『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that labor market conditions improved further even as economic growth slowed late last year.』(今回)
『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace.』(前回)
景気の現状判断についてですが、景気に関しては「economic growth slowed late last year」としているのですが、その文章を入れるのに主文が「labor market conditions improved further」となっている辺りが確かにこれは3月利上げについて状況が落ち着けばやる気なんでしょうなあという印象を与えるので、そこのニュアンスを受けてダウとか下がったという事なのでしょうかねえ。
『Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at moderate rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft and inventory investment slowed.』(今回)
『Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft.』(前回)
『A range of recent labor market indicators, including strong job gains, points to some additional decline in underutilization of labor resources.』(今回)
『A range of recent labor market indicators, including ongoing job gains and declining unemployment, shows further improvement and confirms that underutilization of labor resources has diminished appreciably since early this year.』(前回)
労働市場に関しては「ongoing job gains」→「strong job gains」と表現が強くなりまして、しかも「some additional decline in underutilization of labor resources」ということで労働市場のスラックが一段と改善(って改善改善言い続けているがいつ無くなるのかと突っ込みたくなるという話はあるのですがそれはさておき)ということで、労働市場に関しては冒頭の所でもそうでしたが、改善傾向継続という認識を示していまして、労働市場に関してだけはやたら強い。
『Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation declined further; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.』(今回)
『Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; some survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have edged down.』(前回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen.』(今回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will continue to expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen.』(前回)
先行きの全体的な部分ですが、先行きが「economic activity will continue to expand」→「economic activity will expand」としているので、まあ気持ちちょっと威勢が弱くなっているかなとは思いますが、ちゃんと「with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy」は残していて(残さなかったら大騒ぎになるから順当ですが)こういう辺りに3月利上げを排除しないというメッセージはきっちり入れていますな。
『Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of the further declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook.』(今回)
『Overall, taking into account domestic and international developments, the Committee sees the risks to the outlook for both economic activity and the labor market as balanced. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.』(前回)
微妙に文章順が変わっているので比較するのにまとめて引用してしまって若干見にくいのですが、物価の先行き文言に関してはより長めのタームの文言は同じなのですが、手前の部分に「近いタームではインフレは低い状態が継続するとみられる」と入れて来まして、手前の物価に関しては下げ。リスク認識に関してはバランスしているけどインフレの状況を注視する、という表現から「The Committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook.」となっているので、海外経済と金融市場動向に対する影響を見ると入れているのでここはさすがに慎重化したとは思いますが、リスクバランスに関しては今回バランスなのか下なのかは書かないでスルーという辺りは芸が細かいと申しますか確かに3月利上げの旗を降ろしたと思われないような配慮が入っているわと思います。
というのはですね、例の昨年9月の声明文第2パラグラフですけれども、
『Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.』(昨年9月の声明文から)
『Given the economic outlook, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.』(今回)
『The Committee judges that there has been considerable improvement in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2 percent objective. Given the economic outlook, and recognizing the time it takes for policy actions to affect future economic outcomes, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative after this increase, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.』(前回)
前回は初回利上げだったのでそれを決定した理由についての文言があって、今回はそこが無くなっている点での違いがありますが、今回の「The stance of monetary policy」以降の文言については前回と変更がありません。
『In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.』(今回)
『The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.』(今回)
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.』(今回)
○デュアルマンデートの理解(考え方)に関する表現変更でブラード総裁にドテンが入ったような気が
今回は1月会合なのでこれがありましたですな(汗)。
[外部リンク] 『As part of its annual organizational meeting actions, the Federal Open Market Committee reaffirmed its "Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy," with a revision to clarify that it views its inflation objective as symmetric, and with an updated reference to participants' estimates of the longer-run normal unemployment rate in the most recent Summary of Economic Projections (December 2015).』
『In October 2014, in preparation for the annual reaffirmation, the Committee discussed the potential benefits of amending the statement to clarify that its inflation objective is symmetric. As indicated in the minutes of that meeting, there was general agreement on the symmetry of the objective. Following further Committee discussion regarding the most appropriate way to express this clarification, the statement has been amended to indicate that the "Committee would be concerned if inflation were running persistently above or below" its 2 percent objective. All but one participant supported the amended statement.』
で今回の変更点に関してはちと長くなるので先にこのリリース文の引用をしてからにします。
『The Committee first adopted the statement at its January 2012 meeting and has reaffirmed it, with appropriate revisions, at its annual organizational meetings each January.』
ですな。
『Voting for the statement were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against was James Bullard, who agreed the Committee's inflation goal is symmetric, but believed the amended language is not sufficiently focused on expected future deviations of inflation from the goal.』
『Communicating this symmetric inflation goal clearly to the public helps keep longer-term inflation expectations firmly anchored, thereby fostering price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhancing the Committee’s ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances.』(今回)
『Communicating this inflation goal clearly to the public helps keep longer-term inflation expectations firmly anchored, thereby fostering price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhancing the Committee’s ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances.』(前回)
つーことで、今回は「symmetric inflation goal」と従来の「inflation goal」を変更していまして、ここのニュアンスは一昨年の10月議事要旨を見るという話になるので話が長くなりそうですが、要するに「インフレ目標からの上ブレもケシカランが下ブレも同様にケシカラン」というニュアンスを込めている(ちなみに一昨年10月議事要旨の最後の所に「Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy」というのがあってそんな議論があるのですが引用すると長くなりそうなのでパス)次第で、こちらに関しても「継続的に物価が下振れる状況は宜しくない」という論点を前面に出してきた、という意味では足元の物価低迷に関しての問題意識が強まっていますよ、というメッセージを出しているので、今回のアメンドは足元の物価状況に対するメッセージにはなっていると思いますので、そういう点ではハト的(ただしこれ物価が上がってくるとタカにも効くもろ刃の剣ではあります)ではないかと思いますがどうでしょうかね。
[外部リンク] Introductory statement to the press conference (with Q&A)
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Vitor Constancio, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 21 January 2016
・手段が残っているのか系のツッコミが第一弾
『Question: You said in your opening statement that you could possibly reconsider the monetary policy stance as soon as March. What measures do you still have left, and what do you think they can do if these downside risks do materialise?(後半割愛)』
『Draghi: I will ask Mr Constancio to answer the second question. Keep in mind, however, that we are not the resolution authority in this. I think that's an important point to keep in mind. As far as your first question is concerned, let me just recall my speech in New York, which was actually quoted during our discussion today, saying that, first of all, we have the power, the willingness and the determination to act. There are no limits to how far we are willing to deploy our instruments within our mandate to achieve our objective of a rate of inflation which is below but close to 2%.』
2%達成に向けた手段もその能力もあります(キリッ)。
