ということなのですが、これもまた難しくて、しばらく前(と思って確認したら2011年の5月だからだいぶ前)に芸人として名高いセントルイス連銀のブラード総裁は「Measuring Inflation: The Core Is Rotten.」とか言って「コアインフレ率は国民厚生の実体を表しておらず、ヘッドライン(総合)のインフレーションターゲットをFRBは導入すべき」とか堂々と言っていた時期があったりしますように、そもそも物価指標と言っても単一の計測方法の数値を絶対化して良いのかという話がある訳ですし(まあそれを言い出したらマクプル的に見て資産価格も考えた方が良いのでは的な話にも発展しますが)、まだこちらの方のモノホン講演テキストに当たれていないので何なのですが(当たってみて面白かったらネタにします)、物価目標に関しては「分かりやすいけれどもフワッとしたもの」にするのが良いのではないかと思うのです(個人の感想です)。
『The ECB launched a strategy review in January 2020. The aim is to make sure our monetary policy strategy is fit for purpose, both today and in the future.』
ほう。
『The strategy review covers all aspects of our monetary policy, within the framework of our mandate which is to maintain price stability. The review will be based on thorough analysis and take an open-minded approach.』
ほうほう。
『As part of the strategy review, we want to hear opinions from across Europe, including those from citizens, academics, Members of the European Parliament and civil society organisations.』
『Let us know what you think we should take into consideration as we review our monetary policy strategy. Please share your views by 24 April 2020. The form is available in euro area languages.』
とか言って入力フォームがあるっぽい(ECB LISTENSとかいう画像のところにHave a say in the ECB’s strategy reviewってあってGoというのを物は試しにクリックしたらまずはお名前などの登録から始まるようで(その後は行ってない)すな。
『President Christine Lagarde and Chief Economist Philip R. Lane will host a listening event with civil society organisations in Brussels. We will publish summaries of the contributions we receive. The event will be webcast live.』
そらそうよ、ということで講演がこちらに。 [外部リンク] 25, 2020 U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the 36th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C.
『Thank you for the opportunity to participate again this year in the Annual Economic Policy Conference of the National Association for Business Economics. I am really looking forward to this conversation. But first, I would like to share with you some thoughts about the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy.1』
『1. These remarks represent my own views, which do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee. I am grateful to Brian Doyle of the Federal Reserve Board staff for his assistance in preparing this text. Return to text』
『In its 11th year of a record expansion, the U.S. economy is in a good place. The labor market remains strong, economic activity is increasing at a moderate pace, and the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) baseline outlook is for a continuation of this performance in 2020.2』
この2ってのも脚注で直近のSEPの事に言及しています。ふむふむ米国経済は「in a good place」とな。
『At present, personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price inflation is running somewhat below the Committee's 2 percent objective, but we project that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation will rise gradually to our symmetric 2 percent objective.』
『Although the unemployment rate is around a 50-year low, wages are rising broadly in line with productivity growth and underlying inflation. We are not seeing any evidence to date that a strong labor market is putting excessive cost-push pressure on price inflation.』
『Although the fundamentals supporting household consumption remain solid, over 2019, sluggish growth abroad and global developments weighed on investment, exports, and manufacturing in the United States.』
はいはい海外が問題海外が問題。
『Coming into this year, indications suggested that headwinds to global growth had begun to abate, and uncertainties around trade policy had diminished.』
海外経済の成長力とかトレードテンションとかが改善しているものの・・・・・・・・・・
『However, risks to the outlook remain. In particular, we are closely monitoring the emergence of the coronavirus, which is likely to have a noticeable impact on Chinese growth, at least in the first quarter of this year.』
『The disruption there could spill over to the rest of the global economy. But it is still too soon to even speculate about either the size or the persistence of these effects, or whether they will lead to a material change in the outlook.』
『In addition, U.S. inflation remains muted. And inflation expectations-those measured by surveys, market prices, and econometric models-reside at the low end of a range I consider consistent with our price-stability mandate.』
『Over the course of 2019, the FOMC undertook a shift in the stance of monetary policy to offset some significant global growth headwinds and global disinflationary pressures. I believe this shift was well timed and has been providing support to the economy and helping to keep the U.S. outlook on track. Monetary policy is in a good place and should continue to support sustained growth, a strong labor market, and inflation returning to our symmetric 2 percent objective.』
『As long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with this outlook, the current stance of monetary policy likely will remain appropriate.』
いやこの状況で「the economy remains broadly consistent with this outlook」ってナンヤソラとか思うのはミーが日本にいるからなんでしょうが、今の所まだ慌てるような状況ではない、と言っていますがこれが(キリッ)なのか(震え声)なのかはよくワカランチ会長ですな。次のパラグラフに参ります。
