[外部リンク] Updated: 06/24/20 Some Thoughts on the Future of the U.S. Economy A speech presented virtually on June 24, 2020, to the Corridor Business Journal Mid-Year Economic Review.
すいません先週水曜の物件ですし手抜き読みですいませんけどアウトラインを。
・最初の所にまとめがあるのだが物凄く経済見通しについては厳しい
『Introduction』の最後にまとめがありましてですね、
『In my remarks today, I will focus on three central messages.』
はい。
『●First, while I hope for a quick rebound in the economy, I expect broad recovery will take some time. Furthermore, the future is more uncertain now than at any other time in my professional career. The outlook depends on so many factors of a virtually unprecedented nature-we really are in uncharted territory.』
早く回復してくれるといいけどさっぱりそこは分からん、となっていまして、これその説明部分は手抜きなのですっ飛ばしますけれども、そこの小見出しも『Broad recovery will take time and the outlook is highly uncertain』ってなっていて長広舌が振るわれていますが、結構なレベルで暗い話を連発していて読んでて割と萎えますわ、いやマジで。
『●Second, the situation demands strong fiscal and monetary policy actions to help support households and businesses through these challenging times. Policy has already done a lot, but more may be necessary. For its part, the Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy through these difficult times.』
『First, in order to address distress in the crucial markets for U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities, we conducted repurchase agreements and purchased large quantities of these securities. These interventions were successful, and we were able to scale back purchases. In June we announced that over the coming months we would purchase these securities at least at the current pace to help foster the effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions.15』
APPですが相変わらずここは「effective transmission」であるという説明。
『Other programs have been designed to more directly support the flow of credit in the economy-for households, for businesses of all sizes, and for state and local governments.16 These include the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF), the Paycheck Protection Program Lending Facility (PPPLF), the Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF), and the Main Street lending programs. Some of these programs provide backstops to key financial markets, which can increase the willingness of private lenders to extend credit. Others deliver more direct participation in loans to small and medium businesses, nonprofits, and state and local governments.』
次に上記の何とかファシリティ達の話をしまして、
『Many of these programs rely on emergency lending powers that require the approval of the Treasury and are available only in very unusual circumstances, such as those we find ourselves in today. We are deploying these lending powers to an unprecedented extent with the financial backing and support from Congress and from the Treasury.』
『Further fiscal policy actions are under consideration. On the Fed’s part, as Chair Powell has emphasized repeatedly, we will continue to use our lending powers “forcefully, proactively, and aggressively until we are confident that we are solidly on the road to recovery.”17 And even after the recovery is well in train, we will use all of our tools to meet our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and symmetric 2 percent inflation.』
『●Third, while the economic impact has been catastrophic for an extraordinarily large number of people and businesses, sadly, the cost has fallen most heavily on some of our most vulnerable populations. No one could have adequately prepared for an event of this magnitude, but some, notably low-wage workers in exposed industries, have felt disproportionate pain.』
こちらが元原稿と思われる物件 [外部リンク] Impact of COVID-19 on the Japanese Economy and the Bank of Japan's Response Remarks at the Virtual Event Co-Hosted by Harvard Law School (HLS) and the Program on International Financial Systems (PIFS)
KURODA Haruhiko Governor of the Bank of Japan June 26, 2020
さっきの三本の柱の部分、『The Bank's Response』の最初になりますな。
『Next, I will talk about the Bank's response. The Bank has enhanced monetary easing since March, implementing three measures as follows.』
「three measures」でして、まあいずれにせよセットになっているからアカンのですが、ちなみに柱と言えば展望レポートでの「2つの柱」というのがあります(前回の展望で見事にすっ飛ばしやがりましたけど)が、こちらの「2つの「柱」に基づく経済・物価情勢の点検」は英文だと「Examining Economic Activity and Prices from Two Perspectives」と「パースペクティブ」になるんですよね〜。英語難しいというか日本語の方が難しいということですわな。
[外部リンク] Pro Q&A: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin "More research, better communication on how to give us confidence that what we’re doing is safe would be a real stimulant to our economy," he said.
『Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin has a seat at the table on the Fed’s interest rate-setting committee, where he provides the view on the ground on the economy in his East Coast region.』
『In an interview with POLITICO, Barkin pointed to positive signs in consumer spending but warned the recovery will only be gradual.』
経済の回復は「will only be gradual」ってのもFEDの方々みなさん同じように言いますな。まあそれを言い出すと緩和長期化→ゴルディロックス相場ヒャッハーといって株がホイホイ上がっているような気がしますがキニシナイ。
『He pointed to high joblessness as the number to watch, as the Fed tries to steer the country back to where it was in February, when the unemployment rate sat at just 3.5 percent.』
ちょwwwwという感じですが、この「the Fed tries to steer the country back to where it was in February」というちょっと待てその水準は多分金融緩和ヒャッハー相場成分が入っていて金融不均衡が結構溜まっていた時期(でもってコロナでその金融不均衡が弾けたのだが結局また緩和して金融不均衡の絶賛育成中としか思えんが)じゃろ、と個人の感想ですとしては思うのですが、この趣旨の話はタカ派ハト派問わず皆さん揃ってそういう話をしている、ということはまあそう言う事だぞという話で、いやー参りますなあとは思う(BISビュー人間ではないがFEDビューは絶対取らない個人の感想です)。
『“The American people really understand that 13 percent unemployment is not in line with our mandate, in a way that’s much more significant than their understanding of our miss on inflation,” he said.』
『“Now, that doesn’t mean you wouldn’t talk about inflation. Inflation is part of our mandate, but … I think for the American people, they want us to understand that employment matters.”』
『This transcript has been edited for length and clarity.』
ということで始まりますが、
質問『Given that there is such uncertainty right now, when you’re assessing what you think is going to happen with the economy, how much of that is anecdotal versus data versus modeling?』
状況についてどのような経済モデルなど使って理解しようとしていますか?って話で、
バーキンさん『I’ve aggregated around myself a whole set of daily and weekly data that I find pretty useful in trying to understand the pace of recovery. … We do have a set of models that we use to forecast the economy. I mean, I’d be lying if I told you that, in this environment, I have a lot of confidence in those models.』
ってことで、
『We did a survey of 1,000 businesses. … It came back about two weeks ago in our districts and asked them questions like, how close are you to normal? When do you see normal? What [does] normal look like today versus what it looked like yesterday? Just to try to size the impact. And I would own the notion that it’s a very imprecise science, this forecasting. There’s a lot of judgment that goes into it. But … I am trying to parse the question of, in the first instance, how fast the economy is going to return toward normal. And in the second instance, what gap will we have when we’re “at normal,” versus the place we were before.』
