[外部リンク] 23, 2019 Challenges for Monetary Policy Chair Jerome H. Powell At the "Challenges for Monetary Policy" symposium, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
『Each era presents a key question for the Fed and for society more generally.』
ほうほうそのキークエスチョンとは?
『The first era raises the question whether a central bank can resist the temptations that led to the Great Inflation.』
これ「グレートインフレーション」を「ファイナンシャルインバランス」に書き換えたらまんま今の話になるんですけれども、と思ったりしまして、まあ何かその中での説明は淡々とやっている感はあるものの、この時期に関する説明という章があって、その章の小見出しが『Era I, 1950-1982: Policy Breeds Macroeconomic Instability and the Great Inflation』ってなっている訳でして、どうもパウエルさん本家返りして金融政策の起こす金融不均衡の問題も遠回しに言いたかったんとちゃいますかという気がするのはアタクシが勝手に妄想を逞しくしているからですかそうですか。
『The second era raises the question whether long expansions supported by better monetary policy inevitably lead to destabilizing financial excesses like those seen in the Great Moderation.』
2番目の時代はボルカーの荒療治(強烈な金利引き上げ政策を「マネタリーベースコントロール」という方便を使ってぶっこんで一気にインフレを退治するという荒療治)によってインフレ抑制されてからグレートモデレーションだの言い出し、挙句にはディスタイムイズディファレントとか言い出して調子に乗っていたら金融バブルが何回か発生して最後のが大災厄になったという場面までのお話なのですが、ここで得られるインプリケーションが「long expansions supported by better monetary policy inevitably lead to destabilizing financial excesses」ってこれまた思いっきり緩和政策長期化による金融不均衡発生の問題の話でして、パウエル先生ワシントンから離れた場所でホワイトハウス方面から発する瘴気を感じないと元気になるのかも知れませんな。
『The third era confronts us with the question of how best to promote sustained prosperity in a world of slow global growth, low inflation, and low interest rates.』
『Near the end of my remarks, I will discuss the current context, and the ways these questions are shaping policy.』
ということで、超目先の政策に関する部分は昨日引用した一文くらいしか実際に無くて、「act as appropriate」だからまあ何かやるでしょってお話にはなっていますが、ただまあその前の話を見ますとねえ・・・・・・・・
・3つのインプリケーションを今のコンテクストに敷衍するとどうなるか
てなわけでございましてこの次に『Era II, 1983 through 2009: the Great Moderation and Great Recession』、『Era II, 1983 through 2009: the Great Moderation and Great Recession』。『Era III, 2010 and After: Monetary Policy and the Emerging New Normal』という小見出しになっていまして、直近のはニューノーマルですかそうですかとか、中の歴史的な説明についてとかもオモロイのですが、それをやっているといつまで経っても次に進まないので全部すっ飛ばして(インプリケーションはさっき引用した通り)その先に行きます。
『Current Policy and the Three Key Questions』という小見出しから。
『Let me turn now to the current implications for monetary policy of the questions raised by these three eras.』
ほうほうそれでそれで?
『The first era raised the question of whether the Fed can avoid excessive inflation. Inflation has averaged less than 2 percent over the past 25 years, and low inflation has been the main concern for the past decade. Low inflation seems to be the problem of this era, not high inflation. Nonetheless, in the unlikely event that signs of too-high inflation return, we have proven tools to address such a situation.』
『The second era's question-whether long expansions inevitably breed financial excesses-is a challenging and timely one.』
「第2の時代のインプリケーションは挑戦的でタイムリー」キタコレ!!!
『Hyman Minsky long argued that, as an expansion continues and memories of the previous downturn fade, financial risk management deteriorates and risks are increasingly underappreciated.13』
ミンスキーの話を引用しつつ、金融不均衡発生というかバブル発生の話をぶっこんできました。
『This observation has spurred much discussion. At the end of the day, we cannot prevent people from finding ways to take excessive financial risks. But we can work to make sure that they bear the costs of their decisions, and that the financial system as a whole continues to function effectively. Since the crisis, Congress, the Fed, and other regulatory authorities here and around the world have taken substantial steps to achieve these goals. Banks and other key institutions have significantly more capital and more stable funding than before the crisis. We comprehensively review financial stability every quarter and release our assessments twice a year to highlight areas of concern and allow oversight of our efforts.』
『We have not seen unsustainable borrowing, financial booms, or other excesses of the sort that occurred at times during the Great Moderation, and I continue to judge overall financial stability risks to be moderate. But we remain vigilant.』
『Because today's setting is both challenging and unique in many ways, it may be useful to lay out some general principles for assessing and implementing appropriate policy and to describe how we have been applying those principles.』
『Through the FOMC's setting of the federal funds rate target range and our communications about the likely path forward for policy and the economy, we seek to influence broader financial conditions to promote maximum employment and price stability.』
結局ね、金融政策運営にあたって「we seek to influence broader financial conditions」とか言ってるから結果として金融市場に振り回されるのであって、どうもピントがずれているとしか思えない。
『In forming judgments about the appropriate stance of policy, the Committee digests a broad range of data and other information to assess the current state of the economy, the most likely outlook for the future, and meaningful risks to that outlook.』
これはまあどうでもよい。
『Because the most important effects of monetary policy are felt with uncertain lags of a year or more, the Committee must attempt to look through what may be passing developments and focus on things that seem likely to affect the outlook over time or that pose a material risk of doing so.』
『Risk management enters our decisionmaking because of both the uncertainty about the effects of recent developments and the uncertainty we face regarding structural aspects of the economy, including the natural rate of unemployment and the neutral rate of interest. It will at times be appropriate for us to tilt policy one way or the other because of prominent risks. Finally, we have a responsibility to explain what we are doing and why we are doing it so the American people and their elected representatives in Congress can provide oversight and hold us accountable.』
『We have much experience in addressing typical macroeconomic developments under this framework.』
この次がワロタというか泣いた。
『But fitting trade policy uncertainty into this framework is a new challenge.』
そらそうだ。
『Setting trade policy is the business of Congress and the Administration, not that of the Fed. Our assignment is to use monetary policy to foster our statutory goals. In principle, anything that affects the outlook for employment and inflation could also affect the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and that could include uncertainty about trade policy. There are, however, no recent precedents to guide any policy response to the current situation. Moreover, while monetary policy is a powerful tool that works to support consumer spending, business investment, and public confidence, it cannot provide a settled rulebook for international trade. We can, however, try to look through what may be passing events, focus on how trade developments are affecting the outlook, and adjust policy to promote our objectives.』
『This approach is illustrated by the way incoming data have shaped the likely path of policy this year. The outlook for the U.S. economy since the start of the year has continued to be a favorable one. Business investment and manufacturing have weakened, but solid job growth and rising wages have been driving robust consumption and supporting moderate growth overall.』
この辺から完全に今の政策の話になっていて、経済は強いよ強いよのアピールから入る。
『As the year has progressed, we have been monitoring three factors that are weighing on this favorable outlook: slowing global growth, trade policy uncertainty, and muted inflation. The global growth outlook has been deteriorating since the middle of last year. Trade policy uncertainty seems to be playing a role in the global slowdown and in weak manufacturing and capital spending in the United States. Inflation fell below our objective at the start of the year. It appears to be moving back up closer to our symmetric 2 percent objective, but there are concerns about a more prolonged shortfall.』
一方で世界経済の減速と貿易問題と物価が中々2%に届かんという問題がある。
『Committee participants have generally reacted to these developments and the risks they pose by shifting down their projections of the appropriate federal funds rate path. Along with July's rate cut, the shifts in the anticipated path of policy have eased financial conditions and help explain why the outlook for inflation and employment remains largely favorable.』
よって今回利下げしました。でもって金利見通し下げたら金融環境良くなったでしょ、とな。
『Turning to the current context, we are carefully watching developments as we assess their implications for the U.S. outlook and the path of monetary policy. The three weeks since our July FOMC meeting have been eventful, beginning with the announcement of new tariffs on imports from China.』
『We have seen further evidence of a global slowdown, notably in Germany and China. Geopolitical events have been much in the news, including the growing possibility of a hard Brexit, rising tensions in Hong Kong, and the dissolution of the Italian government.』
その他の要因も並べていますね。
『Financial markets have reacted strongly to this complex, turbulent picture. Equity markets have been volatile. Long-term bond rates around the world have moved down sharply to near post-crisis lows. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy has continued to perform well overall, driven by consumer spending. Job creation has slowed from last year's pace but is still above overall labor force growth. Inflation seems to be moving up closer to 2 percent. Based on our assessment of the implications of these developments, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.』
ジャクソンホールの今回の式次第と資料置き場はカンザスシティ連銀サイトのこちらになります。 [外部リンク] for Monetary Policy
Materials for this year's symposium, during which participants discuss economic issues, implications and policy options, will be posted as they are available. Times listed on the agenda are Mountain Standard Time.
