¡ØCHAIR POWELL. Good afternoon. At the Federal Reserve, we are strongly committed to achieving the monetary policy goals that Congress has given us-maximum employment and price stability. Since the beginning of the pandemic, we have taken forceful actions to provide relief and stability, to ensure that the recovery will be as strong as possible, and to limit lasting damage to the economy.¡Ù
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¡ØToday my colleagues on the FOMC and I kept interest rates near zero and maintained our sizable asset purchases. These measures, along with our strong guidance on interest rates and our balance sheet, will ensure that monetary policy will continue to deliver powerful support to the economy until the recovery is complete.¡Ù
¤³¤³¤â¤Û¤Ü°§»¢¤Ç¤¹¡£¤Ç¤â¤Ã¤Æ¤³¤³¤ÎºÇ¸å¡¢Á°²ó¤â¤½¤¦¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡Öuntil the recovery is complete¡×¤Ã¤Æ¤Î¤ÇÄù¤á¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤·¤Æ¡¢¤È¤Ë¤«¤¯º£¼¡À¯ºö¤Î½¤Àµ(½Ð¸ýÊý¸þ¤Ø¤Î)»þ¤Ë¤Ï¿µ½Å¤Ë¤ä¤ê¤Þ¤Ã¤»¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦¤Î¤ò¶¯Ä´¤¹¤ë¤Î¤¬¤ªÌó«¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤¹¡£
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¡ØThe path of the economy continues to depend significantly on the course of the virus. A resurgence in recent months in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths is causing great hardship for millions of Americans, and is weighing on economic activity and job creation.¡Ù
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¡ØFollowing a sharp rebound in economic activity last summer, the pace of the recovery has moderated in recent months, with the weakness concentrated in the sectors of the economy most adversely affected by the resurgence of the virus and by greater social distancing.¡Ù
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¡ØHousehold spending on services remains low, especially in sectors that typically require people to gather closely, including travel and hospitality. And household spending on goods has moderated following earlier large gains.¡Ù
¡ØBusiness investment and manufacturing production have also picked up. The overall recovery in economic activity since last spring is due in part to federal stimulus payments and expanded unemployment benefits, which have provided essential support to many families and individuals. The recently enacted Coronavirus Response and Relief Act will provide additional support. Overall economic activity remains below its level before the pandemic, and the path ahead remains highly uncertain.¡Ù
¡ØAs with overall economic activity, the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed in recent months. Employment fell by 140,000 in December, as continued gains in many industries were outweighed by significant losses in industries where the resurgence of the virus has weighed further on activity. In particular, the leisure and hospitality sector lost nearly half a million jobs, largely from restaurants and bars. The unemployment rate remained elevated at 6.7 percent in December, and participation in the labor market is notably below pre-pandemic levels.¡Ù
