[外部リンク] CNBC's full interview with New York Fed President John 10:13 AM ET Fri, 21 Dec 2018 New York Federal Reserve President John Williams sits down with CNBC's Steve Liesman to speak on the economy and the Fed's decision to raise rates for the fourth time in 2018.
同じ時間のニュース記事の短い奴(利上げに関する部分だけネタにしている分ですな) [外部リンク] Fed President: 2019 outlook may change, rate hikes not guaranteed 10:17 AM ET Fri, 21 Dec 2018 CNBC's Steve Liesman speaks to New York Federal Reserve President John Williams about the potential for interest rate hikes in 2019.
[外部リンク] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate.』(今回) 『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate.』(前回)
前回と一致じゃの。
『Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low.』(今回) 『Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined.』(前回)
『Household spending has continued to grow strongly, while growth of business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.』(今回)
『Household spending has continued to grow strongly, while growth of business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.』(前回)
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.』(今回) 『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.』(前回)
これは話のマクラのようなもんで不変。
『The Committee judges that some further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term.』(今回)
『The Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term.』(前回)
「will be consistent with」以下の文言は同じ(というかこれもマクラみたいなもん)なので問題はその前の部分になりますが、アヘアヘドメスティック中学高校英語おじさんのアタクシが読むと、前回のは「FOMCは更なる緩やかなFF金利の引き上げが〜であると期待する」となっていて、今回のは「FOMCは更なる少々の緩やかなFF金利の引き上げが〜であると判断する」となっていて、まあこの「some」ってのは数回なので今後も数回は上げますよとはゆうたものの、まあそこまでは上げませんとはゆうてまして、ただ一方で市場ちゃんがどこかでもしかしてと思っていた早期利上げ打ち止めを強く示唆するものでもないという感じでしょうかね、よー知らんけど。
『The Committee judges that risks to the economic outlook are roughly balanced, but will continue to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook.』(今回) 『Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.』(前回)
でもって「and assess their implications for the economic outlook」っていう文言は要するに今後の金融政策(というか金利の上げ下げ)運営においては、よりデータディペンデント(方便としてのデータディペンデントではなくて、むしろ「予断を持たずに出たとこ勝負」という方がニュアンスとして近い)になって行いますよって話をしているんだと思います。
『In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2?1/2 percent.』(今回) 『In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2 to 2-1/4 percent.』(前回)
まあそういうこと。
・第4パラグラフ:全文一致ですな
『In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.』(今回)
『In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.』(前回)
ご覧の通りの全文一致。
・第5パラグラフ:全員賛成ですかそうですか
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.』(今回)
『Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Jerome H. Powell, Chairman; John C. Williams, Vice Chairman; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.』(前回)
『At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.』
『Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the net purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) will end in December 2018. At the same time, the Governing Council is enhancing its forward guidance on reinvestment.』
『Accordingly, the Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.』
[外部リンク] CONFERENCE Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 13 December 2018
とりあえず朝の時点ではまだQAは無いのでINTRODUCTORY STATEMENTだけですにゃ。
『Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by the President of the Eurogroup, Mr Centeno.』
これはただの挨拶。
『Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We continue to expect them to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.』
これは金利の部分、決定事項にあるように今回は変更なし。
『Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, our net purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) will end in December 2018. At the same time, we are enhancing our forward guidance on reinvestment. Accordingly, we intend to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when we start raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.』
これはAPPの部分、決定事項にあることをそのまま発言。
『While incoming information has been weaker than expected, reflecting softer external demand but also some country and sector-specific factors, the underlying strength of domestic demand continues to underpin the euro area expansion and gradually rising inflation pressures.』
『This supports our confidence that the sustained convergence of inflation to our aim will proceed and will be maintained even after the end of our net asset purchases.』
ということなのでAPPプログラムは終了ですよ、だそうで。
『At the same time, uncertainties related to geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial market volatility remain prominent.』
『Significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed to support the further build-up of domestic price pressures and headline inflation developments over the medium term. Our forward guidance on the key ECB interest rates, reinforced by the reinvestments of the sizeable stock of acquired assets, continues to provide the necessary degree of monetary accommodation for the sustained convergence of inflation to our aim. In any event, the Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation continues to move towards the Governing Council’s inflation aim in a sustained manner.』
