『 I expect real GDP to expand at about a 3 percent annual pace in the second half of this year and over 2015 and 2016. This is a moderate pace of growth, but it is somewhat above my estimate of longer-run trend growth, which I put at around 2.5 percent.』
『I believe several factors support above-trend growth over the next couple of years. Household and business balance sheets have improved and so have consumer and business confidence, which should support spending. In addition, monetary policy remains highly accommodative. And I expect labor markets, which have shown significant progress, will continue to strengthen and help sustain consumer spending.』
『Of course, there are risks around this forecast. These include geopolitical risks, which have escalated in recent weeks, as well as weakness in some economies abroad. Despite the risks, it’s my view that our economy is on firmer ground than it has been for some time.』
地政学リスクや海外経済の減速リスクなどはあるが景気は堅調に推移するとの見立て。
『My output projections of 3 percent in 2015 and 2016 put me at the upper end of the central tendency of FOMC participants’ new projections for 2015 and just above the upper end for 2016. The central tendency is obtained by dropping the lowest and highest three projections from among the FOMC participants. For 2015, the central tendency is 2.6 to 3.0 percent, and for 2016, it is 2.6 to 2.9 percent. I note that my 2.5 percent estimate for longer-run growth is also somewhat more optimistic than the central tendency of 2.0 to 2.3 percent.』
『Of course, there is always a good deal of uncertainty around estimates of trend growth, perhaps even more so today in the aftermath of such a deep recession. I lowered my estimate of trend growth after the Great Recession, but perhaps not far enough given the low productivity growth we’ve experienced over the past couple of years.』
ロンガーランの見通しについては金融危機後に下げたものの、まあそんなに大きくは下げていないそうな。
『On the other hand, I think it is premature to discount the future too much. It is good to remember the experience of the 1990s when over a period of several years, many forecasters revised down trend growth estimates only to subsequently revise them up significantly in response to strong productivity growth.』
『I expect that by the end of next year, the unemployment rate will fall to around 5.5 percent, which is my estimate of the longer-run, or natural, rate of unemployment, and remain near there in 2016. Like longer-run growth estimates, there is considerable uncertainty around estimates of the longer-run unemployment rate. These estimates depend on demographics, production technology, and other structural factors, and can vary over time. My estimate is on the upper end of the central tendency of 5.2 to 5.5 percent of the FOMC’s projections of longer-run unemployment. This means that I am projecting a somewhat faster return to full employment than some of my colleagues.』
『Turning to inflation, although it remains below the FOMC’s goal of 2 percent, inflation measured by the year-over-year change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures has increased to 1.6 percent this year from 1.2 percent last year. Consistent with a pickup in economic growth and expectations of inflation remaining well anchored, my projection is that inflation will gradually move back toward the FOMC’s 2 percent goal by the end of 2016. Of course, this projection is dependent on appropriate monetary policy. So let me turn to that now.』
『As one can see by looking at the SEP, there is some diversity of views about the appropriate path of interest rates. That is to be expected. Monetary policy must be dependent on the realized and expected evolution of the economy, and differences in the outlook across FOMC participants can result in different views of appropriate policy.』
『In addition, policymakers will calibrate their views on appropriate policy to changes in their outlook over time. This is what is meant by policy not being on a preset course: It should respond to changes in the realized and anticipated course of the economy.』
ということで金融政策は経済の状況および見通しによって変化しますとそらまあ正論ですが・・・・・・・・
『Indeed, this is a part of the Committee’s forward guidance, which remained unchanged last week.』
お、おう・・・・・・・・・・・・
『The guidance indicates that in determining how long to maintain the current target range for the fed funds rate, the FOMC will assess both realized and expected progress toward our objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation, and we will look at a wide range of information in making that assessment. The guidance then indicates that, based on that assessment, the Committee continues to anticipate that it will likely be appropriate to maintain the current 0-to-1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends. 』
ほうほうそれでそれで?
