[外部リンク] received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate.』(今回) 『Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate.』(前回)
総括判断は不変。
『Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although household spending has been rising at a strong pace, business fixed investment and exports remain weak.』(今回) 『Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although household spending has been rising at a strong pace, business fixed investment and exports have weakened.』(前回)
『On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.』(今回) 『On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.』(前回)
インフレ、インフレ期待の文言に変化はありません。
・第2パラグラフ:25bp利下げ、act as appropriateを削除ですがさて・・・・・・・
『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.』(今回) 『Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.』(前回)
ここは決まり文句なので同じ。
『In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent.』(今回) 『In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-3/4 to 2 percent.』(前回)
利下げする背景の文言今回も同じで、「implications of global developments for the economic outlook」と「muted inflation pressures」となっています。先日ネタにしたクラリダの講演も同じでしたな。
『This action supports the Committee's view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain.』(今回)
『This action supports the Committee's view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain.』(前回)
『The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.』(今回)
『As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.』(前回)
とは言いましても「will act as appropriate」を外しているので、利下げバイアスは相当外したつもりだと思うのよね。まあ確かにこの程度だったら予想の範囲内って事なのかも知れませんが、何ちゅうか今回のFOMCは利下げはするにしてもその出し方のコンセンサスがあるのか無いのかさっぱり分からなくて、まあそういう時は考えても無駄なので考えないようにしていたのですが、これだと12月利下げはいったん否定する形になった筈なんですが(まあ株式市場ちゃんは金融緩和相場じゃなくて業績相場じゃヒャッハーってやっているんですかねえ)、と自分が分からん自慢をしてもシャーナイですかそうですか。
なお、政策金利を動かすと先行き経済見通しの文言が貧弱になるのは仕様なので仕方ありません。
・第3パラグラフ:例によって全文一致
先行きの政策パスを示す文言が最近第2パラグラフの方に移動した感がある。
『In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.』(今回)
『In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.』(前回)
『Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; and Randal K. Quarles. Voting against this action were: Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the target range at 1-3/4 percent to 2 percent.』(今回)
『Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair, John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; and Randal K. Quarles. Voting against the action were James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent; and Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred to maintain the target range at 2 percent to 2-1/4 percent.』(前回)
The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on October 30, 2019:
・The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to lower the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances to 1.55 percent, effective October 31, 2019.』
[外部リンク] of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Remarks October 30, 2019
・利下げの理由は今回も同じっぽい言い方
声明文がそうなのですからそうなのでしょうが。
『My colleagues at the Federal Reserve and I are dedicated to serving the American people. We do this by steadfastly pursuing the goals that Congress has given us?maximum employment and stable prices. We are committed to making the best decisions we can, based on facts and objective analysis.』
この辺はどうでも良い。
『Today, we decided to lower the interest rates for the third time this year. We took this step to help keep the U.S. economy strong in the face of global developments and to provide some insurance against ongoing risks. As I will explain shortly, the policy adjustments we have made since last year are providing-and will continue to provide-meaningful support to the economy. We believe that monetary policy is in a good place. 』
ということで今回も「some insurance against ongoing risks」だがインシャランスで3回も利下げするのかよという感じですが。
『The U.S. economy is in its 11th year of expansion, and the baseline outlook remains favorable. The overall economy is growing at a moderate rate. Household spending continues to be strong-supported by a healthy job market, rising incomes, and solid consumer confidence. In contrast, business investment and exports remain weak, and manufacturing output has declined over the past year. Sluggish growth abroad and trade developments have been weighing on those sectors. Looking ahead, we continue to expect the economy to expand at a moderate rate, reflecting solid household spending and supportive financial conditions.』
『And wages have been rising, particularly for lower-paying jobs. People who live and work in low- and middle-income communities tell us that many who have struggled to find work are now getting opportunities to add new and better chapters to their lives.』
と低所得者の方々も恩恵がという涙ぐましいアピールをしております。次のパラグラフに飛びまして、
『Inflation continues to run below our symmetric 2 percent objective. Over the 12 months through August, total PCE inflation was 1.4 percent and core inflation was 1.8 percent. Inflation pressures remain muted, and indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are at the lower end of their historic ranges. We are mindful that continued below-target inflation could lead to an unwelcome downward slide in long-term inflation expectations. However, against the backdrop of a strong economy and supportive monetary policy, we expect inflation will rise to 2 percent.』
『Overall, we continue to see sustained expansion of economic activity, a strong labor market, and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective as most likely. While this has been our outlook for quite some time, our views about the path of interest rates that will best achieve these outcomes have changed significantly over the past year. As I mentioned, weakness in global growth and trade developments have weighed on the economy and pose ongoing risks. These factors, in conjunction with muted inflation pressures, have led us to lower our assessment of the appropriate level of the federal funds rate over the past year. In both July and September, we reduced the target rate for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point, and we did so again today, bringing the range to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. 』
この辺は今までこうしていましたという話なのでどうでも良い。
『The policy adjustments we have made to date will continue to provide significant support for the economy. Since monetary policy operates with a lag, the full effects of these adjustments on economic growth, the job market, and inflation will be realized over time.』
『We see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook of moderate economic growth, a strong labor market, and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective.』
『We believe monetary policy is in a good place to achieve these outcomes. Looking ahead, we will be monitoring the effects of our policy actions, along with other information bearing on the outlook, as we assess the appropriate path of the target range for the fed funds rate.』
『Of course, if developments emerge that cause a material reassessment of our outlook, we would respond accordingly. Policy is not on a preset course.』
以下は『Let me end with a few words about our technical monetary policy operations. 』ということでリザーブ拡大に関して「これはテクニカルです」というのをこの前のクラリダ副議長の講演とどうようの説明で強調している部分なので割愛します。
『President Mario Draghi’s term draws to a close on 31 October. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian President Sergio Mattarella were among those who spoke at a farewell event held in his honour on 28 October.』
[外部リンク] remarks Remarks by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, at the farewell event in his honour Frankfurt am Main, 28 October 2019
『This year marks two decades of monetary union, which is by any measure a momentous anniversary. Not so long ago, the euro area economy was scarred by a level of unemployment probably unseen since the Great Depression, and fundamental questions were being asked about whether the euro would survive. Today 11 million more people are in work. Public trust in the euro has risen to its highest level ever. Across the euro area, policymakers are reaffirming that the euro is irreversible.』
『But I see today more as an occasion to reflect than to celebrate.』
『The euro is an eminently political project, a fundamental step towards the goal of greater political integration, which found its economic justification in the parlous state of European economies in the mid-1980s. Unemployment had risen from 2.6% in 1973 to 9.2% in 1985 and growth had slowed significantly in the 12 countries that would go on to form the euro area.』
うむ。
『What the visionary leaders of that era saw, however, was that Europe had a powerful tool at its disposal to raise growth: to transform its common market into a single market. Removing existing barriers to trade and investment could reverse the decline in economic potential and bring more people back into work.』
『Yet the Single Market was always about more than just this. It also aimed to protect people from some of the costs of the changes that would inevitably arise. Unlike the wider process of globalisation, it allowed Europe to impose its values on economic integration - to build a market that, to the extent possible, was free and just. Common rules would create trust between countries, give the weak recourse against the strong and provide safeguards for workers.』
『The Single Market, in this sense, was a bold attempt at “managed globalisation”. It combined competition with levels of consumer and social protection unseen in the rest of the world.』
欧州単一市場は「managed globalisation」とな。
『But there was one type of unfair practice that the Single Market could not prohibit: competitive devaluations. That prospect would undermine the mutual trust that was critical for the Single Market to survive and for the project of greater political integration to progress.』
『Freely floating currencies were therefore not an option, and fixed exchange rates would not work as capital became more mobile within Europe, as the ERM crisis in 1992-3 proved.』
『The answer was to create a single currency: one market with one money. 』
『This construct has been largely successful: incomes across the continent have materially increased, integration and value chains have developed to an extent unimaginable 20 years ago, and the Single Market has survived intact through the worst crisis since the 1930s.[1]』
とは言え統合のドサクサで南欧は物価上がったりしてフリクションはあったと思う。
『But the past 20 years have taught us two vital lessons for a successful monetary union.』
2つのレッスンとは?
