[外部リンク] STATEMENT PRESS CONFERENCE Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB Frankfurt am Main, 29 October 2020
[外部リンク] Federal Reserve’s New Monetary Policy Strategy 10.21.20 Loretta J. Mester 6th Annual Monetary and Financial Policy Conference, Money Macro and Finance Society, London, UK (via videoconference)
『Revised Statement on Long-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy』って小見出しから始まる(その前はただのマクラ)ですが、最初のパラグラフは先般来検討していましたが今回チェンジしました、ってだけの話をしているので飛ばしてその次から。
『The framework review was undertaken in light of changes in the economic environment that have emerged since the FOMC’s first strategy statement was published in 2012.』
『One change with important implications for monetary policy is the decline in the U.S. and other advanced economies in the general level of interest rates consistent with sustainable growth and price stability.』
でもって構造変化のインプリケーションということでいつもの説明ですね、1つが自然利子率の低下。
『This decline reflects several factors, including the aging of the population, changes in risk preferences, and slower productivity growth. It means that the level of the federal funds rate, the policy rate in the U.S., consistent with maximum employment and price stability is now lower than it has been in the past. This means that during economic downturns, it is now more likely that the fed funds rate will be constrained by its effective lower bound, and the FOMC will have less policy space to support the economy using its traditional policy tool.』
『This constraint, being understood by households, businesses, and financial markets, imparts a downward bias to inflation and inflation expectations, and so increases the downside risks to achieving our policy goals.』
『Another change in the economic environment with implications for monetary policy pertains to inflation dynamics.』
金融政策とインフレーションダイナミクスへの関係も変化したそうですよ。
『Resource slack in the labor market and in product markets has become less correlated with actual inflation than in the past, and inflation expectations now play a larger role in determining inflation outcomes. 』
『This means it is even more important that inflation expectations remain well anchored at levels consistent with our longer-run inflation goal. If expectations move below these levels, then it is more likely that inflation will run below our goal, which would then result in even less policy space in a low-interest-rate environment.』
『These changes in the economic environment warranted asking ourselves whether there were revisions to our monetary policy strategy that would make it more effective in promoting our policy goals. The review led us to conclude that the answer was yes. And we made changes to our approach to both the inflation goal and the employment goal, which are summarized in our revised strategy statement.』
『Regarding our approach to inflation, the first thing I want to note is something that did not change. The FOMC has reaffirmed the explicit inflation target first announced in 2012, namely, that a longer-run inflation rate of 2 percent is most consistent with our statutory mandate. But our strategy statement is now more explicit about how we will go about achieving this inflation goal. In particular, after periods in which inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, we will likely aim to have inflation run moderately above 2 percent for some time. Doing so will help anchor inflation expectations, a main determinant of actual inflation, at levels consistent with 2 percent inflation.』
『This new language is a stronger statement than we have made in the past as we have struggled to effectively convey that the longer-run goal of 2 percent should not be interpreted as a ceiling. In the past, many of us on the FOMC have indicated that we would be comfortable with inflation running above 2 percent for a time after it has run low for some time - a type of opportunistic reinflation. But now we are going to be deliberate rather than opportunistic. As the revised strategy indicates, after inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, not only will we tolerate serendipitous shocks that move inflation above 2 percent, but we will likely set policy with the intention of moving inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time. The implication is that monetary policy will be somewhat more accommodative than in the past when inflation has been running persistently low in order to reach our longer-run inflation goal.』
ミーのパソコン画面右下の時計表示を見て急に慌てた訳ではございますが(あちゃー)、まあここでオモロイなと思うのは物価目標に関する説明の最初にある「the first thing I want to note is something that did not change」ってのと、「 monetary policy will be somewhat more accommodative than in the past」ってところで、いや変わってないなら何で緩和的なのよ、とは思ったのですが、「2%を上回っても今回の場合に関してはマイルドな上昇を容認する」と言っているので、これ結局「今回はこうです」ってのがストラテジーの所に思いっきり出ているのが若干コンフュージングなんだろうなあ、とか思った所です。
『Regarding our employment goal, I view the changes we made in the strategy statement as an acknowledgment of the uncertainty around assessments of the level of maximum employment and a clarification to our approach to achieving this goal. This is consistent with something I have advocated for some time: that policy communications should acknowledge uncertainty.2 In the recent expansion, we saw that employment growth could be stronger and the unemployment rate lower without generating inflation than one would have thought possible based on past decades of experience. Over the expansion, it took time to learn about these structural changes in the economy, and as the FOMC learned, its assessments of the longer-run unemployment rate came down significantly over time. Unfortunately, this time-to-learn, combined with the previous strategy statement’s references to “deviations” of employment from maximum employment, has been misinterpreted by some as suggesting that the FOMC, at times, takes deliberate policy action to bring employment down independently of our inflation goal. This is not the case. The benefits of a strong labor market in fostering economic inclusion are clear.』
『Changes in the economy underscore the difficulties in using the Phillips curve model to forecast inflation or to assess maximum employment in real time. The revised strategy statement clarifies that in the absence of inflationary pressures or risks to financial stability, strong employment is not a concern and monetary policy will not react to it. This approach is consistent with the recent behavior of the FOMC. Estimates of simple monetary policy rules by the Cleveland Fed staff indicate that FOMC participants put less weight on the unemployment rate in determining the appropriate policy path in the last two years of the most recent economic expansion than they did earlier in the expansion.3』
ただまあここでハトバリバリの方との違いが2パラ目に出てくるのですが、フィリップスカーブがどうのこうのの話はさておき、きっちりと(ストラテジーの声明文にもあるんですけど)「The revised strategy statement clarifies that in the absence of inflationary pressures or risks to financial stability, strong employment is not a concern and monetary policy will not react to it.」と説明していることですな。
でもって時間がアレなのでまあ以下省略しますが、メスターさんの説明では最後に『Another Area for Further Work: Financial Stability and Monetary Policy』という小見出しがありまして、ファイナンシャルスタビリティマターキタコレという感じですが、まあどうせまたどこかでこの話出てくるでしょうから後日また出た時に成敗します。
メスター総裁の講演 [外部リンク] Federal Reserve’s New Monetary Policy Strategy 10.21.20 Loretta J. Mester 6th Annual Monetary and Financial Policy Conference, Money Macro and Finance Society, London, UK (via videoconference)
