『MARTY CRUTSINGER. Marty Crutsinger with the Associated Press. You talked about the fact that the Summary of Economic Projections is based on the outlook of all the members of the FOMC. Can you tell us anything, though, about the staff forecast and how that was impacted by the, we had a one and a half trillion dollar tax cut? We've had $300 billion in increased government spending. The staff forecast that you're working with, are those reflected, how were they impacted by that? And, how did that impact the discussions? 』
財政支出の影響で上方修正と言ってる割にSEPの見通しが上がっていませんがという質問に対して、
『CHAIRIMAN POWELL. We look at the staff forecasts and the Board forecasts, and by the way, they're 12 excellent Reserve Bank staffs who have their own views and do their own work. We look at those as informing the decisions of the policy makers. So, and it's really the policy makers' views that we talk about in the SEP. We don't, we don't, you know, talk about the staff forecast. It's a particular thing under, done under particular rules and circumstances, and really, it's the policy makers that, then, take that as input and create their forecasts which are what drives policy. 』
『MARTY CRUTSINGER. That had no impact, though? Such a, that's a major increase in government stimulus that you're, that had to had an impact on the discussions, I would think, though. 』
『CHAIRMAN POWELL. Well, the, you're right. So, fiscal stimulus is a, you know, a meaningful input into, you know, into the SEP and particularly in the changes over the course of last year and this year. And, individual policy makers went through with their staffs, a range of estimates, a range of literature, and did their own thinking and came up with their own estimates and submitted those as their Summary of Economic Projections, as their projections. Those are not the staff's projections. Those are our projections. 』
『JONATHAN SPICER. Chairman Powell, Jonathan Spicer with Reuters. I take your caveats on the dot plot as it were, but I'll ask another question. In 2020, it shows the policy makers expect the policy rate to get up almost to three and a half percent which is quite a ways or definitively anyways above the neutral rate. Does that increase the risk of a Fed-induced recession and decrease the risk of a soft landing? Which is asking in a way about the fiscal policy, and as a follow up, is that fiscal stimulus starting to lead to questions within the fed around this narrative of secular stagnation and the economy entering a new, sort of, low rates environment? Thanks. 』
『CHAIRMAN POWELL. You know, I would say that--remember that forecasts three years out--so, you're right, 2020 there's a, I think, 3.4 percent is the median of the SEP dots for 2020, which is 40 basis points above the estimates of the neutral rate, which I would characterize as, you know, modestly restrictive, modestly tightening policy, but that's three years in the future.』
中立金利よりも高いという見込みなのは仰せの通りだそうな。
『It's highly uncertain. You know, we don't have the ability to see that far into the future, so I really wouldn't put a lot in that. It could make sense. You could imagine narratives in which that would make sense, but I, honestly, I wouldn't put too much on that. Sorry, your second question was? 』
『CHAIRMAN POWELL. You know, we've been through many years of growth around 2 percent, and I've given a number of public remarks where I've called on, you know, the country to focus more on potential growth and productivity and labor force participation, which drive potential growth. So, you know, I think it's really important that we do something, do what we can as a country to increase our potential growth rate.』
『I would say in the bill that passed Congress, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, there were elements that should encourage productivity, as I mentioned--sorry, encourage investment, which should help productivity, encourage labor force participation. We don't know how big those effects are going to be. We don't know what the timing would be. I think as you look around the table at the FOMC, there's a wide range of views on the amount and the timing of those. I think all of us would agree that we hope that they will be large.』
『JEANNA SMIALEK. Hi, Jeanna Smialek with Bloomberg News. So, obviously, you guys reduced your [inaudible] estimates late today, but if you continue to see job gains around 200,000 a month, primary labor participation rising slightly, pretty sustainably, you know, moderate wage increases, at what point are you guys going to start to question whether you're actually overshooting full employment? And, if you start to question that, how is that going to impact policy? 』
