[外部リンク] Chair Janet L. Yellen At "Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future," a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming August 26, 2016 The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Toolkit: Past, Present, and Future
『Figure 2 in your handout illustrates this point. It shows simulated paths for interest rates, the unemployment rate, and inflation under three different monetary policy responses--the aggressive rule in the absence of the zero lower bound constraint, the constrained aggressive rule, and the constrained aggressive rule combined with $2 trillion in asset purchases and guidance that the federal funds rate will depart from the rule by staying lower for longer.21』
『As the red dashed line shows, the federal funds rate would fall far below zero if policy were unconstrained, thereby causing long-term interest rates to fall sharply.i But despite the lower bound, asset purchases and forward guidance can push long-term interest rates even lower on average than in the unconstrained case (especially when adjusted for inflation) by reducing term premiums and increasing the downward pressure on the expected average value of future short-term interest rates. Thus, the use of such tools could result in even better outcomes for unemployment and inflation on average.』
『Of course, this analysis could be too optimistic.』
そらそうだ。
『For one, the FRB/US simulations may overstate the effectiveness of forward guidance and asset purchases, particularly in an environment where long-term interest rates are also likely to be unusually low.22 In addition, policymakers could have less ability to cut short-term interest rates in the future than the simulations assume. By some calculations, the real neutral rate is currently close to zero, and it could remain at this low level if we were to continue to see slow productivity growth and high global saving.23 If so, then the average level of the nominal federal funds rate down the road might turn out to be only 2 percent, implying that asset purchases and forward guidance might have to be pushed to extremes to compensate.24』
『Moreover, relying too heavily on these nontraditional tools could have unintended consequences. For example, if future policymakers responded to a severe recession by announcing their intention to keep the federal funds rate near zero for a very long time after the economy had substantially recovered and followed through on that guidance, then they might inadvertently encourage excessive risk-taking and so undermine financial stability.』
でまあそういう悪態は兎も角として、思いっきり「if future policymakers responded to a severe recession by announcing their intention to keep the federal funds rate near zero for a very long time after the economy had substantially recovered and followed through on that guidance, then they might inadvertently encourage excessive risk-taking and so undermine financial stability」とか日本にイヤミを言っているつもりはなくて、普通の話をしている&低金利政策の長期化を織り込みまくっている市場に対するイヤミを言っているだけだと思うのですが、日銀に対してもいい感じで砲撃成分があるなあと思うのでした。
・フォワードガイダンス政策の有効性を過信しているようなイメージはややある
『Finally, the simulation analysis certainly overstates the FOMC's current ability to respond to a recession, given that there is little scope to cut the federal funds rate at the moment. But that does not mean that the Federal Reserve would be unable to provide appreciable accommodation should the ongoing expansion falter in the near term.』
現時点で経済がコケた時にはどうなるのという話ですが。
『In addition to taking the federal funds rate back down to nearly zero, the FOMC could resume asset purchases and announce its intention to keep the federal funds rate at this level until conditions had improved markedly--although with long-term interest rates already quite low, the net stimulus that would result might be somewhat reduced.』
従来の政策を復活させればヨロシという話をしていてこれは従来の説明通り。
『Despite these caveats, I expect that forward guidance and asset purchases will remain important components of the Fed's policy toolkit.』
『In addition, it is critical that the Federal Reserve and other supervisory agencies continue to do all they can to ensure a strong and resilient financial system.』
ほう。
『That said, these tools are not a panacea, and future policymakers could find that they are not adequate to deal with deep and prolonged economic downturns. For these reasons, policymakers and society more broadly may want to explore additional options for helping to foster a strong economy.』
金融政策だけではなくてそもそも経済の構造をレジリアントにしないといけませんよねと。
・他の政策ツールを導入する場合は・・・・・・・・・・・
『On the monetary policy side, future policymakers might choose to consider some additional tools that have been employed by other central banks, though adding them to our toolkit would require a very careful weighing of costs and benefits and, in some cases, could require legislation.』
『For example, future policymakers may wish to explore the possibility of purchasing a broader range of assets. Beyond that, some observers have suggested raising the FOMC's 2 percent inflation objective or implementing policy through alternative monetary policy frameworks, such as price-level or nominal GDP targeting.』
『I should stress, however, that the FOMC is not actively considering these additional tools and policy frameworks, although they are important subjects for research.』
『Beyond monetary policy, fiscal policy has traditionally played an important role in dealing with severe economic downturns.』
そらそうよ。
『A wide range of possible fiscal policy tools and approaches could enhance the cyclical stability of the economy.25 For example, steps could be taken to increase the effectiveness of the automatic stabilizers, and some economists have proposed that greater fiscal support could be usefully provided to state and local governments during recessions.』
『As always, it would be important to ensure that any fiscal policy changes did not compromise long-run fiscal sustainability.』
『Finally, and most ambitiously, as a society we should explore ways to raise productivity growth. Stronger productivity growth would tend to raise the average level of interest rates and therefore would provide the Federal Reserve with greater scope to ease monetary policy in the event of a recession. But more importantly, stronger productivity growth would enhance Americans' living standards. Though outside the narrow field of monetary policy, many possibilities in this arena are worth considering, including improving our educational system and investing more in worker training; promoting capital investment and research spending, both private and public; and looking for ways to reduce regulatory burdens while protecting important economic, financial, and social goals.』
『Although fiscal policies and structural reforms can play an important role in strengthening the U.S. economy, my primary message today is that I expect monetary policy will continue to play a vital part in promoting a stable and healthy economy.』
でも金融政策が重要とかお洒落というかそらまあ場所がジャクソンホールですからね。
『New policy tools, which helped the Federal Reserve respond to the financial crisis and Great Recession, are likely to remain useful in dealing with future downturns. Additional tools may be needed and will be the subject of research and debate. But even if average interest rates remain lower than in the past, I believe that monetary policy will, under most conditions, be able to respond effectively.』
[外部リンク] Chair Janet L. Yellen At "Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future," a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming August 26, 2016 The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Toolkit: Past, Present, and Future
・いきなり最初に「今の米国はマンデートほぼ達成状態」攻撃
冒頭でとりあえずパンチを入れて置くという事ですかそうですか。
『The Global Financial Crisis and Great Recession posed daunting new challenges for central banks around the world and spurred innovations in the design, implementation, and communication of monetary policy.』
というのが今回のお題。
『With the U.S. economy now nearing the Federal Reserve's statutory goals of maximum employment and price stability, this conference provides a timely opportunity to consider how the lessons we learned are likely to influence the conduct of monetary policy in the future.』
どさくさに紛れて「With the U.S. economy now nearing the Federal Reserve's statutory goals of maximum employment and price stability,」とかしらっと出ていますな。でもって目先の政策の話については後の方で。
・以下お題の説明ですが名指しされてないけど黒田総裁涙目系の内容になっていると思う
『The theme of the conference, "Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future," encompasses many aspects of monetary policy, from the nitty-gritty details of implementing policy in financial markets to broader questions about how policy affects the economy. Within the operational realm, key choices include the selection of policy instruments, the specific markets in which the central bank participates, and the size and structure of the central bank's balance sheet.』
『These topics are of great importance to the Federal Reserve. As noted in the minutes of last month's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, we are studying many issues related to policy implementation, research which ultimately will inform the FOMC's views on how to most effectively conduct monetary policy in the years ahead.』
『I expect that the work discussed at this conference will make valuable contributions to the understanding of many of these important issues.』
この部分先日ネタにしました。
『My focus today will be the policy tools that are needed to ensure that we have a resilient monetary policy framework. In particular, I will focus on whether our existing tools are adequate to respond to future economic downturns.』
『As I will argue, one lesson from the crisis is that our pre-crisis toolkit was inadequate to address the range of economic circumstances that we faced. Looking ahead, we will likely need to retain many of the monetary policy tools that were developed to promote recovery from the crisis. In addition, policymakers inside and outside the Fed may wish at some point to consider additional options to secure a strong and resilient economy. But before I turn to these longer-run issues, I would like to offer a few remarks on the near-term outlook for the U.S. economy and the potential implications for monetary policy.』
つーことで小見出し『Current Economic Situation and Outlook』に入ります。
『U.S. economic activity continues to expand, led by solid growth in household spending. But business investment remains soft and subdued foreign demand and the appreciation of the dollar since mid-2014 continue to restrain exports. While economic growth has not been rapid, it has been sufficient to generate further improvement in the labor market. Smoothing through the monthly ups and downs, job gains averaged 190,000 per month over the past three months.』
『Although the unemployment rate has remained fairly steady this year, near 5 percent, broader measures of labor utilization have improved. Inflation has continued to run below the FOMC's objective of 2 percent, reflecting in part the transitory effects of earlier declines in energy and import prices.』
だいたい声明文にあるような説明になっていますので、まあこの辺はヨロシ。
