単なる紹介でもないページはこちら [外部リンク] Panel: Investment and growth in advanced economies - remarks by Mark Carney 28 June 2017
でもって本チャンはこちら [外部リンク] Panel:Investment and growth in advanced economies Remarks given by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England 2017 ECB Forum on Central Banking, Sintra 28 June 2017
シントラとかエストリルとかフォーラムついでにリゾートですな。
『The experience of business investment in the UK since the onset of the financial crisis broadly matches that elsewhere in the advanced world - a sharp fall followed by a feeble recovery (Chart 1). Peak to trough, the level of UK business investment fell by 20%, and it was six years before it surpassed its pre-crisis level, putting the recent experience at the bottom of the swathe of past UK cycles (Chart 2). In my brief remarks today, I will offer some possible explanations for this performance before concluding with comments on the outlooks for UK investment and monetary policy.』
ということで話が始まりまして、小見出しが
『I. Investment since the crisis』 『II. The Contribution of Central Banks to Investment』 『III. Conclusion 』
『Recognising that the most important contributions will be from structural policies, how can central banks support that belated investment recovery?』
その前のケツの所で『Although these secular forces may likely persist, many of the conditions for a revival in business investment are now in place.』という話をしていまして、金融危機以降に構造的な問題になっている生産性の低下とかそういう話を前段でやっていまして、金融政策はどこへという感じですが、英国の場合はそもそも論として物価の方は目標行ってるどころか盛大に上振れて推移している([外部リンク] Inflation 2.9%を見ましょうという事で)ので立場がだいぶ違う。
『First, we must acknowledge that, while the cost and availability of finance matters; internal cash flows, the profit outlook and uncertainty are far more important determinants of investment. Monetary policy affects companies’ profits and cash flows through its effects on domestic demand and, via the exchange rate, external demand.』
しらっと金融政策で為替に影響を与えて外需にも影響とか言っているのがチャーミング。
『Given the importance of internal finance for investment, and the high hurdle rates investment projects must clear, such indirect effects are more important for investment than the direct effects on the cost of capital. The biggest contributions of central banks are therefore improving the demand and profit outlooks and reducing uncertainty.』
金利経由で企業の借入コストや資本コストを軽減できるという話をしておりますな。
『Allow me to use the current situation in the UK to illustrate these points. UK output is now in sight of potential, and the capital overhang looks set to be eliminated over the next few years.』
デットオーバーハングじゃなくてキャピタルオーバーハングなのか。
『In order to expand, companies will increasingly need to invest. A strengthening global economy should tempt UK companies to do so, particularly since UK companies are generally competitive given the recent fall in sterling. Indeed, the broad-based global recovery is creating thepossibility of a self-reinforcing revival in investment.』
『The Bank of England estimates that more than 80% of the world economy is now growing above potential. Global measures of industrial production and capital goods orders, as well as world trade, have strengthened markedly over the past year, suggesting some rotation in the composition of global demand towards investment. With that more favourable outlook, investment intentions are now rising around the world (Chart 11). 』
『The extent to which it does will depend on other secular factors that have been holding it down, including demographics, debt overhangs and the capital intensity of production.10 In this generally constructive environment, the main issues facing UK companies are uncertainties - about how consumers will adjust to a period of weaker real income growth; about market access post-Brexit; about the potential risks in the transition to new arrangements with the EU and the rest of the world.』
『In this context, the best contribution the Bank of England can make is maintaining financial and monetary stability by pursuing the right policies within consistent frameworks. 』
という話で以下続くのですが、途中を飛ばしまして金融政策ど直球部分を。
『The MPC has also clearly set out its reaction function consistent with its remit. Under the exceptional circumstances Brexit entails (with an inflation overshoot driven entirely by an exchange rate depreciation caused a large fundamental shock), the Committee is required by its remit to balance a period of abovetarget inflation with a period of weaker growth. As the primary objective of monetary policy remains inflation control, any overshoot of inflation above the target can only be temporary in nature and limited in scope. As such, the MPC has been clear that its tolerance for above-target inflation is limited. 』
『Since the prospect of Brexit emerged, financial markets, notably sterling, have marked down the UK’s economic prospects. Monetary policy cannot prevent the weaker real income growth likely to accompany the transition to new trading arrangements with the EU. But it can influence how this hit to incomes is distributed between job losses and price rises. And it can support households and businesses as they adjust to such profound change.』
ブレクジット云々に関しては中銀が何かするという訳には参りませんが。
『As spare capacity erodes, the trade-off that the MPC must balance lessens, and, all else equal, its tolerance for above-target inflation falls (Chart 15).』
『Different members of the MPC will understandably have different views about the outlook and therefore the potential timing of any Bank Rate increase. But all expect that any changes would be limited in scope and gradual in pace.』
『When the MPC last met earlier this month, my view was that given the mixed signals on consumer spending and business investment, it was too early to judge with confidence how large and persistent the slowdown in growth would prove. Moreover, with domestic inflationary pressures, particularly wages and unit labour costs, still subdued, it was appropriate to leave the policy stance unchanged at that time.』
『Some removal of monetary stimulus is likely to become necessary if the trade-off facing the MPC continues to lessen and the policy decision accordingly becomes more conventional.』
キタコレ!