『CHAIRMAN POWELL. So, I guess, I'd start by saying that the natural rate of unemployment is not something that we can observe directly. We look at a wide range of indicators on that. You know, 15 or 20 of them at least, and also, I think we all understand that any point estimate is surrounded by very wide uncertainty events. So, as the, as the actual unemployment rate has declined from 10 percent to 4.1 percent, the Committee's median estimate of the natural rate of unemployment has also declined by a full percentage point.』
今般の景気回復局面においてSEPで示された自然失業率も実は1%くらい下がっていますとな。
『So, the Committee, and I think, people are generally influenced by data. As they see unemployment going lower, they're looking at a variety of aspects of the labor market, including wage inflation and price inflation. So, I don't think we, we, we're mindful of the uncertainty of that, and we'll be looking at that. So, as, if inflation, if unemployment does continue to go down, we'll continue to do that. As I mentioned earlier, there is no, there's no sense in the data that we're on the cusp of an acceleration of inflation. We have seen moderate increases in wages and price inflation, and we seem to be seeing more of that. We'll be alert to that. I guess the idea, the theory would be that if you get below the sustainable rate of unemployment for a sustained period, you would see an acceleration of inflation. So, we would know that, then. And, we're very alert to it, but it's not something we observe at the present. 』
「there is no, there's no sense in the data that we're on the cusp of an acceleration of inflation. We have seen moderate increases in wages and price inflation,」ってありますように、そもそもインフレが加速するという兆候は無いし、賃金もモデレートにしか上昇していませんがな、という認識になっていて、もちろんそこが変わる可能性は注意して認識しないと行けませんが、そんなに慌てる場面じゃない、という説明になっています。
『SAM FLEMING. Thanks very much. This is Sam Fleming from Financial Times. You and other policy makers have talked about headwinds turning into tailwinds recently. Does that imply that you think now in a higher neutral rate of interest is operative in the U.S. economy, and how would you assess the implications for monetary policy? Second question, this obviously your first press conference, so it's a little early to ask this question, but would you like to do this more often? Thanks. 』
前半は自然利子率の話で後半は会見回数の話ですな。
『CHAIRMAN POWELL. Longer-run values like the neutral rate of interest, the natural rate of unemployment, the potential growth rate of the economy are pinned down by slow moving forces over time. So, they don't move around very much. So, I wouldn't expect the Committee's, you know, predictions or projections or estimates of those values to move quickly. They'll move slowly.』
『So, is it possible that the neutral rate of interest would move up because of, for example, greater fiscal expansion? There's literature that says that. There are reasons that that might be the case. In fact, it did take up 1/10, as you will know, in the, in the median at this time. But, it's, I think, generally speaking, the Committee sees the neutral rate of interest as still quite low and is not, is not seeing it as having moved you and is open to the possibility that it will. 』
『Press conferences. So, that's something that I'm going to be carefully considering. I have not made a decision about it. My colleagues and I are committed to communicating as clearly as possible about what we're doing and why we're doing it. I would want to think very carefully about it and make sure that no one would take more frequent press conferences as a signal of the path of policy. And so, it'll something that I'll be thinking about. 』
[外部リンク] of Chairman Powell’s Press Conference March 21, 2018
・パウエルさんはしらっと答弁を躱すタイプなのかも知れない
『NICK TIMIRAOS. Thanks. I'm Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal. Chair Powell, I want to ask about the symmetric inflation target, what you outlined in your remarks as preventing persistent deviations.』
持続的に2%から乖離するのはケシカラン、という件についての質問です。
『I want to understand what symmetry means in the context of inflation being allowed to run above the 2 percent target now that that's part of the projection for, at least for core PCE next year. How do you define symmetric relative to the experience of the past five years? Would the Fed be willing to accept the type of overshoot of its target as it has seen during the undershoot? And, how high above 2 percent is too high to maintain a target that is symmetric? Is it 2-1/4, 2-1/2, 2-3/4? And also, for how long? 』
『CHAIRMAN POWELL. You know, so as you noted, the, what we've said in the longer run statement of goals and monetary policy strategy is that we would be concerned with sustained or persistent deviations of inflation either above or below. We've also said in minutes and in speeches and in things like that that that is a symmetric objective. So, that's how we think of it.』
で?
