って言ってるんですが、このSKEWという数値がホイホイ上がっていてその定義が良く分からんからアレなのですが、上記の説明だと「株価が急落するテールリスクが相応に意識され」ている状態なのが市場のプライシング(たぶんオプションか何かなのでしょうかねえ)に反映されている、ということですが、本当の本当にリスク意識が緩むのは「This time is different」とか言っている時であって、テールリスクが相応に意識されているのにリスク認識も緩みやすいという結論になるのは語義矛盾も甚だしいので、ここは何を言いたいのかが分からんのでもう少し丁寧に書いて頂きたいのだが、どうせ本題のFSRとの分量調整上端折ったんでしょうとは思いますけどちょっとそれにしてもアカン。
『In the past you have always stressed when you were buying ユーロ80 billion or ユーロ60 billion that there will be no abrupt end to the purchases in order to avoid cliff effects. Now, given the new amount of ユーロ30 billion, is that still valid? So will there be in any case a phasing out of the purchases? Or from that level would it possible to stop them immediately from one month to the other?』
『You've also stressed the sequencing between net purchases and interest rate hikes. Is there also such a sequencing between interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction? For example the Fed in the US had always argued that it would only start reducing its balance sheets once the interest rate normalisation was well underway. Is that a pattern you would also follow?』
『I may add certainly it's not going to stop suddenly. It's not going to stop suddenly, it's never been our view that things should stop suddenly.』
何だよこの強調。
『But it's open-ended and the large majority of the Governing Council expressed its preference for keeping it open-ended. This is because basically, for a variety of reasons.』
『One of course is to reaffirm a steadfast commitment of the Governing Council to pursue the price stability objective. But also it's due to the fact that there is still a large amount of uncertainty and therefore prudence has inspired many governors to opt for this possibility. So basically, that's what we decided. That's right. Sorry, you…』
『Constancio: No, I am saying that the second question; we do have a sequence which is defined and reaffirmed today so…』
『Draghi: No, but the question here was the sequence about net asset purchases is defined today. The new sequence you are pointing out was actually the same question I have received before. There isn't any sequence between the balance sheet - the stock and the interest rates. No, we have not discussed that.』
『Third, the Eurosystem will reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time after the end of its net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary. This will contribute both to favourable liquidity conditions and to an appropriate monetary policy stance.』
『And fourth, we also decided to continue to conduct the main refinancing operations and three-month longer-term refinancing operations as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment for as long as necessary, and at least until the end of the last reserve maintenance period of 2019.』
と、今回は「as long as necessary」というガイダンス何だかガイダンスじゃないんだかよくわからんas long as necessaryが連発されたのですが、そちらに関しても質問が。
『On the new guidance that you provide on reinvestment that they will continue for an extended period of time and for as long as necessary, could you explain a bit more of what you mean with as long as necessary? How this guidance interacts with the one on rates, is there a sequence? Are they for the same period of time, more or less?(後半の質問割愛)』
『Draghi: Now, the guidance on reinvestment is not related to rates. The sequence stays what it is, namely this - the interest rates will stay and they remain at their present - are expected to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases.』
金利のガイダンスと資産買入のガイダンスは微妙に別だとな。
『However as we moved forward not only this year but also in a previous years, the amounts that we've purchased, the stock has become more and more important. This year as we continue asset purchases, it will keep on increasing. So the commitment that the Eurosystem has taken today is that it will reinvest the principal payments for maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time after the end of its net asset purchases and in any case, as long as necessary. So there isn't any specific link with interest rates. There is no link here.』
『Now, of course as I said I want to stress the importance of reinvestment. I'll never forget that in December 2015 in one of my press - usual periodic press conference like this, we announced a series of measures. We also said, 'Look, we are going to reinvest this.' Basically, there was no reaction, not at all.』
再投資について重要である!と仰せで。
