[外部リンク] and Essays by President Robert S. Kaplan 2017 2016 2015 Assessment of Current Economic Conditions and Implications for Monetary Policy February 13, 2017
再掲になりますが [外部リンク] on these considerations, as we continue to make progress in achieving our dual-mandate objectives, I believe that we should be taking steps to remove additional amounts of monetary accommodation. I believe that future removals of accommodation can likely be done in a gradual and patient manner. However, it is my view that moving sooner rather than later will make it more likely that future removals of accommodation can be done gradually-that is, reduce the likelihood that the Fed will get “behind the curve” and feel the need to remove accommodation more rapidly.』
『In addition, as we make further progress in removing accommodation, I believe we should be turning our attention to a discussion of how we might begin the process of reducing the size of the Federal Reserve balance sheet.』
[外部リンク] of the Federal Open Market Committee January 31-February 1, 2017
・SEPのファンチャートに関して
今回は年初一発目なので年次の色々な改訂に関する議案がずらーっと並んだ後に、しらっと『Illustration of Uncertainty in the Summary of Economic Projections』という小見出しがあるのでそっちを先に。
『Participants considered a revised proposal from the subcommittee on communications to add to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) a number of charts (sometimes called fan charts) that would illustrate the uncertainty that attends participants' macroeconomic projections.』
『The revised proposal was based on further analysis and consultations following Committee discussion of a proposal at the January 2016 meeting. Participants generally supported the revised approach and agreed that fan charts would be incorporated in the SEP to be released with the minutes of the March 14-15, 2017, FOMC meeting. The Chair noted that a staff paper on measures of forecast uncertainty in the SEP, including those that would be used as the basis for fan charts in the SEP, would be made available to the public soon after the minutes of the current meeting were published, and that examples of the new charts using previously published data would be released in advance of the March meeting.』
『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』の所をケツから読むのがインスタント読みなのですけれども、ここの最後から3パラグラフを読んでみると・・・・・・・
『Most participants continued to judge that, while the outlook was subject to considerable uncertainty, a gradual pace of rate increases over time was likely to be appropriate to promote the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.』
『Some participants viewed a gradual pace as likely to be warranted because inflation was still running below the Committee's objective or because the proximity of the federal funds rate to the effective lower bound placed constraints on the ability of monetary policy to respond to adverse shocks to the aggregate demand for goods and services.』
『In addition, it was noted that the downward pressure on longer-term interest rates exerted by the Federal Reserve's asset holdings was expected to diminish in the years ahead in light of an anticipated gradual reduction in the size and duration of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Finally, the view that gradual increases in the federal funds rate were likely to be appropriate also reflected the assessment that the neutral real rate--defined as the real interest rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary when the economy is operating at or near its potential--was currently quite low and was likely to rise only slowly over time.』
『Participants emphasized that the Committee might need to change its communications regarding the anticipated path for the policy rate if economic conditions evolved differently than the Committee expected or if the economic outlook changed.』
見通しと異なる経済推移や先行き見通しが代わった時にはコミュニケーションを変化させる必要があるとな。
『They pointed to a number of risks that, if realized, might call for a different policy trajectory than they currently thought most likely to be appropriate.』
ということですが・・・・・・・・・・・
『These included upside risks such as appreciably more expansionary fiscal policy or a more rapid buildup of inflationary pressures, as well as downside risks associated with a possible further appreciation of the dollar or financial vulnerabilities in some foreign economies, together with the proximity of the federal funds rate to the effective lower bound.』
ということで、海外とかドル高の下押し圧力が見通しを変えるリスクというのはあるのだが、一方でトランプ財政が上振れリスクになっているし、「a more rapid buildup of inflationary pressures」ってそれド直球リスクがしらっと入っている辺りが何気にほえーと思うのですけれども、前後の文脈で「財政政策の行く末を見ないと」が連発されているので中和されている感がある。
『Moreover, most participants continued to see heightened uncertainty regarding the size, composition, and timing of possible changes to fiscal and other government policies, and about their net effects on the economy and inflation over the medium term, and they thought some time would likely be required for the outlook to become clearer.』
『A couple of participants argued that such uncertainty should not deter the Committee from taking further steps in the near term to remove monetary policy accommodation, because fiscal and other policies were only some of the many factors that were likely to influence progress toward the Committee's dual-mandate objectives and thus the appropriate course of monetary policy.』
『However, other participants cautioned against adjusting monetary policy in anticipation of policy proposals that might not be enacted or that, if enacted, might turn out to have different consequences for economic activity and inflation than currently anticipated.』
『In discussing the outlook for monetary policy over the period ahead, many participants expressed the view that it might be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate again fairly soon if incoming information on the labor market and inflation was in line with or stronger than their current expectations or if the risks of overshooting the Committee's maximum-employment and inflation objectives increased.』
『A few participants noted that continuing to remove policy accommodation in a timely manner, potentially at an upcoming meeting, would allow the Committee greater flexibility in responding to subsequent changes in economic conditions.』
糊代利上げ論キタコレ。
『Several judged that the risk of a sizable undershooting of the longer-run normal unemployment rate was high, particularly if economic growth was faster than currently expected. If that situation developed, the Committee might need to raise the federal funds rate more quickly than most participants currently anticipated to limit the buildup of inflationary pressures.』