We did a survey of 1,000 businesses.ってあるのでそ質問者興味を持ちまして、
質問『I am curious what data you’re finding most helpful.』
と来たらバーキンさんの回答が中々興味深いお答えでした。
バーキンさん『So, I’ve been able to get access to credit card spend data and debit card spend data across retailer type, which is very useful.』
と来まして、小売店でのクレジットカードの利用データがvery usefulだそうです。なるほど。
『You saw in early April, those numbers were down overall in the high 20s percent. … And then you can see the week-by-week return, both overall and you have the ability to cut it by state, so you can see states that reopened faster or slower.』
『You can even cut it by income level, so you can see that those at the lower income levels are coming back faster than those at the higher income levels. And those numbers which I said were down in the high 20s, if you look today are down in the mid-single digits.』
『I should add credit card spend obviously skews a little bit wealthier, debit card spend a little bit less wealthy, and so I like to look at both of them. Because if you just looked at how the wealthy were spending, I think you’d miss part of the story.』
『SCOTT HORSLEY. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I know you're loathe to weigh in too heavily on fiscal policy, but given your forecast for elevated unemployment rates, do you think it's important that Congress extend the $600 a week extra unemployment benefits? 』
『CHAIR POWELL. I think we try to keep our comments on fiscal policy at a high level, and I'll -- I'll come to your specific question, but I would just say this, this is the biggest economic shock, in the U.S. and in the world, really, in living memory. We went from the lowest level of employ -- unemployment in 50 years to the highest level in close to 90 years, and we did it in two months, extraordinary.』
今回のコロナショックは経済に過去50年無いような大変な事が起きましたが、
『And appropriately, the response from fiscal authorities has been large, forceful, and very quick by -- by the standards of these things.』
過去の色々なショックと比べて財政のレスポンスは非常に早く力強いものでしたよ今回は。
『Roughly, $3 trillion Congress has authorized, and that's benefiting households, laid-off workers, small, medium, and large businesses, hospitals, state, and local governments, 14 percent of GDP, it is -- it's in a class by itself, in terms of both the size and the speed of it, and it's also pretty innovative.』
家計支援プログラムについて褒めています。
『You know, the -- both the PPP and the unemployment insurance are quite innovative in American contexts, and there were difficulties in implementing it, but that's really a function of -- of their novelty, I think. Those programs -- let me -- by the way, let me add, the Fed, also, we both innovated, and acted proactively, and aggressively, -- proactively and aggressively as well. If you put those together, all of that is making a difference now. You look at the income data, the expanded unemployment insurance and also the stimulus checks have gone a long way to replacing lost income from -- from job loss. I think you're seeing it in the job market data, many are giving the PPP credit on that front, and -- and in keeping small businesses going. So, it's -- so far, it's a good response and it's having -- it's having a big effect. You -- you get to -- the question is, it's big, everyone can see that it's big.』
『Is it going to be big enough? And that -- that is the question, and -- and the question for -- for -- the question that I've been concerned about, really, is this issue of longer run damage to the economy.』
『We're -- we’re -- we're doing a fair job of getting through these first few months -- more than a fair job. The question though, is, that group of people who won't be able to go back to work quickly, what about them? And that could be many millions of people, you know, in parts -- who worked in parts of the economy that will be the slowest to recover. And you know, we want those people back in the labor force, we want them getting jobs, so -- and -- and they're going to need, possibly, probably will need further support.』
『So, I will just say this. It's possible that we will need to do more, and it's possible that Congress will need to do more. In terms of the $600 unemployment insurance, I wouldn't -- I wouldn't try to give Congress advice on the specifics of that. I -- I know they're looking at -- I mean, I -- I know from both talking to people and -- and reading the papers that they're looking at a whole bunch of different possible approaches going forward, and some of those seem kind of promising. So, you know, we're happy to give advice if people ask for it, but -- but probably not -- not publicly. 』
なお、追加財政の額が適切かどうかという質問に関しては、それは私の立場での話じゃないですよと言いながら、しらっと「we're happy to give advice if people ask for it, but -- but probably not -- not publicly.」とかお茶目な。まあこれで言いたかったのは「労働者のスキルを落とさないための政策対応もしないといけませんね」ってのを言いたかったんジャマイカと勝手に想像します。
・経済見通しと財政について
あとは先日引用した辺りの質疑がありまして、他にはこんなのがありました本文23ページ。
『VICTORIA GUIDA. Hi, Victoria Guida with Politico. I just wanted to follow up on a couple of things that are -- have already been asked. First of all, on fiscal policy, you all obviously put out your summary of economic projections today and I'm curious to what extent future fiscal policy is factored in or not factored in to those projections, and -- and how, more or less, fiscal policy might affect those projections?』
『And then my other question is, on -- on Main Street, you've mentioned multiple times that you know, the Fed and Treasury are willing to expand the program further. So, my question is, what's the threshold for those types of changes? Is it just making sure that borrowers that want to borrow through the program are -- are --are able to do that? 』
前半がSEPの見通しにどこまで財政入れているのかという話ですが、
『CHAIR POWELL. In terms of the -- the way we do forecasts is we -- we don't -- the -- we don't tend to incorporate things we're highly uncertain about. So, I think the -- the forecast would not have included substantial, additional -- you know, big additional fiscal support for the economy, maybe -- maybe a modest amount, something that looks like a -- a low end guess on what might come out of the current negotiations, that's basically what would be in the baseline.』
『So, of course, if there were more fiscal support, you'd see -- you'd see better results sooner, but that's a question for Congress. You know, we're -- we're spending a lot and that's really what they get to decide.』