ECBパネッタ理事の講演 [外部リンク] digital euro for the digital era Introductory statement by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament
[外部リンク] 21, 2020 Achieving a Broad-Based and Inclusive Recovery Governor Lael Brainard At the "Post-COVID-Policy Challenges for the Global Economy" Society of Professional Economists Annual Online Conference (via webcast)
昨日時間切れだった金融政策のパートを確認します。
・金融政策に関しては相変わらずFOMCステートメントよりも踏み込んでおります(ハト派に)
『Monetary Policy』って所から。
『Finally, let me turn to how the new Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy will help monetary policy achieve its goals.』
ロンガーランゴールのステートメントが物価目標達成にどう寄与するのか、という話がおっぱじまる。
『The new statement on goals and strategy seeks to align monetary policy with key longer-run changes in the economy.12 The combination of a low neutral interest rate, underlying trend inflation below 2 percent, and the low responsiveness of inflation to resource slack embodied in a flat Phillips curve reduces the amount we can cut rates to buffer the economy, weakens inflation expectations, and could lead to worse employment and inflation outcomes over time.』
『Consequently, it is important to strengthen our ability to achieve our employment and inflation goals by committing to a path of policy and lowering borrowing costs along the yield curve.』
『The new statement on goals and strategy makes several key changes that should significantly improve the way the Committee conducts monetary policy. It eliminates the previous reference to a numerical estimate of the longer-run normal unemployment rate and instead defines the statutory maximum level of employment as a broad-based and inclusive goal.』
[外部リンク] to changes in the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy
の項番3をご覧ください。
では話を続けます。
『It commits that the Committee will aim to eliminate shortfalls of employment from its maximum level, rather than the previous reference to deviations, which could be in either direction. By eliminating the rationale for removing accommodation preemptively when the unemployment rate nears estimates of the natural rate in anticipation of high inflation that is unlikely to materialize, the new framework will avoid an unwarranted loss of opportunity for many Americans.』
『The broad-based and inclusive definition of maximum employment calls for a more comprehensive assessment of areas of slack in the labor market, such as the disparities in employment outcomes I discussed earlier.』
『To address the downward bias associated with the proximity of the policy rate to its lower bound, the new statement on goals and strategy adopts a flexible inflation averaging targeting (FAIT) strategy that seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time.』
ここからフレキシブルアベレージインフレーションターゲットの話。
『Under an inflation averaging strategy, appropriate monetary policy will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for a time to compensate for shortfalls during a period when it has been running persistently below 2 percent.』
アベレージなので下回ってた期間が長い場合はそれの埋め合わせ戦略(for a time to compensate for shortfalls)をするよ、と言ってるけどまあ時間的不整合の問題は起きるでしょうな、物価が上がってきたら。さらに次。
『The forward guidance adopted by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in September gives concrete expression to the new strategy outlined in the new statement of goals and strategy. The forward guidance sets out outcome-based criteria that it expects to be achieved before the Committee lifts the policy rate from the lower bound. The labor market must reach "levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment." Inflation would need to rise to 2 percent, and, in addition, the Committee would need to assess that inflation is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.
The new FAIT framework is implemented not only through these outcome-based conditions for the liftoff of the policy rate, but also through the commitment that monetary policy will remain accommodative after liftoff for some time in order to achieve "inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time," consistent with longer-term inflation expectations anchored at 2 percent.
This implies there likely will be a period after liftoff when the policy rate remains below neutral to support the inflation makeup strategy and maximum employment. Research indicates that an important precondition for forward guidance to be effective is that the public understands and believes the policymakers' commitment to making it happen.13 It will be important for the Committee to communicate clearly about our intentions and stay the course resolutely.』
『How will we know if the new FAIT strategy is working? In addition to carefully monitoring labor market and inflation outcomes, it will be important to monitor a variety of indicators to see evidence that longer-term inflation expectations are moving sustainably to 2 percent. Inflation expectations are difficult to measure directly, so I generally consult a set of indicators to provide a more complete picture than any one measure on its own. Changes in expectations reported in surveys provide one important source of information. For instance, median 5- and 10-year PCE inflation expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters both dropped considerably in the second quarter and stand at 1.7 percent and 1.85 percent, respectively, for the third quarter, which are the second lowest, and lowest, readings, respectively, in each series. The median 5-to-10-year measure from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers moved down in October to 2.4 percent, toward the lower end of its range in recent years, which is almost 1/2 percentage point below its range before 2014.』
『In addition to survey data that are available at a monthly or quarterly frequency, we monitor market-based measures of inflation expectations that are available daily. To use market-based measures of inflation compensation based on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) or inflation swaps, the signal on inflation expectations must be separated from liquidity and term premiums through model-based methods.14 After making those adjustments, TIPS-based 5- and 10-year inflation expectations were 1.41 percent and 1.66 percent, respectively, on the final day of the third quarter, up from the lows experienced in March but well below their historical average.』
『Finally, it is useful to consult measures of underlying trend inflation.15 A variety of estimates using time-series models suggest that underlying trend inflation may have moved down by as much as 1/2 percentage point over the past decade.16』
モデルを使った基調的なインフレの計測について話をしとる。
『It is difficult to anticipate how long it will take to achieve the conditions set out in the forward guidance. The September Summary of Economic Projections shows that most participants do not currently anticipate that the policy rate will depart from its lower bound by the end of 2023. When it does lift off, the policy rate could be expected to change only gradually, reflecting the commitment to remain accommodative until inflation has moderately exceeded 2 percent for some time. Of course, the pace of the recovery will dictate the actual path of monetary policy, as implied by the conditional outcome-based forward guidance adopted in September.
