『一方、標準的な経済学においては、理論的な立場から、長期的に最適なインフレ率はマイナスまたは0%であるといった主張がなされてきた。この点について、マネタリストの重鎮Friedman(1969)は、取引手段としての貨幣の鋳造費用が無視できるほど小さい場合、貨幣保有の限界効用がゼロとなるように名目金利をゼロにするような金融政策――いわゆる「フリードマン・ルール」――が最適であると主張した。この主張は、実質金利が長期的にプラスの値をとるならば、マイナスのインフレ率(デフレ)が望ましいことを意味する。実務家にとってはにわかに受け入れがたい主張であるが、貨幣を明示的に取り入れた多くの理論分析で、フリードマン・ルールが最適であるという結論が導かれてきた(Chari, Christiano, and Kehoe(1996))。』
「実務家にとってはにわかに受け入れがたい主張であるが」と入れているのがお洒落。
『例えば、新古典派成長モデルにおいては、インフレが家計の消費活動や労働供給に関する意思決定を歪めることが指摘されている(例えば、Cooley and Hansen(1989))。インフレは、貨幣の実質価値を目減りさせるため、その保有者(債権者)である家計から発行者(債務者)である中央銀行、ひいては政府へ資源を移転させることになる(貨幣保有に対するインフレ税)。仮に政府がそうして得た資源(インフレ税収)を家計に還元(再移転)するとしても、家計は、貨幣の実質価値の減少を通じて割高となった労働供給・消費から、割安となった余暇へ行動をシフトさせるため、産出量が減少する。』
『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market strengthened and that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate rate.』(今回)
『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed while growth in economic activity appears to have picked up.』(前回)
あと、経済活動について「has been expanding at a moderate rate」(今回)と「appears to have picked up」(前回)ってどっちがどうですねんと言いたくなりますが。
『Job gains were strong in June following weak growth in May. On balance, payrolls and other labor market indicators point to some increase in labor utilization in recent months.』(今回)
『Although the unemployment rate has declined, job gains have diminished.』(前回)
『Household spending has been growing strongly but business fixed investment has been soft.』(今回)
『Growth in household spending has strengthened. Since the beginning of the year, the housing sector has continued to improve and the drag from net exports appears to have lessened, but business fixed investment has been soft.』(前回)
でもって今回は住宅セクターの文言が何故か無くなっているのも謎なのですが、出来上がりの全体の文章量を調整するために削ったのか他に何らかの意図があるのかは良く分からん。あと、「the drag from net exports appears to have lessened」も外れていまして、こちらはまあ前回が減ったと言っているのでこちらを外したのは改善しているという意味合いだとは思うのですけどどうでしょうかね。
『Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.』(今回)
『Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation declined; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.』(前回)
インフレに関する表現は前回と同じ、というか最近毎度同じですのう。
・第2パラグラフ:ブリクジットによる短期的なリスクは消えたとな
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will strengthen.』(今回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will strengthen.』(前回)
『Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further.』(今回)
『Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further.』(前回)
物価に関しても全文一致。
『Near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished.』(今回)
『Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.』(今回)
4パラ(今後の政策スタンスについて)。
『In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.』(今回)
相変わらず長いな。
5パラ(バランスシートについて)。
『The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.』(今回)
・第6パラグラフ:カンサスシティ連銀ジョージ総裁の利上げ提案復活
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.』(今回)
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.』(前回)
前回は全員一致でしたが今回は・・・・・・・・・
『Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent.』(今回)
[外部リンク] Introductory statement to the press conference (with Q&A) Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Vitor Constancio, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 21 July 2016
この前のおっちゃんの会見ですが、今回は見事なまでに慎重な受け答えをしているのがオモロイ。
・国債買入ルールの緩和とか他の資産の買入について
例えば最初の質疑ですが。
『Question: Brexit has revived concerns that you will run out of bonds to buy for the quantitative easing programme. Did the Governing Council consider today whether to relax the rules, or was there any discussion of whether to relax the rules for government bond purchases, including potentially moving from the capital key rule? And would the Governing Council consider buying either equities or bank debt under QE?』
国債買入ルールとか資産の買入とか、買入がきつくなってませんかという質問に対して。
『Draghi: As I said before, we discussed the general economic conditions and we concluded that we didn't have yet information to take decisions, and we decided, as I said, that over the coming months when we have more information, including new staff projections, we'll be in a better position to reassess the underlying macroeconomic conditions. No attention was really given to discuss specific instruments at this point in time.』
何を仰るウサギさんという感じで盛大に無回答ですなこりゃ。
・銀行への公的資金注入とかについて
次の質疑なんですけどね。
『Question: The IMF in its recent update of the World Economic Outlook singled out Italian and Portuguese banks as one of the risks for the outlook. Is that a view that you share? Is it one of the risks that you're taking into account in your considerations?』
『And do you think that some degree of public support for banks in the eurozone is acceptable or indeed desirable?』
