ブラード総裁 [外部リンク] Fed’s Bullard on Europe, asset sales and Yellen’s speech
ロックハート総裁 [外部リンク] Fed’s Lockhart on timing of lift off, ‘highly valued’ markets and more
ということでまあ簡単に(そんなにインタビュー自体も長くは無いが)参ります。まずはブラード総裁から。
・ブラード総裁は景気見通しに強気で政策運営はタカ的と
[外部リンク] 『JACKSON HOLE (MarketWatch)-For a few months now, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has been saying the first rate increase by the U.S. central bank should come at the end of the first quarter 2015.』
とありますように、利上げ時期に関してタカ的なのは今に始まった話ではありませんがね。
『That puts him ahead of the consensus of the Fed’s policy committee, which sees a rate hike after midyear. But Bullard is often ahead of his colleagues. He was one of the first Fed officials to spell out the need for bond-buying to support the economy. Former Fed Gov. Laurence Meyer ranks Bullard as the Fed official who moved markets most in 2013.』
『Bullard sat down for an interview on the sidelines of the Fed’s Jackson Hole summer retreat. A few highlights: Bullard thinks the economy is on track for 3% growth in the second half, he’s worried about the European economy. On the exit strategy, Bullard said that unlike many of his colleagues, he would be prepared to sell assets from the central bank’s balance sheet and he is worried that Congress might object to the Fed paying interest to excess reserves that the banks are holding at the central bank.』
『Bullard: Data ebbs and flows and it is hard to read. I think the tracking estimates that I’ve seen for the second half of the year are over 3% still even given the data that you’re describing, so I would say we are still in pretty good shape. We are basically on track for what we expected at this point.』
3%成長を見ているのでまあそもそも強めですわな。
『I think the important thing about inflation is that it has come up off its lows, where it was, and it has come up some. And I certainly wouldn’t expect it to go up in a straight line. So I think that story about inflation coming back to target is very much intact.』
『MarketWatch: Some Fed officials have said inflation can go over 2% for some period, that that wouldn’t be a problem because we have spent so much time below target. What is your sense of that?』
『Bullard: I actually have inflation going above target in 2015. But part of that is predicated on the momentum in the economy continuing. So we will see if that develops. But that is the way we’re envisioning it in St. Louis. So we’ll see, but that is what we’ve penciled in for our forecast.』
見通しとしては2015年は2%を上回るとの事で強気強気。
『MarketWatch: You’ve said that before in a speech in June. But you didn’t say how long inflation would get over 2% before you got nervous.』
ほうほうそれでそれで?
『Bullard: The way we have it is that it would go to 2.4% by the end of 2015 but then it would be back down at 2%. Of course that is based on some kind of optimal policy assumptions. But no, I don’t think 2% inflation is a cap on inflation. I think you are supposed to hit that on average over time, and various shocks are hitting the economy and that is making inflation bounce around. But on average you should hit your 2%.』
『Bullard: I think the biggest risk right now in the global economy right now is Europe. I am trying to understand the latest data there and the potential for further slowdown. I think this was supposed to be a year of recovery there. They’ve got some geopolitical risks weighing on that economy and I think it would be unfortunate if they didn’t get a year of growth here. So we’ll see where it goes. There again, I think the tracking forecasts for Germany and some of the other countries are still positive for the second half of the year, so we will see if that is the way it materializes. But it is making me a little bit nervous that they are supposed to be coming out of recession and maybe they are going back into recession, so hopefully that doesn’t happen.』
ということで欧州の減速リスクた、地政学リスクに起因するリスクなどに注意しているそうです。
で、出口政策運営ですけど、バランスシートをどうするのという質問がありましてその答え。
『Bullard: I think the minutes say the committee wants to get the balance sheet size to the lowest practical level and that we want it to be all Treasuries eventually. And it is not very explicit on how fast that is going to happen.』
まあミニッツではいずれ縮小して国債だけにするがその時期と規模は明示していないですから。
『In my own view, I’d like to see us discontinue the reinvestment [of proceeds of maturing securities] at some point. I’d actually prefer to do that before raising rates so then it wouldn’t be a big deal for the balance sheet but at least the balance sheet would be going in the right direction and we could say, don’t worry, we are going to get it back to normal. I don’t really see much purpose at keeping it at a very high level for such a long time. I really don’t think that is necessary and I think we could gradually let it go back to normal.』
『Bullard: I think selling has been unpopular in the committee but I think it is a perfectly reasonable way to run policy and if you did it in a managed way, then I think it would be a perfectly good thing to do-and it would help us get the balance sheet back to normal faster.』
売却はFOMC全体の中では少数派だけど「perfectly reasonable」ですってよ!!