『Looking ahead, the FOMC expects moderate growth in real gross domestic product (GDP), additional strengthening in the labor market, and inflation rising to 2 percent over the next few years. Based on this economic outlook, the FOMC continues to anticipate that gradual increases in the federal funds rate will be appropriate over time to achieve and sustain employment and inflation near our statutory objectives.』
先行きに関してもこちら声明文通りの話ではありますが堅調な見通し。
『Indeed, in light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months.』
『Of course, our decisions always depend on the degree to which incoming data continues to confirm the Committee's outlook.』
とさきほどの次に来るのですが、その次のパラグラフがですな。
『And, as ever, the economic outlook is uncertain, and so monetary policy is not on a preset course.』
政策はプリセットコースではない、というのは声明文などでも出ている事ではありますが、
『Our ability to predict how the federal funds rate will evolve over time is quite limited because monetary policy will need to respond to whatever disturbances may buffet the economy. In addition, the level of short-term interest rates consistent with the dual mandate varies over time in response to shifts in underlying economic conditions that are often evident only in hindsight.』
『For these reasons, the range of reasonably likely outcomes for the federal funds rate is quite wide--a point illustrated by figure 1 in your handout.』
その図表1ってのが(HTMLだとリンクがあるよ) [外部リンク] なんですけど、みればお分かりのようにSEPの金利見通しのメディアンの他に両端の変態仮面の皆さんの見通しまでをレンジに含めてファンチャートにしているから、もはや予想になっていないようなレンジが示されていまして、それをもって「the range of reasonably likely outcomes for the federal funds rate is quite wide」とか言われましてもお前は何を言ってるんだという感じ。
『The line in the center is the median path for the federal funds rate based on the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections in June.1 The shaded region, which is based on the historical accuracy of private and government forecasters, shows a 70 percent probability that the federal funds rate will be between 0 and 3-1/4 percent at the end of next year and between 0 and 4-1/2 percent at the end of 2018.2』
『The reason for the wide range is that the economy is frequently buffeted by shocks and thus rarely evolves as predicted. When shocks occur and the economic outlook changes, monetary policy needs to adjust. What we do know, however, is that we want a policy toolkit that will allow us to respond to a wide range of possible conditions.』
実際はここから政策ツールキットの進歩と、その効用についての話が金融危機前の状況から金融危機対応から先の色々な金融政策(金利政策ではない金融政策)についての説明がありまして、まあ本当はここを整理の為に確認しておくのが吉ではあると思うのですが、時間と量の関係上8ページほどワープしまして『Where Do We Go from Here?』という小見出し(PDFだと本文10ページ目)まで飛びます。
『What does the future hold for the Fed's toolkit?』
つーことで今後の金融政策で使うお道具のことね。
『For starters, our ability to use interest on reserves is likely to play a key role for years to come. In part, this reflects the outlook for our balance sheet over the next few years. As the FOMC has noted in its recent statements, at some point after the process of raising the federal funds rate is well under way, we will cease or phase out reinvesting repayments of principal from our securities holdings. Once we stop reinvestment, it should take several years for our asset holdings--and the bank reserves used to finance them--to passively decline to a more normal level.』
『But even after the volume of reserves falls substantially, IOER will still be important as a contingency tool, because we may need to purchase assets during future recessions to supplement conventional interest rate reductions.14』
『Forecasts now show the federal funds rate settling at about 3 percent in the longer run.15 In contrast, the federal funds rate averaged more than 7 percent between 1965 and 2000. Thus, we expect to have less scope for interest rate cuts than we have had historically.』
『In part, current expectations for a low future federal funds rate reflect the FOMC's success in stabilizing inflation at around 2 percent--a rate much lower than rates that prevailed during the 1970s and 1980s. Another key factor is the marked decline over the past decade, both here and abroad, in the long-run neutral real rate of interest--that is, the inflation-adjusted short-term interest rate consistent with keeping output at its potential on average over time.16』
ロングランの政策金利水準が低下した理由としては、そもそもインフレ高進しないような安定化が進んだから水準が下がったというのがあり、それに加えて「long-run neutral real rate of interes」が下がっていますという自然利子率低下ネタキタコレである。
『Several developments could have contributed to this apparent decline, including slower growth in the working-age populations of many countries, smaller productivity gains in the advanced economies, a decreased propensity to spend in the wake of the financial crises around the world since the late 1990s, and perhaps a paucity of attractive capital projects worldwide.17』
自然利子率の低下にはいろいろな構造変化が要因としてありますよ、と言ってますな。
『Although these factors may help explain why bond yields have fallen to such low levels here and abroad, our understanding of the forces driving long-run trends in interest rates is nevertheless limited, and thus all predictions in this area are highly uncertain.18』
『Based on the FOMC's behavior in past recessions, one might think that such a low interest rate could substantially impair policy effectiveness. As shown in the first column of the table in the handout, during the past nine recessions, the FOMC cut the federal funds rate by amounts ranging from about 3 percentage points to more than 10 percentage points.』
過去の利下げ局面での利下げ幅のテーブルはこちら [外部リンク] 『On average, the FOMC reduced rates by about 5-1/2 percentage points, which seems to suggest that the FOMC would face a shortfall of about 2-1/2 percentage points for dealing with an average-sized recession.』
過去はもっと下げて対応したのだから3%しか引き下げ余地が無いとダメじゃんという指摘もありますと。
『But this simple comparison exaggerates the limitations on policy created by the zero lower bound. As shown in the second column, the federal funds rate at the start of the past seven recessions was appreciably above the level consistent with the economy operating at potential in the longer run. In most cases, this tighter-than-normal stance of policy before the recession appears to have reflected some combination of initially higher-than-normal labor utilization and elevated inflation pressures. As a result, a large portion of the rate cuts that subsequently occurred during these recessions represented the undoing of the earlier tight stance of monetary policy.』
『Of course, this situation could occur again in the future. But if it did, the federal funds rate at the onset of the recession would be well above its normal level, and the FOMC would be able to cut short-term interest rates by substantially more than 3 percentage points.』
『A recent paper takes a different approach to assessing the FOMC's ability to respond to future recessions by using simulations of the FRB/US model.19 This analysis begins by asking how the economy would respond to a set of highly adverse shocks if policymakers followed a fairly aggressive policy rule, hypothetically assuming that they can cut the federal funds rate without limit.20』
『It then imposes the zero lower bound and asks whether some combination of forward guidance and asset purchases would be sufficient to generate economic conditions at least as good as those that occur under the hypothetical unconstrained policy.』
『In general, the study concludes that, even if the average level of the federal funds rate in the future is only 3 percent, these new tools should be sufficient unless the recession were to be unusually severe and persistent.』
英文本チャンはこちら [外部リンク] Re-anchoring Inflation Expectations via "Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with a Negative Interest Rate" Remarks at the Economic Policy Symposium Held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
『原油の先物市場をみても、翌年以降、さらに下落が見込まれていたという訳ではありませんでした。したがって、米国における Survey of Professional Forecasters の6年先から 10 年先のインフレ予測値が極めて安定的に推移していることからもわかるように、米国では長期的なインフレ予想には変化はみられませんでした。対照的に日本では、不可解なことに、長期的なインフレ予想に弱めの動きが観察されています。長期的なインフレ予想を測るためのデータの違いなど、技術的に異なる点はありますが、そうした点を考慮しても、このところの日本の長期的なインフレ予想に弱めの動きがみられることについて、その一部が 2014 年以降の原油価格の下落に起因するとの見方を否定することは難しいように思われます。』
[外部リンク] Fed Officials Push Hike Case Before Yellen in Jackson Hole August 25, 2016 - 8:30 PM KST Updated on August 26, 2016 ? 1:59 AM KST
(しばらくするとインタビューが大音声で始まるのでご注意ください)
でまあそこの最初に
Kansas City Fed’s George says ‘it’s time to move’ again Dallas Fed’s Kaplan says case for increase is strenghtening
とありまして、カプランさんの記事もあるのですがそれはさておき。
『“Where it will look at the September meeting, we will have to wait and see if anything changes,” George said. “I don’t think that we are going to need to have high interest rates. I don’t think we need to cool off the economy by any means,” she said. “But I do think that it would be appropriate to begin the process of continuing that normalization.”』(上記URLさきより)
[外部リンク] 『Ms. George dissented because she believed that a 25 basis point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate was appropriate at this meeting. Information available since the June FOMC meeting showed solid employment growth, economic growth near its trend, and inflation outcomes aligning with the Committee's objective. Domestic financial conditions had eased since the U.K. referendum. She believed that monetary policy should respond to these developments by gradually removing accommodation, consistent with the prescriptions of several frameworks for assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy. She believed that by waiting longer to adjust the policy stance and deviating from the appropriate path to policy normalization, the Committee risked eroding the credibility of its policy communications.』
理由が「Committee risked eroding the credibility of its policy communications」であって、低金利によって金融不均衡がとかそういう話をしている訳ではないですし、耳で聞き流したベースなので正直聞き間違っていたらゴメンやでなのですが、ジョージ総裁は中立金利的な概念に関してはそら中立金利は昔ほど高くは無いでしょうというような話(とは言え3%台後半だったような気がするが別の講演などを確認しておく)でして、あくまでも先行き見通しに伴う利上げ主張なので、構造的に正常化しろと言っていたかつてのスタイン理事みたいなタイプとは違います。
[外部リンク] Speeches by President Robert S. Kaplan Key Secular Trends and Implications for Monetary Policy Remarks before the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum Beijing August 2, 2016
『I am closely monitoring how slowing growth, high levels of overcapacity and high levels of debt to GDP in major economies outside the U.S. might be impacting economic conditions in the U.S.』
『I am also closely tracking how these issues might be affecting the slope of the U.S. Treasury yield curve as well as measures of tightness in financial conditions.』
ほほー。
『In light of these challenges, I have been suggesting that removal of accommodation should be done in a gradual and patient manner, based on a realistic assessment of progress toward achieving the Federal Reserve’s dual-mandate objectives regarding full employment and price stability. I am also very cognizant that, from a risk-management point of view, our monetary policies have an asymmetrical impact at or near the zero lower bound.』
『Current Challenges of Monetary Policy』というのが次にあってだな。
『As you know, the target range for the federal funds rate stands at 25 to 50 basis points. The Federal Reserve raised the range by 25 basis points in December 2015 after seven years at the zero lower bound.』
ほうほうそれで?
