テキストで落ちているのは最初の所ですな。 [外部リンク] 27, 2018 Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress Chairman Jerome H. Powell Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, D.C.
[外部リンク] 27, 2018 Monetary Policy and the Economy Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell appeared before the House Financial Services Committee to deliver the semiannual monetary policy report.
あと議会証言と関係ないですが、いまだとFEDのトップページにパウエルさんの自己紹介(というか何というか)の音声もあって、その内容に関しては [外部リンク] Hensarling, Ranking Member Waters, and members of the Committee, I am pleased to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.』
これはご挨拶。
『On the occasion of my first appearance before this Committee as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, I want to express my appreciation for my predecessor, Chair Janet Yellen, and her important contributions. During her term as Chair, the economy continued to strengthen and Federal Reserve policymakers began to normalize both the level of interest rates and the size of the balance sheet. Together, Chair Yellen and I have worked to ensure a smooth leadership transition and provide for continuity in monetary policy. I also want to express my appreciation for my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Finally, I want to affirm my continued support for the objectives assigned to us by the Congress--maximum employment and price stability--and for transparency about the Federal Reserve's policies and programs. Transparency is the foundation for our accountability, and I am committed to clearly explaining what we are doing and why we are doing it. Today I will briefly discuss the current economic situation and outlook before turning to monetary policy.』
まあこれもご挨拶だが「normalize both the level of interest rates and the size of the balance sheet」って思いっきり正常化モードですよという話をするのね、とは思った。
・経済物価情勢に関しては順当ではあるが盛大に威勢が良い
『Current Economic Situation and Outlook』という小見出しが来まして・・・・・・・・
『 The U.S. economy grew at a solid pace over the second half of 2017 and into this year. Monthly job gains averaged 179,000 from July through December, and payrolls rose an additional 200,000 in January. This pace of job growth was sufficient to push the unemployment rate down to 4.1 percent, about 3/4 percentage point lower than a year earlier and the lowest level since December 2000.』
雇用がこんなに増えてますよウハハハハハということですな。
『In addition, the labor force participation rate remained roughly unchanged, on net, as it has for the past several years--that is a sign of job market strength, given that retiring baby boomers are putting downward pressure on the participation rate. Strong job gains in recent years have led to widespread reductions in unemployment across the income spectrum and for all major demographic groups. For example, the unemployment rate for adults without a high school education has fallen from about 15 percent in 2009 to 5-1/2 percent in January of this year, while the jobless rate for those with a college degree has moved down from 5 percent to 2 percent over the same period. In addition, unemployment rates for African Americans and Hispanics are now at or below rates seen before the recession, although they are still significantly above the rate for whites.』
『Wages have continued to grow moderately, with a modest acceleration in some measures, although the extent of the pickup likely has been damped in part by the weak pace of productivity growth in recent years.』
『Turning from the labor market to production, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of about 3 percent in the second half of 2017, 1 percentage point faster than its pace in the first half of the year.』
生産の伸びは加速。
『Economic growth in the second half was led by solid gains in consumer spending, supported by rising household incomes and wealth, and upbeat sentiment. In addition, growth in business investment stepped up sharply last year, which should support higher productivity growth in time.』
『The housing market has continued to improve slowly. Economic activity abroad also has been solid in recent quarters, and the associated strengthening in the demand for U.S. exports has provided considerable support to our manufacturing industry.』
『Against this backdrop of solid growth and a strong labor market, inflation has been low and stable.』
てな環境の中だけど物価は低めに安定。
『In fact, inflation has continued to run below the 2 percent rate that the FOMC judges to be most consistent over the longer run with our congressional mandate. Overall consumer prices, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), increased 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in December, about the same as in 2016. The core PCE price index, which excludes the prices of energy and food items and is a better indicator of future inflation, rose 1.5 percent over the same period, somewhat less than in the previous year.』
『We continue to view some of the shortfall in inflation last year as likely reflecting transitory influences that we do not expect will repeat; consistent with this view, the monthly readings were a little higher toward the end of the year than in earlier months.』
『After easing substantially during 2017, financial conditions in the United States have reversed some of that easing.』
昨年は金融環境が顕著に緩和的でしたが最近は若干その緩和度合いが弱まりました。
『At this point, we do not see these developments as weighing heavily on the outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation.』
とは言いましてもそれによって経済物価情勢におおきな悪影響があるとはあんまり思いません。
『Indeed, the economic outlook remains strong. The robust job market should continue to support growth in household incomes and consumer spending, solid economic growth among our trading partners should lead to further gains in U.S. exports, and upbeat business sentiment and strong sales growth will likely continue to boost business investment.』
『 Moreover, fiscal policy is becoming more stimulative.』
更に財政政策がより景気刺激的に作用するようになっています。
『In this environment, we anticipate that inflation on a 12-month basis will move up this year and stabilize around the FOMC's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Wages should increase at a faster pace as well. The Committee views the near-term risks to the economic outlook as roughly balanced but will continue to monitor inflation developments closely.』
『I will now turn to monetary policy. The Congress has assigned us the goals of promoting maximum employment and stable prices.』
これはご挨拶。
『Over the second half of 2017, the FOMC continued to gradually reduce monetary policy accommodation. Specifically, we raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at our December meeting, bringing the target to a range of 1-1/4 to 1-1/2 percent. In addition, in October we initiated a balance sheet normalization program to gradually reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings. That program has been proceeding smoothly.』
『These interest rate and balance sheet actions reflect the Committee's view that gradually reducing monetary policy accommodation will sustain a strong labor market while fostering a return of inflation to 2 percent.』
これは今までやっていたことの話でそちらは順調に推移中とな。
『In gauging the appropriate path for monetary policy over the next few years, the FOMC will continue to strike a balance between avoiding an overheated economy and bringing PCE price inflation to 2 percent on a sustained basis.』
今後の政策運営は、というところだが政策運営を「strike a balance between avoiding an overheated economy and bringing PCE price inflation to 2 percent on a sustained basis」としていて、後半の2%への達成がというのは良いとして、「avoiding an overheated economy」とはこれまた大きく出たなという感じですが、これはもしかしたら「景気が順調に推移しているのに財政出してオーバーヒートさせるんじゃねえこのバカチンが」というホワイトハウスに向けた悪態成分が混じっているのではないでしょうか(個人の感想です^^)。
『While many factors shape the economic outlook, some of the headwinds the U.S. economy faced in previous years have turned into tailwinds: In particular, fiscal policy has become more stimulative and foreign demand for U.S. exports is on a firmer trajectory.』
『Despite the recent volatility, financial conditions remain accommodative.』
直近のVIX騒動に関しては特段問題はないということで。
『At the same time, inflation remains below our 2 percent longer-run objective. In the FOMC's view, further gradual increases in the federal funds rate will best promote attainment of both of our objectives. As always, the path of monetary policy will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.』
『In evaluating the stance of monetary policy, the FOMC routinely consults monetary policy rules that connect prescriptions for the policy rate with variables associated with our mandated objectives.』
ほほう。
『Personally, I find these rule prescriptions helpful. Careful judgments are required about the measurement of the variables used, as well as about the implications of the many issues these rules do not take into account. I would like to note that this Monetary Policy Report provides further discussion of monetary policy rules and their role in the Federal Reserve's policy process, extending the analysis we introduced in July.』
