『Several participants suggested that the Committee's postmeeting statement should provide more clarity about when the recalibration of the level of the policy rate in response to trade uncertainty would likely come to an end.』
『A few participants judged that the expectations regarding the path of the federal funds rate implied by prices in financial markets were currently suggesting greater provision of accommodation at coming meetings than they saw as appropriate and that it might become necessary for the Committee to seek a better alignment of market expectations regarding the policy rate path with policymakers' own expectations for that path.』
ではまあ本日は楽しそうな最初の小見出し2つのうち『Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices』を拝読。
『Committee participants continued their discussions related to the ongoing review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices.』
ということではじまりはじまり。
『Staff briefings provided an assessment of the risk that the federal funds rate could, in some future downturn, be constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) and discussed options for mitigating the costs associated with this constraint.』
『The staff's analysis suggested that the ELB would likely bind in most future recessions, which could make it more difficult for the FOMC to achieve its longer-run objectives of maximum employment and symmetric 2 percent inflation.』
今後のリセッションでは毎度のように名目ゼロ金利制約に引っ掛かる見込みだそうな、ナムナム。
『The staff discussed several options for mitigating ELB risks, including using forward guidance and balance sheet policies earlier and more aggressively than in the past.』
『The staff also illustrated the properties of "makeup" strategies using model simulations.』
出たなメイクアップストラテジー。
『Under such strategies, policymakers would promise to make up for past inflation shortfalls with a sustained accommodative stance of policy that is intended to generate higher future inflation. These strategies are designed to provide accommodation at the ELB by keeping the policy rate low for an extended period in order to support an economic recovery.』
この辺はストラテジーの内容説明。
『Because of their properties both at and away from the ELB, makeup strategies may also more firmly anchor inflation expectations at 2 percent than a policy strategy that does not compensate for past inflation misses. The staff analysis emphasized, however, that the benefits of makeup strategies depend importantly on the private sector's understanding of these strategies and their confidence that future policymakers would follow through on promises to keep policy accommodative.』
『Participants generally agreed with the staff's analysis that the risk of future ELB episodes had likely increased over time, and that future ELB episodes and the reduced effect of resource utilization on inflation could inhibit the Committee's ability to achieve its employment and inflation objectives.』
『The increased ELB risk was attributed in part to structural changes in the U.S. economy that had lowered the longer-run real short-term interest rate and thus the neutral level of the policy rate.』
『In this context, a couple of participants noted that uncertainty about the neutral rate made it especially challenging to determine any appropriate changes to the current framework.』
『In light of a low neutral rate and shortfalls of inflation below the 2 percent objective for several years, some participants raised the concern that the policy space to reduce the federal funds rate in response to future recessions could be compressed further if inflation shortfalls continued and led to a decline in inflation expectations, a risk that was also discussed in the staff analysis. These participants pointed to long, ongoing ELB spells in other major foreign economies and suggested that, to avoid similar circumstances in the United States, it was important to be aggressive when confronted with forces holding inflation below objective.』
『A couple of participants judged that the lack of monetary policy space abroad and the possibility that fiscal space in the United States might be limited reinforced the case for strengthening the FOMC's monetary policy framework as a matter of prudent planning.』
『With regard to the current monetary policy framework, participants agreed that this framework served the Committee well in the aftermath of the financial crisis.』
そらそう言う罠という奴ですが金融危機後の政策対応についての評価な。
『A number of participants noted that the Committee's experience with forward guidance and balance sheet policies would likely allow the Committee to deploy these tools earlier and more aggressively in the event that they were needed.』
と来まして、
『A few indicated that the uncertainty about the effectiveness of these policies was smaller than the uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of a makeup strategy.』
『Participants generally agreed that the current framework also served the Committee well by providing a strong commitment to achieving the Committee's maximum-employment and symmetric inflation objectives.』
はあそうですか。
『Such a commitment was seen as flexible enough to allow the Committee to choose policy actions that best support its objectives in a wide array of economic circumstances.』
『Because of the downside risk to inflation and employment associated with the ELB, most participants were open to the possibility that the dual-mandate objectives of maximum employment and stable prices could be best served by strategies that deliver inflation rates that over time are, on average, equal to the Committee's longer-run objective of 2 percent.』