『In terms of Main Street and our willingness to expand it further, I think we're -- one thing we're looking at, very strongly looking at is -- is nonprofits, and is there a way to -- to incorporate them into that facility or a similar facility? So, that's another dimension. Not -- you know, if we had a great idea for changing Main Street, we would have done it, but -- and we -- and we have done some things that I think are really very positive lately here. But if we -- as we learn more, it could be -- it could be in terms of size, it could be in terms of lots of different things. But I -- I think we have a good product to go to market with now and I think it will -- it will get out there soon and you know, we'll see, and -- and we'll be willing to continue to adapt. 』
[外部リンク] Can’t Afford Not To National Press Club Virtual Event Washington, DC By Mary C. Daly, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco For delivery on Monday, June 15, 2020 12:30PM EST
[外部リンク] 15, 2020 Federal Reserve Board announces updates to Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF), which will begin buying a broad and diversified portfolio of corporate bonds to support market liquidity and the availability of credit for large employers For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
何ぞこれということで説明文を見る。
『The Federal Reserve Board on Monday announced updates to the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF), which will begin buying a broad and diversified portfolio of corporate bonds to support market liquidity and the availability of credit for large employers.』
大企業の社債市場について市場流動性とクレジットのアベイラビリティを高めるために、「a broad and diversified portfolio of corporate bonds」も買うんですとよ。
『As detailed in a revised term sheet and updated FAQs, the SMCCF will purchase corporate bonds to create a corporate bond portfolio that is based on a broad, diversified market index of U.S. corporate bonds. This index is made up of all the bonds in the secondary market that have been issued by U.S. companies that satisfy the facility's minimum rating, maximum maturity, and other criteria. This indexing approach will complement the facility's current purchases of exchange-traded funds.』
『The Primary Market and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities were established with the approval of the Treasury Secretary and with $75 billion in equity provided by the Treasury Department from the CARES Act.』
[外部リンク] of Chair Powell’s Press Conference June 10, 2020
昨日の続きでその他の質疑です。今回はやはりFace to Faceじゃないせいなのか質問も回答も長めになってしまっている(おまけにこれ回線多分聞きずらかったんじゃないかという感じがするので、Webよりもテレカンにした方が良いんじゃねえのか今の技術だったら、とは思ったのですが)のと、微妙に話がかみ合っていない感もするのがありますが、続きはこんなのから参りましょう。
『CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Hi, thank you for taking our questions. Well, in the projections, you have -- you didn't change the -- the Fed policymakers didn't change their -- the forecast for long run unemployment, so that suggests that you -- you know, the -- that all of you so far don't see necessarily prospects for long term damage.』
『But still, what kind of data are you looking at here to gauge -- you know, the potential for longer term hits to the economy, even as we have some of these -- even as we have something like the May jobs report that still has at the same time people return from temporary layoff, there could still be permanent job losses? So, what kind of data are you looking at to gauge that potential impact and what is -- what is it telling us so far?』
『CHAIR POWELL. And I think it's -- it's not the risk for the next few months, but it's the risk over time of -- of lasting damage to the -- to these -- to the productive capacity of the United States.』
『Typically, in two forms, one, through extended periods of unemployment, people lose contact with the labor force, they get out of touch with the skills and -- that they need and -- and they have a hard time getting back in, and that drive -- that -- that -- you know, it's very damaging to people's lives and their working lives, and it also just lowers -- in a way -- it can -- it can increase the -- the unemployment rate, but it can also lower the labor force participation rate, which is almost worse, in a way, to have people dropping out of the labor force where we need them in the -- in the labor force working.』
『The other piece of it is just businesses. You know, a shock like this that just comes in, it's like a natural disaster. You wouldn't want a lot of perfectly good businesses, particularly the smaller and medium sized businesses that may not have a lot of resources to sustain them, to -- you know, to go out of business permanently in a situation like that, like this, where really, there was no reason for it.』
『Of course, you know, businesses are going to go in and out -- or they're going to fail all the time, and that's a healthy thing in capitalism, that's something that has to happen, but this is different. This is a [inaudible] potentially, so those are the things we've been worried about.』
『We didn't change -- you -- you're right though, we didn't change our longer run estimate of -- of potential growth or of the unemployment rate and that's -- I would say, in my thinking, the reason I didn't change mine, is that I still -- I -- I think we can avoid that or avoid much of that, most of that even, and -- and we do that with measures that -- that -- you know, keep people in their homes, that -- that support hiring, that support growth, that avoid unnecessary avoidable business insolvencies and that's all the things that we're trying to do.』
『Basically, if you look at what's happened, as I mentioned, there's something -- somewhere short of 25 million people have been displaced, even after the good May employment report. What we're trying to do is create an environment in which they have the best chance to either to go back to their old job or to get a new job, that's -- that's kind of the most important part of this exercise. And maybe these -- it's probably hopeful, at this point, to say that -- that we won't have a longer run damage to the economy and these numbers won't change. So -- but I think it's way too early to be -- to be changing the longer runs. So, these are -- these are not meant to be short run numbers, they're called -- they're longer run assessments, so I -- I would -- I have not changed mine, and I'm hopeful that -- that I won't have to change it.』
『HEATHER LONG. Hi, good afternoon, Chair Powell. I'm struggling with two things that I'm hoping you can provide some clarity on.』
ほう。
『The first is the ongoing bond buying program. You say that it's needed to continue the smooth functioning of markets, but I guess most of us aren't really seeing instability in markets right now. So, if you could kind of give us some clarity of what you're seeing that needs to continue to be smooth at that level and that pace.』
『Second is, you know, you were just talking about Fed concerns about small and medium-size companies going out of business during this. And I guess, you know, the Main Street Lending Program still isn't running yet, when do you expect loans to start happening? And do you think that the two-month delay has -- has hurt the chances of some companies surviving?』