『I would prefer this second part of the forward guidance be reformulated. Even though the Committee has emphasized that policy is contingent on the state of the economy, in my view, the “considerable time” part of the guidance tends to focus the public’s attention on a calendar-time for liftoff rather than on the changes in economic conditions that will help determine changes in appropriate policy.』
『I believe the Summary of Economic Projections is a better vehicle to convey information about the anticipated timing of liftoff, as it ties policy paths to the economic outlook. But I acknowledge there is a range of views about forward guidance.』
『Indicating that the future path of short-term interest rates will be low for a long time can put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, thereby spurring current economic activity even when the policy rate is at the zero lower bound.』
『But in more normal times, away from the zero lower bound, I view forward guidance more as a communications device that conveys to the public how policy is likely to respond to changes in economic conditions. As such, I would like to see the forward guidance evolve over time to give more information about the conditions we systematically assess in calibrating the stance of policy to the economy’s actual progress and anticipated progress toward our dual-mandate goals, and to the speed with which that progress is being achieved.』
『A faster than expected pace of progress toward our goals would argue for a faster return to normal-that is, an earlier liftoff and more rapid funds rate increases than currently anticipated by the Committee?while a more subdued pace would argue for a slower return-a later liftoff and less rapid increases. I believe that effective communication about the contingent nature of our policy will be a key ingredient as we move back toward more normal monetary policymaking.』
以下が『Normalization Principles and Plans』ですが、こちらは特段変わった話はしておりませんので一つだけトピックを。
『In addition, the Fed will use other tools as needed to ensure adequate control of the policy rate. One of these tools is an overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility. Basically, with overnight reverse repos, the Fed lends securities from its large portfolio overnight in return for liquidity from eligible counterparties. Offering this alternative investment should help put a floor on the fed funds rate. But there is the potential that in times of market stress too much liquidity could be drawn from the private market to the Fed’s facility, thereby exacerbating financial market stress. To limit this possibility, the FOMC has been considering and testing different design features, and as the FOMC indicated, the overnight reverse repo facility will be used only to the extent necessary and will be phased out when it is no longer needed to help control the fed funds rate.』
ということで出口においてRRPを使う件については、RRPによってMMFなどの運用資金が吸い上げられることによって民間のファンディングに悪影響を与えたくない、という説明になっているのですが、「in times of market stress too much liquidity could be drawn from the private market to the Fed’s facility, thereby exacerbating financial market stress」と言っているのはお為ごかしというか理屈の為の理屈みたいな話でして、そもそも市場にストレスがある時にはRRPによるクラウディングアウトもへったくれも無くて、クレジットリスク取れない時なのだからどうしようも無くて、それこそRRPでの資金吸収をしながら民間クレジット商品の買入なり担保政策の緩和なりをするという話じゃないですかねえとは思いました。
[外部リンク] 『CHAIR YELLEN. Good afternoon. The Federal Open Market Committee concluded its meeting earlier today and, as usual, released its monetary policy statement. The Committee also released a document describing the approach the Committee intends to take when, at some point in the future, it becomes appropriate to begin normalizing the stance of policy.』
とまあ今回こんなん出しましたという話ですけど・・・・・・
『Let me underscore that our release of this information is not meant to convey any change in the stance of policy.』
『Inflation has been running below the Committee’s 2 percent objective, but with longer-term inflation expectations appearing to be well anchored and the economic recovery continuing, the Committee expects inflation to move gradually back toward its objective. Moreover, inflation has firmed some since earlier in the year, and the Committee believes that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished.』
『As is always the case, the Committee will continue to assess incoming data carefully to ensure that policy is consistent with attaining the FOMC’s longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.』
『Regarding interest rates, the Committee reaffirmed its forward guidance that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.』
ということでご案内の通りですが、フォワードガイダンスは「reaffirmed」されています。
『This judgment is based on the Committee’s assessment of realized and expected progress toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation?an assessment that is based on a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments.』
うむ。
『Further, once we begin to remove policy accommodation, it is the Committee’s current assessment that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.』
『This guidance is consistent with the paths for appropriate policy as reported in the participants’ projections.』
ということで・・・・・・・・・・・
『As I will explain in a moment, the FOMC now anticipates that it will continue to establish a target range, rather than a single point, for the federal funds rate when normalization begins, and the dots in the chart I’ve distributed now show, for each participant, the midpoint of this target range.』
『Notably, although the central tendency of the unemployment rate in late 2016 is slightly below its estimated longer-run value, and the central tendency for inflation is close to our 2 percent objective, the median projection for the federal funds rate at the end of 2016, at 2.9 percent, remains nearly a percentage point below the longer-run value of 3-3/4 percent or so projected by most participants.』
『Although FOMC participants provide a number of explanations for the federal funds rate running below its longer-run normal level at that time, many cite the residual effects of the financial crisis, which, although slowly diminishing, are likely to continue to restrain household spending, constrain credit availability, and depress expectations for future growth in output and incomes. As these factors dissipate further, most participants expect the federal funds rate to move close to its longer-run normal level by the end of 2017.』