『Promoting such outcomes may require aiming for inflation somewhat above 2 percent when the policy rate was away from the ELB, recognizing that inflation would tend to be lower than 2 percent when the policy rate was constrained by the ELB.』
『Participants suggested several alternatives for doing so, including strategies that make up for past inflation shortfalls and those that respond more aggressively to below-target inflation than to above-target inflation. In this context, several participants suggested that the adoption of a target range for inflation could be helpful in achieving the Committee's objective of 2 percent inflation, on average, as it could help communicate to the public that periods in which the Committee judged inflation to be moderately away from its 2 percent objective were appropriate.』
『A couple of participants suggested analyzing policies in which there was a target range for inflation whose midpoint was modestly higher than 2 percent or in which 2 percent was an inflation floor; these policies might enhance policymakers' scope to provide accommodation as appropriate when the neutral real interest rate was low.』
『Although ensuring inflation outcomes averaging 2 percent over time was seen as important, many participants noted that the illustrated makeup strategies delivered only modest benefits in the staff's model simulations.』
『These modest benefits in part reflected that the responsiveness of inflation to resource slack had diminished, making it more difficult to provide sufficient accommodation to push inflation back to the Committee's objective in a timely manner.』
『Some participants suggested that the modest effects were particularly pronounced using the FRB/US model and indicated the need for more robustness analysis of simulation results along several dimensions and for further comparison to other alternative strategies. In addition, several participants noted that the implementation of the makeup strategies in the form of either average inflation targeting or price-level targeting in the simulations was tied too rigidly to the details of particular rules.』
何かシミュレーションをもっと検討しましょうとか微妙な怪しさが漂う参加者からの見解。
『An advantage of the current framework over such alternative approaches is that it has provided the Committee with the flexibility to assess a broad range of factors and information in choosing its policy actions, and these actions can vary depending on economic circumstances in order to best achieve the Committee's dual mandate. Similarly, makeup strategies could be implemented more flexibly in order to deliver more accommodation during a future downturn and through the subsequent recovery than what could be achieved with a mechanical makeup rule.』
『Participants also discussed a number of challenges associated with makeup strategies.』
まだメイクアップストラテジーの話が続く。
『Many participants expressed reservations with the makeup strategies analyzed by the staff. Some participants raised the concern that the effective use of the makeup strategies in the form of the average inflation targeting and price-level targeting rules that the staff presented depended on future policymakers following through on commitments to keep policy accommodative for a long time. Such commitments might be difficult for future policymakers to follow through on, especially in situations in which the labor market was strong and inflation was above target.』
『A few participants acknowledged that credibly committing to makeup strategies posed challenges. However, they pointed to the commitments that central banks around the world made to inflation targeting as examples in which similar challenges had been overcome.』
『A couple of participants raised the concern that keeping policy rates low for a long time could lead to excessive risk-taking in financial markets and threaten financial stability.』
『However, a couple of other participants judged that macroprudential tools could be used to help ensure that any overleveraging of households and firms did not threaten the financial system, while monetary policy needed to be focused on achieving maximum employment and symmetric 2 percent inflation.』
『A few participants viewed the communication challenges associated with average-inflation targeting strategies, including the difficulty of conveying the dangers of low inflation to the public, as greater than for some other strategies that use threshold-based forward guidance. Several participants noted that makeup strategies could unduly limit the policy response in situations in which inflation had been running above 2 percent amid signs of an impending economic downturn. Accordingly, these participants favored makeup strategies that only reversed past inflation shortfalls relative to makeup strategies that reversed both past inflation shortfalls and past overruns.』
『Participants continued to discuss the benefits of the Committee's review of the monetary policy framework as well as the Committee's Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which articulates the Committee's approach to monetary policy. As they did at their meeting in July, participants mentioned several issues that this statement might possibly address. These issues included the conduct of monetary policy in the presence of the ELB constraint, the role of inflation expectations in the Committee's pursuit of its inflation goal, the best means of conveying the Committee's balanced approach to monetary policy, the symmetry of its inflation goal, and the time frame over which the Committee aimed to achieve it.』
