『1 例えば、FRB は"Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy (January 24, 2012, as amended effective January 26, 2016)" において、“The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for inflation.” と述べている。』
『日本の経験は、一旦、物価の規範(norm)である長期予想インフレ率が低下(de-anchor)すると、ゼロ金利制約の存在により中央銀行の能力が著しく制約されることを示した。この点、学界の方々には違和感があるかもしれないが、長期予想インフレ率を目標に向けて上げていく(re-anchor)場合、中央銀行がonly game in town では限界がある。』
[外部リンク] LIESMAN. (前半というか殆ど割愛)Finally, why did you remove the word “only” before the word “gradual” when you talked about future rate increases?』
これは声明文の中での先行き利上げに関して、これまで「The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate」ってなっていたのに、このonlyが抜けた件についてどうなのよという質問。
『CHAIR YELLEN. (前半割愛)We did remove the word “only” in the statement today from “gradual.” I think this is something that shouldn’t be overinterpreted.』
んなわきゃーねーのだが以下弁明。
『I regard it as a relatively small change and think it’s appropriate for you to consider it in the context, for example, of the fact that our economic projections are virtually identical to those that we issued in December. They’re essentially unchanged both in terms of the path of the economy and the path of the federal funds rate. So we have carried out a modest adjustment of the federal funds rate because we’ve seen the economy progressing over the last several months in exactly the way that we anticipated.』
冒頭説明にもありましたように、今回の利上げに際して先行きの経済物価見通しをほぼほぼ動かしておらず、物価の現状についてマンデートにショートしているという説明が強気化した、となっているのですけれども、ここでもそういう説明になっていて、まあそんなことですけれどもFF金利の「modest adjustment」を行いまして、それと同じようにonlyを抜いたのは「relatively small change」ですよという話にしておる。
『We haven’t in any way changed our view about where the economy is heading or the risks. We had long said that if the economy progressed, and-it’s, you know, it’s been doing nicely, I think, in making progress, in showing resilience, and we have, you know, have some confidence in the path the economy is on. And if we continue to feel that, we will likely regard it as appropriate to make some further moves to scale back accommodation to move toward neutral, along the lines in the SEP.』
『Now, obviously, there are surprises. Our economic forecasts can change. But the word “gradual,” I think, emphasizes that if things continue in the manner that we’ve been going, as we have said now for quite some time, we think that gradual-some gradual increases in the federal funds rate-will be appropriate. And this is not a, you know, this is not a significant-this is not a significant change』
『NICK TIMIRAOS. Thank you. Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal. Chair Yellen, between the release of the minutes of the previous meeting late last month and your speech in Chicago earlier this month, market expectations about an increase in rates today changed quite dramatically. What happened over the course of those two weeks to make officials far more interested in signaling the idea of raising rates at today’s meeting? And why do you think the market was so out of sync with where the central bank was?』
つーのと最後には市場とFEDの見通しのズレ(out of sync)ってどうよという質問もありますな。
『CHAIR YELLEN. So, when I look at our sequence of communications, they seem to me to have been reasonably consistent over this entire period. We had indicated in December that we expect-we saw the risks as balanced, and if the economy continued to progress along the lines we expected, that several rate increases would likely be appropriate.』
12月に申し上げましたが何か?だそうです。
『The minutes of our January meeting indicated that many participants thought that an increase in the funds rate would be appropriate fairly soon if things continued along those lines.』
『I indicated in my congressional testimony that I thought that, indeed, the economy was progressing in line with our expectations.』
はあ。
『And, as I think all of us-having that expectation and that if the economy continued to progress along the lines that we expected and we continued to see the risks as balanced-do regard it as appropriate to gradually remove accommodation that’s in place by having several interest rate increases this year. As we saw the data continue to come in in line with our expectations, my colleagues and I spoke out and indicated that, indeed, that had been and continued to be our expectations.』
それは分かったが政策反応関数は何なのよという答えは結局なくて以下は市場との認識乖離に関するお話。
『Now, you know, when you ask me, how did we get out of sync with the market, this is something I tried to reflect on a bit in the remarks I made in Chicago. And, of course, it is true that in 2015 and in 2016 each, we raised the federal funds rate only once, and perhaps market participants have been influenced by that pattern.』