Indeed, a key benefit of outcome-based forward guidance is that it conveys the Committee's monetary policy reaction function in a manner that is transparent and responsive to changes in economic conditions.17』
『In conjunction with the forward guidance on the policy rate, the commitment to continue asset purchases at least at the current pace over coming months is also helping to achieve our goals by keeping borrowing costs low for households and businesses along the yield curve. As noted in the September FOMC minutes, in the months ahead, we will have the opportunity to deliberate and to clarify how the asset purchase program could best work in combination with forward guidance to support achievement of maximum employment and 2 percent average inflation.』
『While the strong bounceback in activity from the initial devastation of COVID-19 was heartening, the recovery thus far has been highly uneven, and the path ahead is highly uncertain. By pledging to provide accommodation until shortfalls from maximum employment have been eliminated and average inflation of 2 percent has been achieved, the new forward guidance will ensure that the recovery reaches those who have been disproportionately affected, leading to a broad-based and strong recovery.
Continued asset purchases will help achieve these outcomes by keeping borrowing costs low for households and businesses along the yield curve. This strong support from monetary policy-if combined with additional targeted fiscal support-can turn a K-shaped recovery into a broad-based and inclusive recovery that delivers better outcomes overall.』
『Prior to her appointment to the Board, Dr. Brainard served as Under Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Treasury from 2010 to 2013 and counselor to the Secretary of the Treasury in 2009. During this time, she was the U.S. representative to the G-20 Finance Deputies and G-7 Deputies and was a member of the Financial Stability Board. She received the Alexander Hamilton Award for her service.』
ということでヒラリーとマブダチとかでしたっけブレイナードさん。
[外部リンク] 21, 2020 Achieving a Broad-Based and Inclusive Recovery Governor Lael Brainard At the "Post-COVID?Policy Challenges for the Global Economy" Society of Professional Economists Annual Online Conference (via webcast)
ご覧の通りで先週水曜の案件で恐縮ですがこんなのがありまして、もう題名からして思いっきり「Achieving a Broad-Based and Inclusive Recovery」ということで政治っぽいですけれども、そもそもパウエル議長になってからやたらと「すべてのアメリカンに経済の恩恵を」というような話をするようになった、というのがありますし、コロナの影響を大きく受けているのが主に社会的なマイノリティである、というような話を最初の頃からずーっとパウエル以下皆さんがしていまして、最近急にジャパンでもSDGsとか言うようになりましたが、この「インクルーシブ」が出てきている辺りが最近のFEDの仕様ではありますがブレイナードが言うと味わいが深いですのう。
前置き部分でこんなことも言ってますからね〜。
『The U.S. economy saw a strong initial bounceback from the depths of the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) crisis, aided by significant targeted support. The recovery remains highly uncertain and highly uneven-with certain sectors and groups experiencing substantial hardship. These disparities risk holding back the recovery. The Federal Reserve is committed to providing sustained accommodation to achieve a broad-based recovery. Further targeted fiscal support will be needed alongside accommodative monetary policy to turn this K-shaped recovery into a broad-based and inclusive recovery.』
例によって例の如く「These disparities」ということでコロナで食らっているセクターと回復しているセクターがいて、そこに大きな差が起きているのはイクナイ、という話をしております。でもってまあ引き続きブレイナードですら、「Further targeted fiscal support will be needed alongside accommodative monetary policy」という訳でございまして、あくまでも「targeted fiscal support」の方をメインに置いて必要な政策を説明しているという訳でして、いや真面目な話米欧って中銀は基本的に「うちらの出来ることは緩和的な金融環境を維持してコロナで食らっている方向けの政府による政策の実行を側面支援するんです〜」位にしている(実際には実行部隊だったり社債買入したりしているけど)のでありまして、いやまあ日本の場合は政府の無策(または無能な働き者としての施策)部分を誤魔化さんがために政治方面から日銀への当たりが隙あらば強くなるので、何か日銀が無駄にアピールをしないといけない、という点では同情の余地が無いわけではないのですが、結局そうやってアピールするもんだから無駄に期待値が上がるのであって、できもしないことをあまり偉そうに言わない、というのも重要な事だと思うの。
『Targeted interventions, along with adaptations in the behavior of households and businesses, have enabled economic activity to recover. All told, after an unprecedented contraction in the first half of the year, U.S. gross domestic product appears likely to have reversed more than one-half of that decline in the third quarter.』
米国経済は年前半の落ち込みを概ね半分はこの7-9月期で回復したそうな。
『But within the overall improvement, some groups and sectors continue to see depressed employment, income, and revenues. Sustained disparities can hold back the recovery and lead to worse overall outcomes.』
でも一部のグループやセクターは寧ろ悪化しているところもあるで。 『Over the past month, the Federal Reserve Board has held three meetings with community groups, mission-oriented lenders, and representatives of frontline workers to hear about these disparities and their implications for the recovery.』
最近1か月ほど、ワイらはそういうグループとのミーティングを3回実施しました。
『Overall, total consumer expenditures in the United States have recovered about three-fourths of their spring decline through August. Interest-sensitive sectors such as residential real estate and autos have rebounded strongly-a welcome reminder of the power of monetary accommodation, especially when coupled with necessary fiscal support. Consumer spending on goods posted robust gains over the summer, and August levels exceeded those in January.』
『In sharp contrast, however, consumer spending on services through August has recovered only about 60 percent of its spring decline and remains well below pre-COVID-19 levels.』
