多分物件はこちら [外部リンク] interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policy
Speech by Peter Praet[1], Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Money, Macro and Finance Research Group Conference on the Resilience of the Global Financial Architecture, London, 27 September 2018
なお証券大会での挨拶というのもありますがどうでも良い内容なのでURLだけ貼っておきます。 [外部リンク] of Chairman Powell’s Press Conference September 26, 2018
会見の部分ももう出ているのですが、本日は冒頭説明部分だけで勘弁していただきとう存じます。
・対外アピールの工夫というか何というか
『CHAIRMAN POWELL: Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks very much for being here. I am going to start with an overview of how my colleagues and I see the economy, what we decided today, and a bit about our expectations for the months ahead.』
ということで始まるのですが、
『Our economy is strong. Growth is running at a healthy clip. Unemployment is low, the number of people working is rising steadily, and wages are up. Inflation is low and stable. All of these are very good signs. Of course, that’s not say that everything is perfect.』
とまあここまでは普通に従来の方々でも言いそうですが次が味わいがある。
『The benefits of this strong economy have not reached all Americans.』
『Many of our country’s economic challenges are beyond the scope of the Fed, but my colleagues and I are doing all we can to keep the economy strong, healthy, and moving forward. That is the best way we can promote an environment in which every American has the opportunity to succeed.』
全ての問題に対処はできないけど、FEDが「an environment in which every American has the opportunity to succeed」をプロモートするように努力している、とかこういう政治性というか一般向けを強く意識した言い方をする(せざるを得ない)のは従来とは一味違う(今までの人もこの手の話を全くしなかったという訳ではないが、こうやって頭からぶちかましてくるという感じはあまり無かった)ですな。
しかも・・・・・・・・
『Each time my colleagues and I meet, we face the same question: How can we set policy to best support job growth and low, steady inflation? For many years, this question called for very low interest rates to help an economy that had been damaged by the deep financial crisis that gripped the world 10 years ago. As the economy has steadily gained strength, the Fed has been gradually returning interest rates closer to levels that are normal in a healthy economy. We took another step on that path today, with a quarter-point increase in short-term interest rates. These rates remain low, and my colleagues and I believe that this gradual return to normal is helping to sustain this strong economy for the longer-run benefit of all Americans.』
と、ここでの説明の最後にも「benefit of all Americans」とか入れているのがチャーミング。
でもって更に、
『As I mentioned, 10 years have now passed since the depths of the financial crisis--a painful part of our history that cost many Americans their jobs, their homes, and, for some, their hopes and dreams.』
『In addition to holding interest rates low to support the recovery, we have also taken many steps to make the financial system safer. In particular, we are holding the largest banks to much higher standards in the amount of capital and liquidity they hold, and in the ways they assess and manage the risks they take. I am confident that the system today is stronger and in a far better position to support the financial needs of households and businesses through good times and bad. We continue to work to sustain these fundamental improvements while also ensuring that regulation is both effective and efficient.』
基本的には大勝利宣言チックな説明にはなっています。
『Now, let me go into more detail about the developments that motivated today’s policy decision.』
2ページ目中段に入ってやっと政策の説明になる(なお冒頭説明は3ページと少々)。
・経済雇用物価情勢の説明が先に入ります
『Both household spending and business investment are expanding briskly, and the overall growth outlook remains favorable. Several factors support this assessment: Fiscal policy is boosting the economy, ongoing job gains are raising incomes and confidence, and overall financial conditions remain accommodative. These conditions are consistent with our Summary of Economic Projections for this meeting. The median of Committee participants’ projections for the growth of real GDP is 3.1 percent this year and 2.5 percent next year.』
『Job gains averaged 185,000 per month over the last three months, well above the pace needed in the longer run to provide jobs for new entrants to the labor force. The unemployment rate stood at 3.9 percent in August, and has been near that level since April. Smoothing through month-to-month variations, the labor force participation rate remains about where it was in late 2013--a positive sign, given that the aging of our population is putting downward pressure on participation. We expect the job market to remain strong. And the median of Committee participants’ projections for the unemployment rate later this year is 3.7 percent, and a bit lower than that in 2019.』
『Overall consumer prices, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE inflation), increased 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in July. The core price index, which excludes the prices of energy and food and tends to be a better indicator of future inflation, rose 2 percent over the same period.』
『The FOMC seeks, and expects to see, inflation remaining near our 2 percent longer-run objective on a sustained basis.』
でもって次が物価ですがどう見てもマンデート達成です本当にありがとうございました。
『At any given time, inflation may be somewhat above or below 2 percent. For example, the recent rise in oil prices has pushed inflation a little above 2 percent, but we expect this to be transitory, as is reflected in our projections. The median projections for both the overall and core inflation measures remain very close to 2 percent across the whole projection horizon. 』
ということで物価もマンデート達成継続の見通しですからこれは大勝利。
・利上げの説明があっさり味なのは「予想通りのパスなので予定通り利上げしました」だからでしょうな
続いて金利引き上げに関して。
『Today the Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point, bringing it to 2 to 2-1/4 percent. This action reflects the strength we see in the economy, and is one more step in the process that we began almost three years ago of gradually returning interest rates to more normal levels.』
とありまして(昨日引用しましたが)この後に“the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative.”を削除した件の説明がありますけど、ここにありますように、今回の決定は「one more step in the process that we began almost three years ago of gradually returning interest rates to more normal levels」となっていますので、政策金利の水準はまだnormalの前段階であって、accommodativeである、という事になると解釈すべきだと思うのよね。ただ一方で現状及び見通しがどう見てもマンデート達成なのだから、政策スタンスはaccommodativeである必要はないので削除、でもって水準がaccommodativeなのの修正については急ぐ必要はないけど引き続きやっていきますよ、というのが今回のメッセージだと思うので、利上げ打ち止め示唆ヒャッハーと言って喜ぶのはどうかと思うし、大体からして成長率が長期ロンガーランに収斂していくという見通しになっている中で政策金利見通しを中立金利よりも大きく逸脱させた予想を出すのは整合性取れないから打ち止め予想になるの当たり前じゃんと思うんだが、こうなってくるとドットチャートの弊害が出てくるわなと思う、というのは昨日も申し上げた通りです。
『Looking ahead, today’s projections show gradual interest rate increases continuing roughly as foreseen in June. The median of the participants’ views on appropriate policy through 2020 are unchanged since the June meeting.』
微妙に「打ち止め時の金利」の意見が割れて来てはいますがそこはスルーしてますな。
『These projections play an important role in our work.』
ほう。
『My colleagues and I believe it is useful to communicate our views on likely prospects for the economy and for policy.』
とはいうものの、経済見通しは兎も角中立状態になった後の金利見通しというのはどうかと思う。
『We are well aware, however, that the economy regularly surprises, and that even the most carefully constructed projections are highly uncertain. The projections about the appropriate path of policy assume that the economy evolves broadly in line with the projections for growth, unemployment, and inflation. If the economy were instead to falter, lower interest rates would be appropriate. Conversely, if inflationary pressures were to rise more than expected, higher interest rates would be appropriate. Right now, as our statement indicates, risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.』
『Readers of the FOMC statement likely noted that the Committee dropped a sentence that indicated that “the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative.” This change does not signal any change in the likely path of policy; instead, it is a sign that policy is proceeding in line with our expectations. We still expect, as our statement says, “further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate,” and this expectation is reflected in the projections that I just discussed.』