『I did try to explain the reasons why we had moved so slowly during those two years. And it reflects, I think, a set of shocks partly emanating from the global economy and risks that we saw to the outlook as well as more fundamental assessments-reassessments pertaining to the neutral level of the federal funds rate and the longer-run normal level of the unemployment rate. So I think there are reasons, but it is mportant for the public to understand that we’re getting closer to reaching our objectives; that policy is accommodative; that although the level of the neutral federal funds rate is probably quite low, we nevertheless have an accommodative stance of policy; and it will be appropriate to gradually move toward a neutral stance if we continue on the path we’re on.』
『BINYAMIN APPELBAUM. Binya Appelbaum, the New York Times. The Bank for International Settlements has raised concerns that central banks are being insufficiently attentive to asset price-excuse me, asset price inflation. And stock market investors in the United States certainly don’t seem to be waiting for the Trump Administration to actually implement its fiscal policies. And I guess I’m just curious to know how much of a concern that is for you. And, if not, why not, given the remarkably elevated level of stock price evaluations?』
資産価格のインフレーションに関してどう思いますトランプ財政期待で株が上がってまっせと。
『CHAIR YELLEN. Well, we do look at financial conditions in formulating our view of the outlook, and stock prices do figure into financial conditions.』
ふむふむ。
『So I think the higher level of stock prices is one factor that looks like it’s likely to somewhat boost consumption spending.』
ワロタというか何というかで、これはイエレン先生本音ポロリじゃろと思います。
『We also noticed that, in the last several months, that risk spreads, particularly for lower-grade corporate issuers, have narrowed, which is another signal that financial conditions have become somewhat easier.』
『Now, on the other side, longer-term interest rates are up some in recent months, and the dollar is a little stronger. How does that net out? There are private-sector analysts that produce financial conditions indices that attempt to aggregate all these different factors affecting financial conditions. And for some of the more prominent analysts and indices, I think the conclusion they have reached is that financial conditions, on balance, have eased, and that’s partly driven by the stock market. So that is a factor that affects the outlook.』
『KATHLEEN HAYS. Chair Yellen, Kathleen Hays. Oh, excuse me, Kathleen Hays from Bloomberg. I’m going to try to take the opposite side of this because-on this question about market expectations and how the markets got things wrong, and then how you say the Fed suddenly clarified what it already said.』
うんうん。
『But, for example, if the-if you look at the Atlanta Fed’s latest GDP tracker for the first quarter, it’s down to 0.9 percent. We had a retail sales report that was mixed. Granted the, you know, upward revisions of previous months make it look better, but the consumer does not appear to be roaring in the first quarter, kind of underscoring the wait and-see attitude you just mentioned.』
『If you look at measures of labor compensation, you note in the statement that they’re not moving up, and, in fact, they are. And if you look at average-there are so many things you can look at. And you yourself have said in the past that the fact that that is happening is perhaps an indication there’s still slack in the labor market.』
『I guess my question is this: In another sense, what happened between December and March?』
質問は仰せの通りと思う。
『GDP is tracking very low. Measures of labor compensation are not threatening to boost inflation any time fast. The consumer is not picking up very much. Fiscal policy-we don’t know what’s going to happen with Donald Trump. And yet you have to raise rates now. So what is the-what is the motivation here? The economy is so far from your forecast in terms of GDP, why does the Fed have to move now? What does this signal, then, about the rest of the year?』
中々しつこい質問ですがその答え。
『CHAIR YELLEN. So GDP is a pretty noisy indicator.』
ワロタ、つーかお前がノイジーと言いたかったのでは?
『If one averages through several quarters, I would describe our economy as one that has been growing around 2 percent per year. And as you can see from our projections, we-that’s something we expect to continue over the next couple of years. Now, that pace of growth has been consistent with a pace of job creation that is more rapid than what is sustainable if labor force participation begins to move down in line with what we see as its longer-run trend with an aging population.』
『KATHLEEN HAYS. [Inaudible] Just quickly, then, I just want to underscore-I want to ask you, so following on that, you expect it to move. But what if it doesn’t? What if GDP doesn’t pick up? What if you don’t see wage measures rising? What if you don’t-what if the core PCE gets stuck at 1.7 percent? Would you-is it your view, perhaps, that if there’s a risk right now in the median forecast for dots, that it’s fewer hikes this year, rather than the consensus, or more?』