『And, I think it's, I wouldn't characterize what we've done over the last five years as tolerating, you know, an undershoot of inflation. We were always pushing toward 2 percent.』
『And, I think that is how we look at it. I can't give you an exact number. It just, you know, it, we haven't agreed on that. It just is that we're always going to be seeking 2 percent inflation. And, in doing that, we're going to be considering, by the way, the other side of the mandate. You know, we have to balance that against the deviation of employment from, unemployment from its goal. And, and, also just the duration of it as well. 』
『JIM PUZZANGHERA. Hi, Mr. Chairman. Jim Puzzanghera with the L.A. Times. Even with the extra fiscal stimulus of the tax cuts, your median growth projection is just up to 2.7 percent, and then this year, and then drops back down to 2 percent by 2020. Is the continued talk in Washington about tax cuts brining growth to 3 percent or higher on a sustained basis overselling their potential impact? 』
次の質問はタックスカットの影響が見通しにあまり反映されてないんじゃないのという質問ですが、
『CHAIRMAN POWELL. You know, let me say what that really is. So, it, the Summary of Economic Projections is really a compilation of the individual rate forecasts.』
『The committee made really one decision at this meeting, and that was to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The Summary of Economic Projections is individual forecasts compiled and written down. And, you've identified the median as 2.7 percent.』
『I would, and that's an interesting statistic I would also say that the central tendency is interesting. The full range is interesting. So, you have a range of views around the table. One of the great benefits of our system is that we do have reserve banks with their own staffs and governors with different views.』
『And so, we discuss these things. So, the committee doesn't vote or agree upon the medians, so you're going to have a range of views. That's really all I can say. 2.7 just happens to be the median for '18, but it doesn't really say, you know, what we think is possible. 』
『CHAIRMAN POWELL. You know, I would say it's hard to say, but it would take, you know, that is well above almost all estimates, current estimates of potential long run growth. It would take, you know, significant increases in productivity and labor force participation to get there.』
『CHAIRMAN POWELL. Good afternoon. I have a brief statement and then I’ll be happy to respond to your questions.
The job market remains strong, the economy continues to expand, and inflation appears to be moving toward the FOMC’s 2 percent longer-run goal. As you already know, we decided today to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point, bringing it to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. This decision marks another step in the ongoing process of gradually scaling back monetary policy accommodation--a process that has been under way for several years now.』
ということで、いきなりのっけから「The job market remains strong, the economy continues to expand, and inflation appears to be moving toward the FOMC’s 2 percent longer-run goal.」って威勢の良い話をかましてきておりまして、いやこれ普通に強い話をしていると思うんだけどなあ、って感じます。
・労働参加率改善に注目とな
この全体的な情勢判断の次に労働市場の話が来ます。
『Job gains averaged 240,000 per month over the past three months, well above the pace needed in the longer run to absorb new entrants into the labor force. The unemployment rate remained low in February at 4.1 percent, while the labor force participation rate moved higher. 』
労働参加率が高まる中でも2月失業率は4.1%と低水準。
『Over the past four years, the participation rate has remained roughly unchanged. That’s a sign of improvement, given that the aging of our population is putting downward pressure on the participation rate, and we expect that the job market will remain strong.』
でもってこれまでの回復期においては労働参加率が中々アガランチ会長であるというのが特徴で、人口動態の関係上労働参加率に下押し圧力が掛かる中なのに最近労働参加率が改善しながら失業が低水準というのは「That’s a sign of improvement」だそうな。
・経済見通しは改善
『Although the growth rates of household spending and business investment appear to have moderated early this year, gains in the fourth quarter were strong and the fundamentals underpinning demand remain solid. Indeed, the economic outlook has strengthened in recent months. Several factors are supporting the outlook: fiscal policy has become more stimulative, ongoing job gains are boosting incomes and confidence, foreign growth is on a firm trajectory, and overall financial conditions remain accommodative.』
『Against this backdrop, inflation remains below our 2 percent longer-run objective. Overall consumer prices, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures, increased 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in January. The core price index, which excludes the prices of energy and food and is typically a better indicator of future inflation, rose 1.5 percent over the same period.』
ここは直近の物価指標の数字、PCE物価指数でヘッドラインが前年比+1.7%のコアが+1.5%とな。
『However, as we have noted for some time, the shortfall of inflation from 2 percent reflects, at least partly, some unusual price declines that occurred nearly a year ago. In coming months, as those earlier declines drop out of the calculation, inflation should move up closer to 2 percent and stabilize around that level over the medium term. Of course, various forces will continue to affect inflation; at times it may be above 2 percent just as at times it may be below.』
『Our inflation objective is symmetric in the sense that we are trying to prevent persistent deviations from 2 percent in either direction.』
というのを最後に入れてタカを中和している感じがします。
・SEPの見通し数字(経済物価見通し)
でもってSEPの説明になりますがここは数字の話なので引用だけ。