『So there shouldn't be any doubt about that, and we have plenty of instruments, as you know. We didn't want to discuss today the specifics of the instruments, but rather to determine and assess the stance that we may have to take in March. Here I'll read again these quite important words: "It will therefore be necessary to review and possibly reconsider our monetary policy stance at our next meeting in early March, when the new projections will become available."'』
『Question: You commented at the meeting last month that the monetary policy stance was adequate; now six weeks later you're saying that you want to review it again. What does that say? Is there a sense that that harms the credibility of the ECB, that you have to act again so swiftly?』
『And my second question is, after these multiple stimulus programmes - QE and deposit rate and so on - inflation is still almost zero; you think it's going to fall below zero. Is there a sense that central banks don't have as much control over inflation as they used to?』
『Draghi: First let me say that our monetary policy measures that we've undertaken since mid-2014 have been quite effective.』
ほうほう。
『If you look at the pass-through of our measures to the lending rates - the borrowing and lending rates, the financing costs, the improvement in all financial conditions, and how these improvements are now being translated into real economic improvements, I think the pass-through has been quite significant if not spectacular.』
『The measures we decided in December were entirely appropriate and have been effective, but they were entirely appropriate based on the circumstances that were prevailing at that time.』
『The circumstances were basically - we look at several variables, but certainly we've looked, as I think I've said in the last press conference, at the exchange rate in effective terms; we looked at the price of oil; we looked at the growth prospects of emerging market economies. Since then, these circumstances have changed. Just think about it: the price of oil has fallen by 40% since the cut-off date of the last projections. The same thing we can say about the exchange rate in effective terms. And you can observe the situation of the markets, both financial and commodity markets, and the geopolitical developments since then.』
『Those measures, by the way, in December, were quite significant. If one goes back, our extension of the APP and the decision to reinvest is going to add ユーロ680 billion to the liquidity, and it's an amount - I don't think people have reflected enough - it's an amount that's about two-thirds of the original size of the programme.』
『So now these conditions have worsened, and I think, to respond to your question, the credibility of the ECB would be harmed if we were not ready to review and possibly reconsider our monetary policy stance when we have full information. As I said before, the Governing Council reiterates that it has the power, the willingness, the determination to act, and the fact that there are no limits to our action, within our mandate, of course. Let me also add one other thing that's maybe relevant in view of the impression: the Governing Council was unanimous in being committed to this line of communication.』
『There was another question, about the power of central banks to control inflation. I think that's a very important question.』
さいですな。
『It's pretty clear that we are adapting our instruments to the changing conditions, and the conditions change because some global factors are at play, and we are doing whatever is necessary to comply with our mandate, and we are not surrendering in front of these global factors, actions. So we will confirm our determination to continue to comply with our mandate, which is to reach a level of inflation that is below but close to 2%, even - and actually even more so - in the face of adverse developments.』
『Question: You have said that there are no limits within your mandate to what you can do. I would like to ask you, if you could clarify a bit how this extends the potential scope of your action. Would this mean that you could extend purchases into classes of assets that are completely out of your scope, such as equities or something else? Does it mean that you could lower rates, not just the deposit rate but also the main rate?(後半割愛)』
で答えですけど。
『Draghi: The first question is really, we never addressed that. We've designed our programme according to certain parameters; so far our programme is proceeding smoothly. If there were constraints of any kind, as I said, we'll have technical work making sure that we can use all the instruments up to their full availability.』
『Question: In October last year the statement said that the Governing Council would re-examine the monetary policy stance at the next meeting, and that was seen as a strong signal for further action, at the December meeting, and indeed that was the case. The statement today is slightly different: it says it will therefore be necessary to review and possibly reconsider the stance. Is there any difference between these two sentences when it comes to substance and commitment?』
なるほど!と思ったのですが、2つ目の質問を入れたがために・・・・・・・・・・・
『The second question is on inflation expectations: how worried are you about the recent drop in inflation expectations, for example the five-year/five-year, in parallel to the oil price? Especially given the fact that in December you emphasised that the correlation between the ECB's inflation expectation measures and the recent oil price has decreased or just disappeared.』
まあこれはこれでポイントなのですが、ドラギ総裁はこっちの質問に答えて華麗にスルー。
『Draghi: Answering to your second question, first of all let me say that we use a variety of inflation expectation indicators, not only the five-year/five-year. But certainly all inflation expectation measures, whether it's five-year, one-year, whatever, they have declined. They have declined, and I would say, more worryingly, their correlation with current inflation has increased, and therefore their correlation with the oil price has also increased. That's why, as I was saying before, second-round effects are especially important.』
『And as I said before, the Governing Council has the power - and this answers your first question - the power, the willingness and the determination to act. And there are no limits to how far we are willing to deploy our instruments within our mandate to achieve this objective. And this is what I said in the New York speech after the last press conference.』
[外部リンク] How domestic economic strength can prevail over global weakness Keynote speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the Deutsche Borse Group New Year’s reception 2016, Eschborn, 25 January 2016
・ユーロ圏経済は中は強いけど外に懸念でキーは「コンフィデンス」ですってよ
『The euro area has started the New Year facing two opposing forces: a strengthening domestic economy and a weakening global one.』
『At home, the recovery is proceeding, with consumption as the main driver. That is being supported by our accommodative monetary policy, falling energy prices and a neutral fiscal policy. Employment is rising, up by over 2 million people compared with the trough in 2013.』
『But in the world economy there is more uncertainty. Developments in China and other emerging markets have led to a slowdown in global demand and financial market uncertainty. Forecasts for global growth are being cut.』
『The key question for policymakers in the euro area in 2016 will be which of these forces gains the upper hand. Our number one challenge, as a union, is to make sure that domestic strength prevails over global weakness.