『It would be a tighter policy so you wouldn’t want to do that unless you felt confident that you could put upward pressure on longer-term rates. But I think the economy has improved and we probably can afford to do that.』
『MarketWatch: Your predecessor as president of the St. Louis Fed, William Poole, has said he’s worried that there will be blowback from Congress on one key aspect of your exit plan, paying excess reserves to banks. He said that if rates go up 1%, the Fed will be paying banks $30 billion. Aren’t you worried populists on both sides of the aisle will oppose that?』
『Bullard: I’ve worried about that. I’ve talked to people in political circles about that. For now, they don’t seem to be focusing on it. But I am worried that when we actually get to that juncture and we start doing that we will face political opposition on both sides of the aisle and that would be very difficult for the Fed because we are relying on that tool as a major part of our exit strategy. So that argues for some kind of sales program or at least allowing the runoff of the balance sheet so that you start to get it back to normal sooner. Otherwise you are just paying a heck of a lot of interest that you don’t really have to pay.』
『MarketWatch: What would the Fed’s defense be to criticism about paying interest to banks?』
『Bullard: We’re doing it because we’re trying to meet our mandated objectives for monetary policy and we think that this is a good way to do it. But I think the optics are very difficult to defend and might get us into trouble here.』
[外部リンク] 『JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. (MarketWatch)-To find out where the silent majority at the Federal Reserve stands on an issue, it is a good idea to see what Dennis Lockhart, the president of the Atlanta Fed.』
さすがGreg記者。
『Lockhart describes himself as a “pragmatic moderate” at the central bank, looking to balance the views of the inflation-fearing hawks and the growth-promoting doves.』
ほほう。
『With the central bank inching closer to the first rate hike since 2006, Lockhart sat down to give his views on the economy, the balance sheet and bubbles. Some highlights: Lockhart thinks it is too early to know if the economy is on track after a horrible first quarter and he is open to asset sales to shrink the central bank’s $4.4 trillion balance sheet.』
『MarketWatch: As a moderate on the Fed, you must be under a lot of pressure these days. Getting pulled in all directions?』
『Lockhart: To the extent that someone who is not defined as either a hawk or a dove, or an extreme dove, is part of a debate with points of view that range from-“We should go to lift off early because there is relatively little effective slack” to those who say “we should go longer because there is considerable slack,”-if you think of that as being pulled in one way or the other I suppose it is just that I am part of that flow of debate.』
『MarketWatch: Are you more dovish than Janet Yellen?』
『Lockhart: I think I align pretty well with Janet.』
ほほう。
『What I have been saying here in interviews is that I am still looking to mid-2015 (for the first rate hike). Using a simplistic categorization that my staff came up with, I am more of a U-6er than a U-3er…』
『Lockhart: I am trying to make the point that it is early to draw conclusive notions of what is really going on. The first quarter was horrible. Second-quarter GDP growth was quite strong, but final sales was 2.3 [percentage points] of the 4%. So there was a big inventory component there.』
2Qは強かったけど在庫の寄与も大きかったよねと。
『The third-quarter tracking estimates are around 3% which is what I am expecting as a run-rate growth rate, but they are tracking estimates. In the first quarter, we were looking at tracking estimates that turned out to be tremendously off what the ultimate measured results were. So I just think you have to be a bit tentative, at this particular point in time, in concluding that we’re on the track that we need to be on to get to lift off at mid-2015 or earlier.』
『Lockhart: I think it is going to be a very gradual reduction in the balance sheet assuming a kind of moderate pace of growth and assuming no reversal in the economic performance.』
ということで、資産縮小で悪影響の無いようにということですのでブラード総裁よりはずっとマイルド。
『I think the game plan is and should be a gradual reduction in the balance sheet that will start with ending reinvestment (of proceeds of maturing securities.) I am not one who wants to rule out asset sales but I think we’ve communicated that in all likelihood we are just going to let the balance sheet run off through maturities and that is going to take a while.』
『MarketWatch: I would be remiss not to ask you about the state of financial markets as you hold a conference of the topic annually. Are there bubbles forming, frothiness to be concerned about?』
バブルまたはフロスの兆候は?