[外部リンク] information, while somewhat weaker than expected, remains overall consistent with an ongoing broad-based expansion of the euro area economy and gradually rising inflation pressures. The underlying strength of the economy continues to support our confidence that the sustained convergence of inflation to our aim will proceed and will be maintained even after a gradual winding-down of our net asset purchases. 』(この部分直上URL先となる10月25日ECB定例理事会後のINTRODUCTORY STATEMENTより、以下同様)
10月も「somewhat weaker than expected」で今回も「weaker than expected」なので、前回よりも今回の方が言い訳が入っているのが分かるかと思います。
『At the same time, uncertainties relating to protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial market volatility remain prominent.』
『Significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed to support the further build-up of domestic price pressures and headline inflation developments over the medium term. This support will continue to be provided by the net asset purchases until the end of the year, by the sizeable stock of acquired assets and the associated reinvestments, and by our enhanced forward guidance on the key ECB interest rates. In any event, the Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments as appropriate to ensure that inflation continues to move towards the Governing Council’s inflation aim in a sustained manner.』(ここまで10月ECB定例理事会後のNTRODUCTORY STATEMENTより)
「Significant monetary policy stimulus is still needed」以下の部分はおおむね同じ話をしていて、ただまあAPPが終了したので今回は資産規模維持のフォワードガイダンスが緩和効果みたいな話がかわりにぶっこまれて来ましたという辺りに変化はありますが、基本的な話の筋は同じです。
『Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis.』
はい。
『Euro area real GDP increased by 0.2%, quarter on quarter, in the third quarter of 2018, following growth of 0.4% in the previous two quarters. The latest data and survey results have been weaker than expected, reflecting a diminishing contribution from external demand and some country and sector-specific factors. While some of these factors are likely to unwind, this may suggest some slower growth momentum ahead.』
最初の所でもあった「weaker than expected」となった言い訳。これらの言い訳のいくつかは「likely to unwind」なんですが、全部じゃなくて「some of these factors」なので先行きの成長モメンタムは「some slower」となりますぜというお話ですな。
『At the same time, domestic demand, also backed by our accommodative monetary policy stance, continues to underpin the economic expansion in the euro area.』
ほうほう。
『The strength of the labour market, as reflected in ongoing employment gains and rising wages, still supports private consumption. Moreover, business investment is benefiting from domestic demand, favourable financing conditions and improving balance sheets. Residential investment remains robust. In addition, the expansion in global activity is still expected to continue, supporting euro area exports, although at a slower pace.』
『This assessment is broadly reflected in the December 2018 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area. These projections foresee annual real GDP increasing by 1.9% in 2018, 1.7% in 2019, 1.7% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021. Compared with the September 2018 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, the outlook for real GDP growth has been revised slightly down in 2018 and 2019.』
『The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook can still be assessed as broadly balanced. However, the balance of risks is moving to the downside owing to the persistence of uncertainties related to geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial market volatility.』
『The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook can still be assessed as broadly balanced. At the same time, risks relating to protectionism, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and financial market volatility remain prominent.』(10月ECB定例理事会後のNTRODUCTORY STATEMENTより)
『Euro area annual HICP inflation increased to 2.1% in September 2018, from 2.0% in August, reflecting mainly higher energy and food price inflation. On the basis of current futures prices for oil, annual rates of headline inflation are likely to hover around the current level over the coming months.』
物価はしばらくエネルギー食糧要因で堅調推移の見込み。
『While measures of underlying inflation remain generally muted, they have been increasing from earlier lows. Domestic cost pressures are strengthening and broadening amid high levels of capacity utilisation and tightening labour markets. Looking ahead, underlying inflation is expected to pick up towards the end of the year and to increase further over the medium term, supported by our monetary policy measures, the ongoing economic expansion and rising wage growth.』
これは流行る。 [外部リンク] 07, 2018 Assessing Financial Stability over the Cycle Governor Lael Brainard At the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.