The Main Street lender portal is now open for lender registration. Lenders can begin making Main Street loans immediately - given the program’s intent to purchase 95% of each eligible loan submitted, as long as documentation is complete and the transactions are consistent with program requirements, found in published term sheets. Federal Reserve purchases of loan participations will commence when full program operations open. Subscribe for updates on the latest information related to the Main Street Lending Program.』(この部分だけ直上のボストン連銀ウェブサイトの上記URL先より引用)
だそうですな。さてパウエルさんの回答(相変わらず長い)。
『CHAIR POWELL. There have been gains in market function, although not fully back to where you would say they were, for example, in -- in February, before the pandemic arrived. We don't take those gains for granted though. This is a -- this is a highly fluid situation and we're -- we're not taking those for granted. And in addition, as I pointed out in my -- in my statement, those purchases are clearly also supporting highly accommodative -- or accommodative financial conditions, and that's -- that's a good thing, so that's why we're doing that.』
『Turning quickly to Main Street. So, I would say that the thing -- what we've done on Main Street, I think to a greater degree, is we've listened to feedback. So, we've been out repeatedly for feedback in trying to create a -- a much more difficult product than really the other facilities. And I think this -- this last set of changes we made have actually been very positive for the facility. I think it's going to be better able to achieve its goals, and -- you know, so we've used the time well, I think. And that -- we are now in the -- in the -- in the final run up to starting the facility.』
何か最終ローンチまでに色々と詰めることがあるみたいですな。
『What we did, as you saw earlier, I guess it's early this week or late -- whenever we did it, in the last few days, was we lowered the minimum loan size and we increased the maximum loan size. But I think even more importantly, we lengthened the maturity and we stretched out the repayment schedule significantly. So, borrowers will get a -- a two year delay until they have to make any principal payments -- repayments and a one year delay on interest. So, we had been hearing from both borrowers and lenders that these would be very helpful. We made the changes, we're putting them through the facility.』
『The next step will be to register lenders. At that time, loans can begin to be made. Shortly after that, the facility, itself, will be up, and those facilities can be -- those loans can be sold -- 95 percent of the loans, and it's 95 percent across the board now in the Main Street facility, can be sold. So, all of that should happen quickly now. And I do think this has -- this has been a challenging project, but I think we've come to a -- to a better place.』
『And by the way, we're -- we're going to be prepared to adapt further, if we need to, and -- and that's true of all of our facilities. These are unique, there's no -- there's no playbook here. You -- you have to draw this up and then try it out. And we -- we've been, you know, very willing to adapt and will continue to be.』
[外部リンク] Release June 12, 2020 Federal Reserve Board releases a report, Fed Listens: Perspectives from the Public, summarizing the 15 Fed Listens events held by the Board and the Federal Reserve Banks since the beginning of 2019
と言いながら [外部リンク] Listens: Perspectives from the Public (PDF)
などと140枚組の物件が出ているがまだ読めていない。
〇パウエル会見のQ&A
[外部リンク] of Chair Powell’s Press Conference June 10, 2020
『NICK TIMIRAOS. Yes. Hi. Thanks, Chair Powell. Nick Timiraos at the Wall Street Journal. I want to ask about the economic projections, and I realize these are more of an educated guess at this point, but they suggest the Committee sees quite a large output gap over the next two years. And yet, the Committee did not take any steps, to date, to -- to reinforce your forward guidance.』
『And so, my questions are first, what are you hoping to learn by waiting? Second, how might that change your response? And third, how close is the Committee to reaching a decision on a -- a more concrete forward guidance and whether yield caps might reinforce that guidance?』
『CHAIR POWELL. So, first, I would say that we think that monetary policy today is currently well positioned to support the economy in this challenging time. If we didn't think that, of course, we would change our policy now.』
『As you know, we -- we lowered our policy rate very quickly, quickly than others, to the effective lower bound. And we said that we'll keep it there until the economy has weathered the effects of the virus and is on track to achieve our goals.』
『You can see that in -- in the dot plot, as I think you pointed out, that overwhelmingly, FOMC participants expect, as their baseline expectation, no rate increase at least through 2022. And if you look at surveys of more -- forecasters and market participants, financial market prices, etcetera, those also appropriately reflect a long spell with rates at the effective lower bound.』
『Secondly, we've also taken strong measures to support the flow of credit in the economy, as I mentioned.』
『And third, we're continuing asset prices in coming months at -- at a -- at a relatively high level.』
クレジットフローの為のサポートというのは良いんだが、しらっと「we're continuing asset prices in coming months at -- at a -- at a relatively high level」などとこの正直者!という説明をしているので後でツッコミを食らう。
『So, for all those reasons, we feel like policy is now in a good place. So, as we look ahead, we see the path for the -- ahead for the economy is highly uncertain and continues to depend to a really significant degree on the path of the pandemic. So, at this meeting, what we did was, as I mentioned, we -- we looked, in some depth, at forward guidance and asset purchases, and looked carefully at those. We also received a briefing on the historical experience with yield curve control.』
ほうほうYCCの過去の経験に関するブリーフィングをしたとな。
『And we'll continue those discussions in upcoming meetings and evaluate our stance and communications, as more in portion -- more -- more information about the trajectory of the economy becomes available.』
『I -- I would just say, in terms of -- of what we're looking for, we -- we expect to get a better understanding of the economy's trajectory. And particularly, how we should best deploy those tools to achieve those goals. So, that's really what we're looking to achieve and as you can see, we're -- we're actively at work on that. We're - we're actively at work on that. 』