『The extent to which the trade-off moves in that direction will depend on the extent to which weaker consumption growth is offset by other components of demand including business investment, whether wages and unit labour costs begin to firm, and more generally, how the economy reacts to both tighter financial conditions and the reality of Brexit negotiations. These are some of the issues that the MPC will debate in the coming months. 』
ということですがドラギ総裁の発言はこちら。 [外部リンク] the economic recovery Introductory speech by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, Sintra, 27 June 2017
まず冒頭の所がアレ。
『For many years after the financial crisis, economic performance was lacklustre across advanced economies. Now, the global recovery is firming and broadening. A key issue facing policymakers is ensuring that this nascent growth becomes sustainable.』
『Dynamic investment that drives stronger productivity growth is crucial for that - and in turn for the eventual normalisation of monetary policy.』
キタコレ。
『Investment and productivity growth together can unleash a virtuous circle, so that strong growth becomes durable and self-sustaining and, ultimately, is no longer dependent on a sizeable monetary policy stimulus.』
「no longer dependent on a sizeable monetary policy stimulus」とな。
『The discussions we will have over the next two days - in particular understanding the puzzles of slowing productivity growth and persistently low investment - are therefore highly relevant for the path of the economy and of our monetary policy.』
とは言いましても物価が上がらない件については金融政策のパスに影響すると。
『Yet as we anticipate the problems of tomorrow, we must also work on the issues of today. For central banks, this means addressing an unusual situation. We see growth above trend and well distributed across the euro area, but inflation dynamics remain more muted than one would expect on the basis of output gap estimates and historical patterns.』
『An accurate diagnosis of this apparent contradiction is crucial to delivering the appropriate policy response. And the diagnosis, by and large, is this: monetary policy is working to build up reflationary pressures, but this process is being slowed by a combination of external price shocks, more slack in the labour market and a changing relationship between slack and inflation. The past period of low inflation is also perpetuating these dynamics.』
「monetary policy is working to build up reflationary pressures」という認識を示していまして、ただ金融政策が通貨膨張的なプレッシャーとして作用しているにも関わらず、外的な価格ショック、労働市場のスラックの存在、需給ギャップとインフレの関係の変化(=フィリップスカーブのフラット化)によって物価上昇が抑えられている、という認識を示していまして・・・・・・・・
『These effects, however, are on the whole temporary and should not cause inflation to deviate from its trend over the medium term, so long as monetary policy continues to maintain the solid anchoring of inflation expectations.』
『Hence we can be confident that our policy is working and its full effects on inflation will gradually materialise. But for that, our policy needs to be persistent, and we need to be prudent in how we adjust its parameters to improving economic conditions.』
金融政策が効果を発揮して効果を全てだす(=つまり上段で言っていた通貨膨張的プレッシャー)ようになってくることに対して自信を持てるようになったとか威勢のいいことを言ってますが、緩和的な金融政策は持続的に行う必要があると言って「we need to be prudent in how we adjust its parameters to improving economic conditions」と「経済の好転具合に応じて金融緩和のパラメーターを調整することについても慎重に行う必要がある」とは言っているのですが、そもそもその「金融緩和のパラメーターを調整する」というのがうへーという話なのでありますから、そりゃ反応するわなというお話でしょう。
でもって小見出しが、
『Monetary policy is effective in raising demand』 『Temporary external shocks』 『Uncertainty over slack and its impact on inflation』 『Low inflation feeding into price and wage setting』
ということで経済の需要は高まっているけれどもこれこれこういう理由でインフレーションダイナミクスへの波及が遅れております、という説明をしているのですがインスタント読みなので全部ぶっ飛ばして(手抜き)次の小見出しに参りますと『Accompanying the recovery』という今回の講演の題名と同じになるのでそちらを小見出しの頭から。
『So what do these various explanations imply for our monetary policy stance?』
というのは上記小見出しで色々とお話をしている件を受けて、というお話ですな。
『The first point to make is that we face a very different situation today from the one we encountered three years ago. Then, we also faced global shocks and significant labour market slack. But the recovery was still in its infancy. Global growth was slowing, depressing both import prices and net exports. Fiscal policy was less supportive than it is now. And headline inflation was much lower than today and inflation expectations more fragile, creating a higher risk of low inflation becoming entrenched.』
『In this context we faced another risk, too: of permanent damage to the economy through so-called “hysteresis effects”. Given the large degree of slack at the time, the risk was that if output remained below potential for too long, we would see a permanent destruction of productive capacity. The output gap would close the “wrong way” making the losses permanent.』
というような状況が続くと履歴効果が起きて宜しくない状態が定着するリスクもありましたと。
『When we said we wanted our policy to have effects without undue delay, we meant we wanted the output gap to close “upwards” - and before such hysteresis effects could develop. This is why we had to act forcefully.[8]』
だからこそ強力な金融緩和を実施しましたと。
『Now, we can be confident that our policy is working and that those risks have abated.』
でもって今やそのようなリスクは弱まったそうで。
『The threat of deflation is gone and reflationary forces are at play.』
最初の所でもあった奴が来ました。