¡ØAlthough there has been much progress in the labor market since the spring, millions of Americans remain out of work. The economic downturn has not fallen equally on all Americans, and those least able to shoulder the burden have been the hardest hit. In particular, the high level of joblessness has been especially severe for lower-wage workers in the service sector and for African Americans and Hispanics. The economic dislocation has upended many lives and created great uncertainty about the future.¡Ù
¡ØThe pandemic has also left a significant imprint on inflation. Following large declines in the spring, consumer prices picked up over the summer but have leveled out more recently. For those sectors that have been most adversely affected by the pandemic, prices remain particularly soft. Overall, on a 12-month basis, inflation remains below our 2 percent longer-run objective.¡Ù
¡ØWhile we should not underestimate the challenges we currently face, several developments point to an improved outlook for later this year. Sufficiently widespread vaccinations would enable us to put the pandemic behind us and return to more normal economic activities. In the meantime, continued observance of social distancing measures and wearing masks will help us reach that goal as soon as possible.¡Ù
¥Ñ¥ó¥Ç¥ß¥Ã¥¯¤ÎÌäÂê¤ÏÅöÁ³¤Ê¤¬¤é²á¾®É¾²Á¤·¤Æ¤Ï¥¢¥«¥ó¡¢¤È¤¤¤¤¤Ê¤¬¤é¤â´ö¤Ä¤«¤Î¿ÊŸ¤¬²æ¡¹¤Îº£Ç¯½ª¤ï¤ê¤Ë¤«¤±¤Æ¤Î¸«Ä̤·¤ò²þÁ±¤µ¤»¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡¢¤È¤¤¤Ã¤Æ¤Þ¤¹(¤À¤«¤é¤ä¤Ã¤Ñ¤êº£²ó¤ÎFOMC¤ò¡Ö·Êµ¤¤Ë¤è¤êÈá´ÑŪ¡×¤È¤«²ò¼á¤·¤Æ¤ë²¿¤È¤«¥¹¥È(Ê̤ËÌÖÍåŪ¤Ë³Îǧ¤·¤Æ¤Ê¤¤¤±¤É¥Á¥Ó¤Ã¤¿¤Î¤Ç¤¦¤Ã¤«¤ê¤¤¤Ä¤â¤è¤ê¤â¿¤á¤Ë²¿¤È¤«¥¹¥È¥³¥á¥ó¥È¤ò³Îǧ¤·¤¿¤¬¡Ö¤è¤êÈá´ÑŪ¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤¿¡×¤Ã¤Æ¥³¥á¥ó¥È¥Þ¥¸¤Ç¾¯¿ô¤À¤±¤É¤¢¤Ã¤¿)¤Î¥³¥á¥ó¥È¤Ï¤Á¤ç¤Ã¤È³°¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤È»×¤¦¡¢¤ÈµÞ¤Ë¸µµ¤¤Ë¤Ê¤ë¥¢¥¿¥¯¥·^^)¤¬¡¢¤½¤Î¼¡¤Î¡ÖIn the meantime¡×¤«¤éÀè¤Îʸ¾Ï¤Ã¤Æ¤³¤ì¥Ð¥¤¥Ç¥óÂçÅýÎΤ¬Ä󾧤·¤Æ¤Æ¥È¥é¥ó¥×Á°ÂçÅýÎΤ¬¼¹Ù¹¤Ë¥¹¥ë¡¼¤·¤Æ¤¤¤¿·ï¤Ç¤¢¤ê¤Þ¤¹¤È¤³¤í¤Î¡Öwearing masks¡×¤¬¥½¡¼¥·¥ã¥ë¥Ç¥£¥¹¥¿¥ó¥·¥ó¥°¤È¶¦¤Ë¡Öwill help us reach that goal as soon as possible¡×¤È¸À¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤¬ÌµÃã¶ìÃãÌ£¤ï¤¤¿¼¤¤¤Ç¤¹¤Í¡£
¡ØSupport from fiscal policy will help households and businesses weather the downturn as well as limit lasting damage to the economy that could otherwise impede the recovery.¡Ù
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¡ØIn addition, as we have seen since last summer, the economy has proved more resilient than expected, in part reflecting the adaptability of households and businesses.¡Ù
¡ØThe Fed¡Çs response to this crisis has been guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people, along with our responsibilities to promote the stability of the financial system.¡Ù
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¡ØToday we unanimously reaffirmed our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, as we typically do each January.¡Ù