『Lockhart: I think it is hard to deny that there are certain markets that are highly valued. I think the real question is, is that so widespread-underpinned by excessive leverage-that we are flirting with another systemic event. And I am not there. But I would not deny that we have some highly valued markets.』
『MarketWatch: You are not worried about with rates so low, there is a misallocation of credit?』
『Lockhart: I try to frame this as whether there is something that monetary policy should address, in which monetary policy is the right tool to address it, because we are taking really severe systemic-scale risks. I am not in that arena in my thinking at this stage.』
[外部リンク] MINUTES OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEETING 6 and 7 August 2014
『The immediate policy decision』の所からネタのつづきでごんす。
・グローバルの全般的な状況についてとリスク資産価格調整に関して
第32パラグラフから。
『The macroeconomic news regarding the global economy had been relatively limited during the month. The recovery in US growth in the second quarter had been a little firmer than anticipated. By contrast, another quarter of materially sub-trend growth in the euro area seemed likely in Q2, and HICP inflation had fallen further in July.』
マクロ的な経済数値に関しては米国がやや強くて大陸欧州はヘッポコ状態との評価。
『There had been a number of significant geopolitical events regarding the conflict between Ukraine and Russia and also in the Middle East. The Argentinian government had defaulted on a debt payment. And a large Portuguese bank had imposed losses on some creditors and required state support.』
地政学イベントとかアルヘンのデフォルトとかポルトガルのエスピリトサント銀行の話とか。
『The prices of some risky assets, such as high-yield corporate bonds and equities, had fallen on the month. Although actual and implied volatilities across a range of asset classes remained low, it was possible nonetheless that these price falls represented the first steps by investors in a reassessment of risk appetite and a return of asset price volatility to more normal levels. Whether or not such a process would be detrimental to sustaining the expansion might depend on how gradual or abrupt it proved to be.』
『Domestically, output growth had remained firm and employment growth firmer such that productivity had continued to disappoint. Although output growth looked likely to be a touch stronger than previously assumed going into the second half of the year, it also seemed probable that output per worker would recover more slowly, with productivity growth assumed to remain below its pre-crisis rate throughout the three-year forecast contained in the August Inflation Report. While employment growth had been strong, wage growth had been weak. This had been a feature of the UK labour market data for some time. 』
『One explanation was that it would simply take time for the tightening in the labour market - evidenced by the reduction in unemployment and indications of skills shortages from business surveys - to feed into pay claims, especially if perceptions of job insecurity following the financial crisis remained high.』
『Another, not necessarily inconsistent, explanation was that there had been an increase in the supply of labour that households, especially in older age cohorts, were prepared to offer at a given wage rate. That might reflect increased longevity, recent reforms to state retirement and benefit rules, or concerns about debt levels and pension provision. This would tend to increase the degree to which output and employment could expand without generating inflationary pressure.』
『The Committee’s central expectation - assuming that Bank Rate followed the path implied by market yields and that the stock of purchased assets remained at £375 billion - was that inflation was likely to remain close to, but a little below, 2% for the next couple of years, before reaching the target at the end of the three-year forecast period. Inflation would be dampened by the effect on import prices of the recent rise in the sterling exchange rate. And a modest expansion in supply capacity would help to slow the rate at which slack was absorbed, thereby limiting the build-up of domestic inflationary pressure resulting from the pace of output and employment growth.』