『Let me reiterate, however, that the Committee’s expectations for the path of the federal funds rate are contingent on the economic outlook. If the economy proves to be stronger than anticipated by the Committee, resulting in a more rapid convergence of employment and inflation to the FOMC’s objectives, then increases in the federal funds rate are likely to occur sooner and to be more rapid than currently envisaged. Conversely, if economic performance disappoints, increases in the federal funds rate are likely to take place later and to be more gradual.』
『Let me now turn to our statement on “Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.” This statement is intended to provide information to the public about the eventual normalization process; it does not signal a change in the current or future stance of monetary policy. As is always the case in setting policy, the FOMC will determine the timing and pace of policy normalization so as to promote its statutory mandate of maximum employment and price stability.』
ふむ。
『Since the crisis, the Federal Reserve has been providing extraordinary accommodation using nontraditional tools of monetary policy. The FOMC’s intention has always been to return to a more traditional approach, and throughout this period, the Committee has been preparing for the normalization process. In June 2011 the Committee set out some broad principles and some more specific tactics for how it envisioned the normalization process to take place. In June 2013 we noted that conditions had changed significantly in ways not anticipated in June of 2011, including the size and composition of the Fed’s balance sheet, and that some revision of those earlier plans was appropriate. The document released today reflects our updated plans, which readers of our minutes will know, have been under discussion for the last few FOMC meetings. The new approach retains many broad objectives and principles from the original, but also has some new elements.』
延々と説明していますが、要は以前に出した正常化のプリンシパルに対してFEDのバランスシートの状況も変わったし、手段に対する研究も進んだしという事で書き換えましたけど、「which readers of our minutes will know」ってありますように、従来からの議論として議事要旨で示されていた内容を纏めたものになっていますというのは先日申し上げた通りです。
・金利誘導が重要だが偶にぶれることもありますとな
『As was the case before the crisis, the Committee intends to adjust the stance of monetary policy during normalization primarily through actions that influence the level of the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates, not through active management of the balance sheet. The federal funds rate will serve as the key rate to communicate the stance of policy.』
FF誘導金利が金融政策スタンスを示すようにしていきますとな。
『To begin normalization, the Committee will raise its target range for the federal funds rate. The Committee expects that the effective federal funds rate may vary within the target range, and could even move outside of that range on occasion, but such movements should have no material effect on financial conditions or the broader economy.』
『The primary tool for moving the federal funds rate into the target range will be the rate of interest paid on excess reserves (or IOER).』
ほほう。
『The Committee expects that the federal funds rate will trade below the IOER rate while reserves are so plentiful, as is the case at present. The Committee also intends to use an overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility, which, by transacting with a broad set of counterparties, will help ensure that the federal funds rate remains in the target range. I would like to emphasize that the overnight RRP facility will only be used to the extent necessary and will be phased out when no longer needed to help control the federal funds rate. In addition, the Committee will adjust the particular settings of these tools as needed, and could deploy other supplementary tools as well, to ensure that we achieve our desired stance of policy.』
『Turning now to our plans regarding the Fed’s balance sheet, the Committee intends to reduce securities holdings in a gradual and predictable manner primarily by ceasing to reinvest repayments of principal on securities held in the System Open Market Account.』
そらまあいずれ減らすわな。
『Regarding the timing for ceasing reinvestments, the Committee now expects this to occur after the initial increase in the target range for the federal funds rate. The Committee currently does not anticipate selling agency mortgage-backed securities as part of the normalization process, although limited sales might be warranted in the longer run to reduce or eliminate residual holdings; the timing and pace of such sales would be communicated to the public in advance.』
基本的に今のところは売却の予定はないとはいってますが、「now expects」だの「currently does not anticipate selling」だのということで、あくまでもまあ今の話ではありまして、実際に正常化していく中で短期の実効金利がアガランチ会長という事になった場合にはさてどうなるんでしょうねという所です。
『It is the Committee’s intention that the Federal Reserve will, in the longer run, hold no more securities than necessary to implement monetary policy efficiently and effectively, and that these securities will primarily consist of Treasury securities.』
長期的には必要最低限の国債保有だけにしますよというのも従来通り。
・で最後にまたまたこれ
『As I stated earlier, today’s release of the Committee’s updated normalization plans is in no way intended to signal a change in the stance of monetary policy.』
しつこく「スタンスの変更ではありません」である。
『Rather, it is meant simply to provide information about how the Committee envisions the normalization process in light of the changes in economic and financial circumstances that have occurred since we put forth our original plans more than three years ago. That said, conditions could change further and we will learn about our tools during normalization; the Committee has agreed that it is prepared to make additional adjustments to its normalization plans if warranted by economic and financial developments.』
正常化プロセスもデータ次第で状況に応じて判断するとここも強調という中々気を使っていますな。
『Thank you. Let me stop there. I’ll be happy to take your questions.』
[外部リンク] Introductory statement to the press conference (with Q&A) Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 4 September 2014
・ジャクソンホール講演に関するドラギのおっちゃんの演説を鑑賞
つーことで昨日の続きだけはネタにしておきたいので。
『Question: (前半割愛、というか昨日のネタ)And my second question would be on your calls for using the fiscal leeway we are having, and how are the responses from governments? Is it true that there was some frustration in certain governments, or have you been misinterpreted?』
財政云々のジャクソンホール講演に関して(ドイツの)政府方面から批判が出ているようですが如何?