『However, with inflation still short of the Committee's objective and inflation expectations remaining low, a few others continued to see downside risks to inflation or anticipated only a gradual return of inflation to the 2 percent objective as the labor market strengthened further.』
『A couple of participants expressed concern that the Committee's communications about a gradual pace of policy firming might be misunderstood as a commitment to only one or two rate hikes per year and stressed the importance of communicating that policy will respond to the evolving economic outlook as appropriate to achieve the Committee's objectives.』
『Participants also generally agreed that the Committee should begin discussions at upcoming meetings about the economic conditions that could warrant changes in the existing policy of reinvesting proceeds from maturing Treasury securities and principal payments from agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, as well as how those changes would be implemented and communicated.』
ちなみに昨日の講演はこちら。 [外部リンク] Economic Outlook Presented by Patrick T. Harker, President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, PA February 21, 2017
『So, what does all this mean for monetary policy? Given the state of the economy - more or less back to normal - I continue to see three modest rate hikes of 25 basis points each as appropriate for 2017, assuming things stay on track.』
と思いっきり25bp3回の利上げがよろしいという話をど直球で行っていまして、
『I’ve said it before and I don’t mind repeating myself: Monetary policy is a fairly limited tool that is fairly limited in its scope. A lot of people would like to see growth above our 2 percent projection, but that’s not really up to Fed officials. That’s the kind of policy that’s outside our purview.』
『If we really want to move the needle, we need to invest in physical and human capital.』
[外部リンク] Speeches Q&A with Neel Kashkari Neel Kashkari | President Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Financial Planning Association of Minnesota February 21, 2017
ってあるのですがリンク先みれば分かる通りでようつべ1時間とかのヴィデオなのでちょっと(汗)。
○出遅れましたがECB議事要旨
[外部リンク] of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 18-19 January 2017 16 February 2017
イマイチ手抜きにならんのだが『Monetary policy stance and policy considerations』から読んでみる。
『With regard to the monetary policy stance, members widely shared the assessment provided by Mr Praet in his introduction that, while inflation had increased lately, largely owing to base effects in energy prices, underlying inflation pressures had remained subdued and signs of a convincing upward trend were still lacking.』
ということで結局こうなるとじゃあどういう説明してるんだと最初の所(『1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options』のうち前半の『Financial market developments』がクーレ理事で、後半の『The global environment and economic and monetary developments in the euro area』がプラート理事の説明)を見るのが本当は吉なのですがとりあえずそういうもんだと流してしまいますと、ここもとユーロ圏物価が上がっているけど瞬間風速チックな話で、基調は強くなくて別に上昇トレンドがある訳ではないですよという執行部説明に皆さん共有と。
『It was broadly agreed that a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation continued to be needed for euro area inflation pressures to build up and to secure a sustained return of inflation rates towards levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.』
従ってvery substantialな緩和が必要であると。
『Members expressed satisfaction about how financial markets had received the December 2016 policy announcements, demonstrating that the underlying rationale of the APP’s recalibration and the guidance provided in the Governing Council’s communication had been well understood by market participants. The decisions taken in December had succeeded in preserving the very favourable financing conditions that were necessary to secure a sustained convergence of inflation rates towards levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.』
『Financial conditions had overall recorded some broad-based improvement since the December monetary policy meeting and borrowing conditions for firms and households were continuing to benefit from the pass-through of the policy measures.』
『While more time was needed for the policy measures to fully unfold their effects on the euro area economy and ultimately on inflation outcomes - also considering that in the presence of ongoing balance sheet adjustments transmission lags were likely to be longer than usual - it was stressed that the measures were increasingly bearing fruit in terms of rising confidence, employment gains and a broadening of the recovery. Moreover, the accommodative monetary policy stance appeared to be increasingly visible in developments in inflation expectations, which had shown signs of a reversal from previous flat or negative trends, while also reflecting changes in the global environment.』
『Members agreed on the appropriateness of the current monetary policy stance and recent developments were generally seen to vindicate the decisions taken by the Governing Council at its meeting in early December 2016.』
うむ。
『While there had been some positive news since that meeting, the fundamental picture remained largely unaltered and there was no room for complacency, as risks and uncertainties had not receded substantially, notably those related to the political environment at the global level and within the euro area.』
海外(米国でしょ)と欧州の政治リスクもあって先行きのリスクは別にそんなに減ってはいないと。
『Moreover, the recent pick-up in inflation had been mainly driven by an increase in energy prices and, hence, it was premature to draw conclusions as to the possible implications of these recent developments for the medium-term outlook for inflation. The view was widely shared that there was, as yet, insufficient progress towards a durable and self-sustaining convergence in the path of inflation consistent with the Governing Council’s inflation aim. Underlying inflation dynamics had remained subdued and the scenario of an upward trend in inflation still depended crucially on the prevailing very favourable financing conditions, which to a large extent reflected the current accommodative monetary policy stance.』
『In this context, it was recalled that, in line with the Governing Council’s monetary policy strategy and past communication, monetary policy had to be forward-looking and oriented to the medium term, meaning that the Governing Council would look through the volatility in short-term data if judged transient and to have no implication for the medium-term outlook for price stability.』
足もとのデータに一々反応しませんよとかしつこいしつこい。
『Therefore, there was broad agreement to look through recent upturns in headline inflation driven by energy prices, while carefully monitoring potential indirect and second-round effects. This was seen to be fully consistent with the Governing Council’s past decisions and established approach to treating temporary changes in inflation on the upside and on the downside.』