『The first concerns monetary policy. 』
『When the ECB was established, its dominant concern was to keep inflation down. The ECB was a new central bank with no track record, so its policy framework was expressly designed to build strong anti-inflationary credibility. It achieved this quickly, and it is to the tremendous credit of the ECB’s early leaders that its first decade went so smoothly. 』
『But no one could have foreseen that the environment facing monetary policy globally was soon to abruptly reverse: that inflationary forces would turn into deflationary ones.』
『In all advanced economies, this called for a new paradigm for central banking, which comprised two elements: the determination to fight deflation as strongly as inflation, and flexibility in the choice of instruments to do so.』
『In other words, the US has had both a capital markets union and a counter-cyclical fiscal policy. The euro area had no capital markets union and a pro-cyclical fiscal policy.』
と、EMUに関してはまだまだという話をしておりまして、次が財政統合の話で、
『The road towards a fiscal capacity will most likely be a long one. History shows that budgets have rarely been created for the general purpose of stabilisation, but rather to deliver specific goals in the public interest. In the US, it was the need to overcome the Great Depression that led to the expansion of the federal budget in the 1930s. Perhaps, for Europe, it will require an urgent cause such as mitigating climate change to bring about such collective focus. 』
まだまだ先は長いという認識をしながらも、
『Whichever path is taken, it is plain to see that now is the time for more Europe, not less. I mean this not in an axiomatic way, but in the truest traditions of federalism. Where results can best be delivered by national policies, let it stay that way. But where we can only deliver on the legitimate concerns of the public by working together, we need Europe to be stronger. 』
ということで、財政統合も含めたユーロ圏統合の話を思いっきりしておりまして、その重要性は、
『For us Europeans, in a globalised world, a true sovereignty that meets people’s needs for security and prosperity can be achieved only by working together.[6]』
『As Chancellor Merkel has said, “we Europeans have to take our destiny into our own hands if we want to survive as a community”.[7]』
ECBがドラギモードになっておる。 [外部リンク] Farewell President Draghi』
『President Mario Draghi’s term draws to a close on 31 October. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian President Sergio Mattarella were among those who spoke at a farewell event held in his honour on 28 October.』
ブラックアウト前の物件なので先々週末とかのもので誠に申し訳ございません(一々遅れておりますな反省)。 [外部リンク] 18, 2019 U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At "Late Cycle Investing: Opportunity and Risk" Fixed-Income Management 2019, a conference sponsored by the CFA Institute and the CFA Society of Boston, Boston, Massachusetts
なおこの講演自体はクッソ短いので途中を飛ばさず全部読んでみますね。
・米国経済は順調だが「明らかなリスク」があるという毎度の説明
『Thank you for the opportunity to participate in this CFA Institute conference on fixed-income management. Before we begin our conversation, I would like to share a few thoughts about the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy.1』
『The U.S. economy is in a good place, and the baseline outlook is favorable. The median expectation from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' most recent Summary of Economic Projections is for GDP growth to be around 2 percent in 2019, for growth to continue near this pace next year, and for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation to rise gradually to our symmetric 2 percent objective.2 The unemployment rate, at 3.5 percent, is at a half-century low, and wages are rising broadly in line with productivity growth and underlying inflation. There is no evidence to date that a strong labor market is putting excessive cost-push pressure on price inflation.』
『Business fixed investment has slowed notably since last year, exports are contracting on a year-over-year basis, and indicators of manufacturing activity are weakening. Global growth estimates continue to be marked down, and global disinflationary pressures cloud the outlook for U.S. inflation.』
『U.S. inflation remains muted. Over the 12 months through August, PCE inflation is running at 1.4 percent, and core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is running at 1.8 percent.』
『Turning now to monetary policy, at both its July and September meetings, the FOMC voted to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.3 With these decisions, the current target range for the federal funds rate is 1.75 to 2 percent, which compares with the range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent that prevailed between December 2018 and July 2019.』
はい。
『The Committee took these actions to provide a somewhat more accommodative policy in response to muted inflation pressures and the risks to the outlook I mentioned earlier.』
ということで、現状のsomewhat more accommodative policyですが、先に「muted inflation pressures」の方が言及されていまして、その次に「risks to the outlook」と来ています。さすがに「リスクに対する保険」というだけでは3回も4回も利下げするのは理屈として無理があるという認識ですわな、と思いますし、物価上昇圧力が弱いから利下げというのを入れておくのは、まあ今後も利下げをする言い訳にはなりますので、そういう点ではこのクラリダ講演出て(講演後の話の方で反応したのかも知れませんが)利下げ路線は確認できた、って解釈をするのは自然ですし、物価の方を前面に出す理屈なら別に利下げを次回で打ち止めにする理由もないという事になります。実際にFOMCでどのようにまとめてくるのかというとこれはまた反対も多いですし、そもそもメイクアップストラテジー自体がオーソライズされたものでもないですし、まあ一応シンメトリックターゲットとか言っているので、シンメトリックだから多少の上振れを容認というのがそこには含意されていますから、その線でコアPCEが1.8%でも低いって言い切るんでしょうが、ここはさっきも申し上げたように経済物価認識ではなくて政策運営のストラテジー論議になるので、どこまで押し切るつもりなのかとかその辺も良く分からんですな。
『Looking ahead, monetary policy is not on a preset course, and the Committee will proceed on a meeting-by-meeting basis to assess the economic outlook as well as the risks to the outlook, and it will act as appropriate to sustain growth, a strong labor market, and a return of inflation to our symmetric 2 percent objective.』
『Turning now to the framework under which the Federal Reserve operates in financial markets, in September of this year, shocks in the repurchase agreement (repo) market put upward pressure on money market rates, and these pressures spilled over into the federal funds market. In response to these developments, the Federal Reserve on September 17 initiated a program of repurchase operations to provide liquidity sufficient to keep the federal funds rate within the desired target range. These operations have been successful in achieving this goal.』
ここは9月にレポ金利が上がってFFにも影響したのでシステムレポを実施したというお話ですな。
『As the FOMC announced in January 2019, the Committee seeks to operate with a level of bank reserves that is sufficiently ample to ensure that control of the federal funds rate is achieved primarily by the setting of our administered rates and is not, over the longer term, reliant on frequent and large open market operations.4 In July, the FOMC concluded the program of balance sheet reduction in place since October 2017 and indicated then that, after a time, it would commence increasing its securities holdings to maintain reserves at a level consistent with an ample-reserves regime.』
『The FOMC announced on October 11 that it would seek to maintain, over time, a level of bank reserves at or somewhat above the level that prevailed in early September, a level that we believe is sufficient to operate an ample-reserves regime.5 This week, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York began a program of purchasing Treasury bills in the secondary market. This program will continue at least into the second quarter of next year and is designed to achieve-and, over time, maintain-ample reserve balances at or above the level that prevailed in early September.』
『In addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to conduct term and overnight repo operations at least through January to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample even during periods of temporary, but pronounced, increases in our nonreserve liabilities, and to mitigate the risk that money market pressures adversely affect monetary policy implementation.』
『It is important to note that the open market operations we have announced are technical, "Central Banking 101" operations and should not be conflated with the large-scale asset purchase programs that the Federal Reserve deployed after the financial crisis.』
『In those programs, the Federal Reserve was seeking to ease financial conditions by lowering term premiums via its purchases of long-term Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. By contrast, the program announced on October 11 will concentrate its purchases in Treasury bills. The technical measures we are undertaking do not represent a change in the stance of monetary policy, which we continue to implement by adjusting the target range for the federal funds rate.』
『Finally, I would like to say a few words about the monetary policy framework review we are undertaking this year. This review of our monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications is the first of its kind for the Federal Reserve.』
ということで政策フレームワークの見直しの件。
『Public engagement, unprecedented in scope for the Fed, is an important part of this effort. Through our Fed Listens events, we have been hearing a diverse range of perspectives not only from academic experts, but also from representatives of consumer, labor, business, community, and other groups.』
『We will draw on these insights as we assess how best to achieve and maintain maximum employment and price stability in the most robust fashion possible. In July, we began discussing issues associated with the review at our FOMC meetings. We will continue reporting on our discussions in the meeting minutes and share our conclusions when we finish the review during the first half of next year.6』
『The IMF just at their last meeting raised concerns about the effects of low interest rates on the financial system, so my first question would be: what makes you so confident that more of negative rates and quantitative easing or asset purchases is doing more good than harm?(後半割愛)』
『President Draghi: Well, the IMF didn't say that the negative rates are ineffective.』
IMFはマイナス金利が効果は無いと言っている訳ではない(キリッ)。
『As a matter of fact, the overall assessment of negative rates is generally positive. For us, it's very positive; it's been a very positive experience. Negative rates have stimulated the economy and affected positively employment, and so all in all we're exactly in the direction we wanted them to be.』
『But the IMF also raised concerns about potential side effects of very negative rates for a long time. The discussion really didn't go into too much detail, but we are also aware of that and we are monitoring these risks. I should say that first of all we should distinguish different categories: banks, insurance companies, pension funds and other intermediaries. The overall assessment has been clearly positive. In other words, the improvements in the economy have more than offset negative side effects from low rates. The fact that we are monitoring this constantly is shown by our decision in early September of introducing a tiering system, which basically partly compensates the banks from the negative rates.(後半割愛)』
『(前半割愛)My second question would be on your legacy and whether you feel it's been tarnished by the recent discussions, which were unusually public, about the rift in the Governing Council and the disagreement about the policy action taken?』