『Not only that but it was actually considered to be totally marginal and in fact there were many sort of wrong estimates of what these potential reinvestments might be. Now, since then we bought a lot of bonds. So this stock now is sizeable and has become an important component of our - as we say here, this continued monetary support is provided by the additional net asset purchases by three elements. The sizeable stock of acquired assets and the forthcoming reinvestments, so the stock and the reinvestments, and by our forward guidance on interest rates. So the three elements interact, act together.』
『Back in December you announced the reduction of the QE, but you insisted it shouldn't be called tapering. After this new recalibration can we assume that the ECB is now tapering, with that word?(後半割愛)』
『Draghi: So the answer to the first question is no. As a matter of fact, there was also another thing that's not discussed. We discussed whether it was proper having open-ended or closed end. As I said a few members would rather have a closed end date or an announcement or some signal that we would go towards that. But then the large majority of the Council preferred to have it open-ended.』
『But there was another thing we didn't discuss: tapering. I don't think this word had been pronounced, if I am not mistaken. In any event it was not discussed and so this is not tapering; it's just a downsize. As I said before, it's consistent with our feedback rule which had been - we've been using all throughout.(後半割愛)』
[外部リンク] Draghi, President of the ECB, Vitor Constancio, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 26 October 2017
『First, the key ECB interest rates were kept unchanged and we continue to expect them to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of our net asset purchases.』
そら金利は動かさんわ。
『Second, as regards non-standard monetary policy measures, we will continue to make purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) at the current monthly pace of ユーロ60 billion until the end of December 2017. From January 2018 our net asset purchases are intended to continue at a monthly pace of ユーロ30 billion until the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, we stand ready to increase the APP in terms of size and/or duration.』
『Third, the Eurosystem will reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time after the end of its net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary. This will contribute both to favourable liquidity conditions and to an appropriate monetary policy stance.』
APPでの保有債券の償還分については再投資を行います。
『And fourth, we also decided to continue to conduct the main refinancing operations and three-month longer-term refinancing operations as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment for as long as necessary, and at least until the end of the last reserve maintenance period of 2019.』
『Today’s monetary policy decisions were taken to preserve the very favourable financing conditions that are still needed for a sustained return of inflation rates towards levels that are below, but close to, 2%.』
まあこれはいつもの話。
『The recalibration of our asset purchases reflects growing confidence in the gradual convergence of inflation rates towards our inflation aim, on account of the increasingly robust and broad-based economic expansion, an uptick in measures of underlying inflation and the continued effective pass-through of our policy measures to the financing conditions of the real economy.』
ここがワロタという感じですが、今回の決定を「recalibration」とか言いまして、どう見ても正常化に向けた動きの続きなのですが、再測定とか再計算とかそういう単語を使っているのがドラギ節という所でしょうな。なお緩和ペースを落としているのですから当たり前ですがその後に続く景気物価認識は「increasingly robust and broad-based economic expansion」であり、「an uptick in measures of underlying inflation」であって、政策効果の波及についても「continued effective pass-through」とゆうとります。
『At the same time, domestic price pressures are still muted overall and the economic outlook and the path of inflation remain conditional on continued support from monetary policy. Therefore, an ample degree of monetary stimulus remains necessary for underlying inflation pressures to continue to build up and support headline inflation developments over the medium term.』
『This continued monetary support is provided by the additional net asset purchases, by the sizeable stock of acquired assets and the forthcoming reinvestments, and by our forward guidance on interest rates.』
[外部リンク] Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan's Experience Speech at the Central Banking Seminar Hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York, October 18)
『もちろん、こうした見通しには不確実性が伴います。米国では、税制改革などの経済政策運営を巡る不透明感が引き続き強いように思います。FRB による金融政策正常化の進展が見込まれる下で、米国の金利上昇等が国際資金フローに及ぼす影響にも注意が必要です。昨年来、いくつかの新興国で大規模な資金流入がみられていることから、反動が生じた際には影響が大きくなる恐れがあります。また、北朝鮮情勢をはじめとする地政学的リスクが高まっているほか、英国の EU 離脱交渉の展開とその影響なども先行きのリスク要因です。』