おうイタポルの銀行がリスクとかIMFがゆうちょるんじゃが大丈夫なんかのーとの質問に対しては、
『Draghi: As I just said in the introductory statement, monetary policy is certainly supportive of economic activity and is focused on maintaining price stability. But also other policy measures are needed in order to reap the full benefits of our monetary policy, and one of them is to address the non-performing loans and more generally non-performing exposures in the euro area.』
『So that is a very important reform, and we certainly consider it important. I wouldn't say we consider it a risk, as you said, but certainly it has to be addressed. It's a complex problem. We may actually come back on it later on.』
『On the other question, we have in place the rules. We have in place rules of state aid, we have the BRRD, and as I said several times, these rules contain all the flexibility to cope with exceptional circumstances. The power and the responsibility in activating these rules and in complying with these rules lies with the Commission.』
『Question: I believe you have the Survey of Professional Forecasters available, and I was wondering whether that was conducted after Brexit, and what that shows, whether that had an impact on the growth and inflation forecasts.』
『And you've said repeatedly that you need more data and you need more time to assess the exact impact, but it seems to be generally that most observers expect it to be a question of when and how much you might act. Do you think that people who assume that are running ahead a little bit? Is there a fair chance that you've actually done enough?』
『Draghi: On the first point, frankly, I can't remember whether the forecast was done before or after.』
まあここはご愛嬌。
『What I know is that on inflation outlook, Brexit didn't seem to have any major impact at this point in time. Since we're speaking about inflation expectations, it's worthwhile pointing out that we have an increasing divergence between the SPF expectations and the market-based expectations. The SPF expectations basically remained the same: 0.3% this year, 1.2% next year, 1.5% in 2018, and 1.8% is the medium/long-term expectation of the SPF. So pretty anchored.』
あらそうですか。
『On the other hand we have the market-based inflation expectations, which in the days immediately after Brexit fell significantly. One immediate explanation was that there are technical factors that caused such a decline, namely that the impact on nominal bond yields was bigger than the impact on the linkers, and that reinforced this effect. On the other hand, even when the market sentiment recovered, we haven't really witnessed a similar recovery of the market-based inflation expectations. So again, we can't say much about this at this stage. We need a little more time to assess what is the state of the market-based inflation expectations.』
『On your second question, I just simply reiterate what I said before: I said that over the coming months, when we have more information, including new staff projections, we will be in a better position to reassess the underlying macroeconomic conditions and likely paths and so on.』
そらそうなのだがじゃあいつまでリアセスメントするんじゃという事に関しては・・・・・・・・・・
『But there is one last sentence that I want to stress in response to your question: if warranted, to achieve its objective, the Governing Council will act by using all instruments available within its mandate. So I would stress readiness, willingness, ability to do so.』
『At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.』
『Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council confirms that the monthly asset purchases of ユーロ80 billion are intended to run until the end of March 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until it sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim.』
ということで政策は現状維持。
会見はこちらですが、例によって冒頭のステートメント読むだけで手一杯なのでQAは週末に。 [外部リンク] Introductory statement to the press conference (with Q&A)
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Vitor Constancio, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 21 July 2016
『Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We continue to expect them to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases. Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, we confirm that the monthly asset purchases of ユーロ80 billion are intended to run until the end of March 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim.』
まあ要するに現状維持ですよと。
『Today we discussed developments since our last monetary policy meeting in early June.』
ほうほうそれでそれで?