『(前半割愛)Now, your second question: frankly, the answer is no. We have discussions, everybody has discussions, all jurisdictions have disagreements when monetary policy decisions come to be discussed. These disagreements are often made public, often they are not, so I think it's not been the first time. I've taken this as part and parcel of the ongoing debate and discussions.』
議論があって見解が分かれるのは当然ですので無問題、とまあそういうのは当然ではありますが。
・経済の見立て自体は割と弱めっぽく見えます
ちょっと行くとこんな質問が。
『(前半割愛)Second question is about what's been happening on the market since your September meeting. Interest rates have gone up, market-based inflation expectations have gone down. Are you worried about this? Is the market misreading your policy? Or are you comfortable with what the markets are pricing in?』
『(前半割愛)On your second question. Basically, let's ask ourselves: what was the main goal of the September monetary policy decisions? It was to cement the accommodative monetary policy stance that was embedded in the expectations as they had been affected by the regularly, continuously weakening medium-term outlook.』
9月の決定は金融緩和スタンスを固めるためのものですよ。
『In the Governing Council today, the discussion felt that this has been very largely achieved. In other words, we saw the flattening of the yield curve, we saw the now complete transmission of a lower deposit facility rate into lower short-term rates. What we have observed there is partly due to the fact that there may be a part of these expectations which was not warranted by the weakening economic outlook, which went in a sense beyond the economic developments which might have been disappointing. But that's a very small part.』
『The second and probably more important reason for the developments we've seen is the overall uncertainty. In one way, one has the sense that somehow the lower likelihood of a hard Brexit over a cliff edge has improved the overall situation. On the other, the uncertainty is still there. And by the way, on this specific point, it's true that it's improved in the short term. The likelihood of having a cliff edge has gone down.』
『At the same time, the medium-term uncertainty is considered with concern, and the rest of the geopolitical uncertainty has continued to affect markets. I would read the market developments in this way. Actually, I don't think the market misread; actually, the market showed that they understood perfectly well our reaction function.』
とは言え中期的な不確実性は継続している、という話でして、次の人がこんな質問をしていまして、
『The Bundesbank has recently said that they see a chance of a German recession this year. Given the discord among Governing Council members, do you feel that you have the same number of options should Germany pull other countries into some kind of a downturn?(後半割愛)』
『President Draghi: Now, on your first question let me say this: unfortunately everything that's happened in September since our monetary policy decisions has shown abundantly that the Governing Council's determination to act in a substantive manner was justified.』
『We had all kinds of survey indicators and now also some - few, but some - data showing further weakening of the economy. Just one number that I remember is the PMI in manufacturing is now at the lowest level since 2012. Another point of observation that I would say not only we - but everybody - use to assess the resilience of the economy, is to look at what extent the weakness in the manufacturing sector is actually spreading to the services sector. Until a month-and-a-half, two months ago, we could say the service sector was fully resilient. Now we're seeing the PMI in services also declining sharply. I think it was in September, really. Then we have many other indices pointing in that direction. Now, regardless of the developments in the German economy, I think that the decisions taken in September fully justify the continuation of an accommodative monetary policy stance and the maintaining of favourable financing conditions for the non-financial corporations, companies, and the small and medium-sized enterprises.』
『A couple of similar questions in the same kind of vein. First question is: what's your biggest regret, Mario?』
『The second one is: what advice are you giving to Christine Lagarde - that you can tell us about anyway?』
という質問に対して、
『President Draghi: Well, I'm sorry I can't answer either question. Saying that, I always focus on things that can be done, not things that you can't change. You can't change the past unless you're a historian, so I focus on what's being done and assessed by facts. 』
この答えはカッコイイですな、まああの笑顔で言われると騙されている感も無きにしも非ずだが(^^)。
『Well, the second question I'll answer immediately: no advice is needed. She knows perfectly well what she has to do. By the way, she has a long period of time ahead during which she will have to form her own view, together with the Governing Council, about what to do. But I'll stop here, really, because this question is going to pop up again and again; how do you judge the past? If nobody is asking this question, I'll come back to you later.』
うーんこの格好良さ。
別の人からはこんなのが、
『(前半割愛)The second question regarding maybe your future: the question was asked to your predecessor, what you will do after being the ECB President. Mr Trichet said, “I have four children and want to take care of them and I want to read some poetry” Can you tell us, maybe share with us, what you will do in the next future?』
『(前半割愛)On the next question, as you know generally speaking, I don't have any set idea about that, but if you want more information, just ask my wife. She would know. I hope she does.』
(^^)。
ちなみに質疑の最後にご挨拶がありまして、
『President Draghi: So, I should thank you and the thanks are actually substantive; they are not formal only, because of what I just said about communication. Communication has become a tool of monetary policy, so your interaction has been essential in our monetary policy decisions all throughout these eight years. The other thing, frankly, is that with your inquisitive questions, you have stimulated our striving towards greater transparency and greater candour. Again compare to the last 20 years - communication in central banks, and how it changed. I think it did change for a great part because of your role. I don't think that by themselves, central bankers would have changed communication if left free to be opaque. So thank you for that. Thank you very much and all the best to all of you.』
『At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively.』
MROと上下ファシリティ金利は据え置き。
『The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.』
inflation outlookがrobustlyにprojection horizonの間に2%に上がっていくのの十分とみられる時期まで政策金利水準を現状またはより低い水準に維持しますよ、ということで「at their present or lower」の文言も順当に維持。
『As decided at the last Governing Council meeting in September, net purchases will be restarted under the Governing Council’s asset purchase programme (APP) at a monthly pace of ユーロ20 billion as from 1 November. The Governing Council expects them to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates.』
『The Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.』
資産規模の維持に関しては利上げをしてからもかなりの期間(for an extended period of time)行うので償還再投資はそれはそれで実施しますという話で、ここAPP再開の話と(9月の時点でそういう建付けになっているので別に今回変更とかそういう話ではないが)別になっているのがチャーミングですが、今回は前回の予告通りにAPP再開しただけで追加なんとかは無しとなり、FEDは煽られなくて良かったですねという風情ではあるのですがさてFEDはどう出るんでしょうかね。別に据え置きで良いじゃんとは思うが、たぶん利下げしないと許さんという感じでしょうからねえ。
Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 24 October 2019
ちなみに前回はこちら(Q&Aあり、今回のは今朝の時点ではQ&A無しです) [外部リンク] and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference.』
この文字列を見るだけで声が頭の中で再生される(なお今回のライブはまだ見ていない)。
『We will now report on the outcome of today’s meeting of the Governing Council, which was also attended by the Commission Vice-President, Mr Dombrovskis, and the incoming President, Ms Lagarde.』
ラガルドさんもご出席とな。
『Based on our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We expect them to remain at their present or lower levels until we have seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within our projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics.』
『As decided at our last meeting in September, we will restart net purchases under our asset purchase programme (APP) at a monthly pace of ユーロ20 billion as from 1 November. We expect them to run for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of our policy rates, and to end shortly before we start raising the key ECB interest rates.』
『We also intend to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when we start raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.』
と、ここまでは声明文にあった話の通り。
『The Governing Council reiterated the need for a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy for a prolonged period of time to support underlying inflation pressures and headline inflation developments over the medium term.』
『In particular, the Governing Council’s forward guidance will ensure that financial conditions adjust in accordance with changes to the inflation outlook.』
『In any case, the Governing Council continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry.』
とまあこうなっていまして、前回追加緩和したときはこういう順序になっておりました。
『The Governing Council reiterated the need for a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy for a prolonged period of time and continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry. 』(前回)
『The incoming data since the last Governing Council meeting in early September confirm our previous assessment of a protracted weakness in euro area growth dynamics, the persistence of prominent downside risks and muted inflation pressures. At the same time, ongoing employment growth and increasing wages continue to underpin the resilience of the euro area economy. The comprehensive package of policy measures that we decided at our last meeting provides substantial monetary stimulus, which will contribute to a further easing in borrowing conditions for firms and households. This will support the euro area expansion, the ongoing build-up of domestic price pressures and, thus, the sustained convergence of inflation to our medium-term inflation aim.』
『Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Euro area real GDP growth was confirmed at 0.2%, quarter on quarter, in the second quarter of 2019, following a rise of 0.4% in the previous quarter. Incoming economic data and survey information continue to point to moderate but positive growth in the second half of this year. This slowdown in growth mainly reflects the ongoing weakness of international trade in an environment of persistent global uncertainties, which continue to weigh on the euro area manufacturing sector and are dampening investment growth.』(今回)
『Let me now explain our assessment in greater detail, starting with the economic analysis. Euro area real GDP increased by 0.2%, quarter on quarter, in the second quarter of 2019, following a rise of 0.4% in the previous quarter. Incoming economic data and survey information continue to point to moderate but positive growth in the third quarter of this year. This slowdown in growth mainly reflects the prevailing weakness of international trade in an environment of prolonged global uncertainties, which are particularly affecting the euro area manufacturing sector.』
