[外部リンク] 27, 2020 New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review Chair Jerome H. Powell At "Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy," an economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming (via webcast)
でもって今回は思いっきりそのロンガーランゴールの話に終始していまして、最初の小見出しが『Evolution of the Fed's Monetary Policy Framework』ということで、ボルカーの時代からの話を簡単に行っていまして、これはこれで歴史確認としてはイケルのですけど、今回の現世利益的にはまあパスして良いと思います。その次の小見出しから。
・潜在成長率の低下、フィリップスカーブのフラット化、上がりにくい物価がレビューを行う動機だよ
『Motivation for the Review』ってことでこの時点で生きている(ちなみにクッソどうでも良いですが、FEDのサイトに新しいロンガーラン云々とこの講演テキストがアップされる前にこの部分は喋っていた筈)ロンガーランゴールが2012年謹製の物ですが今回はそれを見直しましたって話でして、じゃあ何でレビューしたかというそもそも論がこちらにある。と書けば大体内容はお察しの通り。
『The completion of the original consensus statement in January 2012 occurred early on in the recovery from the Global Financial Crisis, when notions of what the "new normal" might bring were quite uncertain. Since then, our understanding of the economy has evolved in ways that are central to monetary policy. Of course, the conduct of monetary policy has also evolved. A key purpose of our review has been to take stock of the lessons learned over this period and identify any further changes in our monetary policy framework that could enhance our ability to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability objectives in the years ahead.9』
『Our evolving understanding of four key economic developments motivated our review.』
4つのカギとなる経済の変化と来ましたが、まあお察しの内容です。
『First, assessments of the potential, or longer-run, growth rate of the economy have declined. For example, since January 2012, the median estimate of potential growth from FOMC participants has fallen from 2.5 percent to 1.8 percent (see figure 1). Some slowing in growth relative to earlier decades was to be expected, reflecting slowing population growth and the aging of the population. More troubling has been the decline in productivity growth, which is the primary driver of improving living standards over time.10』
『Second, the general level of interest rates has fallen both here in the United States and around the world. Estimates of the neutral federal funds rate, which is the rate consistent with the economy operating at full strength and with stable inflation, have fallen substantially, in large part reflecting a fall in the equilibrium real interest rate, or "r-star." This rate is not affected by monetary policy but instead is driven by fundamental factors in the economy, including demographics and productivity growth-the same factors that drive potential economic growth.11 The median estimate from FOMC participants of the neutral federal funds rate has fallen by nearly half since early 2012, from 4.25 percent to 2.5 percent (see figure 2).』
『This decline in assessments of the neutral federal funds rate has profound implications for monetary policy. With interest rates generally running closer to their effective lower bound even in good times, the Fed has less scope to support the economy during an economic downturn by simply cutting the federal funds rate.12 The result can be worse economic outcomes in terms of both employment and price stability, with the costs of such outcomes likely falling hardest on those least able to bear them.』
『Third, and on a happier note, the record-long expansion that ended earlier this year led to the best labor market we had seen in some time. The unemployment rate hovered near 50-year lows for roughly 2 years, well below most estimates of its sustainable level. And the unemployment rate captures only part of the story. Having declined significantly in the five years following the crisis, the labor force participation rate flattened out and began rising even though the aging of the population suggested that it should keep falling.13 For individuals in their prime working years, the participation rate fully retraced its post-crisis decline, defying earlier assessments that the Global Financial Crisis might cause permanent structural damage to the labor market.』
3番目がon a happier noteと来まして、昨年まで続いた過去最長の景気拡大期間において、労働市場は歴史的に見ても最高の状況となりました。というのは失業率が盛大に下がりましたり、コア労働力世代における労働参加率を見るとリーマンショック前の水準を完全に回復していた、ということでして、リーマンショックが労働市場の構造を変えるほどのダメージを与えずに済んだということじゃなとのこと。
『Moreover, as the long expansion continued, the gains began to be shared more widely across society. The Black and Hispanic unemployment rates reached record lows, and the differentials between these rates and the white unemployment rate narrowed to their lowest levels on record.14 As we heard repeatedly in our Fed Listens events, the robust job market was delivering life-changing gains for many individuals, families, and communities, particularly at the lower end of the income spectrum.15 In addition, many who had been left behind for too long were finding jobs, benefiting their families and communities, and increasing the productive capacity of our economy. Before the pandemic, there was every reason to expect that these gains would continue. It is hard to overstate the benefits of sustaining a strong labor market, a key national goal that will require a range of policies in addition to supportive monetary policy.』
さらに先般までの労働市場改善で良かったのは、労働市場の改善の恩恵がこれまで得られにくかったマイノリティの方々などにも伝わったことで、景気改善のメリットが及ばずに置いて行かれるという人が極めて少なかったということです(ちなみに上記の中でmany who had been left behind for too long were finding jobsってのがありますが、確かノーワンレフトビハインドってSDGsの中でも謳われる理念だった気が)。
『Fourth, the historically strong labor market did not trigger a significant rise in inflation. Over the years, forecasts from FOMC participants and private-sector analysts routinely showed a return to 2 percent inflation, but these forecasts were never realized on a sustained basis (see figure 3). Inflation forecasts are typically predicated on estimates of the natural rate of unemployment, or "u-star," and of how much upward pressure on inflation arises when the unemployment rate falls relative to u-star.16 As the unemployment rate moved lower and inflation remained muted, estimates of u-star were revised down. For example, the median estimate from FOMC participants declined from 5.5 percent in 2012 to 4.1 percent at present (see figure 4). The muted responsiveness of inflation to labor market tightness, which we refer to as the flattening of the Phillips curve, also contributed to low inflation outcomes.17 In addition, longer-term inflation expectations, which we have long seen as an important driver of actual inflation, and global disinflationary pressures may have been holding down inflation more than was generally anticipated. Other advanced economies have also struggled to achieve their inflation goals in recent decades.』
『The persistent undershoot of inflation from our 2 percent longer-run objective is a cause for concern. Many find it counterintuitive that the Fed would want to push up inflation. After all, low and stable inflation is essential for a well-functioning economy. And we are certainly mindful that higher prices for essential items, such as food, gasoline, and shelter, add to the burdens faced by many families, especially those struggling with lost jobs and incomes. However, inflation that is persistently too low can pose serious risks to the economy. Inflation that runs below its desired level can lead to an unwelcome fall in longer-term inflation expectations, which, in turn, can pull actual inflation even lower, resulting in an adverse cycle of ever-lower inflation and inflation expectations.』
インフレ期待の話と来てますので、その次に来るのは上記の頭の通り、「2%を持続的に下回るインフレが続くとインフレ期待が下がる可能性があるのが懸念である」という話をしているのですが、その説明の中でちゃっかりと「And we are certainly mindful that higher prices for essential items, such as food, gasoline, and shelter, add to the burdens faced by many families, especially those struggling with lost jobs and incomes.」と入れているのが味わいあるなあとは思いました。こういうのが確りと打ち込まれているというのは、2%のインフレ目標がどうのこうので多少のオーバーシュートは容認、という話だけをぶっこむと、米国の場合でも「一般家庭は食料や燃料などの値上げで困っとるんじゃしかも今はコロナで職もあばばばばーなんだぞワシントンのスットコドッコイ共分かっとるのか」というような論調が登場するのでそのヘッジを確りと入れている、ということなんだろうなあ、とか思ったんですけどどうでしょうかね。
『This dynamic is a problem because expected inflation feeds directly into the general level of interest rates. Well-anchored inflation expectations are critical for giving the Fed the latitude to support employment when necessary without destabilizing inflation.18 But if inflation expectations fall below our 2 percent objective, interest rates would decline in tandem. In turn, we would have less scope to cut interest rates to boost employment during an economic downturn, further diminishing our capacity to stabilize the economy through cutting interest rates. We have seen this adverse dynamic play out in other major economies around the world and have learned that once it sets in, it can be very difficult to overcome. We want to do what we can to prevent such a dynamic from happening here.』