[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] 27, 2021 Federal Open Market Committee reaffirms its "Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy" For release at 2:00 p.m. EST
¡ØThe reaffirmed statement is identical to the statement adopted in August 2020 following the Committee's review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices, which included numerous public Fed Listens events around the country. The Committee first adopted a framework statement in 2012.¡Ù(¤³¤³¤À¤±Ä¾¾åURLÀè¤ÎFRB¥ê¥ê¡¼¥¹¤è¤ê°úÍѤ·¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤¹)
¡ØAs we say in that statement, we view maximum employment as a ¡Èbroad-based and inclusive goal.¡É Our ability to achieve maximum employment in the years ahead depends importantly on having longer-term inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent. As the Committee reiterated in today¡Çs policy statement, with inflation running persistently below 2 percent, we will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. We expect to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these employment and inflation outcomes are achieved. With regard to interest rates, we continue to expect it will be appropriate to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee¡Çs assessment of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.¡Ù
¡ØIn addition, we will continue to increase our holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward our maximum-employment and price-stability goals. The increase in our balance sheet since last March has materially eased financial conditions and is providing substantial support to the economy. The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals, and it is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved¡Ù
ÅÓÃæ¤Þ¤Ç¤Ï¤â¤í¤ËÀ¼ÌÀʸ¤ÈÈï¤Ã¤Æ¤Þ¤¹¡£ºÇ¸å¤Ë¡ÖThe economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals¡×±¾¡¹¤È¤Ö¤Ã¤³¤ó¤Ç¤ª¤ê¤Þ¤·¤Æ¡¢Áá´ü¤Î¥Æ¡¼¥Ñ¥ê¥ó¥°´Ñ¬¤ÎÉâ¾å¤òº£¤ÏÉõ°õ¤·¤Æ¤ª¤¤¿¤¤¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦¤ªµ¤»ý¤Á¤¬Îɤ¯ÅÁ¤ï¤Ã¤Æ»²¤ê¤Þ¤¹¤Ê¡£
¡ØOur forward guidance for the federal funds rate along with our balance sheet guidance will ensure that the stance of monetary policy remains highly accommodative as the recovery progresses. Our guidance is outcome based and ties the path of the federal funds rate and the balance sheet to progress toward reaching our employment and inflation goals. Thus, if progress toward our goals were to slow, the guidance would convey our intention to increase policy accommodation through a lower expected path of the federal funds rate and a higher expected path of the balance sheet. Overall, our interest rate and balance sheet tools are providing powerful support to the economy and will continue to do so.¡Ù
¡ØWe have also taken actions to more directly support the flow of credit in the economy, deploying our emergency lending powers to an unprecedented extent, enabled in large part by financial backing and support from Congress and the Treasury. Although the CARES Act facilities are no longer open to new activity, our other facilities remain in place.¡Ù