『JEANNA SMIALEK. Hi, Chair Powell. Thank you so much for taking our question. I’m -- I'm curious about your inflation forecast, which are -- are pretty low across the forecast horizon. I guess just, given how low you see inflation being over the coming years, why is policy appropriate now and why not just kind of throw everything you can and everything and the kitchen sink at it currently? And if -- if you could just talk a little bit about what urgency you see in returning it back to that 2 percent target? 』
『CHAIR POWELL. Our current policy stance is appropriate. And remember, we're using - we're using our -- our emergency 13(3) lending tools to an unprecedented extent.』
『We have asset purchases and we've now said that we won't go any lower than this, and -- but that we're prepared to adjust, as appropriate, and rates are at the effective lower bound. So, we have all of our tools in -- in use in a strong way.』
色々なツールを思いっきりぶっこんだわ既に、だそうで、
『And so, what we're -- what we're waiting for is to -- is to learn more. I -- I think, actually, if you look at the May employment report, it's a pretty good -- probably the biggest data surprise that anybody can remember. It's a pretty good illustration of just how uncertain these times are. The economy is reopening, we're going to learn a whole lot about the -- the path of the economy in the next incoming months, so that's really what we're -- what we're looking for.』
『In terms of inflation, you'll know that we -- we had a 128-month expansion and we never did quite get inflation back to 2 percent on a symmetric, sustained basis. We got close for the last couple of years, but we never did quite get there.』
『So, I think we have to be humble about our ability to move inflation up, and particularly when unemployment is -- is going to be above most estimates of the natural rate for -- certainly above the median in our -- in our -- in our SEP, well through the end of -- past the end of 2022.』
>we have to be humble about our ability to move inflation up >we have to be humble about our ability to move inflation up >we have to be humble about our ability to move inflation up
『So, I do -- I think we're in the right place now, we -- we are looking carefully at what the -- as we learn more and -- and better understand the -- the path of the economy, we will be assessing, what's the best way to deploy all of our tools to achieve our goals in the best possible way.』
えーっとですね、まあメディア的にはこの中では「deploy all of our tools to achieve our goals」ってのがヘッドラインになりがちだと思いますし、それだけ切り取れば追加緩和に積極的って事になるんですが、さっきの質問及びこの質問の答え(まだ終わってないけど)を読みますと、この「必要ならば可能なすべての政策手段を用いて我々のゴールを達成させていく」という部分ですけれども、まあ前後の文脈と質疑の感じを見れば、現時点では追加緩和は不要と思っているでしょ、と考えてしまうんですがどうでしょうかねえ。
『And I'll -- I'll just say again that we are -- the -- the May employment report, of course, was a -- was a welcome surprise, very pleased. We hope we get many more like it, but I think we have to be honest, it's a -- it's a long road, it's - it's -- depending on how you count it, well more than 20 million people displaced in the labor market, it's going to take some time, and we are going to be deploying our tools -- all of our tools to their full extent in pursuit of that -- of those goals, however long it takes.』
『NANCY MARSHALL-GENZER. [INAUDIBLE] Chair Powell, I’m wondering, I want to go back to the issue of inequality, and I’m wondering what more could the Fed do [INAUDIBLE]. I mean, I know that you said you don't target certain groups, but is there a way that you could use, for example, the black unemployment rate as -- as some kind of a benchmark to something you want to meet or something that you keep track of?』
『CHAIR POWELL. We do track all unemployment by all kinds, as you know, all kinds of different demographics, including particularly the African-American unemployment rate, which reached an all time low since the data started being kept in the modern era. Of course, it's still close to twice the white unemployment -- it is twice the unemployment rate, or it was back then, it's certainly much higher now.』
何か話を誤魔化しにかかっているのは把握した。
『You know, the -- the best thing we can do with our monetary policy tools is to -- is to look at -- you know, the evidence of what we saw -- that we saw with our own eyes so recently, which is that the economy can have very low unemployment, very low unemployment, it could have been lower than we were, it could be lower than 3 1/2 percent without seeing financial imbalances, without seeing inflation go -- getting out of control.』
『We, frankly, didn't even get inflation back up to target, without seeing wages getting out of touch with -- with where they should be, so that's the -- that's the biggest thing we can do. 』
この辺は何かコロナ前の話になっとる、どういう前振りなんだか。
『You know, in -- in -- inequality is something that's been with us increasingly for more than four decades and it's -- it's not really related to monetary policy, it's -- or -- or -- it's more related to -- there are a lot of theories on -- on what causes it, but it's been something that's more or less been going up consistently for more than four decades and there are a lot of different theories, one of which is that just is that globalization -- globalization and technology call for rising levels of skills and aptitudes and education, and the U.S. educational attainment kind of flattened out, certainly relative to our peers, flattened out over that period.』
『And so a lot -- so that means, if you're -- if you're on the right side of those trends, then those things are good for you. If you're not, then your wages are going to stagnate and wages for the bottom -- you know, 10 percent, really haven't gone up in real terms in a very long time, and over a long period time, whereas the wages for the people at the top compensation, any way you cut it, before taxes, after taxes, after transfers, all of those, any way you cut it, wages have -- compensation has gone up a whole lot for people at the top, and it really hasn't gone up for people at the bottom. If you look more in the middle, then it's -- then -- then it has gone up for most other groups. But at the bottom, not so much in real terms, inflation adjusted terms.』
『So, you know, we -- we call it out as an -- as an important factor in the economy, and we will use our tools to support maximum employment and take that -- you know, definition to heart. But obviously, that's something that's going to require -- and all of society, all of government response.』
『MICHAEL MCKEE. Mr. Chairman, Michael McKee with Bloomberg Television and Radio. I came across a statistic the other day that amazed me. Since your March 23rd emergency announcement, every single stock in the S and P 500 has delivered positive returns. I'm wondering, given the levels of the market right now, whether you or your colleagues feel there is a possible bubble blowing that could pop and setback the recovery significantly, or that we might see capital misallocation that will leave us worse off when this is over?』