次の小見出しが『Elements of the Review』なのですが、ここはレビューをした経過の説明で、フェドリッスンズの実施とか学者集めたシンポジウム(正直言ってあれは無意味だった気がするけど)にFOMCでの議論などをしましたが、コロナ対応とかしてたのでちと中断しましたわ、というような話をしているだけなので割愛しまして、その次の小見出しの『New Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy』という全力でキタコレな小見出しに参ります。
『The federated structure of the Federal Reserve, reflected in the FOMC, ensures that we always have a diverse range of perspectives on monetary policy, and that is certainly the case today. Nonetheless, I am pleased to say that the revised consensus statement was adopted today with the unanimous support of Committee participants.』
『Our new consensus statement, like its predecessor, explains how we interpret the mandate Congress has given us and describes the broad framework that we believe will best promote our maximum-employment and price-stability goals. Before addressing the key changes in our statement, let me highlight some areas of continuity.』
『We continue to believe that specifying a numerical goal for employment is unwise, because the maximum level of employment is not directly measurable and changes over time for reasons unrelated to monetary policy. The significant shifts in estimates of the natural rate of unemployment over the past decade reinforce this point. In addition, we have not changed our view that a longer-run inflation rate of 2 percent is most consistent with our mandate to promote both maximum employment and price stability.』
『Finally, we continue to believe that monetary policy must be forward looking, taking into account the expectations of households and businesses and the lags in monetary policy's effect on the economy. Thus, our policy actions continue to depend on the economic outlook as well as the risks to the outlook, including potential risks to the financial system that could impede the attainment of our goals.』
『The key innovations in our new consensus statement reflect the changes in the economy I described.』
先ほど説明した経済構造の変化を反映して以下のような手直しを行いました。
『Our new statement explicitly acknowledges the challenges posed by the proximity of interest rates to the effective lower bound. By reducing our scope to support the economy by cutting interest rates, the lower bound increases downward risks to employment and inflation.22 To counter these risks, we are prepared to use our full range of tools to support the economy.』
『In addition, our revised statement says that our policy decision will be informed by our "assessments of the shortfalls of employment from its maximum level" rather than by "deviations from its maximum level" as in our previous statement.24』
ちなみにここで言及されている件の従来の文言ですが、従来のところでは3パラ目の頭に「In setting monetary policy, the Committee seeks to mitigate deviations of inflation from its longer-run goal and deviations of employment from the Committee’s assessments of its maximum level.」(この部分は従来のロンガーランゴールのステートメントから引用しています)となっているのですが、この「deviations」の部分を「shortfalls」に変更しましたという話。ちなみに物価に関しても同じです。でもってその意味は、
『This change may appear subtle, but it reflects our view that a robust job market can be sustained without causing an outbreak of inflation.』
『In earlier decades when the Phillips curve was steeper, inflation tended to rise noticeably in response to a strengthening labor market. It was sometimes appropriate for the Fed to tighten monetary policy as employment rose toward its estimated maximum level in order to stave off an unwelcome rise in inflation.』
『The change to "shortfalls" clarifies that, going forward, employment can run at or above real-time estimates of its maximum level without causing concern, unless accompanied by signs of unwanted increases in inflation or the emergence of other risks that could impede the attainment of our goals.25 Of course, when employment is below its maximum level, as is clearly the case now, we will actively seek to minimize that shortfall by using our tools to support economic growth and job creation.』
『We have also made important changes with regard to the price-stability side of our mandate. Our longer-run goal continues to be an inflation rate of 2 percent. Our statement emphasizes that our actions to achieve both sides of our dual mandate will be most effective if longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. However, if inflation runs below 2 percent following economic downturns but never moves above 2 percent even when the economy is strong, then, over time, inflation will average less than 2 percent. Households and businesses will come to expect this result, meaning that inflation expectations would tend to move below our inflation goal and pull realized inflation down.』
『To prevent this outcome and the adverse dynamics that could ensue, our new statement indicates that we will seek to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time.』
「averages 2 percent over time」キタコレというお話で、
『Therefore, following periods when inflation has been running below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.』
それはすなわち2%を割り込む期間の後は2%をモデレートに超えるようなインフレを目指すのが適切、ということですけど、まあmoderatelyだのfor some timeだのという逃げ口上も入っているのがチャーミング。つまり、
『In seeking to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, we are not tying ourselves to a particular mathematical formula that defines the average.』
averages 2 percent over timeという時の「平均2%」というのは、何か特定の数学的なフォーミュラを意味するものではありません(キリッ)ってなっていまして、だったら今までのシンメトリック2%とどう違うんだという話ではあるのですが、たぶん同じなんですよこれ(個人の感想ですけど)。
『Thus, our approach could be viewed as a flexible form of average inflation targeting.26』
今までのシンメトリックターゲットってのが分かりにくいからこうした、と言わんばかりですがな。
『Our decisions about appropriate monetary policy will continue to reflect a broad array of considerations and will not be dictated by any formula.』
『Of course, if excessive inflationary pressures were to build or inflation expectations were to ratchet above levels consistent with our goal, we would not hesitate to act.』
『The revisions to our statement add up to a robust updating of our monetary policy framework. To an extent, these revisions reflect the way we have been conducting policy in recent years. At the same time, however, there are some important new features. Overall, our new Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy conveys our continued strong commitment to achieving our goals, given the difficult challenges presented by the proximity of interest rates to the effective lower bound.』
『In conducting monetary policy, we will remain highly focused on fostering as strong a labor market as possible for the benefit of all Americans. And we will steadfastly seek to achieve a 2 percent inflation rate over time.』
ここまで説明した事のまとめという感じで、まあゆうとることは同じなんですけど、これだとヘッドライン的には雇用重視って出るんでしょうなあとは思いましたが、フィリップスカーブが寝ているというのが前提にあるのでその辺はまあ留保して考える必要があるっしょ、とは思いましたです。まあ何だかんだ言って「strong commitment to achieving our goals」とはゆうとるものの、特に新規の概念がぶっこまれたという訳ではなくて、従来からああでもないこうでもないと説明していた話をステートメントに織り込んだらこうなりました、って感じじゃねえのか、とは思いますがまあそこは受け止め次第でしょうな。
・まとめ部分
次の小見出しが『Looking Ahead』である。これは最後のまとめみたいなもん。
『Our review has provided a platform for productive discussion and engagement with the public we serve. The Fed Listens events helped us connect with our core constituency, the American people, and hear directly how their everyday lives are affected by our policies. We believe that conducting a review at regular intervals is a good institutional practice, providing valuable feedback and enhancing transparency and accountability. And with the ever-changing economy, future reviews will allow us to take a step back, reflect on what we have learned, and adapt our practices as we strive to achieve our dual-mandate goals. 』
『As our statement indicates, we plan to undertake a thorough public review of our monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices roughly every five years.』
えーっとですな、パウエルが講演している間にこれがFRBのサイトに投下されてまして、 [外部リンク] 27, 2020 Federal Open Market Committee announces approval of updates to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy For release at 9:10 a.m. EDT