『CHAIR YELLEN. Well, look, our policy is not set in stone. It is data dependent, and we’re-we’re not locked into any particular policy path. Our-you know, as you said, the data have not notably strengthened.』
データはnotably strengthenedではないとは言ってるんですが、
『I-there is noise always in the data from quarter to quarter, but we haven’t changed our view of the outlook. We think we’re on the same path, not-we haven’t boosted the outlook, projected faster growth. We think we’re moving along the same course we’ve been on, but it is one that involves gradual tightening in the labor market. I would describe some measures of wage growth as having moved up some. Some measures haven’t moved up, but there’s some evidence that wage growth is gradually moving up, which is also suggestive of a strengthening labor market.』
『JO LING KENT. Hi, Chair Yellen. I’m Jo Ling Kent with NBC News. I just want to know, what message are you trying to send consumers with this particular rate hike?』
『CHAIR YELLEN. I think that’s a great question. I appreciate your asking it. And the simple message is, the economy is doing well.』
ワロタ。
『We have confidence in the robustness of the economy and its resilience to shocks. It’s performed well over the last several years. We have created, since the trough in employment after the financial crisis, around 16 million jobs. The unemployment rate has moved way down, and many more people feel optimistic about their prospects in the labor market. There is job security. We’re seeing more people who are feeling free to quit their jobs, getting outside offers, looking for other opportunities. So I think the job market, which is an important focus for us, is certainly improving.』
以下続くが延々と威勢の良い話をしているだけなので引用割愛。
・symmetricの意味
『JEANNA SMIALEK. Hi, Jeanna Smialek, Bloomberg News. You emphasized in the statement that the Fed’s inflation target is “symmetric.” Would you be able to expand a little bit on why you did that, why it was included, how much of an overshoot would the Fed be willing to tolerate, and for how long?』
『CHAIR YELLEN. Well, a couple of years ago, we included the word “symmetric” in our statement of longer-run goals, and this seemed like an appropriate time to introduce that word into the statement because we had previously indicated that there was a shortfall of inflation from our 2 percent objective.』
『Now, headline inflation has moved almost back up to 2 percent. As I indicated, a better forward-looking measure of inflation, core inflation-that’s not our target, but I think it’s worth looking at because it’s a better forward-looking predictor of headline inflation-I think that’s still running a little bit under 2 percent, but we expect it’s going to move up to 2.』
『And this seemed like a good time to remind Americans that what our objective is is 2 percent inflation. Inflation is not always going to be at 2 percent. It’s-like all economic variables, it fluctuates. Sometimes it’s going to be below 2 percent, sometimes it’s going to be above 2 percent. We’ve had a long period in which inflation has run under 2 percent. As we move back to 2 percent, which is where we’re heading, there will be some times when it’s above 2 percent as well. And it’s a reminder-2 percent is not a ceiling on inflation, it’s a target. It’s where we always want inflation to be heading. And there will be some times when inflation is above 2 percent, just like it’s been below 2 percent. We’re not shooting for inflation above 2 percent, but it’s a reminder that there will be deviations above and below when we’re achieving our objective.』
『JEANNA SMIALEK. How well can you tolerate an overshoot?』
『CHAIR YELLEN. Well, we would-if there were an overshoot and it appeared to be persistent, we would put in place policies to try to bring inflation back to 2 percent. That’s the core set of principles that we have adopted in our statement on longer-run goals and strategy. And exactly how long it would take to get back to 2 percent would depend, in part, on what was happening with respect to employment and our other objectives. So there’s no hard and fast answer to that.』
って全文引用になって申し訳ないのですが、カンサスシティ連銀のサイトを見たところ、今のところこちらの発言はサイトに掲載されていないようですの。[外部リンク] I Dissented President Kashkari explains his vote at the March 2017 FOMC meeting. NEEL KASHKARI | President Published March 17, 2017
『On February 7, I published an essay, “Why I Voted to Hold Rates Steady,” which was a case study that explains the data I look at and framework I use to make my assessment of the appropriate stance of monetary policy. 』
ちなみにこの2/7のは [外部リンク] I Voted to Keep Rates Steady President Kashkari explains his vote at the January 2017 FOMC meeting.