『That said, monetary policy is not on a preset course. The Committee will proceed on a meeting-by-meeting basis and will be monitoring the effects of our recent policy actions along with other information bearing on the outlook as we assess the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate. Of course, if developments emerge that, in the future, trigger a material reassessment of our outlook, we will respond accordingly.』
『In January 2019, my FOMC colleagues and I affirmed that we aim to operate with an ample level of bank reserves in the U.S. financial system.3 And in October, we announced and began to implement a program to address pressures in repurchase agreement (repo) markets that became evident in September.4』
『To that end, we have been purchasing Treasury bills and conducting both overnight and term repurchase operations. These efforts have been successful in achieving stable money market conditions, including over the year-end. As our bill purchases continue to build reserves toward levels that we associate with ample conditions, we intend to gradually transition away from the active use of repo operations. And as reserves reach durably ample levels, we intend to slow the pace of purchases such that our balance sheet grows in line with trend demand for our liabilities.』
調整をこのように行っていますと言うテクニカルな説明を行いまして・・・・・・・
『Let me emphasize that we stand ready to adjust the details of this program as appropriate and in line with our goal, which is to keep the federal funds rate in the target range desired by the FOMC, and that these operations are technical measures not intended to change the stance of monetary policy.』
『Finally, allow me to offer a few words about the FOMC's review of the monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices that we commenced in 2019.』
お、おぅ。
『This review-with public engagement unprecedented in scope for us-is the first of its kind for the Federal Reserve. Through 14 Fed Listens events, including a research conference in Chicago, we have been hearing a range of perspectives not only from academic experts, but also from representatives of consumer, labor, community, business, and other groups.』
『We are drawing on these insights as we assess how best to achieve and maintain maximum employment and price stability. In July, we began discussing topics associated with the review at regularly scheduled FOMC meetings. We will continue reporting on our discussions in the minutes of FOMC meetings and will share our conclusions with the public when we complete the review later this year.5』
ちなみに脚注5というのが、
『5. Information about the review and the events associated with it is available on the Board's website at [外部リンク] Return to text』
・・・・・・ところで、このクラリダさんの最後の所、『will share our conclusions with the public when we complete the review later this year.』って締まっていまして、昨日ネタにした1月FOMC議事要旨では「Participants continued to anticipate that the review will likely be completed around the middle of this year.」(1月FOMC議事要旨より)ってなっていますし、上記の「Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communications」でも「Policymakers plan to report their findings to the public during the first half of 2020.」(直上URL先「Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communications」より)ってなっておりまして、今回は「will share our conclusions with the public when we complete the review later this year」ってなっているので、少し後ずれするのかね(7月FOMCは間に合わなくて9月のFOMCかそれ以降)などと思ってしまいました。まあ現世利益的にはどっちでも大差ないのですがあくまでも興味本位の話。
でもって最後が、
『Thank you very much for your time and attention. I look forward to the conversation and the question-and-answer session to follow.』
『The staff's briefing on considerations regarding the use of an inflation range focused on three different concepts of an inflation range.』
3つの異なったコンセプトについてのブリーフィングをしたそうな。
『First, an uncertainty range could communicate the magnitude of the inherent variability of inflation that would still be consistent with achieving the Committee's symmetric inflation objective.』
『Second, an operational range could signal that, under some conditions, the Committee would prefer inflation to be away from its longer-run objective for a time; such a range could potentially be used as part of a makeup policy strategy, including one based on average inflation targeting, or in other strategies aimed at offsetting the adverse effects of a binding effective lower bound on policy rates.』
ある条件の元でのオペレーショナルなレンジ、と言っても何のこっちゃという感じですが、その後の「such a range could potentially be used」を見ますと、メイクアップストラテジーやらアベレージインフレーションターゲットのように、単年ではなくある程度複数年度における平均インフレ率が2%になるように運営するって話で、話としては金融政策がゼロ金利制約に引っ掛かった時にこの政策をとっているのだから、ということでインフレ期待の低下を抑えたりする、というコンセプトを考えているようですな。
『Third, an indifference range could communicate that monetary policy would not respond to deviations of inflation within that range.』
『The briefing also summarized the experiences of foreign central banks that use inflation ranges; these ranges were typically put in place many years ago, often in conjunction with adopting an inflation target.』
他国での例をご紹介。レンジを示すときってのは概ねインフレ目標の導入と同時に行われたことが多いとな。