『Participants expected that they would continue their deliberations on these and other topics pertinent to the review at upcoming meetings. They also generally agreed that the Committee's consideration of possible modifications to its policy strategy, tools, and communication practices would take some time, and that the process would be careful, deliberate, and patient.』
[外部リンク] of the Federal Open Market Committee September 17-18, 2019
今回の議事要旨、一発目に『Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices』という楽しそうな小見出しがありますし、『Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations 』の部分についても今回ばっかりは面白そうなのですが、そんなの読んでると全然オワランチ会長になってしまいますので、例によって例のごとく『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook 』のケツから逆順で読むのでした。
なお、パラグラフ単位で逆順で引用するので文章のつながりが微妙になるかも知れませんので一つよろしく。
・短期金融市場に関する議論もあるでよ
てな訳でよーしパパ逆順インスタント読みするぞー、と思って意気揚々と(嘘)文書に当たりに行きますと、いつもは存在しない小見出し『Participants' Discussion of Recent Money Market Developments 』を発見したのでこれはさすがに読んで進ぜよう(ここは逆順じゃ無くて順番に読みます)。
『The manager pro tem provided a summary of the most recent developments in money markets.』
うむ。
『Open market operations conducted on the previous day had helped to ease strains in money markets, but the EFFR had nonetheless printed 5 basis points above the top of the target range.』
思いっきりど直近の話(当時の)をしております。
『With significant pressures still evident in repo markets and the federal funds market, and in accordance with the FOMC's directive to maintain the federal funds rate within the target range, the Desk conducted another repo operation on the morning of the second day of the meeting.』
はい。
『The staff presented a proposal to lower the IOER rate and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement rate by 5 basis points, relative to the target range for the federal funds rate, in order to foster trading of federal funds within the target range.』
『Participants agreed that developments in money markets over recent days implied that the Committee should soon discuss the appropriate level of reserve balances sufficient to support efficient and effective implementation of monetary policy in the context of the ample-reserves regime that the Committee had chosen.』
『A few participants noted the possibility of resuming trend growth of the balance sheet to help stabilize the level of reserves in the banking system.』
『Participants agreed that any Committee decision regarding the trend pace of balance sheet expansion necessary to maintain a level of reserve balances appropriate to facilitate policy implementation should be clearly distinguished from past large-scale asset purchase programs that were aimed at altering the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's asset holdings in order to provide monetary policy accommodation and ease overall financial conditions.』
『Several participants suggested that such a discussion could benefit from also considering the merits of introducing a standing repurchase agreement facility as part of the framework for implementing monetary policy.』
『With regard to monetary policy beyond this meeting, participants agreed that policy was not on a preset course and would depend on the implications of incoming information for the evolution of the economic outlook.』
『A few participants judged that the expectations regarding the path of the federal funds rate implied by prices in financial markets were currently suggesting greater provision of accommodation at coming meetings than they saw as appropriate and that it might become necessary for the Committee to seek a better alignment of market expectations regarding the policy rate path with policymakers' own expectations for that path.』
『Several participants suggested that the Committee's postmeeting statement should provide more clarity about when the recalibration of the level of the policy rate in response to trade uncertainty would likely come to an end.』
数名(Several)貿易戦争に起因する不確実性に対応した政策金利の変更というのがいつになったら終わるのかという事について、よりクリアに声明文で示すべきとかいう意見もありまして、『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』の最終パラは物凄い勢いでタカになっています。まあアタクシは変人なので逆から読みますが、これ普通に前から読んでいくと印象はまた変わるとは思うのですが、締めの所がこのタカっぷりというのも何ともかんとも。
・50bp下げて更にフォワードガイダンスも入れる方向でというのが2名
でもって一つ前を見ると、
『A couple of participants indicated their preference for a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate at this meeting.』
『These participants suggested that a larger policy move would help reduce the risk of an economic downturn and would more appropriately recognize important recent developments, such as slowing job gains, weakening investment, and continued low values of market-based measures of inflation compensation.』
『In addition, these participants stressed the need for a policy stance-possibly one using enhanced forward guidance-that was sufficiently accommodative to make it unlikely that the United States would experience a protracted period of the kind seen abroad in which the economy became mired in a combination of undesirably low inflation, weak economic activity, and near-zero policy rates. They also argued that it was desirable for the Committee to seek and maintain a level of accommodation sufficient to deliver inflation at 2 percent on a sustained basis and that such a policy would be consistent with inflation exceeding 2 percent for a time.』
『Several participants favored maintaining the existing target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting.』
数名(Several)の参加者は金利の現状維持を主張とな。
『These participants suggested that the baseline projection for the economy had changed very little since the Committee's previous meeting and that the state of the economy and the economic outlook did not justify a shift away from the current policy stance, which they felt was already adequately accommodative.』