経済物価情勢がin line with our expectationsだから削除しました、ということで、つまりは先ほど申し上げたようにマンデート達成状態なのに緩和スタンスはおかしいじゃろという話で、それを外すチャンスだったということなんでしょうな、うんうん。
『Thanks very much. I’m happy to take your questions.』
[外部リンク] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. 』(今回) 『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate.』(前回)
8月とまるで同じ認識。
『Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending and business fixed investment have grown strongly.』(今回) 『Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending and business fixed investment have grown strongly.』(前回)
強い認識のままですな。
『On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.』(今回) 『On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.』(前回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.』(今回) 『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.』(前回)
最初の護符のようなものはいつも同じ。
『The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.』(今回)
『The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.』(前回)
『In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent.』(今回)
『In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-3/4 to 2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.』(前回)
ということで、今回は「The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative」が抜けたのですが、これを物凄くハト派的に無理くり解釈すると「FEDは政策金利水準が緩和的な水準ではないと表明したので、利上げ打ち止めが近いぜヒャッハー」となりますが、SEPで示されている中立金利水準はもうちょっと上ですし、ドットチャートも割と来年の利上げがやる気元気井脇になっていますので、まあさすがにここの文言をドロップさせたからと言って利上げ打ち止めとか言い出すのは無理があると思います。あと、これドロップさせた後半には「sustained return to 2 percent inflation」というのもあるのですが、一方で見通しの方を見ると物価って先行きずーっと2%の所になっていまして(ここの文言はセット販売になっているからあまり変な読み方しない方がよいとはおもいますが)、文言ドロップによって2%達成しましたぜヒャッハーと言っている、とも言えるのではなかろうかと。
ちなみに会見冒頭ステートメントでは(PDF出てくるのが遅かったのでまだちゃんと読めてないんですが)、最後の部分でパウエル議長このように説明しています。 [外部リンク] of the FOMC statement likely noted that the Committee dropped a sentence that indicated that “the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative.” This change does not signal any change in the likely path of policy; instead, it is a sign that policy is proceeding in line with our expectations. We still expect, as our statement says, “further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate,” and this expectation is reflected in the projections that I just discussed.』(上記URL先のFOMC後会見より)
『In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.』(今回)
『In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.』(前回)
今後の政策運営においては状況を見ながらやっていきますよ、という大体お経のような文言ですな。
・第5パラグラフ:全員賛成ですな
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.』(今回)
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.』(前回)
[外部リンク] Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. 』(2010年1月FOMC声明文より)
[外部リンク] Updated: 09/14/18 Monetary Policy: The Road Ahead A speech presented on September 14, 2018, before the Northeast Indiana Regional Economic Forum in Fort Wayne, IN.
『First, let me give you a preview of some of my comments: The U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders, with strong growth, low unemployment, and inflation approaching our 2 percent symmetric target on a sustained basis.1 I expect this good performance to continue over the next few years. While there are some risks to the outlook, I see them as being balanced.』
米国経済は全部のシリンダーがファイヤーしているそうな。なんだその強気。
『Given the strong growth fundamentals and positive inflation outlook, it is time for the Fed to return to the conventional monetary policymaking of yesteryear. Such policy will rely on gradual adjustments in interest rates to meet our mandated objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation, rather than the unconventional tools we had to use in response to the financial crisis and ensuing Great Recession.』
なので伝統的金利政策に戻るべきということでそういう話がこの後の経済の説明の中で出てくる。
『There is an important caveat, however. As I will discuss in more detail, the longer-run normal level of interest rates-what economists call the neutral level-is noticeably lower today than it was during earlier times of conventional monetary policymaking. This means we don’t have the same capacity to cut interest rates in response to adverse economic shocks as we did in the past. And if we run out of such room, then we may again have to turn to unconventional tools such as large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance about the funds rate to provide monetary accommodation. So, we aren’t quite going back to the same old monetary policy world that we had in the past. My son might refer to this as a “remix.”』
でもって最初の本論の『The current economic situation and outlook』なんですが、この前ネタにしたエバンス総裁の講演と同様に物凄い勢いで威勢の良い話をしていますが、個別項目でほほーと思ったところを多少引用します。
『Business capital spending has been another source of strength in the economy, having risen more than 6-3/4 percent at an annual rate over the first half of the year. Moreover, forward-looking indicators-such as the backlog of unfilled orders for capital goods and upbeat business sentiment-point to a continuation of robust gains in investment. Likewise, my business contacts in Indiana and elsewhere report solid momentum in capital expenditures in the near term, but there are concerns that continued uncertainty over the international trade situation may impinge on some firms’ investment plans further out in the future.』
『Of course, recent fiscal policy actions also are influencing the economy. There are many details in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 and the Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2018 to evaluate. For the tax act in particular, there are a variety of channels that influence spending, and its overall effect on GDP growth is highly uncertain. That said, most analyses find that the two fiscal policy changes should boost aggregate activity by a moderate amount in the near and medium terms; but the longer-run effects are likely to be relatively small.』
トランプ税制に関しては足元をブーストするものの長期的に見た影響は相対的に小さいでしょうとな。
経済のまとめ(途中物凄い勢いで割愛しています)。
『To sum up, I expect the economy to expand at a solid rate over the next several years; the unemployment rate to decline somewhat further; and inflation to edge up a bit above 2 percent-but certainly not to anything high enough to be inconsistent with our symmetric 2 percent target. Let me also note that my economic outlook is generally in line with those of my colleagues on the FOMC as indicated by the median of the projections we all submitted during our last regular quarterly forecasting exercise this past June.2 In other words, we are more or less singing the same tune.』
だそうで、まあ強いですし、エバンス総裁は概ねSEPの中心にいるという事のようです。
・金利は中立よりもマイルドに上の水準に置くというイメージ
これもこの前ネタにした講演で言ってましたので簡単に。『A return to conventional monetary policymaking』から。
『To put the projected interest rate path in perspective, note that in our quarterly forecasts each FOMC participant also writes down where the federal funds rate should settle at when policy is neutral-that is, when policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. Most FOMC participants put this neutral federal funds rate somewhere in the range of 2-1/2 to 3 percent. This means that the 3 to 3-1/2 percent level of the funds rate projected for 2019 and 2020 is mildly restrictive. Given an unemployment rate forecast below the natural rate, such a policy stance would be quite normal and consistent with some moderation in growth and a gradual return of employment to its longer-run sustainable level.』
『Low equilibrium interest rates are challenging』というのが最後ですが、
『There is, however, an important difference between the conventional monetary policy of today and conventional policy prior to the Great Recession. That is, the neutral interest rate-the rate when policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary?is a good deal lower than it used to be.』
つーことで、中立金利が低くなっている理由の説明がありますが、