Raphael Bostic President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Unconventional Monetary Policy: Lessons Learned Conference International Finance Centre Hong Kong October 12, 2017
・経済の認識に関しては盛大に強いのだが物価については注目度を高めに置いている感じはする
最初の小見出しが『Why now? Current state of the U.S. economy』なのですが、経済の認識は基本的に強いのですけれども、物価に関するところが足元の物価にウェイトを置いている(すなわち「基調的に強いのですから無問題」的な話をしないという事です)感がありますな。 この小見出しの最初の部分で、
『So why is the Fed embarking on balance-sheet normalization now? The short answer is that the U.S. economy appears to be on solid footing, and there are several signs that this performance is likely to continue. This year, the U.S. economy is expanding at roughly a 2 percent pace.』
と来ていましてそのあと、
『Moreover, household incomes continue to rise, reflecting ongoing improvement in the labor market. These trends should provide support for increased consumer spending.』
雇用の良さを反映して家計は強い。
『Over the past few years, business investment in the United States has been tepid, partly reflecting a decline in the energy and mining sectors. However, investment growth has picked up over the past few quarters, and I expect it to continue to expand at a pace more consistent with a typical expansion.』
企業も強い。
『Exports have also rebounded over the past few quarters, which should help boost the U.S. factory sector. This improvement reflects a stronger global growth profile and a slight depreciation in the dollar this year.』
『Notwithstanding the weak, hurricane-affected September jobs figure, the underlying strength in the labor market has been somewhat of an upside surprise.』
『Now, it is true that there are few signs that wage growth in the United States is accelerating.』
賃金の伸びの兆候がが見られんと来ましてその先の方では、
『Retail price pressures, like wage growth, appear to be muted.』
となった挙句に、
『The year-over-year growth rate in the Fed's preferred index of inflation-the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index-was at 1.4 percent in August. This is noticeably lower than the inflation rate we had entering into the year, which was near the FOMC's 2 percent longer-run target. Importantly, the weak inflation numbers are not just in the headline statistics. We have also witnessed a slowing in some measures of underlying inflation, such as the core PCE and the Dallas Fed's trimmed-mean PCE measure.』
次の小見出しが『Expected effects of unwinding the Fed's balance sheet』ということでバランスシート 縮小の影響についての予測ってな話になりますが。
『Recent work by Board of Governors staff estimates that, overall, the three major asset-purchase programs resulted in something on the order of a 100-basis-point decline in the 10-year Treasury yield. This result is primarily attributed to the Fed's acting as a consistent buyer of longer-dated securities, which removed some of the risk to private buyers of these securities and hence reduced the interest rate required by market participants to hold them. Other estimates of the effects of the Fed's asset-purchase programs are in the ballpark of the Board staff estimates.』
URL先の方ですと「Recent work」って所にリンクがあってそこを踏みに行きますと、 [外部リンク] NotesThe Effect of the Federal Reserve’s Securities Holdings on Longer-term Interest RatesBrian Bonis, Jane Ihrig, Min Wei1
『As we embark on balance-sheet reductions, there is a natural question: Will these effects be felt in reverse? That is, will the reduction of reinvestments increase 10-year yields and tighten financial conditions as we proceed with winding down the balance sheet?』
でもってそれを削減するとどういうことになるのか?という話ですが・・・・・・
『While much is uncertain about this unprecedented policy unwinding, there are good reasons to think that the effects of a gradual and predictable ramping down of the balance sheet will be smaller than the effects measured as the balance sheet expanded.』
バランスシートの拡大の時よりも縮小の項かは相対的に小さくなるのではないかとの手前味噌感漂うお告げ。
『First, it is plausible to think that the effects of large-scale asset-purchase programs are more powerful in times of instability and significant market disruption. Reductions in risk during times of heightened sensitivity to risk should induce stronger market reactions than during times when risks are considered largely manageable or low.』
『Second, the size of the maximum monthly reductions will be quite low. To start, the balance sheet will be reduced by no more than $10 billion per month. Even at the maximum planned rate of at most $50 billion per month, the monthly reductions will be less than the pace of accruals during the earlier asset-purchase programs. Thus, the exit will be less dramatic than the entry.』
