[外部リンク] Williams on Economic Recovery, Yield Curve and Monetary Policy Bloomberg The Open May 28th, 2020, 12:02 AM GMT+0900
『Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams discusses the outlook for the U.S. economy and monetary policy amid the Covid-19 pandemic. He speaks with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Mike McKee on "Bloomberg The Open." (Source: Bloomberg)』(上記URL先より)
15分52秒もありやがるのでちとアタクシの貧相な英語力(もそうだが15分の話を聞いてると記憶力の方がアレで最初に何を言ったか覚えられない自信がある)ではアレですので、コロナちゃんと金融政策というネタでは先週こんなのがありましたので代替手段でちょっと拝読。なおクッソどうでも良いのですが、NY連銀のトップページに行くと今ならウィリアムズのどアップ画像(ビデオコンファレンスでのご尊顔)が鑑賞できます。 [外部リンク] Economy in the Time of Coronavirus May 21, 2020 John C. Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer Remarks at the Buffalo Niagara Partnership, the Greater Rochester Chamber of Commerce, and CenterState CEO (delivered via videoconference)
んな訳でこちらも最初の小見出し『Introduction』はただのご挨拶だし、次の『A Diverse State』という小見出しの所は、
『One of the particular strengths of New York State is its diversity-and this is especially true from an economic perspective. In Western and Central New York there are top-tier universities, manufacturing businesses, a thriving professional services industry, as well as popular tourist destinations.
『Despite this extraordinary uncertainty, at the Federal Reserve we worked quickly to put measures in place to support the economy and set the foundation for a strong recovery.』
はい。
『During the first half of March, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) brought the target range for the federal funds rate to near zero.1 The FOMC has indicated that it expects to keep interest rates at this level until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.2』
はいそうですね。
『Bringing interest rates down to near zero serves two purposes. First, low interest rates make it easier for households and businesses to meet their borrowing needs. Second, they foster broader financial conditions that will help promote the rebound in spending and investment needed to return the economy to full strength.』
『Working alongside our colleagues in the Federal Reserve and other agencies, we are taking rapid and significant actions to supply liquidity and to stabilize critical parts of our financial system.』
ほうほうそれでそれで?
『By conducting large-scale repo operations and purchasing sizable quantities of U.S. Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities, we are providing funding and stability at a time of extraordinary volatility in markets.3』
いきなりシステムレポを盛大に増やしたという話から入ります。
『These actions averted a potential shutdown in the availability of credit, which would have made the current economic crisis even more severe.』
『In addition to stabilizing financial markets, the Federal Reserve is standing up programs to support the flow of credit to households, businesses, and state and local governments. These actions will enable them to continue to do their work, both now and when normal life resumes.4』
『Our efforts supporting the provision of credit include a number of programs aimed at different parts of the economy and work through different channels. One set of programs supports the availability of credit to households and businesses-importantly, including small and medium-sized businesses. A second set of programs targets the availability of credit to states and municipalities.』
クレジットプログラムは企業向けと地方政府や地方自治体向けの2本立てとな。
『Fiscal policy is also playing a critically important role. In particular, it can do what monetary policy cannot: provide for the public health response and transfer income to those most affected by the outbreak. Fiscal policy is also a vital partner in the delivery of our own programs, supplying the financial support necessary for the extraordinary scale of the credit facilities we’re operating.』
なお、ダラス連銀のサイトを見に行ったらトップの所に、 [外部リンク] Service Providers in Region See Long Road to COVID-19 Recovery, Fed Survey Shows Anna Crockett and Emily Ryder Perlmeter May 28, 2020
『Across the country, workers are facing an economic crisis along with a health crisis caused by COVID-19. Reduced wages, fewer hours and job losses have hit many households hard. This is particularly true in low-income communities and communities of color and for those who are in need but are not receiving state and federal assistance. During this time of uncertainty, community leaders are working hard to assist those who need immediate relief.』
『At the Dallas Fed, we're working to support the financial health of the people and businesses in the Eleventh District as we deal with this unprecedented crisis. On this page, you’ll find many resources, including recent interviews from Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan and articles published from our staff.』
はてどんな作品があるのかと思って最初のをポチっとなとしましたら、
[外部リンク] Dallas Fed Social Distancing Index Gives Insight into COVID-19’s Economic Impact Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas, Christoffer Koch, Evan Koenig, Karel Mertens, Anthony Murphy and Kei-Mu Yi
『As the human and economic toll from the COVID-19 pandemic mounts, near-term forecasts of output and employment are crucial for assessing appropriate monetary, fiscal and health policy responses. An appropriate real-time index of social distancing can provide valuable real-time insight into the economic impact.』
[外部リンク] Realities, Different Recoveries May 21, 2020 Tom Barkin President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
別に長いコラムでもないのですが途中から引用しますと、
『It’s worth noting a socioeconomic split underlies these different realities. Based on credit card data, wealthier households, whose members are largely still working and doing so from home, are spending less; in contrast, low-income households, living much closer to the edge, have largely maintained their spending.』
『According to a recent survey by the Federal Reserve Board, 39 percent of those making less than $40,000 per year have faced a job loss in the past two months, compared to 13 percent making more than $100,000 per year.』
低所得者層に雇用もモロに直撃。
『The unemployment rate for those with less than a high school education is more than 20 percent, more than double that of those who have a bachelor’s degree or higher (8 percent). And of course, the former group has less savings to buffer them in their time of distress. This crisis has further solidified the ability to work from home as a divider: 63 percent of those with a bachelor’s degree are in jobs where they’re able to work from home during the crisis; compared to only 23 percent of those with a high school degree or less. The differential availability of broadband access exacerbates this gap.』
最終学歴によっても雇用への影響が思いっきり異なると。
『Increasingly, as I talk to consumers and retailers, I hear that these differences may matter when we talk about the pace of recovery. We may see the economy come back at different speeds for different parts of the economy.』
うんうん、仰せの通りですわ。
『Higher-income households are cautious and can afford to be. Many of their jobs can continue to be done remotely. Many have taken the message that their absence from the workplace has protected their health; they may be reluctant to reengage too quickly. They can get much of what they need done through online channels, until such time as they believe they can shop without undue health risk. In a recent Gallup poll, 73 percent of those with a college degree said testing would have to be widespread before they would return to normal activities, versus an estimated 51 percent without that degree.』
『But lower-income households may well be coming back to stores more quickly because they can’t afford not to - many live paycheck to paycheck. Fiscal payments put money in their pockets, which history suggests will be spent rapidly on needs they have left unfulfilled. Access to online commerce is more limited, especially for those without access to credit or broadband.』
『And if you work shoulder-to-shoulder (even 6 feet apart) in a production environment, then going to a store perhaps isn’t seen as such a large incremental risk. Lower-price retailers tell me sales are returning toward normal at a faster pace than I hear from higher-priced retailers. I hear similar strength in smaller, economically distressed towns that haven’t had significant outbreaks.』