『If we learned anything from this experience, it is that we must be especially vigilant to safeguard the resilience of our financial system in good times when vulnerabilities may be building. That is why the Federal Reserve actively monitors the potential vulnerabilities to the financial system. Last week, for the first time, we released our assessment in the Financial Stability Report.2』
『Today I will offer a brief summary of the outlook, highlight areas where I see financial imbalances building, and touch on the implications for policy.』
「implications for policy」であってマネタリーポリシーではないのでファイナンシャルスタビリティに問題が起こりそうだからBISビューで利上げしろみたいな話は出てこない仕様になっておりますのであらかじめ申し添えます。
・米国経済に関しては基本的に強い見方を示しています
『Sustaining the Expansion』って小見出しから始まる部分が経済物価見通しに関するお話です。
『Domestic economic momentum has been strong, as evidenced by the labor market.』
米国経済のモメンタム(なんかどこかで聞いた言葉じゃの)は労働市場に示されるように強いそうな。
『With the November data, monthly payroll gains have averaged 170,000 over the past 3 months, well above the pace necessary to absorb new entrants into the labor force. The share of the prime-age population (people ages 25 to 54) that is working is closing in on its pre-crisis level. By most measures, wages have accelerated over the past year and are now growing around 3 percent, the highest level since the crisis. These are welcome developments.』
でもってこれ12月7日の講演なので11月雇用統計の話をしれっとぶっこんでいますが、「3か月平均で17万超え」という言い方で「well above the pace」とか言ってて、しかもその他の数値も強いとかぶっこんでいるのがほほーという所で、まあ執行部見解はそういう感じなんでしょうな。
『While the most recent reading on core personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, inflation ticked down, indicators of underlying trend inflation remain encouraging overall, providing little signal of an outbreak of inflation to the upside, on the one hand, and reassurance that underlying trend inflation may be close to our target of 2 percent, on the other (figure 1).』
『The economy has grown 3 percent over the past year, and there are good reasons to expect growth to remain solid next year, supported by the strong underlying momentum in domestic demand. Consumer spending looks to be robust going into the fourth quarter, and ongoing gains in income and employment provide positive fundamentals. In addition, business investment should be solid, even with recent declines in oil prices. Sizable fiscal stimulus has provided an important boost to demand this year and will likely contribute somewhat further next year, given the usual lags in outlays and in the effects of tax cuts on business and household spending.』
『The most likely path for the economy is positive, although some tailwinds that have provided a boost are fading, and we may face some crosscurrents. The global growth that provided a strong tailwind going into this year has moderated. The earlier strong growth in Europe and Japan appears to be softening toward trend. China is shifting to an accommodative policy stance to contend with a challenging trade environment and lagged effects from its earlier tightening.』
『Here at home, the impetus to growth from fiscal policy is likely to fade going into 2020. And after being exceptionally accommodative, financial conditions have tightened in recent months. Financial conditions are still supportive of growth by many measures (figure 2), but less so than last year.』
『There are risks on both sides of the economy's likely path.』
ほう。
『In Europe, there are risks associated with deliberations over Italy's fiscal and debt trajectory and the United Kingdom's deliberations on the Brexit deal.』
イタリア予算だのブリクジットだのというのは順当。
『Here at home, we hear from businesses that the uncertainty associated with trade policy and the implications for supply chains may weigh on business capital spending. Although it is reasonable to expect fiscal spending to be extended around current levels in real terms after the Bipartisan Budget Act expires, we cannot rule out that fiscal policy could become a headwind in 2020.』
貿易戦争とそれによるサプライチェーンの影響とか、財政刺激効果の減衰とかまあこの辺も順当。
『The risks are two-sided.』
でこの後がちょっとほほーと思ったんですが、
『Business contacts report difficulties finding qualified workers and increased costs associated with inputs, tariffs, and transportation, along with somewhat greater ability to pass through those increases to consumer prices.』
『Despite this, however, inflation remains muted overall. At 3.7 percent, the unemployment rate is at its lowest level in 49 years, and payrolls have been growing well above the pace that is consistent with labor market stabilization.』