『At the same time, the services and construction sectors remain resilient, despite some moderation. The euro area expansion is supported by favourable financing conditions, further employment gains in conjunction with rising wages, the mildly expansionary euro area fiscal stance and the ongoing - albeit somewhat slower - growth in global activity.』(今回)
『At the same time, the services and construction sectors show ongoing resilience and the euro area expansion is also supported by favourable financing conditions, further employment gains and rising wages, the mildly expansionary euro area fiscal stance and the ongoing - albeit somewhat slower - growth in global activity.』(前回)
ゆうとることは基本的に同じとみた。
『The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain on the downside. In particular, these risks pertain to the prolonged presence of uncertainties, related to geopolitical factors, rising protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets.』(今回)
『The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain tilted to the downside. These risks mainly pertain to the prolonged presence of uncertainties, related to geopolitical factors, the rising threat of protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets.』(前回)
前回はスタッフのマクロエコノミックプロジェクションがあったのでその話が入っていますがそこは飛ばして比較してみました。今回リスクが「tilted to the downside」を「on the downside」に変えたのって最早ネイティブ英語使いじゃないとよくわからんのですが、ダウンサイドに傾いているって言ってたのがダウンサイドって言いきり型にしたんだからこれダウンサイドリスク警戒度は上がっているということになるんかいな、よー分からんけど。
『Euro area annual HICP inflation decreased from 1.0% in August 2019 to 0.8% in September, reflecting lower food and energy price inflation. On the basis of current futures prices for oil, headline inflation is likely to decline slightly further before rising again at the end of the year. Measures of underlying inflation remained generally muted and indicators of inflation expectations stand at low levels. While labour cost pressures have strengthened amid tighter labour markets, the weaker growth momentum is delaying their pass-through to inflation. Over the medium term inflation is expected to increase, supported by our monetary policy measures, the ongoing economic expansion and robust wage growth.』(今回)
『According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation was 1.0% in August 2019, unchanged from July. Lower energy inflation was offset by higher food inflation, while the rate of HICP inflation excluding food and energy was unchanged. On the basis of current futures prices for oil, headline inflation is likely to decline before rising again towards the end of the year. Measures of underlying inflation remained generally muted and indicators of inflation expectations stand at low levels. While labour cost pressures strengthened and broadened amid high levels of capacity utilisation and tightening labour markets, their pass-through to inflation is taking longer than previously anticipated. Over the medium term underlying inflation is expected to increase, supported by our monetary policy measures, the ongoing economic expansion and robust wage growth.』(前回)
頭から途中のMeasures of underlying inflation云々の手前の所までは基本的にそんなに政策判断に影響する話にはならないのでパスして良いのですが、それ以下の所を見ますと、基調的インフレの見通し自体はゆうとることは同じなのですが、労働市場の認識に関する部分はタイトな状況であるという話を今回の方がすっきりと言っているので、その点の認識は強まっている、ということになるんでしょうな、よー知らんけど。
URLがなげえよ。(途中の所までしかリンクしていないように見えますがちゃんとリンクしている筈ですので宜しゅうに) [外部リンク] rate unchanged at -0.25 per cent
『In line with the forecast from September, the Executive Board has therefore decided to leave the repo rate unchanged at -0.25 per cent. As before, the forecast indicates that the interest rate will most probably be raised in December to zero percent.』
(;∀;)イイハナシタ゛ナー
とは言いましても、スウェーデンはんの場合は
Forecast for Swedish inflation, GDP, unemployment and the repo rate*
本文 [外部リンク] Economic Conditions and the Implications for Monetary Policy” Eric S. Rosengren President & Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Boston American Economic Challenges Symposium, University of Wisconsin-Madison Madison, Wisconsin October 11, 2019
図表(本文読むとき図表をやたら駆使するので図表も並べておかないとアレ) [外部リンク] Friday, we all noted with interest the publication of the September employment report from the U.S. Department of Labor.1 Interpretation of the report seems to have varied, depending on the observer. To those concerned with and focused on risks to the economic outlook, the payroll-employment number of 136,000 - which is slower growth than earlier this year - as well as the weakness in the manufacturing sector, supported the narrative that tariffs and weakness globally are slowing down the domestic economy. However, others noted that the preceding months were revised a bit higher, the unemployment rate had declined to 3.5 percent - a nearly 50-year low - and that slower employment growth may instead reflect an economy growing beyond capacity and facing hiring constraints associated with a very tight labor market.』
先日の雇用統計に関しては「見る人によって解釈は分かれるでしょ」という評価をしていますが、
『My own view is that the September employment report highlights trends we have been seeing since the spring: the presence of elevated downside risks, but actual economic outcomes that are not much different than what most forecasters expected six months ago or longer. 』
『To be sure, the economy faces a number of downside risks. In an already slowing global economy, the imposition of tariffs and the prospect of additional tariffs are together resulting in slower exports and weakness in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Indeed, the high frequency incoming economic data have been consistent with a slowdown that is largely concentrated in manufacturing - which has reduced business fixed investment, as firms wrestle with the implications of higher trade barriers. In addition, geopolitical concerns remain elevated. The recent attack on Saudi oil production and the potential for a difficult Brexit, in a Europe that is already growing slowly, highlight that the global recovery faces risks that make it somewhat fragile.』
リスクについては高まっていることは認めていて、それによって企業の投資が減速しているとか輸出が減速していて、製造業が食らっているという話はしえちますし、先行きに関してもリスクは高まるでしょうということで、「the global recovery faces risks that make it somewhat fragile」とかまで言っているので、リスク認識が低い訳ではないのですが、
『Despite these clear risks, second-quarter U.S. economic growth was above the estimated “potential” rate (that is, an estimate of the economy’s maximum sustainable output over the long term).2 Looking forward, Fed policymakers’ September Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the consensus of private forecasters both anticipate growth around potential.』
『How can the economy continue to expand at potential with the sort of weakening in exports and investment that we are seeing? To date, the answer has been strong consumer spending. The U.S. consumer has been bolstered by plentiful jobs in tight labor markets, strong growth in personal income, and increases in household wealth due to rising prices of assets like stocks and homes. An important question remains whether consumption can continue to offset the negative effects of trade problems and slower foreign growth. 』
『While U.S. consumers have been resilient to date, continued resilience is not guaranteed. So it is important to consider whether the economy can continue on its quite favorable path - with growth around potential, tight labor markets, and inflation near the Fed’s target of 2 percent.』
『The stance of monetary policy is already accommodative, so my view is that policymakers can be patient and continue to evaluate incoming data before taking additional action. My forecast for the economy does not envision additional easing being necessary. However, should risks materialize and economic growth slow materially, to below the potential rate, I would be prepared to support aggressive easing. 』
『Figure 1 provides the median forecast of Fed policymakers for key economic variables from the SEPs from March and September 2019. How different are the forecasts of economic outcomes in September, compared with what we anticipated before the recent increase in tariffs and the cuts in the federal funds rate? What is striking to me is how little the forecasts for 2019 have changed. 』
『Of course, this is due in part to the significant easing actions that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has already put in place, which will continue to stimulate the economy this year and next. More recently, Fed policymakers have added a couple of interest rate cuts to the mix. These actions, to some extent, help to keep the forecast in the healthy zone.』
『Interestingly, the forecast for real GDP growth for 2019 has actually increased over this period, though only by 0.1 percentage point. In March and September, the median forecast for the unemployment rate at the end of this year was 3.7 percent, an unemployment rate that looks too pessimistic now, given the September employment report’s reading of 3.5 percent.』
『While total and core PCE inflation are lower than had been expected, core PCE inflation (which removes the often-volatile food and energy prices) has risen 0.3 percentage points from its lows earlier this year. 』
『Overall, then, the economy has evolved about as expected, despite the unanticipated increase in tariffs and the slower growth of exports and business fixed investment. Moreover, recent monetary policy easing is likely to provide some stimulus over the next several quarters.』
『Not only has the economy evolved about as expected, but it is currently close to where policymakers had hoped it would be at this time.』
マンデートに向かって近いという説明キタコレ。
『Figure 2 shows the recent paths for some alternative measures of inflation.』
図表の方は Figure 2: Measures of Inflation January 2018 - September 2019 ってなっていて、以下の説明にもありますように、コアCPI、ダラス連銀の刈込平均指数、コアPCEと並べて推移を出すことによって、
『The dashed line indicates the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target. Three different measures of inflation are shown on the chart. On a 12-month basis, core CPI is currently at 2.4 percent. Core CPI has risen over the past several months, settling at 2.4 percent for August and September. The Dallas Trimmed Mean, which removes extreme observations, rounds to 2 percent.』
と出してきた挙句に、
『Core PCE is at 1.8 percent, slightly below the Fed’s target - but has also trended up recently.』
とコアPCEはまだ1.8%だけどここの所上昇傾向ですよ、とか言ってる次第で、
『With tight labor markets and an already accommodative stance of policy, it seems likely that inflation will remain close to target as long as the economy does not unexpectedly slow down.』
『Certainly, one reason for concern about the economic outlook is the movement of the 10 year U.S. Treasury yield. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has declined significantly, leading many financial market participants to express concern that this signals a more significant impending slowdown.』
これはブラードが主張する話ですわ。
『An alternative explanation that I have discussed in recent talks is that very low (and in some cases negative) long-term foreign rates are playing a role in pushing down U.S. long rates, as foreign investors move money from low-rate economies into the (relatively) high-rate U.S. markets, pushing down U.S. yields.3』
『Also, it seems like global investors are using U.S. Treasuries to partially hedge against the possibility of an economic downturn in their country or region, since the prices of long-duration U.S. Treasury securities normally rise during economic downturns.』