そして今回の親切設計はこちら。 [外部リンク] to changes in the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy
『In the revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy shown below, bold red text shows additions and struck-through text shows deletions relative to the statement the Committee issued on January 29, 2019. Note that the discussion of the employment and inflation goals have been separated into two paragraphs and their order reversed relative to the January 2019 statement. To improve readability, these changes are not marked with bold red text or struck-through text.』
[外部リンク] negative: the ECB’s experience Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Roundtable on Monetary Policy, Low Interest Rates and Risk Taking at the 35th Congress of the European Economic Association
講演のお題の方が「Going negative: the ECB’s experience」と割とネタに行けそうですな。あんまり長くない(と大口を叩いたが結局途中を盛大に飛ばす羽目になりました、汗)辺りにちょっと嫌な予感もしますがゴーゴーレッツゴー。
・序論では当然「効果がありました」にはなるのですがちょっと味わいがある
話のマクラの部分からいきなりどこかの誰かさんは爪の垢を煎じて飲むべきというのが出てきてワロエル。
『In June 2014, the ECB was the first major central bank to lower one of its key interest rates into negative territory.[1] As experience with negative interest rates was scant, the ECB proceeded cautiously over time, lowering the deposit facility rate (DFR) in small increments of 10 basis points, until it reached -0.5% in September 2019.』
『While negative interest rates have, over time, become a standard instrument in the ECB’s toolkit, they remain controversial, both in central banking circles and academia.[2]』
『In my remarks today, I will review the ECB’s experience with its negative interest rate policy (NIRP). I will argue that the transmission of negative rates has worked smoothly and that, in combination with other policy measures, they have been effective in stimulating the economy and raising inflation.』
『On balance, the positive effects of the NIRP have exceeded their side effects, in particular when taking into account the compensating effects of other policy innovations, such as the two-tier system and our targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs).』
『At the same time, like with other unconventional policy measures, side effects are likely to increase over time, if the negative interest rate environment were to persist for too long.』
マイナス金利政策長期化の弊害キタコレ。しかも拡大中との認識ですな。
『As negative rates are, by and large, a reflection of broader slow-moving adverse macroeconomic trends, the pandemic is a wake-up call for governments to foster innovation and potential growth, and to reap the benefits from further European integration.』
『Over the past few decades, the global macroeconomic environment has changed in ways that pose significant challenges to the conduct of monetary policy.』
と来たからには中立金利の低下の話かと思うとその通り。
『Sustained demographic shifts, global excess savings and a slowdown in productivity growth have all contributed to a secular decline in the real equilibrium rate of interest over the last 20 years in most advanced economies, though estimates are fraught with a considerable degree of uncertainty (Chart 1).[3]』
図表が何故か別リンクになっていて、URLが無駄にクッソ長いので途中までの所にしかハイパーリンクしてませんがちゃんと飛ぶはず。 [外部リンク] decline in equilibrium real interest rates in major advanced economies』ってので、ECBのモデル推計による主要国の実質中立金利の図表です。ユーロ圏、米国、日本、英国が出ていますが、UK以外の「実質中立金利」はマイナスになっています、だそうで。
『Central banks have responded in different ways to the fall in equilibrium rates. As the global financial crisis broke and conventional policy space was exhausted, most central banks resorted to forward guidance as a means to provide additional accommodation. Some started purchasing government bonds and other securities.』
政策金利の下げ余地が無くなったのでフォワードガイダンスとかAPPとかを各国は行ったよと。
『The ECB, for its part, tailored its non-standard measures to the structure of the euro area economy, where banks play a significant role in credit intermediation. In essence, this meant providing ample liquidity for a much longer period than under the ECB’s standard operations.』
『In mid-2014, however, when downside risks to the inflation outlook intensified, additional accommodation was required. Negative interest rates were a crucial part of the measures that the Governing Council adopted at the time.』
『The idea was, broadly speaking, twofold: to trigger a repricing of the expected future path of short-term interest rates by “breaking through” the zero lower bound and to encourage banks to provide more credit to the economy.』
次の小見出しが『Transmission of monetary policy in an environment of negative policy rates』ですが、マイナス金利ぶっこんだので市場金利が盛大に下がりましたよという話の部分ははいはいそうですねという部分なのですっ飛ばしまして途中から。
『Negative interest rates reinforced the effects of our asset purchases for the same reasons: when banks’ excess reserves are remunerated at negative rates, there is a strong incentive to reduce them by shifting into riskier assets, such as longer-dated government bonds.[5] This strengthens the portfolio rebalancing channel of asset purchases.』
『This “hot potato effect” also extends to bank loans, which was the second objective of lowering rates into negative territory. With the start of negative rates, we have observed a steady increase in the growth rate of loans extended by euro area monetary financial institutions (Chart 4).』
チャート4とある割には3枚目のチャートのような気もするんですが『Substantial positive effects of NIRP on loan growth』という凄い題名のスライドがさっきのスライド集の方にありまして、そこでは堂々と『Estimated impact of NIRP on bank loans to firms』という推計値を出しているのだが、その差を見ると「Substantial positive effects」かよと言いたくなる。
・・・・・というのもあるんですが、そもそもこの説明がアカンのはその前段で「when banks’ excess reserves are remunerated at negative rates, there is a strong incentive to reduce them by shifting into riskier assets」と言いながら貸出が伸びる話をしている件でして、金融機関が貸出を伸ばしたからと言いましても、別にそれは当該超過準備に対して何の影響も与えないですし、貸出伸びる→借りた企業はお支払いのために他行に送金する、となれば当該銀行は他行あて仕向為替が発生するから確かに超過準備が減るのですが、それは他行の超過準備の拡大という形に代わるだけなので、超過準備のバランス変わらんので、超過準備云々の流れで説明している(ように見える)この流れは筋悪説明。
『An ECB meta-analysis of various studies corroborates the view that the use of the NIRP had a positive impact on loan growth.[6] The analysis shows that, since the start of the NIRP regime in mid-2014, the growth of loans extended to non-financial corporations (NFCs) would have been lower in the vast majority of counterfactual scenarios of non-negative policy rates (Chart 5). In addition, several empirical studies exploiting bank-level data confirmed the causal link between negative policy rates and loan growth.[7]』
さっき申し上げたマイナス金利効果の推計値の話です。
『Taken together, these findings suggest that the lowering of policy rates into negative territory fostered monetary policy transmission in the euro area, as evidenced by the strong pass-through from policy rates to market rates and higher loan growth.』
以下、屁理屈の方は小見出しを見ますと、 Effect of negative policy rates on bank profitability and bank lending Effect of negative policy rates on bank risk-taking A longer-term perspective Concluding remarks と続きます。でもって例によって時間が無くなってきたので無理矢理途中をすっとばしてまとめだけネタにします(途中の部分はネタにするかもしれないししないかもしれない)と、
『Let me conclude by emphasising three key points.』
3つのキーポイントとな。
『First, the ECB’s negative interest rate policy has been successful in turning the zero lower bound into an effective lower bound well below zero and supporting bank lending. This fundamentally improved monetary transmission and helped to stimulate the economy and raise inflation.』
『Second, negative rates can have side effects on banks’ profitability and risk-taking behaviour. That said, the experience of the euro area over the past few years suggests that the positive effects dominated, supported by the use of other policy measures that directly mitigate the costs of negative rates.』
『Finally, side effects are likely to become more relevant over time. Since negative rates largely reflect adverse macroeconomic trends outside the remit of central banks, a forceful policy response by governments to the pandemic is indispensable for raising potential growth, thereby paving the way for positive interest rates in the future.』
The provision of euro liquidity through the ECB’s swap and repo operations Blog post by Fabio Panetta and Isabel Schnabel, Members of the Executive Board of the ECB 19 August 2020
・日銀ネタとしては関係ないけどスワップラインとレポラインの違いの説明はオモロイので鑑賞
小見出しの最初が『The basic functioning of swap and repo lines』ですが、ここはワシらの現世利益にあんまり関係ないと思うけどオモロイので引用します。
『Liquidity arrangements between central banks guarantee access to foreign liquidity through two basic types of operations: currency swaps and repos.』
ほうほうそれでそれで?