『Prolonged low rates, several rounds of quantitative easing and other extraordinary Fed policy actions came in response to the severe financial crisis and economic recession of 2008 and 2009.』
『It is worth noting that the last time short-term interest rates in the United States were this low was during the middle and late 1930s as the U.S. economy struggled to emerge from the Great Depression. In addition, government bond yields in Germany and Japan are actually negative, even at maturities over five years.[14] Real government bond yields-returns after inflation-are at or below zero across a wide swath of countries, including the United States. This situation has been accentuated in the aftermath of Brexit.』
『As central bankers, we aim for monetary policy to be accommodative when the economy is operating below full employment and trend inflation is below target. We typically begin to remove accommodation as we move closer to achieving those dual goals. When our full-employment and price-stability goals are in conflict, the FOMC makes an assessment of the “balance of risks” to the two objectives.』
ほぼここはマクラみたいなもん。
『While there are disagreements about how much slack remains in the labor market and about how best to gauge trend inflation, policy debates focus more fundamentally on how to gauge the appropriate level of tightness or accommodation in monetary policy. This, in turn, depends on judgments about the “neutral rate”-the rate that signifies the dividing line between an accommodative and a restrictive monetary policy.』
『This debate is complicated by the fact that the neutral rate is “unobserved”-that is, we have to infer this rate based on observations of financial and economic data.』
だからインチキに使えるんですけどね。
『Economists and other forecasters have lowered their estimates of the longer-run neutral rate over the past several years. Yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) have also signaled a decline in the longer-run neutral real rate.[15]』
『A major driver of the decline in the neutral rate is a decrease in estimates of future growth. Longer-run estimates of future GDP growth have been declining across most advanced economies. This growth slowdown has been mostly due to demographics, but weaker productivity growth also contributes significantly to this decline.』
『In an increasingly interconnected world, the search for safety and return occurs globally-meaning that low rates in one country can quickly impact interest rates in other countries. Robert Hall of Stanford University and the Hoover Institution argues that the representation of risk-averse foreign investors in U.S. financial markets has increased and that this trend has contributed to downward pressure on the neutral real rate.[16]』
しかしそういう需給で決まる話が中立金利に影響するもんなのかねえ。
『My colleague John Williams, president of the San Francisco Fed, along with Thomas Laubach, on the staff of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, has estimated that, as of the end of the first quarter of 2016, the longer-run real neutral rate was approximately 0.2 percent.』
SF連銀もそんなの出していましたな。
『Evan Koenig and Alan Armen at the Dallas Fed estimate of the shorter-run real neutral rate was negative 1 percent as of the end of the second quarter of 2016. By this measure, the Fed was only modestly accommodative last quarter.』
ということで低い中立金利の数値がホイホイと。
『While there are different approaches to measuring the neutral rate, it is clear that there has been a significant decline in estimates of the neutral rate over the past several years.』
でまあ結論は中立金利水準がここ数年で大きく低下しましたよと。
『I am strongly persuaded by arguments that aging demographics in advanced economies, slower productivity growth and the continued emergence of the U.S. as a source of safe assets have all contributed to the decline in the neutral rate. I also believe that high levels of debt to GDP in advanced economies and higher levels of political polarization have, at a minimum, limited the capacity of these countries to implement fiscal policy and structural reforms that could have stimulated higher rates of growth. This situation has, in turn, caused the neutral rate to be lower than it would be otherwise.』
『In light of the decline in the neutral rate, using monetary policy to help manage the economy has become more challenging.』
ほうほうそれでそれで?
『Monetary policy has a key role to play in economic policy. However, at or near the zero lower bound, it may be less effective than other tools of economic policy. Monetary policy is not designed, by itself, to address the key structural issues we face today stemming from demographic changes, lower rates of productivity growth and high levels of debt to GDP as well as dislocations created by globalization and increasing rates of economic disruption.』
金融政策は構造問題などには対処できませんし、ゼロ金利制約に引っ掛かると効果が減殺されると。
『For the past eight years, advanced economies have relied heavily on monetary policy and much less on fiscal policy or structural reforms. However, at this stage, if we are going to generate higher sustainable rates of GDP growth and address key secular issues, there needs to be policy action beyond monetary policy. This action could take a variety of forms.』
『In the U.S., given that aging of the population is expected to continue to create headwinds for future economic growth, more could be done to examine policies that would ensure an inflow of workers to strengthen and grow the U.S. workforce. Appropriate immigration policy is a key element of this effort.』
ということで金融政策では無い方面に話が飛翔して逝くの巻。
『Public investments that upgrade aging infrastructure could help to bolster sluggish demand in the near term while boosting productivity in the long run. Given the sizable private pools of capital that exist today, some meaningful portion of this investment could come from public/private partnerships, with substantial capital coming from the private sector.』
『More broadly, tax reform and regulatory policies that create incentives for growth and investment could ultimately improve growth rates. Improved growth expectations could help counter the forces holding down the neutral real interest rate, giving monetary policy makers greater scope for action without resorting to unconventional tools.』
どうみても飛翔体です本当にありがとうございました。
『Historically during economic downturns, fiscal policy has often been used to assist monetary policy. However, due to high levels of debt to GDP as well as political polarization, governments have had difficulty coming to consensus on such action.』
『These are some examples of policy actions that could be considered. There are certainly other examples, including comprehensive regulatory review at the national, state and local levels, as well efforts to implement more comprehensive trade policy. Policy makers would need to address which of these might make sense to pursue. Whichever choices these leaders prefer, my point is that some of these actions will be necessary to address the challenges we currently face.』
『ST. LOUIS - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard discussed “Normalization: A New Approach” on Wednesday during the Wealth and Asset Management Research Conference at the Olin Business School at Washington University in St. Louis. In particular, he explained how the St. Louis Fed’s approach to near-term U.S. macroeconomic and monetary policy projections recently changed, and how the St. Louis Fed came to adopt this new narrative.1』
でまあ脚注1に
『1 For more discussion of the St. Louis Fed’s new approach, see Bullard’s webpage at www.stlouisfed.org/from-the-president/key-policy-papers.』
『Bullard explained that the new approach delivers a simple forecast of U.S. macroeconomic outcomes over the next two and a half years. He said that the St. Louis Fed’s forecast is for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2 percent, an unemployment rate of 4.7 percent and a Dallas Fed trimmed-mean personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rate of 2 percent. The target federal funds rate (i.e., the policy rate) is projected to be 0.63 percent over the forecast horizon.』
『In developing a new approach, Bullard said, the St. Louis Fed wanted to replace certainty about where the economy is headed with a manageable expression of the uncertainty surrounding medium- and longer-term outcomes.』
ほうほうそれでそれで?
『He said the St. Louis Fed’s previous narrative assumed that the economy is converging to a unique, long-run steady state and that values for key macroeconomic variables are essentially tending toward an average of their past values.』
今まで想定していたストーリーというのが要するに今のFOMC的な標準ストーリーです。
『With inflation and unemployment gaps near zero, he noted, business cycle dynamics appear to be over. Therefore, the implication under the old narrative is that “the policy rate would likely rise over the forecast horizon to be consistent with its steady-state value.”』
『However, Bullard explained, “In the new narrative, the concept of a single, long-run steady state is abandoned. Instead, there is a set of possible ‘regimes’ that the economy may visit.” He added that regimes are generally viewed as persistent and that switches between regimes, while possible, are not forecastable.』
『In terms of monetary policy, which is regime-dependent, the implication is that “the policy rate will likely remain essentially flat over the forecast horizon to remain consistent with the current regime.”』
でもってプレゼン資料の方だと9枚目から12枚目(資料のページではなくて表紙を含めた枚数で何枚目としております。PDFファイルベースね)がこの部分の話になるのだが、9枚目の所に、『Nature of the new narrative』というのがあって、そこを見ますと、
『・In the new narrative, the concept of a single, long-run steady state is abandoned. Instead, there is a set of possible “regimes” that the economy may visit.