Thursday, August 22, 2019 6 p.m. Opening Reception and Dinner Host: Esther L. George | Remarks President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
[外部リンク] Remarks by Esther L. George At the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, “Challenges for Monetary Policy” August 22, 2019
・不穏当なご挨拶は本文2ページ目の後半から
『It is my pleasure to welcome you to beautiful Jackson Hole, Wyoming and to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s economic symposium titled “Challenges for Monetary Policy.”』
ということでご挨拶が始まりまして、前半はこのシンポジウムに長年参加していた方のご逝去を悼む( Alan KruegerさんとMarty Feldsteinさん)というお話がありましてしんみりとするのですが、2ページ目の半ばからお話がおっぱじまりまして・・・・・・・・・・・
『As we considered the topic for this year’s symposium, we were mindful that a decade beyond the global financial crisis, central bankers face a range of challenges as they pursue their mandates.』
『Differences in economic conditions across countries have contributed to a divergence in policy paths with implications for exchange rates, trade, and ultimately economic activity.』
『The buildup and eventual unwinding of balance sheet policies have implications for capital markets and financial flows between countries.』
バランスシートの拡大とその撤収は各国の資本市場や金融フローにインプリケーションを与えました。
『And as central banks have looked to normalize policy settings, the prospect of lower neutral rates of interest has emerged across the globe. While charting a course to pursue their mandates under these circumstances, central banks also must take into account the influences of commodity and financial markets.』
『Without question, it’s a complex ecosystem in which central bankers seek an equilibrium.』
言うまでもなく我々が平衡を保とうとしている世界は複雑な生態系の元にあります。
『And our setting here in the Grand Teton National Park is perhaps the ideal place to contemplate such challenges given the very complex natural ecosystem that exists here.』
『You will find that the national park is home to a variety of species - elk, moose, bison, and grizzly bears to name a few. These animals co-exist in an equilibrium that provides mutual benefits when they respect each other’s territory.』
『As the park rangers will tell you, some of these animals establish large territories referred to as home ranges. When the home ranges of different animals overlap, or one animal intrudes on another’s territory, things get a little more interesting. That said, the park rangers assure me that such encounters or even aggression are generally resolved without bloodshed, typically with retreat of the intruder. 』
『Earlier this week, I attended a talk hosted here at the Jackson Lake Lodge that also may provide lessons for the ecosystem in which central bankers operate.』
『In this talk, the speaker reviewed the history of Grizzly bears in Yellowstone.』
イエローストーン国立公園の灰色熊に関するお話だそうで。
『He explained that, as the railroad was constructed across Wyoming in the 1800s, hotels began to spring up to provide accommodations for travelers.』
1800年代にこの地に鉄道が開通してから観光ホテルが沢山出来ました。
『After serving meals, the hotel kitchens would toss out the scraps a short distance from the kitchen door, which as you might imagine, eventually attracted the grizzly bears.』
『As it turned out, the tourists quite enjoyed watching the bears feed and at first, it seemed harmless, even beneficial - but there were unintended consequences. The bears began to prefer this new source of food to the detriment of their health and the safety of the tourists. Eventually, the park service put a stop to this practice with a difficult transition to a new equilibrium - getting the grizzlies to return to their natural diet.』
『Whether or not central bankers can actually draw any lessons from this natural ecosystem, I highly recommend while you’re here that you do not feed the bears and avoid encounters with them while hiking in their territory.』
『Again, thank you for coming, and I look forward to the presentations and discussions of the excellent papers prepared for this year’s program and the insights from all of you on the challenges for monetary policy. 』
〇パウエル講演ですが目先の金融政策の話が注目されてしまいましたが言ってる事は何気に本家返りの香り
[外部リンク] 23, 2019 Challenges for Monetary Policy Chair Jerome H. Powell At the "Challenges for Monetary Policy" symposium, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
『Based on our assessment of the implications of these developments, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.』
って所でして、この「will act as appropriate」の話があって(声明文にもあるけど)、先般のFOMC後の会見で連呼していた「midcycle」が無くなっていますなあ、というので、まあとりあえず様子見しますよという訳ではなさそうですな、という感じなので、確かに明示的に9月の利下げを予告ホームランするような感じは全然無かったという感じです。
『This year's symposium topic is "Challenges for Monetary Policy," and for the Federal Reserve those challenges flow from our mandate to foster maximum employment and price stability. From this perspective, our economy is now in a favorable place, and I will describe how we are working to sustain these conditions in the face of significant risks we have been monitoring.』
「our economy is now in a favorable place」なんですよね。でもって雇用の方の説明はお察しの通りですが、
『The current U.S. expansion has entered its 11th year and is now the longest on record.1 The unemployment rate has fallen steadily throughout the expansion and has been near half-century lows since early 2018. But that rate alone does not fully capture the benefits of this historically strong job market.』
失業率だけで労働市場をキャプチャーできる訳ではない、と言いつつほかの指標も良好な話が続く。
『Labor force participation by people in their prime working years has been rising. While unemployment for minorities generally remains higher than for the workforce as a whole, the rate for African Americans, at 6 percent, is the lowest since the government began tracking it in 1972. For the past few years, wages have been increasing the most for people at the lower end of the wage scale. People who live and work in low- and middle-income communities tell us that this job market is the best anyone can recall.』
『We increasingly hear reports that employers are training workers who lack required skills, adapting jobs to the needs of employees with family responsibilities, and offering second chances to people who need one.』
『Inflation has been surprisingly stable during the expansion: not falling much when the economy was weak and not rising much as the expansion gained strength.』
物価は「has been surprisingly stable」ということで、経済が弱い時でもそんなに大きく下がらず、経済が拡大するなかでもアガランチ会長という説明。いやまあそれはその通りなんですが、だったら物価が経済の体温計であることを放棄した状態になっているのですからして、金融政策って別に物価安定が本来の意義なのではなくて、マクロ経済の安定化が本来の意義で、その物差しとして物価が一番フィットするから物価安定目標をぶっこんでいるのだと思うのですが、物差しぶっ壊れている(かもしれない)のに何でその物差しにこだわるのかと小一時間問い詰めたいのですが、まあそういう話はこのシンポジウムでも無かった(ような気がするだけでちゃんと全部の資料に目を通している訳ではありません、汗)のではないかと。
『Inflation ran close to our symmetric 2 percent objective for most of last year but has been running somewhat below 2 percent this year.』
ほうほうそうですか。
『Thus, after a decade of progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the economy is close to both goals.』
「the economy is close to both goals」なのになぜ利下げするんでちゅかねえ。
『Our challenge now is to do what monetary policy can do to sustain the expansion so that the benefits of the strong jobs market extend to more of those still left behind, and so that inflation is centered firmly around 2 percent.』
って話をしているんですが、まあ強いて言えば「to do what monetary policy can do to sustain the expansion」って言っているので、先般はその保険だの言って利下げしただけに、足元で不透明は拡大しているからもう一丁保険の上積みが期待できるでしょうなあ、という解釈は出来ると思うので、経済が良いですと威勢のいいことを言うものの、一応は利下げ示唆とも言えそうですが、ただまあ市場ちゃんだか灰色熊だか知りませんが、それに対する餌としては栄養不足の感は否めませんな、トランプ砲で全部どっか行っちゃいましたが。
『Today I will explore what history tells us about sustaining long, steady expansions. A good place to start is with the passage of the Employment Act of 1946, which stated that it is the "continuing policy and responsibility of the Federal Government ... to promote maximum employment, production, and purchasing power."2 Some version of these goals has been in place ever since. I will divide the history since World War II into three eras organized around some well-known "Greats."』
『The first era comprises the postwar years through the Great Inflation.』
戦後から大インフレの時代(1950-1982となっています)。
『The second era brought the Great Moderation but ended in the Great Recession.』
『The reaction stresses the uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of negative policy rates as expansionary tools when inflation expectations are anchored at low levels.』
『Because of the long period of low inflation in Japan, its experience provides an interesting example of the impact of negative monetary policy rates when inflation expectations are well-anchored at very low levels.』
インフレ期待が低いところでアンカーされた場合の例ですとよ。
『We examine movements in yields on inflation-indexed and deflation-protected Japanese government bonds to gauge changes in the market’s inflation expectations from the BOJ moving to negative policy rates.』