『In the Committee’s best collective judgement, the degree of slack had narrowed somewhat, and the central estimate was now broadly in the region of 1% of GDP. There was, however, a wide range of views on the Committee - on either side of that central estimate - about the likely extent of spare capacity currently remaining in the economy, and also about its likely impact, and that of its components, on inflation.』
でまあ余剰生産力自体は縮小してきているという認識ですが、でもまだ物価上昇圧力を高める物ではないと。
『In the view of some members, the degree of spare capacity had diminished sufficiently that, although some slack still remained, exactly how much was uncertain enough that estimates of it were becoming a somewhat less informative guide to the appropriate future path of monetary policy.』
『For two members, in particular, economic circumstances were sufficient to justify an immediate rise in Bank Rate.』
キタコレ、というか2名提案してますが。
『These members noted that the continuing rapid fall in unemployment alongside survey evidence of tightening in the labour market created a prospect that wage growth would pick up. They noted that it was possible that wages were lagging developments in the labour market to some extent. If that were true, wages might not start to rise until spare capacity in the labour market were fully used up.』
労働市場のスラックが解消される前に賃金上昇が先に来るのではないかという見通しですな。
『Since monetary policy, too, could be expected to operate only with a lag, it was desirable to anticipate labour market pressures by raising Bank Rate in advance of them.』
『Moreover, if recent robust GDP growth rates had been underpinned by stimulatory monetary policy, in addition to a release of pent-up demand driven by reduced uncertainty and improved credit conditions, then the erosion of spare capacity would be likely to remain rapid while policy remained expansionary.』
『In the judgement of these members, even after a rise of 25 basis points in Bank Rate, monetary policy would remain extremely supportive, and an early rise would facilitate the Committee’s aspiration that the rises in Bank Rate should be only gradual.』
『These members further noted that, while there were always likely to be risks associated with the possible financial market reaction to the first increase in Bank Rate after such a protracted period, it was unclear that these risks would be lessened, and indeed possible they would be augmented, by delaying that increase.』
[外部リンク] Introductory statement to the press conference (with Q&A) Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 7 August 2014
・物価情勢がうんこである件について
まあ当たり前だが物価がヘロヘロである件について突っ込まれる突っ込まれる。
『Question: When you talk about being unanimous to do more if the medium-term outlook is too low for inflation, we’ve now got inflation at 0.4%, can you just explain why that isn’t already too low? Why that isn’t already something that should be triggering a response from the ECB?(後半割愛、というか昨日やった)』
『Draghi: (前半部分は上記質問の後半部分につき割愛)On the other thing: isn’t 0.4% low enough? Well, it didn’t really come as a surprise because, as I told you a moment ago, this data is mostly due to the changes in the price of energy.』
足元で低いのはエネルギー価格の低下によるものなのでサプライズでも何でもありません(キリッ)。
『And if we consider the HICP, excluding food and energy, we would have 0.8%, unchanged from the previous month. But having said that, there is no doubt that inflation is low and will remain low.』
『Inflation expectations, however, over the medium to long term, remain firmly anchored. In the short term, we observed a decline in inflation expectations because, as is quite natural, they are heavily determined on the basis of current inflation.』
『On a specific point that was raised by a usually accurate market observer, also if we look at five-year inflation expectations, derived from the break-even of the linkers, we would observe a 0.5% inflation expectation. This was a quite interesting point, but at least we think the calculations should be done differently. We should observe, not one issue, but the overall, the universe of issuances of linkers with that maturity. And this would show that the expectations over the five-year horizon are still anchored at 1%.』