Our ability to influence the world economy is limited. But we can affect what happens in the euro area. We can take the measures necessary to strengthen our economies and make them more resilient to global shocks. For that, all policymakers need to play their part.』
『The key element is confidence. Confidence in growth, confidence in stability, and confidence in the future of the euro area. Only by building confidence can we turn the ongoing cyclical recovery into a robust, structural recovery.』
次の小見出しが『The role of the ECB』である。これまた途中からで、最初の「That decision」は12月に追加緩和を行ったことを指します。
『That decision was taken because of new downside risks which threatened the outlook for price stability. Those risks were largely linked to external factors, and ones which might not be temporary . With inflation already low for some time, we saw a danger that a continued period of low inflation - even if oil-driven - might destabilise inflation expectations and become persistent.』
『That risk was heightened by the fact that “core” inflation, which strips out energy and food, was also low. Core inflation is not our objective, but it tends to lead headline inflation over the medium-term.』
うむ。
『All this called for a monetary policy response. And we chose to respond by recalibrating the APP because we have ample evidence that it works.』
『Some may wonder why we go to such lengths to meet our price stability objective. Isn’t it good for people if inflation is low and things are cheaper?』
そらそうよ。
『Certainly, in the short run, a fall in inflation helps consumers. But if inflation stays too low for too long it actually harms them. And that’s particularly the case in a post-debt crisis environment like the one we face in the euro area today.』
うむ。
『For example, if euro area inflation were to undershoot our baseline by just 1 percentage point each year for the next five years, it would increase the private debt ratio by around 6 percentage points. That might not sound like a big figure. But, over five years, it’s equivalent to ユーロ700 billion in extra debt for firms and households at a time when we should be aiming to reduce debt.』
デッドオーバーハングの時の物価低迷は債務の実質負担を更に高めるのでイクナイという話をしています。
『More fundamentally, meeting our objective is about credibility. If a central bank sets an objective, it can’t just move the goalposts when it misses it. Confidence comes from every party fulfilling its mandate. And that’s what the ECB will do, as the Treaty demands of us.』
でもってこのスピーチは次のパートが『Questions about the ECB’s policy』という小見出しで、その次のパートが『The role of other policymakers』なのですよ。でもってどう見ても後者の方がドラギ総裁の話したかった事みたいなのでひとパートまる飛ばしして後半に。
『Still, we’ve always said that monetary policy alone cannot be the solution. To give confidence a solid foundation, we have to help a cyclical recovery turn into a structural recovery. That depends on other policymakers in the euro area playing their part.』
『There are four key areas where decisive action could build confidence in 2016.』
ほう(ダジャレではない)。
『The first is fiscal policy. For a strong recovery, we need fiscal policy to work with, and not against, monetary policy. And after much hard work, we now have a broadly neutral fiscal stance in the euro area. But many countries still need further structural adjustment to boost confidence in their public finances. So the challenge is how to do that with as little damage to growth as possible.』
『The key to growth-friendly consolidation is the composition of adjustment: on the expenditure side, cutting government consumption rather than investment; and on the revenue side, shifting and possibly reducing the tax burden rather than raising it. But what also matters, of course, is that we lift the growth potential of our economies to help grow out of debt.』
『That brings me to the second area where we need action: structural reforms.』
でもって構造改革でグロースポテンシャルを上げましょうという話。
『Structural reforms are essential to boost employment, especially in countries that are absorbing large numbers of refugees. They’re essential to kick-start a recovery in private investment. And they’re essential to lift productivity, so that our shrinking workforces can support our ageing societies.』
『Every country of course has its own challenges. But if I had to pick out one cross-cutting reform agenda item for 2016, it would be this: making it easier to do business in the euro area. That’s not necessarily about deregulation, but rather taking practical steps to improve the business environment, such as speeding up judicial procedures, or reducing the time and costs for setting up a business. Such reforms would have a direct positive effect on investment, but unlike some other measures, they would have little negative impact on inflation or employment in the short run.』
構造改革規制改革などに関して一般論ではありますが色々と個別領域について発言しているのね。
『A third area is dealing with the high levels of public and private debt which are casting a shadow over the recovery.』
3番目の取り組むべき課題はデッドオーバーハングの話。
『Part of the solution is to have well-designed corporate insolvency regimes that can separate viable from non-viable borrowers and facilitate the valuation of assets to be sold off. But it’s also key for confidence that the bank resolution process is absolutely clear.』
『In particular, we need to make sure that the new bail-in rules are applied evenly across countries and with the minimum scope for national discretions. We also still don’t have agreement on a backstop for the Single Resolution Fund. And a European deposit insurance scheme would signal progress in completing banking union.』
でまあそういう流れで銀行同盟による金融機関のベイルインルールなどの統一が必要ですよというお話。
『That brings me to the final area for action: completing our monetary union. The Five Presidents’ Report has laid out a long-term vision for Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and a sequence of steps towards it. Now we need to realise the short-term steps that will lend credibility to that long-term vision - first and foremost, by finishing all three pillars of banking union.』
『Removing the fragility of EMU, by making progress with both the short-term steps and the long-term vision, would bring about a vital boost to confidence in Europe.』
おっちゃんの落語はこちら [外部リンク] Introductory statement to the press conference Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Vitor Constancio, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 21 January 2016
『Ladies and gentlemen, first of all let me wish you a Happy New Year. The Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by the Commission Vice-President, Mr Dombrovskis.』
ということで落語開幕。
『Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, and after the recalibration of our monetary policy measures last month, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged and we expect them to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.』