・ J.D. Hamilton, “A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle,” Econometrica, March 1989, 57(2), 357-384.
・ C.-J. Kim and C.R. Nelson, State-Space Models with Regime Switching, MIT Press, 1999.
The “regime” language comes from this and subsequent nonlinear econometrics literature on this topic.』(プレゼン資料9枚目のスライドから)
となっていて、その次のページの中では
『・Regimes are viewed as persistent, and switches between regimes are viewed as not forecastable.
・Optimal monetary policy is regime-dependent.』(プレゼン資料10枚目のスライドから)
つまりロンガーランのノーマル水準にあるのに政策金利水準は0.63%という見通しで、ナンジャソラという感じですが、そこには下の方に『Risks associated with this projected policy rate are likely to the upside.』とあってそらそうよというか何というかな訳ですがその辺のツッコミは後で。
・どうも複数均衡論もどきのようなイメージで「経済のレジームが変わった」といっているようです
次の小見出しが『The Previous Narrative and the End of Its Usefulness』とまた大きく出る。
『Bullard said that during the past several years, the St. Louis Fed’s typical medium-term forecast under the old narrative was for output to grow at an above-trend pace, for unemployment to decline, for inflation (net of commodity-price effects) to overshoot 2 percent, and for policy rate increases to be consistent with the unique steady state. Under this old narrative, the extremely low policy rate was seen as stimulating, which is what was driving inflation above target, output growth above trend and a decline in unemployment.』
old narrativeとか言ってますがまあこちらがFEDの中心的な見解。
『He noted that from the second half of 2013 to the first half of 2015, output growth and unemployment data supported the previous narrative. However, inflation did not overshoot 2 percent during that period.』
昨年前半まではこの考えがワークしましたが・・・・・・・・・
『Now, Bullard explained, output growth has arguably slowed to a rate below a 2 percent trend, unemployment may not fall much below its current values, and trimmed-mean PCE inflation is close to 2 percent but not rising rapidly.』
『“If there are no major shocks to the economy, this situation could be sustained over a forecasting horizon of two and a half years,” he said. “These facts suggest that it may be time to quit using the old narrative.”』
最後の小見出しが『The New Narrative Based on Regimes』ですが、そこの文章よりもスライドショーの箇条書きの方が分かりやすいのでそっちを先に。
『An unsatisfactory aspect of the old narrative:
・ The policymaker is completely certain that the economy is converging to a long-run steady state, which is itself an average of past outcomes.
・ How to fix this?
The new narrative: We want a manageable expression of the uncertainty surrounding medium- and longer-term outcomes.
・ One way to do this is to abandon the idea of a long-run steady state and instead think in terms of regimes that the economy may visit.
・ What are these regimes?』(プレゼン資料21枚目のスライドから)
でまあサマリーの方ではその続きもありまして、
『In describing the new narrative, Bullard discussed three important fundamental factors that determine the nature of the regimes that the economy may visit: productivity growth, which can be high or low; the real interest rate on short-term government debt, which can also be high or low; and the state of the business cycle, which can be expansion or recession. “The ‘regime’ can refer to any of these states or to the combination of all three,” he explained.』
『Bullard said that while recession is a risk, “we have no reason to forecast a recession given the current state of the U.S. economy.” Therefore, this is viewed as a “no-recession regime.” Regarding labor productivity growth, he noted that it has been low on average at least since 2011.』
『Hence, this is viewed as a “low-productivity-growth regime.” Turning to the real rate of return on short-term government debt, Bullard noted that it has been exceptionally low by recent historical standards. This is viewed as a “low-real-rate regime.”』
従って今のレジームは「生産性の向上や実質金利が低いままで推移するものの、リセッションなども起きません」ってレジームだという話なのだが、このおじさん昔複数均衡論の話をしている時に([外部リンク] zero nominal interest rates:」となってた)均衡物価はゼロ近傍という話をしていたのに、何故か今回主張する均衡点では物価は2%だわ雇用は完全雇用だわという事になっていまして、その背景が何かという説明がクリアカットではないので、単体で読んでいると話の筋はそれなりに通っているのだが、過去の複数均衡論との整合性が良く分からん。
『“We think of low real rates of return on government paper (safe assets) as reflecting an unusually high liquidity premium on government debt,” he said. While not all real returns in the economy are unusually low, he noted that the real returns on safe assets are the ones that are most closely linked to monetary policy.』
『He acknowledged that there are some risks associated with the projected policy rate, including the fact that these fundamental factors could switch into new regimes. Overall, he said that the risks are likely to the upside.』
『Bullard concluded, “If a regime switch does occur, the policy rate path would have to change appropriately-it remains data-dependent.”』
って纏めていまして、プレゼン資料だと37枚目の『Conclusion』って所ですけど。
『The projected policy rate path is the main difference in the new approach.
・ For other variables, the St. Louis Fed’s forecast under the new approach is similar to private-sector forecasts.
Old narrative:
・ Relatively steep policy rate path, dictated by convergence to the single, long-run steady state.
New narrative: ・ Flat policy rate path, conditional on the current regime. ・ If a regime switch does occur, the policy rate path would have to change appropriately-it remains data-dependent.』(プレゼン資料37枚目のスライドから)
[外部リンク] スタッフ報告の部分もほほーという感じではあるのですが、参加者の議論の所を見ますとそのスタッフ報告を受けた議論になっている(ので議論の背景を確認したければ前半のスタッフ報告の部分を熟読すべしという事になります、為念)のでまあ飛ばして、例によって例のごとく『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』から参ります。ちなみに分量的に言えばスタッフ報告の方が量多いんですけどね。
・最初は声明文で示されている全体感のお話
『In their discussion of the economic situation and the outlook, meeting participants agreed that the information received over the intermeeting period indicated that the labor market had strengthened and that economic activity had been expanding at a moderate rate. Job gains were strong in June following weak growth in May. On balance, payrolls and other labor market indicators pointed to some increase in labor utilization in recent months. Household spending had been growing strongly, but business fixed investment had been soft. Inflation had continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low; most survey-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, in recent months. Domestic and global asset prices were volatile early in the intermeeting period following the vote by the United Kingdom to leave the EU, but they subsequently recovered their earlier declines, and, on net, U.S. financial conditions eased over the intermeeting period.』
『Participants generally indicated that their economic forecasts had changed little over the intermeeting period. They continued to anticipate that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity would expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators would strengthen.』
『Inflation was expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipated and the labor market strengthened further.』
物価に関しても同様で従来の話からの変化は(全般としては)無いという事になっていますな。
『Participants viewed the near-term risks to the U.S. economic outlook as having diminished. However, some noted that the Brexit vote had created uncertainty about the medium- to longer-run outlook for foreign economies that could affect economic and financial conditions in the United States. Participants generally agreed that the Committee should continue to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.』
『Growth in consumer spending was estimated to have rebounded in the second quarter from the slow pace in the first quarter, as monthly gains in retail sales were strong through June.』
消費は2Qになって拡大しています。小売が強いですねえと。
『Sales of new motor vehicles remained at a high level, on average, in the second quarter, although sales appeared to be supported by substantial incentives for consumers and by business fleet purchases. With the second-quarter pickup in spending, real PCE appeared to have risen over the first half of the year at a rate consistent with the positive trends in fundamental determinants of household spending.』
うむ。
『Participants cited a number of factors that had likely been supporting household spending, including solid real income growth, gains in house and equity values, low gasoline prices, and favorable levels of consumer confidence.』
『Residential investment posted a strong increase in the first quarter of the year, but data on starts of new single-family homes indicated that outlays likely edged down in the second quarter. Data on permit issuance through June suggested that new-home building activity might rise only slowly in the near term. However, participants commented on a number of factors suggesting that the housing sector was likely to continue to improve, albeit gradually: Rising sales of existing homes, responses to the July SLOOS pointing to stronger demand for residential mortgage loans, and the steady increase in house prices were seen as evidence of rising demand.』
『In addition, credit conditions remained favorable: Mortgage rates had fallen further, and the SLOOS reported easier terms for loans eligible for purchase by the GSEs. Moreover, several participants noted positive reports on residential construction activity from business contacts in their Districts, with a few suggesting that shortages of lots and skilled labor, rather than low demand, might be contributing to the recent slowing.』
『Business fixed investment appeared to have declined further during the second quarter, with broad-based weakness in equipment and another steep drop in drilling and mining structures.』
『Participants noted that the recent rise in energy prices had spurred an uptick in drilling activity, suggesting that if energy prices firm over time as expected, the drag on investment from declining energy-sector activity should diminish.』
資源価格戻ってきたからよーしパパ設備投資復活させちゃうぞーってなるのでしょうかねえ。
『In addition, it was pointed out that the upward trend in investment in intellectual property products was a positive in the outlook for investment. Several participants commented on favorable reports from their business contacts on commercial construction.』
IT系とか消費関連系の投資は堅調らしい。
『Based on conversations with their contacts, participants discussed a number of factors that may have been contributing to businesses' cautious approach to investment spending, including concern about the likelihood of an extended period of slow economic growth, both in the United States and abroad; narrowing profit margins; and uncertainty about prospects for government policies.』
『In their discussion of business conditions in their Districts, many participants reported that their contacts anticipated that the U.K. referendum would have little effect on their businesses.』
ブリクジットに関しては影響は小さいのですが・・・・・・・・
『Activity in the manufacturing sector continued to be mixed: Several participants indicated that manufacturing in their Districts was still quite weak, while several others reported that their Banks' June surveys showed that manufacturing activity had picked up or stabilized.』
製造業は強弱まちまち。
『The available surveys indicated that service-sector activity continued to expand. However, economic activity continued to be depressed in areas affected by the downturn in the energy sector and falling agricultural commodity prices, although several participants noted that the recent firming in crude oil prices had led to a modest increase in drilling activity. Businesses in the energy industry were reported to be highly leveraged, and additional restructurings and bankruptcies were seen as likely. Farm loans continued to increase, and banks had seen some rise in delinquencies on such credits.』