マイナス金利政策導入におけるインフレ期待の変化を調べましたとな。
『Our results suggest that this movement resulted in decreased, rather than increased, immediate and medium-term expected inflation.』
・・・・・・・・・・・・(;∀;)イイハナシタ゛ナー
しかし「インフレ期待が上がったどころか下がった」とか無慈悲な砲撃により日本橋本石町が火の海ですな。
『This therefore suggests using caution when considering the efficacy of negative rates as expansionary policy tools under well-anchored inflation expectations.』
『An important caveat to our results is that the BOJ move toward negative rates may itself have reflected deteriorating economic conditions. Therefore the changes in the market’s expectations could have been responses to that deterioration rather than to the policy change.』
『In other words, it is possible that the decline in medium- and long-term inflation expectations in the data might have been even steeper if the BOJ had not moved into negative policy rates.』
[外部リンク] of the Federal Open Market Committee July 30-31, 2019
『Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices』の最後になります。
・インフレ目標のありかたについて:もしかしたら2%のレンジ化が有力候補なのかも知れませんね
残り実質2パラグラフだけです(なぜ昨日成敗できんという所ですがつい時間配分間違えました)。
『Participants looked forward to a detailed discussion over coming meetings of alternative strategies for monetary policy.』
ここから先が「今後の金融政策運営における代替的な手段についての検討」です。
『Some participants offered remarks on general features of some of the monetary policy strategies that they would be discussing and on the relationship between those strategies and the current framework.』
幾つかの面において幾つかの案はあるようですな。
『A few of the options mentioned were "makeup strategies," in which the realization of inflation below the 2 percent objective would give rise to policy actions designed to deliver inflation above the objective for a time. In principle, such makeup strategies could be designed to promote a 2 percent inflation rate, on average, over some period. In such circumstances, market expectations that the central bank would seek to "make up" inflation shortfalls following periods during which the ELB was binding could help ease overall financial conditions and thus help support economic activity during ELB episodes.』
『However, many participants noted that the benefits of makeup strategies in supporting economic activity and stabilizing inflation depended heavily on the private sector's understanding of those strategies and confidence that future policymakers would take actions consistent with those strategies.』
『A few participants suggested that an alternative means of delivering average inflation equal to the Committee's longer-run objective might involve aiming for inflation somewhat in excess of 2 percent when the policy rate was away from the ELB, recognizing that inflation would tend to move lower when the policy rate was constrained by the ELB.』
『Another possibility might be for the Committee to express the inflation goal as a range centered on 2 percent and aim to achieve inflation outcomes in the upper end of the range in periods when resource utilization was high. A couple of participants noted that an adoption of a target range would be consistent with the practice of some other central banks. A few other participants suggested that the adoption of a range could convey a message that small deviations of inflation from 2 percent were unlikely to give rise to sizable policy responses. A couple of participants expressed concern that if policymakers regularly failed to respond appropriately to persistent, relatively small shortfalls of inflation below the 2 percent longer-run objective, inflation expectations and average observed inflation could drift below that objective.』
『Participants also discussed the Committee's Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy.』
ほほう。
『Participants noted that this statement had been helpful in articulating and clarifying the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy. The Committee first released this document in January 2012 and had renewed it, with a few modifications, every year since then. On the basis of the monetary policy and economic experience of the past decade, participants cited a number of topics that they would likely discuss in detail in their deliberations during the review and that might motivate possible modifications to the statement. These topics included the conduct of monetary policy in the presence of the ELB constraint, the role of inflation expectations in monetary policy, the best means of conveying the Committee's balanced approach to monetary policy and the symmetry of its inflation goal, the relationship between the Committee's strategy and its decisions about the settings of its policy tools, the implications of the low value of the neutral policy rate and of uncertainty about the values of the neutral policy rate and the longer-run normal rate of unemployment, the potential benefits and costs of unemployment running below its longer-run normal rate in conditions of muted inflation pressures, and the time frame over which policymakers aimed to achieve their dual-mandate goals.』
何か話が切れないでダラダラと続くのでここだけやたら長くなってしまいましたが、毎年頭に改定されている、というか最初に出てそんなに改定されていないのですが、「Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy」についてのお話から始まっていまして、それ自体はコミュニケーションツールとしては考えを説明するのに結構であるという話をしています。でもってなんかそれ以外の話がやたら多くて、「 On the basis of the monetary policy and economic experience of the past decade, participants cited a number of topics that they would likely discuss in detail in their deliberations during the review and that might motivate possible modifications to the statement.」から始まるところで、金融政策運営上の色々なトピックスについて議論したってあって、そのお題が延々とパラグラフの残りまで出てきていまして、一つ一つのテーマに関してはまあそうですなとは思うのですが、テーマを羅列しただけという状態になっているので、これは何か意見の合意があったとかいう話じゃなくて「ワシはこういう点について考えとるんじゃがの〜」みたいに各々が好き勝手にお題を出しているだけという感じは漂ってまいります。でもってお題連発コーナーの次にちょっと意見のコーナーがありまして、
『A couple of participants emphasized the availability to policymakers of other communication tools through which the Committee could elaborate on its policy strategy and the challenges that monetary policy faced in the current environment, while also indicating that the Committee retains flexibility and optionality to achieve its objectives.』
『Participants highlighted the importance of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) in conveying participants' modal outlooks, with several participants suggesting that modifications to the SEP's format might enhance policy communications.』
でもってその次に「Participants highlighted the importance of the Summary of Economic Projections」と来まして、要はSEPはやっぱりいいヨ!ってのが出てくるんで、まあ最初の2名の方が外れ値ではあるのですが、ただまあ色々とトピック箇条書き並べられた中でここのネタ(と次のネタ)は議論が唐突に書かれているのは、SEPの有り方については議論があって、まあSEPそのものは無くならないでしょうが、特にドットチャートの有り方については検討の余地があるということなのではないでしょうか、よー知らんけど。
『Participants also commented on the importance of considering the connections between monetary policy and financial stability.』
『Participants expected that, at upcoming meetings, they would continue their deliberations on the review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. These additional discussions would consider various topics, such as alternative policy strategies, options for enhanced use of existing monetary policy tools, possible additions to the policy toolkit, potential changes to communication practices, the relationship between monetary policy and financial stability, and the distributional effects of monetary policy.』
『Several participants favored maintaining the same target range at this meeting, judging that the real economy continued to be in a good place, bolstered by confident consumers, a strong job market, and a low rate of unemployment. These participants acknowledged that there were lingering risks and uncertainties about the global economy in general, and about international trade in particular, but they viewed those risks as having diminished over the intermeeting period.』(7月FOMC議事要旨より)
例によってトランプ砲による株式市場外国為替市場のあばばばばーが出てしまったのでパウエル議長の講演自体が(先般のFOMC記者会見と同様に)濁流に押し流されてしまって政策予想的に読んでも読まなくてもみたいな感じになってしまいましたが(なので今日は金曜の続きの方を優先)、別の記事とか読んでいると今回は先般のFOMC記者会見後に登場したバズワードの「midcycle」が出てこないで、「act as appropriate」だけになったので利下げそのものは示唆、みたいな話になっていました。
『With regard to the current monetary policy framework, participants agreed that this framework had served the Committee and the U.S. economy well over the past decade.』
『They judged that forward guidance and balance sheet actions had provided policy accommodation during the ELB period and had supported economic activity and a return to strong labor market conditions while also bringing inflation closer to the Committee's longer-run goal of 2 percent than would otherwise have been the case.』