『The reasons for the slowdown are well known. Growth in the labor force has moderated with slower population growth and a downtrend in labor force participation. Furthermore, labor productivity has been disappointing, especially when compared with the large gains seen in the second half of the 1990s and the early 2000s. These realities will likely be with us for a long time. I should note, too, that the U.S. isn’t alone here; most advanced economies are facing similar situations.』
『As I mentioned before, at the Chicago Fed, we see the longer-run U.S. growth potential at a bit under 2 percent. I hope this assessment turns out to be too pessimistic. Higher sustainable growth would be great. However, we can’t get there without boosting the underlying trends in labor input or productivity. As a nation, we should work on public policy that could be effective in doing so. But such policies are clearly outside the realm of monetary policy.』
『There are other reasons why the neutral interest rate is lower now. One is the large demand-from both domestic and foreign sources-for U.S. Treasuries and other high-quality assets. And, of course, low inflation also reduces the neutral nominal interest rate.』
世界的に安全資産需要が高いこと、インフレが低いのもその理由、ということで・・・・・・・
『This new reality has important implications for monetary policy. When the economy is hit with disinflationary shocks, the Fed provides offsetting stimulus by reducing its main policy tool, the federal funds rate. But there is a limit to how far the funds rate can be cut without causing large-scale counterproductive disruptions in short-term money markets. Some central banks found they could take their policy rates a touch negative, but not very much so; in the U.S. we think this so-called effective lower bound-or ELB-on the funds rate is essentially zero.』
『With this in mind, it’s clear that a lower neutral interest rate will mean that monetary policy will have less headroom to provide adequate rate cuts when large disinflationary shocks hit the economy. Between the mid-1980s and early 2000s, we typically reduced short-term policy rates something in the neighborhood of 500 basis points when mitigating economic downturns. Today, given a neutral federal funds rate in the range of, say, 2-1/2 to 3 percent, we simply do not have that kind of rate-cutting capacity. So, unfortunately, the risks of returning to the ELB are higher than we would like. Although it’s very hard to estimate, nearly 20 years ago one well-known study put these risks at about 15 percent; work done in 2017 put the odds today closer to 40 percent .3』
『While these tools proved useful, they are not perfect substitutes for our usual interest rate policy. Indeed, there is a good deal of research going on today in academia and in central banks on alternative frameworks that might improve the performance of monetary policy in a world with higher risks of returning to the ELB.4 But there are no panaceas. Alternatives may lessen the odds of hitting the ELB, but they cannot drive them to zero. And whenever we are at the ELB, the question of alternative policy tools becomes relevant again.』
LSAPがあるけど万能ではないということなのですが・・・・・・・・
『Personally, the most important lesson I learned from our experience at the ELB is that policymakers have to promise to use all available means to bring inflation and employment back to their objectives within a reasonable period of time. And, crucially, this promise must be credible. Failing to back it up with actions and communications all along the way would have rendered our unconventional policies stillborn and ineffective. We must remember this lesson for any future encounters we may have with the ELB.』
『Indeed, the FOMC has made clear that it stands ready to use alternative policies if needed. In an addendum to our Policy Normalization Principles and Plans made a little over a year ago, the Committee stated it would be ready to use its full range of tools if future economic conditions warranted more accommodative policy than could be achieved by use of the federal funds rate alone.5 You can find this point reiterated in the minutes of our meeting last month.6 And in his Jackson Hole address in August, Chair Powell reiterated the importance of the “do whatever it takes” approach to policy when faced with difficult situations such as the risk of a protracted period at the ELB or if inflation expectations were to move into material conflict with our inflation objective.7 』
ジャクソンホール講演でパウエルが危機対応の話としてバーナンキの「do whatever it takes」スタンスを称賛したのも同じ話である、という説明をしていまして、あの講演出た時にはバーナンキ称賛→緩和スタンス→ゴルディロックスヒャッハーとかなっていたように記憶していますが、やはりそうじゃないよねという話で、将来オブ将来の話として、非伝統的政策を使わないといけない際にはドドーンとぶっこんでいきまっしょい!という話なだけで、今の政策云々ではない、ということをエバンスさんが説明しましたな、という所ではないでしょうか(個人の感想です)。
『You've decided to reduce bond purchases from October. But you've still left the ending of the programme at the end of the year open to or dependent on the incoming data. Could you walk us through the arguments behind that decision; why leaving the ending of the programme still open?』
買入のエンドはまだデータ次第と言ってるがどうなってますねんという質問と、
『Based on the forecast you've received today and the discussion that you had, would you say that the output gap in the eurozone is already closed or is close to being closed this year? Or we'll still have to wait for that to happen next year?』
需給ギャップはどうなっていますかという質問ですが、そのお答え。
『The answer to your second question is that we have seen growth rates now for some time above growth potential.』
ほほうポテンシャル以上とな。
『To the first question, basically we haven't discussed this. My reading is here: we will reduce the monthly pace until the end of December. We anticipate that, subject to incoming data confirming our medium-term inflation outlook, we will then end net purchases. I think that's the text, that's what we've discussed; we haven't elaborated on that. But let me make clear that it's - when we stop, this doesn't mean that our monetary policy stops being accommodating. The amount of accommodation will remain very significant, through our reinvestment policy and through our forward guidance and interest rates.』
『Your new economic forecasts suggest that inflation will hover around 1.7% for the next two and a bit years; is that consistent with these mandates and the decision to phase out QE?』
『In relation to that: shouldn't the ECB be aiming for an overshoot on inflation rather than an undershoot given that it's been below target for so long?』
後半の質問はちと話が先走り過ぎとるのだが、前半の質問の答えもこれは強い。
『The answer to the first question is, yes, it's consistent.』
キタコレ。
『We have seen convergence and that's what the discussion today confirms. We are seeing convergence of the inflation rate to our aim. We have confidence that this is happening, confidence based first and foremost on our monetary policy, which remains accommodative and second, on the underlying strength of the economy. The ever-improving conditions of the labour market - we’ll maybe elaborate on that. But certainly the last number is also quite significant. The latest number about employment, it says that 9.2 million jobs have been created in the euro area since 2013 and rising wages. We are confident that our present monetary policy stance is consistent with our aim.』
We are confident that our present monetary policy stance is consistent with our aimだそうなので、これまたエライ威勢が宜しいお答えになっております。
『Second point: our objective is an inflation rate which is below, but close to 2% over the medium term; we stay with that, that's our objective.』
後半の質問にはまあこうとしか答えないでしょうな。
・新興国懸念に関してはあまり問題にしていなくてやはり懸念は貿易戦争の拡大
ちょっと先の方に飛びまして、
『You've mentioned increasing risks concerning emerging markets. The currency crises in Argentina and Turkey seem to have contagion effects on other emerging markets. How much of a threat is that for the eurozone economy and the world economy?』
『The current problems in the emerging markets seem to be related at least partly also to the tightening of monetary policy in the US and the withdrawal of liquidity. The ECB also anticipates to stop net purchases next year. What kind of risks do you expect when the two main central banks reduce liquidity?』