なのですが、これまた冒頭の所に味わいの深い個所があって理由の2番に『Our near-term policy predictions have been wrong a lot over the past few years-better to not make such predictions in the first place.』とかあるのですけど、まあ話を戻しまして・・・・・
『At the February 1 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, I voted with all of my colleagues to keep rates steady. Today I publish an update to that initial essay, using the same framework to explain why I again voted to keep rates steady at the FOMC meeting earlier this week.』
ということで反対の理由はなんでしょうと言いますと。
『What is different now is that the rest of the FOMC voted in favor of an increase. I was alone in my dissent. I am not planning to publish an update after every meeting, but given that I reached a different conclusion than my colleagues, I thought it appropriate to provide an explanation.1』
毎回このような紙を出す訳ではないけど今回は少数派だったから出すと。
『In summary, I dissented because the key data I look at to assess how close we are to meeting our dual mandate goals haven’t changed much at all since our prior meeting.』
『Once the data do support a tightening of monetary policy, I would prefer the next policy move by the FOMC to be publishing a detailed plan that explains how and when we will begin to normalize our balance sheet.』
『Once we put that plan in place, and we see the market reaction to it, we can return to using the federal funds rate to remove monetary accommodation when the data call for it.』
As was the case in the February FOMC meeting, we are still coming up somewhat short on our inflation mandate, and we may not have yet reached maximum employment. Inflation expectations remain well-anchored. Monetary policy is currently somewhat accommodative. There don’t appear to be urgent financial stability risks at the moment. There is great uncertainty about the fiscal outlook. The global environment seems to have a fairly typical level of risk. From a risk management perspective, we have stronger tools to deal with high inflation than low inflation. Looking at all this together led me to vote against a rate increase.』
[外部リンク] FLEMING. Thanks very much, Sam Fleming from the Financial Times. Picking up on the last topic, balance sheet normalization. Clearly you said you don't want to start pulling in the size of the balance sheet until normalization is well under way. Could you give us some sort of sense about what well under way means, at least in your mind? What kind of hurdles are you setting? What kind of economic conditions would you like to see? Is it just a matter of the level of the short-term federal funds rate as being the main issue? And what kind of role do you see the role of the balance sheet playing in the normalization process over the longer term? Is it an active tool, or is it a passive tool? Thanks.』
質問が色々とあるのですが、バランスシート縮小に着手する「well under way」の意味をもう少し詳しくしてくれ、というのと正常化における金利とバランスシートの使い方についてどうなのよという質問がメインですな。
『CHAIR YELLEN. So let me start with the second question first. We've emphasized, for quite some time, that the Committee wishes to use variations in the Fed Funds Rate target, our short-term interest rate target as our key active tool of policy.』
『We think it's much easier in using that tool to communicate the stance of policy. We have much more experience with it, and have a better idea of its impact on the economy. So, while the balance sheet asset purchases are a tool that we could conceivably resort to if we found ourselves in a serious downturn where we were, again, up against the zero bound, and faced with substantial weakness in the economy. It's not a tool that we would want to use as a routine tool of policy.』
『You asked what well under way means. I can't give you a specific answer to that. And I think the right, the right way to look at it is in qualitative, and not quantitative, terms. It doesn't mean some particular cutoff level for the federal funds rate that, when we've reached that level, we would consider ourselves well under way.』
『I think what we want to have is confidence in the economy's trajectory. A sense that the economy will make progress, that we're not overly worried about downside risks, and adverse shocks that could hit the economy, that could quickly after setting it off on the path to shrinking the balance sheet gradually over time cause us to want to begin to add monetary policy accommodation. So I think it has to do with the balance of risks and confidence in the economic outlook, and not simply the level of the federal funds rate. 』
『JASON LANGE. Hi, thank you, Jason Lange with Reuters. You mentioned that you don't, that you don't -- you want to not have to raise rates rapidly, if you were to fall behind the curve. In the current context, gradual has been very, very gradual. Could you describe what a rapid rate of increases should be -- how that should be understood?』
そもそも「rapid rate of increases」とは何ぞやという質問。
『CHAIR YELLEN. So, I'm not sure that I can tell you what a rapid rate of increases is. I think the trajectory that you see is the median in our projections which, this year, looks to a total of three increases. That certainly qualifies as gradual.』
年3回はグラデュアルとな。
『My comfort in using the term gradual comes back, in part, to my judgment that the neutral level of the federal funds rate, namely the level of the federal funds rate, that we keep the economy operating on an even keel. That it's a rate where we neither are pressing on the brake, nor pushing down on the accelerator. That level of interest rates is quite low. So, at present, I see monetary policy as accommodative, namely, the current level of the federal funds rate is below that neutral rate, but not very far below the neutral rate.』
『We're closing in, I think, on our employment objective. We're coming closer on our inflation objective. As we reach those objectives, and particularly, in light of the fact that we see the risks of the outlook as roughly balanced at this point, and that's been our assessment for the last several meetings. It looks, to us, to be appropriate to gradually raise the federal funds rate back in the direction of neutral.』