[外部リンク] on “A Skeptical View of the Impact of the Fed’s Balance Sheet” February 23, 2018 William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer Remarks at the 2018 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York City As prepared for delivery
『Let me start with my main point: Although I agree with many of the authors’ findings in this year’s paper, I would take a much less skeptical view of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet as a tool of monetary policy.』
お題の方にありましたように、こちらは「2018 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York City」での講演で、今回はFEDのバランスシートの効果についてそんなにストック効果あるんですかみたいなのがホイホイと出てきている、という事なんでしょうね。
『While additional study of the effects of large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs should be encouraged-as it furthers our understanding of the use of these unconventional monetary policy tools-the paper’s findings do not, in my mind, invalidate the use of LSAPs when the Federal Reserve is operating at or close to the zero lower bound for short-term interest rates. That is the key issue-not the magnitude of the effects of LSAPs or whether short-term interest rates should be the primary tool of monetary policy.』
『On the latter point, which is consistent with the FOMC’s statements about policy normalization, I see broad agreement.』
『Concluding that LSAPs are less powerful than suggested by some of the estimates from the event study literature does not imply that there is no role for LSAPs at the zero lower bound.』
『In such circumstances, LSAPs can be used to provide additional monetary accommodation by depressing bond term premia and the spread between agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and Treasury securities, as well as by strengthening the credibility of forward guidance on the path of short-term interest rates. This can provide support to asset values more generally and make financial conditions more accommodative. Thus, discarding such a tool or ruling out its use seems counterproductive for two reasons.』
『First, to the extent that such a tool can provide accommodation, ruling out its use would raise the risks of insufficient monetary policy accommodation when interest rates are pinned at the zero lower bound.』
『Second, expectations matter. If households and businesses believe that the Fed has run out of tools to provide monetary policy accommodation or is unwilling to use certain tools for that purpose, the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored to the downside would increase, which would make it even more difficult for the central bank to achieve its goals.』
『For these reasons, LSAPs should be viewed as a viable tool in our arsenal to be used when the zero lower bound is a relevant policy concern.』
つーことでLSAPはゼロ金利制約化の武器として使えますと。
『In terms of calibration, if LSAPs are not as powerful as some of the event studies imply, the answer is not to simply discard the tool, but instead to look for ways to enhance its efficacy and use it more aggressively.』
『In this respect, I believe that LSAPs work best when they are open-ended. In such circumstances, the use of the tool is likely to be helpful in reducing tail risks and making the bad states of the world less likely rather than signaling to market participants a significant deterioration in the Federal Reserve’s outlook.』
『LSAPs may also be a useful means of making forward guidance more credible. If the monetary authority were to commit to a program of asset purchases until some economic objective is reached and, at the same time, were to make it clear that the policy rate would not begin to rise until the asset purchase program were completed, these steps might help anchor expectations about the likely path of short-term rates more effectively.』
『The Federal Reserve’s third round of LSAPs, which was open-ended, was an important innovation of policy that the paper might have discussed in greater detail. 』
[外部リンク] on the FOMC’s Monetary Policy Framework 02.23.18 Loretta J. Mester Panel Remarks at the 2018 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, Sponsored by the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, New York, NY
そんなに長くないのでちょっと確認を。
『Recently, some economists and policymakers have recommended that the FOMC evaluate its monetary policy framework. Indeed, a careful reader of the January FOMC minutes, released earlier this week, might have noticed that a few participants suggested such an examination.2』
『The FOMC has not indicated whether or not it will undertake such a review. But let me provide my own thoughts on the rationale for undertaking an assessment, what it might cover, and the timing, that is, the why, what, and when of a review. I’ll also briefly discuss some alternative frameworks that should be part of the assessment. But first, some background.』
『The Fed’s longer-run monetary policy goals are price stability and maximum employment. Congress specified these goals but gave the Fed considerable independence in choosing the framework used to achieve these goals. The FOMC currently uses a flexible inflation-targeting framework.』
『This framework recognizes that, over the longer run, monetary policy can influence only inflation and not the underlying real structural aspects of the economy such as the natural rate of unemployment or maximum employment, but that monetary policy can be used to help offset shorter-run fluctuations in employment from maximum employment.』
まあ普通の前置き。
『The framework is briefly described in the FOMC’s statement on longer-run goals and monetary policy strategy.3 This statement was initially released in January 2012 when the FOMC adopted an explicit numerical inflation goal. This is a symmetric goal of 2 percent, as measured by the year-over-year change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, or PCE inflation. “Symmetric” means that the 2 percent inflation goal is not a ceiling. The inflation measures will vary from month to month, sometimes above and sometimes below 2 percent, but we aim to keep inflation at 2 percent on average over the longer run.』
まあ別に変った話ではない。
・何で見直すのか
次が『Why Review the Framework?』ということで。
『The flexible inflation-targeting framework has served the FOMC well and has been effective in promoting our monetary policy goals. So why review the framework?』
ここまでうまく機能しているのに何で見直すのか?というと・・・・・・
『There are a couple of reasons. First, as a matter of good governance, it behooves the Fed to conduct periodic reviews of its assumptions, methods, and models.』
経験によってレビューを行うのは大事なことですとの事で。
『This is the way the FOMC has operated for some time. For example, as indicated in the minutes, the January FOMC meeting included staff briefings and a discussion of inflation analysis and forecasting models.4 It is a standard best practice for a central bank to assess its performance.5』
『Another reason for the FOMC to review its framework derives from the experience of the Great Recession and its aftermath.』
ほうほうそれでそれで?
『To fight disinflationary pressures and economic contraction, the policy rate was brought to effectively zero, where it remained for seven years, and unconventional tools, including forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases, were used. Although the recovery was slow in coming, the economic expansion is now firmly in place, labor markets are strong, and inflation is expected to return to 2 percent on a sustained basis over the next couple of years. Nonetheless, the post-crisis economic environment is expected to differ in some important ways from the pre-crisis world.』
『The expected slowdown in population growth and labor force participation rates due to changes in demographics will weigh on long-run economic growth, the natural rate of unemployment, and the longer-term equilibrium interest rate.6,7』
『Real interest rates may potentially remain lower than in past decades. If so, then compared to the past, there would be less room for monetary policymakers to cushion against a negative economic shock, the probability of the policy rate hitting the zero lower bound would be higher, and nontraditional monetary policy tools would need to be used more often.』
『To the extent that these tools are less effective than the traditional interest rate tool or are constrained from being used, the potential would be for longer recessions and longer bouts of low inflation. This raises the legitimate question of whether any changes in our monetary policy framework would be helpful in maintaining macroeconomic stability in this environment.8』
『We cannot know whether the FOMC would have been even more successful had it used a different monetary policy framework in the times leading up to and following the financial crisis.』
そらそうよ。
『But that’s the wrong question.』
ほほう。
『The review should focus on evaluating whether changing the framework could make monetary policy even more effective given the current and future economic environment.』
で?