これまで実施してきたフォワードガイダンスとバランスシート政策がゼロ金利制約の下で適切に機能したので、雇用の拡大と2%物価目標へ近づくことが出来ました(キリッ)って話になっていまして、ご丁寧にも「than would otherwise have been the case」という事ですが、どういう分析をして「他よりも良かった」という話になるのかというのは今回のスタッフ分析という所にあるのか無いのかよー分からんですけれども、結果的には経済物価のパフォーマンスが良かったとしても、他のやり方よりも良かったとか言い切るのはさすがに図々しいと思うし、それ以前の問題として、そういう結果を導出するというのは金融政策の効果を過大に評価することにつながると思うので、大丈夫かよという話だと思うの。いやまあやっている当事者からしたら「経済情勢の好転は金融政策以外の部分の要因が大きくて、実は何のことない他の緩和でも結果はそんなに変わらなかったかも知れませんですなああっはっは」という話になったら当事者的にはションボリーヌだし、金融政策はマクロ経済のスムージングくらいしか効果無いわという話になると、じゃあ金融政策にそんなに人的組織的リソース掛けんでもエエンチャウノという話になって自分らの存在意義に関わりますからねえ。
『In addition, participants noted that the Committee's balanced approach to promoting its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability had facilitated Committee policy actions aimed at supporting the labor market and economic activity even during times when the provision of accommodation was potentially associated with the risk of inflation running persistently above 2 percent.』
これまでのデュアルマンデートに向けたバランスアプローチが功を奏しましただそうで。
『Participants further observed that such inflation risks-along with several of the other perceived risks of providing substantial accommodation through nontraditional policy tools, including possible adverse implications for financial stability-had not been realized.』
『In particular, a number of participants commented that, as many of the potential costs of the Committee's asset purchases had failed to materialize, the Federal Reserve might have been able to make use of balance sheet tools even more aggressively over the past decade in providing appropriate levels of accommodation.』
『However, several participants remarked that considerable uncertainties remained about the costs and efficacy of asset purchases, and a couple of participants suggested that, taking account of the uncertainties and the perceived constraints facing policymakers in the years following the recession, the Committee's decisions on the amount of policy accommodation to provide through asset purchases had been appropriate.』
『In their discussion of policy tools, participants noted that the experience acquired by the Committee with the use of forward guidance and asset purchases has led to an improved understanding of how these tools operate; as a result, the Committee could proceed more confidently and preemptively in using these tools in the future if economic circumstances warranted.』
『Participants discussed the extent to which forward guidance and balance sheet actions could substitute for reductions in the policy rate when the policy rate is constrained by the ELB. Overall, participants judged that the Federal Reserve's ability to provide monetary policy accommodation at the ELB through the use of forward guidance and balance sheet tools, while helpful in mitigating the effects of the constraint on monetary policy arising from the lower bound, did not eliminate the risk of protracted periods in which the ELB hinders the conduct of policy.』
『If policymakers are not able to provide sufficient accommodation at the ELB through the use of forward guidance or balance sheet actions, the constraints posed by the ELB could be an impediment to the attainment of the Federal Reserve's dual-mandate objectives over time and put at risk the anchoring of inflation expectations at the Committee's longer-run inflation objective.』
てな愚感想を並べておいてこちらは後で読みますサーセン。 [外部リンク] of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 24-25 July 2019
〇FOMC7月会合議事要旨読みの続きで政策フレームワークについて(たぶんその1)
[外部リンク] of the Federal Open Market Committee July 30-31, 2019
最初の『Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices』というのが気になったので昨日の続きというか何というかで議事要旨の鑑賞を行うのですが、これがまた割とというかとんでもなく量があるので多分今朝では成敗しきれないと思います。なお「今後も議論していく」という話で現世利益に繋がらないことから今回ここが市場注目ネタとはなっていない筈なのでまあボチボチと読むという事でご勘弁頂きたく。
『Committee participants began their discussions related to the ongoing review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices.』
『Staff briefings provided a retrospective on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions since the financial crisis, together with background and analysis regarding some key issues.』
過去の政策についての「background and analysis regarding some key issues」のブリーフィングというのの資料を見せて欲しいところですが、バーナンキ大先生に関しては何せ(先般の夏休み企画でネタにしましたように)1999年ジャクソンホールでは実現できない素っ頓狂な後付け提言をジャパンに向けて行い、トサカに来た(かどうか知らんが)山口泰副総裁(当時)に公開処刑されるという事案があったようなお方でしたが、いさ自分でおっぱじめてみると割とこう理屈もへったくれも無く、ただしデザインとして出口に関しては色々と考えていて、テーパリングでタントラム起こしたとは言え、あの時点で当時のスタイン理事の理屈に乗っかった格好で出口へ舵を切るとか、まあ経済情勢の後押しによる幸運は相当大きいとは言えやることはやった感もありますな。
『In its policy response during the recession and the subsequent economic recovery, the Committee lowered the federal funds rate to its effective lower bound (ELB) and provided additional monetary policy accommodation through both forward guidance about the expected path of the policy rate and balance sheet policy. 』
さいですな。
『These actions eased financial conditions and provided substantial support to economic activity; they therefore figured importantly in helping promote the recovery in the labor market and in preventing inflation from falling substantially below the Committee's objective.』
『The presentation noted, however, that over the past several years, inflation had tended to run modestly below the Committee's longer-run goal of 2 percent, while some indicators of longer-run inflation expectations currently stood at low levels.』
でも物価2%はまだ届いてませんがな、ということで、
『The staff also provided results from model simulations that illustrated possible challenges to the achievement of the Committee's dual-mandate goals over the medium term.』
やっとモデルが出てきました。
『These challenges included the proximity of the policy rate to the ELB, imprecise knowledge about the neutral value of the policy rate and the longer-run normal level of the unemployment rate, the diminished response of inflation to resource utilization, and uncertainty about the relationship between inflation expectations and inflation outcomes.』
のですが、個別ツールの妥当性とかの話ではなく、マクロの方からの話で自然利子率の低下だの自然失業率の低下だの需給ギャップに対する物価の感応度だの、インフレ期待と実際のインフレの推移の関係の不確実性だの、というのがお題になっているようですが、この中でアタクシ的には最後の「uncertainty about the relationship between inflation expectations and inflation outcomes」っていう話はちょっとほほーと思いました。だってもしインフレ期待と実際のインフレの結果の関係が弱まっている、というのであれば、おそらく重要なのは実際の経済主体の行動を決めるのはインフレーションアウトカムなのか、インフレーションエクスペクテーションなのか、という話になって、アウトカムがさほど重要ではないとなると、インフレ目標政策に関しても2%という数値に対してリジッドな考え方を持つのではなく、実際に行われている経済主体の行動を見ながら推測される一般公衆のインフレ期待を見る、つまりは経済活動の状況を見ながら総合判断というのがベターなアプローチ、ってことになると思うのよ。
『In their discussion, participants welcomed the review of the monetary policy framework. They noted that the inclusion of feedback from the public as part of the review, via the Fed Listens events, had improved the transparency of the review process, enhanced the Federal Reserve's public accountability, and provided insights into the positive implications of strong labor markets and high rates of employment for various communities.』
『 Furthermore, participants agreed that the review was timely and warranted, in light of the use over the past decade of new policy tools and the emergence of changes in the structure and operation of the U.S. economy.』
『These changes included the long period during which the federal funds rate was at the ELB, the probable recurrence of ELB episodes if the neutral level of the policy rate remains at historically low levels, and the challenges that policymakers face in influencing inflation and inflation expectations when the response of inflation to resource utilization has diminished. Participants generally agreed that the Committee's consideration of possible modifications to its policy strategy, tools, and communication practices would take some time and that the process would be careful, deliberate, and patient.』
『Participants expected that, at upcoming meetings, they would continue their deliberations on the review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. These additional discussions would consider various topics, such as alternative policy strategies, options for enhanced use of existing monetary policy tools, possible additions to the policy toolkit, potential changes to communication practices, the relationship between monetary policy and financial stability, and the distributional effects of monetary policy.』
[外部リンク] of the Federal Open Market Committee July 30-31, 2019
A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, July 30, 2019, at 10:00 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, July 31, 2019, at 9:00 a.m.1
ということで。
・うーんこの体裁は
寝起きインスタント読みマンとしましては、『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』をとりあえず読みまして、しかもそれをケツから読むので、要は『Committee Policy Action』の手前から逆順に読むのですが、今回スクロールしていて「え?」と思ったのは謎の(別に謎ではないが)箇条書きがあることで、今回の利下げに関する理由が書かれているっぽいなあと一見して思われた(実際そうだが)訳ですよこれがまた。
でですね、まあ利下げの理由がどうのこうのは良いんですけれども、箇条書き方式になっているというのは、他の部分では見るんですけれども、議論のパートで箇条書きってナンヤソラという感じで、アタクシの鶏並みの記憶ではあんまりこういう作りをしないと思うのでして、いつもと違う作りになっているという事には基本的に意味があると考えるアタクシとしては気になりましたので、今回はいつもの逆順読み方式ではなく、『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』の個別需給項目の話が終わった辺りになる9パラグラフ目の物価見通しの話しから読んでまいります。