『And since one of the drivers of inflation today is positive supply developments, this should feed back positively into potential output rather than produce hysteresis. In these conditions, we can be more assured about the return of inflation to our objective than we were a few years ago.』
『This more favourable balance of risks has been already reflected in our monetary policy stance, via the adjustments we have made to our forward guidance.』
『Another considerable change from three years ago is the clarification of the political outlook in the euro area.』
もう一つが政治的な見通しの改善とな。
『For years, the euro area has lived under a cloud of uncertainty about whether the necessary reforms would be implemented at both the domestic and Union levels. This acted as a brake on confidence and investment, which is tantamount to an implicit tightening of economic conditions.』
『Today, things have changed. Political winds are becoming tailwinds. There is newfound confidence in the reform process, and newfound support for European cohesion, which could help unleash pent-up demand and investment.』
とは言ってもルペンがどうしたとかそういう話ではなくて毎度ECBが言ってる改革の方の話ですな。
『Nevertheless, we are still in a situation of continuing slack, and where a long period of subpar inflation translates into a slower return of inflation to our objective. Inflation dynamics are not yet durable and self-sustaining. So our monetary policy needs to be persistent.』
『This is why the Governing Council has repeatedly emphasised that a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for underlying inflation pressures to build up, and to support headline inflation in the medium term. This is reflected in our forward guidance on net asset purchases and interest rates, as well as our decision to reinvest the principal payments received under the APP for as long as necessary.』
だから緩和的な金融政策を必要なだけ継続すると毎度申しております。
『With reflationary dynamics slowly taking hold, we now need to ensure that overall financing conditions continue to support that reflationary process, until they are more durable and self-sustaining.』
『As the economy continues to recover, a constant policy stance will become more accommodative, and the central bank can accompany the recovery by adjusting the parameters of its policy instruments - not in order to tighten the policy stance, but to keep it broadly unchanged.』
『But there is an important caveat that we need to consider. Financing conditions are not only determined by the calibration of central bank instruments, but also by other market prices, some of which are significantly affected by global developments.』
『In the past, especially in times of global uncertainty, volatility in financial market prices has at times caused an unwarranted tightening of financial conditions, which has necessitated a monetary policy response.』
『So in the current context where global uncertainties remain elevated, there are strong grounds for prudence in the adjustment of monetary policy parameters, even when accompanying the recovery. Any adjustments to our stance have to be made gradually, and only when the improving dynamics that justify them appear sufficiently secure.』
でもって最後にさっきあった慎重に対処というのがあって、その条件としては「only when the improving dynamics that justify them appear sufficiently secure.」ということではあるのですが、まあ中央銀行の仕様として、明らかに景気がヒャッハーになるまで待つという事は無いので、そこは今はそう言っているけれども、たぶんこの文言をそのままとって高圧経済キタコレと読む人はいないでしょ(イエレンが既に実演中ですし)とは思いますな、というか市場はきちんとその前の「調整が必要」に反応しているようで。
[外部リンク] of Chair Yellen’s Press Conference June 14, 2017
物価に関しては当然ゴリゴリと突っ込まれているのですがそれに関する部分を飛ばしていたので改めて。
『SAM FLEMING. Thanks very much. Sam Fleming from the Financial Times. We’ve now had a very long streak of-or fairly long streak of weak inflation numbers, at least measured by the CPI this morning as well. Marketplace-based inflation expectations are declining. What kind of vigilance are you now saying is needed in terms of weak inflation? How does that interact with your policy outlook? And would further disappointments argue for pressing “pause” on rate hikes or delaying balance sheet runoff? How do you think about those two potential responses to weak inflation?』
インフレが弱めでBEIは下がっているのだが政策大丈夫かと。
『CHAIR YELLEN. So let me just say, as I emphasized in my statement and always say, monetory policy is not on a preset course.』
一応そこは断るけどどう見てもバランスシート正常化とかは先々までセットしてますよね。まあいいけど。
『We indicated in our statement today that we’re closely monitoring inflation developments and certainly have taken note of the fact that there have been several weak readings, particularly on core inflation.』
ほうほう。
『Our statement indicates that we expect inflation to remain low in the near term. But, on the other hand, we continue to feel that with a strong labor market and a labor market that’s continuing to strengthen, the conditions are in place for inflation to move up.』
『Now, obviously we need to monitor that very carefully and ensure, especially with roughly five years of inflation running under our 2 percent objective-that is a goal to which the committee is strongly committed. And we need to make sure that we have in place the policies that are necessary to achieve 2 percent inflation, and I pledge that we will do that. But let me say, with respect to recent readings, it’s important not to overreact to a few readings, and data on inflation can be noisy.』
「最近の数字はノイズ」来ました!!