『Historically, the few periods when resource utilization has been similarly tight have seen elevated risks of either accelerating inflation or financial imbalances.』
ここらで金融不均衡ネタが顔を出してくる。
『Our goal now is to sustain the expansion by maintaining the economy around full employment and inflation around target. The gradual path of increases in the federal funds rate has served us well by giving us time to assess the effects of policy as we have proceeded. That approach remains appropriate in the near term, although the policy path increasingly will depend on how the outlook evolves.』
ということで目先の現世利益に関する利上げ云々の話はここにちょろっと出ているという感じですが、ゆっくり利上げしているから金利引き上げの効果を見ながら対応する余裕があって誠に結構という認識で、「That approach remains appropriate in the near term,」と言っていてこの「in the near term」がどの程度のニアータームなのかワカランチ会長ではありますが、1年とかいうような長さではなさそうな感じもしまして、しかも続きが「although the policy path increasingly will depend on how the outlook evolves」となっていますので、まあこれは来年4回まで利上げするのではなくて、来年2回か3回か(2回上げれば実効FF金利は3%に近いところまで行くのでそれで打ち止めでエエンチャウノとは思いますがあくまでも個人の感想ですし、株がホイホイ上がってくればもうちょっと利上げすると思うし、もちろん上記のような企業の価格設定行動からコストのパススルーモードになったらこれまた利上げじゃろとか思いますけど)というようなのを念頭に置いた話になっていますな、という所です。
次が『Assessing Vulnerabilities over the Cycle』という小見出しでして、最初の所はほほうそうですかと思うけどいまさら何をおっしゃるやらというのも無くはない。
『The last several times resource utilization approached levels similar to today, signs of overheating showed up in financial-sector imbalances rather than in accelerating inflation.』
『In contrast to the past, the Federal Reserve now has a systematic forward-looking approach to identifying increases in financial vulnerabilities. This monitoring is the focus of regular Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee discussions. Last week, the Board released its first Financial Stability Report to help inform the public and promote transparency and accountability as we carry out our financial stability responsibilities.』
『The run-up in corporate debt has brought the ratio of debt to assets close to its highest level in two decades on an overall basis, and this is also true for speculative-grade and unrated firms (figure 7). And whereas previously, mostly high-earning firms with relatively low leverage were taking on additional debt, analysis of detailed balance sheet information indicates that, over the past year, firms with high leverage, high interest expense ratios, and low earnings and cash holdings have been increasing their debt loads the most.』
『The following is the unofficial transcript of a CNBC interview with Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan and CNBC's Steve Liesman on CNBC's "Squawk Box" (M-F 6AM ? 9AM) today, Thursday, December 6th. The following is a link to video of the full interview on CNBC.com: [外部リンク] transcript」なので発言の重みとしては連銀公式サイトに出てくる講演などよりは格落ちしますけど。
・2年10年のイールドカーブの件
一発目のQ&Aがこの件でして、
『STEVE LIESMAN: I mean, you're -- It's not just great you're here on day when the market's down 400, we've got major questions about the outlook for the Fed, but you're also the guy to have because you're a former Goldman guy. So tell us about the message that you're getting from markets here; the recent selloff and especially the 2/10 spread, which is -- I'm saying it's up a little bit this morning, but crazy saying it's up twelve basis points between the two. What's the message about the markets, Robert?』
『ROBERT KAPLAN: Well, let me start with the 2/10 spread. And you've heard me say this and I'd emphasize what I've been saying: the short end of the curve has been acting to what the fed is saying. The longer end of the curve tells me that expectations of future growth are sluggish.』
『And what I see in the stock market, and I obviously am a student and have worked with companies my entire career and am a student of earnings reports, I'm seeing input costs are rising. Tariffs are a part of it, but it's not the only part of it. And companies -- many of them are struggling to pass on those cost increases to their customers. And you're seeing margin erosion. And you're also seeing deceleration of expectations for next year's earnings growth which are off a high base.』
企業のコスト増大(関税も含む)が中々パススルー出来ないという指摘をしていますな。
『And so, when you put all of that together, I just think there's a lot more uncertainty. And it's very consistent with what I hear from companies I talk to and what we see in our surveys. And I think the implications for me and my job as a central banker, I think getting to 2, to 2.25, I've had a lot of confidence that we should be moving along. I think at this stage, you're going to hear me be much more cautious and counsel patience.』