『A currency swap between two central banks is a contractual agreement in which the borrowing central bank obtains foreign currency against its own currency, with the promise to reverse the transaction at a pre-specified date, adding the agreed interest cost to the borrowed currency.』
『Swap line agreements are generally stipulated among central banks issuing major currencies. They ensure reciprocal access to each central bank’s currency and are considered to be low-risk transactions.[2] Most of these agreements are currently not in use, or are used only in one direction.[3]』
[外部リンク] are currency swap lines? 27 September 2016 (updated on 22 April 2020)
さっきの部分の中にこんなところへのリンクもありました。まあこの辺はワイらにもお馴染みの話。
『Repo lines are arrangements in which the lending central bank provides access to its currency to another central bank, accepting assets denominated in that same currency as collateral to secure the repayment of the funds by the borrowing central bank. To guard against fluctuations in the collateral value, the lending central bank applies a discount to the value of the collateral posted by its counterparties, also known as haircut. This practice mirrors the application of collateral haircuts in regular monetary policy operations.』
『Chart 1 illustrates the basic structures of swap and repo liquidity arrangements, using the example of the ECB.』
とあって『Chart 1 Comparison of the ECB’s swap and repo line arrangements.』となっているのですが、図表は貼り付けスキルが無いのでまあURL先を見てちょという話ですが、6中銀の相互スワップと、ECBとご近所中銀とのスワップラインがありますよというのが相関図みたいな感じで示されていまして、その右にrepo line arrangementsの状況ということで、ECBがルーマニアだのハンガリーだのの中銀とユーロ建ての担保を基にレポライン組んでまっせという図がありました。
でもってその2つの違いですが、
『From the viewpoint of the borrowing central bank, swap agreements are more attractive than repo lines for at least two reasons:』
借りる側から見たらスワップの方がオイチイそうな。
『First, they allow access to a currency issued by another central bank without having to provide collateral denominated in that currency. Second, the pricing of swap lines is typically more favourable than for repo arrangements.』
スワップなら担保出さなくていいし、金利水準もスワップの方がお得。
『Both types of operations are used as liquidity backstops in times of strained funding conditions in currency markets. That is, the cost of swap or repo arrangements for the borrowing central bank typically renders them more expensive than normal market funding; they only become attractive when market pricing deteriorates due to stressed conditions, which in turn has a stabilising impact on market conditions.』
『Traditionally, swap arrangements were often used by central banks - as supplements to their foreign reserves - to intervene in foreign exchange markets.[4] Based on lessons from the Global Financial Crisis, they, together with repo agreements, have increasingly been used to address monetary policy and financial stability concerns.[5] Today, major central banks provide swap and repo agreements mostly to alleviate funding strains in their own currency experienced by financial institutions in the jurisdiction of the borrowing central bank.』
次の『The role of US dollar and euro liquidity facilities』の最初の方は今次コロナ危機において6中銀スワップラインの中での取引強化(回数増やしたり3か月物を入れたり)をしたりして対応したら一瞬大爆発しかかったドルファンディング市場は落ち着きましたって話と図表なのでその辺飛ばして、
『The actual use of liquidity facilities differed widely across central banks, depending on prevailing market conditions. Chart 3 illustrates the evolution of the outstanding amount of US dollar liquidity taken up by several central banks under the standing swap line agreement with the Federal Reserve since the peak of the COVID-19 crisis.』
ということで、『Chart 3 Outstanding amounts in US dollar operations for selected central banks (USD bn).』というグラフがあって、またまた例によって図表磔刑スキルが無いのですが、8月の残高は14日ベースみたいですけれども、ECB、BOJ、BOE、SNBの数値があるんですけど、日銀だけ盛大に残高が残り続けていて、ここで示されている他の3中銀は残高がかなり減っているという図表がありまして割とワロエル。
でもって最後の小見出し『The ECB’s motivation for setting up liquidity arrangements』ですけれども、
『By providing a backstop, the euro liquidity facilities alleviate strained funding conditions and reduce funding costs for banks in the receiving central bank’s jurisdiction.[11] This at the same time generates advantages for the ECB: it helps to prevent forced asset sales by receiving central banks, mitigates spillover effects and further strengthens the role of the euro in international financial markets. By addressing risks of market dysfunction and liquidity shortages, the liquidity facilities support the smooth transmission of monetary policy in the euro area.』
『In periods of heightened financial market stress, such as the COVID-19 pandemic or the global financial crisis[12], funding conditions in foreign currency may deteriorate rapidly due to rising risk aversion. As a consequence, market participants may find it difficult to obtain sufficient liquidity in foreign currency to fulfil their payment obligations.』
『Chart 5 shows that a substantial proportion of the foreign reserve holdings of non-euro area central banks is denominated in euro, including sovereign bonds issued by euro area countries. This reflects the important role of the euro in global financial transactions.』
てな訳で『Chart 5 Developments in the shares of selected currencies in global official holdings of foreign exchange reserves.』ってのがあって、グローバルに見た外貨準備保有に関して、ユーロが増えてきている(ちなみにグラフのスケールがドルとドル以外は別にしているのに気が付かないとユーロがドルを逆転しているように見えるのはお茶目)の巻となっている、という観点からの、
『In the absence of a liquidity arrangement with the Eurosystem, tensions in euro funding markets may force a non-euro area central bank to sell part of its euro-denominated foreign reserve holdings to provide euro liquidity to its domestic counterparties.』
『If many counterparties rush for euro liquidity at once, several non-euro area central banks may have to simultaneously engage in broad-based asset sales, which may have a negative price impact on euro area bond markets. Liquidating holdings at a discount could result in self-reinforcing “fire sale” dynamics that would lead to abrupt movements in the prices and yields of euro area sovereign bonds.』
でまあその投げ売り雪崩でソブリン利回りが上がってしまうとイクナイ、という話で以下ソブリン上がると貸出金利とかも上がってしまうからアカン的な話をしていますがその辺はパスします。以下の小見出しは『2. Mitigating spillover effects』、『3. Strengthening the role of the euro』と来ていますが、2番はまあお察しの内容でして、3番に関しては今引用した部分と話が地続きなのですけど、その最初に、
『The smooth functioning of liquidity arrangements can enhance the euro’s international role, consistent with the objective set by euro area leaders.[14] The case and conditions for strengthening the euro’s role in international financial markets were outlined by Fabio Panetta in a recent ECB blog.』
[外部リンク] in frequency of 7-day US dollar liquidity-providing operations as of 1 September 2020 20 August 2020
『・ECB and other major central banks to reduce frequency of 7-day US dollar operations from three times per week to once per week, while 84-day operations continue to be offered weekly
・New frequency effective as of 1 September 2020, to remain in place for as long as appropriate to support smooth functioning of US dollar funding markets
・ECB and other major central banks standing ready to re-adjust provision of US dollar liquidity as warranted by market conditions』
やっていることは6中銀共通なので話は同じなのですが、微妙に味わいがあるのは「ECB and other major central banks standing ready to re-adjust provision」なのですが、はてさてこの話って誰がどう主導するんでしょ、というのがまあ奥の院の話だからよー分かりませんが、まあリーマンショックの時と比べて物凄い勢いでぶっこまれてきた(リーマンは初回だからしゃーなかった)辺りは、海外投資家のファイヤーセールを促すと米国金融機関ウマーとはならず、一緒になってファイヤーセールのファイヤーによって地獄の火の中に投げ込まれる、ということについては痛感したと思われる米国当局が積極的に動いたんでしょうなあ、という辺りまでは何となく想像は付く。