『The staff highlighted the communications challenges that could arise if an inflation range were introduced at a time when inflation had been running below the central bank's objective for a number of years. In this environment, the introduction of a symmetric range around the point objective could be misinterpreted as a sign that the central bank was not concerned about inflation remaining below its stated goal, a situation that could lead to inflation expectations drifting down to the lower end of the range.』
『Participants expressed a range of views on the potential benefits and costs of different types of inflation ranges.』
という訳で議論、というかブレーンストーミングですな。
『Most participants expressed concern that introducing a symmetric inflation range around the 2 percent objective following an extended period of inflation mostly running somewhat below 2 percent could be misperceived as a signal that the Committee was comfortable with continued misses below its symmetric inflation objective.』
『Many participants agreed that an uncertainty range could be misinterpreted as an indifference range and hence as a lack of commitment by the Committee to its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective.』
『Some participants suggested that it was not clear that introducing a range would help much in achieving the Committee's inflation objective; they noted that introducing a range could make that objective less clear to the public. Instead of establishing a range, the Committee could continue to communicate that its inflation objective was symmetric around 2 percent. While inflation is inherently variable, the Committee then could emphasize its intention for inflation to be centered on the 2 percent objective.』
『Nevertheless, in view of the inherent variability of inflation, several participants judged that there could be some benefit in communicating the inflation objective with a symmetric range around the point target.』
『In addition, a few participants suggested that an inflation range could convey the uncertainty associated with the available array of inflation measures or that the Committee's communications could more explicitly reference other measures of inflation.』
『Several participants also stated that employing an asymmetric operational range for a time-with 2 percent being at or near the lower end of that range-while still maintaining the longer-run target of 2 percent could help communicate that the Committee intended inflation to average 2 percent over time, which in turn could help keep longer-run inflation expectations at levels consistent with its objective.』
『Participants expected that, at upcoming meetings, they would continue their deliberations on the Committee's review of monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. Participants continued to anticipate that the review will likely be completed around the middle of this year.』
[外部リンク] of the Federal Open Market Committee January 28-29, 2020
年次の話の直後にあったのは(昨日別の小見出しを引用してしまいましたすいませんすいません)『Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices』というところでして、今回はもまたこっちの方がクソ長いのですが(さっきの知るぽるとネタでうっかりハッスルしたので時間ががががが)たぶんネタのうち片方までという感じです。
『Participants continued their discussion related to the ongoing review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. At this meeting, the discussion focused on two topics: the potential interactions between monetary policy and financial stability and the potential use of inflation ranges around the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.』
『The staff briefing on the first topic noted that in the current environment of low neutral rates, achieving the Committee's dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability would require low policy rates frequently, regardless of the monetary policy strategy and tools chosen. Consequently, policy strategies and tools that help support a stronger economy and anchor inflation expectations at a level consistent with the Committee's objective in a low-neutral-rate environment can help promote financial stability.』
『In addition, the staff reported that the available empirical evidence suggests that the effects of changes in policy rates on asset prices and risk premiums tend to be modest relative to the historical fluctuations in those measures.』
『However, there may be circumstances in which a persistently accommodative policy stance that is otherwise consistent with the dual-mandate goals may contribute to an increase in financial system vulnerabilities, including through increased borrowing, financial leverage, and valuation pressures.』
持続的な金融緩和環境が金融安定化を損なうような過剰借入、金融レバレッジの拡大、資産価格の上昇圧力をもたらす件についても指摘はしているのですが、「there may be circumstances」ってなんかこう今の緩和的な政策の継続を正当化しようとして大本営発表になっていませんかという気がだいぶするのですが。
『The staff noted that clear communications of the Committee's ongoing assessments of the interactions between monetary policy and financial stability could help avoid large interest rate surprises that could otherwise contribute to financial vulnerabilities.』
『The briefing concluded with a short review of how other central banks have approached this issue, including the use of financial instability escape clauses to provide leeway for the central bank to deviate from its usual monetary policy strategy if financial vulnerabilities become significant.』