『These different realities have implications for how widely shared our recovery will be, and because they also imply differing levels of health risk, implications for the course of the virus itself. I am watching both closely.』
[外部リンク] of the Federal Open Market Committee April 28-29, 2020 A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held by conference call on Tuesday, April 28, 2020, at 1:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, April 29, 2020, at 9:00 a.m.1
『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』を素直に頭から。
最初が経済物価情勢の現状判断。
『Participants noted that the coronavirus outbreak was causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The virus and the measures taken to protect public health were inducing sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices were holding down consumer price inflation. The disruptions to economic activity here and abroad had significantly affected financial conditions and had impaired the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.』
『Participants judged that the effects of the coronavirus outbreak and the ongoing public health crisis would continue to weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term and would pose considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.』
コロナちゃんの拡大とそれによる公衆衛生危機は経済活動と雇用と物価に対してin the near termで大きな足かせになって、over the medium termで経済見通しにconsiderable risksということで、4月末現在ということではありますが、最大級の懸念を示していますな。でもってこのパラグラフはまだ続きまして、
『Participants assessed that the second quarter would likely see overall economic activity decline at an unprecedented rate. Participants relayed information from their Districts that the burdens of the present crisis would fall disproportionately on the most vulnerable and financially constrained households in the economy.』
元々経済基盤の弱い人に今回の悪影響はモロに来る、という話。
『Participants agreed that recently enacted fiscal programs were delivering valuable direct financial aid to households, businesses, and communities that would provide some relief during the economic shutdown.』
『In addition, economic activity was being supported by actions taken by the Federal Reserve, including lending facilities created under the authority of section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, some of which included capital allocated by the U.S. Treasury.』
『These programs had helped maintain the flow of credit to households, businesses, and state and local governments, while supporting the smooth functioning of financial markets.』
『Regarding the economic activity of households, participants noted that the pandemic and efforts to mitigate the spread of the disease were having severely adverse effects on aggregate household spending and consumer confidence.』
コロナの影響で家計の消費や消費者信頼感にシビアーな悪影響が、ってそらそうだわな。
『Participants reported that consumer spending had plummeted across all parts of the country and in most categories of spending, with especially sharp declines in expenditures for categories that had been most affected by social distancing, such as hotel, fuel, air travel, restaurant, theater, and other retail products and services.』
前もこんな話してたけど業種が増えているような気がする。
『Participants noted that even after government-imposed social-distancing restrictions came to an end, consumer spending in these categories likely would not return quickly to more normal levels.』
『Survey-based measures of consumer confidence also plunged, a development that participants and District contacts attributed to households' concerns regarding the risk of job loss or difficulty in meeting financial obligations. Participants noted that some households experiencing job losses may not immediately face lower total income because of the support from recently enacted fiscal programs. Even in such cases, however, participants observed that household spending would likely be held down by a decrease in confidence and an increase in precautionary saving.』
『Participants noted that business activity and investment spending had also fallen dramatically since the previous meeting as a result of efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak.』
てな訳で次は企業セクター。
『Manufacturing output declined sharply in March and was expected by participants to drop even more rapidly in April. In all Districts, some businesses had been forced to close temporarily because of social distancing restrictions. Businesses that were able to remain open to some degree were also substantially affected by the pandemic, with many experiencing either substantial drops in new orders and sales or supply chain disruptions.』
コロナちゃんのせいで販売落ちたり製造落ちたりおまけにサプライチェーンまでアカンとかいう話の次は、
『There were widespread reports from District contacts of firms reducing their payrolls and curtailing plans for investment spending. Some industries were especially hard hit, including airlines, cruise ships, restaurants, and tourism. Participants reported that many firms were seeking loans,payment deferrals, or grants to help address critical financial obligations and that the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was providing valuable assistance to small businesses in this respect.』
『Participants also noted the disproportionate burdens or particular challenges being faced by small businesses; these challenges included lower cash buffers, fewer financing options, and, more recently, tighter lending standards. Participants expressed concerns that a large number of small businesses may not be able to endure a shock that had long-lasting financial effects.』
より小規模の企業に対して更に厳しいし影響は長く残る可能性がある。
『Participants were further concerned that even after social-distancing requirements were eased, some business models may no longer be economically viable, which could occur, for example, if consumers voluntarily continued to avoid participating in particular forms of economic activity.』
ソーシャルディスタンシングによって変わるビジネスモデルもあるかも。
『In addition, participants expressed concern that the possibility of secondary outbreaks of the virus may cause businesses for some time to be reluctant to engage in new projects, rehire workers, or make new capital expenditures.』
『Participants observed that conditions in the energy sector had become especially difficult.』
わざわざパラグラフを別にしてエネルギーセクターのお話を。
『A sharp reduction in global demand for petroleum had led to unused supply that was overwhelming storage capacity, resulting in a plunge in oil prices. Some participants expressed concern that low energy prices, if they were to persist, had the potential to create a wave of bankruptcies in the energy sector.』
原油価格の低迷が持続した場合にはエネルギーセクターの「a wave of bankruptcies」を起こす可能性がある、とかまたこれは刺激的な言い方。
『In addition, the agricultural sector was under severe stress due to falling prices for some farm commodities and pandemic-related disruptions, such as the closing of some food processing plants.』
『With regard to the labor market, participants noted that incoming data confirmed that an extreme decline in employment was under way.』
extreme declineとな、まあそうですけど。
『Nationally, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits had totaled more than 25 million from mid-March to the time of the meeting, and participants expected that the unemployment rate would soon reach the highest levels of the post?World War II period.』
左様でしたな。
『District contacts reported that a significant portion of workers had been able to switch to working remotely. Although many employers were trying to keep workers on their payrolls, over time, as conditions persisted, there had begun to be widespread furloughs and layoffs.』
一時休暇やレイオフの流れが広がってきているとな。
『Participants were concerned that temporary layoffs could become permanent, and that workers who lose employment could face a loss of job-specific skills or may become discouraged and exit the labor force.』
『Participants were additionally concerned that employees who were on low incomes would be the most severely affected by job cuts because they were employed in the industries most affected by the response to the outbreak or because their jobs were not amenable to being carried out remotely.』
また低所得者が煽りを食らいやすい話をしています。
『With regard to inflation, participants noted that it had been running below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective before the coronavirus outbreak.』
次は物価の話ですが、
『While the pandemic had created some supply constraints, which had generated upward pressure on the prices of some goods, the pandemic had also reduced demand, which had exerted downward pressure on prices. The overall effect of the outbreak on prices was seen as disinflationary. In addition, a stronger dollar and lower oil prices were factors likely to put downward pressure on inflation, and market-based measures of inflation compensation remained very low.』