『Against this background, it was widely agreed that it was imperative to maintain a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation for inflation pressures to build up and durably support headline inflation. Otherwise, recent encouraging developments in inflation expectations and the prospects for a sustained adjustment in inflation towards the Governing Council’s inflation aim could be put at risk.』
今のvery substantial degree of monetary accommodationが弱まることはインフレ期待が最近若干改善しているのだがその改善に水を差すとな。
『Therefore, the Governing Council was seen as well advised to remain patient and maintain a “steady hand” to provide stability and predictability in an environment that was still characterised by a high level of uncertainty. At the same time, the point was made that the window of opportunity provided by a prolonged period of favourable monetary and financial conditions needed to be used by other policy areas to bolster sustained growth, namely by speeding up structural reforms.』
『Looking ahead, incoming information had to be monitored carefully, while more time was needed to better assess the recent uptick in inflation and the extent to which energy price developments were passing through to underlying inflation and affecting the medium-term outlook for price developments.』
先行きに関しては最近よくなってきているデータの今後の推移を見ますとな。
・資産買入プログラムの実務的な部分だが「基本は変えない」ということのようで
『Members considered the implementation of the APP to be proceeding smoothly following the decisions taken in December to expand the universe of eligible assets. It was, however, noted that repo rates had recorded a rather pronounced decline over the year-end, especially in some jurisdictions, despite the enhancements made to the Eurosystem’s securities lending facilities. This suggested that these developments were driven by a number of special factors. Moreover, in addition to the impact of the APP, there were also several structural factors boosting the demand for high-quality collateral, including market trends and regulatory changes.』
『It was highlighted that the enhancements to the securities lending programme had been welcomed by market participants as overall use of the programme, and especially of the cash collateral option, had increased, mitigating collateral scarcity around the end of the year.』
レポプログラムの強化は年末の担保需要による需給ひっ迫に対する効果がありましたと。
『Against that background, the Governing Council should carefully monitor market developments and the use of the securities lending facilities, and stand ready to make further adaptations, if needed.』
『Regarding the implementation details on the Governing Council’s December decision to permit asset purchases below the DFR “to the extent necessary”, the choices outlined by Mr C?ure were seen to primarily hinge on the relative weights to be given to the different criteria and restrictions attached to the APP.』
12月に資産買入の制限を一部緩和された件ですが・・・・・・・・
『It was recalled that sticking to the issue and issuer limits had been assessed as most important in this regard. While significant weight was also placed on limiting deviations from the ECB’s capital key, it was also underlined that limited and temporary deviations were possible and inevitable. Thus, there was some room for a trade-off between relative deviations from the capital key across jurisdictions and limiting the extent of purchases below the DFR.』
『All in all, broad support was expressed by members for the way forward indicated by Mr Coure, whereby PSPP purchases below the DFR should, in the first instance, be guided by the application of the capital key across jurisdictions, subject to purchasability constraints. This baseline approach could be reconsidered by the Governing Council should undue market effects materialise. At the same time, it was agreed that, under the PSPP, priority should be given to purchases of assets with yields above the DFR, thereby limiting the amount of purchases below the DFR if not required to achieve the envisaged amounts for each jurisdiction.』
次が『Monetary policy decisions and communication』というのがちょっとだけある。
『As regards communication, members widely agreed to maintain the communication adopted at the December monetary policy meeting and, hence, to confirm the intended pace and horizon of APP purchases and the forward guidance on the key policy rates, as had been suggested by Mr Praet in his introduction.』
これは本当は最初の所を読み直さないといかんのだがまあスルーして。
『This implied reiterating that asset purchases under the APP would continue at the current monthly pace of ユーロ80 billion until the end of March 2017 and were intended to continue at a monthly pace of ユーロ60 billion from April 2017 until the end of the year and, in any case, until the Governing Council saw a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. While it had to be acknowledged that both inflation and growth developments were moving in the right direction, uncertainties had not receded. Therefore, the Governing Council should also continue to signal its willingness and readiness to act, if warranted, to achieve its price stability objective.』
『This included, in particular, its preparedness to adjust the purchase programme in terms of size and/or duration should the outlook become less favourable, or should financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation.』
『Finally, it was felt that a strong call should be made for other policymakers to step up their efforts in support of the euro area recovery and the prospects for sustained growth in the euro area. The presence of an accommodative monetary policy stance and the firming recovery provided euro area governments with a favourable environment to engage decisively in structural reforms to boost investment, reduce structural unemployment and increase potential output.』
『Some critics of the Fed believe that monetary policy was excessively accommodative and a key driver of conditions that led to the crisis, while other critics believe that the economy could have emerged much more quickly from the deep recession had monetary policy reacted differently.』
やり過ぎというのともっとやればよかったという批判が来るのはまあ分かる。
『On the other side, there are fans of the Fed who believe that the nontraditional actions taken by central banks were very successful - so successful that policymakers should consider expanding the use of monetary policy beyond its typical purview.』
こんなにうまく行ったのだからもっと金融政策の範囲を拡張しろというのもあるのか。
『In my view, both sides represent exaggerated expectations of what monetary policy can achieve. And this distorted view is troubling because it makes it harder for the public to understand the rationale for policymakers’ decisions and to evaluate their performance.』