『Other financial indicators do not portend a significant slowdown.』
その他の金融指標を見ると顕著なスローダウンを予測させるようなもんは特にないんですけど、と宣戦布告。
『Despite high leverage in the corporate sector and more issuance at the bottom end of investment-grade ratings, the spread between yields on corporate bonds and Treasury bonds, shown in Figure 5, remains below the average spread of the past 25 years.』
Figure 5: Moody’s Seasoned BAA Corporate Bond Spread Over Ten-Year U.S. Treasury Yield January 5, 2018 - October 4, 2019
ということで社債のスプレッドを挙げたと思ったら、
『Similarly, the stock market, shown in Figure 6, remains close to all-time highs. 』
株価を持ち出しております。
まあそうは言いましても実体経済の数字に近い方ではリスクに関しても指摘していますが、
『Recent developments in oil markets are more consistent with apparent risks to the global economy.』
おまけに最近の原油市場は世界経済のリスク認識に最も整合的に動いているいうことで、
『As shown in Figure 7, oil prices have fallen - usually a sign that investors see additional weakness developing in the global economy - despite the supply disruption caused by the attack on Saudi oil production.』
Figure 7: Brent Crude Oil Price January 5, 2018 - October 4, 2019
ってことで原油価格がアガランチ会長なのはリスク認識を示していますとか、
『The dollar has continued to appreciate against various currencies, and relative to the pound - as Brexit concerns remain elevated - which is shown in Figure 8.』
Figure 8: Exchange Rate: British Pounds Per U.S. Dollar January 5, 2018 - October 4, 2019
ブリクジットの懸念がありますねとか、
『And Figure 9 shows the continued impact of the trade war with China, as both exports to and imports from China have declined significantly. 』
『Putting together all of these developments, I expect the U.S. economy to grow a touch above 2 percent this year, as continued strength in consumer spending offsets weakness in business outlays and net exports.』
『Growth is clearly slowing: In 2018, economic activity expanded 2-1/2 percent, and the year before it rose 2-3/4 percent. But 2 percent is not far from my staff’s estimate of the economy’s long-run potential growth rate, which is between 1-3/4 and 2 percent. So my outlook has the economy chugging along at or a bit above its long-run trend.』
『Looking beyond this year, I expect growth to continue to run roughly in line with potential. In this environment, I anticipate the unemployment rate to remain close to its current low level for some time-and thus below that long-run benchmark of 4.2 percent.』
経済はトレンドグロース並みの成長を続けるとな。でもって物価。
『What about inflation-the other half of our dual mandate? Well, inflation had been running below our symmetric 2 percent objective throughout most of the recovery. Then, in 2018, inflation rose back to 2 percent. But this improvement proved to be relatively short-lived, as core PCE inflation subsequently slipped to 1-1/2 percent in early 2019, and only recently has recovered to 1.8 percent.6 In another unwelcome development, by some measures inflation expectations-which are a key determinant of actual inflation-have slipped further this year and today are at uncomfortably low levels.』
『However, I now think that achieving these outcomes will require more accommodative monetary policy than I did in the past-indeed, more accommodation than I thought necessary just this last December.』
『This change reflects what I like to refer to as an outcome-based approach to monetary policy. This approach entails adjusting the stance of policy not according to some simple static rule, but in whatever way is necessary to achieve our mandated goals on a timely basis while effectively managing the various risks to the outlook.』
でもってじゃあそのリスクマネジメントアプローチって何ぞやというのが二つ先の小見出し『Risk management in a low-growth environment』になるという作りになっているようですが、それは後にするとして続きを読みます。直後のパラグラフは昨年12月から見方がこう変わって政策がこう変わったという話なので飛ばして次のパラグラフ。
『I think policy probably is in a good place right now. All told, the growth outlook is good, and we have policy accommodation in place to support rising inflation. 』
これがさっきのロイター記事にある「今は良い状態にある」ですね。
『That said, there is some risk that the economy will have more difficulty navigating all the uncertainties out there or that unexpected downside shocks might hit. So there is an argument for more accommodation now to provide some further risk-management buffer against these potential events.』
ではリスクマネジメントとして追加緩和は更に必要なのかというのが論点です、とこれまたキタコレモード。
『I am keeping an open mind to these arguments, which I’m sure we will discuss fully at our meeting later this month. Of course, we obviously would act aggressively if actually faced with an imminent downturn.』
『Turning to the expected policy path further ahead, I’d note that in September the median FOMC participant saw no additional change in the target range for the federal funds rate through the end of 2020 and one 25-basis-point increase in each of 2021 and 2022. My own assessment is pretty much in line with this median outlook.7』
次の小見出しが『Limits to what monetary policy can accomplish』で構造問題の話(主にトレンドグロースをどうやって上げるかという話)になっていまして、そこはそこで大事な論点ではあるものの、目先の金融政策云々ではないので華麗にスルーしましてその次の小見出し『Risk management in a low-growth environment』なのですが、その一発目のパラグラフが立ち合い強く当たって一気に電車道みたいなアレ。
『Earlier, I mentioned risk management as one rationale for rate cuts in the current environment.11 History has many other examples of the FOMC preemptively adjusting rates to mitigate risks.12』
いきなり予防的対応の話キタコレ。
『What does risk management actually mean? It entails thinking about what could go wrong with the forecast and then judging if policy should be adjusted from the baseline one way or the other in light of the alternative scenarios. This evaluation considers whether the costs from missing our dual mandate objectives are balanced across these alternatives. If not, we may want to adjust policy as insurance against bad outcomes.』
『Today, the low r* environment makes risk management a very important consideration in charting the course for monetary policy. The practical limits it imposes on the capacity to cut the federal funds rate means that downside shocks that weaken growth or inflation could be more costly than upside surprises we could more easily react to by raising rates. To avoid becoming stranded at the effective lower bound, risk management calls for proactively cutting rates in response to increased downside risks.』
『The extra accommodation provides a buffer for the economy to absorb the bad shocks should they occur. It also is useful in communicating to the public that we are aware of the risks and are unlikely to be caught off guard should they materialize.』
という話で「The extra accommodation」は良い事ですなあって話なのでこれはハト(積極緩和かというとそこはちょっと違う気もするけど)。
『Beyond the near-term risk factors I discussed earlier, the broader inflation outlook also poses an important risk-management consideration.』
おまけにこのリスクマネジメントに物価の観点も来てまして、
『Think about setting policy to return inflation to our symmetric 2 percent goal on a sustainable basis. The risks here are not symmetric. With today’s low inflation, if we apply too much accommodation, inflation will simply reach our target sooner. But if we fail to act strongly enough, we risk underlying inflation trends and inflation expectations becoming mired at low levels, making it all the more difficult to achieve our goal. This could occur, for example, if the public perceives that our 2 percent inflation goal is a ceiling, rather than the symmetric target that it is.』
『In my view, these differences mean we need to err on the side of providing aggressive enough accommodation to get inflation moving up with some momentum. After all, no one ever made a free throw without enough muscle behind it to first get the ball to the hoop. This kind of force could well result in inflation modestly overrunning 2 percent for some time. But in the current situation, this would not be a policy error. Engineering a modest overshoot of our inflation objective better guarantees that we would actually meet our inflation target in the future.』
緩和しすぎて多少の物価上振れを起こすのも無問題、という話をしているので(以下同文)。
『Any excessive overshooting could be controlled with modest rate hikes. Moreover, tolerating inflation as high as 2-1/2 percent does not entail much of a welfare loss-especially given the lengthy undershoot we’ve permitted. This is because for me, more generally, symmetry means paying attention to both past and prospective misses from our target to ensure that inflation averages 2 percent over the long haul.』
『1.Takeaway: The economy faces elevated risks, including trade disruptions and geopolitical concerns. But overall, the economy is close to where many policymakers expected it would be, with the U.S. at full employment and inflation trending toward the Fed’s target.
Excerpt: “Overall, then, the economy has evolved about as expected, despite the unanticipated increase in tariffs and the slower growth of exports and business fixed investment. Moreover, recent monetary policy easing is likely to provide some stimulus over the next several quarters. … In sum, the U.S. economy is now very close to meeting the Fed’s Congressional mandate of full employment and stable prices (which we define as 2 percent inflation).”』
『2.Takeaway: Strong consumer spending - bolstered by plentiful jobs, growth in personal income, and increases in household wealth - has fueled the U.S. economic expansion. The key question is, will consumption continue to offset other challenges?
Excerpt: “Sustaining growth at potential depends on the U.S. consumer continuing to offset the weakness we are seeing in exports and business fixed investment. … While U.S. consumers have been resilient to date, continued resilience is not guaranteed. So it is important to consider whether the economy can continue on its quite favorable path - with growth around potential, tight labor markets, and inflation near the Fed’s target of 2 percent.”』
『3.Despite risks to growth, policymakers can afford to be patient and evaluate incoming data before further cutting interest rates. Right now, more cuts don’t appear needed, as many forecasters expect growth close to potential - and policy is already accommodative.
Excerpt: “My forecast for the economy does not envision additional easing being necessary. However, should risks materialize and economic growth slow materially, to below the potential rate, I would be prepared to support aggressive easing… To me, it seems appropriate to continue to closely monitor incoming data to determine if the forecast of growth around potential is likely to be achieved, or if the risks I have outlined are indeed materializing.”』
『4.Takeaway: Regarding financial indicators, many see the decline in 10-year Treasury bond yields as a sign of an impending slowdown, but an alternative explanation is that low foreign long-term rates are leading to lower U.S. rates. Other financial indicators run counter to worries about a slowdown, including robust stock prices and the restrained spread between corporate and Treasury bond yields.
Excerpt: “Very low (and in some cases negative) foreign long-term rates are playing a role in pushing down U.S. long rates, as foreign investors move money from low-rate economies into the (relatively) high-rate U.S. markets, pushing down U.S. yields. … Other financial indicators do not portend a significant slowdown.”』
『5.Takeaway: There are risks to “easing too much,” or lowering interest rates too aggressively. One risk involves unintended consequences of chasing higher returns or “reaching-for-yield.”
