『The Federal Reserve is reluctant to plow ahead with more interest rate hikes because of increased global risks, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans told CNBC on Wednesday.』(上記URL先より、以下同様)
ほうほう。
『Evans spoke a day after central bank Chair Janet Yellen struck a dovish tone compared with recent comments by other Fed officials advocating hiking interest rates.』
『He told CNBC's "Squawk Box" he believes Yellen has made it clear all meetings are live.』
『"I would say the threshold for having confidence that inflation is sustainably moving up towards our 2 percent inflation target is pretty high," he said. "I'd be surprised if we met that condition, myself, in April."』
『The June meeting has been seen as the more likely time for the next rate increase, because Yellen is already set to hold a news briefing after the release of the policy statement. No news conference is scheduled for April and no meeting is scheduled for May.』
というのはCNBCの説明でして、
『"I think moving in June would be on the basis of further improvement in the labor market," Evans said. "[But] I don't think we want to get ahead of ourselves."』
ふむ。
『Evans sees the economy growing at 2 to 2.5 percent this year. "We can [also] drive unemployment a little lower. The labor market is improving, and those are good conditions for the consumer to continue to thrive."』
まあそんな成長見通しを置いているのでしたら・・・・・・・・・・・・
『"I'm a little nervous about business fixed investment," he continued, "[considering] the decline in energy and the fact that we produce energy more now. It's a different type of exposure than we faced 10 or 15 years ago."』
『All in all, Evans concluded: "My assessment is the economy is going to be strong enough [and] we'll be raising rates two times this year. It could well be more if we do better."』
『In my remarks today, I will explain why the Committee anticipates that only gradual increases in the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted in coming years, emphasizing that this guidance should be understood as a forecast for the trajectory of policy rates that the Committee anticipates will prove to be appropriate to achieve its objectives, conditional on the outlook for real economic activity and inflation.』
『Importantly, this forecast is not a plan set in stone that will be carried out regardless of economic developments. Instead, monetary policy will, as always, respond to the economy's twists and turns so as to promote, as best as we can in an uncertain economic environment, the employment and inflation goals assigned to us by the Congress.』
でまあ毎度のプランじゃないよコンディショナルだよという話はいつも通りなのですが、そこに「as best as we can in an uncertain economic environment」とありますので一段の慎重ぶりをアピールしているのだ。
でもってその次に・・・・・・・・・
『The proviso that policy will evolve as needed is especially pertinent today in light of global economic and financial developments since December, which at times have included significant changes in oil prices, interest rates, and stock values.』
と海外経済と国際金融情勢が昨年12月以降不確実性を増しておりましてというお話が出るのだ。
『So far, these developments have not materially altered the Committee's baseline--or most likely--outlook for economic activity and inflation over the medium term.』
ただし、それはベースラインシナリオを変えるものではない。
『Specifically, we continue to expect further labor market improvement and a return of inflation to our 2 percent objective over the next two or three years, consistent with data over recent months. But this is not to say that global developments since the turn of the year have been inconsequential.』
ではどうだと言いますと・・・・・・・・・・・
『In part, the baseline outlook for real activity and inflation is little changed because investors responded to those developments by marking down their expectations for the future path of the federal funds rate, thereby putting downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and cushioning the adverse effects on economic activity.』
『In addition, global developments have increased the risks associated with that outlook.』
キタコレ。
『In light of these considerations, the Committee decided to leave the stance of policy unchanged in both January and March.』
だそうです。
『I will next describe the Committee's baseline economic outlook and the risks that cloud that outlook, emphasizing the FOMC's commitment to adjust monetary policy as needed to achieve our employment and inflation objectives.』
『Recent Developments and the Baseline Outlook』の所の概況は最初の2パラグラフです。
『Readings on the U.S. economy since the turn of the year have been somewhat mixed.』
ということで・・・・・・・・・・・・
『On the one hand, many indicators have been quite favorable. The labor market has added an average of almost 230,000 jobs a month over the past three months. In addition, the unemployment rate has edged down further, more people are joining the workforce as the prospects for finding jobs have improved, and the employment-to-population ratio has increased by almost 1/2 percentage point. Consumer spending appears to be expanding at a moderate pace, driven by solid income gains, improved household balance sheets, and the ongoing effects of the increases in wealth and declines in oil prices over the past few years. The housing market continues its gradual recovery, and fiscal policy at all levels of government is now modestly boosting economic activity after exerting a considerable drag in recent years.』
堅調なのは労働市場、個人消費、住宅市場、財政。