「we expect them to remain at present or lower levels」という辺りから怪しげな香り。
『Regarding our non-standard monetary policy measures, the asset purchases are proceeding smoothly and continue to have a favourable impact on the cost and availability of credit for firms and households.』
『Taking stock of the evidence available at the beginning of 2016, it is clear that the monetary policy measures that we have adopted since mid-2014 are working. As a result, developments in the real economy, credit provision and financing conditions have improved and have strengthened the euro area’s resilience to recent global economic shocks.』
『The decisions taken in early December to extend our monthly net asset purchases of ユーロ60 billion to at least the end of March 2017, and to reinvest the principal payments on maturing securities for as long as necessary, were fully appropriate. They will result in a significant addition of liquidity to the banking system and will strengthen our forward guidance on interest rates.』
12月の決定は更にこれに追加するものですよと。
『Yet, as we start the new year, downside risks have increased again amid heightened uncertainty about emerging market economies’ growth prospects, volatility in financial and commodity markets, and geopolitical risks.』
『It will therefore be necessary to review and possibly reconsider our monetary policy stance at our next meeting in early March, when the new staff macroeconomic projections become available which will also cover the year 2018. In the meantime, work will be carried out to ensure that all the technical conditions are in place to make the full range of policy options available for implementation, if needed.』
『Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis.』
というのも読んでみる。
『Euro area real GDP growth was confirmed at 0.3%, quarter on quarter, in the third quarter of 2015, supported mainly by private consumption, while being dampened by a negative contribution from net exports. The most recent survey indicators, available up to December, point to ongoing real GDP growth momentum in the fourth quarter of last year. Looking ahead, we expect the economic recovery to proceed. Domestic demand should be further supported by our monetary policy measures and their favourable impact on financial conditions, as well as by the earlier progress made with fiscal consolidation and structural reforms. Moreover, the renewed fall in oil prices should provide additional support for households’ real disposable income and corporate profitability and, therefore, for private consumption and investment. In addition, the fiscal stance in the euro area is becoming slightly expansionary, reflecting in particular measures in support of refugees.』
『However, the economic recovery in the euro area continues to be dampened by subdued growth prospects in emerging markets, volatile financial markets, the necessary balance sheet adjustments in a number of sectors and the sluggish pace of implementation of structural reforms.』
『The risks to the euro area growth outlook remain on the downside and relate in particular to the heightened uncertainties regarding developments in the global economy, as well as to broader geopolitical risks. These risks have the potential to weigh on global growth and foreign demand for euro area exports and on confidence more widely.』
『Euro area annual HICP inflation was 0.2% in December 2015, compared with 0.1% in November. The December outcome was lower than expected, mainly reflecting the renewed sharp decline in oil prices, as well as lower food price and services price inflation.』
物価に関しては原油価格と食料品価格とサービス価格が想定よりも弱くて想定よりも弱かったとな。
『 On the basis of current oil futures prices, which are well below the level observed a few weeks ago, the expected path of annual HICP inflation in 2016 is now significantly lower compared with the outlook in early December.』
significantly lowerキタコレ!
『Inflation rates are currently expected to remain at very low or negative levels in the coming months and to pick up only later in 2016. Thereafter, supported by our monetary policy measures and the expected economic recovery, inflation rates should continue to recover, but risks of second-round effects should be monitored closely. A more comprehensive picture of the impact of oil prices and other external and domestic factors on the outlook for HICP inflation will become available in the March 2016 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, which will also cover the year 2018.』
昨日の続きです。 [外部リンク] The U.S. Economic Outlook and Implications for Monetary Policy January 15, 2016 William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer Remarks at the Economic Leadership Forum, Somerset, New Jersey
・超過準備の実質不胎化がワークしているので・・・・・・・
『I would like to turn now to the issue of how the initial step in normalization is going.』
というパラグラフから。
『The U.S. bond market response to lift-off has been very mild. There has been no bond market “taper tantrum” such as what occurred in 2013 when Chairman Bernanke discussed the possibility of tapering Federal Reserve asset purchases. Normalization is also going very well in the sense that, even with an extraordinarily large balance sheet, the tools we have developed to raise the federal funds rate (and other money market rates) have so far worked well. The federal funds rate is trading close to the middle of the new target range of 25 to 50 basis points and other money market rates have moved up in tandem.』
『As I noted earlier, the tools are working as anticipated. Not only is the federal funds rate trading close to the middle of the new 25 to 50 basis point target range, but the entire complex of money market rates, such as LIBOR deposits and GCF repo, has also risen as well. Moreover, apart from a temporary spike in usage around year end, which was expected, the usage of the overnight, fixed rate reverse repo facility has fallen back to levels similar to what we saw during the testing phase. In recent days, usage has averaged less than $100 billion per day. Thus, the facility has been absorbing only a small fraction of the $2.4 trillion of excess reserves in the banking system.』
『This demonstrates that to firm interest rates, we don’t necessarily have to drain reserves or shrink the size of our balance sheet.』
という評価になっておりまして、バランスシートの縮小をそんなに急ぐ必要はない、という話をしています。
・FOMCの正常化パス見通しと市場の見通しの差に関して