『I remain open-minded on this. At the same time, a change from flexible inflation targeting shouldn’t be decided cavalierly. There is little experience with alternative frameworks because the central banks of most advanced economies like the U.S. have used some form of inflation targeting.』
『In my view, the success of the current framework, coupled with the lack of empirical evidence on alternatives, means that the bar should be high for changing to a new framework. It is important to recognize that any framework will have positives and negatives and we are not starting from scratch, there is a framework in place, so transition costs need to be considered.』
『The FOMC has been on a journey over the past couple of decades to make our monetary policy more transparent to the public and Chairman Powell has emphasized that the FOMC will continue on this journey.9 When the public has a better understanding of the goals and rationale for monetary policy decisions, they are better able to hold policymakers accountable for their actions. But effective communication also makes monetary policy itself more effective by providing the public with information about the economic outlook and aligning the public’s expectations about future policy actions. Thus, an important aspect of any framework is how well it communicates monetary policy to businesses and households that are making economic decisions. If the framework is not well understood, its benefits cannot be captured.』
『Another important aspect of any monetary policy framework is its credibility.』
信頼性とは?
『Is the framework credible to the public so that they will formulate expectations about future policy based on the framework? Is it a framework that future Committees will stick with? Of course, one determinant of a framework’s credibility is its effectiveness in achieving monetary policy goals. So effectiveness, communication, and credibility, and the interactions among these three need to be part of assessing the framework』
まあそらそうよという話が続いていますな。
・レビューなのか見直しなのか微妙ですが年後半に行いたいと
『When Should a Review Commence?』から。
『After coming through the financial crisis and Great Recession, the economy has returned to normal and monetary policy, including the policy rate and the balance sheet, is normalizing. The smooth transition to new Fed leadership is also underway. Nothing is broken and a return to a normal economy and normal policymaking gives us an opportunity to look at some longer-run issues. This suggests to me that it may be appropriate later this year to begin an assessment of our current monetary policy framework and alternatives.』
『Such reviews take time and should be thorough. As I mentioned, the FOMC adopted its numerical inflation goal in January 2012, but this came after years of study and discussion going back to at least May 1996, with subsequent discussions in 2005, 2009, and 2011. Even if the FOMC concludes that it is best to stay with its current framework, the review will have served the Committee well and may indicate some ways we can further improve our monetary policy transparency and communication.』
別に今のままでよいという結論になったとしてもレビューは大事ですよ、だそうです。
・でもってどんな手段か?
『Some Alternative Frameworks』ってのが実質最後の所になります。
『I will end my remarks by briefly noting some alternative frameworks that could be assessed as part of a review. I will not have time to discuss their strengths and weaknesses at length, but I can give you a flavor.10 』
まずは『Higher Inflation Target』でインフレ目標の引き上げ。
『One alternative is to keep the flexible inflation-targeting framework but set a higher longer-run inflation target, say, 4 percent instead of 2 percent.11』
例えば2%→4%。
『This would be a familiar arrangement but give the nominal rate more of a cushion from hitting the zero lower bound for any given negative shock. But does the gain from more likely avoiding the zero lower bound when a negative shock hits outweigh the costs of running a higher level of inflation at all times? Will it be easy to raise inflation expectations after having successfully anchored them at 2 percent? Is 4 percent inflation seen as consistent with price stability? These questions will need to be answered.』
次が『Price-Level Targeting and Nominal GDP Targeting』で物価水準目標とか名目GDP目標。
『Price-level targeting and nominal GDP targeting involve targeting a path for the nominal level rather than a growth rate. Unlike inflation targeting, which lets bygones-be-bygones, these level-targeting frameworks make up for past deviations from the path.12』
『For example, when inflation has been running low, price-level targeting builds in a form of forward commitment to higher inflation in the future and a “low for longer” interest rate strategy. In theory, this can move current inflation expectations up, buoying current inflation and limiting the time the economy spends at the zero lower bound.13』
前年比ではなくて水準で見ていく、という意味で同じくくりにしているのね。
『There is little international experience with these frameworks and there are measurement issues to contend with: the starting point for the path matters, data revisions would be more serious because these frameworks do not let bygones-be-bygones, and to know what inflation will be along the nominal GDP path, one needs a reliable estimate of potential real output growth.14,15』
『There are also credibility issues. Is it credible that policymakers will keep interest rates low to make up for past shortfalls even when demand is growing strongly or that they will tighten policy when demand is weak after a supply shock has raised the price level?』
『Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has suggested a temporary price-level-targeting framework, which involves targeting inflation in normal times but switching to price-level targeting once the policy rate has fallen to the zero lower bound.16』
ゼロ金利になったら物価水準目標にしてフォワードコミットメントを強めるという方法。
『Policymakers would revert to inflation targeting and begin to raise interest rates once the cumulative inflation rate from the time the zero lower bound was hit had risen sustainably back to target. This framework might be easy to communicate because it could be discussed solely in terms of the inflation goal; however, determining and communicating the timing of when to switch back to the inflation-targeting regime could be complex.』
[外部リンク] of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 24-25 January 2018
ということで委員会における金融政策の検討部分となりますところの、
『2. Governing Council’s discussion and monetary policy decisions』の『Monetary policy stance and policy considerations』以下をインスタント読みします。前提条件を読みたければその前の部分を読まないといけませんが何せ寝起きインスタント読みなのでその辺は勘弁ということで。
・成長見通しは上がっているけど今の政策スタンスに何か手を加える必要は今の所ないとな
『With regard to the monetary policy stance, members widely shared the assessment provided by Mr Praet in his introduction. The strong cyclical momentum and the associated ongoing reduction of economic slack further strengthened the confidence that inflation would converge to the Governing Council’s inflation aim. At the same time, underlying price pressures remained muted overall and had yet to show convincing signs of a sustained upward trend.』
物価目標達成に向けた自信は深まりましたが一方で足元の物価上昇圧力は抑制されています。
『Overall, this assessment confirmed the continued need for an ample degree of monetary accommodation to ensure a sustained adjustment of inflation towards the Governing Council’s inflation aim. Accordingly, this suggested leaving the current policy configuration unchanged and reconfirming the decisions taken at the October 2017 monetary policy meeting.』
『There was broad agreement among members that the current monetary policy stance remained broadly appropriate. With regard to financial market conditions, equity prices had further increased in the inter-meeting period, while there had been an upward move in the expected path of short-term interest rates and a rise in long-term government bond yields, together with an appreciation of the euro.』
『It was noted that, while long-term yields had indeed increased somewhat overall, similar levels had already been observed in the course of last year.』
長期金利上昇したけど去年もこの水準に上昇したからヘーキヘーキ。
『Moreover, these increases were unlikely to translate immediately into more restrictive borrowing conditions for households and firms, as bank lending rates, in particular, responded only with some lag to tighter capital market conditions. 』
『Several factors contributing to the limited tightening in some measures of financial conditions were discussed.』
金融環境を限定的だがタイトニングさせるファクターについて、ってナンジャラホイと思いますと、
『While this could be seen as partly related to a further improvement in domestic fundamentals, spillovers from global financial conditions, as well as heightened sensitivity of financial markets to communication on exchange rates and monetary policy, also played a role.』
『In this context, the point was reiterated that the monetary policy stance tended to become mechanically more expansionary in an environment of improving macroeconomic conditions and an unchanged policy configuration, other things being equal.』
『The incoming information, while again more positive on euro area growth prospects, was seen as confirming the current policy posture, as the strong growth momentum was still accompanied by weak price pressures. 』