『Well, considering the first questions, the increased uncertainties in some emerging markets is certainly one factor that adds to the general uncertainty in world markets. But having said that, so far the spillovers from Turkey and Argentina to other countries have not been substantial.』
『Once again as we've seen two or three years ago with similar crises in emerging markets, once again it is shown that the countries that are most vulnerable to contagion are the countries which have the weakest fundamentals; namely high current account deficit, high inflation, high budget deficit. Other emerging market countries that have better fundamentals have not been affected. I think that's one key consideration which is also, in a sense, seen from the perspective of the eurozone reassuring. So far we've seen quite limited contagion at least in the aggregate.』
『Now, of course we can have individual situations of significant exposure to local crises. That's different because that would affect individual entities, but not in the aggregate.』
『Now, I think I listed three sources of uncertainty.』
3つの不確実性の源だそうな。
『One is the general change in the situation of emerging markets, which by the way doesn't include only Argentina and Turkey because big changes are also happening in China of a different kind, however, not financial stability-related.』
新興国全体の問題に広がるケース。
『The second source of uncertainty is indeed the potential - we haven't seen much of it yet but it's one of the risks we're looking at, we are certainly monitoring - the potential financial market volatility generated by changes - gradual, at measured pace as you know - changes in monetary policy in the main jurisdictions. This is one potential risk of enhanced financial volatility and we're also monitoring that.』
金融市場の大きなボラティリティに繋がるケース。
『Certainly the major source of uncertainty that we see in global output comes from the rising protectionism.』
保護主義の広がりキタコレ。
『That is the major source of uncertainty which, by the way, is reflected in the current macroeconomic projections only to the extent of the measures that have been implemented already.』
そりゃそうだと思いますが、major source of uncertaintyだそうで。
『The current projections do not reflect measures that have been announced, measures that have been threatened. Clearly, there we have to look at basically three factors that may make this uncertainty more severe.』
より問題が大きくなる要因が3つだそうでまた3つかよという感じですが。
『One is clearly, we have to see, we have to assess the extent of an escalation; that is one factor that certainly we have to look at.』
エスカレートするケース。
『The so-called confidence effects; besides the effects on prices and tariffs and quotas and volumes, trade and so on, what is going to be the effect on general confidence of an extended trade war? That is certainly a second factor.』
貿易戦争が与える(企業や家計の)信頼感に与えるケース。
『The third factor which makes any assessment quite difficult is to assess; what are the implications on the international value chain of changes in tariffs of a broad and significant proportion?』
『I'd like to ask about whether or not there was any discussion - or even a discussion of when you will have a discussion - on the reinvestment policy.』
『I'd also be interested in your personal view of this idea floating around of an “Operation Twist”-style operation that could perhaps be tailored to the needs of specific eurozone member states.』
オペレーションツイスト方式でのQE継続ちゅうのはちょっとと思いますが。
『Now, frankly we haven't discussed and we haven't - as I said last time, we haven't even discussed when we are going to discuss it. Now, having said that we have two meetings before year-end. So we either discuss next time or in December. It's just a matter of - we'll take this decision in the coming days, really. It was going to be at the level of committees first and foremost because it'll have to be prepared - properly prepared. Other than that, as you've seen from my reading, the reinvestment statement is exactly the same as before.』
資産買入の拡大が終わってから考えていくような話なので特になんも議論していませんとな。
『Now, we haven't discussed either the “Operation Twist” or whether to reinvest in different maturities. I think what I said last time - and I can confirm that even though we haven't discussed, I believe the Governing Council would be pretty unanimous on that - is that the capital key will remain the guiding principle.』
『Even if it looks open-ended, let's say that QE is about to end and there is growing confusion in Italy I think about what QE has been really all about. Some people think that QE is a sort of securities markets programme and that the end of QE will mean that Italy in particular will be abandoned, left alone to fight against attacks of speculators. I don't know whether you want to comment on what QE is really all about.』
『It's actually a comment made on other occasions in different contexts. The mandate of the ECB is price stability in the medium term. QE has been one of the tools we used to pursue this task. In the past the ECB was asked: why are we keeping, for example, interest rates negative and we are depriving the savers from their income? Or why are we hurting insurance companies, banks, through low interest rates? As always answered, the mandate of the ECB is not to protect bankers' profits or insurance companies' profits.』
『In this case, responding to your question, it's not to ensure that government deficits would be financed under all conditions. Our task is to pursue price stability.』
物価目標達成のために必要な政策をやっているだけです(キリッ)だそうです。
その後でも質問がありまして、
『(前半割愛)The second question is about Italy and it's about the fact that bond yields have risen in recent months. How's that affecting financing conditions at large in Italy and in the periphery?』
イタリアに関して金利上がっているんですがというツッコミに対しては、
『(前半割愛)The second question was about Italy. Let me say something I was about to say before when I was asked about Italy. First of all, words in the last few months have changed many times. What we are now waiting for is facts, and the main fact is the draft budget law - and not only that - and the subsequent parliamentary discussion.』
財政に関する議会の審議状況を確認したいとのこと。
『We have to see how that is and then savers, capital markets, investors will formulate their view. Unfortunately we've seen, as you said before, that words have created some damage. Interest rates have gone up and they've gone up for households and they've gone up for firms. By the way, this is another interesting point: all this hasn't created much of a spillover to other euro area countries. It's remained, at least so far, pretty much an Italian episode.』
『Now, having said that we have to basically be aware that the Italian Prime Minister, the Italian Minister of the Economy, the Italian Foreign Affairs Ministers have all said that Italy is going to respect the rules.』
ということで首相や財務相や外相の動きには注意をしているそうです。
・ESTARに関して
『Today there has been a recommendation by the private sector group to take the ESTER as a new euro risk-free rate. I'd like to know if the ECB is endorsing that decision.』
『Secondly I'm wondering about the fallback rate. As far as I know, the ECB was trying to deliver ESTER as a fallback rate in case the private sector could not agree on a new benchmark rate. Now thequestion is: if ESTER will become the new EONIA, what will be the fallback rate after our banks need a fallback rate when they use such a systemic benchmark?』
まあ金融政策とは直接関係ないですが、ベンチマークレートをどうするのかという話です。
『Today just not long ago the private sector working group has recommended to use the euro short-term rate - that's why it's called ESTER - the euro short-term rate as an alternative free rate as a replacement for EONIA that no longer meets the criteria of the EU benchmarks regulation.』
『It will see its use restricted as of the January 2020. So we welcome this decision, because also it brings the euro area closer to other jurisdictions where this issue's been addressed already.』
2020年の頭から使うという話になっておりますが。