『In view of continuing improvements in US dollar funding conditions and the low demand at recent 7-day maturity US dollar liquidity-providing operations, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank, in consultation with the Federal Reserve, have jointly decided to further reduce the frequency of their 7-day operations from three times per week to once per week.』
やるときは6中銀同時になっているので、米国の状況オリエンテッドで決めてるんでしょうね。でもって理由は「continuing improvements in US dollar funding conditions and the low demand at recent 7-day maturity US dollar liquidity-providing operations」ということで市場の改善と7日ものドル資金供給の取り扱い減少です。
『This operational change will be effective as of 1 September 2020. At the same time, these central banks will continue to hold weekly operations with an 84-day maturity.』
『These central banks stand ready to re-adjust the provision of US dollar liquidity as warranted by market conditions. The swap lines among these central banks are available standing facilities and serve as an important liquidity backstop to ease strains in global funding markets, thereby helping to mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses, both domestically and abroad.』
The provision of euro liquidity through the ECB’s swap and repo operations Blog post by Fabio Panetta and Isabel Schnabel, Members of the Executive Board of the ECB 19 August 2020
『Swap and repo lines are well-established instruments in central banks’ toolkits. Since the global financial crisis they have increasingly been employed as stabilising tools in times of stress in global financial markets. The coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has once again underscored their importance.』
『This blog post explains the motivation for the Eurosystem granting non-euro area central banks access to euro liquidity through swap and repo facilities. It argues that liquidity arrangements are essential monetary policy instruments for central banks, and for the Eurosystem in particular.』
『By ensuring that euro funding is available to counterparties outside the euro area, the Eurosystem’s swap and repo agreements help the ECB to fulfil its price stability objective, prevent euro liquidity shortages from morphing into financial stability risks, and support the use of the euro in global financial and commercial transactions.』
『Taken together, this contributes to the smooth transmission of monetary policy in the euro area by preventing a possible undesirable tightening of credit provision in all, or part, of the euro area due to financial turmoil, which benefits the entire European economy and all European citizens.』
『Importantly, swap and repo lines serve as a backstop that should not compete with, or replace, private funding markets in the provision of euro liquidity to non-euro area residents. The mere existence of precautionary liquidity arrangements has a calming effect on investors, and may help to maintain orderly market conditions.』
バックストップとしての効用の話になって・・・・・・・・
『Limited recourse to these facilities by financial market participants should therefore not be interpreted as a sign that they are not needed.[1]』
『In fact, the signalling effect of the ECB being willing and able to provide liquidity in case of need has helped to calm market tensions so that the euro liquidity lines granted as a response to the crisis have not been used so far.』
The basic functioning of swap and repo lines The role of US dollar and euro liquidity facilities The ECB’s motivation for setting up liquidity arrangements 1. Preventing forced asset sales 2. Mitigating spillover effects 3. Strengthening the role of the euro Conclusion
『講演は米東部時間27日午前9時10分(日本時間午後10時10分)から始まる予定。カンザスシティー地区連銀は例年ワイオミング州ジャクソンホールで、世界の中央銀行首脳らを集め、年次経済シンポジウム(ジャクソンホール会合)を開催しているが、新型コロナウイルスの流行を踏まえ、今年は27─28日にテレビ会議方式で開催する。テーマは「今後10年の進路:金融政策にとっての意義(Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy)」。』
2020: Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy 2019: Challenges for Monetary Policy 2018: Changing Market Structure and Implications for Monetary Policy 2017: Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy 2016: Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future
一番最後に『Note: The Committee did not reaffirm this statement in January 2020 in light of its ongoing review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications practices. This statement is a reprint of the statement affirmed in January 2019.』とありますように、最初は年次見直しだったのですが今年はまだ、ということですので、まあジャク穴の講演もあるということですからこりゃ9月にこの手直しでますわな。
『The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Committee seeks to explain its monetary policy decisions to the public as clearly as possible. Such clarity facilitates well-informed decisionmaking by households and businesses, reduces economic and financial uncertainty, increases the effectiveness of monetary policy, and enhances transparency and accountability, which are essential in a democratic society』
『Inflation, employment, and long-term interest rates fluctuate over time in response to economic and financial disturbances. Moreover, monetary policy actions tend to influence economic activity and prices with a lag. Therefore, the Committee’s policy decisions reflect its longer-run goals, its medium-term outlook, and its assessments of the balance of risks, including risks to the financial system that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. 』
『The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy, and hence the Committee has the ability to specify a longer-run goal for inflation.』
つまりですね、最初に在りますようにこれぶっこまれたの2012年なのですが、当然ながらこれって逆さ絵議長の時の物件だからして、割と何の躊躇もなくここの文章がぶっこまれているのですが、中立金利が下がっただの潜在成長率が下がった、だのというような環境の変化で今まで通りの話、すなわち上記のように、「The inflation rate over the longer run is primarily determined by monetary policy」って言い切ってしまってエエのか、成長経済だったらそれが出来たかもしれないけれども、低温経済になった場合はそれをするために経済を無駄に吹かして金融不均衡を発生させてしまうとか、資源の最適配分を妨げるようなことをしないと行かない数字になるのではないか、みたいな議論が出てくるのは何時なのかなあ〜、などと思う今日この頃。
『The Committee reaffirms its judgment that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve’s statutory mandate.』
『The Committee would be concerned if inflation were running persistently above or below this objective. Communicating this symmetric inflation goal clearly to the public helps keep longer-term inflation expectations firmly anchored, thereby fostering price stability and moderate long-term interest rates and enhancing the Committee’s ability to promote maximum employment in the face of significant economic disturbances.』
今回の見直しでいじって来るとしたらこちらでしょう。この中に「this symmetric inflation goal」とありまして、さらにその前の所で「FOMCは持続的に物価が目標値から上下の片方に乖離した状態となることを懸念する」というのがあって「シンメトリック」という話をしています。なお、これ1文になっているから分けられませんでしたけど、シンメトリックゴールで運営することによって企業や家計の物価に関する将来の見方を安定させて、皆様の経済行動への不確実性を減らし、長期金利の安定もしまっせ、というような効用の話になっていますので、まあ後半の方はさておきまして、たぶんこの最初の「The Committee would be concerned if inflation were running persistently above or below this objective. 」という一文をもう少し「平均したサイクルで2%を目指すので、メイクアップストラテジー云々、ただしインフレがオーバーシュートしない時に限る」とかそんな言い方にするんでしょうな。あるいは「Communicating this symmetric inflation goal」のシンメトリックというのもちょっとこう用語として堅い気がする(個人の感想です)ので、ここをもうすころ「景気のサイクルの中で平均的に2%」という話をするのかな、と思います。
『The maximum level of employment is largely determined by nonmonetary factors that affect the structure and dynamics of the labor market. These factors may change over time and may not be directly measurable.』