まあだいたい雇用がコケ出すとインフレの話はあっちの方に飛んでしまうのがFEDの仕様なので(別にそれはFEDだけではないと思いますが)物価の話はそんなに身が入っているような感じの字面にはなっていない気がする(個人の感想です)。なお、コロナちゃんの影響に関して「The overall effect of the outbreak on prices was seen as disinflationary.」と全体としてみればディスインフレーショナリーだという評価をしていますな。
『Participants observed that the return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective would likely be further delayed but that the accommodative stance of monetary policy would be helpful in achieving the 2 percent inflation objective over the longer run.』
『Participants noted that recently enacted fiscal programs were crucial for limiting the severity of the economic downturn. In particular, the Cares Act and other legislation, which represented more than $2 trillion in federal spending in total, had provided direct help to households, businesses, and communities.』
そら高評価するわな。
『For example, the PPP was providing a financial lifeline to small businesses, the expansion of unemployment benefits was helping restore lost income for laid-off workers, and the Treasury had provided a necessary financial backstop to many Federal Reserve lending facilities. Participants acknowledged that even greater fiscal support may be necessary if the economic downturn persists.』
『Participants commented that, in addition to weighing heavily on economic activity in the near term, the economic effects of the pandemic created an extraordinary amount of uncertainty and considerable risks to economic activity in the medium term.』
「an extraordinary amount of uncertainty and considerable risks」って何か勇壮な(勇壮じゃないけど)表現。
『Participants discussed several alternative scenarios with regard to the behavior of economic activity in the medium term that all seemed about equally likely. These scenarios differed in the assumed length of the pandemic and the consequent economic disruptions.』
結局はパンでミックの動向とその経済活動への影響次第だわさ。
『On the one hand, a number of participants judged that there was a substantial likelihood of additional waves of outbreak in the near or medium term. In such scenarios, it was believed likely that there would be further economic disruptions, including additional periods of mandatory social distancing, greater supply chain dislocations, and a substantial number of business closures and loss of income; in total, such developments could lead to a protracted period of severely reduced economic activity.』
またアウトブレイクが起きたらそらもうあばばばばーよ、というシナリオなのですが。
『On the other hand, economic activity could recover more quickly if the pandemic subsided enough for households and businesses to become sufficiently confident to relax or modify social-distancing behaviors over the next several months.』
さてこのハッピーシナリオが達成できるか。
『Beyond these considerations, participants noted the risk that foreign economies, particularly EMEs, could come under extreme pressure as a result of the pandemic and that this strain could spill over to and hamper U.S. economic activity.』
『Participants stressed that measures taken in the areas of health-care policy and fiscal policy, together with actions by the private sector, would be important in shaping the timing and speed of the U.S. economy's return to more normal conditions.』
そら(感染症拡大防止が)そう(経済にとってキーになる)よ。
『In addition, participants agreed that recent actions taken by the Federal Reserve were essential in helping reduce downside risks to the economic outlook.』
『Participants also noted several risks to long-term economic performance that were posed by the pandemic.』
コロナの影響によって経済の長期的なパフォーマンスにどういう影響がありますかという話。
『One of these risks was that workers who lose employment as a result of the pandemic may experience a loss of skills, lose access to adequate childcare or eldercare, or become discouraged and exit the labor force. The longer-term behavior of firms could be affected as well-for instance, if necessary but costly transmission-mitigation strategies lowered firms' productivity; if business investment shifted down permanently; if many firms need to adjust their business models in the aftermath of the pandemic; or if business closures, particularly those of small firms, became widespread.』
『A few participants noted that higher levels of government indebtedness, which would be exacerbated by fiscal expenditures that were necessary to combat the economic effects of the pandemic, could put downward pressure on growth in aggregate potential output.』
[外部リンク] of the Federal Open Market Committee April 28-29, 2020 A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held by conference call on Tuesday, April 28, 2020, at 1:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, April 29, 2020, at 9:00 a.m.1
『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』の最終パラグラフだけネタにして他のパラをネタにするのをパスしてたのを忘れてましたすいませんすいません(健忘症)。
『In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants noted that the Federal Reserve was committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.』
『In light of their assessment that the ongoing public health crisis would weigh heavilyon economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term and posed considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term, all participants judged that it would be appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent.』
実質ゼロ金利据え置き。
『Keeping the target range at the effective lower bound, after quickly reducing it by 150 basis points in March, would continue to provide support to the economy and promote the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.』
『Participants also judged that it would be appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at its present level until policymakers were confident that the economy had weathered recent events and was on track to achieve the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.』
『Participants also assessed that it was appropriate for the Federal Reserve to continue to purchase Treasury securities and agency residential-mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and CMBS in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning. These open market purchases would continue to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby foster the effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, the Desk would continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repo operations.』
あくまでもオペの方は「support smooth market functioning」であり、「support the flow of credit」なのであって・・・・・・・
『Participants noted that it was important to continue to monitor market conditions closely and that the Committee was prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate to support smooth functioning in the markets for these securities.』
『Participants also commented that the multiple lending facilities established by the Federal Reserve under the authority of section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act and, in some cases, involving capital allocated by the Treasury were supporting financial market functioning and the flow of credit to households, businesses of all sizes, and state and local governments.』
はい。
『In this way, these emergency lending facilities were intended to help support the economy until pandemic-related credit market disruptions had abated.』
『Several participants commented further that it would be important for the Federal Reserve to remain ready to adjust these emergency lending facilities as appropriate based on its monitoring of financial market functioning and credit conditions.』
『Regarding developments in financial markets, participants agreed that ongoing actions by the Federal Reserve had been instrumental in easing strains in some essential financial markets and supporting the flow of credit. These actions included large-scale purchases of Treasury securities and agency MBS, measures to reduce strains in global U.S. dollar funding markets, and the launch of programs to support the flow of credit in the economy for households, businesses of all sizes, and state and local governments. Banks had entered the crisis well capitalized and had been able to provide necessary credit to businesses and households.』
『A number of participants commented on potential risks to financial stability.』
ほうほうそれでそれで???