『And exactly how many increases is that? You know, the SEP give you a sense of what Committee participants envision in a concrete sense, but, you know, if it's one more or one less, I think that still qualifies, to my mind, as gradual, I think if you compare it with any previous tightening cycle, I remember when rates were raised at every meeting, starting in mid-2004. And I think people thought that was a gradual pace measured pace. And we're certainly not envisioning something like that.』
2004年からの毎回の利上げも当時は「gradual pace measured pace」と言われていたじゃないですか、ええもちろん今回そういう事は考えていませんけどね、という事のようで、まあ4回でも十分にグラデュアルなんでしょうなこりゃ。
ステートメントである。 [外部リンク] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in February indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace.』(今回)
『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace.』(前回)
『Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate was little changed in recent months. Household spending has continued to rise moderately while business fixed investment appears to have firmed somewhat.』(今回)
『Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate stayed near its recent low. Household spending has continued to rise moderately while business fixed investment has remained soft. Measures of consumer and business sentiment have improved of late.』(前回)
『Inflation has increased in recent quarters, moving close to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective; excluding energy and food prices, inflation was little changed and continued to run somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.』(今回)
『Inflation increased in recent quarters but is still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.』(前回)
いやこれはキタコレだろとあたしゃ思うのですけれども、これまで物価に関して「is still below the objective」だったのが今回は「moving close to the objective」な訳でして、これはまあ(先日のイエレン講演での話と同様に)「とりあえず今時点での実質FFレートを中立に近くする(今時点での中立FF金利はこの前のイエレン講演だと足もとの金利から1%程度上という話で、ロンガーランのFFではありません)方向性を思いっきり示した(still belowなら引っ張る意味があるがmoving closeなら緩和のスケールバックを行う方が妥当という話になるから)」という風に読めると思うのですけれども・・・・・・・・・・・・
なお市場のインフレ期待とかの文言には変化ないです。
・第2パラグラフ:こちらは一部文言変更あるけど基本は同じ話
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.』(今回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will rise to 2 percent over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.』(前回)
ここでは先行きの所が金融政策スタンスの緩やかな調整によって「inflation will stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term」という表現の変更が行われていますが、これは1パラの物価文言変更を受けているのでまあこれはこういうもんでしょう。でもってリスク認識とかその辺に関する話には変更は無いです。
・第3パラグラフ:利上げしましたよという話
『In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.』(今回)
『In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/2 to 3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.』(前回)
『In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.』(今回)
『In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.』(前回)
この辺はいつもの当たり前の話をしていまして文言一致の巻で問題はこの次だと思うんだが。
『The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal.』(今回)
『In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal.』(前回)
『The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.』(今回)
『The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.』(前回)
『The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.』(今回)
『The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.』(前回)
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action was Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate.』(今回)
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo.』(前回)
まあご覧のとおりでカシュカリさんが現状維持を主張して反対。
○SEPはあまり変化が無かったのでヒャッハーとなったのでしょうな
今回 [外部リンク] of Chair Yellen’s Press Conference Opening Remarks March 15, 2017
・今回の利上げは「見通しの改善」ではないというのは割とトラップだと思う
最初の所ですけどね。
『CHAIR YELLEN: Good afternoon. Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point, bringing it to 3/4 to 1 percent. Our decision to make another gradual reduction in the amount of policy accommodation reflects the economy’s continued progress toward the employment and price stability objectives assigned to us by law.』
『For some time the Committee has judged that, if economic conditions evolved as anticipated, gradual increases in the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate to achieve and maintain our objectives.』
というのは声明文にある通りですが・・・・・・・・・・
『Today’s decision is in line with that view and does not represent a reassessment of the economic outlook or of the appropriate course for monetary policy. I’ll have more to say about monetary policy shortly, but first I’ll review recent economic developments and the outlook.』
『Turning to inflation, the 12-month change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures rose to nearly 2 percent in January, up from less than 1 percent last summer. That rise was largely driven by energy prices, which have been increasing recently after earlier declines. Core inflation--which excludes volatile energy and food prices and tends to be a better indicator of future inflation--has been little changed in recent months at about 1-3/4 percent. We expect core inflation to move up and overall inflation to stabilize around 2 percent over the next couple of years, in line with our longer-run objective.』
『Today’s decision also reflects our view that waiting too long to scale back some accommodation could potentially require us to raise rates rapidly sometime down the road, which, in turn, could risk disrupting financial markets and pushing the economy into recession.』
『We continue to expect that the ongoing strength of the economy will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate to achieve and maintain our objectives. That’s based on our view that the neutral nominal federal funds rate--that is, the interest rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and keeps the economy operating on an even keel--is currently quite low by historical standards.』
中立金利との関係の話です。