『At the aggregate level, indicators of business investment, including shipments of capital goods, have been stronger than anticipated and point to a solid increase in equipment and investment spending in the third quarter. In contrast, investment on nonresidential structures remains depressed. Activity in some sectors remains substantially below pre-COVID-19 levels. For instance, airline passenger traffic is still 60 percent below its pre-pandemic level, contributing to the decline in aircraft orders this year, and hotel revenue per available room is only half the level of a year earlier.』
『Our actions have helped promote the flow of credit to households and businesses. Borrowing costs are low along the yield curve, and liquidity is abundant. Amid historically low corporate bond yields, gross issuance of both investment- and speculative-grade corporate bonds was strong in the third quarter.』
金融緩和は借入コストを削減して、企業や家計へのクレジットフローを作るのに寄与したと。
『In contrast to the favorable financing conditions for large businesses with access to capital markets, financing conditions for small businesses remain tight, with lower lending activity and signs of deteriorating loan performance.』
『Small businesses tend to be concentrated in sectors that entail high direct contact, operate with relatively tight cash buffers, and rely on bank credit rather market-based finance. In the most recent Census Bureau Small Business Pulse Survey from early October, more than 30 percent of small businesses report having one month or less of cash on hand.』
数字とか並んでいるのはすっ飛ばしますが(手抜き)要はスモールビジネスの金融環境は苦しいと。
『The most recent Federal Reserve Small Business Lending Survey indicates that the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) provided a critical lifeline for small and medium-sized businesses, but also that credit availability has otherwise tightened.』
『Driven primarily by PPP-related loans, originations of new small business commercial and industrial loans in the second quarter of 2020 were more than nine times the size of originations in either the first quarter of 2020 or the second quarter of 2019.2』
『However, 44 percent of respondents, on net, indicate loan standards tightened over the second quarter. About 43 percent of respondents, on net, reported a deterioration in the credit quality of small business applicants-the largest decline since the inception of the survey and only the second time in which respondents of all bank sizes, on net, reported a decline.』
『Minority small businesses have been particularly hard hit. According to recent research, between February and April, the economy saw a 41 percent decline in Black business owners and a 32 percent decline in Latinx business owners, compared with a 22 percent overall decline.3』
次の小見出しが『Support for a Broad-Based and Inclusive Recovery』である。
『Recent research indicates that the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act played a significant role in supporting aggregate demand in the spring and summer. Enhanced unemployment benefits offset the lost income of many lower-wage and services workers, in some cases at greater-than-wage-replacement rates. Household spending stepped up in mid-April, coinciding with the first disbursement of stimulus payments to households and a ramp-up in the payout of unemployment benefits, and showed the most pronounced increases in the states that received more benefits.10』
『The Survey of Consumer Finances indicates that cash-constrained households make up a significant fraction of the population. With unemployment and reduced hours likely to persist, many of these households are unlikely to be able to sustain recent levels of consumption without additional fiscal support as well as extended loan forbearance and eviction moratoriums. The financial security of displaced workers will depend importantly on whether unemployment benefits will be extended or supplemented-and if this will occur before any remaining savings accrued from the CARES Act funding run out.11』
『Analogous questions arise with regard to the many hard-hit small businesses that were sustained early in the crisis by PPP loans, whose finances are becoming increasingly strained as revenue shortfalls persist. Similarly, the state and local governments that were able to weather tax-and-fee revenue shortfalls early in the crisis are likely to find it more difficult to sustain employment and spending levels the longer the pandemic persists in the absence of further fiscal support.』
『Apart from the course of the virus itself, the most significant downside risk to my outlook would be the failure of additional fiscal support to materialize.』
キタコレ!!!!そして更に・・・・・・・・・・
『Too little support would lead to a slower and weaker recovery. Premature withdrawal of fiscal support would risk allowing recessionary dynamics to become entrenched, holding back employment and spending, increasing scarring from extended unemployment spells, leading more businesses to shutter, and ultimately harming productive capacity.』
Too little supportもPremature withdrawal of fiscal supportもアカンとか財政出す気満々発言頂きました。
『The recovery will be broader based, stronger, and faster if monetary policy and fiscal policy both provide continued support to the economy. While monetary policy has helped keep credit available and borrowing costs low, fiscal policy has replaced lost incomes among households experiencing layoffs and businesses and states and localities suffering temporary drops in revenue.』
[外部リンク] review ECB Listens event on 21 October 2020
President Christine Lagarde and Chief Economist Philip R. Lane hosted the first ECB Listens event on 21 October 2020. During the virtual event, they engaged with civil society organisations as part of our ongoing strategy review.