『Of course we want to state clearly that the private sector plays the dominant role in ensuring a smooth transition, but this transition's just started. There is a subgroup of the working group led, by the way, by a former colleague of mine in the Executive Board and a countryman of Mr de Guindos, Mr Gonzalez-Paramo, that actually will oversee exactly the point that you raised; namely what should be done to ensure the robustness of the contractual arrangements that are based on other benchmark rates on Euribor and EONIA?』
『So we can't say much about the future of Euribor because that depends very much on the administrator of Euribor and on the regulators; namely ESMA and FSMA.』
『At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.』
金利は据え置き、ガイダンス文言も据え置き。
『Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council will continue to make net purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) at the current monthly pace of ユーロ30 billion until the end of this month. After September 2018, the Governing Council will reduce the monthly pace of the net asset purchases to ユーロ15 billion until the end of December 2018 and anticipates that, subject to incoming data confirming the medium-term inflation outlook, net purchases will then end. The Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time after the end of the net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.』
10月からのテーパリング第2弾の予定にも変更はなし。買入資産残高の維持は「for an extended period of time」の間実施する(資産規模縮小は先の話)というのも同じ。
でもって会見ですが、 [外部リンク] CONFERENCE Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 13 September 2018
『Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We continue to expect them to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.』
金利の話。
『Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, we will continue to make net purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) at the current monthly pace of ユーロ30 billion until the end of this month. After September 2018, we will reduce the monthly pace of the net asset purchases to ユーロ15 billion until the end of December 2018 and we anticipate that, subject to incoming data confirming our medium-term inflation outlook, we will then end net purchases. We intend to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time after the end of our net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.』
資産買入の話、でこの二つは声明文と同じ話。
『The incoming information, including our new September 2018 staff projections, broadly confirms our previous assessment of an ongoing broad-based expansion of the euro area economy and gradually rising inflation.』
『The underlying strength of the economy continues to support our confidence that the sustained convergence of inflation to our aim will proceed and will be maintained even after a gradual winding-down of our net asset purchases.』
よって資産買入のテーパリング(とは言わないでワインドダウンと言ってますが)は予定通り行うのが妥当。
『At the same time, uncertainties relating to rising protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial market volatility have gained more prominence recently.』
『Significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed to support the further build-up of domestic price pressures and headline inflation developments over the medium term. This support will continue to be provided by the net asset purchases until the end of the year, by the sizeable stock of acquired assets and the associated reinvestments, and by our enhanced forward guidance on the key ECB interest rates. In any event, the Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments as appropriate to ensure that inflation continues to move towards the Governing Council’s inflation aim in a sustained manner.』
前回のECB [外部リンク] uncertainties, notably related to the global trade environment, remain prominent, the information available since our last monetary policy meeting indicates that the euro area economy is proceeding along a solid and broad-based growth path. The underlying strength of the economy confirms our confidence that the sustained convergence of inflation to our aim will continue in the period ahead and will be maintained even after a gradual winding-down of our net asset purchases. Nevertheless, significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed to support the further build-up of domestic price pressures and headline inflation developments over the medium term. This support will continue to be provided by the net asset purchases until the end of the year, by the sizeable stock of acquired assets and the associated reinvestments, and by our enhanced forward guidance on the key ECB interest rates. In any event, the Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments as appropriate to ensure that inflation continues to move towards the Governing Council’s inflation aim in a sustained manner.』(この部分だけ前回ECBでの冒頭ステートメントより引用)
面倒なので一気に引用しましたが、不確実性の所が前回は「global trade environment」とトランプのアホウが馬鹿踊りをしている件についてのみ言及していましたが、今回は「vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial market volatility」というのが入っていまして、新興国市場があばばばばーになって経済に悪影響だったり、市場が大暴れだったりというのを不透明要因にぶっこんできているのが特徴的。
『Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Euro area real GDP increased by 0.4%, quarter on quarter, in the second quarter of 2018, following growth at the same rate in the previous quarter.』
昨年の後半3四半期が0.7%で今年に入ってからは前半の2四半期が0.4%の成長ですな。
『Despite some moderation following the strong growth performance in 2017, the latest economic indicators and survey results overall confirm ongoing broad-based growth of the euro area economy. Our monetary policy measures continue to underpin domestic demand. Private consumption is supported by ongoing employment gains, which, in turn, partly reflect past labour market reforms, and by rising wages. Business investment is fostered by the favourable financing conditions, rising corporate profitability and solid demand. Housing investment remains robust. In addition, the expansion in global activity is expected to continue, supporting euro area exports.』
『This assessment is broadly reflected in the September 2018 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area. These projections foresee annual real GDP increasing by 2.0% in 2018, 1.8% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. Compared with the June 2018 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for real GDP growth has been revised down slightly for 2018 and 2019, mainly due to a somewhat weaker contribution from foreign demand.』
輸出の影響で成長率見通しが微妙に引き下げ。
『The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook can still be assessed as broadly balanced. At the same time, risks relating to rising protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial market volatility have gained more prominence recently.』
リスクの話はさっきあった通り。
『According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation was 2.0% in August 2018, down from 2.1% in July. On the basis of current futures prices for oil, annual rates of headline inflation are likely to hover around the current level for the remainder of the year. While measures of underlying inflation remain generally muted, they have been increasing from earlier lows. Domestic cost pressures are strengthening and broadening amid high levels of capacity utilisation and tightening labour markets, which is pushing up wage growth.』
『Uncertainty around the inflation outlook is receding. Looking ahead, underlying inflation is expected to pick up towards the end of the year and thereafter to increase gradually over the medium term, supported by our monetary policy measures, the continuing economic expansion and rising wage growth.』
物価に関しては今回「Uncertainty around the inflation outlook is receding」という一文をぶっこんで来まして(前回は物価に関する不確実性の記述無し)、物価の先行きにはしらっと自信ニキなところを示していまして、新興国や市場のボラティリティーとか入れながらもこちらのほうではしらっと自信ニキという割とチャーミングなことをしていますな。
[外部リンク] 12, 2018 What Do We Mean by Neutral and What Role Does It Play in Monetary Policy? Governor Lael Brainard At the Detroit Economic Club, Detroit, Michigan
・どうでも良い小ネタですが
最初の挨拶。