『As I pointed out, there have been some idiosyncratic factors I think that have held down inflation in recent months, particularly a huge decline in cell telephone service plan prices, some declines in prescription drugs.』
「特殊要因による押し下げ」来ました!!
『We had an exceptionally low reading on core PCE in March, and that will continue to hold down 12-month changes until that reading drops out. But we are-this morning’s reading on the CPI showed weakness in a number of categories, and it’s certainly something that we will be closely monitoring in the months ahead. We will-we’re focused on making our policy decisions on the medium-term outlook, and we will, you know, be looking carefully at incoming data and, as always, revising our outlook and policy plans as appropriate.』
基調は強いです中期的な見通しに変化はありませんという話を強調。
『SAM FLEMING. Any implications for beginning of runoff and further increases in the fed funds rate?』
と質問が続いても・・・・・・・
『CHAIR YELLEN. So-continue, as today’s actions show, to feel that the economy is doing well, is showing resilience.』
まあ止めるようなサインは無いのかと言われたらレジリアントですと答えるのは順当ですけど。
『We have a very strong labor market, an unemployment rate that’s declined to levels we have not seen since 2001. And, even with some moderation in the pace of job growth, we have a labor market that continues to strengthen and policy remains-remains accommodative. So, I-it’s important that inflation move up to our 2 percent objective, as our projections show we continue to expect that and believe the conditions are in place. But we will monitor incoming data, obviously, and be attentive to rethinking our outlook if it seems appropriate.』
『CRAIG TORRES. Craig Torres from Bloomberg News. Hate to belabor the point on inflation, but I was wondering, I hear a lot of the so-called NAIRU in your conversation now and in other committee members’. It’s an unobservable thing. At best, it’s an estimate. And the assumptions in there seem to me that the economy today is much like the economy yesterday, when, if anything, we’ve learned that the post-recession economy is vastly different than it was before the recession. So I’m wondering, something you’ve talked about is to focus more on the change in inflation-actual inflation, and is it going up or is it going down, and basing policy more on that. What would be the risk of that, and why not adopt that if you have such a long period of underperformance?』
『CHAIR YELLEN. Well, we are closely looking at the actual performance of inflation and altering our views on the basis of discrepancies between what we see and our expectations. And, well, it is very difficult to pin down what is the longer-run normal rate of unemployment, and there’s a great deal of uncertainty about it, and it’s hard to pin down, especially given the fact that the so-called Phillips curve appears to be quite flat. That means that inflation doesn’t respond very much or very quickly to movements in unemployment.』
『Nevertheless, that relationship, I believe, remains at work.』
でもワークしていると思う、だそうです。
『We have seen that operate historically. Now, in the face of very low unemployment that we have seen, while wage growth has picked up somewhat, it remains low, and inflation is influenced by a number of different factors, but we certainly haven’t seen much or any evident upward pressure on inflation. In light of that, the Committee has successively moved down its estimate of the normal longer-run rate of unemployment, and in this projection, it’s moved down to 4.6 percent, a tenth lower than it was last time. So, while the unemployment rate is below that, it’s not that much-it’s not that much below it.』
『HOWARD SCHNEIDER. Howard Schneider with Reuters. So, on inflation again, I just wonder, what’s the possibility that something more, sort of-I mean, nefarious is at work here,right, which is that the, sort of, weight of central bank credibility now-for a generation, really- plus globalization has just pushed the world into a low-inflation environment that’s going to be very hard to get wages and prices moving again. And then, related to that, you know, if NAIRU is 4.2, why not 4 or why not 3.8? You banked a quarter-you know, a full percentage point now, so you’re probably at less risk of falling behind whatever curve exists. Why rush?』
『CHAIR YELLEN. So I don’t think central bank credibility-at least the Fed’s credibility-has been impaired. We look at a whole variety of indicators of inflation expectations. Professional forecasters-whether it’s in the Blue Chip or the Survey of Professional Forecasters, those expectations have remained quite steady and in close alignment with our 2 percent inflation target. TIPS-based measures of inflation compensation do not provide straight reads on market participants’ estimates and expectations about inflation. They embody other elements-risk premia and liquidity premia as well. They had moved down and now have moved-they remain at low levels, but they have moved back up again. It is true that some household surveys of inflation expectations have moved down, but overall I wouldn’t say that we’ve seen a broad undermining of inflation expectations.』
『But you asked also, I guess, about have structural changes perhaps impacted the inflation process, and that certainly is possible. And estimates of the normal longer-run unemployment rate-they are quite uncertain. I agree with your assessment there. We’re really not certain what they are. And policy is not being-is not based on some firmly held preconceived notion.』
「And policy is not being-is not based on some firmly held preconceived notion」ってそれがホンマカイナというのを質問しているのですが結局こう言い切って返されるのよね〜。