『Against this overall background, members widely agreed that, while there was reason to be increasingly confident about the path of inflation, patience and persistence with regard to monetary policy were still warranted for inflation to converge to the Governing Council’s inflation aim in a sustained manner.』
とまあそんな訳で状況を総合すると先行きの自信は高まっているけど金融政策は引き続きpatience and persistenceだそうで。
『This called for maintaining the current monetary policy stance, which related to the full set of policy instruments. It also implied reaffirming the monetary policy decisions taken at the monetary policy meeting in late October with respect to net asset purchases and reinvestments, as well as key policy interest rates, together with the Governing Council’s forward guidance pertaining to those measures, including the established embedded sequencing of policy instruments.』
『An ample degree of monetary stimulus was generally seen to be still needed to accompany the economic expansion and the corresponding build-up of price pressures in support of headline inflation developments over the medium term.』
経済の拡大と物価の上昇トレンドには金融緩和によるお注射がまだ必要です、ってさっきも出たけど。
『It was recalled that, while the relative importance of policy rate guidance and of the accumulated stock of assets for the overall stance of policy was increasing over time, the path of inflation still remained contingent on the continued stimulus provided by the full set of the ECB’s policy measures, including the net asset purchases.』
『In this context, a remark was made regarding possible implications of the current accommodative monetary policy stance for financial stability in specific market segments, such as high-yield corporate bonds and commercial real estate.』
前回の議事要旨では同じく委員会の検討部分における前半の「Economic and monetary analyses」の所にM&AとかLBOとかの動向に金融安定化に関する論点が見られるけどマクプルツールで対応ですな、というのがあった(最後のパラグラフ)のですが、前回はこのシリーズでの話は無かったですのでほほーという感じ。
でもって商業用不動産とハイイールド社債が焦げ臭いんですってよ奥様。
『It was, however, recalled that the evidence currently available suggested no significant side effects of the ECB’s monetary policy measures on financial stability on the whole and that, in any case, macroprudential policy tools were to be seen as the first line of defence in addressing potential financial stability risks.』
『As regards communication, agreement was generally expressed with the proposal made by Mr Praet in his introduction, suggesting broad continuity in the Governing Council’s communication at the present stage.』
政策に関する説明は前回同様でよろしかろうと。
『Members widely acknowledged the need for steadiness in communication, which entailed re-emphasising confidence in the inflation outlook, while maintaining a policy stance based on the broad spectrum of policy instruments in place and the established sequencing of policy instruments. In this context, it was remarked that communication on monetary policy would continue to develop according to the evolving state of the economy in line with the ECB’s forward guidance, with a view to avoiding abrupt or disorderly adjustments at a later stage.』
『However, changes in communication were generally seen to be premature at this juncture, as inflation developments remained subdued despite the robust pace of economic expansion. Therefore, the Governing Council reiterated its steadfast commitment to its price stability objective and, specifically, to delivering on its promise to secure a sustained return of inflation rates to levels below, but close to, 2%. It was emphasised that monetary policy had to remain patient and persistent, while prudence should be exercised with respect to the Governing Council’s communication.』
だが今それをやるのは早すぎるので今回は従来通りですよと。
・為替に対する懸念だがどう見ても米国向けイヤミです本当にありがとうございました
『There was broad agreement among members to convey the Governing Council’s concerns about the recent volatility in the euro exchange rate, which represented a source of uncertainty that had to be monitored with respect to its implications for the medium-term outlook for price stability.』
最近のユーロ市場のボラが・・・・・という話ですが、
『In this context, it was also seen as important to reaffirm the agreed G7 and G20 exchange rate language, which entailed the commitment to market-determined exchange rates and refraining from targeting them for competitive purposes.』
この落ちがG7やG20の共同合意が云々ということですのでどう見ても米国政権向けの悪態です。
・構造改革の必要性と財政規律に関してのお話
『Finally, the ongoing need for decisive reform efforts by euro area governments to strengthen the longer-term growth potential and to reduce vulnerabilities was reiterated. In this context, it was stressed that the strengthening of Economic and Monetary Union remained a priority. Hence, the ongoing discussions on completing the banking union and the capital markets union, and on further deepening Economic and Monetary Union, were highly welcome. 』
『A remark was also made on the increasingly widespread prospects of a loosening of the fiscal stance in a range of jurisdictions, including some with no or limited fiscal space. This warranted reiterating calls for respecting the existing fiscal rules and for rebuilding fiscal buffers, in particular in countries where government debt remained high.』
『Members broadly agreed that any further evolution of the Governing Council’s communication on monetary policy would be gradual and would proceed in line with improvements in the medium-term inflation outlook.』
今後改善した場合にどうしましょ。
『Communication would evolve naturally in line with the ECB’s forward guidance should inflation make further progress towards the Governing Council’s inflation aim as set out in the established criteria for a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation. The language pertaining to the monetary policy stance could be revisited early this year as part of the regular reassessment at the forthcoming monetary policy meetings.』
『In this context, some members expressed a preference for dropping the easing bias regarding the APP from the Governing Council’s communication as a tangible reflection of reinforced confidence in a sustained adjustment of the path of inflation. However, it was concluded that such an adjustment was premature and not yet justified by the stronger confidence. It was also recalled - as on previous occasions - that even when net purchases were terminated, the monetary policy stance would remain highly accommodative as the evolution of inflation would remain conditional on reinvestments continuing for an extended period of time and on policy rates remaining at their present levels well past the end of the ECB’s net asset purchases.』
最後の『Monetary policy decisions and communication』は決定事項です。要するに現状維持だが一応引用。
『Taking into account the foregoing discussion among the members, on a proposal from the President, the Governing Council decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility would remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council continued to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.』
MRO金利0%、預金ファシリティ▲0.40%、貸出ファシリティ0.20%、ガイダンス文言も不変。
『With regard to non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council confirmed that the net asset purchases, at the new monthly pace of ユーロ30 billion, were intended to run until the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council saw a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. If the outlook became less favourable, or if financial conditions became inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stood ready to increase the APP in terms of size and/or duration.』
『The Eurosystem would reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time after the end of its net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary.』
再投資についても同様で、資産買入が終わっても再投資は当面行うというのも同じなので、
『This would contribute both to favourable liquidity conditions and to an appropriate monetary policy stance.』
と言っているのも同じ、ということで何も変更しませんという結果になっていたのはご案内の通り。
『The members of the Governing Council subsequently finalised the draft introductory statement, which the President and the Vice-President would, as usual, deliver at the press conference following the end of the current Governing Council meeting.』
[外部リンク] in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations』 『Inflation Analysis and Forecasting』 『Staff Review of the Economic Situation』
という風につながっていまして、今回この『Inflation Analysis and Forecasting』という項目が入ってきたのがおーという感じなのですが、そこまで詳しくやっていると元々量が多くてインスタント読みがアレという中なので泣く泣くパスしますが、最初の所に、
『The staff presented three briefings on inflation analysis and forecasting. The presentations reviewed a number of commonly used structural and reduced-form models. These included structural models in which the rate of inflation is linked importantly to measures of resource slack and a measure of expected inflation relevant for wage and price setting--so-called Phillips curve specifications--as well as statistical models in which inflation is primarily determined by a time-varying inflation trend or longer-run inflation expectations.』
『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』のケツ、すなわち『Committee Policy Action』から逆にたどりながら斜め読みするのがアタクシ的サク読み方式でございますが、逆順に引用すると話の流れが変なことになるので引用はちゃんと順番に(^^)。
『In their consideration of monetary policy, participants discussed the implications of recent economic and financial developments for the outlook for economic growth, labor market conditions, and inflation and, in turn, for the appropriate path of the federal funds rate.』
ほうほうそれでそれで?