ということで早速結論としてFEDは「much more cautious and counsel patience」と来ました。
『I think there's more uncertainty, global growth's decelerating. I'm seeing interest rates showing some weakness. It's too soon to say what to make of it. But I think one of the key tools we have with Central Bank is patience, and I think we ought to be using that tool.』
「one of the key tools we have with Central Bank is patience」とかハト派丸出しキタコレではあります。
・中立金利に近づいた時の政策運営に関して
次の質疑(というか会話)。
『STEVE LIESMAN: Robert, I want to give you some credit because you were talking back in mid-October about getting to the range of neutral, before the leadership at the board was talking about the range of neutral. Are we at neutral now possibly or how far below it? I mean, do you still think we need to get there?』
『ROBERT KAPLAN: So, neutral is by its nature imprecise and uncertain --』
『STEVE LIESMAN: Sure. Sure.』
なぜそこで合いの手が入る。
『ROBERT KAPLAN: -- and you're not going to see it on your screen. So I think the range at the FMOC and our longer run rate is somewhere between 2.5 to 3.5. I'm at the lower end of that range. And so, my guess is we're probably a little bit below neutral, but we're approaching it. We'll know in hindsight where neutral was. But I think normalizing monetary policy was always going to be challenging and I think we're in the stage of this process where you're going to hear me shorten up on the prognostications and be much more vigilant as to what's going on in the economy. But particularly, not just the data, but what the outlook is, and what the markets are saying about the outlook and what companies are saying. And right now, I'm just seeing a high level of uncertainty. And I think it's a factor in my thinking.』
つーことで、どこで止めるかというとさすがに今止めるという話ではなくて12月利上げはするんでしょうが、その後に関しては「normalizing monetary policy was always going to be challenging」でして、中立金利のレンジ2.5-3.5に差し掛かってくるので今後は出てきているデータというよりも見通しベースで判断すべきだし、見通しの中には市場が示すような先行き見通しもみろ、という話をしているので、「データディペンデント」というのと微妙なニュアンスの違い(実際に出てくる行動にどういう差がでるのかは微妙だけど)がございますなという感じを受けます。
・ペイシャントは連発するが景気は減速程度で成長はするとみている
そらまあそうじゃなかったら利下げ提案という話になりますが、次の質疑はこんな話。
『STEVE LIESMAN: Robert, I've got to be direct about this, only because we're coming up quick on the meeting, and you guys are going to enter a blackout period where you won't talk at all.』
『ROBERT KAPLAN: Right.』
『STEVE LIESMAN: And I know one thing you don't want to happen is for the market to be mispriced going into the meeting. But here we are with a 76% probability of a rate hike in December. Is that too high?』
なんちゅう露骨な。
『ROBERT KAPLAN: You've talked to me enough to know that I'm not going to comment on the market probabilities.』
『STEVE LIESMAN: I know, but I have to go right at it, Robert.』
ワロタ。
『ROBERT KAPLAN: And I would just say my comment would be: I think we ought to be very gradual and patient here. Inflation, in my judgment, isn't running away from us. The Dallas Trim Mean, which we just published over the last week, shows muted levels of inflation growth on core inflation -- our reading of it. So I think we have the luxury of patience. And I'm not going to judge or predict what we're going to do in the December meeting. Obviously, I'll have a strong point of view going into that meeting. But I think we ought to be patient. There's a good possibility, and I'm very attune to the possibility, if not the probability, that the economy is going to look very different in the first half of 2019 than it does today, because fiscal stimulus is waning and we've raised rates eight times over the last 2-1/2, 3 years. So I think all of that means we ought to shorten up on our assessments and be willing to be very patient.』
『ROBERT KAPLAN: Yeah. Well, our own forecast at the Dallas Fed is you'll see growth move down from 2 to 2.5 next year. We're -- I'm not predicting and we're not predicting a recession. We're just saying that the fiscal stimulus will fade somewhat. And back to the job growth numbers: job growth numbers have been very strong, which tells me and it tell us that there's been more - you know, more women are entering the workforce and I think the data shows high school and less. People are coming off of disability. But the demographic trends in this country, the aging trend suggests workforce growth is going to slow. The big and ponderable for the next year is: is productivity growth going to jump more than we expect, but I'm a little skeptical about that. So --』
『STEVE LIESMAN: Okay.』
『ROBERT KAPLAN: I don't think it's going to be a bad year in 2019. But I think growth will be slower.