『On the other hand, manufacturing and net exports have continued to be hard hit by slow global growth and the significant appreciation of the dollar since 2014. These same global developments have also weighed on business investment by limiting firms' expected sales, thereby reducing their demand for capital goods; partly as a result, recent indicators of capital spending and business sentiment have been lackluster. In addition, business investment has been held down by the collapse in oil prices since late 2014, which is driving an ongoing steep decline in drilling activity. Low oil prices have also resulted in large-scale layoffs in the energy sector and adverse spillovers to output and employment in industries that support energy production.』
『On balance, overall employment has continued to grow at a solid pace so far this year, in part because domestic household spending has been sufficiently strong to offset the drag coming from abroad. Looking forward however, we have to take into account the potential fallout from recent global economic and financial developments, which have been marked by bouts of turbulence since the turn of the year.』
『For a time, equity prices were down sharply, oil traded at less than $30 per barrel, and many currencies were depreciating against the dollar. Although prices in these markets have since largely returned to where they stood at the start of the year, in other respects economic and financial conditions remain less favorable than they did back at the time of the December FOMC meeting.』
『In particular, foreign economic growth now seems likely to be weaker this year than previously expected, and earnings expectations have declined. By themselves, these developments would tend to restrain U.S. economic activity. But those effects have been at least partially offset by downward revisions to market expectations for the federal funds rate that in turn have put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, including mortgage rates, thereby helping to support spending.』
とまあそういうことで、
『For these reasons, I anticipate that the overall fallout for the U.S. economy from global market developments since the start of the year will most likely be limited, although this assessment is subject to considerable uncertainty.』
なのであくまでも「不確実性は強い」という話で慎重になっているというお話をしています。
○リスク要因の説明部分ではインフレ期待の不安定化(下がる方)へのリスクを強調しているのでハト的
次が『Risks to the Outlook for Real Economic Activity』である。
『One concern pertains to the pace of global growth, which is importantly influenced by developments in China. There is a consensus that China's economy will slow in the coming years as it transitions away from investment toward consumption and from exports toward domestic sources of growth. There is much uncertainty, however, about how smoothly this transition will proceed and about the policy framework in place to manage any financial disruptions that might accompany it. These uncertainties were heightened by market confusion earlier this year over China's exchange rate policy.』
『A second concern relates to the prospects for commodity prices, particularly oil. For the United States, low oil prices, on net, likely will boost spending and economic activity over the next few years because we are still a major oil importer. But the apparent negative reaction of financial markets to recent declines in oil prices may in part reflect market concern that the price of oil was nearing a financial tipping point for some countries and energy firms. In the case of countries reliant on oil exports, the result might be a sharp cutback in government spending; for energy-related firms, it could entail significant financial strains and increased layoffs. In the event oil prices were to fall again, either development could have adverse spillover effects to the rest of the global economy.』
実体経済のリスクとしては中国経済のリスクと原油価格下落の継続による関連産業への悪影響や、それに関連する金融市場の動揺を挙げていますがそっちよりも『Risks to the Inflation Outlook』の方が興味深い。
『The inflation outlook has also become somewhat more uncertain since the turn of the year, in part for reasons related to risks to the outlook for economic growth.』
ということで経済見通しのリスクに対応して物価の見通しも「somewhat more uncertain」と来ているので、最近の地区連銀総裁発言などから見たら対照をなしそうな慎重さ。
『To the extent that recent financial market turbulence signals an increased chance of a further slowing of growth abroad, oil prices could resume falling, and the dollar could start rising again. And if foreign developments were to adversely affect the U.S. economy by more than I expect, then the pace of labor market improvement would probably be slower, which would also tend to restrain growth in both wages and prices.』
エライ警戒的。
『But even if such developments were to occur, they would, in my view, only delay the return of inflation to 2 percent, provided that inflation expectations remain anchored.』
『Unfortunately, the stability of longer-run inflation expectations cannot be taken for granted.』
キター!!
『During the 1970s, inflation expectations rose markedly because the Federal Reserve allowed actual inflation to ratchet up persistently in response to economic disruptions--a development that made it more difficult to stabilize both inflation and employment. With considerable effort, however, the FOMC gradually succeeded in bringing inflation back down to a low and stable level over the course of the 1980s and early 1990s. Since this time, measures of longer-run inflation expectations derived from both surveys and financial markets have been remarkably stable, making it easier to keep actual inflation relatively close to 2 percent despite large movements in oil prices and pronounced swings in the unemployment rate.』
ほうほうそれでそれで?
『Lately, however, there have been signs that inflation expectations may have drifted down.』
キタコレ!!!!