『The labor market report for June appeared to confirm participants' earlier assessments that the small gain in payroll employment in May likely had substantially understated its underlying pace. The sharp rebound in payroll employment gains put the average monthly increase in jobs over the three months ending in June at about 150,000.』
先般の雇用統計でホッと一息ですの。
『Although this pace was noticeably slower than the average rate during 2015 and the first quarter of 2016, many participants viewed it as consistent with continued strengthening in labor market conditions and with a further gradual decline in the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate rose in June after having declined in May, but the labor force participation rate ticked up, the rate of involuntary part-time employment more than reversed its increase in May, and the broader U-6 measure of labor underutilization continued to move down.』
NFPのペースは落ちているけれども全体としては堅調な回復を続けているという認識。
『Some participants noted that recent signs of a moderate step-up in wage increases provided further evidence of improving labor market conditions.』
数名は賃金上昇についても指摘しています。まあこの人たちが利上げ早期に的な人たちでしょうな。
『Although most participants judged that labor market conditions were at or approaching those consistent with maximum employment, their views on the implications for progress on the Committee's policy objectives varied. Some of them believed that a convergence to a more moderate, sustainable pace of job gains would soon be necessary to prevent an unwanted increase in inflationary pressures.
「at or approaching those consistent with maximum employment」って言ってるのが「most」と来ましたということでここに関してはまあ強い。そのうちの数名は労働市場のタイト化によるインフレ圧力への可能性まで言及となという感じです。
『Other participants continued to judge that labor utilization remained below that consistent with the Committee's maximum-employment objective. These participants noted that progress in reducing slack in the labor market had slowed, citing relatively little change, on net, since the beginning of the year in the unemployment rate, the number of persons working part time for economic reasons, the employment-to-population ratio, labor force participation, or rates of job openings and quits.』
『Available information on inflation suggested that the change in headline PCE prices for the 12 months ending in June continued to run well below the Committee's longer-run objective and that the 12-month change in core PCE prices likely remained near its May level of 1.6 percent. On a 12-month-change basis, core PCE inflation had risen from 1.3 percent a year earlier, but it continued to be held down by the pass-through of earlier declines in energy prices and by soft prices of imports.』
これは現象のお話。
『Core PCE inflation over the first half of 2016 was expected to have been close to an annual rate of 2 percent, but it was noted that some of the increase likely reflected transitory effects that would be in part reversed during the second half of the year.』
本年後半上昇するけどそれは一時的押し下げ要因の剥落によるもの。
『Longer-run inflation expectations, as reported in the Michigan survey, were little changed in June and early July. The reading from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations for inflation three years ahead moved up further in June, returning to near its level of a year earlier. Most market-based measures of longer-run inflation compensation remained low.』
インフレ期待は市場の方が相変わらず弱くてサーベイはあまり変化なし。
・金融安定化の話では不動産貸出への懸念を表明する人が
『Participants also discussed recent developments in financial markets and issues related to financial stability.』
『In the discussion of developments related to financial stability, it was noted that while the capital and liquidity positions of U.S. banks remained strong, European banks, particularly Italian banks, were under pressure--as evidenced by the sharp declines in their equity prices--from a weaker economic outlook for that region, thin interest margins, and concerns about the quality of their loan portfolios.』
ということで欧州銀行の問題を指摘していますがその先では・・・・・・・・・
『In U.S. markets, overall financial vulnerabilities were judged to remain moderate, as nonfinancial debt had continued to increase roughly in line with nominal GDP and valuation pressures were not widespread. However, during the discussion, several participants commented on a few developments, including potential overvaluation in the market for CRE, the elevated level of equity values relative to expected earnings, and the incentives for investors to reach for yield in an environment of continued low interest rates.』
『Regarding CRE, it was noted that the recent SLOOS reported that a significant fraction of banks tightened lending standards in the first and second quarters of the year and that overvaluation did not appear to be widespread across markets. It was also pointed out that investors potentially were becoming more comfortable locking in current yields in an environment in which low interest rates were expected to persist, rather than engaging in the type of speculative behavior that could pose financial stability concerns.』
『Participants discussed the implications of recent economic and financial developments for the economic outlook and the risks attending the outlook. They indicated that their forecasts for economic growth, the labor market, and inflation had changed little over the intermeeting period.』
見通しに著変なしですがリスクの話で最初がブリクジット。
『Regarding the near-term outlook, participants generally agreed that the prompt recovery in financial markets following the Brexit vote and the pickup in job gains in June had alleviated two key uncertainties about the outlook that they had faced at the June meeting.』
『Brexit now appeared likely to have little effect on the U.S. economic outlook in the near term. Moreover, the employment report for June, along with other recent information that suggested that real GDP rose at a moderate rate in the second quarter, provided some reassurance that a sharp slowdown in employment and economic activity was not under way. Participants judged that the incoming information, on the whole, had lowered the downside risks to the near-term economic outlook. Most participants anticipated that economic growth would move up to a rate somewhat above its longer-run trend during the second half of 2016 and that the labor market would strengthen further.』
ブリクジットの短期的リスクは下がりましたよと。
『However, several noted that while the outlook for consumer spending remained positive, continued weakness in business investment and the possibility of slower improvement in the housing sector posed some downside risks to their forecasts.』
『Although the near-term risks to the outlook associated with Brexit had diminished over the intermeeting period, participants generally agreed that they should continue to closely monitor economic and financial developments abroad. As a consequence of Brexit, economic growth in the United Kingdom and, to a lesser extent, in the euro area would likely be slower than previously anticipated. Moreover, the exit process was expected to entail an extended period of negotiations that, in the view of most participants, had the potential to increase the political and economic uncertainties in that region; several also saw the possibility that complications during the exit process could result in spells of elevated volatility in global financial markets. Some participants noted that the weak capital positions and high levels of nonperforming loans at some European banks could also weigh on economic growth in the region.』
『In addition to the situation in Europe, some participants continued to see a number of other downside risks to the medium-term economic and financial outlook from abroad, including weakness in the global economy more broadly, uncertainty about the outlook for China's foreign exchange policy, and the implications of China's run-up in debt to support its economy.』
海外に関してはブリクジット以外にもあるし、特に中国経済と中国の為替政策がリスクでしょとの指摘。
『A few others noted uncertainty about the strength of domestic economic activity going forward. However, some other participants indicated that they did not view the uncertainties attending the outlook to be unusually elevated and continued to see the risks to their economic forecasts as balanced.』
『In discussing the outlook for the labor market, most participants viewed some further strengthening in labor market indicators as consistent with achieving the Committee's maximum-employment objective. With inflation still below the Committee's longer-run objective and likely to continue to respond only slowly to somewhat tighter labor markets, most also saw relatively low risk that a further gradual strengthening of the labor market would generate an unwanted increase in inflationary pressures.』
この辺の指摘はさっきと同じ。
『Nevertheless, a few participants continued to caution about the risks to the inflation outlook from overshooting the natural rate of unemployment. Some indicated that a step-down in monthly job gains seemed appropriate as labor market conditions approached those consistent with the Committee's maximum-employment objective and that a more moderate pace of hiring could still be consistent with further increases in labor utilization.』
『However, several others were concerned that if labor market slack diminished more slowly than they had previously anticipated, progress on the Committee's maximum-employment and inflation objectives could be delayed.』
『Regarding the outlook for inflation, incoming information appeared to be broadly in line with most participants' earlier expectations that inflation would gradually rise to 2 percent over the medium term.』
『Most noted that the firming in various indicators of core inflation over the past year, together with signs that the direct and indirect effects of earlier declines in energy prices and prices of non-oil imports had begun to fade, provided support for their forecasts.』
まあこのあたりは良いとして。
『Several added that recent indications of a pickup in wage increases were evidence of the effect of tightening resource utilization. However, other participants expressed greater uncertainty about the trajectory of inflation. They saw little evidence that inflation was responding much to higher levels of resource utilization and suggested that the natural rate of unemployment, and the responsiveness of inflation to labor market conditions, may be lower than most current estimates.』
『Several viewed the risks to their inflation forecasts as weighted to the downside, particularly in light of the still-low level of measures of longer-run inflation expectations and inflation compensation and the likelihood that disinflationary pressures from abroad would persist.』
[外部リンク] Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer At the "Program on the World Economy" a conference sponsored by The Aspen Institute, Aspen, Colorado August 21, 2016 Remarks on the U.S. Economy
短いので寝起きでも行けるばい。
『The Fed's dual mandate aims for maximum sustainable employment and an inflation rate of 2 percent, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Employment has increased impressively over the past six years since its low point in early 2010, and the unemployment rate has hovered near 5 percent since August of last year, close to most estimates of the full-employment rate of unemployment.』
「close to most estimates of the full-employment rate of unemployment」とな。
『The economy has done less well in reaching the 2 percent inflation rate. Although total PCE inflation was less than 1 percent over the 12 months ending in June, core PCE inflation, at 1.6 percent, is within hailing distance of 2 percent--and the core consumer price index inflation rate is currently above 2 percent.1』
物価に関しても威勢の良い数字を出していますが次のパラグラフ。
『So we are close to our targets.』
とパラグラフの一発目からキタコレ!