『Draghi: (前半割愛)Yes, you are absolutely right. There have been many interpretations on what I said, but in fact, I thought I was exceedingly clear in what I said in Jackson Hole.』
ほうほう。
『Let me just try to sort of recap, without going through - actually, I expected a question like that, so I thought I should read through the speech again, but I’ll save you from that.』
その質問を待ってました!と演説モード開始(^^)。
『The idea is that there are, I would say, three instruments for revamping growth. Structural reforms, fiscal policy and monetary policy. During that presentation, I started with monetary policy, I went through fiscal policy, but then I concluded that there is no fiscal or monetary stimulus that will produce any effect without ambitious and important, strong, structural reforms. So in a sense, the key point is to do structural reforms.』
財政金融政策だけではなく構造改革が重要とな。
『On the fiscal policy, I said four things.』
で、財政については4点を申し上げましたと。
『The first is that, and I repeated this in the Introductory Statement today, the Stability and Growth Pact is our anchor of confidence. The rules should not be broken.』
『Second, within the existing rules, there is some flexibility, but within the rules, and also, I would add, that these discussions on flexibility should not be viewed or should not be such that they would undermine the essence of the Stability and Growth Pact. Within the Stability and Growth Pact, one could do things that are growth-friendly and also would contribute to budget consolidation, and I gave an example of a balanced budget tax cut. Reducing taxes that are especially distortionary, where the short-term multipliers could be higher, and cutting expenditure in the most unproductive parts, so mostly, actually not mostly, entirely, current government expenditure.』
1番目が「Stability and Growth Pact」を順守することが必須という話ですが、次が「でも柔軟な活用が重要なのにそういう議論が少ないのが良くない」という話をしていて、どう見てもドイツに財政出せですなこりゃ(^^;
『I also said, and that’s the third part, that we should have a discussion on the fiscal stance of the overall euro area.』
『And finally, I made a point about - which actually was a reference to a programme that had been launched by the new president of the Commission, Mr Juncker - about a very large public investment or private investment programme in the Union, and he gave a figure of ユーロ300 billion. This is what I said. 』
EUによる公的及び民間による投資プログラムがあるそうな。
『Let me add one thing from a confidence strengthening viewpoint.』
4つで終わりかと思ったらさらにもう一つ。
『Because in many parts of the euro area, there are several reasons why growth is not coming back, but one of them is actually that there is lack of confidence. There is lack of confidence in the future, lack of confidence in the prospects, in economic prospects, of these countries. From a confidence viewpoint, it would be much better if we were to have first a very serious discussion on the structural reforms and then a discussion about flexibility.』
『That’s the idea, that’s a suggestion, but that’s what I said in Jackson Hole, so if there have been over- or under-interpretations, it’s not my responsibility. I think the message came out quite clearly.』
まあ演説して最後に「That’s the idea, that’s a suggestion」と言ったのはちょっと勢いで言い過ぎたかもという事なのかもしれませんが、まあ今回の質疑応答の中で一番の演説パートですのでやっとネタにして遅くてスイマセンでしたという事で。
[外部リンク] Introductory statement to the press conference (with Q&A) Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 4 September 2014
先週火曜にネタにして以来続きをやっていませんでしたすいませんすいません。
・ABS買入を不胎化するのか&今回の利下げが何でまた急に来ましたねんという質問
『Question: My first question is more a comprehension question on this covered bonds and ABS programme to be launched. What about the sterilisation of the purchase of these assets? Is it something that is in mind, or is it not relevant, because we heard about sterilisation of purchases of other kinds of assets, like SMP for example. So it is not a question, but maybe you can clarify this.』
『And the second one, after having announced a bunch of measures in July, three months ago, you’re acting now, but in a surprising way with regard to interest rates, and so maybe the impression could be that the ECB is acting in a kind of hasty manner. So can you maybe comment on this or say, why these steps now and not the whole thing three months ago?』