> Watch the event > Have your say via the ECB Listens Portal
てな感じでトップに昨日のイベントの御宣伝が鎮座ましましておられるのですが・・・・・・・
Watch the eventの方を見ますとようつべのECBポータルチャンネルに飛びまして(ちなみにアタクシはチャンネル登録しとるw)昨日行われたイベントの放送が見れる(もともとライブでやってた)のですが、ラガルド総裁とレーン専務理事が登場して、お話したり質問に答えたりみたいな話をしているっぽいのですが、何せこれ再生時間2時間とかいう長丁場なのですいませんちょっと見てません。
『Let us know what you think we should take into consideration as we review our monetary policy strategy. Please share your views by the end of October 2020. The form is available in euro area languages.』
available in euro area languagesって書いてますが英語も大丈夫です(^^)。この画面の「Go」ってなっているところをクリックすると登録画面になって、名前とメールアドレス送るとたぶんフォームに行くためのメールが届くんじゃないかとおもうのですが、そこまでは試していません。
FAQみたいなのもあって、 [外部リンク] Listens Portal: topics and questions
リッチモンド連銀のバーキン総裁が先週講演してたんですけどね、 [外部リンク] Ahead? Learning From The CFO Survey Tom Barkin Oct. 15, 2020 Tom Barkin President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Club of New York
『・Firms are currently navigating extraordinary uncertainty. The decisions they make about hiring, spending and investment will have implications for GDP growth, employment and inflation.』
『・Business sentiment surveys like The CFO Survey help us understand those decisions.』
『・The latest survey shows that CFOs are feeling slightly more optimistic than they were last quarter, although they remain concerned about demand and revenue. Firms also remain cautious about investing.』
『・The survey also suggests that employment will lag spending. Many firms have streamlined their operations in response to the pandemic, and others report that they are concerned about the “availability and quality of labor” despite high unemployment.』
『・CFOs also raised their expectations for wage and price increases in 2021, potentially due to supply chain challenges. If demand were to resurge, we could see pressure on near-term pricing.』
『My experience is different than most of those colleagues. Before coming to the Fed nearly three years ago, I was the chief financial officer (CFO) of a $10 billion institution.』
[外部リンク] Committee Tom Barkin President and Chief Executive Officer
『As I consider the path of the economy, I go back to that experience a lot and try to put myself in the shoes of a firm navigating what has been, and still is, extraordinary uncertainty - around the virus, around fiscal policy and around politics.』
『Earlier this spring, in the immediate wake of the shutdown, I of course would have been thoughtful on hiring and spending. But now, in the midst of developing a budget for next year, how aggressive or conservative would I be on hiring? Or spending? Or capital investments? Would I be pushing to implement a normal January price increase? Would I be stocking the shelves for a strong holiday rebound or trimming inventories to be prudent? Would I be shifting my supply chain out of certain countries? How firms answer these questions has implications for GDP growth, employment and the pace of inflation.』
『To understand how and what firms are deciding, I’ve been helped greatly by my continual outreach in our district, which spans from Maryland to the Carolinas, and by keeping an eye on business sentiment surveys, particularly the Richmond and Atlanta Fed’s partnership with Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business on The CFO Survey.』
『This quarterly survey has tracked business sentiment for nearly 25 years, surveying CFOs and financial decision-makers across firms of all sizes and in all major industries. It gathers their views on the health of their own firms and of the overall economy. It delves into their expectations for hiring, spending, investment and pricing in real time, which is particularly important given the pace of change during the current economic crisis. 』
これはそのCFOサーベイの中身。
・インプリケーションなんだが物価上昇圧力に言及しているのが気に掛かる
という訳で『』の小見出しになる。『Current Results From The CFO Survey』という小見出し。
『We released the results of the latest survey last week. What did it tell us about prospects for the economy?』
『First, CFOs’ expectations are brightening, albeit gradually. Looking at the headline Optimism Index, CFOs are slightly more optimistic about the U.S. economy and their own company’s prospects since our last survey in July. At that time, they estimated GDP growth over the next four quarters would be just 0.6 percent. They anticipate 2.2 percent now. Their expectations for their own revenue growth in 2021 have grown from 7.2 percent to 8.7 percent.』
実はこの人の講演ネタがニュースになった時って普通に先行きに慎重、というような感じのヘッドラインになっていた(例えば[外部リンク] are still worried about demand and revenue but a little less so than in the last quarter. In the open text question that asked about firms’ most pressing concerns, the share that cited flagging demand and declining sales revenue was notably lower. Of course, “slightly more optimistic about revenue returning” doesn’t necessarily mean that revenue growth will be quick. Only about 20 percent of firms that responded anticipated being at pre-COVID-19 levels of revenue any time before the middle of 2021.』
『This matches what I hear in conversations every week with business executives. In sectors that have largely reopened, executives tell me they have found a way to operate safely. And with the personal saving rate still elevated - at 26 percent in the second quarter and 14.1 percent in August, compared to the pre-crisis level of around 8.3 percent - executives see significant consumer spending potential that could bolster demand.』
『Second, we heard that firms still remain cautious about investing. More than 50 percent of firms reported a decreased willingness to spend compared to pre-COVID-19. Only about one-third of CFOs had plans to invest in structures over the next six months. And while more than 60 percent were planning to invest in equipment, most reported investing for maintenance.』
『Those who are not investing primarily cited the uncertainty of the economy and a need to preserve cash. This sense of caution is natural given the breadth of potential paths for the virus, for the government response and consequently, for the economy. This uncertainty effectively increases discount rates.』
でもって投資しない人はキャッシュをリザーブしていますという話。
『Third, CFOs believe employment is likely to lag spending. In July, they expected a 4.2 percent increase in 2021 employment. That has dropped to 2.2 percent despite their increased optimism on revenue. Most businesses, even those less affected by the virus, tell me they have taken the opportunity to streamline their operations. A number of sectors, such as food services, are still operating at less than full capacity. And you’ve seen recently a number of sizable layoff announcements from airlines, theme park operators and even a major insurer.』
『At the same time, hiring is a challenge. Despite the fact that unemployment remains quite elevated at 7.9 percent, there was a large increase in the share of survey respondents citing the “availability and quality of labor” as a pressing concern. This mirrors what I hear in my interviews, particularly in sectors like manufacturing, technology and healthcare. Many of the people who lost their jobs don’t yet have the skills to find employment in a different field. And, at a time when many schools, child care centers and elder care facilities are closed or struggling, we are seeing drops in labor force participation, particularly for prime-age women.』
