than purchases of longer-term Treasury securities because they stimulated the housing sector directly; however, a few preferred to focus any purchases in the Treasury market to avoid allocating credit to a specific sector of the economy.』
『It was noted that, in addition to the standard channels through which monetary policy affects the economy, asset purchases could help signal the Committee's commitment to accommodative monetary policy, thereby making the forward guidance about the federal funds rate more effective.』
『However, a few participants were not convinced of the benefits of asset purchases, stating that the effects on financial markets appeared to be short lived or that they saw little evidence of a significant macroeconomic effect.』
ここら辺からはプロコンのコンの方の話になりますがいきなりキタコレな。
『One participant suggested that the signaling effect of asset purchases may have been reduced by the adoption of threshold-based forward guidance.』
シグナル効果はスレッドショルドの設定で弱くなっている、というのはまあ確かにそうかも知れません。
『In general, reflecting the limited experience with large-scale asset purchases, participants recognized that estimates of the economic effects were necessarily imprecise and covered a wide range.』
『Participants generally agreed that asset purchases also have potential costs and risks.』
そらそうよ。
『In particular, participants pointed to possible risks to the stability of the financial system, the functioning of particular financial markets, the smooth withdrawal of monetary accommodation when it eventually becomes appropriate, and the Federal Reserve's net income.』
『Their views on the practical importance of these risks varied, as did their prescriptions for mitigating them. Asset purchases were seen by some as having a potential to contribute to imbalances in financial markets and asset prices, which could undermine financial stability over time.』
ほうほう。
『Moreover, to the extent that asset purchases push down longer-term interest rates, they potentially expose financial markets to a rapid rise in those rates in the future, which could impose significant losses on some investors and intermediaries.』
つーことで最初はファイナンシャルスタビリティーの話。
『Several participants suggested that enhanced supervision could serve to limit, at least to some extent, the increased risk-taking associated with a lengthy period of low long-term interest rates, and that effective policy communication or balance sheet management by the Committee could reduce the probability of excessively rapid increases in longer-term rates. It was also noted that the accommodative stance of policy could be supporting financial stability by returning the economy to a stable footing sooner than would otherwise be the case and perhaps by allowing borrowers to secure longer-term financing and thereby reduce funding risks; by contrast, curtailing asset purchases could slow the recovery and so extend the period of very low interest rates.』
『Nevertheless, a number of participants remained concerned about the potential for financial stability risks to build.』
とは言え多く(a number of)の委員はやはりファイナンシャルスタビリティへのリスク拡大を懸念だそうです。
『One consequence of asset purchases has been the increase in the Federal Reserve's net income and its remittances to the Treasury, but those values were projected to decline, perhaps even to zero for a time, as the Committee eventually withdraws policy accommodation.』
『Some participants were concerned that a substantial decline in remittances might lead to an adverse public reaction or potentially undermine Federal Reserve credibility or effectiveness. The possibility of such outcomes was seen as necessitating clear communications about the outlook for Federal Reserve net income.』
なるほどというかそんなもんなのかいなとは思うけど。
『Several participants stated that such risks should not inhibit the Committee from pursuing its mandated objectives for inflation and employment.』
あたしゃ「それはたいした問題じゃないと思うのだが」というこちらの見解に同意するものであります。
『In any case, it was indicated that the fiscal benefits of a stronger economy would be much greater than any short-term fluctuations in remittances, and moreover, a couple of participants noted that cumulative remittances to the Treasury would likely be higher than would have been the case without any asset purchases.』
まあそうですねという所ですが、この部分が2番目に出てくるというのが正直へーという感じでした。
『Some participants also were concerned that additional asset purchases could complicate the eventual firming of policy--for example, by impairing the Committee's control over the federal funds rate.』
市場現場労務者的にはやはりこの「出口政策大丈夫か」という論点が気になります。
『A few participants raised the possibility of an undesirable rise in inflation. However, others expressed confidence in the Committee's exit tools and its resolve to keep inflation near its longer-run goal.』
まあこればっかりは中々事前にワカランチ会長だが買入が進めば進むほどややこしい話になるのは確実。
『Another exit-related concern was a possible adverse effect on market functioning from MBS sales during the normalization of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.』
出口でMBS叩き売ったらそら色々と影響ありそうです罠。
『Although the Committee's asset purchases have had little apparent effect on securities market functioning to date, some participants felt that future asset sales could prove more challenging. In this regard, several participants noted that a decision by the Committee to hold its MBS to maturity instead of selling them would essentially eliminate this risk. A decision not to sell MBS, or to sell MBS only very slowly, would also mitigate some of the financial stability risks that could be associated with such sales as well as damp the decline in remittances to the Treasury at that time. Such a decision was also seen by some as a potential source of additional near-term policy accommodation. Overall, most meeting participants thought the risks and costs of additional asset purchases remained manageable, but also that continued close attention to these issues was warranted.』