『Participants were concerned that banks could come under greater stress, particularly if adverse scenarios for the spread of the pandemic and economic activity were realized, and so this sector should be monitored carefully.』
『Participants saw risks to banks and some other financial institutions as exacerbated by high levels of indebtedness among nonfinancial corporations that prevailed before the pandemic; this indebtedness increased these firms' risk of insolvency.』
『The upcoming financial stress tests for banks were seen as important for measuring the ability of large banks to withstand future downside scenarios.』
んな訳でストレステストちゃんとやらんとな、というご指摘。
『A number of participants emphasized that regulators should encourage banks to prepare for possible downside scenarios by further limiting payouts to shareholders, thereby preserving loss-absorbing capital.』
『A few participants stressed that the activities of some nonbank financial institutions presented vulnerabilities to the financial system that could worsen in the event of a protracted economic downturn and that these institutions and activities should be monitored closely.』
[外部リンク] Main Street Lending Program and Other Federal Reserve Actions The Main Street Lending Program and Other Federal Reserve Actions By Eric S. Rosengren May 19, 2020 (リンクはちゃんと組んでますので途中までしか無いように見えますがちゃんと飛ぶはずです)
こちらのHTML(何故か拡張子がaspxなのですがこの連銀)が超要約ページして、
本文は [外部リンク] Takeaways from Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren’s May 19』ってことですが、その下に『Listen to recording of Remarks to the New England Council』ってのがあるのですけれども、リンク先のURLを見たらZoomを踏むようですな。うーんこの。
『1.Takeaway: The absolutely necessary response to the COVID-19 pandemic - social distancing, aimed at protecting lives - comes at a high economic cost. The recent employment report underscores the unprecedented speed and ferocity with which jobs have been affected by this public health crisis.』
『Excerpt: “I expect that the unemployment rate will likely peak at close to 20 percent. Unfortunately, even by the end of the year, I expect the unemployment rate to remain at double-digit levels. This outlook is both sobering and a call to action. Now is the time for both monetary and fiscal policy to act boldly to minimize the economic pain from the pandemic.”』
失業率は近く20%とかになって来るでしょうし、年末でも2桁水準なので「a call to action」ですよと従来タカ派系だったローゼングレン総裁もこの有様キタコレという話で、しかも「both monetary and fiscal policy to act boldly」と暴れん坊政策が求められるとまで来ましたな。
『2.Takeaway: It is important that our progress to date not be undone, and simply allowing business to reopen is not a panacea. Our economic challenges are rooted in public health concerns. If consumers are not comfortable visiting restaurants and shops, relaxing restrictions may do little to bring back business and jobs.』
「simply allowing business to reopen is not a panacea」と来まして、なんかこう緊急事態宣言を全面解除した途端にゴージャパンキャンペーンとか出てきているどこかの国と比較すると目から汗が。
『Excerpt: “Public health solutions are paramount - without them, it will be virtually impossible to return to full employment. It is vital that the design and timing of reductions in business restrictions not result in worse health outcomes and higher unemployment over a longer period of time.”』
『3.Takeaway: The Fed has taken strong actions to mitigate the economic consequences of the pandemic. We want to limit the potential for medium- and longer-term “scarring” from the crisis. This means, among other things, working to minimize the length of unemployment spells and ensuring solvent firms have necessary liquidity. 』
てな訳でFEDの役割分担の話に来ました。これはスライドの11枚目の所からの話になります。
『Excerpt: “Preventing bouts of financial instability from having significant spillovers to the flow of credit to consumers and businesses is a vital crisis role for central banks, and the Fed has aggressively played that role during this very challenging period.”』
でもって同じスライドの所の話なのですが、ここを独立させて説明していまして・・・・・・・
『4.Takeaway: It is important to note that the powers granted to the Federal Reserve for emergency actions involve “lending, not spending.” All of the Fed’s programs involve loans, to be repaid - they are not grants by the Fed. 』
スライドの方で“lending, not spending.”とあるlendingの方は斜字体になっています。この「lending, not spending.」ってのは思いっきり茲許のFED高官から言われているので見慣れていると思いますし、ローゼングレン総裁はわざわざ「All of the Fed’s programs involve loans, to be repaid」と「返済されるもの」とまでゆうてまして、3番のテイクアウェイの所でも「ensuring solvent firms have necessary liquidity」とあるように、バジョット・ルールの観点に則っているという話をしてるんですよね。どこぞの日銀は爪の垢を煎じて飲んで欲しい。
『Excerpt: “Lending can play a crucial role in a crisis and in bridging to more normal conditions.”』
てなわけで各種施策の説明になる。
『5.Takeaway: The Main Street Lending Program, expected to open in the coming weeks at the Boston Fed, is one of the Federal Reserve’s more innovative and important programs. It is designed to help credit flow to small- and medium-sized businesses that were in good financial condition prior to the crisis, but now need loans that can help them until they have recovered from, or adapted to, the impact of the pandemic. 』
『Excerpt: “This is an important program, and we’ve worked very hard to get it right. We listened carefully to initial feedback and expanded the program in a number of ways to serve a wider range of borrowers. It will not be able to assist everyone, but we expect that it will provide an important bridge for many businesses that employ much of the American workforce.”』
んでまあスライド13枚目位に『Figure 6: 90-Day Yields on Highly-Rated Commercial Paper February 18, 2020 - May 15, 2020』ってのがあって、これは先般ネタにしたNY連銀ブログと被りますから見たことあると思いますけれども、FEDの各種施策の効果の話ということでMMLFの話をしています。
14、15枚目はMMFのインフローアウトフローのデイリーの数値。MMLFの効果の説明ですな『Figure 7: Daily Change in Prime and Government Money Market Fund Assets Under Management February 18, 2020 - May 15, 2020』、『Figure 8: Prime and Government Money Market Fund Assets Under Management February 18, 2020 - May 15, 2020』になります。
『6.Takeaway: How we respond to this public health crisis will greatly influence whether many of these temporary job losses become permanent. As Fed policymakers, we will continue to vigilantly pursue ways to help the economy return to full employment.』
『Excerpt: “The economic shock is an unprecedented challenge for economic policymakers including the Federal Reserve, where we will do whatever we can to support a return to full employment and stable prices - our mandate from Congress - and our commitment to financial stability, which is important to the well-being of all Americans.”』
[外部リンク] of a New Fund-Provisioning Measure to Support Financing Mainly of Small and Medium-Sized Firms May 22, 2020 Bank of Japan
『3. In addition, with a view to maintaining stability in financial markets, the Bank has been providing ample yen and foreign currency funds without setting upper limits mainly through purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) and the conduct of the U.S. dollar fundssupplying operations, and has been actively purchasing exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs). 』(この部分だけ直上URL先の文書から引用)
[外部リンク] of the Federal Open Market Committee April 28-29, 2020 A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held by conference call on Tuesday, April 28, 2020, at 1:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, April 29, 2020, at 9:00 a.m.1
『Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations』の頭から参ります。
『The System Open Market Account (SOMA) manager first discussed developments in financial markets.』
ということで市場動向の説明から入る。
・金融市場の改善と市場の人たちの懸念事項について
『Financial conditions had shown notable improvement over recent weeks. Equity price indexes were up substantially from the lows of late March, safe-haven demands for the dollar had receded, and measures of realized and implied volatility across markets had diminished. Market participants pointed to swift and forceful actions taken by the Federal Reserve, coupled with strong fiscal measures, and some indications of a slowing in the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) in major economies as factors contributing to these developments.』