・先行き物価見通し議論はインフレ期待の低下リスクを懸念するのが大勢っぽい
『In their discussion of the outlook for inflation, participants generally anticipated that with appropriate policy, inflation would move up to the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term.』
この「with appropriate policy」が人によって異なっているのが何ともかんとも。
『However, market-based measures of inflation compensation and some survey measures of consumers' inflation expectations remained low, although they had moved up some of late.』
『A few participants remarked that inflation expectations appeared to be reasonably well anchored at levels consistent with the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.』
『However, some participants stressed that the prolonged shortfall in inflation from the long-run goal could cause inflation expectations to drift down-a development that might make it more difficult to achieve the Committee's mandated goals on a sustained basis, especially in the current environment of global disinflationary pressures.』
『A couple of participants observed that, although some indicators of longer-term inflation expectations, like TIPS-based inflation compensation and the Michigan survey measure, had not changed substantially this year, on net, they were notably lower than their levels several years ago.』
『The agreement between the United States and China to resume negotiations appeared to ease trade tensions somewhat. In addition, many participants noted that the recent agreement on the federal debt ceiling and budget appropriations substantially reduced near-term fiscal policy uncertainty.』
『Moreover, the possibility of favorable outcomes of trade negotiations could be a factor that would provide a boost to economic activity in the future.』
『In particular, participants were mindful that trade tensions were far from settled and that trade uncertainties could intensify again. Continued weakness in global economic growth remained a significant downside risk, and some participants noted that the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit had increased.』
『In their discussion of financial market developments, participants observed that financial conditions remained supportive of economic growth, with borrowing rates low and stock prices near all-time highs.』
金融市場の動向に関しての話で、そらまあ金利下がって株が史上最高値近辺ですからsupportive of economic growthっていうことになりますわな。
『Participants observed that current financial conditions appeared to be premised importantly on expectations that the Federal Reserve would ease policy to help offset the drag on economic growth stemming from the weaker global outlook and uncertainties associated with international trade as well as to provide some insurance to address various downside risks.』
『Participants also discussed the decline in yields on longer-term nominal Treasury securities in recent months.』
長期金利の低下に関するインプリケーションについての議論もしたのか。
『A few participants expressed the concern that the inversion of the Treasury yield curve, as evidenced by the 10-year yield falling below the 3-month yield, had persisted for about two months, which could indicate that market participants anticipated weaker economic conditions in the future and that the Federal Reserve would soon need to lower the federal funds rate substantially in response.』
『The longer-horizon real forward rate implied by TIPS had also declined, suggesting that the longer-run normal level of the real federal funds rate implicit in market prices was lower.』
『Among those participants who commented on financial stability, most highlighted recent credit market developments, the elevated valuations in some asset markets, and the high level of nonfinancial corporate indebtedness.』
『Several participants noted that high levels of corporate debt and leveraged lending posed some risks to the outlook. A few participants discussed the fast growth of private credit markets-a sector not subject to the same degree of regulatory scrutiny and requirements that applies in the banking sector-and commented that it was important to monitor this market.』
『Several participants observed that valuations in equity and corporate bond markets were near all-time highs and that CRE valuations were also elevated.』
『A couple of participants noted that the low level of Treasury yields-a factor seen as supporting asset prices across a range of markets-was a potential source of risk if yields moved sharply higher.』
『However, these participants judged that in the near term, such risks were small in light of the monetary policy outlooks in the United States and abroad and generally subdued inflation. 』
『A few participants expressed the concern that capital ratios at the largest banks had continued to fall at a time when they should ideally be rising and that capital ratios were expected to decline further. Another view was that financial stability risks at present are moderate and that the largest banks would continue to maintain very substantial capital cushions in light of a range of regulatory requirements, including rigorous stress tests.』
『In their discussion of monetary policy decisions at this meeting, those participants who favored a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate pointed to three broad categories of reasons for supporting that action.』
利下げを支持する人の理由、というのがやたら長い箇条書きになっているのは不思議な体裁です。
『・First, while the overall outlook remained favorable, there had been signs of deceleration in economic activity in recent quarters, particularly in business fixed investment and manufacturing. A pronounced slowing in economic growth in overseas economies-perhaps related in part to developments in, and uncertainties surrounding, international trade-appeared to be an important factor in this deceleration. More generally, such developments were among those that had led most participants over recent quarters to revise down their estimates of the policy rate path that would be appropriate to promote maximum employment and stable prices.』
『・Second, a policy easing at this meeting would be a prudent step from a risk-management perspective. Despite some encouraging signs over the intermeeting period, many of the risks and uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook that had been a source of concern in June had remained elevated, particularly those associated with the global economic outlook and international trade. On this point, a number of participants observed that policy authorities in many foreign countries had only limited policy space to support aggregate demand should the downside risks to global economic growth be realized.』
『・Third, there were concerns about the outlook for inflation. A number of participants observed that overall inflation had continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent objective, as had inflation for items other than food and energy. Several of these participants commented that the fact that wage pressures had remained only moderate despite the low unemployment rate could be a sign that the longer-run normal level of the unemployment rate is appreciably lower than often assumed. Participants discussed indicators for longer-term inflation expectations and inflation compensation. A number of them concluded that the modest increase in market-based measures of inflation compensation over the intermeeting period likely reflected market participants' expectation of more accommodative monetary policy in the near future; others observed that, while survey measures of inflation expectations were little changed from June, the level of expectations by at least some measures was low. Most participants judged that long-term inflation expectations either were already below the Committee's 2 percent goal or could decline below the level consistent with that goal should there be a continuation of the pattern of inflation coming in persistently below 2 percent.』
『A couple of participants indicated that they would have preferred a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate at this meeting rather than a 25 basis point reduction.』
キタコレ。
『They favored a stronger action to better address the stubbornly low inflation rates of the past several years, recognizing that the apparent low sensitivity of inflation to levels of resource utilization meant that a notably stronger real economy might be required to speed the return of inflation to the Committee's inflation objective.』
最近のインフレって感応度悪いんだから利下げももっとバシッと行うべき、だそうです。
・反対者は2名以上いますな
その次は据え置きの人。