『We’re watching very carefully how the actual economy performs. And, you know, I continue to believe, though, that with job growth running well in excess, even with the moderation of the level that’s needed to provide for new entrants in the labor market, we do have a strengthening economy. With policy accommodative, all that we’re doing in raising rates is moving-removing a bit of accommodation heading toward a neutral pace. And I see that as appropriate.』
あくまでも緩和度合いの縮小ですとな。
『We’re not moving so aggressively as to put a brake on continued improvement in the labor market. But I think that that’s a prudent move, to move in a gradual way to remove accommodation, with unemployment now-and not only, I should say, the unemployment rate, but I think any indicator of labor market performance and tightness that you could look at, whether it’s household perceptions of the availability of jobs, difficulty that firms report in hiring workers, the rate at which workers are quitting their jobs, the rate of job openings, all of these indicators do signal a tight labor market.』
労働市場の改善にブレーキを掛けるようなアグレッシブな動きはしていませんとな。
『Now, with inflation below 2 percent, I think it’s appropriate that the labor market be that tight. But, on the other hand, I think we want to avoid the risk. We want to keep the expansion on a sustainable path and avoid the risk that at some point we need-we find ourselves in a situation where we’ve done nothing and then need to raise the funds rate so rapidly that we risk a recession.』
『So moving to some extent in a timely way to remove accommodation with a strong economy and continued labor market strength, the Committee believes, is an appropriate management of risks. But we are attentive to the fact that inflation is running below our 2 percent objective, that we’ve faced that situation now for a long time, and it’s really quite essential that we put in place policies that will succeed in moving inflation back to our 2 percent objective, and it’s a symmetric objective. So that’s a risk that we face as well. The Committee believes we have conditions in place for inflation to move up, but that’s also a risk. And those things point, I think, to a gradual pace of reducing accommodation.』
講演はこちら(だと思う)。 [外部リンク] Remarks at Bank for International Settlements' Annual General Meeting June 25, 2017 Posted June 26, 2017 William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer Remarks at the Bank for International Settlements' Annual General Meeting, Basel, Switzerland
[外部リンク] 決済・市場インフラ委員会(Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures: CPMI)および証券監督者国際機構代表理事会(Board of the International Organization of Securities Commissions: IOSCO)が 2012 年 4 月に策定した国際基準である「金融市場インフラのための原則」に従って、日本銀行が運営する国債振替決済制度および日銀ネット国債系を主な対象範囲とし、情報開示を行うものである。必要に応じて、国債振替決済に付随する日銀ネットの関連事務(国債の DVP 決済、同時担保受払機能など)や日本銀行の運営体制等にも言及している。』
[外部リンク] 決済・市場インフラ委員会(Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures: CPMI)および証券監督者国際機構代表理事会(Board of the International Organization of Securities Commissions: IOSCO)が 2012 年 4 月に策定した国際基準である「金融市場インフラのための原則」に従って、本制度および日銀ネット当預系を主な対象範囲とし、情報開示を行うものである。必要に応じて日中当座貸越や日本銀行の運営体制等にも言及している。』
ローゼングレン総裁 [外部リンク] Stability in a Low Interest Rate Environment By Eric S. Rosengren June 20, 2017
Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren spoke at the De Nederlandsche Bank & Sveriges Riksbank Macroprudential Conference Series in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. He was a discussant for one of the conference papers.
フィッシャー副議長 [外部リンク] 20, 2017 Housing and Financial Stability Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer At the DNB-Riksbank Macroprudential Conference Series, Amsterdam, Netherlands
『DON LEE. Thank you, Don Lee with the LA Times. The Fed's projections continued to show the longer-run federal funds rate at 3 percent. The markets are expecting 2 percent. How big of a concern is that gap in your mind? What are the reasons for that disconnect? And, you know, what are the implications and the risks for the real economy? 』
『CHAIR YELLEN. So let me first say it's not straightforward to determine exactly what expectations are embodied in market prices because they're are Term premia that affect these rates and they may not really be as low as one would infer from a straight read.』
『That said, in part, expectations reflect estimates of what the neutral federal funds rate is and how it's likely to evolve over time. And views have changed about that over time and there is a good deal of uncertainty about it. So, we have recently put out charts that try to show what the range of uncertainty is around our path for the federal funds rate, especially as one goes further out. There's a good deal of uncertainty and that reflects the like all the shocks that can affect the evolution of the economy. And also the fact, we're quite uncertain ourselves about what the likely-- what the evolution will be of the neutral federal funds rate.』
『So, we do try to write that down and provide the public with information about our current expectations. And the median now stands at around 3 percent but we have uncertainty about that. Many of my colleagues, and I, think that the current neutral level is lower than that. And as I said in my opening statement, the fed funds rate path reflects an expectation that that neutral rate will be moving up some in future years. But that remains uncertain and I think that's something that market participants are trying to assess and we will be as well.』
でまあ質問の意図とズレた答えなので再質問。
『DON LEE. Are these to create a volatility in the markets as it adjust to the difference and the gap between the expectation and what the Fed's projections are for longer-run federal funds rate?』
『CHAIR YELLEN. Well, our expectations are little changed. I mean, the projections we released today are essentially identical to those. And I think the market is aware of the views of participants. And is assessing evidence itself to form their own views.』
で?