『That said, market participants remained very uncertain about the economic outlook, and contacts highlighted an array of remaining risks, including those in corporate credit markets, emerging markets, and mortgage markets.』
『In corporate credit markets, concerns about potential defaults were rising, and ratings agencies had put on negative watch or downgraded many issuers. In emerging markets, the steep decline in commodity prices was exacerbating financial pressures for some emerging market economies (EMEs), which were also facing strains arising from capital outflows and a reduction in trade activity. And in mortgage markets, the likely increase in mortgage delinquencies associated with forbearance polices and an eventual rise in defaults were sources of concern for bank and nonbank lenders.』
『Open Market Desk surveys suggested that market participants anticipated a sharp near-term decline in economic activity, followed by some recovery later this year. Against this backdrop, market participants generally expected the target range for the federal funds rate to remain at the effective lower bound for the next couple of years. Respondents to Desk surveys attached almost no probability to the FOMC implementing negative policy rates. Some survey respondents indicated that they expected modifications to the Committee's forward guidance, but not at the current meeting.』
『The manager then reviewed recent open market operations. Since mid-March, at the direction of the FOMC, the Desk had purchased very large quantities of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in order to support the smooth functioning of these critical markets.』
ディレクティブの「in order to support the smooth functioning of these critical markets.」でUSTとMBS買えってのも(買うこと自体は簡単だけど)判断基準難しいわよく考えてみたら。
『The Desk evaluated a broad array of indicators to assess market functioning. These indicators suggested considerable improvement in market functioning, and the Desk gradually scaled back the pace of purchases accordingly.』
まあ何はともあれ、「considerable improvement in market functioning, and the Desk gradually scaled back」な訳で、事実既にしらっと減額減額となっていまして、最初の減額の時だけ米国債券市場ネタにしてましたけど、最近はあんまり目立つネタ扱いにはなっていませんね。でもまあスケールバックをやっている訳でして、ぶっこむときには変なタイミングでのサプライズでボラ提供とかいろいろとハチャメチャだったりしますが、「出口政策が無くてそのままズブズブ長期戦」というジャパンの大東亜戦争のような事にならないという点ではFEDって優秀なんですよねと最近特に思うようになってきました。
『Market participants anticipated that the pace of purchases would slow after the June meeting, but they expected that outright securities holdings in the SOMA portfolio would continue to expand at least through the end of the year.』
『The SOMA manager expected that, if conditions continued to improve, the pace of purchases could be reduced somewhat further; however, consistent with the directive, the Desk was prepared to increase purchases as needed should market functioning worsen.』
『Conditions in money markets had improved over recent weeks. The intense strains across a range of short-term funding markets that emerged in March had subsided. The expansion of Federal Reserve repurchase agreement (repo) operations, the enhancement and expansion of funding available through the discount window and swap lines, and the funding provided through the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF), and the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) were likely important in relieving pressures across a range of short-term funding markets.』
次は短期市場の話で、レポ市場とかCP市場とかその辺の状況が改善していますという報告。
『The manager noted that, despite these improvements, rates in some term funding markets remained elevated, although forward measures suggested the upward pressure on these rates might ease in coming weeks.』
『With conditions in short-term funding markets having improved substantially and with repo operations no longer needed to maintain ample reserve levels, the manager noted that it might be appropriate to position the Federal Reserve's repurchase operations in a backstop role.』
『For example, the minimum bid rate in repo operations could be increased somewhat relative to the level of the interest rate on excess reserves (the IOER rate).』
『Later in the intermeeting period, short-term interest rates drifted lower and settled at near-zero levels.』
最近になって短期金利は下がってゼロ近くになったよ。
『Although rates appeared stable, the manager suggested that circumstances could arise in which temporarily raising the per-counterparty limit on the overnight reverse repo operation would support policy implementation.』
でもそれはオペの1社あたり限度額を一時的に拡大している効果が背景にあるよ。
『The manager also noted that some market participants anticipated that the Federal Reserve might increase the IOER rate in order to move the federal funds rate closer to the middle of the target range and to address market functioning issues that could arise over time with overnight rates at very low levels.』
『However, there appeared to be limited risk that the federal funds rate would move below the target range, as the Federal Home Loan Banks-the dominant lenders in the federal funds market-can earn a zero rate on balances maintained in their account at the Federal Reserve.』
『Moreover, there were few signs to date that the low level of overnight funding rates had adversely affected market functioning, and trading volumes remained robust. The SOMA manager noted that the staff would continue to monitor developments.』
『The Committee voted unanimously to renew the reciprocal currency arrangements with the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Mexico; these arrangements are associated with the Federal Reserve's participation in the North American Framework Agreement of 1994. In addition, the Committee voted unanimously to renew the dollar and foreign currency liquidity swap arrangements with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank. The votes to renew the Federal Reserve's participation in these standing arrangements occur annually at the April or May FOMC meeting.』
『By unanimous vote, the Committee ratified the Desk's domestic transactions over the intermeeting period. There were no intervention operations in foreign currencies for the System's account during the intermeeting period.』
ボストン連銀は記事のURLが長すぎでアカン(画面構成乱れると思うのでハイパーリンクは文字列の途中のところまでにしました) [外部リンク] Main Street Lending Program and Other Federal Reserve Actions The Main Street Lending Program and Other Federal Reserve Actions By Eric S. Rosengren May 19, 2020
19日と20日に同じ話をしておりまして、19日の方がこれです。なにせ最近は「どこどこでのインタビュー」とかはホイホイと出てくるのですが、その手の奴だと連銀サイトの方に無くてWSJなりCBNCなりブルームバーグなりのサイトに行かないと行けない上に文字起こしが無かったり、有料会員じゃないと見れなかったりとか制限が多くてアカンのでしたが、今回のはフルテキストに紙芝居も別途あってしかも上記URL先には『Key Takeaways from Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren’s May 19 Remarks Key Takeaways from Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren’s May 19 Remarks』というまとめまである親切設計。
スピーチ本文は [外部リンク] Fed Listens: How is COVID-19 Affecting Your Community? May 21, 2020 at 2:30 p.m. EDT Federal Reserve Board (via webcast)
というのが実施されまして、パウエルとブレイナードがご挨拶しているようですが読んでませんサーセン。
[外部リンク] 21, 2020 Opening Remarks Chair Jerome H. Powell At "A Fed Listens Event: How Is COVID-19 Affecting Your Community?," sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C. (via webcast)
[外部リンク] 21, 2020 Introductory remarks for the Fed Listens panel on the COVID-19 pandemic Governor Lael Brainard At “A Fed Listens Event: How Is COVID-19 Affecting Your Community?,” sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C., (via webcast)
[外部リンク] of the Federal Open Market Committee April 28-29, 2020 A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held by conference call on Tuesday, April 28, 2020, at 1:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, April 29, 2020, at 9:00 a.m.1