『Several participants favored maintaining the same target range at this meeting, judging that the real economy continued to be in a good place, bolstered by confident consumers, a strong job market, and a low rate of unemployment. These participants acknowledged that there were lingering risks and uncertainties about the global economy in general, and about international trade in particular, but they viewed those risks as having diminished over the intermeeting period.』
『In addition, they viewed the news on inflation over the intermeeting period as consistent with their forecasts that inflation would move up to the Committee's 2 percent objective at an acceptable pace without an adjustment in policy at this meeting.』
『Finally, a few participants expressed concerns that further monetary accommodation presented a risk to financial stability in certain sectors of the economy or that a reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting could be misinterpreted as a negative signal about the state of the economy.』
『Participants also discussed the timing of ending the reduction in the Committee's aggregate securities holdings in the SOMA.』
ということで次のパラグラフは資産買入のランオフ停止前倒しに関して。
『Ending the reduction of securities holdings in August had the advantage of avoiding the appearance of inconsistency in continuing to allow the balance sheet to run off while simultaneously lowering the target range for the federal funds rate. But ending balance sheet reduction earlier than under its previous plan posed some risk of fostering the erroneous impression that the Committee viewed the balance sheet as an active tool of policy. Because the proposed change would end the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings only two months earlier than previously indicated, policymakers concluded that there were only small differences between the two options in their implications for the balance sheet and thus also in their economic effects.』
『In their discussion of the outlook for monetary policy beyond this meeting, participants generally favored an approach in which policy would be guided by incoming information and its implications for the economic outlook and that avoided any appearance of following a preset course.』
『Most participants viewed a proposed quarter-point policy easing at this meeting as part of a recalibration of the stance of policy, or mid-cycle adjustment, in response to the evolution of the economic outlook over recent months.』
『A number of participants suggested that the nature of many of the risks they judged to be weighing on the economy, and the absence of clarity regarding when those risks might be resolved, highlighted the need for policymakers to remain flexible and focused on the implications of incoming data for the outlook.』
でもって元記事の方は上記URL先にも原題がありますが、 [外部リンク] Rosengren Wants Evidence of Slowdown to Justify Rate Cut By Christopher Condon 2019年8月20日 (URLがクッソ長いのでリンクが途中までになっているように見えますがリンクはしています)
『ANN SAPHIR. Ann Saphir with Reuters. You called it “a midcycle adjustment to policy.” And, I mean, what should we take this to mean, and what message do you mean to send with this move today about future rate moves? 』
質疑応答の最初の方で“a midcycle adjustment to policy.”って言った件についてここで質問が来た訳ですよ、そうしたらパウエル先生こう回答しましてですな、
『CHAIR POWELL. Well, the sense of that is-I mean, that refers back to other times when the FOMC has cut rates in the middle of a cycle. And I’m contrasting it there with the beginning-for example, the beginning of a lengthy cutting cycle. 』
長い期間の利下げサイクルとは違いますねんとかいうもんですから、
『ANN SAPHIR. So we’re not at the beginning of a lengthy cutting cycle?』
と聞きまして(ちなみに初稿版だとこの質問部分が「聞こえませんでした」になっているのも味わいがある)
『CHAIR POWELL. That is not-that’s not what we’re seeing now. That’s not our perspective now or outlook.』
『CRAIG TORRES. Craig Torres from Bloomberg. I’m trying to parse what you’re saying here.』
貴殿の説明を分析しようと試みたのですが、とか理屈がグダグダなので怒りの失礼質問キタコレ。
『On the one hand, you say the policy tilt in the statement has eased financial conditions, and that’s helping the economy. In that tilt, market participants are interpreting this language, “will act as appropriate,” as still being in the statement.』
『And, on the other hand, you say it’s not the start of a-of an easing cycle.』
『Does that mean, you know, with one or two more cuts you’ll be done, and this policy bias comes out of the statement? Or simply that this policy bias will come out of the statement sooner than market participants think?』
一体どっちですねんとな。
『CHAIR POWELL. So it is-as I mentioned, it’s going to depend on the evolving data and the evolving risk picture.』
そこの政策反応関数が分からんという質問にまともに答えていないのですが。
『But as we look at the situation now and the outlook now, what we see is that it’s appropriate to make an adjustment in policy to a somewhat more accommodative stance. That’s what we’re seeing.』
結局何をもって利下げしたかという話になると、
『And that’s what we’re going to be looking-you know, we’ll be looking at incoming data, at all of the-at the risks that I mentioned, and the performance of the U.S. economy, and at low inflation. We’ll be looking at that to make our decisions going forward.』
『SCOTT HORSLEY. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Scott Horsley for NPR. You’ve talked a number of times about the people who feel like they are just recently getting to the punchbowl 10 years into this expansion. Can you elaborate a little bit on how this rate cut is expected to help them? 』
『CHAIR POWELL. Well, I think the best thing for people who are-who are feeling that-and we are getting lots of feedback from people who work and live in low- and moderate income communities to the effect that they’re now feeling the recovery, and, in fact, they haven’t felt a better labor market in anybody’s memory, so this is great to hear. And I guess my view is, the best thing we can do for those people is to sustain the expansion, keep it going, and that’s one of the overarching goals of-of this move and all of our policy moves. There really is no reason why the expansion can’t keep going. Inflation is not troublingly high. If you look at the-at the U.S. economy right now, there’s no sector that’s booming and therefore might bust. You have a fairly well-balanced, in a sense, economy. 』
『Now, the engine, though, is really a consumer economy, which is 70 percent of the economy. The manufacturing economy-the investment and manufacturing part of the economy-is more or less not-not growing much. It’s at a healthy level but not growing much. So-and we hope to help that with this rate cut. But, I would say, overall, we’re trying to sustain the expansion and keep, you know, close to our statutory goals, which are maximum employment and stable prices.』
『DONNA BORAK. Chairman Powell, Donna Borak with CNN. The President has repeatedly called for this rate hike and for the Fed to end the runoff of its balance sheet. What do you say to those that say that the Fed gave into what the President wanted today? And could you also elaborate a little bit further on why the Fed decided to speed up its balance sheet runoff two months earlier today?』
もうやめて!!パウエル議長のライフはゼロよ!!!!という感じですが、まあ回答はお察しの通り。
『CHAIR POWELL. So I gave my?my reasons for?our reasons, really-for doing this. And, you know, just to touch on that again, this action is designed to insure against downside risks to the outlook from weak global growth and trade tensions, offset the negative effect that those factors are already having, and promote a faster return of inflation to 2 percent. That’s what we’ve been talking about all year long, and we’ve gradually moved our policy in the direction of more accommodation. I think what you see is an economy that has reacted well to that. So that’s what we’re doing, and that’s why we’re doing it.』
『We never take into account political considerations. There’s no place in our discussions for that. We also don’t conduct monetary policy in order to prove our independence. We conduct monetary policy in order to-to move as close as possible to our statutory goals, and that’s what we’re always going to do. We’re always going to use our tools that way. And then, at the end, we’ll-you know, we’ll live with the results.』
『In terms of the balance sheet, that was really just a matter of simplicity and consistency. Really nothing more to it than that. 』
「We never take into account political considerations.」とそらまあ答えますし、まあこの辺の話は別に政策的にどうこうという話ではなくて、FOMC記者会見の記者の皆さんの流れるような無慈悲な質問を鑑賞するという趣旨なんですが、まあこれだけ責め立てられるのも100%身から出た錆とは言えさすがにちとカワイソウになってくるという感じです。
・市場の期待を下げる必要があるんじゃないのという質問まで来る
ちょっと先に飛びましてこんな質疑もありました。
『MARTIN CRUTSINGER. Marty Crutsinger, AP. You’ve talked in this press conference about being data dependent going forward, and that this is not the start of a series of rate cuts. But the financial markets seem to think that this is the start of a series of rate cuts, and they’re predicting three, four cuts this year. Is this your effort to try to damp down that-that thing? 』