『Second, inequality is not just about wages, it's also about wealth, and a number of studies have suggested that by keeping rates low for so long and targeting the markets after the great financial crisis, that the Fed did contribute to wealth inequality in this country. And I'm wondering if you think there is some tweak or some message you could give that would affect that? 』
『CHAIR POWELL. What we've targeted is broader financial conditions. If you go back to the end of February and early March, you had basically the world markets realized at just about the same time, I remember that Monday, that there was going to be a global pandemic and that this possibility that it would be contained in one province in China, for all practical purposes, was not going to happen. It all -- it was -- you know, it was Iran, Italy, Korea, and then it became clear in markets.』
『From that point forward investors everywhere in the world for a period of weeks wanted to sell everything that wasn't cash or a -- a short term treasury instrument. They didn't want to have any risk at all. 』
この辺「市場機能」の話を延々としています。ちなみにこの間に市場で起きた現象を「sell everything that wasn't cash or a -- a short term treasury instrument」って言ってるし、まあ皆さんそう言ってるのですが、別に金融不安も無いのにキャッシュ化というのも変な話で、そうじゃなくて過剰に詰みあがっていた一種のレバレッジ(レラティブトレードとかVIXみたいなものも一種のレバレッジでしょ)がロスカット食らったということじゃないのかね、と今だに思うのですがその話はまたどこかで。
『And so, what happened is markets stopped working. They stopped working and companies couldn't -- couldn't borrow, they couldn't roll over their debt. People couldn't borrow. So, that's -- that's the kind of situation that can be fair -- financial turbulence and malfunction. A financial system that's not working can greatly amplify the negative effects of what was clearly going to be a major economic shock. So, what our tools were -- were put to work to do was to restore the markets to function. And I think, you know, some of that has really happened, as I -- as I mentioned in my opening remarks, and that's a good thing. 』
要するに市場があばばばばーになったから機能回復させたのですよ、という主張。
『So, we -- we're not looking to achieve a particular level of any asset price. What we want is investors to be pricing in risk, like markets are supposed to do. Borrowers are borrowing, lenders are lending. We want the markets to be working. And again, we're not looking to -- to a particular level.』
『I think our -- our principal focus though is on the -- on the state of the economy and on the labor market and on inflation. Now inflation, of course, is -- is low, and we think it's very likely to remain low for some time below our target. So, really, it's about getting the labor market back and getting it in shape, that's -- that's been our major focus.』
『And I would say -- you know, we -- if we were to hold back because -- we would never do this, but the idea that, just the concept that we would hold back because we think asset prices are too high, others may not think so, but we just decided that that's the case, what would happen to those people? You know, what would happen to the people that we're actually, legally supposed to be serving? We're supposed to be pursuing maximum employment and stable prices, and that's what we're pursuing. We're also pursuing financial stability, but there you have a banking system that is so much better capitalized, so much stronger, better aware of its risks, better at managing its risks, more highly liquid. You have all of those things and they've been lending, they've been taking in deposits, they've been a source of strength in this situation. So, I would say that we're tightly focused on our real economy goals. And -- and again, not -- we're not -- we're not focused on moving asset prices in a particular direction at all. It's just, we want markets to be working and I think partly as a result of what we've done, they are working and -- you know, we hope that continues.』
[外部リンク] of Chair Powell’s Press Conference June 10, 2020
動画でみると全体が58分6秒。オープニングリマークは最初から10分41秒くらいまでです。
・最初はただの挨拶
『CHAIR POWELL. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Our country continues to face a difficult and challenging time, as the pandemic is causing tremendous hardship here in the United States and around the world. People have lost loved ones. Many millions have lost their jobs. There is great uncertainty about the future. At the Federal Reserve, we are strongly committed to using our tools to do whatever we can, and for as long as it takes, to provide some relief and stability, to ensure that the recovery will be as strong as possible, and to limit lasting damage to the economy.』
このご挨拶の最後のところに「we are strongly committed to using our tools to do whatever we can,」ってありますが、これってもう最近必ず出てくる表現でして、ECBとかでも同じような表現が出てくるのですが、メディアの方がネタが無いのか何だか知らんですけれども、この手の「ご挨拶」文言を捕まえて一々ヘッドラインにしたがる(代表格はブルームバーグ)のですが、ECBにしろFEDにしろ、この「あらゆる措置を取る」ってのは、今や「コロナは大変ですねえ」位の話なんじゃネーノとは思うのですが、メディアは政策に何かチェンジが無いと商売にならんという意識が強いようで、どうもこの手のご挨拶文言に過剰反応するんじゃネーノ、というのは最近とみに思う(個人の感想です)。
『The most important response to this crisis has come from our health care workers. And on behalf of the Federal Reserve, let me express our sincere gratitude to those dedicated individuals who put themselves at risk, day after day, in service to others and to our nation. Let me also thank the many other essential workers across the country who have helped meet our basic needs for goods and services in these difficult times. 』
こちらは感染症の最前線で働いている人への謝辞。
・デュアルマンデートですがハードデータがアカン時には基本この人たち雇用の話をフォーカスする訳で
ということでご挨拶タイムが終了しまして始まるのが雇用の話。
『The virus and the forceful measures taken to control its spread have induced a sharp decline in economic activity and a surge in job losses.』
『Indicators of spending and production plummeted in April, and the decline in real GDP in the current quarter is likely to be the most severe on record.』
消費や生産が最大にシビアなあばばばばーですよと。
『Even after the unexpectedly positive May employment report, nearly 20 million jobs have been lost on net since February, and the unemployment rate has risen about 10 percentage points, to 13.3 percent.』
『As was highlighted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this figure likely understates the extent of unemployment; accounting for the unusually large number of workers who reported themselves as employed but absent from their jobs would raise the unemployment rate by about 3 percentage points.』
『The downturn has not fallen equally on all Americans, and those least able to shoulder the burden have been the most affected. In particular, the rise in joblessness has been especially severe for lower-wage workers, for women, and for African Americans and Hispanics.』
『In recent weeks, some indicators suggest a stabilization or even a modest rebound in some segments of the economy, such as retail merchandise and motor vehicle sales. Employment rose in many sectors of the economy in May, and the unemployment edged down as some workers returned to their jobs from temporary layoffs.』
キタコレですが、