『And it's important that the market take an independent look and that we get to understand and see how market participants are interpreting evidence on the evolution of the economy. So, it's not an unhealthy thing to have such a gap. And as I just said, our own views are not set in stone but are likely to evolve as well over time.』
[外部リンク] economies have continued to grow at a moderate pace on the whole』(今回英文) 『Overseas economies have continued to grow at a moderate pace, although emerging economies remain sluggish in part. 』(前回英文)
英文を見ると主文にon the wholeが入っている(日本語もそうですけど)ということなので、判断に微妙なヘッジクローズを入れているという読み方になってしまいますけれどもどうなんでしょうかねえ。
[外部リンク] of Chair Yellen’s Press Conference June 14, 2017
・バランスシート縮小着手時期関連の質疑をまずは拾ってみます
冒頭の質問がこれ。
『NICK TIMIRAOS. Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal. Chair Yellen, the principles you released today say the balance sheet wind down should commence once interest rate normalization is well underway. With this latest rate increase, do you believe normalization is now well underway?』
今日利上げしたのでしたら「normalization is now well underway」ではなかろうか、というそら聞くわな、という質問ですがそのお答え。
『CHAIR YELLEN. So that is something that we've said for some time and I previously, when I've been asked what well underway means, said that I don't want to define that in purely quantitative terms but rather in qualitative terms.』
『So, there's no specific level of the federal funds rate that means we're well underway.』
『But it's also a question of not only the current level but our confidence in the outlook and our projections for the future path of the federal funds rate. So, we have increased our federal funds rate target now several times. Our outlook is that we anticipatefurther increases this year and next year for the federal funds rate and our statement indicates thatif the economy continues to evolve in the manner that we expect that we would feel the conditions are will be in place to begin this process this year. 』
our confidence in the outlookが上がったから利上げはしたが、資産買入縮小を開始する訳ではありません、でもour confidence in the outlookによって縮小開始が決まりますそれはこのままなら年内でしょう、とか禅問答にも程があり過ぎる。
でもって後の方になりまして18ページ目までワープしますが。
『KAREN MRACEK. Thank you, Karen Mracek with Market News International. Today, you guys outlined the details of the plan to, when you begin to, and reinvestments. But you stopped short of saying exactly when it would be implemented, only saying this year, and adding that that depended on how the economy evolved. Can you tell us why you decided not to go ahead with it today? Is there are conditions that you're looking for?』
こらまた直球な質問だが「他に条件があるのか」とは中々よろしい。
『And then as a second question, do you think that the-- you could raise rates and begin implementation of the plan at the same time? Thank you.』
利上げとバランスシート縮小着手は同時開催可能かという質問。
『CHAIR YELLEN. So, we have tried as meticulously as we can to provide advanced warning to markets about how we would go about doing this so that market participants can prepare.』
『And today's announcement is another step in that process.』
ふむふむ。
『So, we certainly wanted to get this information out before we actually undertake the beginning of this plan. And, you know, as the statement says, we've made no definite decision on the timing of the plan but the timing of initiating the plan. But if the economy evolves in line with our expectations which, you know, we will be watching, always are, we could put this into effect relatively soon.』
という言い方で「But if the economy evolves in line with our expectations which, you know, we will be watching, always are, we could put this into effect relatively soon.」って言ってるんですからそんなに後に引っ張る感じじゃないですよね、というのは分かる。
『You asked about whether or not we would do that and raise rates at the same meeting, and I would say, we've made no decision about that, and it really hinges on the outlook and our assessment of conditions.』
『MICHAEL DERBY. Mike Derby from Dow Jones Newswires. In light of the plans to trim the balance sheet hopefully later this year, what have you learned about QE and your bond buying policies as a tool for monetary policy?』
縮小するのは良いのだが所でQEって金融政策としてどういうツールだったのとはこらまた良い質問。
『When they were launched, it wasn't something you had, you know, engaged in that scale before, a lot of fear and said it was going to create a hyperinflation that hasn't ever seem to come to pass. So, you know, in light of QE as potentially a tool for the future, you know, it might come back again, what have you learned about how it works in the economy? Like where do you see it affect things? You know, what are sort of the lessons learned of the experience?』
『CHAIR YELLEN. Well, thanks. That's a great question.』
さて・・・・・・・・
『I mean, staff in the Federal Reserve and outside economists who have done a great deal of work trying to evaluate QE, I think the general conclusion is that it has worked in that it has put some downward pressure on longer term interest rates, so-called term premiums embedded in longer term interest rates.』
『But obviously, it has not caused runaway inflation quite the contrary.』
確かにインフレの逸走は起きませんでしたな。
『I mean, that was never my expectation but I do remember when people were afraid that that would happen.』
ほうほう。
『We do have the tools. We have, you know, even with a large balance sheet, we intend to shrink our balance sheet now. But even with a large balance sheet, we retain the ability to move the fed funds rate and set it as appropriate to the needs of the economy.』
『So, I think we have learned that it works. It's a valuable part of the toolkit. It's something that if we were to encounter an episode in the future of extreme weakness where I've said, we want the fed funds rate and movements in short-term interest rates, that's our go-to number one main policy tool. But if we were to hit the zero lower bound and constrained in our use of that tool, certainly balance sheet policies and forward guidance of the type that we provided, I believe based on the evidence of how they worked or to remain part of our toolkit. And we have said in the bullets that we released today on our balance sheet that in such of-- an episode of such extreme weakness in the future, those are things we would consider going forward.』