『It is a pleasure to be in Detroit. I started my career working here in the Motor City, and I have followed the fortunes of this area with interest ever since. A few years ago, I visited some of Detroit's neighborhoods with our local officials at a time when damage from the crisis was still pervasive. While challenges remain in many of the city's neighborhoods, since that time the metropolitan area overall has seen signs of a rebound in business activity and investment, and the unemployment rate has continued to trend downward, recently falling to 4.3 percent.1』
『This is similar to the nation's economy more broadly. While challenges remain for many, aggregate growth is strong, and the economy is meeting our full employment and inflation objectives. Given the outlook, it comes as no surprise that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been gradually raising interest rates from crisis-era lows and sees further gradual increases as likely to be appropriate in its most recent statement.2』
『Before discussing the outlook, it might be useful to first explore some concepts that are important in informing the path of rates.』
ということでお話が始まりますが。
・自然利子率の推計がどうしたこうしたという説明ですが・・・・・・・
最初が『What Is the Neutral Rate of Interest?』という小見出しで、定義の話をしているのですが、こちらでは、
『Focusing first on the "shorter-run" neutral rate, this does not stay fixed, but rather fluctuates along with important changes in economic conditions. For instance, legislation that increases the budget deficit through tax cuts and spending increases can be expected to generate tailwinds to domestic demand and thus to push up the shorter-run neutral interest rate. Heightened risk appetite among investors similarly can be expected to push up the shorter-run neutral rate. Conversely, many of the forces that contributed to the financial crisis--such as fear and uncertainty on the part of businesses and households--can be expected to lower the neutral rate of interest, as can declines in foreign demand for U.S. exports.』
『The longer-run federal funds rate estimated by FOMC participants in their Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) meets the definition of a longer-run equilibrium rate of interest.5 It is worth highlighting that the longer-run federal funds rate is the only neutral interest rate reported in the FOMC projections. But the shorter-run neutral rate, rather than the longer-run federal funds rate, is the relevant benchmark for assessing the near-term path of monetary policy in the presence of headwinds or tailwinds.』
てな話をしていまして、短期的な均衡金利と長期均衡金利のコンセプトを分けて説明していて、短期的な均衡金利は色々な条件で変化するのでそれに対応しつつ、長期均衡金利に関してはより構造的な話ですよああそれから長期均衡金利はSEPで示しているロンガーランのFF金利ですね、というようなお話をしていますが詳しい引用はパスしまして次の『Estimating the Neutral Rate of Interest』に。
『Similar to other equilibrium macroeconomic concepts such as potential gross domestic product (GDP) and the natural rate of unemployment, the shorter- and longer-run levels of the neutral rate are not directly observable, so they must be estimated or inferred from the movements of variables that are observed, such as market interest rates, inflation, the unemployment rate, and GDP.6』
直接計測できませんというのは順当。
『In recent years, considerable work has derived estimates of the longer-run equilibrium rate, in some cases using statistical techniques that can be thought of as capturing the highly persistent component of the neutral rate. The central tendency of those estimates suggests that the longer-run trend rate is in the range of 2.5 to 3.5 percent in nominal terms.7』
『This range lines up well with the most recent median estimate of the longer-run federal funds rate in the FOMC SEP, which is just below 3 percent. By these estimates, the longer-run neutral rate has fallen considerably from the estimated range in earlier decades of 4 to 5 percent.8』
でもって昔より下がりましたねああSEPで出してるのは3%ちょっと下ですよ。
『Turning to the shorter-run neutral rate, although the estimates are model dependent and uncertain, we can make some general inferences about its recent evolution that are largely independent of the details of specific models.9』
短期的な均衡金利推計のお話です。
『Estimates suggest the shorter-run neutral rate tends to be cyclical, falling in recessions and rising during expansions, and our current expansion appears to be no exception.10』
景気循環に応じて上下するもんだそうな。
『Last year, the unemployment rate returned to pre-crisis levels, which required real interest rates that were below zero for nearly 10 years.11 This year, the unemployment rate has fallen further, and job market gains have gathered strength, at the same time that the federal funds rate has increased. This combination suggests that the short-run neutral interest rate likely has also increased.』
なんちゅうか理屈の為の理屈みたいな説明ですな。
『If, instead, the neutral rate had remained constant as the federal funds rate increased, we would have expected to see labor market gains slow. That inference is consistent with the formal model estimates, which indicate that the shorter-run neutral rate has gone up as the expansion has advanced.』
『This is also suggested by the observation that overall financial conditions, as measured by a variety of indexes, have remained quite accommodative during a period when the federal funds rate has been moving higher.』
金融環境も緩和的なままなのでまさにそうでしょう、だそうな。
・長期均衡金利以上に利上げしようというコンセプトががっつり登場してきます
『In the latest FOMC SEP median path, by the end of next year, the federal funds rate is projected to rise to a level that exceeds the longer-run federal funds rate during a time when real GDP growth is projected to exceed its longer-run pace and unemployment continues to fall.』
今年ではなく来年年末のSEP予想の話が来ましたな。
『The shift from headwinds to tailwinds may be expected to push the shorter-run neutral rate above its longer-run trend in the next year or two, just as it fell below the longer-run equilibrium rate following the financial crisis.』
経済が向かい風から追い風になるので長期均衡金利以上の政策金利になりまっせ。
『Notably, the sizable fiscal stimulus in the pipeline is likely to continue to bolster the short-run neutral rate over the next two years.』
そこに財政刺激も出てきますからそらもう更に上振れですよ、だそうな。
『The relatively rich level of current asset valuations relative to historical levels is another factor that could push the short-run neutral rate above its longer-run value.』
『As was noted in the recent FOMC minutes, corporate credit spreads are very narrow, and equity valuations are elevated relative to historical patterns, even after taking into account the low level of interest rates.12 Business and consumer confidence is high, which is also consistent with a higher shorter-run neutral rate of interest.』
って思いっきり社債スプレッドだの株価だのが出てきていて、こいつらのバリュエーションが高いことは均衡金利を引き上げる効果があるってそれ姐さん思いっきり資産バブル警戒利上げの話をしてるじゃないですかやだー、というところまでで『Estimating the Neutral Rate of Interest』の小見出し終了。
・見通しについて
次の小見出しが『The Outlook』ですがこちらは簡単に引用します。
『So far, the data on inflation remain encouraging, providing little signal of an outbreak of inflation to the upside, on the one hand, and some reassurance that underlying trend inflation may be moving closer to 2 percent, on the other. Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices have increased 2 percent over the past 12 months, consistent with the FOMC's objective. Survey measures of inflation expectations remain stable in the lower end of the historical ranges, while market-based measures of inflation compensation remain stable at levels above the lows seen in 2016. With various measures of underlying trend inflation having come in below our 2 percent objective over a sustained period, it is important to sustainably achieve inflation around 2 percent to prevent an erosion of underlying trend inflation the next time the economy faces a downturn and the federal funds rate hits its lower limit.14』
『The past few times unemployment fell to levels as low as those projected over the next year, signs of overheating showed up in financial-sector imbalances rather than in accelerating inflation.』
でもって次に来るのがファイナンシャルインバランスキタコレなのでして。
『The Federal Reserve's assessment suggests that financial vulnerabilities are building, which might be expected after a long period of economic expansion and very low interest rates. Rising risks are notable in the corporate sector, where low spreads and loosening credit terms are mirrored by rising indebtedness among corporations that could be vulnerable to downgrades in the event of unexpected adverse developments.』