『So we haven’t observed any decline on the medium- to long-term expectations.』
そ、そうなのか・・・・・・・・・
『Long-term expectations remain anchored at 2%. Other expectations remain anchored at the previous levels. Short-term expectations, indeed, have declined.』
『Question:(前半割愛) My second question is on inflation. The ECB staff forecasts have been persistently too optimistic on the inflation outlook.』
「persistently too optimistic」ワロタ。
『What considerations have you given to reassessing how these forecasts are being made, to get them more accurate in the future? And perhaps related to that, how big are the risks that we will see another downgrade of ECB staff inflation forecasts in September?』
『Draghi: (前半割愛)On the second question, we’ll certainly keep in mind your suggestion. And our staff is continuously improving, and we are really worried and we want to take action on this. And we’re very well aware.』
仰せの事は我々も充分に承知しておりまして今後とも改善を図りたいと存じますということですか。
『But one has to understand one thing, that the ECB was not alone in overestimating inflation.』
物価見通しに対して下振れていますが物価見通しが強かったのはワシらだけではないという言い訳ワロタ。
『And to some extent, as I’ve said many times, much of the fact that inflation has been lower than estimated and expected was due, first, to energy prices and food prices, until the third quarter of 2012 and, second, to the exchange rate developments thereafter.』
『Question: Maybe following up your statement before on inflation again, does the ECB expect that in the short to medium term there will be inflation rates going more apart within European countries? Take Germany. Inflation should rise maybe above the target of 2 %, and this is supported by higher wages you heard the debate in the last days, while other countries in the south or periphery in times of very low inflation, so good deflation, maybe, are tied with ongoing reforms. So this divergence is complicated maybe for you to interpret, but, is this an expectation of the ECB, as well?(後半割愛、というか2番目の質問に答えてない気がする)』
『Draghi: On the first part, I think your question reveals the complexity of the issue. We have countries where inflation will have to go above 2 %. And certainly the aim of the ECB, the objective of the ECB and the way price stability has been interpreted by the Governing Council of the ECB all throughout its existence, almost all throughout its existence, is that inflation should go at below but close to 2 %, and we are far from that objective.』
全体としての2%というのが目標ですので・・・・・・・・
『So any development that would bring this inflation rate towards the 2 % is welcome. But it’s not the ECB business to determine wages for the world, for the euro area, or for single countries. The wage determination is in the hands of social partners.』
賃金動向の話はECBでは如何ともし難いというのはまあそうですな。
『For the other countries, the countries that now are having deflation, the key question -- there’s no doubt that this sort of negative growth in prices depends on the lack of demand, but also on relative price adjustment. And then the key question is, is this going to be a short-term affair? In which case, it would not be a source of deflation.』
『Or is it going to last a long time? And it can last a long time for at least two reasons. One is that there are self-fulfilling expectations of continuously falling prices, which lead people to postpone their expenditure plans and, therefore, cause further fall in prices.』
『We are not seeing this sort of phenomenon at the present time. But there is another reason. What we define by a relative price adjustment often is not a relative price adjustment within certain sectors, where simply people just change prices in their catalogues. Often, it reflects a different reality where entire sectors are going to be annihilated, are going to be destroyed, and new productions have to take place, new sectors have to start their activity.』
『And this is a much longer process that doesn’t have to do necessarily much with expectations and self-fulfilling expectations, but it takes -- it may take a long time, because it takes changes -- it takes movements of factors, people from one sector to another, and we may well observe this phenomenon in the so-called deflation countries.』