『Third, as the economy has grown, the housing market has stabilized, the stock of outstanding Treasury debt has expanded, and the footprint of the Fed's asset holdings relative to the market has declined. In that sense, some reduction of policy accommodation associated with previous balance-sheet actions has already happened, and hence some fraction of the ultimate market effect has already occurred.』
『Finally, the FOMC communicated its decision to begin reducing the stock of assets held by the Fed, and the contours of its approach, well in advance.』
事前に散々アナウンスしたコミュニケーションの勝利、ということなのですが・・・・・・・・・・
『The series of slowly increasing caps on the size of the balance-sheet reductions that the FOMC has outlined will help ensure that markets can predict the flow of riskless assets that will be available to the private sector. As a consequence, much of the impact of these reductions is likely already built into market interest rates.』
『Our recent experience in this regard supports this view. The announcement of the start of the program, in the September 2017 FOMC statement, had almost no effect on the 10-year Treasury yield. But even compared to the beginning of that deliberation process, some six months ago, the 10-year yield is little changed.』
『I believe this outcome reflects the effectiveness of the FOMC's advance communication regarding the coming balance-sheet policy. And in my view, these communications were a great success.』
そんな認識なのでコミュニケーションポリシーの大勝利と来ています。
でもってコミュニケーションについてはしつこく説明していまして、
『The FOMC reported initial discussions in its March meeting minutes and issued an addendum to the normalization plans at the end of its June meeting. This document outlined the details of the caps and an implementation timeline.』
『The FOMC reported initial discussions in its March meeting minutes and issued an addendum to the normalization plans at the end of its June meeting. This document outlined the details of the caps and an implementation timeline.』
『Finally, FOMC members' public testimony and speeches seemed to focus market participants on the likelihood of a September decision, and this indeed is what happened. As I mentioned, all this preparation was, in my view, key to minimizing any undesirable market volatility. We did not experience a reprise of the so-called "taper tantrum" of 2013.』
『In terms of lessons learned, in my view, the different market responses to the two attempts of our central bank to begin a normalization of the balance sheet?one extreme market volatility and the other virtually no response in real time?highlights the importance of clear communication. While such clarity of purpose and goals is always of value, it is especially so when in the realm of unconventional policy, where there are few guideposts to help shape the expectations of market participants.』
『There are many other items on the list of pros and cons for choosing either the precrisis framework of scarce reserves and active funds rate management, or something more like the current situation, with abundant reserves and interest on excess reserves as the main tool for implementing policy. I have not attempted to do justice to them here, and I have not yet made up my mind on the question of what the normalized size of the balance sheet should be.』
『My point is only to acknowledge that answering this question is the next major step in the process of normalizing monetary policy. Of course, the Federal Reserve System has been actively engaging in this discussion. You can find reports on a few of these discussions in the minutes of the November 2016 FOMC meeting and in the presentation materials from a conference on normalizing central bank balance sheets that the New York Fed hosted this past July.』
『We have the luxury of continuing to be deliberate about seeking answers about the new normal. But I have noted that I view communications about the FOMC's plans as key to the success of full exit from the extraordinary policy interventions of the financial crisis and Great Recession. I look forward to actively engaging with my colleagues in both formulating answers to our outstanding issues and playing my part in communicating our thinking and decisions to the public.』
Raphael Bostic President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Unconventional Monetary Policy: Lessons Learned Conference International Finance Centre Hong Kong October 12, 2017
非伝統的政策に関するコンファランスみたいですな。
アトランタ連銀の総裁講演は最初に箇条書きで要点がありまして便利。
『Atlanta Fed President and CEO Raphael Bostic speaks October 12 on Federal Reserve balance-sheet normalization at the Unconventional Monetary Policy: Lessons Learned Conference in Hong Kong.』
ほうほうそれでそれで???