他国の例もご紹介してスタッフのブリーフィングはおしまい。以下FOMC参加者の議論。
『In their discussion of the effects that alternative monetary policy strategies and tools might have on financial stability, participants noted that macroeconomic stability and the achievement of the Committee's dual mandate depended on a stable financial system. An unstable financial system may amplify shocks to the economy and exacerbate increases in unemployment or drive inflation further away from the Committee's goal.』
金融システムが不安定だと経済に悪影響だしデュアルマンデートも達成が難しくなる、という話はまあ普通。
『With respect to the relationship between monetary policy and financial stability, some participants noted that evidence regarding the link between the policy stance and elevated financial vulnerabilities was limited, with a couple of participants further observing that there were not many episodes of persistently low interest rates.』
『In addition, some past episodes of heightened financial vulnerabilities were associated with excessive risk-taking behavior that did not seem to be very responsive to typical changes in interest rates.』
『A number of participants judged that, under some circumstances, low policy rates might help foster financial stability provided they are needed to support strong economic conditions and price stability.』
『Some participants remarked, however, that keeping policy rates low to achieve both of the Committee's dual-mandate objectives may contribute to a buildup of financial vulnerabilities, especially at times when the economy is at or above full employment, a development that could pose future risks to the economy and to the ability of the Committee to achieve its dual mandate.』
『Participants discussed how financial stability considerations should be incorporated in the conduct of monetary policy. They generally agreed that supervisory, regulatory, and macroprudential tools should be the primary means to address financial stability risks.』
『A few participants commented that this is especially the case when addressing risks associated with structural features such as the current low level of neutral interest rates.』
『A number of participants noted that countercyclical macroprudential tools, such as the countercyclical capital buffer, could be used to address cyclical financial stability risks.』
『However, various participants noted that while these tools could be deployed proactively to lean against the buildup of financial vulnerabilities, they have some limitations in the context of the U.S. financial system, where the few available tools are, for the most part, not designed to address vulnerabilities outside the banking sector. In addition, these tools are not within the authority of the Committee, and their use requires coordination with other prudential regulators.』
『Recognizing these limitations, many participants remarked that the Committee should not rule out the possibility of adjusting the stance of monetary policy to mitigate financial stability risks, particularly when those risks have important implications for the economic outlook and when macroprudential tools had been or were likely to be ineffective at mitigating those risks.』
『Nevertheless, many participants noted that the current knowledge of the interactions between the stance of monetary policy and financial vulnerabilities is too imprecise to warrant systematically adjusting monetary policy in response to the evolution of financial stability risks.』
『As a result, monetary policy should be guided primarily by the outlook for employment and inflation, and it should respond to financial stability risks only insofar as such risks significantly threaten the achievement of the Committee's mandate.』
『Several participants observed that the monetary policy measures needed to curb financial stability risks could be quite large, and the resulting effects on employment and inflation could place a high hurdle for such measures.』
『Some participants remarked that, because financial stability risks are a consideration for achieving the Committee's dual mandate, a clear communications strategy would be needed to convey the Committee's assessments of financial vulnerabilities and their potential implications for the monetary policy outlook.』
『Several participants noted that a communications strategy could include the possible use of financial instability escape clauses to help explain the rationale for policy actions when a buildup of financial vulnerabilities poses risks to the achievement of the Committee's goals.』
[外部リンク] of the Federal Open Market Committee January 28-29, 2020
1月の議事要旨って年次で改定(というか継続)するもの(海外中銀とのスワップ協定とか)の承認だか確認が色々とあってその部分が延々とあるので中々本文が始まらんのですが、最初の所に『Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations』という政策金利自体が動かない中ではこっちも何気に現世利益なパートがあるのですが、これを読んでいると時間が無くなってしまいますので涙を呑んでいつものインスタント逆順読み。
という訳で『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』のケツからインスタント鑑賞会を行いますとですな・・・・・・・・・・・・・・
・オペの話かよ
一番ケツのパラは割と長いのですが・・・・・・・・・・・