でもってそれに対するメスター総裁のお答え。
『It is no secret that there are several legislative proposals to change the way the Fed pursues its congressionally mandated monetary policy goals. Some proposals seek to restrict the Fed’s ability to pursue these goals in a way that is insulated from short-run political influence. This restriction on monetary policy’s independence would be a significant loss for the nation because, as a substantial body of research and actual practice indicate, when a central bank formulates monetary policy free from short-run political interference and is held accountable for its decisions, better economic outcomes result.』
『Accountability must go hand in hand with independence. That’s why I believe it is time to recalibrate expectations of what monetary policy can achieve. The public needs to know what it can reasonably hold monetary policymakers accountable for. Indeed, even those who set policy would benefit if we kept in mind the serenity prayer: give me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.』
『For the rest of my talk, I’ll elaborate on what this serenity prayer means for four aspects of monetary policy: how monetary policy should address business cycle fluctuations; monetary policy and long-run growth; monetary policy vis-a-vis fiscal policy; and monetary policymakers’ projections of the economy and future path of policy.』
『The final topic I’d like to discuss is the FOMC’s projections of the economy and federal funds rate path. The FOMC is not prescient, nor should we expect it to be.』
へいへい。
『Four times a year, the FOMC provides a summary of economic projections across FOMC participants, conditional on the path of policy that each participant sees as appropriate. The media focuses attention on changes in the projections over the year, and at the end of the year, stories are written about what actually came to pass compared to what the FOMC was projecting at the start of the year.』
そらそうよ。
『For example, according to the central tendency of FOMC participants’ projections, at the start of 2012, real GDP growth for the year was expected to be 2.2 to 2.7 percent. It turns out that the economy grew at only a 1.3 percent pace that year, a forecast miss of around 1.0 to 1.5 percentage points. On the other hand, participants underestimated the improvement seen in the unemployment rate in 2012. At the start of the year, they projected an unemployment rate of 8.2 to 8.5 percent by the fourth quarter, but unemployment ended up lower, at 7.8 percent.』
2012年頭のSEP見通しと結果を比較すると成長が下振れ、失業も下振れと。
『The FOMC also was more optimistic about growth at the start of 2015 than what came to pass, and inflation ran below projections over 2013?2015.』
『The public has to hold the FOMC accountable for its performance, but it should not hold monetary policymakers to an unrealistic standard. To evaluate the performance of the FOMC’s projections, it is important to put these forecast misses into context by remembering that forecast errors of this magnitude, both above and below actual outcomes, are the norm among economic forecasters, not the exception.12』
『Forecasting is difficult because the economy is constantly being buffeted by shocks, data are revised over time, and there is uncertainty about which model will best predict the future path of the economy at any given time.』
とはいえそもそも経済予測は難しいですし当てれば良いという物でも無くて・・・・・・・・・・
『In its Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC publishes a table of the average historical forecast errors across various private-sector and government forecasts.13 For real GDP growth, a 70 percent confidence interval around the forecast one year out is about ±1-3/4 percentage points. The forecast the FOMC made in early 2012 was within the interval. The confidence bands around forecasts of unemployment and inflation one year out are also wide: about ±3/4 percentage point for the unemployment rate, and about ±1 percentage point for inflation. So the FOMC projection performance is quite reasonable by this metric.』
『Similar scrutiny has been applied to changes in the policy path that the FOMC includes in its projections. A small change in the path can generate many headlines. But we should expect the policy paths to be responsive to changes in economic conditions and changes in fiscal and other government policies, to the extent that they change the outlook.』
『Changes in appropriate policy that are based on sound monetary policymaking principles and are systematically related to changes in underlying conditions that affect the medium-run outlook provide useful information on the Fed’s reaction function, helping the public better anticipate how the Fed will change policy when economic conditions change.』
「Changes in appropriate policy that are based on sound monetary policymaking principles」とまあそれはその通りなのですし、メスターさんの言っている趣旨はこれでその通りだとは思うのですが、ただまあこれをゴリゴリ突き詰めていくと足元の動きに一々反応するようになるので、reaction functionをどこに置くのかというのがポイントになるんでネーノと思う。
『As a way to convey some of the uncertainty around our future policy path and outlook, I have been an advocate of the FOMC’s publishing confidence bands around its projections.14 The Committee is discussing it.15』
『Confidence bands will help the public understand some of the risks around our projections and remind them of the reasonable amount of variation to expect in outcomes relative to projections. The bands will also illustrate that while the dispersion across FOMC participants’ projections of the policy path often gets a lot of attention, this dispersion is actually quite narrow compared with the confidence bands.』
『Finally, confidence bands will also be a helpful reminder to policymakers themselves of the uncertainty we constantly live with. So, we all need the serenity to accept that policymakers aren’t prescient and their forecasts will change over time, and the courage to hold policymakers accountable for being principled and systematic in how they react to changes in economic conditions.』
『In summary, I am a strong supporter of insulating monetary policy decisions from short-run political considerations. Accountability must go hand in hand with such independence. For the public to be able to hold policymakers accountable for their policy decisions, it must understand what it is appropriate to expect from monetary policy.』
『Today, I talked about four areas where expectations need some recalibration: how monetary policy should address business cycle fluctuations; the relationship between monetary policy and long-run growth; monetary policy vis-a-vis fiscal policy; and monetary policymakers’ economic and policy path projections.』