『Explaining why the Fed is embarking on balance-sheet normalization now, Bostic says the U.S. economy appears to be on solid footing.』
米国経済の成長は力強い足取りなのでバランスシートの正常化に着手しました。
『He believes the Fed's asset-purchase programs during the financial crisis and in the early phases of the recovery had meaningful macroeconomic effects.』
『Bostic says there are good reasons to think that the effects of a gradual and predictable ramping down of the balance sheet will be smaller than the effects measured as the balance sheet expanded.』
『Bostic believes the FOMC's advance communication regarding the size of coming balance-sheet reductions was a great success, as much of their impact is likely already built into market interest rates.』
『Bostic has not yet made up his mind on the question of what the normalized size of the balance sheet should be.』
そらそうよ。
『Bostic says communications about the FOMC's plans are key to the success of full exit from the extraordinary policy interventions of the financial crisis and Great Recession.』
1. はじめに 2. 開会挨拶 3. 前川講演:Some Reflections on Japanese Monetary Policy(日本の金融政策に関する一考察) 4. 基調講演:Rethinking the Power of Forward Guidance―Lessons from Japan―(フォワード・ガイダンスの有効性の再検討―日本からの教訓―) 5. 論文報告セッション (1) Japanese and U.S. Inflation Dynamics in the 21st Century(21 世紀の日本と米国のインフレ動学について) (2) Monetary Policy According to Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) Models(家計の異質性を考慮したニューケインジアン・モデルによる金融政策) (3) Some Evidence on Secular Drivers of U.S. Safe Real Interest Rates(米国実質金利の長期的な変動要因) (4) Market Concentration and Sectoral Inflation under Imperfect Common Knowledge(不完全共有知識下における産業レベルのインフレ動学の特徴) 6.政策パネル討論 (1) パネリストによるプレゼンテーション (2) 一般質疑
ということでFinTechセンターのセンター長の河合さんがCEATEC JAPAN 2017という所で講演を行ったのの講演要旨ではなくスライドが唐突に出てくる中々珍しいパターンというか講演要旨が無くてスライドだけがドーンっていうのは初めてに近い気がするんですが、まあ突如登場の巻(ちなみに海外の地区連銀総裁だとセントルイスとかよくやりますが、講演の方は要旨というよりはアブストラクト程度になっていて、あとはスライドショーでお察しというパターンもありますので、そこまで異例の話ではないのですが、日銀はそういうのやってきたことが無い筈なのでちとこれはビックリ)。
[外部リンク] major interest rate benchmarks - Progress report on implementation of July 2014 FSB recommendations)を公表しました。詳細につきましては、以下をご覧ください。』
てな訳で、
プレスリリース(英語です) [外部リンク] publishes progress report on implementation of IBOR reforms
本文(英語です) [外部リンク] major interest rate benchmarks Progress report on implementation of July 2014 FSB recommendations
プレスリリースの方から
『The Financial Stability Board (FSB) today published a progress report on implementation of the FSB’s 2014 recommendations to reform major interest rate benchmarks such as key interbank offered rates (IBORs).』
ちなみにこの2014年のリコメンデーションとかいうのはこちら [外部リンク] Major Interest Rate Benchmarks 22 July 2014
『The 2014 recommendations included measures to strengthen benchmarks and other potential reference rates based on interbank markets, as well as developing alternative nearly risk-free benchmark rates (RFRs). The recommendations were made following examples of attempted market manipulation and false reporting of global reference rates, together with the post-crisis decline in liquidity in interbank unsecured funding markets.』
『The progress report concludes that IBOR administrators have continued to take important steps to implement the FSB’s recommendations, including steps to adjust methodologies used to calculate benchmark rates. However, in the case of some IBORs, such as LIBOR and EURIBOR, underlying reference transactions in some currency-tenor combinations are scarce and submissions therefore necessarily remain based on a mixture of factors including transactions and judgement by submitters. Regulators have taken a number of steps to address these issues, including developing powers to require mandatory contributions to benchmarks, but it remains challenging to ensure the integrity and robustness of benchmarks and it is uncertain whether submitting banks will continue to make submissions over the medium to long-term.』
てな訳で「integrity and robustness of benchmarks」というのですが、一方でFSBの求めるものとしてそれがトレーダブルレートで実際のトレードレートに依拠していないとイカンというのがあって、先般も申しあげたように市場慣行なんぞは10年のスパンで見た全然違っているという事は多々ある訳で、市場の実勢に沿う形、かつ連続性をできるだけ損なわないようにしながら短期のリファレンスレートを定期的に見直していく形を作った方が建設的だと思うのですが、そうなるとISDAが困っちゃうとかそういう事なんですかねえとは思うけど、ISDAだってクレジットイベントの判定の時に微妙な柔軟性(ギリシャのリストラクチャリングが何故かセーフだったとか)を発揮するんだし、リスクフリーレートに関しても柔軟にやっていけば良いのではないかと思うのですけど、今後この扱いってどうするんでしょうかねえ。