『Leveraged lending is again on the rise; spreads on leveraged loans and the securitized products backed by those loans are low, and the Board's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices suggests that underwriting standards for leveraged loans may be declining to levels not seen since 2005.』
『Trade policy has introduced uncertainty. Growth in Europe and Japan has moderated from its strong pace of last year, and political risks have reemerged in countries such as Italy. China is contending with deleveraging and deceleration as well as a challenging trade environment. As U.S. growth has pulled away from foreign growth, in part reflecting fiscal policy divergence, expectations of monetary policy divergence strengthened, contributing to upward pressure on the dollar earlier this year.』
『The resulting currency adjustments are compounding challenges faced by some emerging market economies, along with a complicated and unpredictable trade environment and gradually increasing interest rates. Although capital flow reversals have been contained to several notably vulnerable countries so far, I am attentive to the risk that a pullback from emerging markets could broaden.』
『Over the next year or two, barring unexpected developments, continued gradual increases in the federal funds rate are likely to be appropriate to sustain full employment and inflation near its objective. With government stimulus in the pipeline providing tailwinds to demand over the next two years, it appears reasonable to expect the shorter-run neutral rate to rise somewhat higher than the longer-run neutral rate.』
キタコレ。
『Further out, the policy path will depend on how the economy evolves.』
何かその直前までキタコレな長期均衡水準以上に上げまっせという話をして最後は「depend on how the economy evolves」ってのも何だかなあという説明ではありますが。
『These developments raise the prospect that, at some point, the Committee's setting of the federal funds rate will exceed current estimates of the longer-run federal funds rate.』
『Indeed, the median projection in the SEP has this property. This raises the possibility of a flattening or inversion of the yield curve in the event that term premiums do not rise from their currently very low levels.15』
イールドカーブの話が出てきましたな。
『Like many of you, I am attentive to the historical observation that inversions of the yield curve between the 3-month and 10-year Treasury rates have had a relatively reliable track record of preceding recessions in the United States.16』
と言いつつも・・・・・・・・・・
『But unlike these historical episodes, today the current 10-year yield is very low at around 3 percent, which is well below the average of 6-1/4 percent during the decades before the crisis.』
ほうほうそれでそれで?
『Part of the reason the 10-year Treasury yield is unusually low is that market expectations of interest rates in the longer run are themselves quite low, as discussed earlier. Another important reason the 10-year Treasury yield is very low is that the term premium has fallen to levels that are very low by historical standards.』
出たなタームプレミアム。
『According to one estimate from Federal Reserve staff, the term premium has been slightly negative until very recently and remains very low.17 By contrast, it was close to 100 basis points when the spread between the 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields was at its peak of 325 basis points in early 2010. This may temper somewhat the conclusions that we can draw from historical yield curve relationships characterized by a substantially higher term premium. If the term premium remains very low, any given amount of monetary policy tightening will lead to an inversion sooner so that even a modest tightening that might not have led to an inversion historically could do so today.』
『One reason the term premium may be lower than in the past is the changed correlation between stock and bond returns, likely associated with changes in expected inflation outcomes.18 The other driver of the low level of the term premium globally is the asset purchases of central banks in several major economies.19 In this case, if the term premium rises as the effect of asset purchase programs diminishes, the effect may be to forestall an inversion of the long-dated yield curve.』
『It is worth highlighting that the flattening yield curve suggested by the SEP median is associated with a policy path calibrated to sustain full employment and inflation around target. So, while I will keep a close watch on the yield curve as an important signal on financial conditions, I will want to interpret yield curve movements as one of several considerations informing appropriate policy.』
ということで、イールドカーブに関しては「as an important signal on financial conditions」としてみるそうな。
『Indeed, the possibility that the projected policy path may have unintended consequences is one of the compelling reasons for raising interest rates gradually. The gradual pace of interest rate increases anticipated in the SEP median path should give us some time to assess the effects of our policies as we proceed.』
『While the information available to us today suggests that a gradual path is appropriate, we would not hesitate to act decisively if circumstances were to change. If, for example, underlying inflation were to move abruptly and unexpectedly higher, it might be appropriate to depart from the gradual path. Stable inflation expectations is one of the key achievements of central banks in the past several decades, and we would defend it vigorously.』
『Our challenge is to sustain full employment and inflation at 2 percent, which is likely to warrant continued gradual increases in the federal funds rate. With fiscal stimulus in the pipeline and financial conditions supportive of growth, the shorter-run neutral interest rate is likely to move up somewhat further, and it may well surpass the longer-run equilibrium rate for some period.』
『Beyond the near term, how much the neutral rate is likely to rise and whether it flattens or moderates further out will depend on a variety of developments--such as whether fiscal stimulus is extended or expires, whether foreign and trade risks grow or recede, and whether financial system vulnerabilities extend.』
『As such, the gradual pace of rate increases implicit in the SEP's median policy path incorporates a degree of caution, which is appropriate, in my view.』
ニューヨーク連銀のホームページ [外部リンク] Import Tariffs Help Reduce Trade Deficits?』などという素敵な文字列があるのでそこをポチっとなとしますと、
[外部リンク] Street Economics AUGUST 13, 2018 Do Import Tariffs Help Reduce Trade Deficits? Mary Amiti, Mi Dai, Robert C. Feenstra, and John Romalis
まあ先月の物件なのは勘弁して頂くとしまして、これはまたチャーミングなお題の小文ですな。
ちなみにこちらのページは、右の方に『About the Blog』って説明がありますが、
『Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from New York Fed economists working at the intersection of research and policy. Launched in 2011, the blog takes its name from the Bank’s headquarters at 33 Liberty Street in Manhattan’s Financial District.』
名前は住所から取ったんですね。
『The editors are Michael Fleming, Andrew Haughwout, Thomas Klitgaard, and Asani Sarkar, all economists in the Bank’s Research Group.』
『The views expressed are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the position of the New York Fed or the Federal Reserve System.』
まあこの辺はお約束。
ということでお題の内容を鑑賞しませう。
『Import tariffs are on the rise in the United States, with a long list of new tariffs imposed in the last few months-25 percent on steel imports, 10 percent on aluminum, and 25 percent on $50 billion of goods from China-and possibly more to come.』
輸入関税バンバン来るでという状況ですが・・・・・・・・・
『One of the objectives of these new tariffs is to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, which stood at $568.4 billion in 2017 (2.9 percent of GDP). The fact that the United States imports far more than it exports is viewed by some as unfair, so the idea is to try to reduce the amount that the nation imports from the rest of the world.』