・次の政策強化はガイダンス強化になるのではなかろうかという記述をしてますな
毎度おなじみのインスタント読みをするとインスタント読みで最初に読むところ(『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』のケツ、『Committee Policy Action 』の手前)に読みどころがある気がします。
『While participants agreed that the current stance of monetary policy remained appropriate, they noted that the Committee could, at upcoming meetings, further clarify its intentions with respect to its future monetary policy decisions.』
『For example, the Committee could adopt outcome-based forward guidance that would specify macroeconomic outcomes-such as a certain level of the unemployment rate or of the inflation rate-that must be achieved before the Committee would consider raising the target range for the federal funds rate.』
『The Committee could also consider date-based forward guidance that would indicate that the target range could be raised only after a specified amount of time had elapsed.』
『These participants noted that such explicit forms of forward guidance could help ensure that the public's expectations regarding the future conduct of monetary policy continued to reflect the Committee's intentions.』
『Several participants observed that the completion, most likely later this year, of the monetary policy framework review, together with the announcement of the conclusions arising from the review, would help further clarify the Committee's intentions with respect to its future monetary policy actions.』
『Several participants also remarked that the Committee may need to provide further clarity regarding its intentions for purchases of Treasury securities and agency MBS; these participants noted that, without further communication on this matter, uncertainty about the evolution of the Federal Reserve's asset purchases could increase over time.』
『Several participants remarked that a program of ongoing Treasury securities purchases could be used in the future to keep longer-term yields low.』
『A few participants also noted that the balance sheet could be used to reinforce the Committee's forward guidance regarding the path of the federal funds rate through Federal Reserve purchases of Treasury securities on a scale necessary to keep Treasury yields at short- to medium-term maturities capped at specified levels for a period of time.』
でですね、まあ一応斜め読みとは言え『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』と『Committee Policy Action 』の部分については目を皿のようにして斜め読みしたんですが、マイナス金利の話って全然出ていないというか、そもそも政策金利をどうこうという話じゃない所でああでもないこうでもないという話をしているのが今回(4月)のFOMCって風情だと思いましたので(見落としがあったらゴメンチャイ)、まあFF先物とかパツキンヅラのツイッターなどから登場するマイナス金利云々ってのは大山鳴動して鼠一匹って感じなのかとは思うんですよね、まあやるとしたらガイダンスの明確化になるんじゃないですか???と個人の感想ですが思いました。
[外部リンク] 19, 2020 Coronavirus and CARES Act Chair Jerome H. Powell Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.
『Available economic data for the current quarter show a sharp drop in output and an equally sharp rise in unemployment. By these measures and many others, the scope and speed of this downturn are without modern precedent and are significantly worse than any recession since World War II.』
『Since the pandemic arrived in force just two months ago, more than 20 million people have lost their jobs, reversing nearly 10 years of job gains. This precipitous drop in economic activity has caused a level of pain that is hard to capture in words, as lives are upended amid great uncertainty about the future.』
『In addition to the economic disruptions, the virus has created tremendous strains in some essential financial markets and impaired the flow of credit in the economy.』
『The Federal Reserve's response to this extraordinary period has been guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people, along with our responsibilities to promote stability of the financial system.』
『We are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy in this challenging time even as we recognize that these actions are only a part of a broader public-sector response.』
『Congress's passage of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) was critical in enabling the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department to establish many of the lending programs that I discuss below.』
でもってこの次のパラグラフは、『establish many of the lending programs that I discuss below』の話になるのですが、最初のパラは、
『In discussing the actions we have taken, I will begin with monetary policy. In March, we lowered our policy interest rate to near zero, and we expect to maintain interest rates at this level until we are confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.』
と利下げの話をしまして、その次のパラは
『In addition to monetary policy, we took forceful measures in four areas: open market operations to restore market functioning; actions to improve liquidity conditions in short-term funding markets; programs in coordination with the Treasury Department to facilitate more directly the flow of credit to households, businesses, and state and local governments; and measures to allow and encourage banks to use their substantial capital and liquidity levels built up over the past decade to support the economy during this difficult time.』
『The tools that the Federal Reserve is using under its 13(3) authority are for times of emergency, such as the ones we have been living through. When economic and financial conditions improve, we will put these tools back in the toolbox.』
『The final area where we took steps was in bank regulation.』
あとはお察しだが引用だけ。
『The Board made several adjustments, many temporary, to encourage banks to use their positions of strength to support households and businesses. Unlike the 2008 financial crisis, banks entered this period with substantial capital and liquidity buffers and improved risk-management and operational resiliency. As a result, they have been well positioned to cushion the financial shocks we are seeing. In contrast to the 2008 crisis when banks pulled back from lending and amplified the economic shock, in this instance they have greatly expanded loans to customers. Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles spoke to you about these topics last week.』
『The Federal Reserve has been entrusted with an important mission, and we have taken unprecedented steps in very rapid fashion over the past few months.』
まあ利下げは早過ぎて債券市場のボラを大爆発させましたけどね!!!
『In doing so, we embrace our responsibility to the American people to be as transparent as possible. We are deeply committed to transparency, and recognize that the need for transparency is heightened when we are called upon to use our emergency powers. This is particularly the case when Congress appropriates taxpayer funds to back lending programs that the Fed administers.』
『In connection with the CARES Act facilities-including the two corporate credit facilities, the Main Street Lending Program, the Municipal Liquidity Facility, and the TALF-we will be disclosing, on a monthly basis, names and details of participants in each facility; amounts borrowed and interest rate charged; and overall costs, revenues, and fees for each facility.』
あと、この発言探すためにBOEのサイトを漁っていたら、 [外部リンク] interbank market puzzle Staff working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate. Published on15 May 2020 Staff Working Paper No. 862
[外部リンク] NonPharmaceutical Intervention、NPI)によって、需給バランスはどのように影響を受けるのだろうか。本稿では、米国のマクロ経済学者である Guerrieri, Lorenzoni, Straub, and Werning が最新の理論モデル を使って分析した“Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?”を紹介するi。』
『i Guerrieri, Veronica(シカゴ大学), Guido Lorenzoni (ノースウェスタン大学), Ludwig Straub(ハーバード大学), and Ivan Werning(マサチューセッツ工科大学)(2020) “Macroeconomic Implications of COVID19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?” [外部リンク] イングランド銀行・金融政策委員会の学者出身メ ンバーである Tenreyro の最近のスピーチでは、同論文が 2 回も引用されていた。Tenreyro, Silvana (2020) “Monetary Policy during Pandemics: Inflation before, during and after COVID-19,” [外部リンク] 』