ということで別に景気の大幅な減速とかを見ている訳ではない。
『ROBERT KAPLAN: And I think these uncertainties we've talked about, we have to watch very carefully. And that's why I'm just counseling patience, as we assess all of this information.』
11月30日なのでだいぶ証文の出し遅れ感が高いですが。 [外部リンク] Policy Strategies for a Low-Neutral-Interest-Rate World November 30, 2018 John C. Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer Remarks at the 80th Plenary Meeting of the Group of Thirty, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City
『In my remarks, I will focus on the following question: What long-run monetary policy strategy is best suited to anchor inflation expectations, foster price stability, and promote maximum employment?』
ロングランの政策ストラテジーをどないしましょうかという話です。
『I emphasize the phrase “long-run” because I will focus on the features of a systematic policy framework, rather than tactical policy decisions. This topic is not only of academic interest: As was recently announced, the Federal Reserve is embarking on a review of its long-run monetary policy framework.1 』
『I will argue that the global decline in the neutral rate of interest over the past quarter century poses significant challenges to maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations in a standard inflation-targeting regime. I will then lay out some alternative policy strategies that have the potential of providing a solid anchor for inflation expectations-even with a very low neutral interest rate-while preserving broad continuity with current inflation-targeting practice. Now that I am already way out on a limb, I should emphasize that my remarks reflect my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Open Market Committee or anyone else in the Federal Reserve System.』
ということで始まり始まりなのですが、
・自然利子率が低下しているし当面続くでしょうと
『As a starting point, it’s useful to travel back in time to the 1980s and 1990s, when inflation targeting was introduced.』
『Today, we face an altogether different set of problems stemming from a very low neutral interest rateーthat is, the short-term real interest rate consistent with an economy operating at its potential alongside low and stable inflation. Ironically, the problem we need to solve these days is the risk of inflation that is persistently too low, rather than too high.』
『Today’s low neutral interest rates reflect the culmination of trends extending back 25 years. A quarter century ago, a typical estimate of the neutral rate in the United States was 2 or 2-1/2 percent-consistent with historical averages over the preceding half century. Since then, however, there has been a clear downward trend in neutral interest rates in the United States and other advanced economies, with current estimates ranging from 0 to 1-1/2 percent.2』
『Three main global trends appear to account for the bulk of the decline in the neutral rate over the past quarter century.3 One is demographics: populations are aging as people live longer and birth rates have fallen. The second is productivity growth, which has slowed around the world. The third is the heightened demand for safe and liquid assets, which has led to a wider wedge between yields on safe government securities or central bank reserves and yields on riskier assets such as corporate bonds.』
『Importantly, the onset of these trends preceded the global financial crisis and they have continued even as countries have recovered. Although there is a great deal of uncertainty about the neutral rate, and conditions may change, a reasonable assumption is that it will remain low-not far from current levels-for the foreseeable future.4
『What does a low neutral rate mean for monetary policy and the anchoring of inflation expectations? When a recession hits, central banks may not be able to reduce interest rates well below their neutral level to stimulate the economy as warranted because of the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. This shortfall of monetary accommodation would result in less desirable economic outcomes during the recession and recovery. In particular, inflation would typically undershoot its desired target during these episodes. The persistence of below-target inflation rates in many advanced economies over the past decade is a testament to this dynamic.』
『As a result of the inherent asymmetry introduced by the lower bound on interest rates, an inflation-targeting central bank could experience inflation that is below target, once we consider the average inflation rate over periods when policy is constrained and those when it is not. With inflation on average below the target level, inflation expectations will likely slip below the target rate as well.5 』
『A simple example helps illustrate this problem. Say that 80 percent of the time, the lower bound on interest rates does not constrain policy and the central bank aims for a 2 percent target inflation rate. During these “good” times, an inflation-targeting central bank aims to keep inflation near 2 percent. But, 20 percent of the time, the economy falls into a recession that’s severe enough that the lower bound constrains policy. Assume that during these periods, inflation averages only 1 percent. So, 80 percent of the time inflation averages 2 percent and 20 percent of the time inflation averages 1 percent. The resulting average rate of inflation is about 1.8 percent. As a consequence, inflation expectations are likely to become anchored at the long-run average of 1.8 percent, below the desired 2 percent target.』