途中飛ばして、
『The official sector has also actively engaged with the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) to tackle the risks associated with permanent discontinuation of widely used IBORs. ISDA has established a series of working groups and is drafting fall-back arrangements for new derivatives contracts and a future protocol to amend existing contracts.』
LIBOR廃止になったら「これを使いますので読み替えて下さい」ってISDAがやるんでしょうな。
『The official sector places great importance on all industry stakeholders, on both the buy and sell side, entering into such protocols. It is also important that work on contract robustness is extended to other non-derivative markets where contracts reference IBORs such as mortgages, loans, floating rate notes and futures contracts.』
『The FSB will publish another progress report in 2018.』
[外部リンク] Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』のケツの方から読んでいくという手抜きモードなのですが、今日は頑張って(?)労働市場の所から最後まで読んでみる。
・賃金がアガランチ会長な件について
9パラグラフ目からになります。
『Labor market conditions strengthened further in recent months. The increases in nonfarm payroll employment in July and August remained well above the pace likely to be sustainable in the longer run. Although the unemployment rate was little changed from March to August, it remained below participants' estimates of its longer-run normal level.』
『Other indicators suggested that labor market conditions had continued to tighten over recent quarters. The labor force participation rate had been moving sideways despite factors, such as demographic changes, that were contributing to a declining longer-run trend. In addition, the number of individuals working part time for economic reasons, as a share of household employment, had moved lower. The job openings rate, the quits rate, households' assessments of job availability, and the labor market conditions index prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City had returned to pre-recession levels.』
と、労働市場の現状については威勢の良い話が続きます。
『However, some participants still saw room for further increases in labor utilization, with a couple of them noting that the employment-to-population ratio and the participation rate for prime-age workers had not fully recovered to pre-recession levels.』
『Against the backdrop of the continued strengthening in labor market conditions, participants discussed recent wage developments.』
てな訳で10パラグラフ目は賃金のお話。
『Increases in most aggregate measures of hourly wages and labor compensation remained subdued, and several participants commented that the absence of broad-based upward wage pressures suggested that the sustainable rate of unemployment might be lower than they currently estimated.』
『Other factors that may have been contributing to the subdued pace of wage increases reported in the national data included low productivity growth, changes in the composition of the workforce, and competitive pressure on employers to hold down their costs.』
『However, reports from business contacts in several Districts indicated that employers in labor markets in which demand was high or in which workers in some occupations were in short supply were raising wages noticeably to compete for workers and limit turnover. It was noted that the expected increase in demand for skilled construction workers for reconstruction in hurricane-affected areas would likely exacerbate existing shortages.』
『Most participants expected wage increases to pick up over time as the labor market strengthened further; a couple of participants cautioned that a broader acceleration in wages may already have begun, consistent with already-tight labor market conditions.』
『Based on the available data, PCE price inflation over the 12 months ending in August was estimated to be about 1-1/2 percent, remaining below the Committee's longer-run objective.』
四捨五入すれば2じゃないかと言いたくなるがそうはならないFOMC。
『In their review of the recent data and the outlook for inflation, participants discussed a number of factors that could be contributing to the low readings on consumer prices this year and weighed the extent to which those factors might be transitory or could prove more persistent.』
色々な要因について一時的なのか長く引っ張りそうなのかを点検と。