『So what’s on the docket for monetary policy in 2016? The answer is that it depends on how the incoming data weighs on the outlook, and how changes in the outlook influence our views on the appropriate setting for monetary policy. What I can say is that our expectation at the December FOMC meeting was for further interest rate hikes in 2016 and beyond. Participants anticipated that the federal funds rate would likely continue on a gradual upward path. Over the longer term, FOMC participants expected that the federal funds rate would eventually reach 3 to 4 percent as inflation rose back to our 2 percent objective and the headwinds from the financial crisis that had been restraining economic activity fully dissipated.』
『Even though this path is shallow relative to previous tightening cycles, the median federal funds rate path of FOMC participants in the December Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) is well above the path implied by the federal funds futures market.』
で、SEPで示している正常化見通しと市場の見通しが違う件についてという話が。
『Should this be a concern? Does this imply that there is a significant risk of an abrupt future spike in short- and long-term interest rates as market rates realign to levels more consistent with the median FOMC participants’ projections?』
『I don’t think so for several reasons.』
ほほう。
『First, the SEP projections are modal forecasts-that is, what the participants believe is most likely to happen-whereas those embodied in market prices are a mean-that is, an average across all possible outcomes. One might reasonably expect these modal forecasts to be above the mean when inflation is low and the economic outlook is uncertain.』
『Second, the median federal funds rate forecasts for primary dealers and for buyside participants surveyed just prior to the December FOMC meeting differed only marginally from the December SEP median projections of FOMC participants. This reinforces my judgment that the difference between means and modes is the main factor for the gap between the federal funds futures market and the SEP paths.』
『Third, the differences between the interest rates implied by futures markets and the SEP have been quite small at shorter-term time horizons, such as the end of 2016, and grow much larger as the time horizon lengthens. I think this is noteworthy because the confidence one has at longer horizons should be much lower than at shorter horizons.』
何ちゅうか別に大きな問題ではないという理由がうーむという感じなのですが・・・・・・
『Because I do not know what the federal funds rate target range will be at the end of 2017 or 2018 with any confidence, I am not very concerned if others have a different modal forecast. Projections will adjust as incoming information changes the economic outlook. I would expect convergence over time of the SEP and market expectations as new information informs the outlook.』
『Let me close with some observations about my current thinking concerning our reinvestment of maturing Treasury securities and paydowns in our agency MBS holdings.』
キタコレ。
『As we noted in the December FOMC statement, we anticipate that we will continue reinvestment “until normalization of the federal funds rate is well underway.” I think this policy makes sense not only because the decision to end reinvestment will represent a further tightening of monetary policy, but also because it is difficult to assess ahead of time the impact of such a decision on financial market conditions given the lack of historical experience.』
『I also believe that continuing reinvestment until the federal funds rate reaches a higher level makes sense. We want to ensure that we have the ability to respond to adverse shocks by easing monetary policy by lowering the policy rate. Having more “dry powder” in the form of higher short-term interest rates seems more desirable than less dry powder and a smaller balance sheet.』
『Now the words “well underway” in the FOMC statement are vagueーwhat does that mean in terms of the level of the federal funds rate? Reiterating the disclaimer that I am speaking for myself, my view is that we should not set a numerical tripwire for ending reinvestment. If the economy were growing very quickly and the risks of an early return to the zero lower bound for the federal funds rate were deemed to be low, then I could see ending reinvestment at a relatively low federal funds rate. In contrast, if the economy lacked forward momentum and the risks of a return to the zero lower bound were judged to be considerably higher, I would want to continue reinvestment until the federal funds rate was higher. Consistent with the general principles I mentioned before, the evolution of the overall monetary policy stance-both interest rate decisions and balance sheet developments-should be data dependent.』
償還再投資を止めるタイミングとして言ってる「until normalization of the federal funds rate is well underway」についてはまあ曖昧な概念なのは認めていて、これは状況次第というようなファジーな説明になっていますが、ここまでの話からすると利上げの方を優先して償還再投資停止はまだ見ていないのでこういう説明になっているという感じではないかと。
『In my view, good monetary policy-making requires ongoing assessment and judgment, not the adherence to mechanical rules. I know market participants desire certainty, but in the uncertain world in which we live, that desire is not consistent with the policy that would best achieve our objectives. We will strive to communicate as clearly as we can so you can think along with us and alter your expectations just as we do in response to incoming information.』
月曜の続きです。 [外部リンク] The U.S. Economic Outlook and Implications for Monetary Policy January 15, 2016 William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer Remarks at the Economic Leadership Forum, Somerset, New Jersey
後半の金融政策パートです。
『Turning now to U.S. monetary policy, why did I favor raising the federal funds rate target last month? Basically, my assessment was that our conditions for lift-off had been met. Recall, these two conditions were: 1) further improvement in the labor market that we anticipated would be sustained in 2016, and 2) greater confidence that inflation would begin to move back towards our 2 percent inflation objective over the medium term.』
12月利上げの理由に関してはまあ良いとしまして。
『The timing of policy normalization involves a balancing of risks. I don’t disagree with our critics that there were risks from lifting off in December versus waiting a little longer. First, the economy might turn out to be more fragile than we anticipate, or economic shocks could push the economy off-course relative to our expectations. In other words, our economic projections might be too optimistic. Second, the first tightening move might itself provoke another taper tantrum characterized by higher bond yields and tighter financial market conditions that could be sufficiently strong to impede the economic recovery.』
『My judgment was that these risks were manageable.』
マネージできるそうな。