『Consequently, it would not be appropriate to specify a fixed goal for employment; rather, the Committee’s policy decisions must be informed by assessments of the maximum level of employment, recognizing that such assessments are necessarily uncertain and subject to revision.』
よって最大雇用の水準については常に確認しながらその数値を直していきまっせ。
『The Committee considers a wide range of indicators in making these assessments. Information about Committee participants’ estimates of the longer-run normal rates of output growth and unemployment is published four times per year in the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections. For example, in the most recent projections, the median of FOMC participants’ estimates of the longerrun normal rate of unemployment was 4.4 percent. 』
『In setting monetary policy, the Committee seeks to mitigate deviations of inflation from its longer-run goal and deviations of employment from the Committee’s assessments of its maximum level.』
『These objectives are generally complementary. However, under circumstances in which the Committee judges that the objectives are not complementary, it follows a balanced approach in promoting them, taking into account the magnitude of the deviations and the potentially different time horizons over which employment and inflation are projected to return to levels judged consistent with its mandate.』
現在のところ、 [外部リンク] of the Federal Open Market Committee July 28-29, 2020
今日はちゃんと語順で読んでみますが『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』の昨日読み切れなかった所から参ります。
・先行き不透明の中だが経済活動再開と財政措置によって個人消費は強めの持ち直し
『Participants noted that the coronavirus pandemic was causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Following sharp declines, economic activity and employment had picked up somewhat in recent months but remained well below levels at the beginning of the year. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices were holding down consumer price inflation. Overall financial conditions had improved in recent months, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses. Participants agreed that the path of the economy would depend on the course of the virus, which was seen as highly uncertain.』
最初のパラグラフで示されている話って大体声明文の第1パラグラフ(最近の声明文は最初に「The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.」っていう頑張ります文言が入っているので2パラ目になりますが)の現状判断文言部分と大体同じものが出てくるという仕様になっていまして今回も概ねこれは見たことある話でコロナでエライコッチャになっておりましたが、茲許若干持ち直しているけど水準はあばばばばーだし先行きはコロナ拡大次第なのでさっぱりワカランチ会長と。
『Participants noted that the rebound in consumer spending from its trough in April had been particularly strong. Resumption in economic activity, as well as payments to households under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, had supported household income and consumer expenditures.』
『Participants observed that with this rebound, household spending likely had recovered about half of its previous decline.』
個人消費はコロナでの落ち込みを半分取り返したそうな。
『Consumers' purchases of goods-including motor vehicles, other durables, and especially goods sold online-had bounced back much more than their purchases of services, such as air travel, hotel accommodations, and restaurant meals, which were disrupted significantly by social distancing and other effects of the virus.』
『With regard to the behavior of household spending in recent weeks, participants pointed to information from District contacts and high-frequency indicators (such as credit and debit card transactions and mobility indicators based on cellphone location tracking) as suggesting that increases in some consumer expenditures had likely slowed in reaction to the further spread of the virus.』
出たな「high-frequency indicators」ということで、日銀もしっかりこの辺の研鑽をしておいて大正解でございましたなという感じですが、クレジットカード販売状況やら人間の移動状況などから勘案するに、最近数週間に関して言うと、感染症再拡大によって消費者の動きが鈍化している傾向がみられることが見受けられます、という話ですが、その前段にちゃんと「information from District contacts」というのも入れて、従来通りのアネクドータルな情報についても言及しているのがイイネ!って感じでして、ビックデータ活用云々って、居ながらにしてデータ取れてしまいますので便利なのですが、まあそうはゆうてもアタクシのようなアナログ人間から致しますと、地上戦の状況は上から見るだけではなく現地に足を運んだり前線の方から直接聞くなど、要はフィールドワークとかアネクって大事だよね、と思うのでこの表現は好感を持つわ。
『Participants noted that households' spending on discretionary services-such as leisure, travel, and hospitality-would likely be subdued for some time and thus would be a factor restraining the pace of recovery.』
そらそうよという感じで、観光産業などはそっちに消費が行かんから今後もアカンやろという話。
・企業部門は引き続きアカンし先行きは感染症の動向次第という順当な話
『In contrast to the sizable rebound in consumer spending, participants saw less improvement in the business sector in recent months, and they noted that their District business contacts continued to report extraordinarily high levels of uncertainty and risks.』
『Several participants relayed examples of some operational difficulties their business contacts were reportedly facing in the current environment. These difficulties included managing disruptions in supply chains, challenges associated with closure and reopening, and elevated employee absenteeism in some cases. Furthermore, some participants noted that small businesses were under significant strain.』
『Participants noted that, in light of conditions in the business sector, business investment spending continued to be subdued. Participants generally agreed that actions of consumers and businesses in taking steps to slow the spread of the virus, along with developments in public health, would be critical in ensuring a durable reopening of businesses.』
『Several participants also commented on ongoing challenges facing the energy or farm sector despite recent improvements. In the energy sector, these challenges included still-low oil demand, excess inventories, and low oil prices, while in the farm sector they included low prices of some farm commodities, pandemic-related disruptions in some food processing plants, and a significant decline in demand for ethanol.』
パラグラフ分けてますが、エネルギーセクターと農業部門の動向も懸念されるようで。
・労働市場に関しての先行き認識が厳しい中ではハト派的なメッセージが出る可能性は考えなくて良いっしょ
『Regarding the labor market, many participants commented that the pace of employment gains, which was quite strong in May and June, had likely slowed. The increasing number of virus cases in many parts of the country had led to delays in some business reopenings and to some reclosures as well.』
『The pace of declines in initial unemployment insurance claims had slowed in recent weeks, and claims remained at an elevated level. In addition, participants emphasized that the labor market was a long way from a full recovery even after the positive May and June employment reports; these reports indicated that, through June, only about one-third of the roughly 22 million loss in jobs that occurred over March and April had been offset by subsequent gains.』
数字など出されていますがこの辺りの政策インプリケーションのあるポイントはは「the labor market was a long way from a full recovery」という話で、まあつまり昨日の米国市場ちゃんってYCCに強烈なダメ出しとかしているのでしょんぼりしたらしいですが、緩和政策が長期化するでしょうという話は労働市場の認識部分を見れば全然変わらない話であることが明らかなので、9月に何か出る(アタクシの読み筋は少なくともロンガーランゴールオブ何とかは手直ししてきて、フォワードガイダンスは微妙という感じだがいずれにせよ今のバイアスを強めるようなものは出ないで概ね現状追認)としても、別にタカ派的なものが出てくる余地というのは無いでしょ、と思うのよね。労働市場にもっと強気なら出口をもう少し意識させるかも知れませんけど現状の労働市場へのFEDの認識は「こりゃダメだ(盆回しの音楽と共に)」という奴ですからね。
『Participants generally agreed that prospects for further substantial improvement in the labor market would depend on a broad and sustained reopening of businesses. In turn, such a reopening would depend in large part on the efficacy of health measures taken to limit the spread of the virus.』
『Participants also discussed the nature of the current situation in the labor market.』
the nature of the current situationとは何ぞ??