『This downward shift in inflation expectations has a second-round effect on real interest rates, the economy, and inflation. When policy is constrained by the effective lower bound, the downward shift in inflation expectations raises the real interest rate, further diminishing the degree of monetary stimulus, making the downturn worse and reducing inflation even more. Even in times when policy is not constrained, the expectation of below-target inflation in the future affects current decisions, putting additional downward pressure on inflation.』
『In other words, monetary policy is always swimming upstream, fighting a current of too-low inflation expectations that interferes with achieving the target inflation rate. 』
『A number of alternative monetary policy frameworks have been proposed that aim to tackle the problems associated with the lower bound on interest rates. Although they differ in many ways, it is useful to divide these proposals into three broad categories.』
はい。
『The first option is to maintain the basic framework of inflation targeting and to rely on a combination of aggressive conventional and unconventional policy actions when facing economic downturns to limit the deleterious effects of the lower bound. This carries with it the risk that inflation expectations become anchored at too low a level.』
『The second option is “average-inflation targeting,” whereby the central bank purposefully aims to achieve an above-target inflation rate in “good” times when the lower bound is not a constraint. Properly designed and implemented, such an overshoot can offset the inflation undershoot during “bad” times so that the longer-run average inflation rate and inflation expectations are in line with the target. 』
『The third option is price-level targeting, including its various offshoots, such as nominal GDP targeting and temporary price-level targeting. In such a regime, the central bank commits to keep the price level near a steadily growing target path. Like average-inflation targeting, this strategy promises to overshoot the target inflation rate in “good” times to make up for the inflation undershoot when policy is constrained.』
『In theory, both average-inflation and price-level targeting can solve the problem of anchoring inflation expectations at the target rate while maintaining a low inflation target rate amid low neutral rates.』
よってここが胡散臭い。
『Although price-level targeting is a bigger leap from inflation targeting than average-inflation targeting, each can be implemented in ways that are very similar to standard inflation targeting, either in terms of forecast-targeting or a policy rule.6 Importantly, neither will likely be effective in practice unless communicated clearly and carried out consistently over time. More broadly, all of these proposed strategies face potential costs and benefits-in terms of macroeconomic performance, communication, and robustness to uncertainty-which require careful study.』
『In considering alternative monetary policy strategies, academic experts, policymakers, and others from around the world have an important part to play, sharing and discussing ideas and comparing experiences to help all of us to think through these issues. This process of careful study and discussion proved highly valuable during the development and implementation of inflation targeting in decades past, and will be equally valuable in the present debates.』
[外部リンク] Louis Fed's Bullard Presents More on Modern Monetary Policy Rules 12/7/2018
スライドショーはこちらのPDFです(やや重いので注意) [外部リンク] Ind. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard gave remarks titled “More on Modern Monetary Policy Rules” to the Indiana Bankers Association on Friday. He further elaborated on some key directions the Fed could take to update monetary policy rules.』
『In his talk, Bullard pointed out that “monetary policy rules have proven to be very useful in laying out benchmarks for monetary policy actions.”』
『One popular rule has been the 1999 version of the Taylor rule, referred to here as Taylor (1999), which was constructed based on U.S. data from the 1980s and 1990s.』
『“Since that time, three important macroeconomic developments have altered key elements of policy rule construction,” he said. These developments are lower short-term real interest rates, the disappearing Phillips curve and better measures of inflation expectations.』
『“Incorporating these developments yields a modernized policy rule that suggests the current level of the policy rate is about right over the forecast horizon,” Bullard said.』
ということで3つの件に関して。
『Lower Short-Term Real Interest Rates』
『The first adjustment in a modernized version of the Taylor (1999) rule is to account for the trend in short-term real interest rates, which has been decidedly lower over the last three decades, he explained. He noted that the Fed can influence short-term real interest rates through monetary policy but cannot control trends in these rates.』
『To obtain a trend value of the short-term real interest rate, he calculated the trend in a one-year ex-post safe real rate of return. He noted the current trend value of the short-term safe real interest rate is about zero in the U.S., and is even lower when measured on a global basis.』