¡ØTo conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy and to help assure that the recovery from this difficult period will be as robust as possible.¡Ù
[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.¡Ù(º£²ó) ¡ØThe Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.¡Ù(Á°²ó)
¡ØThe COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world.¡Ù(º£²ó) ¡ØThe COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world.¡Ù(Á°²ó)
¡ØThe pace of the recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated in recent months, with weakness concentrated in the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic.¡Ù(º£²ó) ¡ØEconomic activity and employment have continued to recover but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year.¡Ù(Á°²ó)
¤³¤ì¤Ç¤¹¤Í¡¢ºÇ½é¤Î½ê¤Ï¡¢¡ÖThe pace of the recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated in recent months¡×¤Ç¡¢¤½¤é¤Þ¤¢´¶À÷Â貿ÇȤÀ¤«ÃΤé¤ó¤±¤É¥¹¥Æ¥¤¥Ä¤µ¤ó¤Î´¶À÷¤¢¤Ð¤Ð¤Ð¤Ð¡¼¿¶¤ê¤ÏÂçÊѤʤâ¤ó¤Ê¤Î¤Ç¡¢¡Ö·ÐºÑ³èư¤Î²óÉü¤ä¸ÛÍѤβþÁ±¤¬¤³¤³¿ô¤«·î¥â¥Ç¥ì¡¼¥È¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡×¤È²óÉü®Å٤˴ؤ·¤Æ¤Ï°ú¤²¼¤²¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤ó¤Ç¤¹¤±¤É¡¢¤½¤Î¸å¤ËÁ°²ó¤¢¤Ã¤¿¡Öremain well below their levels at the beginning of the year¡×¨¤Á¥Ñ¥ó¥Ç¥ß¥Ã¥¯Á°¤«¤é¸«¤¿¤éÁêÅö¤ÊÄ㤤¿å½à¤Ë¤¢¤ê¤Þ¤¹¤¬¤Ê¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦µ½Ò¤ò¥Ð¥Ã¥µ¥êºï½ü¤·¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤·¤Æ¡¢(ǯ¤¬ÊѤï¤Ã¤¿¤«¤éÆþ¤ì¤ë¤È¤·¤¿¤é¥×¥ì¥Ñ¥ó¥Ç¥ß¥Ã¥¯¥ì¥Ù¥ë¤È¤«¸À¤¦¤ó¤Ç¤·¤ç¤¦)¿å½à¤ÎÄ㤵¤Ë¸ÀµÚ¤·¤Ê¤«¤Ã¤¿¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦¤Î¤¬¤¢¤ê¤Þ¤¹¤¬¡¢¹¹¤Ë¤½¤Î¼¡¤Î½ê¤Ëº£²óÆþ¤Ã¤¿¤Î¤¬¡Öwith weakness concentrated in the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic¡×¤Ç¤·¤Æ¡¢¤³¤ì¤Ï¨¤Á¡Ö·ÐºÑ³èư¤ä¸ÛÍѤμ夵¤¬ÆÃÄꥻ¥¯¥¿¡¼¤Ë½¸Ã椷¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡×¤È¤¤¤¦Ç§¼±¤ò¼¨¤·¤¿¤â¤Î¡£Á°²ó¤Ï¤½¤¦¤¤¤¦µ½Ò¤¬Ìµ¤¯¤Æº£²ó¤³¤Îµ½Ò¤¬Æþ¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦¤³¤È¤Ï¡¢ÊªÀ¨¤¯¥¶¥Ã¥¯¥ê¸À¤Ã¤Æ¤·¤Þ¤¤¤Þ¤¹¤È¡¢FED¤Îǧ¼±¤È¤·¤Æ¡¢¡Ö¥Þ¥¯¥íŪ¤Ë·ÐºÑ¤¬¤¢¤Ð¤Ð¤Ð¤Ð¡¼¡×¤È¤¤¤¦¥¹¥Æ¡¼¥¸¤«¤é¡ÖÆÃÄꥻ¥¯¥¿¡¼¤¬½¸ÃæÅª¤Ë¤¢¤Ð¤Ð¤Ð¤Ð¡¼¡¢Â¨¤Á¥Þ¥¯¥íŪ¤ÊÏäǤϤʤ¯¤Æ¥»¥¯¥¿¡¼¥¹¥Ú¥·¥Õ¥¡¥¤¥É¤ÎÏáפȤ¤¤¦¤³¤È¤Ç¤¹¤Î¤Ç¡¢¤Á¤ç¤Ã¤ÈÂç·¶ºÀ¤Ë¸À¤¨¤Ð¡Ö¥Ñ¥ó¥Ç¥ß¥Ã¥¯¤ÎÌäÂê¤Ï¥Þ¥¯¥íÌäÂ꤫¤é¥ß¥¯¥íÌäÂê¤Ë¥¹¥Æ¡¼¥¸¤¬ÊѤï¤Ã¤¿¡×¤È¤¤¤¦É½¸½¤Ë¤Ê¤ê¤Þ¤¹¤è¤Í(¤Ê¤ª²ñ¸«¤Ï¤Þ¤À¤³¤ì½ñ¤¤¤Æ¤¤¤ë»þÅÀ¤Ç³Îǧ¤·¤Æ¤Ê¤¤¡¢¥ª¡¼¥×¥Ë¥ó¥°¥ê¥Þ¡¼¥¯¤ÏÌܤò±Ë¤¬¤»¤¿¤À¤±¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦¾õÂ֤ǡ¢À¼ÌÀʸ¤À¤±¤ÇȽÃǤ·¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤¹¤Î¤Ç²ñ¸«Åù¤ÇÊ̤ÎÏ䬽ФƤ¿¤é¥µ¡¼¥»¥ó)¡£
¡ØWeaker demand and earlier declines in oil prices have been holding down consumer price inflation.¡Ù(º£²ó) ¡ØWeaker demand and earlier declines in oil prices have been holding down consumer price inflation.¡Ù(Á°²ó)
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¡ØOverall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.¡Ù(º£²ó) ¡ØOverall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.¡Ù(Á°²ó)
¡ØThe path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations.¡Ù(º£²ó) ¡ØThe path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus.¡Ù(Á°²ó)