『Market-based measures of longer-run inflation compensation have fallen markedly over the past year and half, although they have recently moved up modestly from their all-time lows. Similarly, the measure of longer-run inflation expectations reported in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers has drifted down somewhat over the past few years and now stands at the lower end of the narrow range in which it has fluctuated since the late 1990s.』
インフレ期待の低下懸念をエライ勢いで説明しています。
『The shifts in these measures notwithstanding, the argument that inflation expectations have actually fallen is far from conclusive. Analysis carried out at the Fed and elsewhere suggests that the decline in market-based measures of inflation compensation has largely been driven by movements in inflation risk premiums and liquidity concerns rather than by shifts in inflation expectations.6』
『In addition, the longer-run measure of inflation expectations from the Michigan Survey has historically exhibited some sensitivity to fluctuations in current gasoline prices, which suggests that this measure may be an unreliable guide to movements in trend inflation under current circumstances.7』
『Moreover, measures of longer-run expected inflation gleaned from surveys of business and financial economists, such as those reported in the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the Blue Chip survey, and the Survey of Primary Dealers, have largely moved sideways in the past year or two.』
『Taken together, these results suggest that my baseline assumption of stable expectations is still justified.』
てなことで安定しているのではという例も出していますが、
『Nevertheless, the decline in some indicators has heightened the risk that this judgment could be wrong. If so, the return to 2 percent inflation could take longer than expected and might require a more accommodative stance of monetary policy than would otherwise be appropriate.8』
ということで、インフレ期待のアンカーについて強調しているのが今回の特徴かなあと思います。
なおその後に、
『Despite the declines in some indicators of expected inflation, we also need to consider the opposite risk that we are underestimating the speed at which inflation will return to our 2 percent objective.』
とありまして中和はしているのですがその前の部分の印象が強いですよね。
『Economic growth here and abroad could turn out to be stronger than expected, and, as the past few weeks have demonstrated, oil prices can rise as well as fall. More generally, economists' understanding of inflation is far from perfect, and it would not be all that surprising if inflation was to rise more quickly than expected over the next several years. For these reasons, we must continue to monitor incoming wage and price data carefully.』
『Given the risks to the outlook, I consider it appropriate for the Committee to proceed cautiously in adjusting policy. This caution is especially warranted because, with the federal funds rate so low, the FOMC's ability to use conventional monetary policy to respond to economic disturbances is asymmetric.』
『If economic conditions were to strengthen considerably more than currently expected, the FOMC could readily raise its target range for the federal funds rate to stabilize the economy. By contrast, if the expansion was to falter or if inflation was to remain stubbornly low, the FOMC would be able to provide only a modest degree of additional stimulus by cutting the federal funds rate back to near zero.9』
『One must be careful, however, not to overstate the asymmetries affecting monetary policy at the moment. Even if the federal funds rate were to return to near zero, the FOMC would still have considerable scope to provide additional accommodation. In particular, we could use the approaches that we and other central banks successfully employed in the wake of the financial crisis to put additional downward pressure on long-term interest rates and so support the economy--specifically, forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate and increases in the size or duration of our holdings of long-term securities.10』
『While these tools may entail some risks and costs that do not apply to the federal funds rate, we used them effectively to strengthen the recovery from the Great Recession, and we would do so again if needed.11』
『Financial market participants appear to recognize the FOMC's data-dependent approach because incoming data surprises typically induce changes in market expectations about the likely future path of policy, resulting in movements in bond yields that act to buffer the economy from shocks. This mechanism serves as an important "automatic stabilizer" for the economy.』
『As I have already noted, the decline in market expectations since December for the future path of the federal funds rate and accompanying downward pressure on long-term interest rates have helped to offset the contractionary effects of somewhat less favorable financial conditions and slower foreign growth. In addition, the public's expectation that the Fed will respond to economic disturbances in a predictable manner to reduce or offset their potential harmful effects means that the public is apt to react less adversely to such shocks--a response which serves to stabilize the expectations underpinning hiring and spending decisions.12』
これはどうなのかと思うというのはさっき書いた通りですが、
『Such a stabilizing effect is one consequence of effective communication by the FOMC about its outlook for the economy and how, based on that outlook, policy is expected to evolve to achieve our economic objectives.』
というのはどうも自分で自分をコミュニケーションの罠に追い込んでいる感じがして懸念されます。
『I continue to strongly believe that monetary policy is most effective when the FOMC is forthcoming in addressing economic and financial developments such as those I have discussed in these remarks, and when we speak clearly about how such developments may affect the outlook and the expected path of policy. I have done my best to do so today, in the time you have kindly granted me.』
[外部リンク] Transcript of Chair Yellen’s Press Conference March 16, 2016
・海外経済の見通しガーが多い言い訳
『CHAIR YELLEN: Good afternoon. Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. Our decision to keep this accommodative policy stance reflects both our assessment of the economic outlook and the risks associated with that outlook. The Committee’s baseline expectations for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation have not changed much since December: With appropriate monetary policy, we continue to expect moderate economic growth, further labor market improvement and a return of inflation to our 2 percent objective in two to three years. However, global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks. Against this backdrop, the Committee judged it prudent to maintain the current policy stance at today’s meeting. I will come back to our policy decision momentarily, but first let me review recent economic developments and the outlook.』
ということでお話が始まるのですが、冒頭で早速「global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks」とか言ってまして、国内要因というよりも海外要因ですよあと金融環境ね、という話をしているのが特徴なのですが、これ言い出すと政策反応関数が分かりにくくなってしまうのであまり良い傾向とは思えないのですけどねえ。