『They acknowledged the uncertainties that currently figured importantly in evaluations of the economic outlook, but they contended that the key uncertainties were unlikely to be resolved soon. Furthermore, as they did not believe that these uncertainties would derail the expansion, they did not see further policy accommodation as needed at this time.』
『In this connection, a couple of participants suggested that, if it decided to provide more policy accommodation at the present juncture, the Committee might be taking out too much insurance against possible future shocks, leaving monetary policy with less scope to boost aggregate demand in the event that such shocks materialized.』
『A few of the participants favoring an unchanged target range for the federal funds rate also expressed concern that an easing of monetary policy at this meeting could exacerbate financial imbalances.』
『Many participants also cited the level of inflation or inflation expectations as justifying a reduction of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate at this meeting.』
『Inflation had generally fallen short of the Committee's objective for several years and, notwithstanding some stronger recent monthly readings on inflation, the 12-month rate was still below 2 percent. Some estimates of trend inflation were also below 2 percent. Several participants additionally stressed that survey measures of longer-term inflation expectations and market-based measures of inflation compensation were near historical lows and that these values pointed to the possibility that inflation expectations were below levels consistent with the 2 percent objective or could soon fall below such levels.』
インフレ期待がアガランチ会長でアカンがな(なので利下げじゃ利下げじゃ)という指摘ですな。
『Against this backdrop, participants suggested that a policy easing would help underline policymakers' commitment to the symmetric 2 percent longer-run objective.』
『With inflation pressures muted and U.S. inflation likely being weighed down by global disinflationary forces, policymakers saw little chance of an outsized increase in inflation in response to additional policy accommodation and argued that such an increase, should it occur, could be addressed in a straightforward manner using conventional monetary policy tools.』
『Participants favoring a modest adjustment to the stance of monetary policy at this juncture cited other risks to the economic outlook that further underscored the case for such a move.』
「a modest adjustment to the stance of monetary policy」だそうで。
『As their discussion of risks had highlighted, downside risks had become more pronounced since July: Trade uncertainty had increased, prospects for global growth had become more fragile, and various intermeeting developments had intensified geopolitical risks.』
これは会見でも説明あったリスクについてその要因。
『Against this background, risk-management considerations implied that it would be prudent for the Committee to adopt a somewhat more accommodative stance of policy.』
てな訳で先般の利下げは「a somewhat more accommodative stance of policy」という位置づけですな。
『In addition, a number of participants suggested that a reduction at this meeting in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely better align the target range with a variety of indicators of the appropriate policy stance, including those based on estimates of the neutral interest rate. A few participants observed that the considerations favoring easing were reinforced by the proximity of the federal funds rate to the ELB. If policymakers provided adequate accommodation while still away from the ELB, this course of action would help forestall the possibility of a prolonged ELB episode.』
『Participants noted that there had been little change in their economic outlook since the July meeting and that incoming data had continued to suggest that the pace of economic expansion was consistent with the maintenance of strong labor market conditions.』
『However, a couple of participants pointed out that data revisions announced in recent months implied that the economy had likely entered the year with somewhat less momentum than previously thought. In addition, data received since July had confirmed the weakening in business fixed investment and exports. One risk that the economy faced was that the softness recorded of late in firms' capital formation, manufacturing, and exporting activities might spread to their hiring decisions, with adverse implications for household income and spending.』
2名はもう少し厳しい見方をしております。
『Participants observed that such an eventuality was not embedded in their baseline outlook; however, a couple of them indicated that this was partly because they assumed that an appropriate adjustment to the policy rate path would help forestall that eventuality. Several also noted that, because monetary policy actions affected economic activity with a lag, it was appropriate to provide the requisite policy accommodation now to support economic activity over coming quarters.』
『In their consideration of the monetary policy options at this meeting, most participants believed that a reduction of 25 basis points in the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate. In discussing the reasons for such a decision, these participants pointed to considerations related to the economic outlook, risk management, and the need to center inflation and inflation expectations on the Committee's longer-run objective of 2 percent.』