『MICHAEL DERBY. One small follow-up. Is four and a half trillion sort of a natural limit to how high you might want to push the balance sheet or could you envision it going higher if you needed it to? 』
バランスシート政策って物理的限界あると思うのだが、という微妙なフォロー質問。
『CHAIR YELLEN. Well, we've had no discussion of that issue, you know. And our focus now is on getting it back to a more normal size. But I would say the use of QE in the United States relative to the size of our economy is not as high as it's been in some other countries that have employed it. But that's something we haven't seriously even discussed.』
[外部リンク] a slowdown in the first quarter, economic growth appears to have rebounded, resulting in a moderate pace of growth so far this year. Household spending, which was particularly soft earlier this year, has been supported by solid fundamentals, including ongoing improvement in the job market and relatively high levels of consumer sentiment and wealth. Business investment, which was weak for much of last year, has continued to expand. And exports have shown greater strength this year, in part reflecting a pickup in global growth. Overall, we continue to expect that the economy will expand at a moderate pace over the next few years.』
『In the labor market, job gains have averaged about 160,000 per month since the start of the year--a solid rate of growth that, although a little slower than last year, remains well above estimates of the pace necessary to absorb new entrants to the labor force.』
NFP+16万は十分に強い数字だそうな。
『The unemployment rate has fallen about 1/2 percentage point since the beginning of the year and was 4.3 percent in May, a low level by historical standards and modestly below the median of FOMC participants’ estimates of its longer-run normal level.』
失業率に関してもロンガーランよりも低いと。
『Broader measures of labor market utilization have also improved this year. Participation in the labor force has been little changed, on net, for about three years. Given the underlying downward trend in participation stemming largely from the aging of the U.S. population, a relatively steady participation rate is a further sign of improving conditions in the labor market. Looking ahead, we expect that the job market will strengthen somewhat further.』
ということで労働市場に関するコメントは強いのは想定通りではありますが威勢がよろしい。
『Turning to inflation, the 12-month change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures was 1.7 percent in April, up from less than 1 percent last summer but down somewhat over the past few months. Core inflation--which excludes the volatile food and energy categories and tends to be a better indicator of future inflation--has also edged lower.』
『The recent lower readings on inflation have been driven significantly by what appear to be oneoff reductions in certain categories of prices, such as wireless telephone services and prescription drugs.』
『These price declines will, as a matter of arithmetic, restrain the 12-month inflation figures until the extraordinarily low March reading drops out of the calculation.』
『However, with employment near its maximum sustainable level and the labor market continuing to strengthen, the Committee still expects inflation to move up and stabilize around 2 percent over the next couple of years, in line with our longer-run objective. Nonetheless, in light of the softer recent inflation readings, the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely. 』
とは言ってますが、「in light of the softer recent inflation readings, the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.」なんだったら利上げ見送れよという話なのですから、取ってつけた文言であることは明白。
このあとSEPの説明になるのでそこは飛ばして、
・政策に関して:利上げに関して
『Returning to monetary policy, for the past year and a half the FOMC has been gradually increasing its target range for the federal funds rate as the economy has continued to make progress toward our goals of maximum employment and price stability. Our decision today continues this process. 』
と言ってる位でまあ一時的とか知らんがな攻撃で利上げしている訳ですな。
『We continue to expect that the ongoing strength of the economy will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate to sustain a healthy labor market and stabilize inflation around our 2 percent longer-run objective. That’s based on our view that the federal funds rate remains somewhat below its neutral level--that is, the level of the federal funds rate that is neither expansionary nor contractionary and keeps the economy operating on an even keel. Because the neutral rate is currently quite low by historical standards, the federal funds rate would not have to rise all that much further to get to a neutral policy stance. But because we also expect the neutral level of the federal funds rate to rise somewhat over time, additional gradual rate hikes are likely to be appropriate over the next few years to sustain the economic expansion. Even so, the Committee continues to anticipate that the longer-run neutral level of the federal funds rate is likely to remain below levels that prevailed in previous decades.』
『Finally, as noted in today’s addendum, the Committee affirmed that changing the target range for the federal funds rate is our primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy.』
『In other words, the balance sheet is not intended to be an active tool for monetary policy in normal times. However, the Committee would be prepared to resume reinvestments if a material deterioration in the economic outlook were to warrant a sizable reduction in the federal funds rate. More generally, the Committee would be prepared to use its full range of tools, including altering the size and composition of its balance sheet, if future economic conditions were to warrant a more accommodative monetary policy than can be achieved solely by reducing the federal funds rate. 』
というのはプランの中にもあったのですが、しらっと「the balance sheet is not intended to be an active tool for monetary policy in normal times.」というのを入れていまして、これは(昨日も申しあげましたが)利下げするような状況に追い込まれるまでは延々とバランスシートの縮小をやる、ということですので、BS縮小着手のタイミングで利上げも可能というお話でもあるので、これはどうせ始まってから暫くしないと影響出て来ない(まあそういう風にプラン作っていると思う)のですが、着手自体はサックリとやってくる可能性は割と高いんじゃないのかなーと思うのでした。