『The serenity prayer provides some guidance for that recalibration: We need the serenity to accept the things that cannot be changed by monetary policy (and look for more appropriate solutions). We need the courage to change the things we can (by keeping monetary policy focused on its longer-run goals of price stability and maximum employment). And we need the wisdom to know the difference.』
[外部リンク] Back, Looking Ahead Presentation to the 2017 Economic Forecast Sacramento, California By John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco For delivery on January 17, 2017
ということで先月のを今更引っ張りだして確認しますが(すいません)。
最初の小見出しが『Through the lens of the dual mandate』となっているのですが、こちらを見ますと、まあ雇用に関してはどこの高官もゴールにという話はしますが、この人はその中でもトーンの強い方で・・・・・・・・・・
『Put in those terms, our goal isn’t to have an unemployment rate of zero. Instead, it’s to be near what economists call the “natural rate” of unemployment, the level where the economy is running neither too hot nor too cold. It’s impossible to know exactly what that magic number is, but it’s generally thought to be between 4-3/4 and 5 percent today.1 By the way, that’s about the same number that economists typically thought before the recession, so in this one respect the economy hasn’t changed much over the past decade.』
『With the national unemployment rate now at 4.7 percent, we’ve reached that goal.』
とまあ威勢の良い話をしていて、雇用者数に関してももうちょっと後の方で、
『That’s great news about the job market, and it means that we won’t need as much job growth going forward as we’ve seen in the past few years. Because we’re at maximum employment now, the future is less about creating an ever stronger labor market, and more about maintaining a healthy one.』
てなことで、雇用者数がもうそんなにバカスカ増えなくても良いですとか景気の良い話。
『That means creating enough new jobs to keep up with the increase in the size of the labor force. That number depends on things like the number of people retiring this year or graduating from school and entering the workforce. Relative to past decades, labor force growth has slowed substantially due to an aging population, stabilization in women’s participation in the labor force, and other factors. As a result, the number of new jobs we need has dropped as well.』
『I put it at around 80,000 a month currently. Looking ahead, estimates that take account of likely labor force trends imply a range from 50,000 to a little over 100,000.』
『Last year job gains averaged about 180,000 a month. That’s more than twice as fast as we need to keep up with the trend in labor force growth and, quite honestly, is unsustainable in the long run.』
ということで、今後は去年のような月18万のNFP拡大は要らんという威勢の良い話。
一方の物価ですが・・・・・・・・・・
『Turning to our second mandate of price stability, the Fed’s monetary policy committee-the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC for short-has set a long-run goal of 2 percent inflation. Inflation has been running persistently below that goal for several years. Over the past couple of years, the strengthening of the dollar and declines in energy prices have pushed inflation down, but these influences have been fading. To cut through some of the noise, it’s useful to look at measures of inflation that strip out volatile prices and provide a clearer view of the underlying trend. These suggest that underlying inflation is running about 1-3/4 percent. So, we’re not quite at our target yet, but we’re getting closer. The combination of fading transitory factors and a strong economy should help us get back to our 2 percent goal in the next couple of years.』
『History teaches us that an economy that runs too hot for too long can generate imbalances, eventually leading to excessive inflation, asset market bubbles, and ultimately economic correction and recession.』
『A gradual process of raising rates reduces the risks of such an outcome. It also allows a smoother, more calibrated process of normalization that gives us space to adjust our responses to any surprise changes in economic conditions.』
ほう。
『If we wait too long to remove monetary accommodation, we hazard allowing imbalances to grow, requiring us to play catch-up, and not leaving much room to maneuver. Not to mention, a sudden reversal of policy could be disruptive and slow the economy in unintended ways.』
『As I said, my goal is to sustain the economic expansion. The best way to accomplish that is by supporting a pace of growth consistent with the economy’s potential and 2 percent inflation. I fear that if we allow the economy to overshoot this mark by too much, eventually we will need to reverse course to bring the economy back on track.』
『The experience of past business cycles shows that this is a hard, if not impossible, act to pull off, and ultimately ends in recession. A gradual process of removing monetary accommodation reduces this risk.』
[外部リンク] by President Robert S. Kaplan Assessment of Current Economic Conditions and Implications for Monetary Policy February 13, 2017
ということでエッセイになっているのですが小見出しが、
Energy The District The U.S. Unemployment Inflation Non-U.S. Broader Secular Trends Fiscal and Structural Policies Beyond Monetary Policy My Views Regarding the Current Stance of Monetary Policy
と来ていまして、何気に長いのが最後の3つのうち特に『Broader Secular Trends』と『Fiscal and Structural Policies Beyond Monetary Policy』の所なのですが、この部分は経済構造のトレンドとしてという部分に関わる話なので、直接の金融政策というよりは財政政策や経済政策に関する話となるので、結局手抜きで最後の所を読むのだ。
『As I mentioned earlier, I believe we are making good progress in accomplishing our dual-mandate objectives of full employment and price stability. Regarding our full-employment mandate, I believe there is still some amount of slack in the U.S. workforce. In addition, I continue to believe that in a more interconnected world, excess capacity outside the U.S. may be dampening inflation pressures in the U.S. As a result of these factors, I think we still may have some scope for further job growth without overheating the economy or unduly stressing the capacity of the U.S. workforce. However, having said that, it is my view that we are moving closer to full employment.』
『Regarding inflation, I believe that as the impact of lower energy prices begins to dissipate, and as the labor market continues to tighten, headline inflation is likely to move toward our 2 percent objective over the medium term.』
『While the key secular drivers I discussed earlier will continue to pose challenges for economic growth, I also believe there is a cost to excessive accommodation in terms of penalizing savers, as well as creating distortions and imbalances in investing, hiring and other business decisions. These imbalances are often easier to recognize in hindsight and can be very painful to address.』