『The improvement in employment conditions so far this year has occurred as economic growth appears to have picked up from the modest pace seen in the fourth quarter of last year. Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate, supported by continued job gains and increases in inflation-adjusted incomes. In contrast, business investment has been weak, in part reflecting further reductions in oil drilling as a result of low oil prices. Net exports also remain soft as a consequence of subdued foreign growth and the earlier appreciation of the dollar. Looking ahead, the Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will continue to expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen. 』
『Ongoing economic growth and additional strengthening in labor market conditions are important factors underpinning the inflation outlook. Overall consumer price inflation--as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures--stepped up to 1-1/4 percent over the 12 months ending in January, as the sharp decline in energy prices around the end of 2014 dropped out of the year-over-year figures. Core inflation (which excludes energy and food prices) has also picked up, although it remains to be seen if this firming will be sustained. In particular, the earlier declines in energy prices and appreciation of the dollar could well continue to weigh on overall consumer prices. But once these transitory influences fade, and as the labor market strengthens further, the Committee expects inflation to rise to 2 percent over the next two to three years. 』
『The Committee’s inflation outlook rests importantly on its judgment that longer-run inflation expectations remain reasonably well anchored. However, the stability of longer-run inflation expectations cannot be taken for granted. Survey-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months although some remain near historically low levels. Market-based measures of inflation compensation also remain low. Movements in these indicators reflect many factors and therefore may not provide an accurate reading on changes in the inflation expectations that are most relevant for wage and price setting. Nonetheless, our statement continues to emphasize that, in considering future policy decisions, we will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward our inflation goal.』
『Since the turn of the year, concerns about global economic prospects have led to increased financial market volatility and somewhat tighter financial conditions in the United States, although financial conditions have improved notably more recently.』
『In addition, economic growth abroad appears to be running at a somewhat softer pace than previously expected. These unanticipated developments, however, have not resulted in material changes to the Committee’s baseline outlook. 』
でもってその理由が・・・・・・・・
『One reason for this is that market expectations for the path of policy interest rates have moved down, and the accompanying decline in longer-term interest rates should help cushion any possible adverse effects on domestic economic activity. 』
『Indeed, while stock prices have fallen slightly since the December meeting and spreads of investmentgrade corporate bond yields over those on comparable-maturity Treasury securities have risen, mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs have moved lower. Of course, the Committee will continue to monitor these developments closely and will adjust the stance of monetary policy as needed to foster our goals of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. 』
株が下がってスプレッドが拡大しているけれどもモーゲージ金利や企業借入コストは低下しているとな。
・でもって最後に金融政策だがこれはハトチックに読めます罠
『Returning to monetary policy, as I noted earlier, the Committee decided to maintain its target range for the federal funds rate. This decision partly reflects the implications for the U.S. economy of the global economic and financial developments I just mentioned.』
ということで海外ガーとファイナンシャルコンディションガーである。
『In addition, proceeding cautiously in removing policy accommodation at this time will allow us to verify that the labor market is continuing to strengthen despite the risks from abroad. Such caution is appropriate given that short-term interest rates are still near zero, which means that monetary policy has greater scope to respond to upside than to downside changes in the outlook. 』
『As we indicated in our statement, the Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. This expectation is consistent with the view that the neutral nominal federal funds rate--defined as the value of the federal funds rate that would be neither expansionary nor contractionary if the economy was operating near potential--is currently low by historical standards and is likely to rise only gradually over time.』
『The low level of the neutral federal funds rate may be partially attributable to a range of persistent economic headwinds that weigh on aggregate demand, including developments abroad, a subdued pace of household formation, and meager productivity growth.』
というのが理由だと。
『There is considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of the neutral funds rate over time. However, if these headwinds abate, as we expect, the neutral federal funds rate should gradually move higher as well.』
『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace despite the global economic and financial developments of recent months.』(今回)
『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that labor market conditions improved further even as economic growth slowed late last year.』(前回)
今回は景気の現状判断について「expanding at a moderate pace」と格上げになっておりまして、その一方で海外景気と金融動向についてはdespite以下にわざわざ記載されるように(懸念としての)格上げになっています(後でもこの部分は示されます)。
『Household spending has been increasing at a moderate rate, and the housing sector has improved further; however, business fixed investment and net exports have been soft.』(今回)
『Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at moderate rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; however, net exports have been soft and inventory investment slowed.』(前回)
企業の固定設備投資に関して判断が下方修正されていまして、あとはヨコです。
『A range of recent indicators, including strong job gains, points to additional strengthening of the labor market.』(今回)
『A range of recent labor market indicators, including strong job gains, points to some additional decline in underutilization of labor resources.』(前回)
アタクシはここをみて実は「おー」と思ったのですが、労働市場に関する現状判断部分に関して「underutilization of labor resources」という労働市場のスラックを示す部分の表現が削除されていまして、これは労働市場に関するアセスメントとしては結構象徴的に強くなっていると思うのですけれども過大評価でしょうかねえ。
『Inflation picked up in recent months; however, it continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports.』(今回)
『Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports.』(前回)
物価の現状に関しては「2%よりも低い水準」というアセスメントは同じですが、今回は「picked up in recent months」と入っていて、まあ指標もそういう推移だから当然ちゃあ当然なのですが、労働市場の上記の表現変化も合わせますと、グローバル経済と金融市場への懸念とか企業の投資の所を下方修正しているよりもこちらの上方修正の方が気になるアタクシだったりするのでした。
『Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.』(今回)
『Market-based measures of inflation compensation declined further; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.』(前回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen.』(今回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen.』(前回)
グラデュアルな金融政策の調整によって経済はモデレートな成長軌道を維持する云々は全文一致。
『However, global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.』(今回)
『Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of the further declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook.』(前回)
前回「今後の動向を注意してリスクバランスへの影響を確認する」としていた海外経済と海外金融動向については今回リスク要因に格上げになっています。それから物価の現状判断に関しては、物価が足元で弱い状態であることについて「further declines in energy prices」から「earlier declines in energy prices,」となっていて、まあこれは単に原油価格が落ち着いてきたことが背景にあるとは思いますが、先行きという意味ではこの一時的現象が今後改善してくるでしょうというような話になるんでしょうなあという所で。
・第3パラグラフ:書き出しが変わっているのですが
『Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.』(今回)
『Given the economic outlook, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.』(前回)
金利政策の部分が据え置きなのは良いとして、最初の所が「Given the economic outlook」から「Against this backdrop」になっているのはどういうニュアンスの変化を意味するのかがアタクシ頭が悪いのでピンとこないのですが誰か教えてジェネラル。
・第4パラグラフ:今後の金融政策がどうのこうのの部分は見事に全文一致
『In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.』(今回)
『In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.』(前回)
見事に全文一致なので単に並べて張ってみただけという手抜きバージョン。
・第5パラグラフ:バランスシート政策に関する文言も全文一致
『The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.』(今回)
『The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.』(前回)
全文一致なので手抜きである。
・第6パラグラフ:ジョージおばちゃん利上げ提案キタコレ
さすがのカンサスクオリティ。
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent.』(今回)
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.』(前回)
[外部リンク] Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer At the "Policy Challenges in an Interconnected World" 32nd Annual National Association for Business Economics Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C. March 7, 2016 Reflections on Macroeconomics Then and Now
長期停滞論に関する言及部分です。
『Secular stagnation: During World War II in the United States, many economists feared that at the end of the war, the economy would return to high pre-war levels of unemployment--because with the end of the war, demobilization, and the massive reduction that would take place in the defense budget, there would not be enough demand to maintain full employment.』
ほほう。
『Thus was born or renewed the concept of secular stagnation--the view that the economy could find itself permanently in a situation of low demand, less than full employment, and low growth.10 That is not what happened after World War II, and the thought of secular stagnation was correspondingly laid aside, in part because of the growing confidence that intelligent economic policies--fiscal and monetary--could be relied on to help keep the economy at full employment with a reasonable growth rate.』
ということで長期停滞論に関しては昔から折に触れて指摘されている論点と。
『Recently, Larry Summers has forcefully restated the secular stagnation hypothesis, and argued that it accounts for the current slowness of economic growth in the United States and the rest of the industrialized world.』
ということでサマーズの長期停滞論に関して。
『The theoretical case for secular stagnation in the sense of a shortage of demand is tied to the question of the level of the interest rate that would be needed to generate a situation of full employment. If the equilibrium interest rate is negative, or very small, the economy is likely to find itself growing slowly, and frequently encountering the zero lower bound on the interest rate.』
『Research has shown a declining trend in estimates of the equilibrium interest rate. That finding has become more firmly established since the start of the Great Recession and the global financial crisis.11 Moreover, the level of the equilibrium interest rate seems likely to rise only gradually to a longer-run level that would still be quite low by historical standards.』
『What factors determine the equilibrium interest rate? Fundamentally, the balance of saving and investment demands. Several trends have been cited as possible factors contributing to a decline in the long-run equilibrium real rate. One likely factor is persistent weakness in aggregate demand.』
『Among the many reasons for that, as Larry Summers has noted, is that the amount of physical capital that the revolutionary information technology firms with high stock market valuations have needed is remarkably small.』
『The slowdown of productivity growth, which as already mentioned has been a prominent and deeply concerning feature of the past six years, is another important factor.12』
『Others have pointed to demographic trends resulting in there being a larger share of the population in age cohorts with high saving rates.13』
『Some have also pointed to high saving rates in many emerging market countries, coupled with a lack of suitable domestic investment opportunities in those countries, as putting downward pressure on rates in advanced economies--the global savings glut hypothesis advanced by Ben Bernanke and others at the Fed about a decade ago.14』
『Whatever the cause, other things being equal, a lower level of the long-run equilibrium real rate suggests that the frequency and duration of future episodes in which monetary policy is constrained by the ZLB will be higher than in the past.』
『Prior to the crisis, some research suggested that such episodes were likely to be relatively infrequent and generally short lived.15 The past several years certainly require us to reconsider that basic assumption. Moreover, recent experience in the United States and other countries has taught us that conducting monetary policy at the effective lower bound is challenging.16 And while unconventional policy tools such as forward guidance and asset purchases have been extremely helpful and effective, all central banks would prefer a situation with positive interest rates, restoring their ability to use the more traditional interest rate tool of monetary policy.17』
『The answer to the question "Will the equilibrium interest rate remain at today's low levels permanently?" is also that we do not know. Many of the factors that determine the equilibrium interest rate, particularly productivity growth, are extremely difficult to forecast. At present, it looks likely that the equilibrium interest rate will remain low for the policy-relevant future, but there have in the past been both long swings and short-term changes in what can be thought of as equilibrium real rates.』
『Eventually, history will give us the answer. But it is critical to emphasize that history's answer will depend also on future policies, monetary and other, notably including fiscal policy.』
『At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB took the following monetary policy decisions:』
ということで色々と打ち込むの巻。
『(1)The interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem will be decreased by 5 basis points to 0.00%, starting from the operation to be settled on 16 March 2016.