¡ØThe ongoing public health crisis continues to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook.¡Ù(º£²ó) ¡ØThe ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.¡Ù(Á°²ó)
¤³¤Á¤é¡¢¤Þ¤¢¼çʸ¤Î¼ñ»Ý¼«ÂÎ¤ÏÆ±¤¸(º£¸å¤Î¸ø½°±ÒÀ¸¤Î´íµ¡¾õ¶·¤¬·ÐºÑʪ²Á¸ÛÍѤ˱ƶÁ¥Ç¥«¤¤¤·¡¢¤½¤ì¤¬Àè¹Ô¤¸«Ä̤·¤Î²¼¿¶¤ì¥ê¥¹¥¯¤Ç¤¹¤è)¤Ê¤Î¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢Á°²ó¤Ï¤³¤³¤ÎÉôʬ¤¬¡Öwill continue¡×¤È¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤¿¤Î¤¬¡¢º£²óÉáÄ̤ˡÖcontinues¡×¤È¸½ºß·Á¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Æ¡¢¤½¤Î¤¢¤È¤Î¡Öin the near term¡×¤òºï½ü¤·¡¢¸ø½°±ÒÀ¸¾å¤Î±¾¡¹¤Î½ê¤Ë¤¢¤Ã¤¿¡Öover the medium term¡×¤âºï½ü¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤¹¡£
¡ØThe Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent.¡Ù(º£²ó)
¡ØThe Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent.¡Ù(Á°²ó)
¡ØThe Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.¡Ù(º£²ó)
¡ØThe Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.¡Ù(Á°²ó)
¡ØIn addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.¡Ù(º£²ó)
¡ØIn addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.¡Ù(Á°²ó)
¡ØIn assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.¡Ù(º£²ó)
¡ØIn assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.¡Ù(Á°²ó)
¡ØVoting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.¡Ù(º£²ó)
¡ØVoting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.¡Ù(Á°²ó)
¡ØConduct repurchase agreement operations to support effective policy implementation and the smooth functioning of short-term U.S. dollar funding markets.¡Ù(º£²ó) ¡ØConduct term and overnight repurchase agreement operations to support effective policy implementation and the smooth functioning of short-term U.S. dollar funding markets.¡Ù(Á°²ó)
¤È¤¤¤¦¤³¤È¤Ç¡¢¡Öterm and overnight¡×¤Ã¤Æ¤Î¤¬È´¤±¤Æ¤ë¤Î¤Ç¡¢¤³¤ì¤Ï¥¿¡¼¥à¤ÎRRP¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤Æ¤Ï»Ô¾ì¤¬°ÂÄꤷ¤Æ¤ì¤Ð¤ä¤é¤ó¤Ç¥è¥í¥·¤È¤¤¤¦°ÕÌ£¤«¤¤¤Ê¡¢¤È»×¤¤¤Þ¤·¤¿¡£¾Ü¤·¤¯¤ÏNYÏ¢¶ä¤ò¸«¤Ë¹Ô¤¯¤È½Ð¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤è¤¦¤Êµ¤¤¬¤¹¤ë¤ó¤Ç¤¹¤¬¤½¤³¤Þ¤Ç¿²µ¯¤¤Ç»þ´Ö¤¬Ìµ¤¤¤Î¤Ç¥Ñ¥¹¡£
[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] 13, 2021 Full Employment in the New Monetary Policy Framework Governor Lael Brainard At the Inaugural Mike McCracken Lecture on Full Employment Sponsored by the Canadian Association for Business Economics (via webcast)
¤³¤Î¹Ö±é¡¢¡ØMonetary Policy Framework¡Ù¤Ã¤Æ¤Î¤¬Àè¤Ë¤¢¤Ã¤Æ¡¢¤Þ¤¢¤½¤Ã¤Á¤â¸«¤Æ¤ª¤¤¤¿Êý¤¬Îɤ¤¤«¤â¤·¤ì¤Þ¤»¤ó¤¬¡¢º£¿½¤·¾å¤²¤¿¤è¤¦¤Ê´¶¤¸¤Ç¡¢¥Õ¥ì¡¼¥à¥ï¡¼¥¯¤ÎÃæ¤Ç½ñ¤«¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¥¹¥È¥é¥Æ¥¸¡¼¤Ç¤Ï¤½¤³¤Þ¤Ç²ò¼á¤¹¤ë¤Î¤Ï²¶ÍͲò¼á¤È¤·¤ÆÆ§¤ß¹þ¤ó¤Ç¤ë¤À¤í¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦¸«²ò¤ò´û¤Ë¤´³«ÄĤµ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤¹¤Î¤Ç¡¢¤½¤ì¤ò°ú¤Ã¹þ¤á¤Æ¤¤¤ì¤Ð¥ª¥â¥í¥¤¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¤Þ¤¢¥Ö¥ì¥¤¥Ê¡¼¥É¤µ¤ó¤½¤¦¤¤¤¦¥¿¥Þ¤¸¤ã¤Ê¤¤¤Î¤Ç(¤È¤¤¤¦°ÕÌ£¤Ç¤Ï¤³¤Î°¹¤µ¤ó¤¤¤¤º¬À¤·¤Æ¤ë¤ï¤ÈËèÅٻפ¦)¤½¤³¤Ï²ÚÎï¤Ë¥¹¥ë¡¼¤·¤Æ¸åȾ¤Î¡ØOutlook and Policy¡Ù¤òÇÒÆÉ(¤Á¤ç¤Ã¤È¤À¤±ÀèÆü¤ÎÉôʬ¤òºÆ·Ç¤·¤Á¤ã¤¦¤«¤âÃΤì¤Þ¤»¤ó)¡£