[外部リンク] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year.』(今回)
『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen even as growth in economic activity slowed.』(前回)
経済に関して前回あった足元の経済活動がスローになっている云々が削除されました。
『Job gains have moderated but have been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate has declined.』(今回)
『Job gains were solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate declined.』(前回)
『Household spending has picked up in recent months, and business fixed investment has continued to expand.』(今回)
『Household spending rose only modestly, but the fundamentals underpinning the continued growth of consumption remained solid. Business fixed investment firmed.』(前回)
家計の支出と企業の投資に関しての判断は引き上がっています。
『On a 12-month basis, inflation has declined recently and, like the measure excluding food and energy prices, is running somewhat below 2 percent.』(今回)
『Inflation measured on a 12-month basis recently has been running close to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective. Excluding energy and food, consumer prices declined in March and inflation continued to run somewhat below 2 percent.』(前回)
前回はヘッドラインのインフレが「running close to the Committee's 2 percent」とか中々威勢の良い話だったのですが足元ヘッドラインインフレ滑ってここは素直に足元下がっているという話に。
『Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.』(今回)
『Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.』(前回)
インフレ期待や市場のインフレ予想の話に関しては毎度同じです。
・第2パラグラフ:目先の物価パスを下げるものの景気と海外リスクは改善と
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.』(今回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.』(前回)
これはいつもの話。
『The Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further.Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term.』(今回)
『The Committee views the slowing in growth during the first quarter as likely to be transitory and continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term.』(前回)
『Near term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.』(今回)
『Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.』(前回)
『In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.』(今回)
『In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3/4 to 1 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.』(前回)
利上げしましたよーという部分以外は同じですな。
・第4パラグラフ:バランスシートの前段は文言同じです
『In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.』(今回)
『In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.』(前回)
ええいクソ長いという感じですが全文一致です。
・第5パラグラフ:年内にバランスシート縮小開始宣言キタコレ!
『The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction.』(今回)
『The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.』(前回)
『The Committee currently expects to begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated. This program, which would gradually reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings by decreasing reinvestment of principal payments from those securities, is described in the accompanying addendum to the Committee's Policy Normalization Principles and Plans.』(今回)
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; and Jerome H. Powell. Voting against the action was Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate.』(今回)
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; and Jerome H. Powell.』(前回)
[外部リンク] to the Policy Normalization Principles and Plans
『All participants agreed to augment the Committee's Policy Normalization Principles and Plans by providing the following additional details regarding the approach the FOMC intends to use to reduce the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury and agency securities once normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way.1』
ということで、これ全員一致というのがほほーなのですがまあそれはそれとして。
『The Committee intends to gradually reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings by decreasing its reinvestment of the principal payments it receives from securities held in the System Open Market Account. Specifically, such payments will be reinvested only to the extent that they exceed gradually rising caps.』
『For payments of principal that the Federal Reserve receives from maturing Treasury securities, the Committee anticipates that the cap will be $6 billion per month initially and will increase in steps of $6 billion at three-month intervals over 12 months until it reaches $30 billion per month.』
『For payments of principal that the Federal Reserve receives from its holdings of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, the Committee anticipates that the cap will be $4 billion per month initially and will increase in steps of $4 billion at three-month intervals over 12 months until it reaches $20 billion per month.』
『The Committee also anticipates that the caps will remain in place once they reach their respective maximums so that the Federal Reserve's securities holdings will continue to decline in a gradual and predictable manner until the Committee judges that the Federal Reserve is holding no more securities than necessary to implement monetary policy efficiently and effectively.』
『Gradually reducing the Federal Reserve's securities holdings will result in a declining supply of reserve balances. The Committee currently anticipates reducing the quantity of reserve balances, over time, to a level appreciably below that seen in recent years but larger than before the financial crisis; the level will reflect the banking system's demand for reserve balances and the Committee's decisions about how to implement monetary policy most efficiently and effectively in the future.』
『The Committee expects to learn more about the underlying demand for reserves during the process of balance sheet normalization.』
『However, the Committee would be prepared to resume reinvestment of principal payments received on securities held by the Federal Reserve if a material deterioration in the economic outlook were to warrant a sizable reduction in the Committee's target for the federal funds rate. Moreover, the Committee would be prepared to use its full range of tools, including altering the size and composition of its balance sheet, if future economic conditions were to warrant a more accommodative monetary policy than can be achieved solely by reducing the federal funds rate.』