『Not only that, the behavior of employment has been remarkably resilient. During the past two years we have been concerned at various stages by the possible negative effects on the U.S. economy of the Greek debt crisis, by the 20 percent appreciation of the trade-weighted dollar, by the Chinese growth slowdown and accompanying exchange rate uncertainties, by the financial market turbulence during the first six weeks of this year, by the dismaying pothole in job growth this May, and by Brexit--among other shocks.』
『Yet, even amid these shocks, the labor market continued to improve: Employment has continued to increase, and the unemployment rate is currently close to most estimates of the natural rate.』
『And there have been other issues of concern to those particularly interested in monetary and macroeconomic policy, though probably of less explicit concern to the public: The decline in estimates of r*--the neutral interest rate that neither boosts nor slows the economy--which is related to the fear that we are facing a prolonged period of secular stagnation; the associated concerns that (a) the short-term interest rate will be constrained by its effective lower bound a greater percentage of time in the future than in the past, and (b) that the U.S. economy could find itself having to contend at some point with negative interest rates--something that the Fed has no plans to introduce; the fear that very low interest rates present a threat to financial stability; and concerns that low rates of real wage growth are increasing inequality in the distribution of income.』
『Primarily, I believe it is a remarkable, and perhaps underappreciated, achievement that the economy has returned to near-full employment in a relatively short time after the Great Recession, given the historical experience following a financial crisis.2』
という話の次がこれで、経済に関しては「ほぼ完全雇用」とこらまた強い認識。
『To be sure, it was a slow and difficult time for many, in part because growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) has been slow by historical standards. As can be seen in table 1, part of the slower output growth was due to smaller increases in aggregate hours worked, primarily reflecting demographic factors such as the aging of the baby-boom generation. But, as shown in table 2, there was also a major decline in the rate of productivity growth--to which I will return shortly.』
『Are we doomed to slow productivity growth for the foreseeable future? We don't know.10 On the encouraging side, the technological frontier appears to be advancing rapidly in some sectors, and there are hints that the firm start-up rate is improving.11 On the more discouraging side, investment continues to disappoint--and so the current capital stock is smaller and embodies fewer frontier technologies than might otherwise be the case--and the productivity slowdown is a global phenomenon, suggesting that it may not be easily or quickly remedied.』
『Let me conclude by mentioning briefly one aspect of the low interest rate and low productivity growth problems--the fact that the Fed has been close to being "the only game in town," as Mohamed El-Erian and others have described it.12 At least one part of the solution can be found in the observation that overall macroeconomic policy does not have to be confined solely to monetary policy.』
うむ。
『In particular, monetary policy is not well equipped to address long-term issues like the slowdown in productivity growth. Rather, the key to boosting productivity growth, and the long-run potential of the economy, is more likely to be found in effective fiscal and regulatory policies.13』
生産性向上だの潜在成長率の引き上げだのには金融政策よりも財政や規制などの政府の政策が重要と。
『While there is disagreement about what the most effective policies would be, some combination of improved public infrastructure, better education, more encouragement for private investment, and more-effective regulation all likely have a role to play in promoting faster growth of productivity and living standards--and also in reducing the probability that the economy and particularly the central bank will in the future have to contend more than is necessary with the zero lower bound.』
[外部リンク] Presentation to the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation Anchorage, Alaska By John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco? For delivery on August 18, 2016
小見出しが A broad economy Employment Inflation The outlook Everyone’s favorite topic: Rate hikes New normal Conclusion
『Now is when I come around to the subject of interest rates. In the context of a strong domestic economy with good momentum, it makes sense to get back to a pace of gradual rate increases, preferably sooner rather than later. I have a few reasons for saying that.』
ということでむしろ早期利上げなんですって。
『First, Milton Friedman famously taught us that monetary policy has long and variable lags.3 Research shows it takes at least a year or two for it to have its full effect.4 So the decisions we make today must take aim at where we’re going, not where we are. I liken it to a car: When you’re nearing the intersection, you ease off the gas so you can be ready to stop. You don’t wait until you get right in front of the red light; that would force you to slam on the brakes, and might propel you into the middle of the intersection. Likewise, if we wait until we see the whites of inflation’s eyes, we don’t just risk having to slam on the monetary policy brakes, we risk having to throw the economy into reverse to undo the damage of overshooting the mark. And that creates its own risks of a hard landing or even a recession.』
『Second, experience shows that an economy that runs too hot for too long can generate imbalances, ultimately leading to either excessive inflation or an economic correction and recession. In the 1960s and 1970s, it was runaway inflation. In the late 1990s, the expansion became increasingly fueled by euphoria over the “new economy,” the dot-com bubble, and massive overinvestment in tech-related industries. And in the first half of the 2000s, irrational exuberance over housing sent prices spiraling far beyond fundamentals and led to massive overbuilding. If we wait too long to remove monetary accommodation, we hazard allowing these imbalances to grow, at great cost to our economy.』
『Finally, an earlier start to raising rates would allow a smoother, more gradual process of normalization. This gives us space to fine-tune our responses to any surprise changes in economic conditions. If we wait too long, the need to play catch-up wouldn’t leave much room for maneuver. Not to mention, it could roil financial markets and slow the economy in unintended ways.』
早期着手によって正常化をゆっくりできるという説明。
『Monetary policy has absolutely played a crucial role in getting us back on track.5 We’ve achieved our mandate of full employment and we’re heading towards 2 percent inflation. But, it’s important to recognize what monetary policy can and can’t do-not to mention what it should and shouldn’t. The job of monetary policy is to get the economy to full strength with maximum employment and steady 2 percent inflation, using the tools available to us. As I said earlier, that’s a relatively limited kit and is restricted largely to money in the system and the rates at which it is lent. How the economy develops and performs in the long run depends on a host of other factors that are outside our purview and ability to influence.』
『What comes next is addressing long-run trends in productivity and the quality of the labor force, and those are determined by the investments we make in technology and education, by tax policies and long-term fiscal decisions.6 That’s what’s going to shape the economy over the next decade, and that conversation extends far beyond the Federal Open Market Committee meeting room.』
でもってそのスピーチはこちら。 [外部リンク] Remarks at the New York Fed’s Economic Press Briefing on the Regional Economy August 18, 2016 William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on the Regional Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
小見出しが
Job Growth in the Region Update on Puerto Rico Middle-Wage Jobs Returning
となっているので、多分最後の所を最初に読めばインスタント読みできるということで簡単に。
『Let me conclude by returning to the theme of the labor market. Job growth is essential to the vitality of an expansion, but the types of jobs being created are also important.』
労働の成長も大事だが質も大事だと。
『While the labor market has continued to add jobs at a solid pace, many remain concerned about a lack of job opportunities for the middle class. Indeed, growth of middle-wage jobs has been lackluster for the past few decades, with gains occurring disproportionately in higher-wage and lower-wage sectors. This long-term hollowing out of jobs in the middle of the wage distribution has helped fuel rising wage inequality, and has contributed to a growing sense for some that they are being left behind in the current economic expansion.』
『At a previous press briefing, we showed that many middle-wage jobs disappeared during the Great Recession with very few of these jobs returning during the early stages of the recovery. This made it especially difficult for many workers who lost their jobs to rejoin the economy.』