Excerpt: “While the risks to the global and U.S. economies remain, there are also risks to easing too aggressively, as I’ve highlighted in previous speeches. Ever-lower interest rates could encourage reaching-for-yield behavior at exactly the wrong stage of the economic cycle. This remains an important consideration factoring into my views on the elements policymakers must weigh and balance at this complex time for our economy.”』
[外部リンク] against Downside Risk for the U.S. Economy October 15, 2019
インシャランスキタコレ。
『During a presentation in London, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard noted that the U.S. economy is slowing down relative to 2017 and 2018. The economy faces downside risk that may cause a sharper-than-expected slowdown, which “may make it more difficult for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to achieve its 2% inflation target,” he said.』
『He pointed out that the FOMC has tried to help insure against this downside risk by dramatically altering the path of monetary policy during 2019. “The FOMC may choose to provide additional accommodation going forward, but decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis,” he said.』
[外部リンク] Louis Fed's Bullard Discusses Insurance against Downside Risk for the U.S. Economy 10/15/2019
『LONDON - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard presented “Insurance against Downside Risk for the U.S. Economy” at the 2019 Monetary and Financial Policy Conference on Tuesday.』
なお紙芝居はこちら。 [外部リンク] Slowing U.S. Economy and Downside Risks to Growth』って小見出しから始まりまして、
『Bullard pointed out that the U.S. economy grew at a 2.5% pace during 2018, but growth for 2019 has long been expected to be slower as the economy returns to its potential growth rate. “The key risk is that this slowing may be sharper than anticipated,” he said.』
直近の減速が想定よりも大きいことがキーリスクであるって何だその循環論法とは思うがその次。
『“It is possible that a sharper-than-expected slowdown could materialize in the quarters ahead,” Bullard added. He then discussed the downside risks, which he noted are possibly interrelated. These downside risks include the effects of magnified global trade policy uncertainty; slowing growth in the global economy; contraction in global and U.S. manufacturing; slowing U.S. business investment; and an inverted yield curve, “which seems to suggest U.S. monetary policy may be too restrictive for the current environment,” he said.』
『On the issue of trade policy uncertainty, Bullard said, “U.S. monetary policy cannot reasonably react to the day-to-day give-and-take of trade negotiations.” He added that he thinks of trade policy uncertainty as being high in the current environment and as something that is already factored into his monetary policy calculus. “I do not expect this uncertainty to dissipate in the quarters and years ahead,” he said.』
『“Trade policy uncertainty creates a disincentive for global investment. Accordingly, the global growth environment looks weaker in recent quarters,” he said, adding, “Slower global growth may feed back into slower growth in the U.S.”』
貿易問題の不確実性が企業の投資意欲を下げて影響ですよというのはまあ普通の話。
『Regarding the yield curve, Bullard explained that an inversion of the yield curve has tended to predict the onset of recession in the U.S. during the postwar era. Some portions of the U.S. Treasury yield curve are inverted today, he said, noting that the 10-year yield is below the effective federal funds rate. “However, the 10-year yield is currently above the two-year yield, likely because markets are anticipating future policy moves by the FOMC, and so we are not seeing an intensification of the yield curve inversion so far,” he said.』
『In a discussion of muted inflation pressures, Bullard noted that both inflation and inflation expectations are below the FOMC’s 2% inflation target. “This is occurring despite more than two years of upside surprise on the real growth rate of the U.S. economy,” he said.』
直近2年間の経済の上振れにもかかわらず物価が中々上がらんと。
『“Insurance rate cuts may help re-center inflation and inflation expectations at the 2% target sooner than otherwise,” he added.』
保険的利下げで他の事をするよりもインフレとインフレ期待が2%に向かって進むでしょう、ということだがそのバックグラウンドは何なの?????と思うのだがまるでその説明はないので理由不明でさっくりと『A Turnaround in U.S. Monetary Policy』という小見出しに進む。
『Regarding U.S. monetary policy, Bullard noted that the FOMC has been cognizant of the developing downside risks. During the first half of 2019, he explained, the FOMC began to project fewer increases in the policy rate and also laid out a plan to cease the runoff of the Fed’s balance sheet. He added that, on June 19, the FOMC did not change the policy rate but strongly suggested that a future downward adjustment in the rate could be warranted. The FOMC reduced the policy rate at its July 30-31 meeting and again at its Sept. 17-18 meeting.』
この辺は年初来の金融政策の推移に関しての話。
『Bullard said that the effect of this turnaround in U.S. monetary policy has been much larger than the two latest reductions in the policy rate alone would suggest because the expectation as of late last year was that the FOMC would actually raise rates further in 2019.』
利下げの金利水準云々よりも利上げ路線を転換したというのが大きいとな。
『He pointed out that the two-year Treasury yield declined by 135 basis points from Nov. 8, 2018, to Oct. 11, 2019. “This is a very large change over this time frame,” he said, noting the outlook for shorter-term interest rates dropped because of FOMC actions. “Furthermore, these policy actions fed through to longer-term U.S. yields, which are more important for investment decisions,” Bullard said.』
『“The bottom line is that U.S. monetary policy is considerably more accommodative today than it was as of late last year,” he said.』
昨年よりも「considerably more accommodative」なのは分かったがだったらなんで更に緩和しないといけないのかという事の説明を賜りたい。現状がリストリクティブなのかニュートラルなのかアコモデーティブなのかはどうなっておりますねん(さっきのインバートの話からするとリストリクティブって言いたいんかなあ)。
ということで何か微妙に言ってることが分からんままだが『Conclusion』
『The FOMC continues to face a slowing U.S. economy with some downside risk due to ongoing global trade regime uncertainty, Bullard said. He added that U.S. inflation and inflation expectations continue to fall short of the FOMC’s 2% target.』
『“The FOMC has taken actions that have changed the outlook for shorter-term U.S. interest rates considerably over the last 11 months, ultimately providing more accommodation to the economy,” Bullard said.』
ということで講演はこちら。 [外部リンク] Fairness: The Value of an Inclusive Economy
Los Angeles World Affairs Council & Town Hall Los Angeles, CA By Mary C. Daly, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco For delivery on October 15, 2019 12:30PM PT
『So let’s start with growth today. How’s the economy doing?』
はい。
『Here, the news is largely positive. The economy continues to expand at a solidpace. Job growth is strong, unemployment is low, consumer spending is healthy,and households remain confident. These are all really good signs.』
ロイターさんの記事の後半にある話な。
『On the other hand, we’ve yet to achieve our inflation goal on a sustained basis. And a number of headwinds - such as trade uncertainty and slower global growth - have started to gust. This has caused manufacturing and business investment to soften considerably over the course of the year. 』
『To ensure we sustain the expansion against these headwinds, the Fed has adopted a more accommodative monetary policy position ? cutting the federal funds rate in both July and September. This accommodation should help the economy continue to grow so that we can make further progress on our mandated goals of full employment and price stability. 』
でもって次の小見出し『Drags on future growth』がクッソ長いのですが・・・・・・・・・・・・
『But what is the pace of growth we’re trying to hit? What’s sustainable? 』
はい。
『This number has changed dramatically over time. During the 60 years prior to the Great Recession, GDP growth averaged around 3.5 percent.』
『During the current expansion, growth has averaged only 2.3 percent. And this slower pace, far from being an anomaly, is expected to continue. Most economists and forecasters, including me, predict GDP growth will average a bit under 2 percent for the foreseeable future.1 』
『So what’s going on? Why is America’s economy expanding at a much slower pace than it used to? 』
トレンドグロースが下がった要因としては・・・・・・・
『To explain, we need to look at the fundamental drivers of economic growth:productivity and the labor force.』
『Let’s first consider productivity growth. Although it’s fluctuated over time,it’s generally contributed a little over 1 percentage point to overall GDP growth since the 1970s. It’s forecast to do about the same going forward. So the reason for slower growth likely isn’t productivity.2 』
『Labor force growth tells a different story. In the 1970s, when the U.S.population was increasing rapidly and women were entering the workforce in large numbers, labor force growth alone averaged 2.7 percentannually. That means - even if productivity growth had been zero - the economy would have expanded at 2.7 percent. That’s faster than the pace of our current expansion.』
『Since that peak, the number has come down substantially. The labor force has grown less than 0.5 percentage point annually for the past decade ? and it’sforecast to stay that way for at least another ten years.3 』
『Much of this decline in labor force growth is due to simple demographic changes. Our population is aging. Fewer babies are being born. This dynamic isn’t unique to the United States - countries around the world are experiencing similar trends.』
でもって次の小見出しが『The present doesn’t have to define the future』となっていまして、
『So what can we do? Are we really destined to grow at just 2 percent moving forward? The answer is likely yes… unless we make significant changes that better engage all that talent we’re leaving on the sidelines. This will require a concerted effort from many stakeholders - including the Federal Reserve.』
『At the Fed, our job is to support a healthy economy and achieve the dual mandate goals of full employment and price stability. The logic of our mandateis that a strong economy benefits everyone. And we can see this in the current expansion.』
『But while these gaps are narrowing, they still persist. And monetary policy alone isn’t enough to close them. Reducing the structural barriers that limit workforce participation or keep individuals from reaching their full potential requires taking a hard look at some of our social and workplace policies.』
『The manager pro tem first discussed developments in global financial markets over the intermeeting period. Global financial markets were volatile over the intermeeting period, with market participants reacting to incoming information about U.S.-China trade tensions and the global growth outlook.』
『In the weeks following the July FOMC meeting, U.S. yields declined sharply and risk asset prices fell amid a spate of largely negative news about risks to the global economic outlook.』
『On net, Treasury yields remained substantially lower, while the S&P 500 and corporate credit spreads reversed most or all of their earlier losses to end the period little changed.』
『The manager pro tem turned next to a discussion of money market conditions.』
キタコレ。
『Money markets were stable over most of the period, and the reduction in the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate following the July FOMC meeting fully passed through to money market rates.』
最初は落ち着いていてIOERを30下げたのがそのまま市場金利の低下につながったという認識。
『However, money markets became highly volatile just before the September meeting, apparently spurred partly by large corporate tax payments and Treasury settlements, and remained so through the time of the meeting.』
『In an environment of greater perceived uncertainty about potential outflows related to the corporate tax payment date, typical lenders in money markets were less willing to accommodate increased dealer demand for funding.』
『Moreover, some banks maintained reserve levels significantly above those reported in the Senior Financial Officer Survey about their lowest comfortable level of reserves rather than lend in repo markets.』
『Federal Home Loan Banks reportedly scaled back their lending in the federal funds market in order to maintain some liquidity in anticipation of higher demand for advances from their members and to shift more of their overnight funding into repo.』
『In this environment, the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) rose to the top of the target range on September 16. The following morning, in accordance with the FOMC's directive to the Desk to foster conditions to maintain the EFFR in the target range, the Desk conducted overnight repurchase operations for up to $75 billion.』
ということで16日にシステムレポを実施しました。
『After the operation, rates in secured and unsecured markets declined sharply. Rates in secured markets were trading around 2.5 percent after the operation.』
でもって金利は下がった。
『Market participants reportedly expected that additional temporary open market operations would be necessary both over subsequent days and around the end of the quarter. Many also reportedly expected another 5 basis point technical adjustment of the IOER rate.』
『By unanimous vote, the Committee ratified the Desk's domestic transactions over the intermeeting period. There were no intervention operations in foreign currencies for the System's account during the intermeeting period.』
一応事後承認というプロセスがございますな。
〇というのに関連してリザーブ維持のために短国買入を実施と
アナウンスされたのは11日ですが、確かその前にやりまっせ的な話が出ていたような気がする。
[外部リンク] 11, 2019 Statement Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation For release at 11:00 a.m. EDT
ということで・・・・・・・・・・・・
『Consistent with its January 2019 Statement Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation and Balance Sheet Normalization, the Committee reaffirms its intention to implement monetary policy in a regime in which an ample supply of reserves ensures that control over the level of the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates is exercised primarily through the setting of the Federal Reserve's administered rates, and in which active management of the supply of reserves is not required. To ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample, the Committee approved by notation vote completed on October 11, 2019 the following steps:』
『・In light of recent and expected increases in the Federal Reserve's non-reserve liabilities, the Federal Reserve will purchase Treasury bills at least into the second quarter of next year in order to maintain over time ample reserve balances at or above the level that prevailed in early September 2019.