(2)The interest rate on the marginal lending facility will be decreased by 5 basis points to 0.25%, with effect from 16 March 2016.
(3)The interest rate on the deposit facility will be decreased by 10 basis points to -0.40%, with effect from 16 March 2016.』
『(5)Investment grade euro-denominated bonds issued by non-bank corporations established in the euro area will be included in the list of assets that are eligible for regular purchases.』
『(6)A new series of four targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO II), each with a maturity of four years, will be launched, starting in June 2016. Borrowing conditions in these operations can be as low as the interest rate on the deposit facility.』
[外部リンク] Introductory statement to the press conference
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Vitor Constancio, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 10 March 2016
・冒頭説明から少々
『Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we have conducted a thorough review of the monetary policy stance, in which we also took into account the new macroeconomic projections by our staff extending into the year 2018. As a result, the Governing Council has decided on a set of measures in the pursuit of its price stability objective.』
『This comprehensive package will exploit the synergies between the different instruments and has been calibrated to further ease financing conditions, stimulate new credit provision and thereby reinforce the momentum of the euro area’s economic recovery and accelerate the return of inflation to levels below, but close to, 2%.』
ここも毎度の追加緩和での理屈になりますが、今回は特に社債買入ネタを投下したので、「further ease financing conditions, stimulate new credit provision」というのに説得力一応増すの巻。
『First, as regards the key ECB interest rates, we decided to lower the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem by 5 basis points to 0.00% and the rate on the marginal lending facility by 5 basis points to 0.25%. The rate on the deposit facility was lowered by 10 basis points to -0.40%.』
これはさっきの通り。
『Second, we decided to expand the monthly purchases under our asset purchase programme from ユーロ60 billion at present to ユーロ80 billion. They are intended to run until the end of March 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.』
増額はしているものの、時間軸的な時期は2017年3月のままなのね。
『To ensure the continued smooth implementation of our asset purchases, we also decided to increase the issuer and issue share limits for the purchases of securities issued by eligible international organisations and multilateral development banks from 33% to 50%.』
買入にあたって買入適格の国際関連機関等の買入限度を33%から50%に拡大するそうな。
『Third, we decided to include investment-grade euro-denominated bonds issued by non-bank corporations established in the euro area in the list of assets that are eligible for regular purchases under a new corporate sector purchase programme.』
キタコレ。
『This will further strengthen the pass-through of our asset purchases to the financing conditions of the real economy. Purchases under the new programme will start towards the end of the second quarter of this year.』
ということで、ここの部分に「further strengthen the pass-through of our asset purchases」とお話をしていますので、利下げとか買入拡大とかしていますが、実際問題としてはこっちに期待しているんじゃネーノと思う訳で、全方面にバズーカを撃っているように見せてはいますけれども、実際問題としては金利幅10bpだしコリドア却って広がっているし、攻撃正面は信用緩和のような気がするんですけどどうなんでしょうかねえ(会見でもうちょっと見えるかもしれませんが、会見はさっきからBGMで流しているだけなのでちゃんと聞いていないです、汗)。
『Fourth, we decided to launch a new series of four targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO II), starting in June 2016, each with a maturity of four years. These new operations will reinforce the ECB’s accommodative monetary policy stance and will strengthen the transmission of monetary policy by further incentivising bank lending to the real economy.』
ほうほうそれでそれで?