damp downってのは火力を弱めるとかそういう意味のようで。
『CHAIR POWELL. No. Let me be clear. What I said was, it’s not-it’s not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts. I didn’t-I didn’t say it’s just one or anything like that.』
はあ。
『What I said is, when you think about rate-cutting cycles, they go on for a long time, and the Committee is not seeing that-not seeing us in that place. You would do that if you saw real economic weakness and you thought that the federal funds rate needed to be cut a lot. That’s not what we’re seeing. That’s not what we’re seeing.』
『What we’re seeing is that it’s appropriate to-to adjust policy to a somewhat more accommodative stance over time, and that’s how we’re looking at it. What I said was, it’s not a long cutting cycle-in other words, referring to what we do when there’s a recession or a very severe downturn. That’s-that’s really what I was ruling out. I think, if you look back at other midcycle adjustments, you’ll see-you know, I don’t know that they’ll be, in the end, comparable or not, but you’ll see examples of these.』
『PAUL KIERNAN. Paul Kiernan from Dow Jones Newswires. Thanks for the question, Chairman. As the press conference-as this press conference has gone under way, markets have declined. The Dow is down as much as 400 points. What I’m hearing is a reluctance to provide more guidance around the future path of rates. And I’m wondering if that reflects a greater lack of consensus on the Committee. And, you know, how much consensus do you want to see around these decisions, and how split are people about this? 』
『CHAIR POWELL. You know, you’re right. There’s a range of views on the Committee, and-but the Committee is unified, completely unified on our dedication to making the best policy decisions that we can make. And that means people have a responsibility to do their best thinking and to present that thinking, and I wouldn’t have it any other way. 』
『In terms of the way forward, we will be monitoring the factors that I mentioned, and we laid that out in the-you know, in the postmeeting statement, and that’s the roadmap we’re going to be following going forward. We’re going to be data dependent. We’re going to be, as we always are, doing what we need to do-what we believe we need to do to support the economic expansion. 』
もう開き直っているという感じで「We’re going to be data dependent.」と言ってますが、そこがどうなっているのだという質疑でグダグダになっていたのは昨日ネタにした前半の質疑の通りでして、まあとにかくロジックが崩壊しているから仕方ないんですけど、パツキンヅラからは公開処刑されるわ、会見では吊るし上げられた挙句におんどれの会見のせいで株価が下がっていますがとかまで言われるとか、パウエル大先生苦労が絶えませんなという所ではあります。だいぶ身から出た錆なんですが錆がデカすぎる。
『HEATHER LONG. Hi, Heather Long from the Washington Post. You always say that the Fed is data dependent, and much of the data that we’ve seen since the June meeting has surprised to the upside or at least been in line with expectations. Can you give us a sense of how that better-than-expected data impacted the FOMC’s thinking? And if we keep seeing these upside surprises, does that change or evolve any FOMC thinking going forward? 』
『CHAIR POWELL. So, yes. I mean, I think we-of course, you know, what we do at every meeting, as I noted, is, we do a deep dive into U.S. economic activity and global activity and, certainly, carefully went through U.S. economic activity, which there has been some positive and some negative, but, overall, the U.S. economy has shown resilience during the intermeeting period.』
わざわざ「we do a deep dive into U.S. economic activity」とか言ってる辺りに言い訳感の大変に強いものを感じますが、そのダイブした結果「the U.S. economy has shown resilience」だそうなのに、
『But, again, the-the issue is more the downside risks and then the shortfall in inflation, and we’re trying to address those. So, in addition, going forward, I would say, we’re going to be monitoring those same things. We’ll be monitoring the evolution of trade uncertainty, of global growth, and of low inflation.』
インフレが低めなのと貿易戦争と世界の成長なんですとよ。
『And we’ll also, of course, be watching the performance of the U.S. economy. As I mentioned, it had shown some resilience here to those issues, and we’ll be putting all of that together, and that’s how we’ll be thinking about policy going forward.』
『This is sort of an insurance cut and not a data-dependent cut? And are we now more in the realm of watching headlines of trade talks than we are watching unemployment rate and inflation numbers, or-and growth numbers? What-how do we know what you’re going to do next, and why now in this new regime?』
『CHAIR POWELL. Yes. So I gave three reasons for what we did, and that is to insure against downside risks to the outlook from weak global growth and trade tensions.』
ダウンサイドリスクへの保険だと。
『So that is-in a sense, that is a risk-management point, and that is a bit of insurance.』
リスクマネジメントで保険だと。
『But we also feel like weak global growth and trade tensions are having an effect on the U.S. economy. You see it now in the second quarter: You see weak investment, you see weak manufacturing-so support demand there and also to support return of inflation to 2 percent. But there’s definitely an insurance aspect of it. 』
だったら見通しを下げて利下げしろやという話になるんですがねえ。
『Trade is unusual. We don’t-you know, the thing is, there isn’t a lot of experience in responding to global trade tensions. So it is a-it’s something that we haven’t faced before and that we’re learning by doing.』
どう見ても「learning by doing」とか威張れるような状態じゃなくて単に株価見て右往左往してるだけじゃん。
『And it is not-it’s not exactly the same as watching global growth, where you see growth weakening, you see central banks and governments responding with fiscal policy, and you see growth strengthening, and you see a business cycle. With trade tensions-which do seem to be having a significant effect on financial market conditions and on the economy-they evolve in a different way, and we have to follow them. 』
「With trade tensions-which do seem to be having a significant effect on financial market conditions and on the economy」って言ってるけど結局は株価でオタオタする話なんですが、そもそも論として貿易問題はFEDが何かやったから改善するものではないのであって、「保険的に緩和」とかしたら金融市場がヒャッハーとなるからそれをバックに貿易問題で益々暴れるのであって、貿易問題で馬鹿をやらかしてその結果米国に自業自得のインドラの矢が降り注いで来て実体経済に波及したら金融政策が出て行けばよろしい訳で、こいつら金融市場の不均衡でバブル発生みたいな方に関しては全然事前対処しないくせに、緩和の方ばっかり事前対処したがるのとかどんだけ緩和脳なんだよと小一時間問い詰めたい。などと勝手な悪態。
『And, by the way, I want to be clear here. We play no role whatsoever in assessing or evaluating trade policies other than as-as trade policy uncertainty has an effect on the U.S. economy in the short and medium term. We’re not in any way criticizing trade policy. That’s really not our job.』
『NICK TIMIRAOS. If I could follow up, I guess in May-in May it seemed as if you were setting a higher bar to cut rates: There would need to be a deterioration in the outlook. In June, you seemed to suggest that if the outlook didn’t improve, there might be a rate cut. Where is that bar right now, because I think there’s some confusion about how the Committee is responding.』
『CHAIR POWELL. Yes. So we, as we noted-we noted at the bottom of the statement that language, which really says how we’re thinking about it.』
というのはステートメントの3パラが今後の金利をどうするかという話で、そこの最後のところに「This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.」(直近FOMCステートメント)とある訳ですが、今まで散々っぱら「というデータにディペンデントしないで利下げしたでしょ」って質問されているのでその時点でもう話がみてらんないのですが、
『So it says, as we’re contemplating the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, we’ll continue to monitor the implications of incoming information-and it talks about that language.』
いやだからその見通しと関係ないところで利下げしてるじゃん。
『So, you know, I can’t-all I can tell you is, we’ll be looking at weak global growth. We’ll be looking very carefully to see how that’s happening. And I think you see-you learn-every cycle you learn about these things.』
はあそうですか。
『So we will see whether growth is picking up, whether it’s bottoming out. We’ll see that picture. We’ll also see on trade. You know, we’re going to be seeing-I think we’ve learned a lot on trade in this cycle. I think we’ll continue to learn more, and on inflation we will.』
『So, in addition, the U.S. economy itself is-the performance of the U.S. economy will enter into that. So I would love to be more precise, but with trade, it is a factor that we have to assess in kind of a new way. Those are the things that we’ll be looking at, and-you know, in making our decisions going forward.』
『EDWARD LAWRENCE. Edward Lawrence with Fox Business Network. So a rate hike last December was seen by some economists and the St. Louis Fed president, James Bullard, as a step too far. Now the Fed’s waited about seven months for a rate cut. You said today you were concerned about downside risks. So could some of the weakness on the business side, with that fixed investment and the sluggish side on the business side, be because the Fed waited so long? I want to get your thoughts on that and talk about why you feel that this nudge is the right level. 』