『With the easing of social distancing restrictions across the country, people are increasingly moving about, and many businesses are resuming operations to varying degrees.』
当然ながら背景はロックアウトの段階的解除。
『At the same time, many households have been receiving stimulus payments and unemployment benefits, which are supporting incomes and spending.』
『Activity in many parts of the economy has yet to pick up, however, and overall output is far below earlier levels. Moreover, despite the improvements seen in the May jobs report, unemployment remains historically high.』
『Weak demand, especially in sectors most affected by the pandemic, is holding down consumer prices. As a result, inflation has fallen well below our symmetric 2 percent objective. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations have been fairly steady. 』
『The extent of the downturn and the pace of recovery remain extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on our success in containing the virus.』
そらそれ以外に言いようがないわな。
『We all want to get back to normal, but a full recovery is unlikely to occur until people are confident that it is safe to reengage in a broad range of activities.』
経済活動のフルリカバリーはコロナ感染症がただのインフルレベルになるまでは無理ですわな。
『The severity of the downturn will also depend on the policy actions taken at all levels of government to provide relief and to support the recovery when the public health crisis passes.』
『The Fed’s response is guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people, along with our responsibilities to promote the stability of the financial system. We are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy in this challenging time.』
またありましたな「using our full range of tools」。
『In March, we quickly lowered our policy interest rate to near zero, where we expect to keep it until we are confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals.』
『We have also been taking broad and forceful actions to support the flow of credit in the economy. Without access to credit, families could be forced to cut back on necessities or even lose their homes. Businesses could be forced to downsize or close, resulting in further losses of jobs and incomes and worsening the downturn. Preserving the flow of credit is thus essential for mitigating the damage to the economy and setting the stage for the recovery.』
ゼロ金利政策(IOERが10bpですけど)とクレジット支援策をしましたよ、というアピール。
・国債、MBS買入の目的は「市場機能」であるという説明
『Since March, we have been purchasing sizable quantities of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities in order to support the smooth functioning of these markets, which are vital to the flow of credit in the economy.』
声明文の方であって、何度もこの説明が行われていますが、米国国債やエージェンシーMBSなどのAPPは「in order to support the smooth functioning of these markets」であって、それは何のためにやっているかというと、そのスムーズファンクショニングが「vital to the flow of credit in the economy」という説明になっています。つまりマネタリーベースを増やすことによってどうのこうのとか、インフレ期待を引き上げるためにどうのこうのとか、そういう理屈を使っていない訳でして、理屈的な整理では実質的にはクレジットイージングをしていたQE1の理屈になっていますということです。リーマン後を思い出せば、このQE1がQE2になった時にはインフレ期待の低下を止める、という理屈がありましたがさて今後どうなるんでしょうかね。
『Our ongoing purchases have helped to restore orderly market conditions, and have fostered more accommodative financial conditions. As market functioning has improved since the strains experienced in March, we have gradually reduced the pace of these purchases.』
『To sustain smooth market functioning and thereby foster the effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions, we will increase our holdings of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities over coming months at least at the current pace. We will closely monitor developments and are prepared to adjust our plans as appropriate to support our goals.』
でもってこの買入なんですけれども、向こう数カ月の間は現状の拡大ペースを維持します。とこちらは声明文にもありまして、まあ拡大ペースが維持されますねってことではありますが、「We will closely monitor developments and are prepared to adjust our plans as appropriate」ってんですから必要に応じて上げ下げあるで、という話ですな。
・クレジットお助け策はバックストップという扱いですな
『The Federal Reserve is also undertaking programs to provide stability to the financial system and to more directly support the flow of credit in the economy-for households, for businesses of all sizes, and for state and local governments.』
今度はそっちの政策の話。
『These programs benefit the economy by providing financing where it is not otherwise available. In addition, by serving as a backstop to key credit markets, the programs can increase the willingness of private lenders to extend credit.』
バックストップとして機能することによって貸出者のクレジット拡大意欲を促進する、という建付け。
『Many of these programs rely on emergency lending powers that are available only in very unusual circumstances, such as those we find ourselves in today. We are deploying these lending powers to an unprecedented extent, enabled in large part by financial backing and support from Congress and from the Treasury.』
貸出パワーの源は財務省様からのエクイティ部分ですよ、って話をしながら、
『We will continue to use these powers forcefully, proactively, and aggressively until we are confident that we are solidly on the road to recovery.』
状況が落ち着いて回復が確実になるまで「forcefully, proactively, and aggressively」にこのパワーを使います、と威勢の良いことを言っているのですが、まあ実際は予算様が出てくれないと出しようもなくて、逆に言えばこの施策って予算がつく即ち議会の承認を受けているということで、他のFEDのアクションと違って議会で吊るし上げ食らう事も無いし、事実上は議会が判断する話なので、何ぼでも威勢の良い空手形を出せますなあ、などと斜に構えてこの部分を解釈してしまうのがアタクシのクオリティ(アカン)。
『When the time comes, after the crisis has passed, we will put these emergency tools back in the toolbox. 』
『I would stress that these are lending powers, not spending powers.』
最初からこの説明も一貫しています。
『The Fed cannot grant money to particular beneficiaries. We can only create programs or facilities with broad-based eligibility to make loans to solvent entities with the expectation that the loans will be repaid.』
「make loans to solvent entities with the expectation that the loans will be repaid」なのであって、ノリで3倍とか社債買入を拡大する(以下割愛)。
『Many borrowers will benefit from these programs, as will the overall economy. But for many others, getting a loan that may be difficult to repay may not be the answer. In these cases, direct fiscal support may be needed. Elected officials have the power to tax and spend and to make decisions about where we, as a society, should direct our collective resources. The CARES Act and other legislation provide direct help to people, and businesses, and communities. This direct support can make a critical difference, not just in helping families and businesses in a time of need, but also in limiting long-lasting damage to our economy.』
『At this meeting, my colleagues and I continued our discussion of approaches for conducting monetary policy when the federal funds rate is at its lower bound. The measures we discussed included explicit forms of forward guidance and asset purchases; we used these tools in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, and they have become a standard part of our toolkit.』
てのはまあ良いとしまして、
『We also reviewed the historical and foreign experience with targeting interest rates along the yield curve.』
YCCについての海外での事例のレビューキタコレ!!!!