『On the other point you made about what the ECB is doing, well, I listed before why the fundamentals for a weaker exchange rate are now better than they were a few months ago. I think this is quite relevant. And I listed a series of factors that I think I should not repeat now.』
為替レートネタキタコレ。
『But the main factor is that basically monetary policies in Europe and in the United States and in UK are going to stay divergent, are on diverging path for a long time, and a much longer time in Europe than elsewhere so I think that’s the point.』
『But, again, let’s not forget: the creation of better financial or tax conditions are a necessary, but not a sufficient condition for restoring growth.』
『Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. In the first quarter of this year euro area real GDP rose by 0.2%, quarter on quarter. With regard to the second quarter, monthly indicators have been somewhat volatile, partly reflecting technical factors. Overall, recent information, including survey data available for July, remains consistent with our expectation of a continued moderate and uneven recovery of the euro area economy.』
てなわけで、物価が足元弱い事に関してはテクニカルな問題ですよという話で、先行きの回復に関しては冒頭の所の一番最初にもあったのですが、「moderate and uneven」という言い方をしていまして、前回の説明だと「very gradual recovery」というような表現だったのに対して「uneven」という文言が入ったのが特色で、それ以外はあまり前回と変わった話はないです。念の為引用します。
『Looking ahead, domestic demand should be supported by a number of factors, including the accommodative monetary policy stance and the ongoing improvements in financial conditions. In addition, the progress made in fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, as well as gains in real disposable income, should make a positive contribution to economic growth. Furthermore, demand for exports should benefit from the ongoing global recovery.』
『However, although labour markets have shown some further signs of improvement, unemployment remains high in the euro area and, overall, unutilised capacity continues to be sizeable. Moreover, the annual rate of change of MFI loans to the private sector remained negative in June and the necessary balance sheet adjustments in the public and private sectors are likely to continue to dampen the pace of the economic recovery.』
『The risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area remain on the downside. In particular, heightened geopolitical risks, as well as developments in emerging market economies and global financial markets, may have the potential to affect economic conditions negatively, including through effects on energy prices and global demand for euro area products. A further downside risk relates to insufficient structural reforms in euro area countries, as well as weaker than expected domestic demand.』
地政学リスクも含めて前月の説明とほぼ同じで地政学リスクと新興国た金融市場に関する部分の接続詞が「and」から「as well as」になった位。
物価に関しても変わらなくてですね。
『According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation was 0.4% in July 2014, after 0.5% in June. This reflects primarily lower energy price inflation, while the other main components of the HICP remained broadly unchanged . On the basis of current information, annual HICP inflation is expected to remain at low levels over the coming months, before increasing gradually during 2015 and 2016. Meanwhile, inflation expectations for the euro area over the medium to long term continue to be firmly anchored in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2%.』
『The Governing Council sees both upside and downside risks to the outlook for price developments as limited and broadly balanced over the medium term. In this context, we will closely monitor the possible repercussions of heightened geopolitical risks and exchange rate developments.』
『Question: You were saying that the TLTROs would enhance our monetary policy stance. What do you exactly mean by that? And my second question is whether there is downside risk to your economic scenario having intensified, looking at the situation in Russia and the Ukraine?』
ということですが、まあ後半の地政学リスクの話はさておきまして、前半の質問が何とも(^^)。
『Draghi: Indeed, the TLTROs will enhance our monetary policy stance in a sense because they implement a significant expansion in credit.』
え????そ、そうなんですか?????????????