『Counterparties will be entitled to borrow up to 30% of the stock of eligible loans as at 31 January 2016. The interest rate under TLTRO II will be fixed over the life of each operation, at the rate on the Eurosystem’s main refinancing operations prevailing at the time of take-up.』
『For banks whose net lending exceeds a benchmark, the rate applied to the TLTRO II will be lower, and can be as low as the interest rate on the deposit facility prevailing at the time of take-up. There will be no requirement for mandatory early repayments under TLTRO II, and switches from TLTRO I will be allowed.』
『Finally, looking ahead, taking into account the current outlook for price stability, the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases.』
必要ならばさらなる措置もしますというのはいつもの話なのでこれは別に変った話ではない。
『Separate press releases with further details of the measures taken by the Governing Council will be published this afternoon at 15:30 CET.』
『Adding to the measures taken since June 2014, with today’s comprehensive package of monetary policy decisions we are providing substantial monetary stimulus to counteract heightened risks to the ECB’s price stability objective. While very low or even negative inflation rates are unavoidable over the next few months, as a result of movements in oil prices, it is crucial to avoid second-round effects by securing the return of inflation to levels below, but close to, 2% without undue delay.』
『The Governing Council will continue to monitor very closely the evolution of the outlook for price stability over the period ahead.』
まあこれはお題目みたいなもん。
・経済物価の部分から少々
『Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis.』
ということで以下の部分をちょっと拝読。
『Euro area real GDP growth was confirmed at 0.3%, quarter on quarter, in the fourth quarter of 2015, supported by domestic demand, while being dampened by a negative contribution from net exports. The most recent survey data point to weaker than expected growth momentum at the beginning of this year. Looking ahead, we expect the economic recovery to proceed at a moderate pace.』
『Domestic demand should be further supported by our monetary policy measures and their favourable impact on financial conditions, as well as by continued employment gains benefiting from past structural reforms. Moreover, the low price of oil should provide additional support for households’ real disposable income and private consumption, as well as corporate profitability and investment. In addition, the fiscal stance in the euro area is slightly expansionary, partly reflecting measures in support of refugees.』
『However, the economic recovery in the euro area continues to be dampened by subdued growth prospects in emerging markets, volatile financial markets, the necessary balance sheet adjustments in a number of sectors and the sluggish pace of implementation of structural reforms.』
まあこれは今に始まった話ではないようにも思えますが。
『This outlook is broadly reflected in the March 2016 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual real GDP increasing by 1.4% in 2016, 1.7% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018. Compared with the December 2015 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for real GDP growth has been revised slightly down, mainly reflecting the weakened growth prospects for the global economy.』
スタッフの成長見通しは低下したと。
『The risks to the euro area growth outlook remain tilted to the downside. They relate in particular to the heightened uncertainties regarding developments in the global economy, as well as to broader geopolitical risks.』
成長見通しのリスクがダウンサイドに寄っているというのも毎度同じ。
『According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation was -0.2% in February 2016, compared with 0.3% in January. All main HICP components contributed to this decline.』
物価はヘロヘロ。
『Looking ahead, on the basis of current futures prices for energy, inflation rates are expected to remain at negative levels in the coming months and to pick up later in 2016.』
あちゃー。
『Thereafter, supported by our monetary policy measures and the expected economic recovery, inflation rates should recover further.』
金融政策の効果でその先は上がっていくんですとよ。まあそうだと良いですね(棒読み)という感じですが。
『The Governing Council will closely monitor price-setting behaviour and wage developments in the euro area, paying particular attention to ensure that the current low inflation environment does not become entrenched in second-round effects on wage and price-setting.』
『This broad pattern is also reflected in the March 2016 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual HICP inflation at 0.1% in 2016, 1.3% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018. In comparison with the December 2015 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for HICP inflation has been revised down, mainly reflecting the fall in oil prices over recent months.』
[外部リンク] Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer At the "Policy Challenges in an Interconnected World" 32nd Annual National Association for Business Economics Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C. March 7, 2016 Reflections on Macroeconomics Then and Now
前半はパス(面白いんですけど)しまして後半から参ります。前半はMacroeconomics Then and NowのうちのThenでここからがNowとなっていまして、
『Well, that was then, and many of the problems we face in our economy now relate to the changes in the stylized facts about the behavior of the economy: Every one of Kaldor's stylized facts is no longer true, and unfortunately the changes are mostly in a direction that complicates the formulation of economic policy.6』
『While the basic approach outlined so far remains valid, and can be used to address many macroeconomic policy issues, I would like briefly to take up several topics in more detail. Some of them are issues that have remained central to the macroeconomic agenda over the past 50 years, some have to my regret fallen off the agenda, and others are new to the agenda.』
ということで課題が並んでいるのでこちらが今の論点ということで。
・フィリップス曲線はワークしているよという説明
『Inflation and unemployment:』というのが最初のお題。
『Estimated Phillips curves appear to be flatter than they were estimated to be many years ago--in terms of the textbooks, Phillips curves appear to be closer to what used to be called the Keynesian case (flat Phillips curve) than to the classical case (vertical Phillips curve). Since the U.S. economy is now below our 2 percent inflation target, and since unemployment is in the vicinity of full employment, it is sometimes argued that the link between unemployment and inflation must have been broken.』
『I don't believe that. Rather the link has never been very strong, but it exists, and we may well at present be seeing the first stirrings of an increase in the inflation rate--something that we would like to happen.』
『The rate of productivity growth in the United States and in much of the world has fallen dramatically in the past 20 years. The table shows calculated rates of annual productivity growth for the United States over three periods: 1952 to 1973; 1974 to 2007; and the most recent period, 2008 to 2015. After having been 3 percent and 2.1 percent in the first two periods, the annual rate of productivity growth has fallen to 1.2 percent in the period since the start of the global financial crisis.』