『Whether such an approach would usefully complement our main tools remains an open question.』
政策に関してはまだ使えるのかどうかは検討課題のままですよと。
『We will continue our discussions in upcoming meetings and will evaluate our monetary policy stance and communications as more information about the trajectory of the economy becomes available.』
『We also resumed our regular quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, or the SEP. The SEP is an input into our deliberations, not an outcome, and it does not represent a Committee view. Rather, FOMC participants write down their individual views of the most likely path for the economy, conditional on each participant’s view of appropriate monetary policy. We tabulate those submissions and we publish them as the SEP. 』
SEPって何じゃろというただの説明。
『Given the unusually high level of uncertainty about the outlook, many participants noted that they see a number of reasonably likely paths for the economy, and that it is not possible to identify with confidence a single path as the “most likely” one.』
『Nonetheless, we believe that regular publication of the SEP provides a useful perspective on the way FOMC participants are assessing the path ahead. What the June SEP shows is a general expectation of an economic recovery beginning in the second half of this year and lasting over the next couple of years, supported by interest rates that remain at their current level near zero.』
『Of course, my colleagues and I will continue to base our policy decisions on the full range of plausible outcomes, and not on a particular forecast. This riskmanagement approach is the best way we can promote our maximum employment and price stability goals in these unusually uncertain circumstances. 』
『Finally, I want to acknowledge the tragic events that have again put a spotlight on the pain of racial injustice in this country. The Federal Reserve serves the entire nation. We operate in, and are part of, many of the communities across the country where Americans are grappling with and expressing themselves on issues of racial equality. I speak for my colleagues throughout the Federal Reserve System when I say there is no place at the Federal Reserve for racism and there should be no place for it in our society. Everyone deserves the opportunity to participate fully in our society and in our economy.』
『These principles guide us in all we do, from monetary policy, to our focus on diversity and inclusion in our workplace, and to our work to ensure fair access to credit across the country. We will take this opportunity to renew our steadfast commitment to these principles. We understand that the work of the Fed touches communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy and to help assure that the recovery from this difficult period will be as robust as possible.』
[外部リンク] Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.』(今回)
『The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.』(前回)
『The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The virus and the measures taken to protect public health have induced sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation.』(今回)
『The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. The virus and the measures taken to protect public health are inducing sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation.』(前回)
『Financial conditions have improved, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.』(今回)
『The disruptions to economic activity here and abroad have significantly affected financial conditions and have impaired the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.』(前回)
『The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.』(今回)
『The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term. In light of these developments, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.』(前回)
全文一致です。金利に関するガイダンス文言は(まあこれは拘束力のあるようなガイダンスじゃないからガイダンスというのもアレですが)「The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals.」のままです。
まあ何ですな、本来はこの文言って「it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track」って所が定性的かつジャッジメンタルな表現な上に、そもそも論として最初が「The Committee expects to maintain」であって、別にコミットするとは言ってないのですけれども、まあこういうユルユルの定性的な説明であっても、これまでの緩和実績があるので、これでも十分にガイダンスとして効いてくるわけですな。
『The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.』(今回)
『The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy. In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the stance of monetary policy, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.』(前回)
『To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions.』(今回)
『To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, the Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions.』(前回)
てな訳でして、この辺の買入は引き続き「市場機能維持のため」の買入となっていて、つまりはこれ定義的にはQEじゃないから、市場機能維持に必要な程度しか買わんよという理屈も成り立つんですが、今回はこ奴らの買入について「at least at the current pace」と今回新たに文言を入れておりまして、先般来ペースを落とした買入はこれ以上ペース落とさんよ、と示して安心感、というのもあるでしょうし、あとはこの部分に関しては臨戦態勢解除となって、普通の金融政策で普通に経済サポートする、という時にQEとして使える余地を残しておく、というのは当然ながらあろうかと思います。まあ臨戦態勢解除になっている状況だったら現時点で吹かし過ぎになっている気もしますけどね。
『In addition, the Open Market Desk will continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will closely monitor developments and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.』(今回)
『In addition, the Open Market Desk will continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations. The Committee will closely monitor market conditions and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.』(前回)
短期金融市場に関しては、「closely monitor developments and is prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.」とありますが、先般のFOMC議事要旨の中でも、ディスカウントウィンドウ(というかプライマリークレジット)の金利を引き上げてコリドアの幅を広げた方がエエンチャウノという意見が一部にありましたように、こちらに関して言えば、現状オペと常設ファシリティでガチガチにしちゃっているのですが、市場環境が改善してファンディング市場が正常化してくれば、ガチガチの措置については緩和していって、市場にその機能をゆだねる方向性を示している、と思いますし、まあこれは健全なスタンスだと思います。
・第6パラグラフ:全員賛成ですかそうですか
『Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.』(今回)
『Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.』(前回)
〇NY連銀へのディレクティブ等をちょっとだけ確認
PDF版だと声明文の次にそのまま記載されていますが、HTML版だと声明文の後にリンクがあります。
[外部リンク] Note issued June 10, 2020 Decisions Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation June 10, 2020
『The Federal Reserve has made the following decisions to implement the monetary policy stance announced by the Federal Open Market Committee in its statement on June 10, 2020:
・The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances at 0.10 percent, effective June 11, 2020.』(今回)
IOERは前回も0.10%ですので変更なし。
『・As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to authorize and direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive:』(今回)
ということで以下ディレクティブですが、変更点だけ引用しますと、2ポツ目に、
『〇Increase the System Open Market Account holdings of Treasury securities, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and agency commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) at least at the current pace to sustain smooth functioning of markets for these securities, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions.』(今回)
『〇Increase the System Open Market Account holdings of Treasury securities, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and agency commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) in the amounts needed to support the smooth functioning of markets for these securities.』(前回)
となっておりまして、国債、エージェンシーMBSおよびエージェンシーCMBSの買入については「at least at the current pace」で行い、これらの市場機能が円滑に作用するようにしましょう、って部分は同じですが、そのケツに「fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions.」ってのが入っておりますな。ちょっと気になったが意味合いを深く悩むにはちょっとディレクティブ文学の読み込みが足りないので判断保留。
あと、今回しらっとこの項目が入っていまして、
『〇Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for purchases and reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons.』
[外部リンク] 10, 2020 Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the June 9-10 FOMC meeting For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT
『The attached table and charts released on Wednesday summarize the economic projections and the target federal funds rate projections made by Federal Open Market Committee participants for the June 9-10 meeting.』
『The table will be incorporated into a summary of economic projections released with the minutes of the June 9-10 meeting. Summaries of economic projections are released quarterly.』
ということで見る訳ですが・・・・・・・・
SEPのサマリー(本チャンは実は長いのよ、議事要旨と同時公表) [外部リンク] in real GDP -6.5 5.0 3.5 1.8 December projection 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9