『While more costly imports are likely to reduce the quantity and value of imports into the United States, the story does not stop there, because we cannot presume that the value of exports will remain unchanged.』
そら報復関税来ますからねえ。
『In this post, we argue that U.S. exports will also fall, not only because of other countries’ retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports, but also because the costs for U.S. firms producing goods for export will rise and make U.S. exports less competitive on the world market.』
『One way to see that higher import tariffs will reduce exports is to look at the experience of countries that have changed their import tariff rates. China reduced its import tariffs when it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001.』
『Although China had lowered its tariffs prior to that time, in 2000 they were still fairly high, averaging 15 percent. By 2006, this average tariff rate had fallen by 40 percent, to 9 percent.』
2000年には15%だったのですが2006年には9%にしたそうな。
『We can see from the chart below that the growth rates of both China’s exports and its imports increased enormously (more than 25 percent on average per year) following its WTO accession, with both growth rates more than doubling in the five years after China joined the WTO, compared with the five years prior to joining.』
2001年を100にした輸出入のチャートを見ると確かにこれは凄いです。
『Of course, we cannot tell from this chart what caused the increase in exports. Many reforms were taking place in China at that time in addition to trade liberalization.』
ただ他の要因もありますよね、というはそらそうですな。
『In order to identify the effect of lower import tariffs on China’s exports, recent research has turned to using highly disaggregated Chinese firm-level data with information on all the products a firm imports and exports.』
ほほう。
『The research shows that between 2000 and 2006 (the period for which detailed firm-level data are available), China’s imports increased and so did its exports.』
『Focusing on China’s exports to the United States, our research paper (“How Did China’s WTO Entry Affect U.S. Prices?”) shows that by lowering its own tariffs on imported inputs, China reduced its production costs and increased productivity, enabling Chinese firms to enter the U.S. export market and compete with other firms.』
「“How Did China’s WTO Entry Affect U.S. Prices?”」ってリサーチペーパーを見に行く方が吉のようですが、 [外部リンク] a fall in production costs, Chinese firms charged lower prices on goods exported to the United States and increased their U.S. market shares. A large part of the market-share gains stemmed from new varieties of goods exported by Chinese firms entering the U.S. export market. 』
ということで、
『The link between lower input tariffs and stronger export growth can be seen in the chart below. Chinese firm-level exports to the U.S. are aggregated into two groups: the group of Chinese industries that experienced large tariff cuts on imported inputs (specifically, average tariff cuts above the median, equal to 4.6 percentage points or 43 percent), and the group of industries that experienced input tariff cuts below the median, with both indexed to 100 in 2001.』
『We can clearly see that Chinese exports to the United States grew much more rapidly in industries that experienced the largest drops in input tariffs. 』
「can be seen in the chart below」ってのはURL先見に行ってくらはいと存じますが、こちらでは輸入関税の引き下げが平均より大きかった関連産業と平均より少なかった関連産業の輸出がどう延びているかというのを出しているようで、輸入関税下がる→関連商品の生産コストが下がる→輸出競争力が高まる→ウマー、ということになっているそうな、まあ微妙にホンマカイナ感はあるのだが、直観的にはまあそうかなと。
『The evidence from China’s experience strongly suggests that a country that increases its tariffs is likely to not only reduce its imports but also reduce its exports.』
『Many large exporters are also large importers that depend on imported inputs for production of their exports. Even if U.S. exporters switch to domestically produced inputs their costs will still rise, because competing domestic suppliers will be able to increase their markups in the industries that are protected by higher tariffs.』
『For example, with a 25 percent steel tariff, domestic steel producers can increase their markups and still stay competitive. It is the U.S. exporters that rely on these inputs that will be adversely affected. And this is even before we take into account the cost to exporters from the retaliation by other countries.』
『While we cannot predict the size of the trade deficit, what seems clear from our analysis is that import tariffs will reduce both imports and exports.』
というイイハナシダナーな結論な訳ですが、そら最後にディスクレーマー入りますわ。
『Disclaimer
The views expressed in this post are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.』
ちなみにその前の奴がこんなので、まあ面白そうなネタを小文で掲載しているので面白そうですな。 [外部リンク] 08, 2018 How Do the Fed’s MBS Holdings Affect the Economy? Antoine Martin and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
[外部リンク] Updated: 09/06/18 Back to the Future of Monetary Policy1 A speech prepared for September 3, 2018, for the Central Bank of Argentina Money and Banking Conference, Dealing with Monetary Policy Normalization, in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
『This lesson is important to remember because in our current environment of lower trend growth and low equilibrium real interest rates, the effective lower bound looms closer than should feel comfortable. Despite our best efforts, we will likely have to resort to alternative policies again in the future.』
『Now, having said all of that, after a protracted period of slow and uneven progress, over the past few years the U.S. economy has finally returned to a path with strong growth fundamentals and inflation closer to target on a sustainable basis. Monetary policy needs to be recalibrated accordingly, and this is well under way in the U.S. We are well past the time when out-of-the-box thinking was needed to provide monetary accommodation, and we are pretty much back to monetary policy that is conventional, standard, mainstream-whatever you want to call it-with the important caveat of a higher risk of hitting the ELB.』
次の『A description of conventional monetary policymaking』は手抜きですっ飛ばして『Monetary policymaking is finally returning to normal』というのを見ますと、
『Today, long after the financial crisis and the Great Recession, we find ourselves stepping back into this role of supporting actor: With the unemployment rate at 3.9 percent and core inflation at 2 percent, our job is to facilitate the long-run, sustainable achievement of maximum employment and price stability.』
マンデート達成大勝利宣言キタコレ。
『Given the outlook today, I believe this will entail moving policy first toward a neutral setting and then likely a bit beyond neutral to help transition the economy onto a long-run sustainable growth path with inflation at our symmetric 2 percent target.』
大勝利なので・・・・・・・・・・
『Of course, we may need to tighten somewhat further if currently unexpected tailwinds emerge that push the economy well beyond sustainable growth and employment levels, potentially leading to unacceptably high inflation beyond our symmetric objective.』
unexpected tailwinds(トランプ財政とかでしょうし、ド本命は賃金上昇でしょう)が来たら「need to tighten somewhat further」来ました。
『For example, we might discover that we underestimated the forward momentum imparted by earlier monetary accommodation. Another possibility might be that we experience greater-than-expected fiscal impetus from the recent tax cuts and spending increases in the U.S. that is not accompanied by gains in the economy’s underlying productive potential.』
物価のモメンタムやら財政の影響を弱めに見ている可能性だってあるから注意しなきゃとな。
『Conversely, the emergence of currently unexpected headwinds could dictate a shallower policy path.』
ここまで強気ネタぶっこんでいるので中和剤投下。
『One example would be if continued uncertainties over the international trade situation generated adverse effects on business sentiment and spending. Another downside risk is that the firming in inflation expectations could stall out before expectations are clearly centered about 2 percent-as such an alignment is a necessary condition for sustainable achievement of our symmetric 2 percent inflation objective.』