生産性が低下してきているということで・・・・・・・・
『The right guide to thinking in this case is given by a famous Herbert Stein line: "The difference between a growth rate of 1 percent and 2 percent is 100 percent." Why? Productivity growth is a major determinant of long-term growth. At a 1 percent growth rate, it takes income 70 years to double. At a 2 percent growth rate, it takes 35 years to double.』
『That is to say, that with a growth rate of 1 percent per capita, it takes two generations for per capita income to double; at a 2 percent per capita growth rate, it takes one generation for per capita income to double. That is a massive difference, one that would very likely have severe consequences for the national mood, and possibly for economic policy.』
『That is to say, there are few issues more important for the future of our economy, and those of every other country, than the rate of productivity growth.』
『At this stage, we simply do not know what will happen to productivity growth.Robert Gordon of Northwestern University has just published an extremely interesting and pessimistic book that argues we will have to accept the fact that productivity will not grow in future at anything like the rates of the period before 1973. Others look around and see impressive changes in technology and cannot believe that productivity growth will not move back closer to the higher levels of yesteryear.7』
『A great deal of work is taking place to evaluate the data, but so far there is little evidence that data difficulties account for a significant part of the decline in productivity growth as calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.8』
『The ZLB and the effectiveness of monetary policy:』というお題ですが・・・・・・
『From December 2008 to December 2015, the federal funds rate target set by the Fed was a range of 0 to 1/4 percent, a range of rates that was described as the ZLB (zero lower bound).9 Between December 2008 and December 2014, the Fed engaged in QE--quantitative easing--through a variety of programs. Empirical work done at the Fed and elsewhere suggests that QE worked in the sense that it reduced interest rates other than the federal funds rate, and particularly seems to have succeeded in driving down longer-term rates, which are the rates most relevant to spending decisions.』
ゼロ金利制約の中でQEは効果を出しましたという話はまあ当然にされますわな。
『Critics have argued that QE has gradually become less effective over the years, and should no longer be used.It is extremely difficult to appraise the effectiveness of a program all of whose parameters have been announced at the beginning of the program.』
QEが累積すると効果が無くなる、という反対論があるが・・・・・・・・
『But I regard it as significant with respect to the effectiveness of QE that the taper tantrum in 2013, apparently caused by a belief that the Fed was going to wind down its purchases sooner than expected, had a major effect on interest rates.』
『More recently, critics have argued that QE, together with negative interest rates, is no longer effective in either Japan or in the euro zone.That case has not yet been empirically established, and I believe that central banks still have the capacity through QE and other measures to run expansionary monetary policies, even at the zero lower bound.』
『There was once a great deal of work on the optimal monetary-fiscal policy mix. The topic was interesting and the analysis persuasive. Nonetheless the subject seems to be disappearing from the public dialogue; perhaps in ascendance is the notion that--except in extremis, as in 2009--activist fiscal policy should not be used at all. Certainly, it is easier for a central bank to change its policies than for a Treasury or Finance Ministry to do so, but it remains a pity that the fiscal lever seems to have been disabled.』
機動性がどうのこうのの話はまあそうですねという所で
・金融セクターの安定性
次が『The financial sector:』ですな。
『Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff's book, This Time Is Different, must have been written largely before the start of the great financial crisis.』
そう来たか。
『I find their evidence that a recession accompanied by a financial crisis is likely to be much more serious than an ordinary recession persuasive, but the point remains contentious. Even in the case of the Great Recession, it is possible that the U.S. recession got a second wind when the euro-zone crisis worsened in 2011. But no one should forget the immensity of the financial crisis that the U.S. economy and the world went through following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers--and no one should forget that such things could happen again.』
金融危機を起こさせないことが重要というのはまあ順当な論点。
『The subsequent tightening of the financial regulatory system under the Dodd-Frank Act was essential, and the complaints about excessive regulation and excessive demands for banks to hold capital betray at best a very short memory.』
ここでしらっと金融規制による金融引き締め効果について言及しているのがチャーミング。
『We, the official sector and particularly the regulatory authorities, do have an obligation to try to minimize the regulatory and other burdens placed on the private sector by the official sector--but we have a no less important obligation to try to prevent another financial crisis. And we should also remember that the shadow banking system played an important role in the propagation of the financial crisis, and endeavor to reduce the riskiness of that system.』
『The economy and the price of oil:』というのが次でして・・・・・・・・・・
『For some time, at least since the United States became an oil importer, it has been believed that a low price of oil is good for the economy.』
と最初はトータルプラスという話をしていますが、
『So when the price of oil began its descent below $100 a barrel, we kept looking for an oil-price-cut dividend. But that dividend has been hard to discern in the macroeconomic data. Part of the reason is that as a result of the rapid expansion of the production of oil from shale, total U.S. oil production had risen rapidly, and so a larger part of the economy was adversely affected by the decline in the price of oil. Another part is that investment in the equipment and structures needed for shale oil production had become an important component of aggregate U.S. investment, and that component began a rapid decline. For these reasons, although the United States has remained an oil importer, the decrease in the world price of oil had a mixed effect on U.S. gross domestic product.』
ということで急速な下げによる悪影響も指摘して、「 mixed effect on U.S. gross domestic product」としています。
『There is reason to believe that when the price of oil stabilizes, and U.S. shale oil production reaches its new equilibrium, the overall effect of the decline in the price of oil will be seen to have had a positive effect on aggregate demand in the United States, since lower energy prices are providing a noticeable boost to the real incomes of households.』