¡ØLate last year, the Committee integrated the framework changes into its monetary policy. The September 2020 FOMC statement adopted outcome-based forward guidance for the policy rate tied to shortfalls from maximum employment and 2 percent average inflation, and the December 2020 FOMC statement adopted outcome-based forward guidance for asset purchases.¡Ù
¤È¤¤¤¦¤Î¤«¤é»Ï¤Þ¤ê¤Þ¤¹¡£¡Öoutcome-based forward guidance for asset purchases¡×¤ÎÏäÏÀèÆü°úÍѤ·¤¿Éôʬ¤Ë¤¢¤ê¤Þ¤¹¤¬¡¢¤¢¤Î¥¬¥¤¥À¥ó¥¹¤ÏAPP¤Ï¡Ö²þÁ±¤Ë¸þ¤±¤¿¸²Ãø¤Ê¿ÊŸ¤¬¤¢¤ë¡×¤Þ¤ÇUST80¤ÈMBS40¥Ó¥ê¥ª¥ó¤ÎÇãÆþ³ÈÂç¥Ú¡¼¥¹¤ò·Ñ³¤È¤Ï½ñ¤¤¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤¹¤¬¡¢ÌÀ¼¨Åª¤Ê¿ôÃͤÏÄ󼨤·¤Æ¤¤¤Ê¤¤¤Î¤Ç¡¢ÅöÁ³¤³¤ì¤Ï¥¸¥ã¥Ã¥¸¥á¥ó¥¿¥ë¤È²ò¼á¤¹¤ë¤â¤Î¤Ê¤Î¤Ç¤¹¤±¤ì¤É¤â¡¢¤½¤Î¥¸¥ã¥Ã¥¸¥á¥ó¥È¤Ë¤ª¤¤¤Æ¡¢¼ÂÀÓÃÍ¥Ù¡¼¥¹¤Ç¤Î¥¹¥ì¥Ã¥·¥ç¥ë¥ÉãÀ®¤ò½êÍ¿¤È¤¹¤ë¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦¤Î¤òÆþ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤¬¥Ö¥ì¥¤¥Ê¡¼¥É¤µ¤ó¤Î¥Ï¥ÈÊý¸þ¤ËƧ¤ß¹þ¤ó¤ÀÏäǤ¹¤Í¡£¤·¤Ä¤³¤¤¤Ç¤¹¤«¤½¤¦¤Ç¤¹¤«¡£
¡ØOur monetary policy approach should support a stronger, broader-based recovery from the deep and disparate damage of COVID-19.¡Ù
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¡ØThe guidance indicates that the Committee expects the policy rate to remain at the lower bound until employment has reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment, and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.¡Ù
¡ØThe forward guidance reflects the important lesson that, with a significantly smaller scope to cut the policy rate than in past recessions, the Committee can provide needed accommodation by making forward commitments on the policy rate that are credible to the public.15 The outcome-based forward guidance communicates how the policy rate will react to the evolution of inflation and employment.¡Ù
¡ØIt makes clear that the timing of liftoff will depend on realized progress toward maximum employment and 2 percent average inflation.¡Ù
¡ØThe FOMC statement notes that monetary policy will remain accommodative after liftoff in order to achieve "inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time."16 Even after economic conditions warrant liftoff, changes in the policy rate are likely to be only gradual to support the inflation makeup strategy and maximum employment.¡Ù
¡ØMarket expectations appear to have adjusted in response to the changes in the FOMC's approach. The Survey of Market Participants conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates a shift in expectations following the release of the new monetary policy framework.17 The median expected rate of unemployment at the time of liftoff moved down from 4.5 percent in the July survey, before the release of the framework, to 4.0 percent in the September and subsequent surveys, following the release of the new framework. Similarly, the median level of 12-month PCE inflation anticipated at the time of liftoff rose from 2 percent in the July survey to 2.3 percent in the September survey and beyond, following the introduction of FAIT.18¡Ù