よって雇用に関してはまだまだ回復するのに時間が掛かるでしょうというお話ですな。
『Finally, the CFOs in the survey see price pressure as increasingly tangible. Their expectations for 2021 wage increases have escalated from 4.4 percent to 5.4 percent, and their expected price increases rose from 2.9 percent to 4.3 percent. I don’t take a lot of signal from the numbers themselves, but the directionality does support my view that supply chain challenges amidst all this uncertainty could put pressure on certain prices.』
『We saw that with food over the summer and with lumber more recently. When I go to big-box retailers, the shelves look a bit bare. If demand were to resurge, say because of a successful vaccine, while supply chains are still stretched, we could see pressure on near-term pricing.』
『Speaking of pricing, the FOMC recently announced changes to its 2012 statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy. We’ve said that in order to anchor inflation expectations at 2 percent, the Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time. As you know, it has modestly lagged that target for some time. In his speech announcing the changes, Chair Powell called this flexible average inflation targeting - the flexibility coming from the lack of a specific formula.2』
『In addition, the Committee said that it will respond to shortfalls of employment from its maximum level; the previous version referenced deviations of employment. In other words, under the new framework, a low level of unemployment alone would not lead to preemptive increases in interest rates.』
『 Finally, the Committee made explicit that meeting our mandate requires a stable financial system.』
『The net of all this is a message that the Fed will aim to keep rates low until we see moderate overshoots of inflation or the development of financial stability risks. Our statement last month reinforced that message, which was supported by our projections in which the median respondent didn’t have a rate increase through 2023. We also continue to engage in significant bond purchases that provide additional accommodation.』
とか申しあげたら直後でこのようにドットチャートの金利見通しに言及しております。
『I remain hopeful that we can put this virus and the related uncertainty behind us. If we can, there is untapped consumption that could give the economy a real lift. My hope then is that reduced uncertainty could get CFOs off the sidelines and propel the virtuous cycle of hiring and investment that moves the economy forward. In the interim, the Fed continues to do what it can to provide support.』
まあちょっと箇条書きを細かくした程度の話が書いてあるのですが、本文2ページ目、PDFの4枚目に『Global Transition Roadmap for LIBOR』ってのがあって何をせえというのが書いてあるのでメモ代わりに引用しておきます。
ロードマップは左に日程があって、そこの時期までにこれやっとけやという話が右に箇条書きという感じになっていまして、最初のが『Firms should already have at a minimum (and if not, should promptly):』とか今出来てないとアカンで〜というのがある。なお訳はアタクシがやっつけでやっているので内容無担保無保証一応ベストエフォートはしているがまあドメドメ爺さんなので勘弁。
『・ Identified and assessed all existing LIBOR exposures, including an understanding of:』
全部のLIBORベースの今あるエクスポージャーを把握した上でこの辺を理解しろとな。
『・ Which LIBOR settings they have a continuing reliance on after end-2021, by currency and tenor.』
2021年末以降に残る取引を確認しろ。
『・ What fallback arrangements those contracts currently have in place.』
LIBORが無くなった時の代替指標に関する契約があるかどうか確認しろ。
『・ Identified other dependencies on LIBOR outside of its use in financial contracts - for example, use in financial modelling, discounting and performance metrics, accounting practices, infrastructure, or non-financial contracts (e.g. in late-payment clauses).』
金融取引以外、例えばリスク管理とかプライスモデルとか会計とかLIBORで使っている所を確認しろ。
『・ Agreed a project plan, including specific timelines and resources to address or remove any LIBOR reliance identified, to transition in advance of the end of 2021 including clear governance arrangements.』
それらの移行に関して日程をちゃんと設定した移行プランを用意しろ。
『・ Understood industry or regulator recommended best practices in relevant jurisdictions, including timelines for intermediate steps in transition ahead of end-2021, and built these into their plans.』
2021年末に向けた移行に対する各法域におけるベストプラクティスを理解して移行の計画せよ。
『・ Assessed what changes may be needed to supporting systems and processes in order to enable use of alternative reference rates in new and existing contracts, including through fallbacks. This may include, for example, treasury management systems and accounting processes.』
『・ Those who currently provide clients with this infrastructure should have developed alternative solutions/offerings to ensure continuity of provision.』
『・ Those who currently provide clients with products that reference LIBOR should have begun to implement a plan for communicating with end-users of LIBOR referencing products maturing beyond end-2021 to ensure they are aware of the transition and the steps being taken to support moving those products to alternative rates.』
2021年末以降に取引や残高の残るプロダクトや取引を顧客(ここの顧客はリテールを念頭に置いていると見られます)と行っている場合、そのユーザーに対して、2021年末のLIBOR移行と、新たな指標金利への移行に対するサポートに関しての説明などを実施する計画を開始しているべき(わざわざshould have begun to implement a planって言ってるんだからとっととやれと言いたいんでしょ)。
[外部リンク] Board Statement on the IBOR Fallbacks Supplement and Protocol October 9, 2020
『ISDA today published a statement from its Board of Directors on the forthcoming launch of the IBOR Fallbacks Supplement and IBOR Fallbacks Protocol.』(ここは直上URL先のISDAサイトから引用)
『“As a result of the work described above, ISDA will launch the IBOR Fallbacks Supplement to the 2006 ISDA Definitions and the ISDA 2020 IBOR Fallbacks Protocol on October 23, 2020. The supplement and the amendments made by the protocol will take effect on January 25, 2021. On this date, all new derivatives contracts that incorporate the 2006 ISDA Definitions and reference one of the covered IBORs will contain the new fallbacks. Derivatives contracts existing as of this date will incorporate the new fallbacks if both counterparties have adhered to the protocol or otherwise bilaterally agreed to include the new fallbacks in their contracts. The protocol will remain open for adherence after this effective date.”』(ここは直上URL先のISDAサイトから引用)
『・ Adhere to the ISDA protocol, subject to individual firms’ usual governance procedures and negotiations with counterparties as necessary. Adherence to the protocol is strongly encouraged and where the protocol is not used, other appropriate arrangements will need to be considered to mitigate risks.』
『・ Providers of cleared and exchange-traded products linked to LIBOR should also ensure that these incorporate equivalent fallback provisions as appropriate.』
『・ Lenders should be in a position to offer non-LIBOR linked loan products to their customers. This could be done either in terms of giving borrowers a choice in terms of the reference rate underlying their loans, or through working with borrowers to include language for conversion by end-2021 for any new, or refinanced, LIBOR referencing loans, for example if systems are not currently ready. 』
[外部リンク] risks losing momentum The recovery since the summer has been uneven, uncertain and incomplete, President Christine Lagarde tells Le Monde. But the options in our monetary policy toolbox have not been exhausted. She also discusses the EU’s recovery plan and the broader impact of the crisis in Europe.