『That means that the federal funds rate does not have to rise all that much to get to a neutral policy stance. We also expect the neutral level of the federal funds rate to rise somewhat over time, meaning that additional gradual rate hikes are likely to be appropriate over the next few years to sustain the economic expansion. Even so, the Committee continues to anticipate that the longer-run neutral level of the federal funds rate is still likely to remain below levels that prevailed in previous decades.』
ということでこの辺は先般のイエレン講演と同じ話をしています。
・財政ファクターはいくつも有る中の一要因ですというヘッジは入れています
『As always, the economic outlook is highly uncertain, and participants will adjust their assessments of the appropriate path for the federal funds rate in response to changes to their economic outlooks and views of the risks to their outlooks.』
ということで・・・・・・・・・・・
『Changes in economic policies, including fiscal and other policies, could potentially affect the economic outlook. Of course, it is still too early to know how these policies will unfold. Moreover, fiscal policy is only one of many factors that can influence the outlook.』
『Finally, we will continue to reinvest proceeds from maturing Treasury securities and principal payments from agency debt and mortgage-backed securities. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, has helped maintain accommodative financial conditions.』
というのはまあ良いとしまして、
『As a matter of prudent planning, we discussed at this meeting a number of issues related to an eventual change to our reinvestment policy.』
まあ想定されていた話ですがキタコレですな。
『We made no decisions, and we will continue our discussion at subsequent meetings. In keeping with the principle that the process of normalizing our balance sheet will be gradual and predictable, we will provide more information about our plans as it becomes available.』
[外部リンク] statement to the press conference (with Q&A)
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Vitor Constancio, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 9 March 2017
でまあ微妙に変わっているということでちと長くなるけど前回と比較してみましょう。 [外部リンク] on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We continue to expect them to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases. Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, we confirm that we will continue to make purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) at the current monthly pace of ユーロ80 billion until the end of this month and that, from April 2017, our net asset purchases are intended to continue at a monthly pace of ユーロ60 billion until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. The net purchases will be made alongside reinvestments of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP.』(今回)
『Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We continue to expect them to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases. Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, we confirm that we will continue to make purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) at the current monthly pace of ユーロ80 billion until the end of March 2017 and that, from April 2017, our net asset purchases are intended to continue at a monthly pace of ユーロ60 billion until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. The net purchases will be made alongside reinvestments of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP.』(前回)
『Our monetary policy measures have continued to preserve the very favourable financing conditions that are necessary to secure a sustained convergence of inflation rates towards levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Their ongoing pass-through to the borrowing conditions for firms and households benefits credit creation and supports the steadily firming recovery of the euro area economy. Sentiment indicators suggest that the cyclical recovery may be gaining momentum. Headline inflation has again increased, largely on account of rising energy and food price inflation. However, underlying inflation pressures continue to remain subdued. The Governing Council will continue to look through changes in HICP inflation if judged to be transient and to have no implication for the medium-term outlook for price stability.』
『The monetary policy decisions taken in December 2016 have succeeded in preserving the very favourable financing conditions that are necessary to secure a sustained convergence of inflation rates towards levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Borrowing conditions for firms and households continue to benefit from the pass-through of our measures. As expected, headline inflation has increased lately, largely owing to base effects in energy prices, but underlying inflation pressures remain subdued. The Governing Council will continue to look through changes in HICP inflation if judged to be transient and to have no implication for the medium-term outlook for price stability.』
金融政策によって企業や家計の金融環境を緩和して物価が中期的に2%に、という話は同じですが、今回は「Sentiment indicators suggest that the cyclical recovery may be gaining momentum.」というのがしらっと入っていまして、状況の改善を示していますな。
・金融政策運営に関して
『A very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for underlying inflation pressures to build up and support headline inflation in the medium term. If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, we stand ready to increase our asset purchase programme in terms of size and/or duration.』(今回)
『A very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is needed for euro area inflation pressures to build up and support headline inflation in the medium term. If warranted to achieve its objective, the Governing Council will act by using all the instruments available within its mandate. In particular, if the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, we stand ready to increase our asset purchase programme in terms of size and/or duration.』(前回)
でもって皆様既にご案内の通りですが、今回はこれまで入っていた「If warranted to achieve its objective, the Governing Council will act by using all the instruments available within its mandate.」という威勢の良い「必要ならば更に追加緩和を行います」的な文言(ただしどこぞの日銀と違いまして追加緩和をするとは言っていなくて「必要なすべてのツールを用いて対応する」と言っているだけですけど)がゴッソリと削除されていまして、まあご案内の通りその辺とかその後に出てきた利上げがどうのこうの的なものに反応したりもしていたようですな。