『Based on these considerations, as we continue to make progress in achieving our dual-mandate objectives, I believe that we should be taking steps to remove additional amounts of monetary accommodation. I believe that future removals of accommodation can likely be done in a gradual and patient manner.』
「in a gradual and patient manner」という説明で皆さんしらっと流しているのですが、この文言で市場が想定するものと、FED高官の人たちが考えているものが違う気がするし、そもそもFED高官の中でもこの文言によって示される利上げペースが違うのではないか説がだいぶあるのですけど。
『However, it is my view that moving sooner rather than later will make it more likely that future removals of accommodation can be done gradually-that is, reduce the likelihood that the Fed will get “behind the curve” and feel the need to remove accommodation more rapidly.』
[外部リンク] a More Robust Financial System: Where Are We after the Global Financial Crisis and Where Do We Go from Here? Speech at the DICJ-IADI International Conference
『3つめに、中央銀行の「最後の貸し手」(LLR)機能の展開についてお話しします(図表4)。「最後の貸し手」機能とは、伝統的には、特定の金融機関の経営悪化が預金者の心理的な連想や決済ネットワークを通じて他の金融機関に伝播するというシステミック・リスクが生じた場合に、「支払能力はあるが流動性不足に陥った(solvent but illiquid)」金融機関に対して、自国通貨を供給することが一般的な理解とされてきました。』
『Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said today that the economy has continued to improve and called for continued gradual removal of monetary policy accommodation.』
ほう。
『"Over the next year or two, I expect real GDP to grow somewhat faster than 2 percent, the unemployment rate to continue to gradually decline, and inflation to gradually return to the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target," Rosengren said.』
明るい見通し。
『While his forecast envisions a continuation of the economic growth we have seen over the past several years, Rosengren emphasized that the "starting point" is quite different now. "The labor market has significantly improved during the recovery, and my own assessment is that there is very limited slack remaining," he said, showing how the unemployment rate, quits rate, unemployment duration, and participation rate data all support this conclusion. "There is limited room for further tightening in labor markets before one might see more inflationary pressures."』
ということで労働市場のスラックは殆ど無いという認識。
『"Importantly, if GDP is growing faster than potential and we reach both elements of the dual mandate, the Federal Reserve risks 'overshooting,' potentially jeopardizing the very significant progress of the U.S. economy since the financial crisis."』
従ってオーバーシュートのリスクが高まっているキタコレ!
『In Rosengren's view, it will likely be appropriate to raise short-term interest rates at least as quickly as suggested by the Fed's policymakers in the current Summary of Economic Projections median forecast, and possibly even a bit more rapidly than that forecast.』
ベンダーの記事通りの話をしてやがっていますな。
『Consumption is likely to continue to be relatively robust, reflecting payroll employment, real income growth, and wealth gains over the past several years - and "likely to offset areas of the economy that remain relatively weak," notably exports.』
うーんこの全部見通し強い攻撃。
『Rosengren cautioned that significant risks to the U.S. economy still exist, particularly from conditions in overseas economies. And he noted that the future stance of U.S. fiscal policy is still unknown. "These areas of uncertainty can materially impact the forecast, and by extension, the path of policymaking that would be consistent with those forecasts." Rosengren was speaking to the New York Association for Business Economics.』
ということでハーカー総裁。 [外部リンク] Fed’s Harker: Broad Policies Are Needed to Boost Economic Growth February 15, 2017
全文はこちら [外部リンク] Salle University 16th Annual Economic Outlook Presented by Patrick T. Harker, President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia The Union League of Philadelphia Philadelphia, PA February 15, 201
でまあ全文の方ではなく手抜きでサマリーの方を読む(よって以下は全文ではなくサマリーから)。
『Philadelphia, PA - Inflation and labor market indicators suggest that the economy is “in pretty good shape,” but fiscal and other policies are necessary to move the needle on economic growth, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick T. Harker said today at the La Salle University 16th Annual Economic Outlook.』
ということで。
『“After eight-plus long years of recovery, I can say that we’re more or less back to full health,” Harker said. He also said that inflation is on track to meet the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target this year or next, and that unemployment is at or below its natural rate.』
見通しだけで言えばもう達成も同然とな。
『“From an economic modeling standpoint, growth right now is more or less what we should consider normal,” Harker said. “My forecast for 2017 is a touch above 2 percent.”』
成長も自然な状態だと。
『However, Harker said that there are sections of the population that have not experienced economic prosperity through the recovery. “I’m not blind to the realities on the ground, particularly in my own district,” Harker said. “There are pockets here and around the country that have been left out of the rebound.”』
『To address these economic inequalities, Harker said that investment in human and physical capital is vital.』
そらまあそうだが金融政策の役割では無いな。
『“One of the areas we’ve focused on at the Philadelphia Fed is skills training and alternative routes to education and professional readiness,” Harker said. “The data show that there’s a skills gap. That is, there are jobs out there that can’t be filled because people just don’t have the right training.”』
でまあそういう話は金融政策というよりはむしろ政府の経済政策ですなということで。、
『Harker emphasized that the Federal Reserve’s power to spur economic growth is limited. Rather, fiscal and other policies are needed to make substantial changes. “The United States is and has been an economic powerhouse for most of the past century. We’re the world’s largest economy and we have consistently been a source of innovation and invention,” Harker said. “If we want to keep our global edge, it’s time to think about broad policies that look to where we’ll be in the future.”』
ということで、纏めの所は全然金融政策ではないので、具体的に何言ってるかを講演本文から見ますと、講演本文の『Monetary Policy: The Basics』のケツの方にこんなのが。
『For our part, that’s about how we manage interest rates. I see three hikes as appropriate for 2017, assuming things stay on track.』(こちらは講演本文より)
講演はこちらですが、 [外部リンク] Recession, and Recovery: 2007-16
『Note: This is the full text of a speech delivered by Dennis Lockhart in Huntsville, Alabama, on February 14, 2017. This text includes references to slides shown during delivery. A version of this text with embedded slides is available for download as a PDF. This speech is an update of one Lockhart delivered on January 9, 2017, to the Rotary Club of Atlanta.』
[外部リンク] Janet L. Yellen Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C. February 14, 2017
・景気の現状について
『Current Economic Situation and Outlook』というまんまの小見出しである。