『Following the UK referendum on EU membership, our assessment is that euro area financial markets have weathered the spike in uncertainty and volatility with encouraging resilience.』
ブリクジットの影響について、ユーロ圏の金融市場に大きな不確実性とボラティリティを与えたといいつつも、 with encouraging resilienceってんですから、金融市場や金融環境の根本的な部分はレジリアントであるのでエンカレッジングですよと。つまり・・・・・・・・・・
『The announced readiness of central banks to provide liquidity, if needed, and our accommodative monetary policy measures, as well as a robust regulatory and supervisory framework, have all helped to keep market stress contained. Financing conditions remain highly supportive, which contributes to a strengthening in credit creation. They continue to support our baseline scenario of an ongoing economic recovery and an increase in inflation rates.』
『At the same time, given prevailing uncertainties, the Governing Council will continue to monitor economic and financial market developments very closely and to safeguard the pass-through of its accommodative monetary policy to the real economy.』
『Over the coming months, when we have more information, including new staff projections, we will be in a better position to reassess the underlying macroeconomic conditions, the most likely paths of inflation and growth, and the distribution of risks around those paths.』
『If warranted to achieve its objective, the Governing Council will act by using all the instruments available within its mandate.』
『Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis.』
へいへい。
『Euro area real GDP increased by 0.6%, quarter on quarter, in the first quarter of 2016, after 0.4% in the last quarter of 2015. Growth continues to be supported by domestic demand, while export growth has remained modest. Incoming data point to ongoing growth in the second quarter of 2016, though at a lower rate than in the first quarter. Looking ahead, we continue to expect the economic recovery to proceed at a moderate pace.』
『Domestic demand remains supported by the pass-through of our monetary policy measures to the real economy. Favourable financing conditions and improvements in corporate profitability continue to promote a recovery in investment. Sustained employment gains, which are also benefiting from past structural reforms, and still relatively low oil prices provide additional support for households’ real disposable income and thus for private consumption.』
基本的に内需主導で確り目の経済という話になっていますな。しかしまあECB毎度言っているのですけれども、「till relatively low oil prices provide additional support for households’ real disposable income and thus for private consumption」ってのがあって、それだったら物価が上がったら腰砕けるやんといつも思うのですけどねえ。
『In addition, the fiscal stance in the euro area is expected to be mildly expansionary in 2016 and to turn broadly neutral in 2017 and 2018.』
財政サポートキタコレ!
『At the same time, headwinds to the economic recovery in the euro area include the outcome of the UK referendum and other geopolitical uncertainties, subdued growth prospects in emerging markets, the necessary balance sheet adjustments in a number of sectors and a sluggish pace of implementation of structural reforms. Against this background, the risks to the euro area growth outlook remain tilted to the downside.』
『According to Eurostat, euro area annual HICP inflation in June 2016 was 0.1%, up from -0.1% in May, mainly reflecting higher energy and services price inflation. Looking ahead, on the basis of current futures prices for oil, inflation rates are likely to remain very low in the next few months before starting to pick up later in 2016, in large part owing to base effects in the annual rate of change of energy prices.』
『Supported by our monetary policy measures and the expected economic recovery, inflation rates should increase further in 2017 and 2018.』
『1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options』の『Monetary policy considerations and policy options』を鑑賞すると中々味わいが。
『Summing up, Mr Praet recalled that the June 2016 Eurosystem staff projections were broadly in line with the March ECB staff projections. They confirmed the moderate, but steady, recovery that had been embedded therein and that the additional March policy package had been instrumental in avoiding a severe deterioration in financial conditions after the turbulences around the end of 2015 and in supporting the economic recovery.』
『At the same time, the June Eurosystem staff projections confirmed the persistence of weak underlying price pressures. The outlook for HICP inflation had been revised up slightly for 2016, on the back of higher oil prices, but was unchanged for 2017 and 2018. Staff also saw HICP excluding food and energy somewhat lower over the projection horizon. The protracted period of very low inflation thus remained a matter of continued concern.』