[外部リンク] Street Economics May 15, 2020 The Commercial Paper Funding Facility Nina Boyarchenko, Richard Crump, and Anna Kovner
『This post is part of an ongoing series on the credit and liquidity facilities established by the Federal Reserve to support households and businesses during the COVID-19 outbreak.』
ということで、先日も [外部リンク] 08, 2020 The Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility Marco Cipriani, Gabriele La Spada, Reed Orchinik, and Aaron Plesset
というのが出ていたのだが華麗にスルーしております(汗)。
でもってこのCP買入なんですけど、CPとは何ぞやとかそういう話はすっ飛ばしまして、
・背景としてはCPの金利がぶっ飛んだというのがあるがぶっ飛び方が大変に素敵である
『Background to the CPFF』
『In March, financial markets began to experience disruptions related to the outbreak of COVID-19, and the commercial paper market was no exception. Anecdotally, investors in the market were unwilling to extend credit to issuers except at very short maturities of less than five days. As the chart below shows, this reduced availability of credit coincided with yield-spread increases even for the highest-rated issuers-those with short-term credit ratings of A1 (Moody’s) or P1 (S&P)-across the maturity spectrum.』
『This market dislocation negatively impacted companies that needed to refinance their maturing commercial paper at a time when they urgently needed liquidity to fund operational disruptions.』
てなことが起きたので企業のリファイナンスなどに悪影響ですがな、ということで導入しましたという話。
・CP買入は「買入レートは平常時から見たら高い金利に設定」することによって・・・・・・・・・
『What is the CPFF?』 というのが次にありまして、まあそこは説明なのでサラサラ流しますけど、
『In light of these events, on March 17, the Federal Reserve announced the CPFF. The CPFF is a temporary liquidity facility authorized under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. It is funded with loans from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and includes a $10 billion equity investment from the U.S. Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund. The facility was announced on March 17 and began its operations on April 14.』
『The CPFF uses a structure that is similar to the CPFF facility introduced in the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in fall of 2008. The previous facility successfully ameliorated strains in the commercial paper market during the financial crisis (see this post for further information). The CPFF both supports commercial paper liquidity in the short run, by providing highly rated issuers with an alternative outlet for their current commercial paper issuance, and in the longer run, as both issuers and investors can be more confident about participating in the market knowing that issuers will be able to roll over outstanding commercial paper.』
でまあここの説明は良いとしましてその次の部分重要。
『By setting the rate at which it will purchase commercial paper at a premium to “normal” market pricing, the CPFF stands as a lender of last resort for the A1/P1 commercial paper market, with take-up expected to dissipate as market conditions normalize. 』
>By setting the rate at which it will purchase commercial paper at a premium to “normal” market pricing >By setting the rate at which it will purchase commercial paper at a premium to “normal” market pricing >By setting the rate at which it will purchase commercial paper at a premium to “normal” market pricing
いやまあ色々な市場に対して色々な措置ぶっこんでいるからFEDも大概には大概なのですが、一応バジョット・ルール的なサムシングはあるという訳でしてこの先の方では政策効果の話がありますので途中をまた飛ばして『What has been the impact of the facility?』に入りますと、
『The chart above shows that, for the shortest maturity issuances, the spreads to one-week OIS (overnight indexed swap) on one-week A1/P1 paper started declining immediately once the facility was announced on March 17, with the spread on nonfinancial commercial paper declining from 112 basis points (bps) on March 17 to 5 bps on April 16, and the spread on financial commercial paper declining from 38 bps on March 17 to 0 bps on April 16.』
『The response of spreads on longer maturity commercial paper was more sluggish, with the spreads to three-month OIS on three-month A1/P1 nonfinancial commercial paper only starting to decline on March 25 from 220 bps to 111 bps on April 16. Similarly, the spreads to three-month OIS on three-month A1/P1 financial commercial paper started to decline on March 26 from 242 bps to 103 bps on April 16.』
『While the facility only accepts commercial paper from issuers rated A1/P1 as of the facility announcement date, by stabilizing the A1/P1 market the facility has had a positive impact on market functioning and liquidity for lower-rated issuers as well, as shown in the next chart. As with the A1/P1 market, the shortest maturity spreads reacted immediately, with the spread on nonfinancial commercial paper declining from 311 bps on March 17 to 87 bps on April 16, and the spread on financial commercial paper declining from 123 bps on March 17 to 5 bps on April 16.』
『The reaction of longer maturity spreads has been more sluggish, with a modest 50 bps decline in the spread on nonfinancial three-month paper over the period from March 17 to April 16. 』
『Inspecting the A1/P1 nonfinancial issuers in greater detail, we can examine whether market pricing for issuers in industries more likely to be directly affected by the COVID epidemic-such as airlines, department stores, restaurants, and hotels-has evolved in the same way as for issuers less likely to be directly affected.』
最後にコロナちゃんの直撃を食らっている業界の発行するCPの状況について。
『The next chart shows that, although spreads on one-week paper have declined for both sets of issuers since the facility announcement, the decline in spreads for more directly affected issuers has been more modest. The facility thus achieves its twin goals of supporting overall commercial paper market liquidity while allowing market participants to differentially price issuers with different risk profiles. 』
よって、NY連銀ちゃんは「The facility thus achieves its twin goals of supporting overall commercial paper market liquidity while allowing market participants to differentially price issuers with different risk profiles.」と思いっきり自画自賛しておりますように、「CP発行市場の混乱を修復して市場環境全体を改善させると共に、発行体によるリスクに応じた市場の金利による選別機能は維持されている」と思いっきり仰せになっておりまして、どこぞの極東の島国の中央銀行は爪の垢(以下同文)。
・てな訳で結論だがさっきの部分でイイハナシダナーな結論が出ていましたな
『Supporting Economic Stability』ってのが最後。
『Unlike CPFF usage during the 2007-09 financial crisis, current usage of the CPFF has been relatively limited.』
今般のCPFFの活用はサブプライム危機の時よりもそんなに使われていません、だそうな。
『Nonetheless, the return to normal market prices documented above means that the facility is working-providing a backstop but at terms that encourage issuers to seek public market financing.』
しかし市場の正常化には寄与しております(キリッ)。
『While the initial disruptions to the commercial paper market appear to have subsided, the facility stands ready to help weather any additional disturbances that may emerge until the COVID-related disruptions to the economy are resolved.』
Current Report: May 15, 2020 [外部リンク] Stability Report
『This report summarizes the Federal Reserve Board’s framework for assessing the resilience of the U.S. financial system and presents the Board’s current assessment. By publishing this report, the Board intends to promote public understanding and increase transparency and accountability for the Federal Reserve’s views on this topic.』
『The report summarizes banking conditions and the Federal Reserve’s supervisory and regulatory activities, in conjunction with semiannual testimony before Congress by the Vice Chairman for Supervision.』
ということでリポートちゃんが、
[外部リンク] Reserve Supervision and Regulation Report - May 2020
というのが前書き(Preface)だけの部分で本文はこちら。 [外部リンク] and Regulation Report
議会報告はこちらになります。(13日に実施) [外部リンク] 13, 2020 Supervision and Regulation Vice Chair for Supervision Randal K. Quarles At the Virtual Roundtable Discussion, Committee on Financial Services, Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Financial Institutions, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, D.C.