『Since my appearance before this Committee last June, the economy has continued to make progress toward our dual-mandate objectives of maximum employment and price stability.』
正常化実施中であるから当たり前だがこういいますよね。
『In the labor market, job gains averaged 190,000 per month over the second half of 2016, and the number of jobs rose an additional 227,000 in January. Those gains bring the total increase in employment since its trough in early 2010 to nearly 16 million. In addition, the unemployment rate, which stood at 4.8 percent in January, is more than 5 percentage points lower than where it stood at its peak in 2010 and is now in line with the median of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' estimates of its longer-run normal level.』
『A broader measure of labor underutilization, which includes those marginally attached to the labor force and people who are working part time but would like a full-time job, has also continued to improve over the past year. In addition, the pace of wage growth has picked up relative to its pace of a few years ago, a further indication that the job market is tightening. Importantly, improvements in the labor market in recent years have been widespread, with large declines in the unemployment rates for all major demographic groups, including African Americans and Hispanics.』
『Even so, it is discouraging that jobless rates for those minorities remain significantly higher than the rate for the nation overall.』
『Ongoing gains in the labor market have been accompanied by a further moderate expansion in economic activity. U.S. real gross domestic product is estimated to have risen 1.9 percent last year, the same as in 2015. Consumer spending has continued to rise at a healthy pace, supported by steady income gains, increases in the value of households' financial assets and homes, favorable levels of consumer sentiment, and low interest rates. Last year's sales of automobiles and light trucks were the highest annual total on record.』
『In contrast, business investment was relatively soft for much of last year, though it posted some larger gains toward the end of the year in part reflecting an apparent end to the sharp declines in spending on drilling and mining structures; moreover, business sentiment has noticeably improved in the past few months. In addition, weak foreign growth and the appreciation of the dollar over the past two years have restrained manufacturing output.』
『Meanwhile, housing construction has continued to trend up at only a modest pace in recent quarters. And, while the lean stock of homes for sale and ongoing labor market gains should provide some support to housing construction going forward, the recent increases in mortgage rates may impart some restraint.』
『Inflation moved up over the past year, mainly because of the diminishing effects of the earlier declines in energy prices and import prices. Total consumer prices as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index rose 1.6 percent in the 12 months ending in December, still below the FOMC's 2 percent objective but up 1 percentage point from its pace in 2015. Core PCE inflation, which excludes the volatile energy and food prices, moved up to about 1-3/4 percent.』
まあここは物価の現状。
『My colleagues on the FOMC and I expect the economy to continue to expand at a moderate pace, with the job market strengthening somewhat further and inflation gradually rising to 2 percent.』
これもFOMCで示す見通しのとおりですな。
『This judgment reflects our view that U.S. monetary policy remains accommodative, and that the pace of global economic activity should pick up over time, supported by accommodative monetary policies abroad. Of course, our inflation outlook also depends importantly on our assessment that longer-run inflation expectations will remain reasonably well anchored.』
『It is reassuring that while market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low, they have risen from the very low levels they reached during the latter part of 2015 and first half of 2016. Meanwhile, most survey measures of longer-term inflation expectations have changed little, on balance, in recent months.』
『As always, considerable uncertainty attends the economic outlook. Among the sources of uncertainty are possible changes in U.S. fiscal and other policies, the future path of productivity growth, and developments abroad.』
『Turning to monetary policy, the FOMC is committed to promoting maximum employment and price stability, as mandated by the Congress. Against the backdrop of headwinds weighing on the economy over the past year, including financial market stresses that emanated from developments abroad, the Committee maintained an unchanged target range for the federal funds rate for most of the year in order to support improvement in the labor market and an increase in inflation toward 2 percent.』
というマクラに続いて、
『At its December meeting, the Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point, to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. In doing so, the Committee recognized the considerable progress the economy had made toward the FOMC's dual objectives. The Committee judged that even after this increase in the federal funds rate target, monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.』
状況が極めて改善したので利上げを開始しましたと。でもってこの先辺りの説明がきな臭い。
『At its meeting that concluded early this month, the Committee left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged but reiterated that it expects the evolution of the economy to warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate to achieve and maintain its employment and inflation objectives.』
『As I noted on previous occasions, waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise, potentially requiring the FOMC to eventually raise rates rapidly, which could risk disrupting financial markets and pushing the economy into recession.』
さらに「私言いましたよね」が続いていて、正常化タイミングを待ちすぎると良くないって指摘を更に投下。
『Incoming data suggest that labor market conditions continue to strengthen and inflation is moving up to 2 percent, consistent with the Committee's expectations. At our upcoming meetings, the Committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with these expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate.』
『The Committee's view that gradual increases in the federal funds rate will likely be appropriate reflects the expectation that the neutral federal funds rate--that is, the interest rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and that keeps the economy operating on an even keel--will rise somewhat over time. Current estimates of the neutral rate are well below pre-crisis levels--a phenomenon that may reflect slow productivity growth, subdued economic growth abroad, strong demand for safe longer-term assets, and other factors. The Committee anticipates that the depressing effect of these factors will diminish somewhat over time, raising the neutral funds rate, albeit to levels that are still low by historical standards.』