『Based on the projections that Committee participants submitted for this meeting, the median projection for the growth of inflation-adjusted GDP is 2.7 percent this year, 2.4 percent next year, and 2 percent in 2020, a bit above its estimated longer-run rate. The median projection for the unemployment rate stands at 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of this year and runs at 3.6 percent over the next two years, almost a percentage point below the median estimate of its longer-run normal rate. Finally, the median inflation projection is 1.9 percent this year, 2 percent next year, and 2.1 percent in 2020. Compared with the projections made in December, real GDP growth is stronger, the unemployment rate is lower, and inflation is slightly higher.』
・金融政策判断について
『As I noted earlier, today’s decision to raise the federal funds rate is another step in the process of gradually scaling back monetary policy accommodation as the economic expansion continues. This gradual process has been under way for more than two years and it has served-and should continue to serve--the economy well. 』
『In making our policy decisions over the next few years, we will continue to aim for inflation of 2 percent while sustaining the economic expansion and a strong labor market. In the Committee’s view, further gradual increases in the federal funds rate will best promote these goals.』
今後も利上げをするのが適切と考えています、ってまあそらそうよという話ですが。
『By contrast, raising rates too slowly would raise the risk that monetary policy would need to tighten abruptly down the road, which could jeopardize the economic expansion.』
『At the same time, we want to avoid inflation running persistently below our objective, which could leave us with less scope to counter an economic downturn in the future. 』
『Participants’ projections of the appropriate path for the federal funds rate reflect our gradual approach.』
SEPのドットチャートの話になる。
『The median projection for the federal funds rate is 2.1 percent at the end of this year, 2.9 percent at the end of 2019, and 3.4 percent at the end of 2020. By 2020, the median federal funds rate is modestly above its estimated longer-run level trend.』
『Most participants revised up their projections since December, although the median projection for this year did not change. The medians for 2019 and 2020 are somewhat higher than in December.』
『Of course, we’ll be watching how the economy evolves in the months and years ahead relative to our maximum employment and price stability objectives. If the outlook changes, we will adjust monetary policy appropriately. 』
データディペンデントですよ、といういつものお話。
『Finally, I’ll note that our program for reducing our balance sheet, which began in October, is proceeding smoothly. Barring a very significant and unexpected weakening in the outlook, we do not intend to alter this program. As we’ve said, changing the target range for the federal funds rate is our primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy. As always, the Committee would be prepared to use its full range of tools if future economic conditions were to warrant a more accommodative monetary policy than can be achieved solely by reducing the federal funds rate.』
『STEVE LIESMAN. Mr. Chairman, welcome. Interesting changes in the forecast. A higher growth forecast a full point above the long run. Lower unemployment, 7/10 below the long run. And yet, very little change in inflation. What does that say about what you and the Committee believe about the inflation dynamic, and how is it that in that context, you justify three rate hikes this year, and I sense will be three next year and a full $600 billion, I guess, annual rate decline in the balance sheet? Where's your biggest concern here? Is it in overkill when it comes to rates or underkill? 』
『CHAIRMAN POWELL. So, you’re right that the outlook did improve, as I mentioned and as you was in your question. The Committee's estimates of growth went up. The Committee's estimates of unemployment went down, and it was a very light increase in inflation. And, I think that reflects, essentially, if you think back to the air after the crisis, unemployment was 10 percent. It's now 4.1 percent. You've only seen very gradual upward pressures on inflation and wages despite that very large increase.』
『And, that suggests that the relationship between changes in slack and inflation is not so tight. But, it has diminished, but it's still there. So, I think when you see those small changes in unemployment, that simply reflects the, you know, the flatness of the Phillip's curve, if you will. 』
『STEVE LIESMAN. And, your biggest concern or your biggest risk here, is it doing too much, doing too little? 』
質問後半の聞きなおし。
『CHAIRMAN POWELL. You know, I think we're trying to, we're trying to be, to take the middle ground there. So, you know, on one hand, the risk would be that we wait too long, and then we have to raise rates quickly. And, that foreshortens the expansion. We don't want to do that. The, on the other side, if we, if we raise rates too quickly, inflation, then, really doesn't get sustainably up to 2 percent. And, that will hurt us going forward. We need that, and it's, you know, we need to make sure that inflation expectations are anchored at 2 percent. So, we're trying to take that middle ground, and the Committee continues to believe that the middle ground consists of further, gradual increases in the federal funds rate as long as the economy is broadly on this path. 』
[外部リンク] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate.』(今回)
『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate.』(前回)
『Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Recent data suggest that growth rates of household spending and business fixed investment have moderated from their strong fourth-quarter readings.』(今回)
『Gains in employment, household spending, and business fixed investment have been solid, and the unemployment rate has stayed low.』(前回)
経済活動の現状認識が下がった理由は家計と企業の活動がモデレートになったから。
『On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have continued to run below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.』(今回)
『On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have continued to run below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.』(前回)
インフレとインフレ期待に関する認識は前回と全文一致。
・第2パラグラフ:しかしながら「先行き見通しが強まっているので利上げ」キタコレ
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.』(今回) 『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.』(前回)
これはいつものマクラ。
『The economic outlook has strengthened in recent months. The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace in the medium term and labor market conditions will remain strong. 』(今回)
『The Committee expects that, with further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will remain strong.』(前回)
今回思いっきり「The economic outlook has strengthened in recent months.」というのをぶち込んでいるのはおお頑張ってるじゃんという感じなのでこれは強いのと、徐々に金融緩和の調整をする中で経済活動が今後もモデレートに拡大、という説明の中に「in the medium term」ってのがはいったのが何か微妙に意味があるように見えるがイマイチよく分からんので誰か教えてジェネラル。
『Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to move up in coming months and to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term.』(今回) 『Inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to move up this year and to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term.』(前回)
『Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.』(今回) 『Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.』(前回)
リスク認識バランスというのは同じ。
・第3パラグラフ:市場織り込み済みですが政策金利1.25-1.5→1.5-1.75に引上げ
『In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.』(今回)
『In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/4 to 1-1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.』(前回)
『In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.』(今回)
『In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.』(前回)
前回と全文一致でここの話は毎度の通り。
・第5パラグラフ:票決は全員一致
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams.』(今回)
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Randal K. Quarles; and John C. Williams.』(前回)
反対しそうなの今の投票メンバーにいませんからね。
〇SEPは案の定だが利上げ見通しが強くなっている
[外部リンク] 21, 2018 Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the March 20-21 FOMC meeting
てな訳でSEPですけれども。
PDF版 [外部リンク] in real GDP 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.8 December projection 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.8
[外部リンク] of Chairman Powell’s Press Conference Opening Remarks March 21, 2018
・出オチ感甚だしい最初のぶっこみ
『CHAIRMAN POWELL. Good afternoon. I have a brief statement and then I’ll be happy to respond to your questions.
The job market remains strong, the economy continues to expand, and inflation appears to be moving toward the FOMC’s 2 percent longer-run goal. As you already know, we decided today to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point, bringing it to 1 1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. This decision marks another step in the ongoing process of gradually scaling back monetar policy accommodation--a process that has been under way for several years now.』
ということでいきなり最初に強い言い方キタコレという感じです。労働市場に関しては・・・・・・・・
・パーティシペーションレートの拡大を評価
『Job gains averaged 240,000 per month over the past three months, well above the pace needed in the longer run to absorb new entrants into the labor force. The unemployment rate remained low in February at 4.1 percent, while the labor force participation rate moved higher. Over the past four years, the participation rate has remained roughly unchanged. That’s a sign of improvement, given that the aging of our population is putting downward pressure on the participation rate, and we expect that the job market will remain strong.
労働参加率が上がっていることを「That’s a sign of improvement」と評価。
・足元のアセスメントを下げても先行きを強くしているのはまずは財政
『Although the growth rates of household spending and business investment appear to have moderated early this year, gains in the fourth quarter were strong and the fundamentals underpinning demand remain solid. Indeed, the economic outlook has strengthened in recent months. Several factors are supporting the outlook: fiscal policy has become more stimulative, ongoing job gains are boosting incomes and confidence, foreign growth is on a firm trajectory, and overall financial conditions remain accommodative. 』
『Against this backdrop, inflation remains below our 2 percent longer-run objective. Overall consumer prices, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures, increased 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in January. The core price index, which excludes the prices of energy and food and is typically a better indicator of future inflation, rose 1.5 percent over the same period.』
ここまでは現象面の話。
『However, as we have noted for some time, the shortfall of inflation from 2 percent reflects, at least partly, some unusual price declines that occurred nearly a year ago. In coming months, as those earlier declines drop out of the calculation, inflation should move up closer to 2 percent and stabilize around that level over the medium term.』
今後数カ月と来ました。
『Of course, various forces will continue to affect inflation; at times it may be above 2 percent just as at times it may be below. Our inflation objective is symmetric in the sense that we are trying to prevent persistent deviations from 2 percent in either direction. 』