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¡ØThe forward guidance adopted in December expands the goals of the asset purchases beyond market functioning by establishing qualitative outcome-based criteria tied to realized progress on our employment and inflation goals. This approach integrates the forward guidance on the policy rate and on asset purchases, rather than establishing distinct criteria. The December guidance clarifies that the pandemic asset purchases will continue at least at the current pace until substantial further progress is made on our employment and inflation goals. In assessing substantial further progress, I will be looking for sustained improvements in realized and expected inflation and will examine a range of indicators to assess shortfalls from maximum employment.¡Ù
¡ØIf we look ahead, effective vaccines and additional fiscal support are important positive developments, but the near-term outlook is challenging due to the resurgence of the pandemic, and the economy remains far from our goals. The most recent spending indicators point to a considerable loss of momentum late in the fourth quarter. Sales of consumer durable goods-such as furniture, electronics, and appliances-declined in November, after surging since the spring.19 The rise in cases in November and the associated social distancing resulted in a decline in already low services consumption, with sales at restaurants and bars falling by 4 percent, the largest drop since April. Continued social distancing over the cold winter months is likely to generate a significant drag for spending on services that require personal contact. Additionally, state and local income and sales tax and gaming and energy-related revenues remain depressed, and the most recent payrolls report indicates that state and local governments are having difficulty sustaining employment levels as the virus persists.¡Ù
¡ØInflation remains very low; core PCE inflation ran at 1.4 percent over the 12 months ending in November. Even though some of the survey-based measures of inflation expectations have picked up recently, they still remain close to the lower end of their historical ranges. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have also picked up. While disentangling inflation expectations from liquidity and term premiums is imprecise, staff models attribute a significant portion of the movement in inflation compensation to an increase in expectations, bringing them up from the lows seen in March but still below their historical averages. Inflation may temporarily rise to or above 2 percent on a 12-month basis in a few months when the low March and April price readings from last year fall out of the 12-month calculation, but it will be important to see sustained improvement to meet our average inflation goal.¡Ù
¡ØThe COVID-19 pandemic is exacerbating disparities, and employment remains far from our goals. Last Friday's payroll report highlighted the effects of the resurgence of the virus, with the first overall decline in payrolls since April and a stark 498,000 decline in leisure and hospitality jobs. Overall, payroll employment is still nearly 10 million jobs below its February level. If we adjust the 6.7 percent headline unemployment rate for the decline in participation since February and the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate of misclassification, the unemployment rate would be 10 percent, similar to the peak following the Global Financial Crisis.¡Ù