『Today, our economists will show that the tide has begun to turn.』
でもってこの潮目が変わりだしているのではないかと。
『For the first time in quite a while, gains in middle-wage jobs actually outnumber gains in higher- and lower-wage jobs nationwide. These middle-wage jobs include teachers, construction workers, mechanics, administrative support personnel and truck drivers, just to name a few. I believe this is an important development in the economy, because, if it were to continue, it would create more opportunities for workers and their families who have been struggling up to now.』
なるほど。
『Middle-wage jobs are also being created in our region, though such gains have been more evident in some places than others. I will now ask Jaison Abel to provide more details about job growth in our region.』
『Against the backdrop of their views of the economic outlook, participants discussed the conditions that could warrant taking another step in removing monetary policy accommodation.』
これはまたそのまんまな書き出し(^^)。
『With inflation continuing to run below the Committee's 2 percent objective, many judged that it was appropriate to wait for additional information that would allow them to evaluate the underlying momentum in economic activity and the labor market and whether inflation was continuing to rise gradually to 2 percent as expected.』
『Several suggested that the Committee would likely have ample time to react if inflation rose more quickly than they currently anticipated, and they preferred to defer another increase in the federal funds rate until they were more confident that inflation was moving closer to 2 percent on a sustained basis. In addition, although near-term downside risks to the outlook had diminished over the intermeeting period, some participants stressed that the Committee needed to consider the constraints on the conduct of monetary policy associated with proximity to the effective lower bound on short-term interest rates. These participants concluded that the Committee should wait to take another step in removing accommodation until the data on economic activity provided a greater level of confidence that economic growth was strong enough to withstand a possible downward shock to demand.』
『However, some other participants viewed recent economic developments as indicating that labor market conditions were at or close to those consistent with maximum employment and expected that the recent progress in reaching the Committee's inflation objective would continue, even with further steps to gradually remove monetary policy accommodation. Given their economic outlook, they judged that another increase in the federal funds rate was or would soon be warranted, with a couple of them advocating an increase at this meeting.』
『A few participants pointed out that various benchmarks for assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy supported taking another step in removing policy accommodation. A few also emphasized the risk to the economic expansion that would be associated with allowing labor market conditions to tighten to an extent that could lead to an unwanted buildup of inflation pressures and thus eventually require a rapid increase in the federal funds rate.』
『In addition, several expressed concern that an extended period of low interest rates risked intensifying incentives for investors to reach for yield and could lead to the misallocation of capital and mispricing of risk, with possible adverse consequences for financial stability.』
『The staff provided several briefings that reviewed progress on a long-term effort begun in July 2015 to evaluate potential long-run frameworks for monetary policy implementation.』
ほほう。
『The briefings highlighted some foundational considerations that are relevant for such an evaluation. The staff described the recent experience of several central banks of advanced foreign economies (AFEs) in implementing monetary policy, noting that they use a wide variety of frameworks to control short-term interest rates and that their approaches have evolved over time.』
ということで、フレームワークと言っても技術的な面での大枠をどう組むのかというお話です。
『For example, foreign central banks vary in their choice of the interest rate used to communicate monetary policy; in their approach to the provision of reserve balances; and in their use of policies, such as large-scale asset purchases, various funding programs, and negative interest rates, to supplement more traditional means of policy implementation.』
うむ。
『The staff also described the Federal Reserve's experience in implementing monetary policy during the recent financial crisis. Before the financial crisis, traditional implementation tools--relatively small-sized open market operations and discount window lending--were adequate for interest rate control even during periods of stress. But the evidence from the period of the crisis and its aftermath suggested that the Federal Reserve's pre-crisis framework did not enable close control over the federal funds rate when liquidity programs were expanded significantly and subsequently was unable to generate sufficiently accommodative financial conditions to support economic recovery without the use of new policy tools.』
『Finally, the staff noted that various aspects of U.S. money markets, which determine short-term interest rates and are important for transmitting monetary policy, have changed since the financial crisis. The differences include changes the Federal Reserve has made to its policy tools and balance sheet, changes in market participants' business practices, and the regulatory changes made around the globe to strengthen the financial system.』
まあ仰る通り。
『Taken together, these factors may, for example, raise the long-run demand for safe assets, including reserve balances, and they should help make U.S. money markets more stable than they were before and during the financial crisis.』
つーことで次のパラグラフ。
『In the discussion that followed the staff presentations, policymakers agreed that decisions regarding an appropriate long-run implementation framework would not be necessary for some time. Furthermore, their judgments regarding a future framework would benefit from accruing additional experience with recently developed policy tools, such as the payment of interest on reserves, and accumulating more information about some important considerations that are still evolving, including financial regulations and market participants' responses to them.』
『One key consideration discussed by policymakers was the appropriate amount of flexibility that an implementation framework might have--for example, the extent to which a framework could readily enable interest rate control under a wide range of economic and financial circumstances.』
『With neutral interest rates potentially remaining quite low, policymakers also observed that, in order to promote the Federal Reserve's policy objectives, the framework should have the capacity to supplement conventional policy accommodation with other measures when short-term nominal interest rates are near zero.』
『Policymakers emphasized that the relationship between the monetary policy implementation framework and financial stability considerations would require careful attention.』
でもってこの論点がイイハナシダナーというかどこぞのジャパンの中銀にこの観点がさっぱり無いのですけどねえというのが「the relationship between the monetary policy implementation framework and financial stability considerations would require careful attention.」というお話であり、最近各国中銀ではこの指摘がちょこちょこ出てくるなあと思う次第で、日本の総括検証でもゼヒ考えていただきたい。
『Importantly, the policy implementation framework would need to be consistent with recent changes in regulation designed to enhance the stability of the financial system. Also, because episodes of financial stress can arise with little warning, policymakers noted the advantage of being operationally ready for such situations; however, they also recognized that such operational readiness could entail some costs. Participants observed that various choices associated with policy implementation frameworks--such as the selection of counterparties or types of collateral to accept, and the overall size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet--may both be influenced by, and themselves influence, incentives and activity in financial markets. Moreover, they indicated that the implications of the implementation framework for the efficiency of the financial system needed to be taken into account.』
『Meeting participants commented on several other considerations that they saw as being relevant for evaluating possible implementation frameworks. Other major central banks have successfully employed a range of policy rates, including both administered rates and market rates, suggesting that either type of rate can be effective in communicating and implementing policy.』
『However, the factors affecting market rates, as well as the relationships between the policy interest rate and other short-term interest rates, would need to be well understood in deciding on a particular policy rate.』
どこの国の事じゃ?????