[外部リンク] Fed Names Bostic New President and Chief Executive Officer
『ATLANTA-Raphael W. Bostic will become the 15th president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta effective June 5, 2017, announced Thomas A. Fanning, chairman of the board of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Bostic, age 50, succeeds Dennis Lockhart, who retired from the Atlanta Fed on Feb. 28, 2017. The appointment was jointly approved by eligible directors of the Atlanta Fed's board of directors, all nonbankers by law, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C.』
『The process of scaling back accommodation has so far proceeded at a slower pace than most FOMC participants anticipated in 2014. Both unexpected economic developments and deeper reevaluations of structural trends affecting the U.S. and global economies prompted us to reassess our views on the outlook and associated risks and, consequently, the appropriate stance of monetary policy, both in the near term and the longer run.』
『Looking ahead, we continue to expect the evolution of the economy to warrant further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate. However, given how close we are to meeting our statutory goals, and in the absence of new developments that might materially worsen the economic outlook, the process of scaling back accommodation likely will not be as slow as it was in 2015 and 2016.』
最初の小見出しが『Assessing the Degree of Monetary Policy Accommodation』でして、
『In our monetary policy deliberations, the FOMC always faces two fundamental questions: First, how do we assess the current stance of monetary policy? Second, what are the strategic and tactical considerations that underpin our decisions about the appropriate stance of monetary policy going forward?』
『Gauging the current stance of monetary policy requires arriving at a judgment of what would constitute a neutral policy stance at a given time. A useful concept in this regard is the neutral "real" federal funds rate, defined as the level of the federal funds rate that, when adjusted for inflation, is neither expansionary nor contractionary when the economy is operating near its potential. In effect, a "neutral" policy stance is one where monetary policy neither has its foot on the brake nor is pressing down on the accelerator.』
ということで「実質的なFF金利」で緩和度合いを考えるというまあいつもの話。
『Although the concept of the neutral real federal funds rate is exceptionally useful in assessing policy, it is difficult in practical terms to know with precision where that rate stands. As a result, and as I described in a recent speech, my colleagues and I consider a wide range of information when assessing that rate.2 As I will discuss, our assessments of the neutral rate have significantly shifted down over the past few years.』
でもって中立金利はここ数年低下している、というのもいつもの話。
『In the Committee's most recent projections last December, most FOMC participants assessed the longer-run value of the neutral real federal funds rate to be in the vicinity of 1 percent.3』
ということでロンガーランの実質中立FF金利は1%近辺。
『This level is quite low by historical standards, reflecting, in part, slow productivity growth and an aging population not only in the United States, but also in many advanced economies. Moreover, the current value of the neutral real federal funds rate appears to be even lower than this longer-run value because of several additional headwinds to the U.S. economy in the aftermath of the financial crisis, such as subdued economic growth abroad and perhaps a lingering sense of caution on the part of households and businesses in the wake of the trauma of the Great Recession.』
『It is difficult to say just how low the current neutral rate is because assessments of the effect of post-recession headwinds on the current level of the neutral real rate are subject to a great deal of uncertainty. Some recent estimates of the current value of the neutral real federal funds rate stand close to zero percent.4 With the actual value of the real federal funds rate currently near minus 1 percent, a near-zero estimate of the neutral real rate means that the stance of monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, an assessment that is consistent with the fact that employment has been growing at a pace--around 180,000 net new jobs per month--that is notably above the level estimated to be consistent with the longer-run trend in labor force growth--between 75,000 and 125,000 per month.5』
『As I will explain, this policy stance seems appropriate given that the underlying trend in inflation appears to be still running somewhat below 2 percent. But as that gap closes, with labor market conditions now in the vicinity of our maximum employment objective, the Committee considers it appropriate to move toward a neutral policy stance.』
この後『Post-Crisis Period: Same Strategy, New Tactics』、『2014: A Turning Point for Monetary Policy』、『Uneven Progress in 2015 and into 2016』という話がありまして、整理整頓と何で元々言ってたよりも利上げペースが遅くなったかという話がありまして、この辺に関してもイエレンさんらしく丁寧に整理しているのですが、まあこちらは手抜きマンなのでパス(読むのは推奨なのですけど)しまして、『Reassessing Longer-Run Conditions 』という所に飛びます。
『The slower-than-anticipated increase in our federal funds rate target in 2015 and 2016 reflected more than just the inflation, job market, and foreign developments I mentioned. During that period, the FOMC and most private forecasters generally lowered their assessments of the longer-run neutral level of the real federal funds rate.』
『Indeed, at our October 2015 meeting, the FOMC had a comprehensive discussion of neutral real interest rates and was impressed by the breadth of evidence suggesting that those rates had declined both here and abroad, and that the decline had been going on for some time. In response to this growing evidence, the median assessment by FOMC participants of the longer-run level of the real federal funds rate fell from 1-3/4 percent in June 2014 to 1-1/2 percent in December 2015 and then to 1 percent in December 2016.』