『Many participants continued to believe that the cyclical pressures associated with a tightening labor market or an economy operating above its potential were likely to show through to higher inflation over the medium term. In addition, many judged that at least part of the softening in inflation this year was the result of idiosyncratic or one-time factors, and, thus, their effects were likely to fade over time.』
『However, other developments, such as the effects of earlier changes to government health-care programs that had been holding down health-care costs, might continue to do so for some time.』
『Some participants discussed the possibility that secular trends, such as the influence of technological innovations on competition and business pricing, also might have been muting inflationary pressures and could be intensifying. It was noted that other advanced economies were also experiencing low inflation, which might suggest that common global factors could be contributing to persistence of below-target inflation in the United States and abroad.』
『Several participants commented on the importance of longer-run inflation expectations to the outlook for a return of inflation to 2 percent. A number of indicators of inflation expectations, including survey statistics and estimates derived from financial market data, were generally viewed as indicating that longer-run inflation expectations remained reasonably stable, although a few participants saw some of these measures as low or slipping.』
『Participants raised a number of important considerations about the implications of persistently low inflation for the path of the federal funds rate over the medium run.』
ということで。
『Several expressed concern that the persistence of low rates of inflation might imply that the underlying trend was running below 2 percent, risking a decline in inflation expectations. If so, the appropriate policy path should take into account the need to bolster inflation expectations in order to ensure that inflation returned to 2 percent and to prevent erosion in the credibility of the Committee's objective. It was also noted that the persistence of low inflation might result in the federal funds rate staying uncomfortably close to its effective lower bound.』
『However, a few others pointed out the need to consider the lags in the response of inflation to tightening resource utilization and, thus, increasing upside risks to inflation as the labor market tightened further.』
『On balance, participants continued to forecast that PCE price inflation would stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term.』
両端の見解を出しておいて結論これかよという感じですがまあ続きがある。
『However, several noted that in preparing their projections for this meeting, they had taken on board the likelihood that convergence to the Committee's symmetric 2 percent inflation objective might take somewhat longer than they anticipated earlier.』
『Participants generally agreed it would be important to monitor inflation developments closely. Several of them noted that interpreting the next few inflation reports would likely be complicated by the temporary run-up in energy costs and in the prices of other items affected by storm-related disruptions and rebuilding.』
『In financial markets, longer-term interest rates and the foreign exchange value of the dollar declined over the intermeeting period, and equity prices increased. It was noted that U.S. financial conditions recently appeared to be responding as much or more to economic and financial news from abroad as to domestic developments.』
ドル安と株高で金融環境が緩和されましたと。
『Many participants viewed accommodative financial conditions, which had prevailed even as the Committee raised the federal funds rate, as likely to provide support for the economic expansion. However, a couple of those participants expressed concern that the persistence of highly accommodative financial conditions could, over time, pose risks to financial stability. In contrast, a few participants cautioned that these financial market conditions might not deliver much impetus to aggregate demand if they instead reflected a more pessimistic assessment of prospects for longer-run economic growth and, accordingly, a view that the longer-run neutral rate of interest in the United States would remain low.』