ということでインタビュー内容はこちら。 [外部リンク] with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Marie Charrel and Eric Albert and published on 19 October 2020 19 October 2020
『In response to the slowdown in activity, the ECB launched asset purchases amounting to more than ユーロ1.5 trillion, which is unprecedented. If the crisis gets worse, what more will it be able to do?』
さてその答えですが、
『The options in our toolbox have not been exhausted.』
『If more has to be done, we will do more. On taking up my position, I was told that there was nothing left for me to do, that everything had been done. But that was clearly not the case! We have found ways to stabilise the markets and support the euro area economy.』
『Thanks to the action we took between March and June, we estimate that growth will be 1.3 percentage points higher overall, and inflation 0.8 percentage points higher. According to the ECB’s assessment, we have saved one million jobs in the euro area. So we have acted, and our action has been effective.』
『The pandemic emergency purchase programme, or PEPP for short, which was launched in March, has effectively calmed the markets. But does it actually support the real economy?』
PEPPは市場安定効果があったのは確かだが実体経済に効いたのかよ?とはこれまた厳しい。そのお答え。
『The PEPP has a dual objective:』
dual objectiveとな。
『first, to stabilise the markets, and this objective has been fulfilled;』
それは認める。
『next, to help bring inflation back to its pre-pandemic path, while keeping interest rates low and ensuring that these low rates are passed on to the real economy, which has worked.』
ちょwww「to help bring inflation back to its pre-pandemic path」ってナンジャソラという感じですが。
『Our market actions, in tandem with our programme of long-term loans to the real economy - the well-known targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) - have enabled lending to continue at very low rates. Lending rates for households and firms are around 1.4% to 1.5%. In the euro area, the volume of lending has increased by 7% for firms and 3% for households.』
PEPPの話からいきなりTLTROの効果の話になっているというこの誤魔化しっぷりにワロタ。
・ところでリーマンショック後の緩和政策が結局延々と続いていますが・・・・・というイイシツモンダナー
『Central banks have been taking action for the past ten years and still need to do more. Why is their action becoming less and less effective?』
Central banksと複数形なのもお洒落。
『After the crisis of 2008, fiscal policy was not forthcoming. Central banks were working very much in isolation. This was particularly true in the euro area.』
『But we are now in a different paradigm. Fiscal support is playing its part and is working hand in hand with monetary support. This is unprecedented and will be effective.』
『With the pandemic getting worse, many countries are introducing new restrictions. Against this backdrop, what are your fears for the European economy?』
ちなみに最初の質問がこれね。
『The second wave of the pandemic in Europe, notably in France, and the resulting new restrictions are adding to the uncertainty and weighing on the recovery. Since the rebound we saw over the summer, the recovery has been uneven, uncertain and incomplete and now risks losing momentum. We will keep a close watch on indicators throughout the autumn. Our central scenario foresees euro area GDP declining by an average of 8% in 2020 and assumes partial and localised containment measures. If the situation deteriorates, our projections, which we will revise in December, will obviously be gloomier.』
最後に「If the situation deteriorates, our projections, which we will revise in December, will obviously be gloomier.」ってありますし、そもそもECBのサイトの方で堂々と「Recovery risks losing momentum」ってのがトップにサムネと共にある訳で、これはもう下方修正必至という情勢になっている、ということでありまする。
『Back in March, some people were hoping that the pandemic would be a short-lived shock. That is not the case. What long-term scars might this crisis leave behind?』
次の質問はこの問題長期化するよねどうなのよみたいな質問じゃな。
『Job losses are the most serious. They pose a risk for the social fabric, household income, demand and growth. Governments in the euro area need to be extremely mindful of this. We think it’s essential that the fiscal safety nets that governments put in place during this crisis are not withdrawn too soon.』
今(今朝の時点で)ECBのサイトに行くとこれからネタにするデジタルユーロ発言リンクがトップにあります。 [外部リンク] digital euro for the digital era Introductory statement by Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECON Committee of the European Parliament
『In the provision of money by the sovereign, Europe can boast of a primacy dating back to ancient Greece[2] and the Roman era.[3] 』
どっから話を始めてるんだよという所ですが、古代ギリシャの通貨に関しては日銀にこんなスタッフペーパーがありますのよ(本文は下記リンク先にリンクがあるからそこから飛んでください)。 [外部リンク] search for sound money continued in the “dark” years of the High Middle Ages, despite the resumption of bartering; in the eighth century the monetary reform of Charlemagne spread out in many European countries.[4]』
と「健全な通貨制度」に関する歴史の話が来まして、
『The evolution of money over the centuries and across different regions has reflected changes in economic life, in technology, and in societal beliefs and behaviours. When Marco Polo visited China in the 13th century, he was shocked to discover paper money, which we now know had already been used there for centuries. He called its creator a perfect “alchemist”.[5]』
東方見聞録に記載されている割と有名な(筈の)エピソードキタコレ。
『Today, digitalisation is spreading to all areas of our life, including the way we pay. So I do not expect anyone to find the idea of a digital currency as astonishing as Marco Polo found the idea of paper money.』
『After publishing our report on a digital euro on 2 October, we are now in a phase of listening and experimentation. Our exchange today is a key step in this phase and marks the launch of the ECB’s public consultation.[6] I will come back to this consultation in a moment. But first I will outline the characteristics of a digital euro, as well as the advantages and the challenges it could present. I will also discuss some scenarios that could require the ECB to issue a digital euro.』
確かにECBのサイトには
12 October 2020 PUBLIC CONSULTATION Digital euro: have your say!
Like the euro we already use every day, the design of a digital euro should meet the needs of a broad range of users. That’s why we want to hear the views of the public and of all interested stakeholders on the benefits and challenges of issuing a digital euro and on its possible design.