直近までだいぶ下がりましたねということで。
『These reassessments reflected, in part, the persistence of surprisingly sluggish productivity growth--both in the United States and abroad--and suggested that fewer federal funds rate increases would be necessary than previously thought to scale back accommodation.』
でもって労働生産性の伸びの弱さの話とかのいつもの話が背景にあると。
『Partly in response to persistently slow wage growth, FOMC participants and private forecasters have in recent years lowered their estimates of the normal longer-run rate of unemployment. The median projection of FOMC participants of the longer-run level of the unemployment rate fell from about 5-1/4 percent in June 2014 to approximately 4-3/4 percent in December 2016.』
賃金の伸びが弱いので完全雇用水準の推計も下がりましたよと。
『Other things being equal, a lower longer-run level of the unemployment rate suggests that the economy has greater scope to create jobs without generating too much inflation.11 Thus, the downward revisions to FOMC participants' views on the unemployment rate over the longer run contributed to our assessment that monetary policy could stay accommodative longer than we had anticipated in 2014.』
つーことで最後の「今後の話」に参ります。
・今後の話だがこれは出来るなら4回利上げをしようという意思が見られますなあ
『Further Progress since Mid-2016』というキタコレの小見出し。
『The U.S. economy has exhibited remarkable resilience in the face of adverse shocks in recent years, and economic developments since mid-2016 have reinforced the Committee's confidence that the economy is on track to achieve our statutory goals. Job gains have remained quite solid, and the unemployment rate, at 4.8 percent in January, is now in line with the median of FOMC participants' estimates of its longer-run normal level. On the whole, the prospects for further moderate economic growth look encouraging, particularly as risks emanating from abroad appear to have receded somewhat. The Committee currently assesses that the risks to the outlook are roughly balanced.』
『Moreover, after remaining disappointingly low through mid-2016, inflation moved up during the second half of 2016, mainly because of the diminishing effects of the earlier declines in energy prices and import prices. More recently, higher energy prices appear to have temporarily boosted inflation, with the total PCE price index rising nearly 2 percent in the 12 months ending in January. Core PCE inflation--which excludes volatile energy and food prices and, therefore, tends to be a better indicator of future inflation--has been running near 1-3/4 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up, on net, in recent months, although they remain low.』
物価に関しては市場のインフレ期待が水準として低いという部分を除くと大変に威勢の良い説明。
『With the job market strengthening and inflation rising toward our target, the median assessment of FOMC participants as of last December was that a cumulative 3/4 percentage point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate over the course of this year.』
『In light of current economic conditions, such an increase would be consistent with the Committee's expectation that it will raise the target range for the federal funds rate at a gradual pace and would bring the real federal funds rate close to some estimates of its current neutral level.』
『However, partly because my colleagues and I expect the neutral real federal funds rate to rise somewhat over the longer run, we projected additional gradual rate hikes in 2018 and 2019.』
『Our individual projections for the appropriate path for the federal funds rate reflect economic forecasts that generally envision that economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in coming years, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will be at or near 2 percent over the medium term. In short, we currently judge that it will be appropriate to gradually increase the federal funds rate if the economic data continue to come in about as we expect. Indeed, at our meeting later this month, the Committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate.』
これは普通「今月のFOMCで利上げします」と言っているようなもん。
『Nonetheless, as we have said many times--and as my discussion today demonstrates--monetary policy cannot be and is not on a preset course. As in 2015 and 2016, the Committee stands ready to adjust its assessment of the appropriate path for monetary policy if unanticipated developments materially change the economic outlook.』
と一応ヘッジクローズは入っていますが、まあ利上げ予告にも程がありますな。
・でもって纏め
その次に『Monetary Policy Is Not a Panacea』というのがあって、格差が拡大っつーか所得水準の低い部分が回復に取り残されているというようなお話があって、そこは金融政策だけではどうしようも無いので政府などの経済取り組みが必要という話があるのですがそこはパスして『Conclusion』に参ります。
『To conclude, we at the Federal Reserve must remain squarely focused on our congressionally mandated goals. The economy has essentially met the employment portion of our mandate and inflation is moving closer to our 2 percent objective. This outcome suggests that our goal-focused, outlook-dependent approach to scaling back accommodation over the past couple of years has served the U.S. economy well.』
『This same approach will continue to drive our policy decisions in the months and years ahead. With that in mind, our policy aims to support continued growth of the American economy in pursuit of our congressionally mandated objectives. We do that, as I have noted, with an eye always on the risks.』
ということで、
『To that end, we realize that waiting too long to scale back some of our support could potentially require us to raise rates rapidly sometime down the road, which in turn could risk disrupting financial markets and pushing the economy into recession.』
『Having said that, I currently see no evidence that the Federal Reserve has fallen behind the curve, and I therefore continue to have confidence in our judgment that a gradual removal of accommodation is likely to be appropriate. However, as I have noted, unless unanticipated developments adversely affect the economic outlook, the process of scaling back accommodation likely will not be as slow as it was during the past couple of years.』