一方で物価に関しては「The protracted period of very low inflation thus remained a matter of continued concern.」とありまして、この前の部分で詳しい説明コーナーがあるのをめんどいので割愛しておりますが、とにかく「アクチュアルな物価が全然アガランチ会長となっているのが困ったもんだ」という点に問題意識が集約されている感isあるという所なのですよ。
『Looking ahead, some upside potential, beyond what was already embedded in the staff projections, could be expected from the implementation of the new series of TLTROs and the corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP). In particular, TLTRO II could further ease the borrowing costs of the private sector and provide an additional impulse to credit creation. Overall, it would tilt the balance of risks surrounding the staff baseline projections to a more balanced configuration than was the case for the March exercise.』
『Cross-checking the outcome of the economic analysis with the signals coming from the monetary analysis confirmed the need to preserve an appropriate degree of monetary accommodation in order to secure a return of inflation rates towards levels below, but close to, 2% without undue delay.』
マネタリーアナリシスって伝統的にやっているけど意味あるんですかねえ・・・・・・・・・
『Against this background, it was key to continue focusing on the full implementation of the measures decided.』
『As regards communication, it was important for the Governing Council to reiterate its forward guidance on the future path of its policy rates and on its monthly asset purchases, with the same formulations that had been used earlier in March and April 2016.』
とまあこの辺の「政策を継続しますよ政策の実施をフルに行いますよ」は良いとして、
『It also needed to be stressed that additional stimulus, beyond the impetus already taken into account, was expected from the monetary policy measures still to be implemented, which would contribute to rebalancing further the risks to the outlook for growth and inflation.』
『Likewise, it needed to be reiterated that it was crucial to ensure that the very low inflation environment did not become entrenched in second-round effects on wage and price setting.』
『Accordingly, the Governing Council would state again that it would closely monitor the evolution of the outlook for price stability and, if warranted to achieve its objective, act by using all the instruments available within its mandate.』
『Finally, it was appropriate that the Governing Council should continue to stress that, in order to reap the full benefit from its monetary policy measures, other policy areas had to contribute much more decisively, both at the national and at the European levels.』
『・Atlanta Fed President and CEO Dennis Lockhart, in a July 14, 2016, speech to the Eighth Annual Rocky Mountain Economic Summit in Victor, Idaho, gives his economic outlook.』
ということですが、
『・Lockhart says Brexit has clouded the economic waters and sees little choice but to exercise patience and let the picture clarify.』
「Brexit has clouded the economic waters」とは何ですねんというネタは講演のマクラを見ると分かるので後程という感じですが、「exercise patience and let the picture clarify」ってなお話でして、要するにロックハート総裁的には先行きの不透明感を強めましたという認識。
『・Because of the disappointing May employment report and Brexit, Lockhart was comfortable with the FOMC’s June decision to keep policy on hold.』
最初「利上げも支持」かと思わせるのですが、結論は「Lockhart was comfortable with the FOMC’s June decision to keep policy on hold.」となっていて、これはまあ読む方としては「えーっとそうしますともしかして雇用統計がうんこだったので緩和的なイメージもあったのかよ」とか思ってしまう訳ですが、まあそこまでではなくても、利上げをホイホイ実施するという感じのスタンスではないような纏め方になっておりますね。
『・Lockhart expects continuing growth at around 2 percent per annum, and inflation to move closer to the FOMC’s target rate of around 2 percent.』
という見通しですけれども・・・・・・・・・・・・・・
『・Lockhart says the consequences of Brexit may play out over a number of years, and associated uncertainty could become an economic headwind.』
新たな向かい風が増えましたってんですから利上げはより慎重にとなる訳で。
『・Lockhart reemphasized that policy is data-dependent. He is comfortable with a cautious and patient approach to policy in the near term.』
そういうことですな。でもって小見出しですけれども、『Outlook before Brexit』『Current economic performance』『Brexit』『Thinking about uncertainty』となりまして、まあこの辺りを確認しておくのも吉なのですが、甚だ遺憾な事に時間が無いという毎度の言い訳が炸裂致しまして(すいませんすいませんすいません)、本日はこの小見出しの外側にあります冒頭のお茶目なマクラを鑑賞してみませう(^^)。
『I have visited this part of Idaho several times, but for purposes other than talking about the economy and monetary policy.』
経済ヒアリング以外の目的とは????
『The Snake River runs through this area. I’ve floated all three gorgeous sections of the south fork of the Snake testing my fly-fishing skills against the wily trout that inhabit the river.』
フライフィッシングとな!!!