『In light of their discussion of the benefits and costs of asset purchases, participants discussed their views on the appropriate course for the current asset purchase program.』
で皆さんのビューは以下の通り。
『A few participants noted that they already viewed the costs as likely outweighing the benefits and so would like to bring the program to a close relatively soon.』
既にコストが上回っているのでとっとと拡大終了しろやゴルアというのが数名(A few)。
『A few others saw the risks as increasing fairly quickly with the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and judged that the pace of purchases would likely need to be reduced before long.』
バランス拡大でリスクが高まっているのでそんなにおそくなく拡大減らせというのが数名(A few others)。
『Many participants, including some of those who were focused on the increasing risks, expressed the view that continued solid improvement in the outlook for the labor market could prompt the Committee to slow the pace of purchases beginning at some point over the next several meetings, while a few participants suggested that economic conditions would likely justify continuing the program at its current pace at least until late in the year.』
『A range of views was expressed regarding the economic and labor market conditions that would call for an adjustment in the pace of purchases. Many participants emphasized that any decision to reduce the pace of purchases should reflect both an improvement in their overall outlook for labor market conditions, as implied by a wide range of available indicators, and their confidence in the sustainability of that improvement.』
『A couple of these participants noted that if progress toward the Committee's economic goals were not maintained, the pace of purchases might appropriately be increased. A number of participants suggested that the Committee could change the mix of its policy tools if necessary to increase or maintain overall accommodation, including potentially adjusting its forward guidance or its balance sheet policies. 』
『In light of this discussion, the Committee included language in the statement to be released following the meeting in part to make explicit that the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases were conditional not only on the likely efficacy and costs of those purchases, but also on the extent of progress toward the Committee's economic objectives.』
実は今回のFOMC議事要旨は(たぶん重要な論点があると思ったので)最初から順繰りに読んでみまして、まあ確かに今回に関しては後ろから読んでしまうと話の前提が微妙に読めないままで進んでしまうのでミスリードになってしまう可能性がある点はご注意ありたいと思う(ので昨日最初にまとめをうだうだと書いたのだ)のですが、まあ備忘メモのネタにするという点ではやはりポイントの多いその前のパートを読むということで、『Review of Efficacy and Costs of Asset Purchases』からで、これがそこそこ長いのです。
『The staff provided presentations covering the efficacy of the Federal Reserve's asset purchases, the effects of the purchases on security market functioning, the ways in which asset purchases might amplify or reduce risks to financial stability, and the fiscal implications of purchases.』
『In their discussion of this topic, meeting participants generally judged the macroeconomic benefits of the current purchase program to outweigh the likely costs and risks, but they agreed that an ongoing assessment of the benefits and costs was necessary.』
『Pointing to academic and Federal Reserve staff research, most participants saw asset purchases as having a meaningful effect in easing financial conditions and so supporting economic growth.』
『Some expressed the view that these effects had likely been stronger during the Federal Reserve's initial large-scale asset purchases because that program also helped support market functioning during the financial crisis.』
『Other participants, however, saw little evidence that the efficacy of asset purchases had declined over time, and a couple of these suggested that the effectiveness of purchases might even have increased more recently, as the easing of credit constraints allowed more borrowers to take advantage of lower interest rates.』
つまりですね、『Review of Efficacy and Costs of Asset Purchases』という小見出しの所を見ますとまあ見事なまでにああでもないこうでも無いという話が展開されていて(読んでて違和感というかそれは無いわみたいな話は無い)、副作用についての話も勿論あるのですが、いわゆるファイナンシャルスタビリティーとか金融市場の不均衡みたいな話に関してはまあ一部にあるっちゃあ有るけれども注意してみる程度の話ですよねみたいな結論になっている割に皆さんの結論が思ったよりこれからのQE拡大に積極的では無いように見えるという話でして、その間のロジックがどうも見えにくいのよね。
『Members stressed that any changes to the purchase program should be conditional on continuing assessments both of labor market and inflation developments and of the efficacy and costs of asset purchases.』
状況に応じて見直すというのはその通りですな。
『In light of the current review of benefits and costs, one member judged that the pace of purchases should ideally be slowed immediately.』
どう見てもジョージ総裁です本当にありがとうございました。
『A few members felt that the risks and costs of purchases, along with the improved outlook since last fall, would likely make a reduction in the pace of purchases appropriate around midyear, with purchases ending later this year.』
A fewは経済見通しの改善と買入拡大のリスクやコストを勘案すると年央から買入ペースを縮小して年後半には買入拡大を停止するのが適切と。
『Several others thought that if the outlook for labor market conditions improved as anticipated, it would probably be appropriate to slow purchases later in the year and to stop them by year-end.』
Several othersは労働市場の改善が予想通りに進んで行くのであれば年後半に買入拡大ペースを縮小して年末には買入拡大を停止するのが適切と。
『Two members indicated that purchases might well continue at the current pace at least through the end of the year.』
んでもって2名は買入ペースは少なくとも今年一杯まで継続する必要があると主張。
『It was also noted that were the outlook to deteriorate, the pace of purchases could be increased. 』