『Participants agreed that a gradual approach to raising the target range for the federal funds rate remained appropriate and reaffirmed that adjustments to the policy path would depend on their assessments of how the economic outlook and risks to the outlook were evolving relative to the Committee's policy objectives.』
それは言われんでもわかっとるわ。
『While participants continued to expect economic activity to expand at a moderate pace over the medium term, they anticipated that the rate of economic growth in 2018 would exceed their estimates of its sustainable longer-run pace and that labor market conditions would strengthen further.』
今年は潜在成長率を少々上回る成長で推移するじゃろと。
『A number of participants indicated that they had marked up their forecasts for economic growth in the near term relative to those made for the December meeting in light of the strength of recent data on economic activity in the United States and abroad, continued accommodative financial conditions, and information suggesting that the effects of recently enacted tax changes--while still uncertain--might be somewhat larger in the near term than previously thought.』
何人か(A number of)の参加者は最近の経済状況に加えて税制改革の影響を勘案して見通しを引き上げました。
『Several others suggested that the upside risks to the near-term outlook for economic activity may have increased.』
『A majority of participants noted that a stronger outlook for economic growth raised the likelihood that further gradual policy firming would be appropriate.』
多数の参加者(A majority of participants)はより強い経済見通しは徐々にだけど更に利上げすることが適切であるとノートしました、とまあキタコレではありますが、声明文でもそういうニュアンスあったよね、というのは後で出てきます。
次のパラグラフ。
『Almost all participants continued to anticipate that inflation would move up to the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term as economic growth remained above trend and the labor market stayed strong; several commented that recent developments had increased their confidence in the outlook for further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective. A couple noted that a step-up in the pace of economic growth could tighten labor market conditions even more than they currently anticipated, posing risks to inflation and financial stability associated with substantially overshooting full employment.』
『However, some participants saw an appreciable risk that inflation would continue to fall short of the Committee's objective. These participants saw little solid evidence that the strength of economic activity and the labor market was showing through to significant wage or inflation pressures. They judged that the Committee could afford to be patient in deciding whether to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in order to support further strengthening of the labor market and allow participants to assess whether incoming information on inflation showed that it was solidly on a track toward the Committee's objective.』
『Some participants also commented on the likely evolution of the neutral federal funds rate.』
自然利子率の話が数名(Some)から。
『By most estimates, the neutral level of the federal funds rate had been very low in recent years, but it was expected to rise slowly over time toward its longer-run level.』
今は低いけど今後徐々に上がるでしょうというのが多くの推計でありまっせ。
『However, the outlook for the neutral rate was uncertain and would depend on the interplay of a number of forces. For example, the neutral rate, which appeared to have fallen sharply during the Global Financial Crisis when financial headwinds had restrained demand, might move up more than anticipated as the global economy strengthened. Alternatively, the longer-run level of the neutral rate might remain low in the absence of fundamental shifts in trends in productivity, demographics, or the demand for safe assets.』
『Members agreed that the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would depend on their assessments of realized and expected economic conditions relative to the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.』
これは声明文の中では「In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate」から始まる「今後の金利調整に関する考え方の部分」の検討になります。
『They reiterated that this assessment would take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. Members also agreed to carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to the Committee's symmetric inflation goal. Members expected that economic conditions would evolve in a manner that would warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate. They judged that a gradual approach to raising the target range would sustain the economic expansion and balance the risks to the outlook for inflation and unemployment.』
この辺は声明文にあったところですが・・・・・・・・・・
『Members agreed that the strengthening in the near-term economic outlook increased the likelihood that a gradual upward trajectory of the federal funds rate would be appropriate. They therefore agreed to update the characterization of their expectation for the evolution of the federal funds rate in the postmeeting statement to point to "further gradual increases" while maintaining the target range at the current meeting.』
『Members continued to anticipate that the federal funds rate would likely remain, for some time, below levels that were expected to prevail in the longer run. Nonetheless, they again stated that the actual path for the federal funds rate would depend on the economic outlook as informed by the incoming data.』
ほーと思ったがカーニーはんの講演は [外部リンク] on Leadership in a Disruptive Age Speech given by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England Regent’s University London Monday 19 February 2018
『22 The MPC sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. In pursuing that objective, the main challenges for the Committee had continued to be to assess the economic implications of the United Kingdom withdrawing from the European Union and to identify the appropriate policy response to that changing outlook, including to the substantial depreciation of sterling that had been associated with the decision.』
『During the negotiation period, those economic implications would be influenced significantly by the expectations of households, firms and financial markets about the United Kingdom’s eventual economic relationships with the European Union and other countries, and the transition to them.』
『 Since the Committee’s previous meeting, indicators of corporate and household confidence had not reacted significantly to the progress made in the first phase of the Article 50 negotiations.』
企業や家計のコンフィデンスは特にこのところ大きな変化はないと。
『23 In such exceptional circumstances, the MPC’s remit specified that the Committee must balance any tradeoff between the speed at which it intended to return inflation sustainably to the target and the support that monetary policy provided to jobs and activity.』
さっきと同じ話の国内版。
『Over the past year or so, a steady absorption of slack had reduced the degree to which it was appropriate for the MPC to accommodate an extended period of inflation above the target. Consequently, at its November 2017 meeting, the Committee had tightened modestly the stance of monetary policy in order to return inflation sustainably to the target. So far, the impact on interest rates faced by households and firms had appeared in line with past experience.』
『24 The Committee considered how the outlook had changed since its December meeting and the November Inflation Report projections. 』
11月から特に見通しに変化なし。
『25 The near-term outlook for the global economy had strengthened further and the projections incorporated in the February Inflation Report were consistent with growth in PPP-weighted world GDP of a little over 4% in 2018.』
世界経済は一段と強い成長へ。
『Notwithstanding recent volatility in financial markets, global financial conditions remained supportive.』
最近市場がボラ出てますが金融環境は特に問題ないですよ