『They’re not really like the LTROs emergency funding. But these TLTROs are funding, they are to be used to lend to the real economy, to the non-financial companies, and especially to the SMEs.』
『We do expect a sizeable take-up. During the last press conference I think I mentioned an upper ceiling. Now, market estimates and indications by individual banks would seem to say that, overall - so not only in the first two tranches, but also in the periodic operations - a take-up between ユーロ450 billion and ユーロ850 billion should materialise.』
ということで4500億から8500億ユーロとはずいぶんレンジがありますがまあそんだけ出るんだとよ。
『On the other hand, it’s quite understandable because these are funds that are at pretty long-term maturity with very, very attractive financial conditions.』
ふーん。
『Also, let me add that the indications coming from the bank lending survey that, as I just said, show a gradual-show actually I think for the first time a pickup in demand for loans and a gradual lessening of tightness on the supply side, would seem to indicate that these TLTROs will actually happen at the right time when there is demand for them.』
『So in this sense they are, not only enhancing our monetary policy stance, but they actually would give confirmation to our forward guidance.(以下は後半部分の回答なので割愛)』
『Question:(前半は地政学リスクが拡大したら追加緩和するのかという質問ですが割愛) And talking about the ABS purchase plan, you’ve often said that this is not something that the ECB can do alone - there are many actors, many institutions in Brussels and in Basel who are looking after that. But what can the ECB do on its own if it needs to act on a relatively short timeframe?』
ABS買入に関しては関係者が多いとか言ってるの言い訳だろうという事ですねわかります。
『Draghi:(前半割愛)On the ABS, you’re right. I said that the ABS final action will depend on the action of many other actors. First of all, we have intensified preparations on the ABS, the various committees of the ECB have worked, and are working, on that. And in the last press conference I kind of listed all the areas that need work.』
『I would only add that we are proceedings with our work regardless of what the timing is for possible regulatory changes in this area.』
どう見てもやるやる詐欺です本当にありがとうございました。
『And the other news is that we are about to hire - I can’t disclose any names, because the thing isn’t finished yet - but we are about to hire a consultant who will help us to design this programme in the best possible fashion.』
『And in so doing, it would lead to a reconstruction of a market that has disappeared with the crisis, also for good reasons. That’s why we are focusing our efforts on a market which would trade products that are, as I said on other occasions, simple, transparent and real. Simple, transparent and real. Simple means readable. Transparent means that you can actually go through and price them well. And real means that they are not going to be a sausage full of derivatives, as said in a somewhat more popular language.』
『Question:(前半割愛、というかそれはそれでオモロイので後ほど)And just to get back on the ABS question, you gave some more details about the preparatory work, can you give us a sense, will this actually lead to ABS purchases? Or is this something that you will be talking about, consulting about, and may not actually lead to the ECB buying any of these things? Or are you confident that this will actually result in an ABS purchase programme? And do you have any better sense when that might be?』
ニヤニヤ。
『Draghi: The second question is, in a sense, either strange or easy to answer.』
ほえ?
『If we were to work on things that don’t happen, we wouldn’t spend our time well.』
仮定法過去キタコレ。
『So the work we are doing is with the expectation that we will take action in this field. Let me add that a final decision hasn’t been taken yet. So the final decision is to stand ready with a programme that would help to strengthen our accommodative monetary policy stance, injecting money into the real economy.』
『Question: I just want to follow up on the question on ABS purchases and the first answer you gave on this topic, because it seems to suggest that such purchases are already a done deal and that it’s not a question of if, but only a question of when and how. Is that correct? (後半割愛)』
『Draghi:(前半割愛)On the other point about ABS, well, in a sense, you know, ABS is just a name. And we know that the traditional ABS that were being traded before the crisis had many -- to be charitable -- many imperfections. And we certainly would not and could not recreate that sort of market, because it was considered -- some of these imperfections were actually considered one of the major roots or the major causes of the financial crisis. So our effort isn’t simple, because we want to recreate a market that is limited to a product that is -- as I said before -- simple, transparent and real.』
『Second, this market can actually -- we do -- I mean, Bank of England and ourselves believe that this market can restart, but the economics of this market must work. And what is now one of the major impediments to this is the present regulation. Having said that, no matter what regulators will be doing, we want to be ready. And that’s why we’ve intensified preparation.』
[外部リンク] Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer At the "The Great Recession--Moving Ahead," a Conference Sponsored by the Swedish Ministry of Finance, Stockholm, Sweden August 11, 2014
最初の小見出しが『Challenges Arising from the Growth Slowdown』なので報道の通りでお察しという感じですが日本ネタ優先で今朝はパスで勘弁してケロケロ。
[外部リンク] 『Exports are expected to head for a moderate increase mainly against the background of the recovery in overseas economies.』(今回英文) 『Exports are expected to increase moderately mainly against the background of the recovery in overseas economies.』(前回の英文)