『Participants discussed the open market operations that the Federal Reserve had undertaken since September to implement monetary policy, as well as forthcoming operational measures.』
『Participants agreed that the operations undertaken by the Desk since mid-September had been effective in helping to stabilize conditions in money markets and that implementation of the plan that the Committee announced in October to purchase Treasury bills and conduct repo operations had proceeded smoothly.』
でもって9月半ばにぶっこんだ各種措置は短期金融市場の安定に貢献したとの評価ですな。
『Participants observed that enactment of this plan had succeeded in replenishing reserve balances to levels at or above those prevailing in early September 2019 and in ensuring continued control of the federal funds rate.』
その後もリザーブバランスを補充することによってFF金利の安定したコントロールに寄与したとの評価。
『Many participants stressed that, as reserves approached durably ample levels, the need for sizable Treasury bill purchases and repo operations would diminish and that such operations could be gradually scaled back or phased out.』
『Beyond that point, regular open market operations would be required over time in order to accommodate the trend growth in the Federal Reserve's liabilities and maintain an ample level of reserves.』
『Participants who commented on the Desk's proposal for the transition to the ample-reserves regime indicated that they were comfortable with that proposal. They remarked that the details of the Committee's plans would be adjusted as appropriate to support effective implementation of monetary policy.』
『Participants noted that it would be important to continue to communicate to the public that open market operations now and in the period ahead were technical operations aimed at achieving and maintaining ample reserves and that any adjustments to those operations were not intended to represent a change in the stance of monetary policy.』
『Several participants suggested that the Committee should resume before long its discussion of the role that repo operations might play in an ample-reserves regime, including the possible creation of a standing repo facility.』
『With regard to the Committee's price-stability objective, participants observed that the current degree of monetary policy accommodation would be useful in facilitating a return of inflation to 2 percent.』
『Several participants noted that inflation returning to 2 percent would help ensure that longer-term inflation expectations remained consistent with the Committee's longer-run inflation objective.』
『A few participants stressed that the Committee should be more explicit about the need to achieve its inflation goal on a sustained basis.』
数名(A fewだから3名程度の筈)の参加者は物価2%安定目標に関してより明示的になるべきと指摘。
『Several participants suggested that inflation modestly exceeding 2 percent for a period would be consistent with the achievement of the Committee's longer-run inflation objective and that such mild overshooting might underscore the symmetry of that objective.』
数名(Several)の参加者は「inflation modestly exceeding 2 percent for a period」であっても無問題だし、むしろシンメトリックターゲットの観点からしたら望ましい、というお話。
『With regard to the Committee's maximum employment objective, a few participants observed that the actual level of employment might still be below maximum employment and that maintaining the present monetary policy stance would allow the economy to achieve that maximum level.』
『A couple of other participants expressed concern that tight labor markets have in the past been associated with economic and financial imbalances and that the emergence of such imbalances might jeopardize the longer-run attainment of the Committee's dual-mandate goals.』
『In commenting on the monetary policy outlook, participants concurred that maintaining the current stance of policy would give the Committee time for a fuller assessment of the ongoing effects on economic activity of last year's shift to a more accommodative policy stance and would also allow policymakers to accumulate further information bearing on the economic outlook.』
『Participants discussed how maintaining the current policy stance for a time could be helpful in supporting U.S. economic activity and employment in the face of global developments that have been weighing on spending decisions.』
『In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants judged that it would be appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent to support sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation returning to the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective.』
政策金利は維持。
『With regard to monetary policy beyond this meeting, participants viewed the current stance of policy as likely to remain appropriate for a time, provided that incoming information about the economy remained broadly consistent with this economic outlook. Of course, if developments emerged that led to a material reassessment of the outlook, an adjustment to the stance of monetary policy would be appropriate, in order to foster achievement of the Committee's dual-mandate objectives.』
[外部リンク] 11, 2020 Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress Chair Jerome H. Powell Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, D.C.