『First, downside forecast errors are certainly possible, but the U.S. economy appears to be on sufficiently sound footing to withstand downside shocks better than was the case a few years ago. Second, I felt that the likelihood of a substantial tightening in financial market conditions due to lift-off was relatively low, in part, because the rate hike was widely anticipated. Market conditions had adjusted quite smoothly-except for some strains observed in the high-yield debt market-as market participants placed higher odds of tightening in the weeks preceding the December FOMC meeting.』
『This reinforced that conclusion. A large market reaction would have been a surprise given that this was one of the most anticipated monetary policy events in history. Also, the policy action needs to be viewed in context. While this decision was the first upward adjustment to short-term rates in nearly 10 years, the actual move was smal-?only 25 basis points-which, by itself, should have only a very mild impact on the overall trajectory of the economy. As we noted in the FOMC statement and as Chair Yellen pointed out in her December press conference, even after this rate hike, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative.』
『Moreover, it is important to recognize that there are also significant risks from waiting longer to lift off. Upside forecast errors are also certainly possible.』
見通しよりも経済物価が上振れるリスクも同じように可能性があるではないかとかおいおいおいという感じ。
『For example, while the pace of growth has generally been weaker than expected in recent years, the pace of labor market improvement has generally been stronger. By waiting, we would increase the risk that we would need to raise rates more aggressively in the future. This could unduly threaten the economic expansion.』
『In balancing these risks, relatively “early and slow” seems like a better strategy than “late and fast”-especially when one is uncertain both about the degree of accommodation being provided by monetary policy and the level of unemployment consistent with our price stability mandate. Because monetary policy works with a lag, policy normalization needs to begin before the economy reaches its employment and inflation objectives. That is, if we are to get to a neutral monetary policy setting before inflation materially overshoots our 2 percent objective, then we need to get started. Once underway, the pace of policy tightening can be calibrated to how the economy and financial market conditions are responding.』
つーことでどうも前回の利上げサイクルは(当時はメジャードペースという言い方でしたが)“late and fast”ということに認定されいるようなので、経済がよほど上に振れない限りFOMCの今の見通しである「年間100bp利上げ」というのが基本になる(そもそも中立水準まで上げられないのではないかとか、次回の時点で上げ損なうのではないかというのはさておき)のでしょうな。
で、何でそんなに正常化路線ヒャッハーとなっているのかという一端は次のパラグラフで何となく把握した。
『A particular risk of late and fast is that the unemployment rate could significantly undershoot the level consistent with price stability. If this occurred, then inflation would likely rise above our objective. At that point, history shows it is very difficult to push the unemployment rate back up just a little bit in order to contain inflation pressures. Looking at the post-war period, whenever the unemployment rate has increased by more than 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points, the economy has always ended up in a full-blown recession with the unemployment rate rising by at least 1.9 percentage points. This is an outcome to avoid, especially given that in an economic downturn the last to be hired are often the first to be fired. The goal is the maximum sustainable level of employment-in other words, the most job opportunities for the most people over the long run.』
『Some of you may be wondering whether the risk of a recession isn’t already quite high? And, if so, doesn’t this imply a need for special care in adjusting monetary policy? After all, the current economic expansion is more than six years old-a bit long in the tooth by post-war standards.』
『Even so, recession risk did not play a major factor in my thinking.』
強気だな。そらまあ正常化着手した直後ですから当たり前ですが。
『Economic expansions don’t simply die of old age. They primarily end either because monetary policy is kept too loose for too long, thereby necessitating a subsequent sharp tightening in monetary policy to prevent a significant inflation overshoot, or because some large adverse shock hits the economy that the central bank cannot easily offset.』
『Mitigating the first risk of being forced to choke off the expansion argues for getting started with policy normalization now rather than holding off. With respect to the second risk of unanticipated shocks, this is obviously very difficult for the central bank to insulate the economy from. Making sure the financial system is robust and resilient is probably the most important thing the central bank can do in this respect.』
ということで金曜にはこんなのがありました。 [外部リンク] The U.S. Economic Outlook and Implications for Monetary Policy January 15, 2016 William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer Remarks at the Economic Leadership Forum, Somerset, New Jersey
『In my remarks, I will discuss the U.S. economic outlook and the implications for U.S. monetary policy. I will focus primarily on last month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) “lift-off” decision-the first increase in the federal funds rate target range in nearly 10 years. I’ll explain what motivated my vote to begin to normalize U.S. monetary policy. I’ll also offer a preliminary assessment of how things are going so far-both with respect to how the U.S. bond market reacted to lift-off and how well our new tools are working as we begin to push up short-term interest rates. Both issues are pertinent, as money market rates have spent a very long time close to zero and we have never attempted to tighten monetary policy with such a large balance sheet and high level of excess reserves. To summarize my conclusions: Generally so far, so good on both fronts.』
『Looking ahead, I’ll talk about what comes next. No surprises here-it depends on the data. As noted in the December FOMC statement, we expect that the normalization of monetary policy will be quite gradual. But, there is no commitment here. The flow of the data?broadly defined-will drive our actions as it influences our assessment of the economic outlook and our view of the stance of monetary policy best suited to achieve our dual mandate objectives of maximum sustainable employment and price stability. As always, what I have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the FOMC or the Federal Reserve System.1』
『In terms of the economic outlook, the situation does not appear to have changed much since the last FOMC meeting.』
と、経済に関しては「12月FOMC以降見通しを変化させるような状況は無い」と来ています。
『Some recent activity indicators have been on the softer side, pointing to a relatively weak fourth quarter for real GDP growth. But this needs to be weighed against the strength evident in the U.S. labor market.』
ということで足元4Q弱めですが労働市場が強い事も考えましょうと来ておりまして。