『I am no expert fly-fisher, but I've had good instructors and read a bunch of books on the sport.』
これはお茶目。
『Before ever throwing a line, a fly-fisher has to read the water. Reading the water involves identifying areas where the fish are most likely to be holding on that particular day. Considerations include the speed and depth of the flowing water, soft spots in the flow made by rocks, trees, and eddies, and places where aquatic insects are emerging.』
ということで、講演のお題にあった「Letting the Waters Clear」というのと最初のまとめにあった「Brexit has clouded the economic waters」という伏線が回収されました。
『Fly-fishers are always looking for signs of rising fish. This tells you they are feeding on the surface of the water. A hatch of emerging insects is a feast for fish and usually makes for good fishing if you can "match the hatch" with your artificial fly.』
『Sometimes it happens that you have a fishing outing planned for a day just after a storm has passed through. Bad luck. Storms can make the water cloudy and force the fish down to lower depths. In such circumstances there’s little activity on the surface, and the fishing may not be so good. A dry fly-fisher just has to exercise a little patience until the waters clear. I've found, in any event, that a bad day on the river is better than a good day at the office.』
『This may be a tortured metaphor, I admit, for current conditions Fed policymakers are facing.』
もはや言われんでもわかっとるわというこのマクラ。
『Brexit amounts to a storm that has clouded the economic waters. For the very near term, I see little choice but to exercise some patience and let the picture clarify.』
『I will expand on this theme in my remarks today. Here's what I plan to cover today: The bison in the room is obviously Brexit and what it means for the U.S. economy. Whether fully deserved or not, Brexit is being treated as a seminal event evoking a before-and-after comparison of perspectives on the economic outlook. So first, I’ll walk you through my outlook before the momentous referendum of June 23. I’ll follow that with my after perspective, that is, my outlook in light of the uncertainty brought on by Brexit. I’ll also add some comments on how I think about uncertainty as a factor influencing economic performance.』
『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』の途中から。
『Participants summarized survey readings and anecdotal reports on business conditions in their Districts.』
ほうほう。
『Those indicators were mixed regarding the pace of economic activity within the manufacturing sector. Some of the weakness in manufacturing activity was linked to the effects of earlier declines in oil prices on firms in the energy sector and to previous increases in the exchange value of the dollar, which had adversely affected exporters. But manufacturing activity was judged to have stabilized in a couple of Districts, and contacts there were optimistic about further improvement in the months ahead. It was noted that the recent increase in crude oil prices had improved the outlook for the energy sector. However, a couple of participants observed that financial strains caused by previous declines in energy prices had continued for firms or financial institutions in their Districts, and such difficulties were seen as likely to persist absent further increases in energy prices.』
『Regarding the service sector, a few participants commented that activity and hiring continued to expand in their Districts. The near-term outlook for farm income remained weak despite recent increases in the futures prices of some agricultural commodities.』
『Available indicators suggested that the softness in business fixed investment since late last year persisted early in the second quarter. While weakness in the drilling and mining sector was attributable to the earlier declines in oil prices, participants identified a variety of potential causes of the broader weakness in investment spending, including a slowdown in corporate profits, concern about prospects for economic growth, heightened uncertainty regarding the future course of domestic regulatory and fiscal policies, and a persistent reluctance on the part of firms to undertake new projects in the wake of the financial crisis.』
『Some participants mentioned that the sluggishness in business investment could portend a broader economic slowdown. A couple of participants also noted that elevated inventory levels could be a drag on economic growth in the near term. However, participants also cited factors that could lead to a pickup in business spending, including the recent turnaround in energy prices and the greater optimism on the part of firms indicated by surveys of businesses and anecdotal reports in some Districts.』
『The employment report for May showed considerably weaker growth in payrolls than had been expected, and gains in previous months were revised down. Although the unemployment rate fell in May, a drop in labor force participation accounted for the decline.』
ということで5月雇用統計についてのぎろんだがこれが喧々諤々状態。
『Participants discussed a range of interpretations of these data. Many participants observed that, because of transitory factors, such as statistical noise and the effects of a strike in the telecommunications industry, the reported rate of payroll job growth likely understated its underlying pace; however, many participants thought that the underlying pace had slowed some from that of previous months.』
一時的要因による動きではあっても、それは本当にそれだけなのかというお話が始まる。
『Some noted that other indicators did not corroborate a material weakening of labor market conditions. These indicators included a number of regional surveys of labor market conditions, relatively low levels of initial claims for unemployment insurance, surveys of business hiring plans, and positive views of labor market conditions in recent consumer surveys.』
『In addition, a few participants commented that the movements in labor force participation in recent months were, on balance, consistent with its secular downtrend.』
他の指標が顕著に悪くなっている訳でもないから一時的という見解。
『In contrast, some noted that the lower rate of payroll gains could instead be indicative of a broader slowdown in growth of economic activity that was also evidenced by other downbeat labor market indicators, such as a decline in the diffusion indexes of industry payrolls, an increase in the number of workers reporting that they were working part time for economic reasons, or the recent sharp drop in labor force participation.』
『Finally, a few participants suggested that the weak employment growth may instead reflect supply constraints associated with a general tightening of labor market conditions. These participants saw the rising trend in wages, business reports of reduced worker availability, and high rate of job openings as supporting this interpretation. Others thought it unlikely that such constraints would have become evident so abruptly.』
『Almost all participants judged that the surprisingly weak May employment report increased their uncertainty about the outlook for the labor market.』
そらそうよ。
『Even so, many remarked that they were reluctant to change their outlook materially based on one economic data release. Participants generally expected to see a resumption of monthly gains in payroll employment that would be sufficient to promote continued strengthening of the labor market.』
『However, some noted that with labor market conditions at or near those consistent with maximum employment, it would be reasonable to anticipate that gains in payroll employment would soon moderate from the pace seen over the past few years.』