『The degree to which the UK economy would benefit from that further broad-based strength in global demand was an important judgement, given continuing Brexit-related uncertainties. Since the referendum on EU membership, UK GDP growth had slowed to the bottom of the range of G7 economies, having previously been at the top, and a similar pattern was observable in business investment growth. That decoupling was also evident in asset prices. In particular, UK-focused equity prices had significantly underperformed their international counterparts, and the usual positive correlation between UK-focused and overseas equities appeared to have weakened.』
ブリクジットの影響で英国経済や金融市場は海外とデカップリングして動いていましたな、だそうです。
『Set against that, direct trade channels appeared to have remained unimpaired, and net trade appeared to have contributed strongly to GDP growth last year, although these data were volatile.』
貿易に関しては特に問題もなく振れはあるけど強いですよと。
『26 In the MPC’s central projections, UK net trade benefited from robust global demand and the past depreciation of sterling. Along with high rates of profitability, the low cost of capital and limited spare capacity, strong global activity was supporting business investment, although it remained restrained by Brexit-related uncertainties.』
貿易は好調で企業収益もよろしい。
『Household consumption growth was expected to remain relatively subdued, reflecting weak real income growth. 』
家計はネットの収入が弱い(物価が3%なんだから当たり前)ので相対的には弱め。
『27 In the February Report, GDP growth was expected to average around 1-3/4% per year over the forecast, a slightly faster pace than was projected in November despite the projections being conditioned on the higher market-implied path for interest rates and stronger exchange rate prevailing in financial markets at the time of the forecast. The preliminary estimate of GDP growth in 2017 Q4 had been stronger than expected, at 0.5%, and recent indicators suggested a slightly stronger near-term outlook for activity than in November.』
2月インフレレポートについて、成長見通しを上方修正しています。
『28 In preparing the February Report, the MPC had undertaken its scheduled annual assessment of aggregate supply side conditions. A range of evidence suggested that unemployment was close to its equilibrium rate, which was now estimated to be 4-1/4%, slightly lower than estimated a year ago. Within companies, there appeared to be some scope to increase output by raising the average number of hours worked by employees, but indicators suggested that there was little capacity for companies to work their other resources more intensively.』
『Overall, the Committee judged that only a very limited degree of spare capacity remained in the economy.』
『29 The outlook for growth in the economy’s supply capacity was modest. The MPC judged that, notwithstanding a projected rise, structural productivity growth would remain weak relative to pre-crisis norms.』
さっきのが供給サイドで、需要サイドは過去の金融危機前よりは弱いけど見通し通りに回復していると。
『Labour supply was also likely to rise more slowly than in recent years. These factors meant that the pace at which the economy could expand over the coming years without generating increased inflationary pressures was judged to be around 1-1/2% per annum, lower than pre-crisis norms. Given the slightly stronger demand growth projected in this Report, the remaining very limited degree of spare capacity was absorbed more quickly than in November. A small margin of excess demand was projected to emerge by early 2020 and to build thereafter.』
『30 CPI inflation had fallen from 3.1% in November to 3.0% in December, 0.3 percentage points higher than had been expected at the time of the November Inflation Report, in part reflecting higher oil prices. As set out in the accompanying open letter from the Governor to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, inflation was projected to fall back gradually as the effects of sterling’s past depreciation faded. In the near term, the recent rise in global oil prices meant that the projected fall in inflation was more gradual than anticipated at the time of the November Report.』
物価は上振れて推移中、今後下がるでしょうという見通しではありますが。
『31 Set against the waning influence of external price pressures, the outlook for inflation was underpinned by a continuing recovery in domestic cost pressures. Indicators of pay growth had risen recently, to a greater extent than expected at the time of the November Inflation Report. Annualised three month on three month growth in private sector regular average weekly earnings had been around 3% since the middle of 2017. A recent survey by the Bank’s Agents had shown that firms expected their average pay settlement to be half a percentage point higher in 2018 than in 2017. Recruitment difficulties had risen further. A further marked rise in annual earnings growth was likely in coming months as previous weak data dropped out of the calculation. The latest signs of a pickup in pay growth suggested that the tightness of the labour market would result in a rise in unit labour cost growth towards target-consistent rates.』
『On balance, CPI inflation was projected to remain above the 2% target in the second and third years of the MPC’s February central projection, despite those projections being conditioned on tighter monetary conditions than had been assumed in the November Report.』
2-3年のタームで2%に戻ってくるでしょうとの見通し。
『32 The Committee turned to the immediate policy decision.』
てなわけで政策決定。
『33 The outlook for growth and inflation was likely to require some ongoing withdrawal of monetary stimulus.』
のっけから今後の緩和縮小が必要とか来てます。
『Since November, the prospect of a greater degree of excess demand over the forecast period and the expectation that inflation would remain above the target had further diminished the trade-off that the MPC was required to balance. It was therefore appropriate to set monetary policy so that inflation returned sustainably to its target at a more conventional horizon.』
つーことで物価と経済のバランス見ながら政策運営しまっせと。
『34 There were risks in both directions around the inflation outlook. On the upside, momentum in global growth might persist for longer and the boost to UK demand from global factors could prove greater than anticipated. Global inflationary pressures had also shown signs of building. The tightness of the domestic labour market could result in faster wage and unit labour cost growth. The predicted pickup in productivity growth was not assured. 』
『35 On the downside, some business survey indicators of output had weakened. Recent housing and retail sales data had softened and, more generally, consumers might still respond to the past squeeze in real incomes to a greater degree than anticipated. And UK net trade could benefit by less from the pickup in global demand than had been the case recently. There was a possibility that the contribution of imported inflation pressures would diminish more rapidly than in the central projection.』
物価に関しては上下のリスク。
『36 In light of these considerations, all members thought that the current policy stance remained appropriate to balance the demands of the MPC’s remit.』
で結果は現状維持。
『The Committee also judged that, were the economy to evolve broadly in line with the February Inflation Report projections, monetary policy would need to be tightened somewhat earlier and by a somewhat greater degree over the forecast period than anticipated at the time of the November Report, in order to return inflation sustainably to the target.』
『37 All members agreed that any future increases in Bank Rate were expected to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent. The Committee would monitor closely the incoming evidence on the evolving economic outlook, and stood ready to respond to developments as they unfolded to ensure a sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target.』
『財務省や日本銀行など政策当局にとっても流動性の高い市場を維持する重要性は高い。近年の財政赤字に伴う国債残高増に鑑みると、流動性の高い市場を維持することは急激な金利上昇の抑制に寄与し、調達コストを低下させる。2013年4月以降、日銀が量的・質的金融緩和(Quantitative and Qualitative Easing:QQE)を導入したことに伴い、国際通貨基金(IMF)などから市場流動性の低下への懸念が指摘されており、金融政策とも密接な関係を有する。』
さいですな。
『本稿では、第2節でマサチューセッツ工科大学のJiang Wang教授とロンドン・スクール・オブ・エコノミクスのDimitri Vayanos教授によるサーベイ(Vayanos and Wang, 2012)をベースに流動性の定義を整理する。第3節では債券特有の流動性指標の説明を行い、続く第4節で特に国債市場を中心に我が国債券市場の話題を紹介する。』