『We already have an array of choices when it comes to retail payments: central bank money in the form of cash, commercial bank money - for example, digital bank deposits - and non-bank digital money (such as payment cards). What we do not have is a digital currency that is issued by the central bank and that we can use for all our daily transactions, including in e-commerce.』
『A digital euro would fill this gap: it would be an electronic form of central bank money accessible to all citizens and firms - in other words, a digital equivalent of euro banknotes. It would provide costless access to a simple, risk-free and trusted digital means of payment, accepted throughout the euro area. In the digital era, it would preserve the public good that the euro provides to European citizens.』
良い事づくめの話をしているようですが、CBDCが大々的に流通する、ということになりますと、準通貨であるところの銀行預金が以下同文な上に、ここでパネッタさんが言っているように、CBDCが「costless access to a simple, risk-free and trusted digital means of payment」だったりすると、いままで普通に準通貨扱いで皆が使っていた銀行預金とは何ぞや、という深淵なる課題が出ると思うの。
『Compared with existing means of digital payments, a digital euro would provide added value in several ways.』
と更に宣伝しているのだがエエンカイナ?この辺は流しますけど。
『First of all, it could be used for payments anywhere, by anyone and at any time - just like cash in the physical world.』
『Second, it would bring simplicity: a digital euro should be designed to be easy to understand, easy to use and easy to transfer. Regardless of its features or the technology it would be based on, people from all groups in society should be able to use it in their daily lives. This is because making a payment is about more than just exchanging money for goods and services: it is a form of social interaction made possible by money, which has been described as “the most universal and most efficient system of mutual trust ever devised”[7].』
『Finally, a digital euro would increase privacy in digital payments thanks to the involvement of the central bank, which - unlike private suppliers of payment services - has no commercial interests related to consumer data. Ensuring privacy is an essential element of modern democracies and part of our European values. Payments must also respect people’s right to privacy in the digital era, and the design of a digital euro would have to respect this principle. This is a core aspect we will look at - indeed, we have already started exploring possible ways of enhancing privacy.[8]』
3番目の「a digital euro would increase privacy in digital payments」はさすがにこのウソツキがと思ってしまいますが、ってのはこれ結局の所資金の移動が全部中央銀行にガラス張りになってしまう訳ですから、それこそジャパンでも政治家先生とかでデジタル通貨って言ってる皆様政治資金の出入り全部捕捉されますけど大丈夫ですかとか言いたくなったりしますが、まあそこを正面切って発言しないのが中銀クオリティ。
『At the same time, payments in a digital euro - just like any form of payment - would have to respect the rules on countering money laundering, the financing of terrorism and tax evasion. This would enable public authorities to combat any illegal activity more effectively.』
『To summarise, the digital euro would still be a euro, only in digital form.』
見た目はそうだが実は単純な話ではない、と思うのだが。
『It would both shape and promote the digitalisation of payments, while reducing the associated risks. This would in turn support the ongoing digitalisation and modernisation of the European economy.[9]』
てな話をしていますが、次の『Why might we need a digital euro?』という小見出しをすっ飛ばしまして、『How could a digital euro be introduced? Legal considerations and possible challenges』に行きます。
・準通貨を駆逐してしまうリスクについてはサラッと触れていますが多分実務的には一番のアレ
『A digital euro would raise legal, technological and policy questions that we need to address.』
『Let me start with the legal basis. Today, only euro banknotes and coins are legal tender under EU primary law. This means they can be used to pay anywhere in the euro area.[12] Therefore, a key issue discussed in the report is the importance for a digital euro to have legal tender status. Indeed, central bank money is a public good. Euro banknotes fulfil the core function of providing people with risk-free central bank money. It is crucial to ensure that, as a form of public money, a digital euro enjoys universal reach and acceptance, as the legal tender status provides.』
『The introduction of a digital euro also raises technical challenges. Some are related to information technology and cyber risks, which will need to be managed effectively. Others are related to design choices. In this respect, we can leverage the experience gained in past projects that have put us at the frontier of payments.[13]』
『Finally, the design of a digital euro would have to be consistent with key policy objectives.』
さて何でしょう?
『In particular, its design should address the possibility that investors could rapidly move significant amounts of bank deposits into a digital euro, with potential adverse effects on the banking sector and financial stability.』
『We are exploring design strategies to address this and other challenges, and we will assess them in depth. For instance, we could set the necessary incentives through the remuneration of digital euro holdings, to make sure the digital euro is an attractive means of payment, not a form of investment.[14]』
『金融安定理事会(FSB)は、10月9日、「ISDA IBORフォールバック・プロトコルへの広範かつ適時の批准を推奨」(原題:FSB encourages broad and timely adherence to the ISDA IBOR Fallbacks Protocol)と題するプレス・リリースを公表しました。』
[外部リンク] Bank Digital Currency:以下「CBDC」)に対する社会のニーズが急激に高まる可能性もある。日本銀行では、現時点でCBDCを発行する計画はないが、決済システム全体の安定性と効率性を確保する観点から、今後の様々な環境変化に的確に対応できるよう、しっかり準備しておくことが重要であると考えている。こうした認識のもと、今般、個人や企業を含む幅広い主体の利用を想定した「一般利用型CBDC」について、日本銀行の取り組み方針を示すこととした。』