『The potential benefits of improving the functioning of certain policy tools were noted; for example, approaches to reducing the perceived stigma associated with borrowing at the discount window, particularly in periods of financial strain, would need further careful consideration.』
それはその通りなのですがでしたらドルスワップももっと使わせてくんなまし、というのは無理か。
『In addition, it was noted that the dollar is a principal reserve currency and that monetary transmission in the United States occurs through funding markets that are quite globally connected.』
『At the conclusion of the discussion, the Chair asked the staff to continue its work and noted that policymakers would review further analysis at a future meeting.』
(長いので画面デザイン上リンクを途中まででしか貼っていませんがきちんと飛ぶようにしているはずです) [外部リンク] NY Fed President Dudley: Sept. Rate Hike Possible, Economy Accelerating Published August 16, 2016 The Fed FOXBusiness
『The U.S. economy is getting stronger. That’s one reason why William Dudley, president of the New York Federal Reserve, says policymakers can raise rates in the near future.』(上記URL先より、以下同様)
『“We are edging closer towards the point in time when it will be appropriate to raise rates further,” said Dudley during an exclusive interview with Peter Barnes on the FOX Business Network. When asked whether a September rate hike was on the table Dudley said, “Yeah, I think it is possible”.』
Peter BarnesさんはいつもFOMC後の記者会見で質問している人ですな。でもってこの部分ですけれども、
『Dudley highlighted the improving trends he is seeing in the economy including a “tightening” job market. U.S. employers added 255,000 jobs in July, a major improvement following May’s data, which showed just 11,000 new jobs were created. He also noted inflation is moving closer to where the Fed wants it to be: [We] “seem to be on trajectory for 2% inflation.”』
『Dudley’s comments coincide with U.S. stocks climbing to fresh records. The S&P 500, the broadest measure of U.S. equities, has advanced 4% this year, along with record low U.S. Treasuries prices. The yield on the 10-Year, which trades inversely to bond prices, has drifted to 1.57%.』
『When asked if he was concerned about financial bubbles brewing he said, “I don’t see anything now that is particularly disturbing, I would argue the one area which looks a little bit stretched to me is the bond market.”』
『Dudley noted the massive quantitative easing efforts coming from the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England as factors driving up the price of U.S. bonds.』
こちらは講演でして、 [外部リンク] Gauging Current Economic Momentum
Dennis Lockhart President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Rotary Club of Knoxville Knoxville, Tennessee August 16, 2016
つーことでアトランタ連銀の場合は便利なサマリーがあるのでサマリーから。
『Atlanta Fed President and CEO Dennis Lockhart, in an August 16, 2016, speech to the Rotary Club of Knoxville, Tennessee, discusses the national economy's underlying momentum and his economic outlook.』
これは前置き。
『Lockhart points to real final sales, a subset of GDP, for a more consistent picture of economic momentum than GDP. Real final sales rose at an annualized rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter.』
『Lockhart is holding to an outlook of moderate growth through 2017. His baseline forecast calls for achievement of the Fed's core monetary policy objectives-full employment and price stability-over the next year and a half.』
このお方も特にベースラインのシナリオを変えていないということですな。
『Lockhart assumes continuing healthy consumer activity and a modest acceleration in business investment.』
ふむ。
『Lockhart will be watching the incoming data closely for confirmation that his outlook remains valid.』
と、自信満々という程でもなさそうですが、超手抜きで講演の頭とケツだけ引用します。
『In late July, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimate of second-quarter growth of gross domestic product (GDP). Growth in the quarter was estimated at 1.2 percent annualized. The number was below our expectations at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and below the predictions of many others. The report has been treated as a downer. I gave an interview on August 2 and got the question, "What do you make of the dismal GDP report?" It's not surprising a GDP report so much below expectations evoked strong reactions.』
先般のGDPに対する反応の話ですな。
『When the history of the post-recession economic expansion is written, it will be described as a long period of relatively slow growth. Through mid-2015, GDP growth averaged a little over 2 percent. Over the last year, GDP growth has averaged just 1.2 percent. Over the first half of 2016, GDP growth has averaged just 1.0 percent at an annual rate. At face value, it might appear that economic momentum is decelerating.』
回復のペースが遅いのはリセッション後の回復という状態が続いているので仕様ですと。
『At these low numbers, an apparent decelerating pace of growth would not seem compatible with policymakers' thinking about raising interest rates. Yet I, as one Fed policymaker, am not prepared to rule out at least one rate hike before year's end.』
『So, to sum up, I caution against overreacting to the second-quarter headline growth number.』
ちなみにそのひとつ前のパラグラフで自分で『Certainly, there are risks to this hopeful scenario. 』って言っているのでやや強気であるという認識(つーかまあこの講演では強い話をしている)の下で話をしているのですけど、まあそれはそれとしてGDPに対する市場の反応が過剰ではないかとの指摘キタコレである。
『Early indications of third-quarter GDP growth suggest a rebound. I don't believe momentum has stalled. I remain confident about prospects in the second half of 2016 and 2017. I will be watching the incoming data closely for confirmation that the outlook I've presented here today remains valid.』
ということで強気の見方。
『I'm not locked in to any policy position at this stage, but if my confidence in the economy proves to be justified, I think at least one increase of the policy rate could be appropriate later this year.』
と結論していまして、そら経済強めで見てればそうなるわなとは思いますが、こんな記事もありましたな。
[外部リンク] Business | 2016年 08月 17日 04:43 JST 米利上げ年内2回の可能性、9月排除せず=アトランタ連銀総裁
ということなので『Monetary Policy Summary, August 2016』の最初から。
『The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending 3 August 2016, the MPC voted for a package of measures designed to provide additional support to growth and to achieve a sustainable return of inflation to the target.』
ここで「to achieve a sustainable return of inflation to the target」とあるのですが、この先の方で特にポンド安の影響によって物価については2%のターゲットを上回る状況が先行きしばらく続くという見通しがありまして、では何で追加緩和しますねんというロジックが説明されています。
『This package comprises: a 25 basis point cut in Bank Rate to 0.25%; a new Term Funding Scheme to reinforce the pass-through of the cut in Bank Rate; the purchase of up to £10 billion ofv UK corporate bonds; and an expansion of the asset purchase scheme for UK government bonds of £60 billion, taking the total stock of these asset purchases to £435 billion. The last three elements will be financed by the issuance of central bank reserves.』
これは実際に投下した施策についてですな。
『Following the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union, the exchange rate has fallen and the outlook for growth in the short to medium term has weakened markedly.』
ブリクジットの影響がポンド安と中期の経済見通しの大きな下げと。
『The fall in sterling is likely to push up on CPI inflation in the near term, hastening its return to the 2% target and probably causing it to rise above the target in the latter part of the MPC’s forecast period, before the exchange rate effect dissipates thereafter.』
物価は2%に達する時期が早くなるとな。
『In the real economy, although the weaker medium-term outlook for activity largely reflects a downward revision to the economy’s supply capacity, near-term weakness in demand is likely to open up a margin of spare capacity, including an eventual rise in unemployment. Consistent with this, recent surveys of business activity, confidence and optimism suggest that the United Kingdom is likely to see little growth in GDP in the second half of this year. 』
経済見通しは下がるのですが、ブリクジットの影響で需要が下がって経済のスラック(英国ではmargin of spare capacityというのが仕様)が拡大して失業が増えるがなという見通し。
『These developments present a trade-off for the MPC between delivering inflation at the target and stabilising activity around potential. The MPC’s remit requires it to explain how it has balanced that trade-off.』
『Given the extent of the likely weakness in demand relative to supply, the MPC judges it appropriate to provide additional stimulus to the economy, thereby reducing the amount of spare capacity at the cost of a temporary period of above-target inflation.』
『Not only will such action help to eliminate the degree of spare capacity over time, but because a persistent shortfall in aggregate demand would pull down on inflation in the medium term, it should also ensure that inflation does not fall back below the target beyond the forecast horizon. Thus, in tolerating a temporary period of above-target inflation, the Committee expects the eventual return of inflation to the target to be more sustainable.』
『The MPC’s choice of instruments is based on a consideration of their likely impact on the real economy and inflation. The MPC has examined closely the interaction between monetary policy and the financial sector, both with regard to ensuring the effective transmission of monetary policy to households and businesses, and with consideration for the financial stability consequences of its policy actions.』
『The cut in Bank Rate will lower borrowing costs for households and businesses. However, as interest rates are close to zero, it is likely to be difficult for some banks and building societies to reduce deposit rates much further, which in turn might limit their ability to cut their lending rates.』
『In order to mitigate this, the MPC is launching a Term Funding Scheme (TFS) that will provide funding for banks at interest rates close to Bank Rate. This monetary policy action should help reinforce the transmission of the reduction in Bank Rate to the real economy to ensure that households and firms benefit from the MPC’s actions. In addition, the TFS provides participants with a cost effective source of funding to support additional lending to the real economy, providing insurance against the risk that conditions tighten in bank funding markets.』
第6パラグラフ(2ページ目)から。 『The expansion of the Bank of England’s asset purchase programme for UK government bonds will impart monetary stimulus by lowering the yields on securities that are used to determine the cost of borrowing for households and businesses. It is also likely to trigger portfolio rebalancing into riskier assets by current holders of government bonds, further enhancing the supply of credit to the broader economy.』
『Purchases of corporate bonds could provide somewhat more stimulus than the same amount of gilt purchases. In particular, given that corporate bonds are higher-yielding instruments than government bonds, investors selling corporate debt to the Bank could be more likely to invest the money received in other corporate assets than those selling gilts. In addition, by increasing demand in secondary markets, purchases by the Bank could reduce liquidity premia; and such purchases could stimulate issuance in sterling corporate bond markets.』
ということで、社債買入の方に期待をしているという感じの説明になっていまして、社債買入によって社債の金利低下、社債打った金融機関のポートフォリオリバランス、社債発行の活発化と金利の低下を期待となっていて、名目としては「purchases by the Bank could reduce liquidity premia」とリスクプレミアムの圧縮という話をしていますな。
・しかし最初から追加を示唆したらそら買入札割れとか起きるわなと
でまあそれはそれで良いとして一つ飛ばして第9パラグラフ(最後から3つ目)を見ますと・・・・・・・
『This package contains a number of mutually reinforcing elements, all of which have scope for further action.』
黒田スキームキタコレ!
『The MPC can act further along each of the dimensions of the package by lowering Bank Rate, by expanding the TFS to reinforce further the monetary transmission mechanism, and by expanding the scale or variety of asset purchases.』 「each of the dimensions of the package」とかクソワロタ。
『If the incoming data prove broadly consistent with the August Inflation Report forecast, a majority of members expect to support a further cut in Bank Rate to its effective lower bound at one of the MPC’s forthcoming meetings during the course of the year. The MPC currently judges this bound to be close to, but a little above, zero.』