・In addition, the Federal Reserve will conduct term and overnight repurchase agreement operations at least through January of next year to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample even during periods of sharp increases in non-reserve liabilities, and to mitigate the risk of money market pressures that could adversely affect policy implementation.』
『These actions are purely technical measures to support the effective implementation of the FOMC's monetary policy, and do not represent a change in the stance of monetary policy. The Committee will continue to monitor money market developments as it assesses the level of reserves most consistent with efficient and effective policy implementation. The Committee stands ready to adjust the details of these plans as necessary to foster efficient and effective implementation of monetary policy.』
『In connection with these plans, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:』
『"Effective October 15, 2019, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 1-3/4 to 2 percent. In light of recent and expected increases in the Federal Reserve's non-reserve liabilities, the Committee directs the Desk to purchase Treasury bills at least into the second quarter of next year to maintain over time ample reserve balances at or above the level that prevailed in early September 2019. The Committee also directs the Desk to conduct term and overnight repurchase agreement operations at least through January of next year to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample even during periods of sharp increases in non-reserve liabilities, and to mitigate the risk of money market pressures that could adversely affect policy implementation. In addition, the Committee directs the Desk to conduct overnight reverse repurchase operations (and reverse repurchase operations with maturities of more than one day when necessary to accommodate weekend, holiday, or similar trading conventions) at an offering rate of 1.70 percent, in amounts limited only by the value of Treasury securities held outright in the System Open Market Account that are available for such operations and by a per-counterparty limit of $30 billion per day.』
『The Committee directs the Desk to continue rolling over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities and to continue reinvesting all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities received during each calendar month. Principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities up to $20 billion per month will continue to be reinvested in Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding; principal payments in excess of $20 billion per month will continue to be reinvested in agency mortgage-backed securities. Small deviations from these amounts for operational reasons are acceptable.』
『The Committee also directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency mortgage-backed securities transactions."』
『Several participants suggested that the Committee's postmeeting statement should provide more clarity about when the recalibration of the level of the policy rate in response to trade uncertainty would likely come to an end.』
『A few participants judged that the expectations regarding the path of the federal funds rate implied by prices in financial markets were currently suggesting greater provision of accommodation at coming meetings than they saw as appropriate and that it might become necessary for the Committee to seek a better alignment of market expectations regarding the policy rate path with policymakers' own expectations for that path.』
ではまあ本日は楽しそうな最初の小見出し2つのうち『Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices』を拝読。
『Committee participants continued their discussions related to the ongoing review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices.』
ということではじまりはじまり。
『Staff briefings provided an assessment of the risk that the federal funds rate could, in some future downturn, be constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) and discussed options for mitigating the costs associated with this constraint.』
『The staff's analysis suggested that the ELB would likely bind in most future recessions, which could make it more difficult for the FOMC to achieve its longer-run objectives of maximum employment and symmetric 2 percent inflation.』
今後のリセッションでは毎度のように名目ゼロ金利制約に引っ掛かる見込みだそうな、ナムナム。
『The staff discussed several options for mitigating ELB risks, including using forward guidance and balance sheet policies earlier and more aggressively than in the past.』
『The staff also illustrated the properties of "makeup" strategies using model simulations.』
出たなメイクアップストラテジー。
『Under such strategies, policymakers would promise to make up for past inflation shortfalls with a sustained accommodative stance of policy that is intended to generate higher future inflation. These strategies are designed to provide accommodation at the ELB by keeping the policy rate low for an extended period in order to support an economic recovery.』
この辺はストラテジーの内容説明。
『Because of their properties both at and away from the ELB, makeup strategies may also more firmly anchor inflation expectations at 2 percent than a policy strategy that does not compensate for past inflation misses. The staff analysis emphasized, however, that the benefits of makeup strategies depend importantly on the private sector's understanding of these strategies and their confidence that future policymakers would follow through on promises to keep policy accommodative.』
『Participants generally agreed with the staff's analysis that the risk of future ELB episodes had likely increased over time, and that future ELB episodes and the reduced effect of resource utilization on inflation could inhibit the Committee's ability to achieve its employment and inflation objectives.』
『The increased ELB risk was attributed in part to structural changes in the U.S. economy that had lowered the longer-run real short-term interest rate and thus the neutral level of the policy rate.』
『In this context, a couple of participants noted that uncertainty about the neutral rate made it especially challenging to determine any appropriate changes to the current framework.』
『In light of a low neutral rate and shortfalls of inflation below the 2 percent objective for several years, some participants raised the concern that the policy space to reduce the federal funds rate in response to future recessions could be compressed further if inflation shortfalls continued and led to a decline in inflation expectations, a risk that was also discussed in the staff analysis. These participants pointed to long, ongoing ELB spells in other major foreign economies and suggested that, to avoid similar circumstances in the United States, it was important to be aggressive when confronted with forces holding inflation below objective.』
『A couple of participants judged that the lack of monetary policy space abroad and the possibility that fiscal space in the United States might be limited reinforced the case for strengthening the FOMC's monetary policy framework as a matter of prudent planning.』
『With regard to the current monetary policy framework, participants agreed that this framework served the Committee well in the aftermath of the financial crisis.』
そらそう言う罠という奴ですが金融危機後の政策対応についての評価な。
『A number of participants noted that the Committee's experience with forward guidance and balance sheet policies would likely allow the Committee to deploy these tools earlier and more aggressively in the event that they were needed.』
と来まして、
『A few indicated that the uncertainty about the effectiveness of these policies was smaller than the uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of a makeup strategy.』
『Participants generally agreed that the current framework also served the Committee well by providing a strong commitment to achieving the Committee's maximum-employment and symmetric inflation objectives.』
はあそうですか。
『Such a commitment was seen as flexible enough to allow the Committee to choose policy actions that best support its objectives in a wide array of economic circumstances.』
『Because of the downside risk to inflation and employment associated with the ELB, most participants were open to the possibility that the dual-mandate objectives of maximum employment and stable prices could be best served by strategies that deliver inflation rates that over time are, on average, equal to the Committee's longer-run objective of 2 percent.』
『Promoting such outcomes may require aiming for inflation somewhat above 2 percent when the policy rate was away from the ELB, recognizing that inflation would tend to be lower than 2 percent when the policy rate was constrained by the ELB.』
『Participants suggested several alternatives for doing so, including strategies that make up for past inflation shortfalls and those that respond more aggressively to below-target inflation than to above-target inflation. In this context, several participants suggested that the adoption of a target range for inflation could be helpful in achieving the Committee's objective of 2 percent inflation, on average, as it could help communicate to the public that periods in which the Committee judged inflation to be moderately away from its 2 percent objective were appropriate.』
『A couple of participants suggested analyzing policies in which there was a target range for inflation whose midpoint was modestly higher than 2 percent or in which 2 percent was an inflation floor; these policies might enhance policymakers' scope to provide accommodation as appropriate when the neutral real interest rate was low.』
『Although ensuring inflation outcomes averaging 2 percent over time was seen as important, many participants noted that the illustrated makeup strategies delivered only modest benefits in the staff's model simulations.』
『These modest benefits in part reflected that the responsiveness of inflation to resource slack had diminished, making it more difficult to provide sufficient accommodation to push inflation back to the Committee's objective in a timely manner.』
『Some participants suggested that the modest effects were particularly pronounced using the FRB/US model and indicated the need for more robustness analysis of simulation results along several dimensions and for further comparison to other alternative strategies. In addition, several participants noted that the implementation of the makeup strategies in the form of either average inflation targeting or price-level targeting in the simulations was tied too rigidly to the details of particular rules.』
何かシミュレーションをもっと検討しましょうとか微妙な怪しさが漂う参加者からの見解。
『An advantage of the current framework over such alternative approaches is that it has provided the Committee with the flexibility to assess a broad range of factors and information in choosing its policy actions, and these actions can vary depending on economic circumstances in order to best achieve the Committee's dual mandate. Similarly, makeup strategies could be implemented more flexibly in order to deliver more accommodation during a future downturn and through the subsequent recovery than what could be achieved with a mechanical makeup rule.』
『Participants also discussed a number of challenges associated with makeup strategies.』
まだメイクアップストラテジーの話が続く。
『Many participants expressed reservations with the makeup strategies analyzed by the staff. Some participants raised the concern that the effective use of the makeup strategies in the form of the average inflation targeting and price-level targeting rules that the staff presented depended on future policymakers following through on commitments to keep policy accommodative for a long time. Such commitments might be difficult for future policymakers to follow through on, especially in situations in which the labor market was strong and inflation was above target.』
『A few participants acknowledged that credibly committing to makeup strategies posed challenges. However, they pointed to the commitments that central banks around the world made to inflation targeting as examples in which similar challenges had been overcome.』
『A couple of participants raised the concern that keeping policy rates low for a long time could lead to excessive risk-taking in financial markets and threaten financial stability.』
『However, a couple of other participants judged that macroprudential tools could be used to help ensure that any overleveraging of households and firms did not threaten the financial system, while monetary policy needed to be focused on achieving maximum employment and symmetric 2 percent inflation.』