『They noted that the downturn in employment was concentrated among lower-wage and service-sector workers, many of whom were employed in industries most adversely affected by social-distancing measures. And with lower-wage and service-sector jobs disproportionately held by African Americans, Hispanics, and women, these portions of the population were bearing a disproportionate share of the economic hardship caused by the pandemic.』
出たな格差拡大問題ということでして、じゃあこれに対してはと言いますと当然の事ですが・・・・・・・・
『Participants noted that the fiscal support initiated in the spring through the CARES Act had been very important in granting some financial relief to millions of families. A number of participants observed that, with some provisions of the CARES Act set to expire shortly against the backdrop of a still-weak labor market, additional fiscal aid would likely be important for supporting vulnerable families, and thus the economy more broadly, in the period ahead.』
『In their comments about inflation, participants generally judged that the negative effect of the pandemic on aggregate demand was more than offsetting upward pressures on some prices stemming from supply constraints or from higher demand for certain products, so that the overall effect of the pandemic on prices was seen as disinflationary.』
『Recent low monthly readings of PCE prices suggested that the 12-month change measure of PCE price inflation would likely continue to run well below the Committee's 2 percent objective for some time.』
今の調子だと暫くは2%目標には行かない状況が続くとみられるので・・・・・・・
『Against this backdrop, a few participants noted a risk that longer-term inflation expectations might move below levels consistent with the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective. Participants also noted that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy would likely be needed for some time to support aggregate demand and achieve 2 percent inflation over the longer run.』
『Participants observed that many measures of financial market functioning were indicating that improvements achieved since the extreme turbulence in March had been sustained.』
『Actions by the Federal Reserve, including emergency lending facilities established with approval of (and, in many cases, financial support from) the Treasury, had helped ease the strains in some financial markets seen earlier in the year and were supporting the flow of credit to households, businesses, and communities.』
『Participants observed that the volume of borrowing in recent months at many of the Federal Reserve's liquidity facilities had stayed low, reflecting improved availability of funding from market sources. And participants agreed that the Federal Reserve's ongoing provision of backstop credit in various forms continued to be important to sustain the market improvements already achieved.』
まあこの辺の話はほぼ順当で、ワシら、と言いつつこちらでも「with approval of (and, in many cases, financial support from) the Treasury」と財政様アリガタヤアリガタヤと財政に花を持たせるスタンスキタコレですな。今後もバックストップとしてのサポートは必要、という言い方なのでサービスレートでガシガシという話ではない。
・先行きリスクは当然はいはいコロナコロナ
でもって次のパラグラフは先行きのリスク要因。
『Participants observed that uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook remained very elevated, with the path of the economy highly dependent on the course of the virus and the public sector's response to it.』
はいはいコロナコロナという順当な認識。
『Several risks to the outlook were noted, including the possibility that additional waves of virus outbreaks could result in extended economic disruptions and a protracted period of reduced economic activity. In such scenarios, banks and other lenders could tighten conditions in credit markets appreciably and restrain the availability of credit to households and businesses.』
『Other risks cited included the possibility that fiscal support for households, businesses, and state and local governments might not provide sufficient relief of financial strains in these sectors and that some foreign economies could come under greater pressure than anticipated as a result of the spread of the pandemic abroad.』
『Several participants noted potential longer-run effects of the pandemic associated with possible restructuring in some sectors of the economy that could slow the growth of the economy's productive capacity for some time.』
『A number of participants commented on various potential risks to financial stability.』
とは言っても今回の金融安定へのリスクは市場がヒャッハーではない方の話。
『Banks and other financial institutions could come under significant stress, particularly if one of the more adverse scenarios regarding the spread of the virus and its effects on economic activity was realized. Nonfinancial corporations had carried high levels of indebtedness into the pandemic, increasing their risk of insolvency.』
『There were also concerns that the anticipated increase in Treasury debt over the next few years could have implications for market functioning.』
財政赤字が盛大に拡大していく見通しというのは米国債市場に対する「implications for market functioning」があるでしょうってことでまあ需給というか先行き財政懸念で金利が上がる話ですかね。
『There was general agreement that these institutions, activities, and markets should be monitored closely, and a few participants noted that improved data would be helpful for doing so.』
『Several participants observed that the Federal Reserve had recently taken steps to help ensure that banks remain resilient through the pandemic, including by conducting additional sensitivity analysis in conjunction with the most recent bank stress tests and imposing temporary restrictions on shareholder payouts to preserve banks' capital. A couple of participants noted that they believed that restrictions on shareholder payouts should be extended, while another judged that such a step would be premature.』
[外部リンク] of the Federal Open Market Committee July 28-29, 2020
A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held by videoconference on Tuesday, July 28, 2020, at 10:00 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, July 29, 2020, at 9:00 a.m.1
最初の小見出しが『Review of Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices』なのでこれはどう見ても釣られなければ行けません、ということですが何か短いなオイ。
『Participants continued their discussion related to the ongoing review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices.』
は良いのですが、この部分1パラグラフしかないという少量構成になっておりまして・・・・・・・・
『At this meeting, they discussed potential changes to the Committee's Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy.』
ロンガーランゴールズ云々は最初ぶっこまれてから毎年1月のFOMCでレビューしてるんですが、今年は(別にコロナとは関係なく)見直ししましょってやってたので昨年1月版のままになっておりまする。ちなブツは→[外部リンク] agreed that, in light of fundamental changes in the economy over the past decade-including generally lower levels of interest rates and persistent disinflationary pressures in the United States and abroad-and given what has been learned during the monetary policy framework review, refining the statement could be helpful in increasing the transparency and accountability of monetary policy.』
ということで来ましたって所ですが、「refining the statement」ということであくまでも「リファイン」であって「チェンジ」とかではないですから、基本的に現状で示唆されている政策方向性に沿った明確化というような方向になるんでしょうなあ、という話ですが、「Participants agreed that」なので次回のFOMCで何かの手直しが入る可能性は高そうに思えますな。
でもってどういう変更をするかというと、「in light of fundamental changes in the economy」という状況で、具体的には「generally lower levels of interest rates and persistent disinflationary pressures in the United States and abroad」ということですから、まあ以前より話のある「メイクアップストラテジー」の考えを入れてくる、ということになるんでしょうね、と考えるのが穏当な線かな(個人の感想です)かと。
『Such refinements could also facilitate well-informed decisionmaking by households and businesses, and, as a result, better position the Committee to meet its maximum-employment and price-stability objectives.』
『Participants noted that the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy serves as the foundation for the Committee's policy actions and that it would be important to finalize all changes to the statement in the near future.』
「in the near future」にはそのリファインの「finalize」をするようですな。なおここの部分ではリファインじゃ無くてチェンジって言ってるけど、これはステートメント文言のチェンジという意味で、趣旨はリファインなんでネーノとか思いました。
毎度のインスタント読み技法(?)で『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』のケツからパラグラフごと逆順で読んでまいりますと、最後の2パラが今後の金融政策、といってもさっきのストラテジー云々よりも戦術の話で、ガイダンス文言どうするのかというのと、YCCとかその手の話はどうよという内容になっているので現世利益チック。逆順で読むので最終パラから参ります。
・イールドカーブキャップ政策に関する市場などの思惑を一刀両断しに掛かりました!!
ということで先に小見出しで結論入れてみましたがそういう事です。では参ります。
『A majority of participants commented on yield caps and targets-approaches that cap or target interest rates along the yield curve-as a monetary policy tool.』
『Of those participants who discussed this option, most judged that yield caps and targets would likely provide only modest benefits in the current environment, as the Committee's forward guidance regarding the path of the federal funds rate already appeared highly credible and longer-term interest rates were already low.』
>only modest benefits in the current environment >only modest benefits in the current environment >only modest benefits in the current environment
『Among these costs, participants noted the possibility of an excessively rapid expansion of the balance sheet and difficulties in the design and communication of the conditions under which such a policy would be terminated, especially in conjunction with forward guidance regarding the policy rate.』
『In light of these concerns, many participants judged that yield caps and targets were not warranted in the current environment but should remain an option that the Committee could reassess in the future if circumstances changed markedly. 』
>yield caps and targets were not warranted in the current environment >yield caps and targets were not warranted in the current environment >yield caps and targets were not warranted in the current environment
『A couple of participants remarked on the value of yield caps and targets as a means of reinforcing forward guidance on asset purchases, thereby providing insurance against adverse movements in market expectations regarding the path of monetary policy, and as a tool that could help limit the amount of asset purchases that the Committee would need to make in pursuing its dual-mandate goals.』
『With regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond this meeting, a number of participants noted that providing greater clarity regarding the likely path of the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate at some point.』
数人(a number of)の参加者が主張するのは、「先行きの政策金利パスを示すことに関して、より透明性を高めるべきではないか、この先のいずれかの時点において」というお話。
『Concerning the possible form that revised policy communications might take, these participants commented on outcome-based forward guidance-under which the Committee would undertake to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate at least until one or more specified economic outcomes was achieved-and also touched on calendar-based forward guidance-under which the current target range would be maintained at least until a particular calendar date.』
『In the context of outcome-based forward guidance, various participants mentioned using thresholds calibrated to inflation outcomes, unemployment rate outcomes, or combinations of the two, as well as combinations with calendar-based guidance.』
『In addition, many participants commented that it might become appropriate to frame communications regarding the Committee's ongoing asset purchases more in terms of their role in fostering accommodative financial conditions and supporting economic recovery.』
『More broadly, in discussing the policy outlook, a number of participants observed that completing a revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy would be very helpful in providing an overarching framework that would help guide the Committee's future policy actions and communications.』
『Participants discussed the current stance of monetary policy and the circumstances under which they might increase monetary policy accommodation or clarify their intentions regarding policy.』
ほうほうそれでそれで?