『I continue to expect that the economy will expand at a pace slightly above its long-term trend in 2016. In other words, I anticipate sufficient economic strength to push the unemployment rate down a bit further and to more fully utilize the nation’s labor resources.』
てな訳で2016年は完全雇用に向けた十分な経済の強さを維持すると見通し強めですな。
・物価に関しては「基調は強い」的な説明をしておりますな
『Turning to inflation, we continue to fall short of our 2 percent objective for the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator. But I take it as a positive sign that the core PCE inflation rate-that is, excluding food and energy-has been quite stable despite the downward pressure being exerted by lower energy prices on the prices of non-energy goods and services, as well as the drop in non-energy import prices from a firmer dollar.』
物価についてですが、PCEコア物価がエネルギー価格の弱さやドル高にもかかわらずに「excluding food and energy-has been quite stable」という指摘をしていまして、物価が弱いという説明ではなくて、基調を見ると強いじゃないですかとどこぞの中央銀行のような話をしております。
・米国経済についてもう少し詳しく
『Going into more detail, U.S. economic activity has areas of both strength and weakness.』
ということで。
『On the stronger side of the ledger, domestic demand is doing reasonably well. In particular, consumption and housing activity continue to expand at a moderate pace. Consumer spending has been supported by solid real disposable income growth, which has been underpinned, in turn, by sturdy job gains and falling energy prices. Residential investment has been slowly increasing for several years and that trend seems likely to continue in 2016. Housing starts are still well below the rate consistent with the nation’s population growth rate, and the fundamentals of housing demand remain positive. Rising employment is likely to boost the household formation rate and low mortgage interest rates should keep housing relatively affordable, despite the ongoing recovery in home prices.』
『Last month’s passage of a fiscal 2016 budget package should also provide support to economic activity. Not only does this budget package reduce uncertainty about the budgetary outlook, but its extension of a number of tax breaks and easing of the caps on domestic and military spending means that fiscal policy in 2016 will likely turn somewhat stimulative.』
財政も景気のを引っ張らなくなっていると。
『On the weaker side, the collapse in energy prices continues to pull down domestic investment in oil and gas drilling projects. Although this adjustment is now well-advanced, I suspect that there remains a further leg down given the sector’s diminished cash flows and the reduced access to credit. In addition, manufacturing remains very soft-hurt by the drop in energy-related investment, an ongoing inventory adjustment and the loss of competitiveness caused by the persistent strength of the U.S. dollar. Even the one bright spot in manufacturing over the past year-the auto sector-seems to be close to a cyclical peak. Thus, I suspect manufacturing will continue to be soft in 2016.』
弱い方では資源価格低迷から関連の設備投資などが落ちるとか、ドル高の製造業に与える悪影響とか。
『Overseas developments, especially with respect to the emerging market economies, pose a risk to the U.S. economic outlook-potentially exerting greater restraint on the demand for U.S. exports and contributing to greater turbulence in global financial markets.』
エマージング経済もリスクですよと。
『Putting these positives and negatives together, the most likely outlook seems to be more of what we have experienced in this expansion-an economy that grows at slightly above a 2 percent annual rate this year.』
でもって纏めは2%少々の成長になるでしょうというのですから結局強めの見通しですな。
・物価に関しては「インフレ期待低下の可能性」を懸念とな
『The inflation outlook also has not changed much. Inflation remains well below the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent objective. In my assessment, this is due mainly to weaker energy prices and the impact of a stronger dollar on non-energy import prices. However, the fact that core measures of inflation are considerably higher than the headline readings, and have been quite stable in recent months, suggests to me that we are likely to see inflation rise once energy prices stop falling and the dollar stops appreciating-clearly neither trend can persist indefinitely. Of course, this assumes that the U.S. economy grows sufficiently rapidly so that pressure on available labor and capital resources continues to increase.』
『With respect to the risks to the inflation outlook, the most concerning is the possibility that inflation expectations become unanchored to the downside.』
インフレ期待低下の可能性を懸念、という話なのですよね。
『This would be problematic were it to occur because inflation expectations are an important driver of actual inflation. If inflation expectations become unanchored to the downside, it would become much more difficult to push inflation back up to the central bank’s objective. Japan’s difficult experience indicates the importance of avoiding such an outcome.』
『For this reason, we closely monitor inflation expectations. Inflation measured by the PCE deflator has been running below the FOMC’s objective since May 2012. A concern is whether these persistent underruns in inflation may be beginning to weigh on inflation expectations. Some surveys of inflation expectations have softened recently. For example, the University of Michigan measure of median long-term household inflation expectations-that is, expected inflation at a five-to ten-year horizon-is currently at 2.6 percent. This is near the very bottom end of its range over the past two decades.』
『The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations also shows softness. The median of 3-year inflation expectations has declined over the past year, falling by 22 basis points to 2.8 percent. While the magnitude of this decline is small, I think it is noteworthy because the current reading is below where we have been during the survey history. Up until July 2014, the median largely stayed in the range from 3.2 to 3.4 percent, and from July 2014 to July 2015 it remained near 3 percent.』
『While it has a short history, I put more weight on the New York Fed’s survey because its methodology should be more robust in accurately assessing consumer inflation expectations.』
でもってここのNY連銀サーベイは消費者のインフレ期待を推測するのに適切だそうです。
『Compared to the more widely followed University of Michigan survey, for example, the New York Fed survey has several advantages. The sample size is larger, most of the people that are interviewed are the same each month, and the inflation expectations question is posed differently to focus the respondent’s attention on inflation rather than on prices. We believe that all these factors lead to a more reliable estimate of inflation expectations.』
サーベイの内容がミシガン大学指数よりも良いそうな。
『Obviously, I didn’t think the degree of weakness we have seen in our survey measure of inflation expectations was of sufficient concern to defer the start of monetary policy normalization.』