引用はHTMLバージョン(の方が楽なので)から行います。
・経済はいつもの話ですがやや海外部分にウェイトが掛かっている読後感(個人の感想です)
最初が『Current Economic Situation』です。
『The economic expansion is well into its 11th year, and it is the longest on record. Over the second half of last year, economic activity increased at a moderate pace and the labor market strengthened further, as the economy appeared resilient to the global headwinds that had intensified last summer. Inflation has been low and stable but has continued to run below the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) symmetric 2 percent objective.』
『Job gains averaged 200,000 per month in the second half of last year, and an additional 225,000 jobs were added in January. The pace of job gains has remained above what is needed to provide jobs for new workers entering the labor force, allowing the unemployment rate to move down further over the course of last year. The unemployment rate was 3.6 percent last month and has been near half-century lows for more than a year. Job openings remain plentiful. Employers are increasingly willing to hire workers with fewer skills and train them. As a result, the benefits of a strong labor market have become more widely shared. People who live and work in low- and middle-income communities are finding new opportunities. Employment gains have been broad based across all racial and ethnic groups and levels of education. Wages have been rising, particularly for lower-paying jobs.』
『Growth in consumer spending moderated toward the end of the year following earlier strong increases, but the fundamentals supporting household spending remain solid.』
『Residential investment turned up in the second half, but business investment and exports were weak, largely reflecting sluggish growth abroad and trade developments.』
『Those same factors weighed on activity at the nation's factories, whose output declined over the first half of 2019 and has been little changed, on net, since then.』
これによって国内製造業の生産にも影響していて生産は昨年から減少しちょるしまだその状況続くと。
『The February Monetary Policy Report discusses the recent weakness in manufacturing. Some of the uncertainties around trade have diminished recently, but risks to the outlook remain. In particular, we are closely monitoring the emergence of the coronavirus, which could lead to disruptions in China that spill over to the rest of the global economy.』
『Inflation ran below the FOMC's symmetric 2 percent objective throughout 2019.』
次のパラグラフは物価。
『Over the 12 months through December, overall inflation based on the price index for personal consumption expenditures was 1.6 percent. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was also 1.6 percent. Over the next few months, we expect inflation to move closer to 2 percent, as unusually low readings from early 2019 drop out of the 12-month calculation.』
『The nation faces important longer-run challenges.』
経済物価情勢の最後はロンガーランのチャレンジの話。
『Labor force participation by individuals in their prime working years is at its highest rate in more than a decade. However, it remains lower than in most other advanced economies, and there are troubling labor market disparities across racial and ethnic groups and across regions of the country.』
『In addition, although it is encouraging that productivity growth, the main engine for raising wages and living standards over the longer term, has moved up recently, productivity gains have been subpar throughout this economic expansion.』
『Finding ways to boost labor force participation and productivity growth would benefit Americans and should remain a national priority.』
『Over the second half of 2019, the FOMC shifted to a more accommodative stance of monetary policy to cushion the economy from weaker global growth and trade developments and to promote a faster return of inflation to our symmetric 2 percent objective. We lowered the federal funds target range at our July, September, and October meetings, bringing the current target range to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent.』
というのは昨年利下げした話。
『At our subsequent meetings, with some uncertainties surrounding trade having diminished and amid some signs that global growth may be stabilizing, the Committee left the policy rate unchanged.』
『The FOMC believes that the current stance of monetary policy will support continued economic growth, a strong labor market, and inflation returning to the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective.』
いつもどおり、というかここで違う話をしたら腰抜けるわ。
『As long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with this outlook, the current stance of monetary policy will likely remain appropriate. Of course, policy is not on a preset course. If developments emerge that cause a material reassessment of our outlook, we would respond accordingly.』
『Taking a longer view, there has been a decline over the past quarter-century in the level of interest rates consistent with stable prices and the economy operating at its full potential. This low interest rate environment may limit the ability of central banks to reduce policy interest rates enough to support the economy during a downturn.』
『With this concern in mind, we have been conducting a review of our monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices.』
政策ストラテジーやツールやコミュニケーションの見直しを行っております。
『Public engagement is at the heart of this effort. Through our Fed Listens events, we have been hearing from representatives of consumer, labor, business, community, and other groups. The February Monetary Policy Report shares some of what we have learned. The insights we have gained from these events have informed our framework discussions, as reported in the minutes of our meetings.』
『Putting the federal budget on a sustainable path when the economy is strong would help ensure that policymakers have the space to use fiscal policy to assist in stabilizing the economy during a downturn. A more sustainable federal budget could also support the economy's growth over the long term.』
『The February Monetary Policy Report provides details of our operations to date. Last October, the FOMC announced a plan to purchase Treasury bills and conduct repo operations. These actions have been successful in providing an ample supply of reserves to the banking system and effective control of the federal funds rate.』
これまでやったことの話ですな。
『As our bill purchases continue to build reserves toward levels that maintain ample conditions, we intend to gradually transition away from the active use of repo operations. Also, as reserves reach durably ample levels, we intend to slow our purchases to a pace that will allow our balance sheet to grow in line with trend demand for our liabilities.』
『All of these technical measures support the efficient and effective implementation of monetary policy. They are not intended to represent a change in the stance of monetary policy. As always, we stand ready to adjust the details of our technical operations as conditions warrant.』