『Participants generally judged that the Committee's policy actions over the past several months had provided substantial accommodation; several of them observed that the Committee's asset purchases, which were designed to support financial market functioning and the smooth flow of credit, were likely also providing a degree of policy accommodation.』
ここはFOMC参加者による政策アクションの自画自賛コーナー。
『Noting the increase in uncertainty about the economic outlook over the intermeeting period, several participants suggested that additional accommodation could be required to promote economic recovery and return inflation to the Committee's 2 percent objective.』
数名(several)の参加者はから、前回のFOMC会合以降に不確実性が高まっているから「additional accommodation could be required」砲がが飛んでまいりました!!!!
『Some participants observed that, due to the nature of the shock that the U.S. economy was experiencing, strong fiscal policy support would be necessary to encourage expeditious improvements in labor market conditions.』
『Participants also judged that, in order to continue to support the flow of credit to households and businesses, it would be appropriate over coming months for the Federal Reserve to increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and CMBS at least at the current pace. These actions would be helpful in sustaining smooth market functioning, thereby fostering the effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. In addition, participants noted that it was appropriate that the Desk would continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repo operations. Participants observed that it would be important to continue to monitor developments closely and that the Committee would be prepared to adjust its plans as appropriate.』
『In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants reaffirmed their commitment to using the Federal Reserve's full range of tools to support the U.S. economy during this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.』
威勢の良い言い方ですが要するに現状維持。
『They noted that the path of the economy would depend significantly on the course of the virus and that the ongoing public health crisis would weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term and posed considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.』
『In light of this assessment, all participants considered it appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. Furthermore, participants continued to judge that it would be appropriate to maintain this target range until they were confident that the economy had weathered recent events and was on track to achieve the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.』
『CATARINA SARAIVA. Hi, Chair. Thanks for taking our questions. You mentioned earlier that the labor market we had in February was the best we’ve had in 50 years, yet at that point the Black unemployment rate was still double that of whites. So I wanted to ask you, you know, we’ve seen some economists and even the Biden campaign call for the Fed to more specifically target the gap between minority unemployment rates. Even if you don’t get a mandate on this from Congress, is it something you would consider more explicitly going forward? And how would you do that?』
『And then I also wanted to ask you about former economist Claudia Sahm’s writings from last night. She gave a pretty harrowing account of her time at the Fed-described harassment and professional gaslighting that others have also spoken to. Is this your Federal Reserve?』
『So we have started, though, in recent years to focus considerable time and attention on disparate levels of unemployment-for example, among-among different racial groups and demographic groups. We regularly discuss those differences in our FOMC discussions. We call them out in testimony and in speeches and in our Monetary Policy Report to Congress. You’ll see it everywhere, in all the things that we do.』
と最近特にこの点に注目している、という話をしていまして、ダイバーシティの問題に関しては、
『I would say, though, that we-you know, we have made it a very high priority to have as diverse and inclusive an organization as we can. And I think we’ve made a lot of progress on that. I think we want a place where it’s free to speak, where views are welcome, where people can disagree but must do so respectfully. I think a lot of organizations are coming around to understanding the importance of that. And I-my experience has been, you know, from my career in business too, is that organizations-the really successful organizations in our society get this. They do. They-mostly, they get it that if you want to attract the best people, this iswhat you-you’re going to attract the best people by having a diverse and inclusive workforce,so-and workplace. So we’ve made diversity a priority.』
『JEAN YUNG. Hi, Chair Powell. Thank you very much. I wanted to ask about forward guidance. Do you see merits to tying your asset purchases to economic outcomes? And would you consider both inflation and labor market conditions as part of those outcomes? And specifically, for the labor market, what conditions would you want to see before you think about pulling back stimulus? Thank you.』
フォワードガイダンスどうすんのということでエライ具体的に突っ込んできましたが、
『CHAIR POWELL. So that’s a great discussion that we-we’ve talked about that at past meetings, and I imagine we will at future meetings and haven’t made any decisions yet on that.』
ほう。
『But, you know, you’ve got a couple ways to go. You can tie?you can tie them to dates. You can say we will-for a specific period of time, we will keep rates at X level. Or you can say we’ll keep them there until you achieve a certain macroeconomic goal. And it can either be inflation or it could be an employment goal, as you pointed out.』
時間かコンディショナルか。
『And I think that, you know, there’s attraction in all of those depending on the situation, I think, for obvious reasons. You can imagine situations where, you know, where you’d really want to be targeting macroeconomic outcomes. It’s also the case, though, that sometimes? sometimes date-based guidance works too. I think it really is very fact specific, and it’s not something we’ve-you know, we haven’t made any decisions on that, so I wouldn’t be standing here telling you we’re going to go this way or that way, you know, should the time come for us to-to change our forward guidance.』
『BRIAN CHEUNG. Hi, Chairman Powell. Thanks so much. Brian Cheung with Yahoo Finance. I wanted to ask just how the framework review is working in tandem with your discussion on explicit forward guidance. So is the idea that you’re trying to have some order to that, that you would announce the findings of the Fed review before then committing to some sort of explicit forward guidance or even yield curve control policy? Thanks』
YCCはやらんじゃろと思いますけどね。
『CHAIR POWELL. You know, so I do think that completion of the review would-first of all, it’s something that was a very high priority for-we were really looking forward to completing it, probably, at the June meeting, but it might have been the meeting before that. We were right on track, and then we got distracted. I-and we weren’t expecting the pandemic, of course. Nobody was. So the pandemic came in. I think it is important to go back and finish that, and I do think that will inform, you know, everything we do going forward.』
パンデミックのせいでおくれていますはいはいサーセンサーセンとな。
『I would also tell you, though, that, to-to a very large extent, the-the changes we’ll make to the Statement of [on] Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy are really codifying the way we’re already acting with our policies. To a large extent, we’re already doing the things that are-that are in there. This is just a way of-of acknowledging that and putting them in the document. I can’t tell you what the exact timing of that will be, but I do think that’s a-that’s a sensible way to think about it. Thanks very much.』
『このように、ドル資金市場において、市場機能が比較的早期に回復に向かった背景としては、各国における機動的かつ大規模な財政政策が市場に安心感をもたらしたことなどに加え、問題の端緒があくまで dash for cash に伴う資金需給のひっ迫にあり、金融機関に対する信用不安が高まっていなかったため、中央銀行による流動性供給が効果を発揮しやすかったことも挙げられよう12。』
以下まとめとかありますが割愛します。状況の切り分けの部分についても良くまとまっていまして、とは言いましても「dash for cash」で括ってしまっているのはちょっと不満で、そうなる背景の方をもっとフォーカスしないと次回の危機の教訓にならないと思う、という点もうちょっと踏み込んで欲しいなとは思いましたが、これは良い記録という感じですなあと思いました。パート1と合わせまして金融市場局スタッフ渾身の日銀レビューですな。
(先行の×印コメント)『:新型コロナウイルス第2波が完全にやってきた今、Go To Travelキャンペーン等で申込みを頂いた旅行予約や静観中だった秋口の団体旅行も軒並み再取消しが発生している。4〜5月の前年比マイナス 97%に匹敵する減少率が旅行業界に再び襲ってくるのは必至である。観光業界の景気が戻る気配は全くない(旅行代理店)。』
(現状の□印コメント)『・前月にお中元及びクリアランス需要があった反動で今月は苦戦している。23〜26 日の4連休は期待した数値には届かなかった。前半の2日間はGo To Travelキャンペーンの効果もあり久々ににぎわったが、後半は新型コロナウイルス感染者増加の報道があり、外出を控えた人が多く失速した。月間の売上は前月よりマイナス幅が拡大し、前年比でマイナス8%の見込みである(百貨店)。』