『That said, the economic outlook is uncertain, and monetary policy is not on a preset course. FOMC participants will adjust their assessments of the appropriate path for the federal funds rate in response to changes to the economic outlook and associated risks as informed by incoming data. Also, changes in fiscal policy or other economic policies could potentially affect the economic outlook.』
『Of course, it is too early to know what policy changes will be put in place or how their economic effects will unfold. While it is not my intention to opine on specific tax or spending proposals, I would point to the importance of improving the pace of longer-run economic growth and raising American living standards with policies aimed at improving productivity. I would also hope that fiscal policy changes will be consistent with putting U.S. fiscal accounts on a sustainable trajectory. In any event, it is important to remember that fiscal policy is only one of the many factors that can influence the economic outlook and the appropriate course of monetary policy. Overall, the FOMC's monetary policy decisions will be directed to the attainment of its congressionally mandated objectives of maximum employment and price stability.』
『Finally, the Committee has continued its policy of reinvesting proceeds from maturing Treasury securities and principal payments from agency debt and mortgage-backed securities. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, has helped maintain accommodative financial conditions.』
[外部リンク] Updated: 02/09/17 Risk Management in a Low Interest Rate Environment
でまあ最初にサマリーがあるのでここぞとばかりに引用しますと、
『What about the future? In my remarks today, I will discuss my outlook for the U.S. economy and share my views on U.S. monetary policy. Naturally, the views I express will be my own and do not necessarily reflect those of my colleagues on the FOMC or in the Federal Reserve System.』
ということで、
『To begin, let me lay out my main points:
1. I envision the U.S. will experience sound economic growth and a healthy labor market over the next several years. The achievement of the Fed’s employment goal looks to be on course.
2. Inflation has been too low for too long, but we’ve seen some promising signs that it may be poised to return to the 2 percent target that the Fed judges to be consistent with its price stability mandate.3 Still, downside risks remain.
3. An important structural feature to keep in mind when calibrating the future path for monetary policy is that the so-called equilibrium, or neutral, level of interest rates4 is likely a good deal lower than it has been in the past.
4. In a world characterized by lower equilibrium interest rates, there is less room to reduce policy rates when, sometime in the future, the need will inevitably arise. Accordingly, risk-management considerations point policy toward lowering the chance that policymakers again will face difficult ZLB outcomes in the future. This is an important reason why I favor taking a gradual path for the adjustment of the funds rate back toward its long-run level.
『With regard to current risk-management issues, many have made the following argument, and so I’ll just state it briefly. Central bankers have a pretty good handle on how to address rising inflation concerns: Use conventional policies and raise short-term policy interest rates. But when inflation is too low inflation and our policy rate is stuck at the zero lower bound, we struggle to provide adequate accommodation with unconventional policies.』
『Because of this asymmetry, risk-management policies would favor skewing policy today to lower the chances of facing more difficult zero-lower-bound outcomes in the future. I think this strategy is important now. And it will likely continue to be important as we adjust to a low equilibrium interest rate environment. With these considerations in mind, I believe that appropriate policy calls for a slow pace of normalization in order to give the real economy an adequate growth buffer to withstand downside shocks that might otherwise drive us back down to the ZLB.』
『There is another facet to consider, namely, Fed credibility. When making their decisions, economic agents - households and businesses alike - depend on the ability of policymakers to reliably obtain their objectives. If policymakers are unable to achieve their mandated objectives within a reasonable period of time, then credibility will suffer and make those goals even more difficult to achieve.』
『Today, given how long we have been below our inflation objective, I believe the risks are greater that the public doubts our resolve to bring inflation up to 2 percent than they question our will to bring it back down if we were to overshoot 2 percent by a meaningful amount. So, in my opinion, preserving the Fed’s credibility currently requires providing sufficient accommodation to achieve our symmetric inflation objective and maximum employment.』
『One aspect of this strategy is the willingness to accept a modest undershooting of our unemployment goal in order to insure meeting our inflation target. I think the international experiences in Japan and the eurozone show that it is cheaper and more effective to follow policies that establish this credibility before the ZLB looms large.』
多少の物価上振れはキニシナイし、完全雇用以上の状況がモデストなのであればキニシナイとな。
『Of course, we would be in a better place if we had stronger sustainable output growth - both in the U.S. and abroad. Hopefully, nonmonetary policymakers, innovative businesses and hardworking households throughout the world will implement the new policies, develop the new technologies and gain the education and workplace skills that will support stronger growth in structural labor inputs and productivity. The resulting boost to potential output growth would yield rising equilibrium interest rates and important improvements in our many nations’ standards of living. Such success would also better allow monetary policy to become boring again and let monetary policymakers recede further into the background - something that I very much look forward to.』
[外部リンク] K. Tarullo submitted his resignation Friday as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, effective on or around April 5, 2017. He has been a member of the Board since January 28, 2009.』