『・I will use a simple atheoreticmethod to choose an appropriate level for the short-term safe real rate to place in the modernized policy rule. ・I say “atheoretic” because I will not impose a theory on the level of this rate, but instead simply consider the trend that is evident in the current data. ・ To draw the trend line, I will use the Hodrick-Prescott filter.* ・ According to this calculation, as shown in the next chart, the current trend value of the short-term real interest rate is about zero. 』(この部分はプレゼン資料(PDF)の12枚目のスライドより引用しています)
『Therefore, he used zero as the value of “r-star” in the modernized policy rule, and assumed it would not change appreciably over the forecast horizon. “I think this is prudent given the especially low value of the global safe real rate,” Bullard said.』
『“In the 1970s and 1980s, this feedback was relatively strong and formed the basis for the part of the monetary policy rule labeled as the output gap,” Bullard said. “However, this feedback has attenuated markedly since that time, to the point where arguably there is very little feedback at all.”』
でもってその辺に関してはブラード総裁は今年のシントラでのECBフォーラムで講演していて、J. Bullard, “The Case of the Disappearing Phillips Curve,” remarks delivered at the 2018 ECB Forum on Central Banking Macroeconomics of Price- and Wage-Setting, Sintra, Portugal, June 19, 2018.というのがありますが、この辺(とにかくこのオッサンはよー喋るというかよー講演する人なのよ)にリスト有りますのでご興味のある方は。[外部リンク] noted that the degree of attenuation has been approximately a factor of 10 in the U.S. That is, an unemployment gap that would have generated 100 basis points of inflation in the past would today generate only about 10 basis points of inflation, he explained. As a first pass to capture this in a modernized monetary policy rule, the coefficient on the output gap can be reduced by a factor of 10, he said.』
『Therefore, the third adjustment to the policy rule would be to change the inflation gap term to measure the distance between the market-based expectations of inflation over the next five years and the inflation target.』
いやいやいやいやそれは違うだろとは思うのですが、
『One advantage of using inflation expectations in a modernized policy rule is that it allows for a forward-looking element in the rule, Bullard noted. “Forward-looking financial market participants are incorporating all available information-including existing theories, market developments and other policy developments-in forming their expectations of future inflation,” he said.』
『・I have so far made two adjustments to modernize the monetary policy rule. ・ There is one more adjustment to make regarding inflation. ・ In the 1980s and 1990s, there was no market for Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS), and consequently there were no reliable realtime estimates of inflation expectations. ・ However, we now have about two decades’ worth of data on inflation compensation coming from these markets, and these data provide an important guidepost for monetary policymakers』(この部分はプレゼン資料(PDF)の25枚目のスライドより引用しています)
っていやいやいやTIPSの利回り見れるから市場のインフレ期待見れるってそれはちょっとという感じのスライドがあるのがなんとも。でもってちなみにスライドの28枚目に『Real-time inflation expectations are low』ってのがあって、まあTIPSの利回りだけじゃなくて修正は加えているようなのですが、そこから引っ張ってきた市場のインフレ期待というのが28枚目のグラフにあって、それ見ると足元では市場のインフレ期待が急落している格好になっています。
『Bullard added the current reading on market-based inflation expectations suggests that financial markets do not expect the Fed to attain its stated inflation target over the next five years on a personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation basis.』
というのがこの部分ね。
『When incorporating an expected inflation gap in the modernized version of the monetary policy rule, he also assumed that expected inflation returns to target over the forecast horizon, he pointed out.』
つーことで、スライドの29枚目に『The message from inflation expectations』ってのがあって、
『・The current reading on market-based inflation expectations shown in the chart suggests that financial markets do not expect the Fed to attain its stated inflation target over the next five years on a PCE inflation basis. ・ I will incorporate an expected inflation gap in the modernized version of the monetary policy rule. ・ I will also assume expected inflation returns to target over the forecast horizon. ・ This completes the necessary adjustments to the policy rule, so let’s now turn to the implications of modernization for current policy.』(この部分はプレゼン資料(PDF)の29枚目のスライドより引用しています)
『Bullard then examined the recommended policy rate path implied by the modernized monetary policy rule, which accounts for the three adjustments: using a lower value for the short-term real interest rate, accounting for the reduction of the feedback from the real economy to inflation and replacing the inflation gap with an inflation expectations gap.』
『He also compared this path with the median in the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the policy rate path implied by the unmodernized Taylor (1999) rule.』
『He said that “the modernized version of the Taylor (1999) rule recommends a relatively subdued policy rate path over the forecast horizon-similar to the St. Louis Fed’s recommended path in the SEP.”』
そらお前が作った修正テイラールールだから「similar to the St. Louis Fed’s recommended path in the SEP」 なの当たり前だわ。
『The unmodernized Taylor (1999) rule calls for rapid increases in the policy rate, he noted, but this rule does not take into account the three important macroeconomic developments since the 1980s and 1990s.』
まあオリジナルのテイラールールの方はさておきまして、
『The median path for the policy rate in the FOMC’s September 2018 SEP arguably takes on board some of the modernization, Bullard said. Thus, the projected policy rate path is between the modernized and unmodernized versions of the Taylor (1999) rule.』