『国債市場の流動性を考えるうえで、国債先物市場の存在は非常に重要である。国債先物は取引所取引であり、2017年時点で1日平均3兆円弱の取引量があるなど、最も流動性が高い市場と考えられる。国債先物はその設計上、将来特定の国債と交換されるため、現物国債と密接な関係をもつ。特に、現在取引がなされている長期国債先物は、残存7年以上11年未満の国債と交換できる制度となっており、事実上、先物は残存年数7年の国債(最割安銘柄:Cheapest To Deliver)とリンクしている*19。そのため、国債市場の中でも特に7年ゾーンに売買が集中し、現物との裁定取引を通じてタームストラクチャ全体に影響を与えることが知られている*20。』
『例えば、Iwatsubo and Taishi(2017)は、買い入れ頻度を増やし1回あたりの買い入れ額を減らすなどの対応が一定程度流動性の改善に寄与しているとの報告をしている。また、Pelizzon et al.(2017)は、日本国債のマイクロレベルのデータを用いて、QQEが現物国債の流動性に与えるインパクトを推定しており、日銀が国債を買い占める効果(scarcity effect)は流動性に対してマイナスに寄与する一方、ある銘柄が日銀の購入ターゲットとなることの効果(spotlight effect)はその銘柄の流動性に対してプラスに寄与するとの結果を得ている。黒崎等(2015)は国債市場について多数の流動性指標を用いて多面的な分析を行っており、板の厚みなどの観点では流動性低下がみられるものの、ビッド・アスク・スプレッドなど伝統的な指標については、2014年10月の量的・質的金融緩和の拡大以降も、目立って流動性は低下していないとの報告を行っている。そのほかにも、Tsuchida et al.(2016)は日本国債先物のイントラデイデータを用いて、金融政策決定会合や経済指標の公表が市場流動性を概ね低下させることを示したほか、衣笠・長野(2017)は国債市場の需給タイト化を背景に、担保となる国債銘柄の賃貸料(SCレポレート)が上昇する現象(いわゆる国債の希少性)について分析を行っている。』
『The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 7 February 2018, the MPC voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%. The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at ポンド10 billion. The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at ポンド435 billion.』
最初にあるのは政策自体は現状維持という話で以下本論が始まる。
・経済見通しがやたら強い
『The MPC’s latest projections for output and inflation are set out in detail in the accompanying February Inflation Report.』
2月はインフレーションレポートの月なのですがそちらはちとパスということで(見てる暇が・・・・・)。
『The global economy is growing at its fastest pace in seven years.』
海外経済の話がのっけからやたら強い表現。
『The expansion is becoming increasingly broad-based and investment driven.』
『UK net trade is benefiting from robust global demand and the past depreciation of sterling. Along with high rates of profitability, the low cost of capital and limited spare capacity, strong global activity is supporting business investment, although it remains restrained by Brexit-related uncertainties.』
『Household consumption growth is expected to remain relatively subdued, reflecting weak real income growth.』
そら英国物価3%台で推移してますもんね。
『GDP growth is expected to average around 1-3/4% over the forecast, a slightly faster pace than was projected in November despite the updated projections being conditioned on the higher market-implied path for interest rates and stronger exchange rate prevailing in financial markets at the time of the forecast.』
『CPI inflation fell from 3.1% in November to 3.0% in December. Inflation is expected to remain around 3% in the short term, reflecting recent higher oil prices.』
3%ですか。
『More generally, sustained above-target inflation remains almost entirely due to the effects of higher import prices following sterling’s past depreciation. These external forces slowly dissipate over the forecast, while domestic inflationary pressures are expected to rise.』
『The firming of shorter-term measures of wage growth in recent quarters, and a range of survey indicators that suggests pay growth will rise further in response to the tightening labour market, give increasing confidence that growth in wages and unit labour costs will pick up to target-consistent rates.』
ここもと賃金もあがってきており、労働市場のタイト化も進んでいるので物価上昇圧力になるそうな。
『On balance, CPI inflation is projected to fall back gradually over the forecast but remain above the 2% target in the second and third years of the MPC’s central projection.』
『As in previous Reports, the MPC’s projections are conditioned on the average of a range of possible outcomes for the United Kingdom’s eventual trading relationship with the European Union. The projections also assume that, in the interim, households and companies base their decisions on the expectation of a smooth adjustment to that new trading relationship. Developments regarding the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union - and in particular the reaction of households, businesses and asset prices to them - remain the most significant influence on, and source of uncertainty about, the economic outlook.』
先行き見通しに影響を与える要因はこの辺ですというお話ですな。
『In such exceptional circumstances, the MPC’s remit specifies that the Committee must balance any trade-off between the speed at which it intends to return inflation sustainably to the target and the support that monetary policy provides to jobs and activity.』
色々な要因を見ながら政策調整していきますという一般的な言い方。
『Over the past year, a steady absorption of slack has reduced the degree to which it was appropriate for the MPC to accommodate an extended period of inflation above the target. Consequently, at its November 2017 meeting, the Committee tightened modestly the stance of monetary policy in order to return inflation sustainably to the target.』
『Since November, the prospect of a greater degree of excess demand over the forecast period and the expectation that inflation would remain above the target have further diminished the trade-off that the MPC is required to balance.』
『It is therefore appropriate to set monetary policy so that inflation returns sustainably to its target at a more conventional horizon. The Committee judges that, were the economy to evolve broadly in line with the February Inflation Report projections, monetary policy would need to be tightened somewhat earlier and by a somewhat greater extent over the forecast period than anticipated at the time of the November Report, in order to return inflation sustainably to the target.』
『In light of these considerations, all members thought that the current policy stance remained appropriate to balance the demands of the MPC’s remit. Any future increases in Bank Rate are expected to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent. The Committee will monitor closely the incoming evidence on the evolving economic outlook, and stands ready to respond to developments as they unfold to ensure a sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target.』
『Stock indexes, such as the S&P 500, are calculated using the prices of their component stocks. Each index employs rules that govern the selection of component securities and a formula to calculate index values.』
ここはSP500とかの株価インデックスはどう計算するかという話。
『The VIX Index is a volatility index comprised of options rather than stocks, with the price of each option reflecting the market’s expectation of future volatility.』
ということなのですが、まあそもそも論としてオプションのプライシングは確かに「reflecting the market’s expectation of future volatility」ということではあるかも知れませんが、オプションといえども一つのコモディティではありますので、市場の純粋期待だけで動くわけではなく、時にコモディティとしてお家の事情で何でもいいから買うとか売るとかしないといけないケースが発生するわけですな。
『Like conventional indexes, the VIX calculation employs rules for selecting component options and a formula to calculate index values. The generalized formula used in the VIX calculation is:』
『Let me start with an issue that is on everybody’s mind: what’s going on in financial markets?』
キタコレ。
『The past week or so has been a roller coaster ride of ups and downs in the stock market, with a sudden increase in volatility. Longer-term bond rates have also moved up. It’s helpful to put this into perspective.』
そのパーステプティブとは?
『Equity markets had generally been on a sizable upswing over the past year, with the S&P 500 index up 19 percent in 2017, amidst extremely low volatility. While some commentators thought that the low level of interest rates and high earnings prospects supported high stock market valuations, others thought that equity prices had begun to outpace earnings, that bond yields were too low given the economic outlook, and that a correction was waiting to happen, it was just a matter of time.』
という後付け講釈がありますが・・・・・・・・
『Of course, it is investors, not commentators, who determine prices and yields.』
中々かっこいい言い方しますな。
『Even with the recent movements, as of Friday, the S&P 500 index is still significantly higher than it was a year ago. Bond yields are at levels seen at the start of 2014.』
ほうほうそれでそれで?
『Whenever there are such big swings in the market, we need to assess their implications.』
今回の値動きの示唆するところは?