『CHAIR POWELL. Yes. So we don’t hear that from businesses. They don’t come in and say, “We’re not investing because, you know, the federal funds rate is too high.” I haven’t heard that from a business. What you hear is that demand is weak for their products.』
『You see manufacturing being weak all over the world. Investment-business investment is weak. And I wouldn’t lay all of that at the door of trade talks. I think there’s a-there’s a global business cycle happening with manufacturing and investment, and that’s-that’s been, you know, definitely a bigger factor than, certainly, we expected late last year. I think global-global growth started to slow down in the middle of last year, but that has gone on to a greater extent. And, by the way, trade policy uncertainty has also been, I think, more elevated than we anticipated.』
『In terms of, is this the-we believe this is the right move for today, and we think it’s-we think it will serve the three ends that I mentioned. And I’ve already gone over how we’re thinking about going forward.』
[外部リンク] Price and Monetary Policy: Japan's Experience1 Remarks by Yutaka Yamaguchi, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, at a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming between August 26 and 28, 1999. September 2, 1999 Bank of Japan
『For all these reasons, policymakers felt that, for their actions to gain public support, they would need absolutely solid evidence of inflationary potential building up. When such evidence finally emerged in 1989, they quickly seized the moment to reverse the policy.』
『Inflation picked up but peaked in 1990-91 at mid-3%. On the basis of the inflation track record, I would conclude that preemptive policy to achieve sustained price stability would probably have been desirable but must have been very hard to initiate.』
『Professors Bernanke and Gertler indicated in their simulation results that the BOJ should have raised short term interest rates to 8% in 1988 and even higher in the following years. But all through 1988 inflation was pretty close to zero. I don't see how a central bank can increase interest to 8 or 10% when we don't have inflation at all.』
って英文で「I don't see how a central bank can increase interest to 8 or 10% when we don't have inflation at all.」って言っていまして、日本語訳の方は「このように、物価の上昇が全く見られない時に、中央銀行が金利を8%や10%に引き上げるといったことが、はたしてできるものでしょうか。」って表現していますが、これ英文原文の方がバッサリと斬っている感が強いですな(^^)。
『4. Attempts to restrain asset price at later stage would face even greater difficulties. In this regard, market reaction following the BOJ tightening is illuminating.』
『The Tokyo stock market shrugged off the first two rate hikes, continued to rise for six more months and started to fall only after the third rate increase. The lag was even longer for the real estate market to peak out. The pattern of implied forward rates indicated the market's conviction that the rising interest rate would be short-lived, presumably for the reasons I have described above.』
『This episode seems to suggest that, once the asset market gained momentum, it could take more than gentle strikes to break its neck, for monetary policy would have to be adjusted tight enough to match the enhanced state of expectation.』
日本語訳も分かりやすいのですが英文の言い方の方が迫力あるというか露骨というか。
『A firmly imbedded market expectation of continued low interest rate could take strong actions to be corrected. But, when such expectation begins to change, perceived future risk also begins to grow and the market suddenly starts to fall.A self-feeding process tends to develop between weakening market and increasing risk premium.』
『That is why asset market abruptly collapses when somehow turning point arrives, making "soft landing" difficult.』
『In fact Tokyo stock market fell by 40% in one year after the peak; the BOJ's business contacts also confirmed in late 1990 an abrupt shift in the tide in the property market. In other words, if monetary policy targeted on asset price in a situation like Japan of ten years ago, the risk would be that, once the gear is reversed, the combined effects of tight money and asset market correction could well turn out to be a disproportionately large pressure on real activity.』
『JEANNA SMIALEK. Hi, Chair Powell. Jeanna Smialek with the New York Times. Per your statement here, I guess the question is, is there any reason to believe that a 25 basis point cut is going to be sufficient to expediently return inflation to your 2 percent target? And, if not, what are you going to be looking at to convince you that you need to cut rates again? What is the hurdle rate there? 』
『CHAIR POWELL. So I think you have to look at not just the 25 basis point cut, but look at the Committee’s actions over the course of the year.』
これはひどい。
『As I noted in my opening statement, we started off expecting some rate increases, we moved to a patient setting for a few months, and now we’ve moved here. I think what you’ve seen over the course of the year is, as we’ve moved to a more accommodative policy, the economy has actually performed just about as expected with that gradually increasing support.』
『And I think-I wouldn’t take credit for all of that, but I do think that increasing policy support has kept the economy on track and kept the outlook favorable.』
そうやってスタンスを緩和方向に進めていくことによって経済のサポートができた、だそうな。
『In terms of the rest of your question, the Committee is really thinking of this as a way of adjusting policy to a somewhat more accommodative stance to further the three objectives that I mentioned: to insure against downside risks, to provide support to the economy, that those factors are-where factors are pushing down on economic growth, and then to support inflation.』
『So we do think it will serve all of those goals, but again, we’re thinking of it as essentially in the nature of a midcycle adjustment to policy. 』
ここは言い方が良くなくて、「a midcycle adjustment to policy」ってどっち方向へのアジャストメントのサイクルの真ん中なのよというのがよー分からん、まあ本人は今後も緩和度合いを調整するでしょうって言うつもりだったと思うのですが、これだとここでおしまいでそのうち元に戻すのか、今後も下げるのかがよーわからんという感じですが、ご案内のヘッドラインにされてたコメントとかにあったように連続利下げサイクルとは言いたくなかったというのは分かるのだが、だったらスパッと50下げて「しばらく様子見」と言った方が綺麗だったような気がしますけどねえ。まあ元々理屈が無いからシャーナイのだが。
でもって次の質疑。
『MICHAEL MCKEE. Michael McKee from Bloomberg Television and Radio. There’s a perception out there that perhaps, in this case, the Fed is something of a hammer in search of a nail, because the latest consumer spending reports, as you suggested, don’t seem to show any kind of demand problem in the U.S. And when you look at mortgage rates, auto lending rates, they’ve all come down. And so, wondering exactly what problem lower capital costs will solve. 』
『The-the performance of the economy has been reasonably good. The position of the economy is as close to our objectives as it’s been in a long time, and the outlook is also good.』
なのに何で利下げする??
『What we’ve been monitoring since the beginning of the year is, effectively, downside risks to that outlook from weakening global growth, and we see that everywhere: weak manufacturing, weak global growth now, particularly in the European Union and China.』
『In addition, we see trade policy developments, which at times have been disruptive and then have been less so, and also inflation running below target.』
ダウンサイドリスクとインフレがやや低い事を挙げていまして、
『So we see those as threats to what is clearly a favorable outlook, and we see this action as designed to support them and keep that outlook favorable. And, frankly, it is a continuation of what we’ve been doing all year to provide more support against those very same risks. 』
『MICHAEL MCKEE. But the follow-up question is, how does it do that? How does cutting interest rates lower-or, how does cutting interest rates keep that going, since the cost of capital doesn’t seem to be the issue here? 』
追い打ちに対してパウエルセンセの答え。
『CHAIR POWELL. You know, I-I really think it does, and I think the evidence of my eyes tells me that our policy does support-it supports confidence, it supports economic activity, household and business confidence, and through channels that we understand.』
つまり・・・・・・・
『So it will lower borrowing costs. It will-and it will work. And I think you see it. Since-you know, since we noted our vigilance about the situation in June, you saw financial conditions move up, and you saw-I won’t take credit for the whole recovery, but you saw financial conditions move up. You see confidence, which had troughed in June-you saw it move back up. You see economic activity on a healthy basis. It just-it seems to work through confidence channels as well as the mechanical channels that you are talking about. 』