『Draghi: This is a very natural question to ask, and one should ask, what has changed since then?』
最初どっちの質問に対する「自然な質問」かと思いましたが後半の質問に対してですな(^^)。
『What happened in August is that we’ve seen a worsening of the medium-term inflation outlook. We have seen a downward movement in all indicators of inflation expectations across all maturities. As I had a chance to say in Jackson Hole, one of the most used measures, the five year in five years inflation, had dropped by something like, I remember 18 basis points, just below 2%. So after the speech, some of these measures backed up. Some of them went back to their original level, but most of them did not.』
『Add to this that I would say most, if not all, the data that we got in August, both hard and soft, on GDP and inflation, as I said in the introductory statement, showed that the recovery was losing momentum. The growth recovery was losing momentum.』
で、もう一つの理由が「成長のモメンタムが失われてきている」という事でして、ちなみに会見のこの先でも「recovery was losing momentum」というのを連呼していて、回復のモメンタムが失われてきているというのを強調しているのがポイントのようです。
『So the Governing Council basically decided to a great extent to strengthen the measures, complete and strengthen the measures decided in June. In this sense, the ABS outright purchases could be viewed as a measure that strengthens the TLTRO. So that’s the reason essentially. And again, the change in interest rate is also - I would say that the main reason is to make sure that there are no more misunderstandings about whether we have reached the lower bound. Now we are at the lower bound. So I think that’s the answer to your point, which is a very legitimate question really.』
『Question: I have two questions. The first is on the purchase programmes that you announced. Do you have more details of what kind of ABS you are planning to buy? Mortgage, residential mortgage, just to SMEs?』
『And on the rate cut, could you give a bit more light on what you expect to achieve with a rate cut? It will make the TLTROs more attractive? This is what I’m thinking, but this is the question I’m asking you.』
ということで・・・・・・・・・
『Draghi: The purchase of ABS will involve both newly created and existing ABS and would also include the real estate, the RMBS, real estate ABS. It would also include a fairly wide range of ABS containing loans to the real economy.』
不動産担保証券なども含めて広い範囲のABSを購入するそうな。
『The other question is about the interest rate. Well, it’s a convention, a standard monetary policy decision, and one expects effects according to the usual line of thinking, but in this case it clearly signals to the banks that are going to participate in the TLTRO that they should not expect any further lowering in interest rate, so they should not hesitate to participate in the TLTRO because of this reason, because they could wait for a lower interest rate in the future. 』
特に追加のツッコミは無かったのですが、ここの説明の中で一つアチャーなのは政策の狙いについて「a standard monetary policy decision」としている事でして、さっき(と言っても先週火曜引用ネタの部分ですが)「テクニカルな調整」と言っていたのは何だったですねんという所で、まあ先週引用した「我々は既に担保としてABSを受け入れているのでABSには詳しいです(キリッ)」→「だったら何でブラックロックをABS買入プログラムのアドバイザーに起用したのでしょうか(ニヤニヤ)」というコンボが炸裂したように、どうも今回の追加緩和は色々と細かい所の説明が雑というか練りが甘くなっているなあという感じです。
『Question: I have two questions. Considering the inflation expectation in your staff projections, which have not moved for 2015 and 2016. Why have they not moved if you’re seeing a clear trend of lower inflation in the future?(後半割愛)』
『Draghi: On the first question, the staff’s projections foresee a return of inflation and an upward trend essentially because of the recovery, of the exchange rate, of the effects of our monetary policy, of better prospects for global demand.』
『So by and large, these are the underlying assumptions, and in some cases, I do think they also foresee an increase in the price of food. So there are assumptions. The usual assumptions are behind this. The downward trend that we are witnessing this year is viewed as a temporary deviation from a baseline which will see inflation expectations going back toward 2%, but not at 2%, in 2016.』