『In their discussion of monetary policy, all participants agreed that the economy had evolved broadly as they had anticipated at the time of the June meeting and that the incoming data had not materially altered the medium-term economic outlook. Consistent with those assessments, participants saw it as appropriate, at this meeting, to announce implementation of the plan for reducing the Federal Reserve's securities holdings that the Committee released in June.』
中期的な見通しに変化が無いので今回バランスシート縮小着手を決定。
『Many underscored that the reduction in securities holdings would be gradual and that financial market participants appeared to have a clear understanding of the Committee's planned approach for a gradual normalization of the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Consequently, participants generally expected that any reaction in financial markets to the start of balance sheet normalization would likely be limited.』
まあこれだけアナウンスしたし額も少しずつだから初期の影響は少ないでしょうと。
でもって次のパラグラフが金利の話。
『With the medium-term outlook little changed, inflation below 2 percent, and the neutral rate of interest estimated to be quite low, all participants thought it would be appropriate for the Committee to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting, and nearly all supported again indicating in the postmeeting statement that a gradual approach to increasing the federal funds rate will likely be warranted.』
『Nevertheless, many participants expressed concern that the low inflation readings this year might reflect not only transitory factors, but also the influence of developments that could prove more persistent, and it was noted that some patience in removing policy accommodation while assessing trends in inflation was warranted.』
『A few of these participants thought that no further increases in the federal funds rate were called for in the near term or that the upward trajectory of the federal funds rate might appropriately be quite shallow.』
『Some other participants, however, were more worried about upside risks to inflation arising from a labor market that had already reached full employment and was projected to tighten further. Their concerns were heightened by the apparent easing in financial conditions that had developed since the Committee's policy normalization process was initiated in December 2015. These participants cautioned that an unduly slow pace in removing policy accommodation could result in an overshoot of the Committee's inflation objective in the medium term that would likely be costly to reverse or could lead to an intensification of financial stability risks or to other imbalances that might prove difficult to unwind.』
『Consistent with the expectation that a gradual rise in the federal funds rate would be appropriate, many participants thought that another increase in the target range later this year was likely to be warranted if the medium-term outlook remained broadly unchanged.』
『Several others noted that, in light of the uncertainty around their outlook for inflation, their decision on whether to take such a policy action would depend importantly on whether the economic data in coming months increased their confidence that inflation was moving up toward the Committee's objective. A few participants thought that additional increases in the federal funds rate should be deferred until incoming information confirmed that the low readings on inflation this year were not likely to persist and that inflation was clearly on a path toward the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term.』
[外部リンク] 年以降の政策、その中でも特に日本銀行の政策は、顕著な効果があったようにみえる。コールレートを下げる余地がほとんどなかったにもかかわらず、安倍首相の就任以来、日本銀行は株式市場や長期金利、為替レートにみられるように、金融環境を大幅に緩和させた 16。すなわち、経済成長率は上向き、2013 年初めの平均で+1.1%となっている。これはおそらく潜在成長率を上回っており、労働市場にみられる改善と整合的である。名目 GDP は縮小が続いていたが、過去 4 年間で平均+2.1%成長し、財政の持続可能性改善にも寄与している。そして重要なこととして、2016 年にゼロ近傍まで低下したことは心配ではあるが、2013〜15 年の消費者物価指数(コアコアベース、消費税率変更の影響は除く)の上昇率が+0.5〜+0.7%となったように、長期にわたるデフレ終息の兆しもみえてきている。Hausman and Wieland [2014]によるアベノミクスと日本銀行の金融政策の当初の評価は、費用対効果が高いというものであったが、3 年経ってもその評価は維持されていると思われる。』
ということですが、これ「2016 年にゼロ近傍まで低下したことは心配ではあるが」って簡単にスルーしているけれども、消費増税前の財政ドライブとか久々の消費増税に伴う駆け込み需要とその便乗とか、米国の金融緩和サイクルの終了と米国経済の拡大とか、そういう外部要因というか神風部分をどう見ても過小評価してるだろうとしか思えないんですよね(まあ「Hausman and Wieland」とか読んでないからどの程度その辺が加味されているのか知らんけど高評価している時点でまあお察しでしょう)。