[外部リンク] 13, 2020 Current Economic Issues Chair Jerome H. Powell At the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C. (via webcast)
カレントエコノミックイッシューズですよ、ということで短いのでもう全文流し読みしますか。
・最初はご挨拶
『The coronavirus has left a devastating human and economic toll in its wake as it has spread around the globe. This is a worldwide public health crisis, and health-care workers have been the first responders, showing courage and determination and earning our lasting gratitude. So have the legions of other essential workers who put themselves at risk every day on our behalf.』
最初は医療関係者やエッセンシャルワーカーへの謝辞みたいなもんから入る。
『As a nation, we have temporarily withdrawn from many kinds of economic and social activity to help slow the spread of the virus. Some sectors of the economy have been effectively closed since mid-March. People have put their lives and livelihoods on hold, making enormous sacrifices to protect not just their own health and that of their loved ones, but also their neighbors and the broader community. While we are all affected, the burden has fallen most heavily on those least able to bear it.』
でもってコロナ拡大防止のために色々な活動を止めているので皆さんも大変ですよとか挨拶は続く。
『The scope and speed of this downturn are without modern precedent, significantly worse than any recession since World War II.』
『We are seeing a severe decline in economic activity and in employment, and already the job gains of the past decade have been erased. Since the pandemic arrived in force just two months ago, more than 20 million people have lost their jobs.』
『A Fed survey being released tomorrow reflects findings similar to many others: Among people who were working in February, almost 40 percent of those in households making less than $40,000 a year had lost a job in March.1』
明日出すサーベイでもまあそんな労働市場とその家計の影響の話が出ますよと。
『This reversal of economic fortune has caused a level of pain that is hard to capture in words, as lives are upended amid great uncertainty about the future.』
『This downturn is different from those that came before it. Earlier in the post- World War II period, recessions were sometimes linked to a cycle of high inflation followed by Fed tightening.2』
『The lower inflation levels of recent decades have brought a series of long expansions, often accompanied by the buildup of imbalances over time-asset prices that reached unsupportable levels, for instance, or important sectors of the economy, such as housing, that boomed unsustainably.』
『The current downturn is unique in that it is attributable to the virus and the steps taken to limit its fallout. This time, high inflation was not a problem. There was no economy-threatening bubble to pop and no unsustainable boom to bust. The virus is the cause, not the usual suspects-something worth keeping in mind as we respond.』
『Today I will briefly discuss the measures taken so far to offset the economic effects of the virus, and the path ahead.』
と、今後どうなるかの話になりまして、
『Governments around the world have responded quickly with measures to support workers who have lost income and businesses that have either closed or seen a sharp drop in activity. The response here in the United States has been particularly swift and forceful.』
政府による労働者救済の話から来ましたがこれは最大雇用と物価安定以下同文。
『To date, Congress has provided roughly $2.9 trillion in fiscal support for households, businesses, health-care providers, and state and local governments-about 14 percent of gross domestic product. While the coronavirus economic shock appears to be the largest on record, the fiscal response has also been the fastest and largest response for any postwar downturn.』
この辺は政府のコロナ予算でどうのこうのの話なので流す。次がFEDの話。
『At the Fed, we have also acted with unprecedented speed and force.』
『After rapidly cutting the federal funds rate to close to zero, we took a wide array of additional measures to facilitate the flow of credit in the economy, which can be grouped into four areas.』
この辺は実施した政策の自慢コーナー。
『First, outright purchases of Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities to restore functionality in these critical markets.』
『Second, liquidity and funding measures, including discount window measures, expanded swap lines with foreign central banks, and several facilities with Treasury backing to support smooth functioning in money markets.』
『Third, with additional backing from the Treasury, facilities to more directly support the flow of credit to households, businesses, and state and local governments.』
『And fourth, temporary regulatory adjustments to encourage and allow banks to expand their balance sheets to support their household and business customers.』
はいはいそうですね。
『The Fed takes actions such as these only in extraordinary circumstances, like those we face today. For example, our authority to extend credit directly to private nonfinancial businesses and state and local governments exists only in "unusual and exigent circumstances" and with the consent of the Secretary of the Treasury. When this crisis is behind us, we will put these emergency tools away.』
と、ここまで来て「この施策はunusual and exigent circumstancesだから実施したものですので危機が去ったら危機対応ツールも引っ込めますよ」とかしらっとぶっこんでいる辺りはまあ一応自制が効いているちゃあ効いている感じはする。危機対応でぶっこんだCP社債買入を次の危機まで引っ張り続けて結局無茶な拡大をしてしまうようなどこぞの中銀はパウエルの垢を煎じて飲んで頂きたい。
・とは言いながらもまた「先行き不透明」を連発するわ暗い未来予想図に言及するわ
でもって次のパラ。
『While the economic response has been both timely and appropriately large, it may not be the final chapter, given that the path ahead is both highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks.』
またも先行き不透明に言及。
『Economic forecasts are uncertain in the best of times, and today the virus raises a new set of questions: How quickly and sustainably will it be brought under control? Can new outbreaks be avoided as social-distancing measures lapse? How long will it take for confidence to return and normal spending to resume? And what will be the scope and timing of new therapies, testing, or a vaccine?』
『The answers to these questions will go a long way toward setting the timing and pace of the economic recovery. Since the answers are currently unknowable, policies will need to be ready to address a range of possible outcomes.』
『The overall policy response to date has provided a measure of relief and stability, and will provide some support to the recovery when it comes. But the coronavirus crisis raises longer-term concerns as well. The record shows that deeper and longer recessions can leave behind lasting damage to the productive capacity of the economy.3』
『Avoidable household and business insolvencies can weigh on growth for years to come. Long stretches of unemployment can damage or end workers' careers as their skills lose value and professional networks dry up, and leave families in greater debt.4 The loss of thousands of small- and medium-sized businesses across the country would destroy the life's work and family legacy of many business and community leaders and limit the strength of the recovery when it comes.』
『These businesses are a principal source of job creation-something we will sorely need as people seek to return to work. A prolonged recession and weak recovery could also discourage business investment and expansion, further limiting the resurgence of jobs as well as the growth of capital stock and the pace of technological advancement. The result could be an extended period of low productivity growth and stagnant incomes.』
『We ought to do what we can to avoid these outcomes, and that may require additional policy measures. At the Fed, we will continue to use our tools to their fullest until the crisis has passed and the economic recovery is well under way.』
という暗い未来を回避するために政策は何でもぶっこみます、とは言ってるものの・・・・・・・・・
『Recall that the Fed has lending powers, not spending powers. A loan from a Fed facility can provide a bridge across temporary interruptions to liquidity, and those loans will help many borrowers get through the current crisis. But the recovery may take some time to gather momentum, and the passage of time can turn liquidity problems into solvency problems.』
『Additional fiscal support could be costly, but worth it if it helps avoid long-term economic damage and leaves us with a stronger recovery. This tradeoff is one for our elected representatives, who wield powers of taxation and spending.』
[外部リンク] Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.』(上記URL先の4月29日FOMC声明文第3パラグラフより)