『A few participants viewed the communication challenges associated with average-inflation targeting strategies, including the difficulty of conveying the dangers of low inflation to the public, as greater than for some other strategies that use threshold-based forward guidance. Several participants noted that makeup strategies could unduly limit the policy response in situations in which inflation had been running above 2 percent amid signs of an impending economic downturn. Accordingly, these participants favored makeup strategies that only reversed past inflation shortfalls relative to makeup strategies that reversed both past inflation shortfalls and past overruns.』
『Participants continued to discuss the benefits of the Committee's review of the monetary policy framework as well as the Committee's Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which articulates the Committee's approach to monetary policy. As they did at their meeting in July, participants mentioned several issues that this statement might possibly address. These issues included the conduct of monetary policy in the presence of the ELB constraint, the role of inflation expectations in the Committee's pursuit of its inflation goal, the best means of conveying the Committee's balanced approach to monetary policy, the symmetry of its inflation goal, and the time frame over which the Committee aimed to achieve it.』
『Participants expected that they would continue their deliberations on these and other topics pertinent to the review at upcoming meetings. They also generally agreed that the Committee's consideration of possible modifications to its policy strategy, tools, and communication practices would take some time, and that the process would be careful, deliberate, and patient.』
[外部リンク] of the Federal Open Market Committee September 17-18, 2019
今回の議事要旨、一発目に『Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices』という楽しそうな小見出しがありますし、『Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations 』の部分についても今回ばっかりは面白そうなのですが、そんなの読んでると全然オワランチ会長になってしまいますので、例によって例のごとく『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook 』のケツから逆順で読むのでした。
なお、パラグラフ単位で逆順で引用するので文章のつながりが微妙になるかも知れませんので一つよろしく。
・短期金融市場に関する議論もあるでよ
てな訳でよーしパパ逆順インスタント読みするぞー、と思って意気揚々と(嘘)文書に当たりに行きますと、いつもは存在しない小見出し『Participants' Discussion of Recent Money Market Developments 』を発見したのでこれはさすがに読んで進ぜよう(ここは逆順じゃ無くて順番に読みます)。
『The manager pro tem provided a summary of the most recent developments in money markets.』
うむ。
『Open market operations conducted on the previous day had helped to ease strains in money markets, but the EFFR had nonetheless printed 5 basis points above the top of the target range.』
思いっきりど直近の話(当時の)をしております。
『With significant pressures still evident in repo markets and the federal funds market, and in accordance with the FOMC's directive to maintain the federal funds rate within the target range, the Desk conducted another repo operation on the morning of the second day of the meeting.』
はい。
『The staff presented a proposal to lower the IOER rate and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement rate by 5 basis points, relative to the target range for the federal funds rate, in order to foster trading of federal funds within the target range.』
『Participants agreed that developments in money markets over recent days implied that the Committee should soon discuss the appropriate level of reserve balances sufficient to support efficient and effective implementation of monetary policy in the context of the ample-reserves regime that the Committee had chosen.』
『A few participants noted the possibility of resuming trend growth of the balance sheet to help stabilize the level of reserves in the banking system.』
『Participants agreed that any Committee decision regarding the trend pace of balance sheet expansion necessary to maintain a level of reserve balances appropriate to facilitate policy implementation should be clearly distinguished from past large-scale asset purchase programs that were aimed at altering the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's asset holdings in order to provide monetary policy accommodation and ease overall financial conditions.』
『Several participants suggested that such a discussion could benefit from also considering the merits of introducing a standing repurchase agreement facility as part of the framework for implementing monetary policy.』
『With regard to monetary policy beyond this meeting, participants agreed that policy was not on a preset course and would depend on the implications of incoming information for the evolution of the economic outlook.』
『A few participants judged that the expectations regarding the path of the federal funds rate implied by prices in financial markets were currently suggesting greater provision of accommodation at coming meetings than they saw as appropriate and that it might become necessary for the Committee to seek a better alignment of market expectations regarding the policy rate path with policymakers' own expectations for that path.』
『Several participants suggested that the Committee's postmeeting statement should provide more clarity about when the recalibration of the level of the policy rate in response to trade uncertainty would likely come to an end.』
数名(Several)貿易戦争に起因する不確実性に対応した政策金利の変更というのがいつになったら終わるのかという事について、よりクリアに声明文で示すべきとかいう意見もありまして、『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』の最終パラは物凄い勢いでタカになっています。まあアタクシは変人なので逆から読みますが、これ普通に前から読んでいくと印象はまた変わるとは思うのですが、締めの所がこのタカっぷりというのも何ともかんとも。
・50bp下げて更にフォワードガイダンスも入れる方向でというのが2名
でもって一つ前を見ると、
『A couple of participants indicated their preference for a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate at this meeting.』
『These participants suggested that a larger policy move would help reduce the risk of an economic downturn and would more appropriately recognize important recent developments, such as slowing job gains, weakening investment, and continued low values of market-based measures of inflation compensation.』
『In addition, these participants stressed the need for a policy stance-possibly one using enhanced forward guidance-that was sufficiently accommodative to make it unlikely that the United States would experience a protracted period of the kind seen abroad in which the economy became mired in a combination of undesirably low inflation, weak economic activity, and near-zero policy rates. They also argued that it was desirable for the Committee to seek and maintain a level of accommodation sufficient to deliver inflation at 2 percent on a sustained basis and that such a policy would be consistent with inflation exceeding 2 percent for a time.』
『Several participants favored maintaining the existing target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting.』
数名(Several)の参加者は金利の現状維持を主張とな。
『These participants suggested that the baseline projection for the economy had changed very little since the Committee's previous meeting and that the state of the economy and the economic outlook did not justify a shift away from the current policy stance, which they felt was already adequately accommodative.』
『They acknowledged the uncertainties that currently figured importantly in evaluations of the economic outlook, but they contended that the key uncertainties were unlikely to be resolved soon. Furthermore, as they did not believe that these uncertainties would derail the expansion, they did not see further policy accommodation as needed at this time.』
『In this connection, a couple of participants suggested that, if it decided to provide more policy accommodation at the present juncture, the Committee might be taking out too much insurance against possible future shocks, leaving monetary policy with less scope to boost aggregate demand in the event that such shocks materialized.』
『A few of the participants favoring an unchanged target range for the federal funds rate also expressed concern that an easing of monetary policy at this meeting could exacerbate financial imbalances.』
『Many participants also cited the level of inflation or inflation expectations as justifying a reduction of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate at this meeting.』
『Inflation had generally fallen short of the Committee's objective for several years and, notwithstanding some stronger recent monthly readings on inflation, the 12-month rate was still below 2 percent. Some estimates of trend inflation were also below 2 percent. Several participants additionally stressed that survey measures of longer-term inflation expectations and market-based measures of inflation compensation were near historical lows and that these values pointed to the possibility that inflation expectations were below levels consistent with the 2 percent objective or could soon fall below such levels.』
インフレ期待がアガランチ会長でアカンがな(なので利下げじゃ利下げじゃ)という指摘ですな。
『Against this backdrop, participants suggested that a policy easing would help underline policymakers' commitment to the symmetric 2 percent longer-run objective.』
『With inflation pressures muted and U.S. inflation likely being weighed down by global disinflationary forces, policymakers saw little chance of an outsized increase in inflation in response to additional policy accommodation and argued that such an increase, should it occur, could be addressed in a straightforward manner using conventional monetary policy tools.』
『Participants favoring a modest adjustment to the stance of monetary policy at this juncture cited other risks to the economic outlook that further underscored the case for such a move.』
「a modest adjustment to the stance of monetary policy」だそうで。
『As their discussion of risks had highlighted, downside risks had become more pronounced since July: Trade uncertainty had increased, prospects for global growth had become more fragile, and various intermeeting developments had intensified geopolitical risks.』
これは会見でも説明あったリスクについてその要因。
『Against this background, risk-management considerations implied that it would be prudent for the Committee to adopt a somewhat more accommodative stance of policy.』
てな訳で先般の利下げは「a somewhat more accommodative stance of policy」という位置づけですな。
『In addition, a number of participants suggested that a reduction at this meeting in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely better align the target range with a variety of indicators of the appropriate policy stance, including those based on estimates of the neutral interest rate. A few participants observed that the considerations favoring easing were reinforced by the proximity of the federal funds rate to the ELB. If policymakers provided adequate accommodation while still away from the ELB, this course of action would help forestall the possibility of a prolonged ELB episode.』
『Participants noted that there had been little change in their economic outlook since the July meeting and that incoming data had continued to suggest that the pace of economic expansion was consistent with the maintenance of strong labor market conditions.』
『However, a couple of participants pointed out that data revisions announced in recent months implied that the economy had likely entered the year with somewhat less momentum than previously thought. In addition, data received since July had confirmed the weakening in business fixed investment and exports. One risk that the economy faced was that the softness recorded of late in firms' capital formation, manufacturing, and exporting activities might spread to their hiring decisions, with adverse implications for household income and spending.』
2名はもう少し厳しい見方をしております。
『Participants observed that such an eventuality was not embedded in their baseline outlook; however, a couple of them indicated that this was partly because they assumed that an appropriate adjustment to the policy rate path would help forestall that eventuality. Several also noted that, because monetary policy actions affected economic activity with a lag, it was appropriate to provide the requisite policy accommodation now to support economic activity over coming quarters.』
『In their consideration of the monetary policy options at this meeting, most participants believed that a reduction of 25 basis points in the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate. In discussing the reasons for such a decision, these participants pointed to considerations related to the economic outlook, risk management, and the need to center inflation and inflation expectations on the Committee's longer-run objective of 2 percent.』