『And, as long as the economy continues to grow at an above-trend pace, I expect the increase in resource utilization will be sufficient to push both inflation and inflation expectations higher over time. That said, should the economy unexpectedly weaken, then this fall in inflation expectations would become more concerning.』
『Assuming, as I anticipate, that inflation does move back towards our 2 percent target, I am often asked how tolerant would I be of an overshoot? In other words, is the 2 percent inflation target a ceiling or not? I don’t think of the 2 percent objective as a ceiling.』
2%を越えることを容認しないのかという質問に対して。
『I would be equally intolerant of misses relative to 2 percent in both directions, above or below, with my intolerance growing the further we deviated from our 2 percent objective. We will almost certainly never be precisely at our 2 percent objective for any length of time given all the forces-many of which are not under our control-that influence actual inflation outcomes over a business cycle.』
『Thus, with a neutral monetary policy, my goal would be to spend about the same amount of time slightly above as slightly below our 2 percent objective.』
この先が『Turning now to U.S. monetary policy, why did I favor raising the federal funds rate target last month?』から金融政策ネタになるのですが、時間と量の関係上明日に続きとしますが、基本的に現在の正常化路線を推進しますぜヒャッハーという話をしています。また最後の方ではバランスシートの話もしていまして、FEDの保有資産残高の削減はどこからするのかという点については、とりあえず今すぐ実施するようなレベルの話ではないものの、利上げを確実に実施できるようになると割とあっさり味で削減に着手する可能性もあるかなあという所です、詳しくは明日ということで。
『MEMPHIS, Tenn. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard discussed “Oil Prices, Inflation and U.S. Monetary Policy” at the Economic Club of Memphis on Thursday.』
ということで。
『“The recent movements in crude oil prices are very substantial in historical context,” he said. Oil prices have declined to around $30 per barrel this week from more than $105 per barrel during the summer of 2014, likely due in part to increased supplies from new oil extraction methods that became economically feasible during the 2008-2014 price regime.』
『Oil price movements are an important component of headline inflation, and the declines in crude oil prices since mid-2014 have contributed to very low year-over-year headline inflation in the U.S., Bullard said. He added that once oil prices stabilize, headline inflation should return to the Federal Open Market Committee’s inflation target of 2 percent, although it might take longer than previously thought.』
『“Headline inflation will return to target once oil prices stabilize, but recent further declines in global oil prices are calling into question when such a stabilization may occur,” he said.』
『Bullard also discussed the possibility that inflation expectations are being influenced by the declining oil prices. “Inflation expectations in the U.S. may be falling. If so, this would put downward pressure on inflation,” he said.』
『Overall, however, Bullard suggested that relatively low oil prices remain a net positive for the U.S. economy. “For the macroeconomy as a whole, the relatively low crude oil prices the U.S. is enjoying today are likely a bullish factor,” he said, citing as an example the acceleration in real personal consumption expenditures growth from mid-2014 to mid-2015.』
[外部リンク] Measuring Inflation: The Core Is Rotten An earlier version of this article was delivered as a speech to the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York, New York, May 18, 2011.* Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, July/August 2011, 93(4), pp. 223-33.
ということでテキストはこちら。 [外部リンク] Early Observations on Gradual Monetary Policy Normalization by Eric S. Rosengren, President & Chief Executive Officer Greater Boston Chamber's Government Affairs Forum Boston, Massachusetts January 13, 2016
『Also, since I will be covering a lot of ground and some key charts, data, and nuances of the financial system, I would like to preview my “punch line,” so to speak:
・The economy has reached an important milestone: the central bank raised short-term rates last month, reflecting the significant progress the U.S. economy has made over the course of the last year.
・In terms of the monetary policy actions taken by the Federal Reserve in midDecember, the initial monetary policy tightening was rather uneventful. The effective federal funds rate has largely traded within the new target range. Other short-term rates in the marketplace have moved up as expected, and long-term rates were little changed.
・The future path of the federal funds rate will depend on incoming economic data, most importantly on how that incoming data affects policymakers’ outlook for the economy for the next year or two. I hope the economy continues to improve, so that further normalization is appropriate. It is important, however, to carefully manage risks to the economy, including those emanating from abroad.』
『Rosengren noted the good news on employment, with 292,000 jobs added in December, and an average of 284,000 jobs added per month over the past quarter. However, other news around the start of the year has been less positive, including weak stock markets in much of the world, weak oil and commodity prices, and falling estimates for fourth-quarter real GDP growth in the United States.』
と年初来の動きに警戒感を出していまして、
『“While monetary policy should not overreact to short-term, temporary fluctuations in financial markets, policy makers should take seriously the potential downside risks to their economic forecasts,” he said.』
『Rosengren observed that improvements in the economy “provided the conditions necessary for the Federal Reserve to finally begin removing some of the extraordinary monetary policy accommodation that was the necessary, appropriate, and effective response to the financial crisis, recession, and painfully slow recovery.” The first step in this gradual process was December’s increase in the federal funds rate - the first since the Great Recession. He added that the response to the increase was quite uneventful.』
[外部リンク] Business | 2016年 01月 14日 04:58 JST 米利上げ、年内4回は多過ぎ=シカゴ連銀総裁
またエバンスかと思ってシカゴ連銀のページに行ったのですが。 [外部リンク] Connecting the Dots on Monetary Policy Presented at the Corridor Business Journal in Cedar Rapids, IA. Last Updated: 01/13/16 (URL長いので途中まででリンクしていますがちゃんと飛ぶはず)
ということで、この前のが [外部リンク] Connecting the Dots on Monetary Policy Presented at the Wisconsin Bankers Association in Madison, WI. Last Updated: 01/07/16
と思ってネット版のBloombergで探したのだが上手くヒット出来なかったのですが、昨日の18時34分に配信されていた「New BOJ Transparency May Expose Board Dissent」って記事(記者の解説記事っぽい)に政策委員の立ち位置のチャートがあって、横軸が「DOVISH」と「HAWKISH」なのはいいとして、縦軸の方の下が「FINANCIAL STABILITY」とあってほうほうと思ったら上の方が「2% OR BUST」とあってちょっとウケてしまったのでメモしておきますね!!