『In the near term, we look at whether the market swing is accompanied by disorderly trading, a lack of liquidity, or contagion to other markets. We have not seen this: trading has been relatively orderly, markets have remained generally liquid, and there hasn’t been a pullback in credit. We also assess whether there are spillovers to the broader economy that could affect the medium-run economic outlook.』
『While a deeper and more persistent drop in equity markets could dash confidence and lead to a pullback in risk-taking and spending, the movements we have seen are far away from this scenario. I’ll continue to monitor financial market developments closely, but for now, I expect the economy will work through this episode of market turbulence and I have not changed my outlook. In my view, the underlying fundamentals supporting the economy are very sound.』
財政の影響という『Fiscal Policy』の小見出しの前が経済の話で物価の部分になるのですが、その最後(ここの直前)に、『 I’ll also need to continue to evaluate the effects of the recent changes in tax policy. So let me discuss fiscal policy before I turn to monetary policy.』と締めていますのでまあ見通しのポイントに挙げているという感じでしょうな。
『I expect that the tax changes will increase spending and raise economic growth over the next couple of years. At this point, it is difficult to be precise about the magnitude of the effect of the fiscal stimulus from the tax changes; as I mentioned, I’m estimating an additional 1/4 to 1/2 percentage point of annual growth this year and next year, but there is some upside risk that the effects could be larger.』
『The impact on individual households will depend on the level and sources of their income, but in the aggregate, I expect lower personal tax rates and higher standard deductions to spur some additional household spending. On the corporate side, lower tax rates and full expensing for investment in equipment and intangibles should spur additional business spending to meet higher near-term demand, but how much remains to be seen. Except for firms in the tax consulting business, the majority of our business contacts have told us that while they welcome lower tax rates, they aren’t planning to make significant changes to their capital or hiring plans as a result of the change in taxes. Instead, those firms planning to increase spending and hiring say those increases are driven by brighter sales prospects and stronger demand.』
『At the same time, some businesses attributed the firm-wide bonuses they paid to workers at the end of the year to the tax cuts, and others have taken the occasion to implement wage increases they had contemplated for some time. Firms might also be expected to spend some of their tax savings on increased dividends and share buybacks. I expect to have a better read on how households and firms are actually responding to the tax changes over the next several months.』
『A stronger outlook for business spending and hiring is a welcome development because investment and labor force growth are key determinants of productivity growth and productivity growth is a key determinant of an economy’s longer-run output growth and of living standards.』
そんな訳で雇用も増えて米国経済ウハウハですよという見通しのようでして、
『The U.S. economy has been struggling with very low productivity growth during this expansion, on the order of only 1 percent.3 This is less than half the pace over the prior two expansions, and partially explains why wage growth has been relatively sluggish despite the tightness in labor markets. In addition, as a result of lower population growth and labor force participation, the growth of the U.S. labor force has slowed considerably, from 2.5 percent per year, on average, in the 1970s, to around 0.5 percent per year over 2010-2016. It is expected to remain near that level over the next decade.4』
『I expect some increase in productivity growth as the expansion continues. It is possible that the tax changes could spur higher labor force participation and investment in physical and human capital, thereby having a positive effect on the economy’s productive capacity, its productivity growth, and its trend growth rate. But these effects from the tax changes are even more difficult to estimate than the effects on near-term spending, and they would play out over a longer period of time. So I have not incorporated them into my own projection for longer-run growth, which I put at 2 percent.』
この雇用改善によって今中々上がらなくて困っている労働生産性が伸びてくることを期待する、という評価。
『Another aspect of fiscal policy that needs to be considered is its effect on the longer-run budget deficit. Before the tax package and recently passed federal budget deal, projected longer-run fiscal imbalances were unlikely to be sustainable.5 Were the trend growth rate not to pick up, lower tax revenues and higher federal spending would add to the deficit relative to GDP, making it even more likely that the government would eventually need to respond with some combination of increased borrowing, reduced or restructured benefits, and increased taxes, thereby reducing any long-run positive effects of the recent changes in fiscal policy. We will need to continue to evaluate the responses to tax changes not only as the year progresses but into the future.』
財政悪化に関する話をしておりますが、別に楽観も悲観もしてなくて「We will need to continue to evaluate the responses to tax changes not only as the year progresses but into the future.」で締めています。
・利上げは穏当に年3回だがあと2年はやるとな
最後が『Monetary Policy』ですが、
『This brings me to monetary policy. At its January meeting, the FOMC maintained the target range for the fed funds rate at 1-1/4 to 1-1/2 percent. This range was set in December, which saw the fifth increase in rates since December 2015, when the FOMC began removing some of the extraordinary monetary policy accommodation that was necessary in the wake of the financial crisis and Great Recession.』
『In January, the FOMC also continued to implement its plan to normalize its balance sheet in terms of the size and composition of assets.6 To address the Great Recession and put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates once the fed funds rate had hit effectively zero, the Fed undertook several programs to purchase longer-term assets, including longer-maturity Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). As a result of the purchases, the Fed’s balance sheet grew, from nearly $900 billion in assets in 2007, or 6 percent of nominal GDP, to about $4.5 trillion today, or 23 percent of nominal GDP. The composition changed from mainly short-term Treasuries to longer-maturity Treasuries and agency MBS. The normalization plan, which began last October and will take several years to complete, involves letting maturing Treasuries and principal payments of agency MBS and agency debt to gradually roll off the balance sheet up to a monthly cap, with the caps rising over time.』
『The gradual, predictable decline in assets allows balance-sheet normalization to run in the background and monetary policy to focus on setting the appropriate level of the fed funds rate, our conventional monetary policy tool. The ultimate size of the balance sheet will depend on how the FOMC decides to implement monetary policy in the future, a decision that has not yet been made.7』
この辺はただの今までの説明とこの前出したバランスシート縮小プラン最新版の説明。
『I supported implementing the balance-sheet normalization plan and the December and January decisions on interest rates. If the economy evolves as I anticipate, I believe further increases in interest rates will be appropriate this year and next year, at a pace similar to last year’s.』
今年と来年に年3回上げるのが妥当だそうな。
『I believe this gradual upward path of interest rates will help balance the risks and prolong the expansion so that our longer-run goals of price stability and maximum employment are met and maintained. This policy path gives inflation time to move back to goal while, at the same time, avoiding a build-up of risks to macroeconomic stability that could arise if the economy is allowed to overheat, with the Fed then having to raise rates sharply in response. It helps avoid a build-up of risks to financial stability should overly low interest rates encourage investors to take on excessively risky investments in a search for yield. And it puts monetary policy in a better position to address whatever risks, whether to the upside or to the downside, are ultimately realized.』
「avoiding a build-up of risks to macroeconomic stability」と言っている辺りがややきな臭いのですけれども・・・・・・
『Of course, this is my current view of monetary policy. We will need to calibrate our policy decisions to how the economy actually evolves and the implications of incoming information for the medium-run outlook and risks around the outlook. If the upside risks to growth come to pass, we may need to steepen the path a bit; if inflation surprises on the downside, we may need to go a bit slower. But this is normal monetary-policy-setting behavior ? we will calibrate our policy based on the outlook and the realized and expected progress on our dual-mandate monetary policy goals.』