¡ØThe damage from COVID-19 is concentrated among already challenged groups. Federal Reserve staff analysis indicates that unemployment is likely above 20 percent for workers in the bottom wage quartile, while it has fallen below 5 percent for the top wage quartile.20 Black and Hispanic unemployment stood at 9.9 percent and 9.3 percent, respectively, in December, while White unemployment was 6.0 percent. Labor force participation for prime-age workers has declined, particularly for parents of school-aged children, where the declines have been greater for women than for men, and greater for Black and Hispanic mothers than for White mothers.¡Ù
¡ØThe K-shaped recovery remains highly uneven, with certain sectors and groups experiencing substantial hardship. All told, real gross domestic product likely declined by about 2-1/2 percent in 2020, with the damage concentrated disproportionately among some groups of workers and sectors as well as smaller businesses.¡Ù
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¡ØFortunately, fiscal support looks set to resume playing a vital role in the form of stimulus payments and extended unemployment benefits, particularly for the cash-constrained households that make up a significant fraction of the population. The additional Paycheck Protection Program financing will be a vital support for the many hard-hit small businesses facing continued revenue shortfalls and declining cash balances.¡Ù
¡ØThe damage would have been much greater in the absence of substantial fiscal and monetary support. The unprecedented scale and composition of fiscal support made a vital difference in replacing lost income and supporting demand in the middle of last year and is expected to do so again in the months ahead. The unprecedented speed and breadth of the monetary policy response through an expanded set of tools is supporting lower borrowing costs along the yield curve for households and businesses as well as better inflation and employment outcomes.¡Ù
¤È¤¤¤¦¤³¤È¤Ç¶âÍ»À¯ºö¤ÈºâÀ¯À¯ºö¤Î¥µ¥Ý¡¼¥È¤Ê¤«¤ê¤»¤Ð¥¨¥é¥¤¥³¥Ã¥Á¥ã¤Ç¤·¤¿¤±¤É²æ¡¹¤Î¥µ¥Ý¡¼¥È¤Ç±¾¡¹¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦¤ªÏäǤ¹¤Ê¡¢¤Ç¤Þ¤¢¤·¤é¤Ã¤È¶âÍ»À¯ºö¤Î½ê¤Ç¤Ï¡Ösupporting lower borrowing costs along the yield curve for households and businesses¡×¤ÈÍè¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤Ç¡¢·ÐºÑ¤Îǧ¼±¤¬¤è¤Û¤É¶¯¤¯¤Ê¤ë(¥Þ¥¯¥íŪ²óÉü¤À¤±¤Ç¤Ï¤Ê¤¯K»ú²óÉü¤¸¤ã¤Ê¤¤¤è¡¢¤Ã¤ÆÇ§¼±¤ò¼¨¤¹¤è¤¦¤Ë¤Ê¤ë)¤Þ¤Ç¤Ï¤³¤Î¿ÍÃæ¡¹¥Æ¡¼¥Ñ¡¼¤Ë¼ó¤ò½Ä¤Ë¿¶¤é¤Ê¤µ¤½¤¦¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦¤Î¤ÏÇİ®¤·¤¿¡£
¡ØThe outlook will depend on the path of the virus and vaccinations. While the number of new cases is high and rising, the distribution of multiple effective vaccines is under way.21 Spending on in-person services is likely to return to pre-pandemic levels only as conditions around the virus improve substantially. Most forecasts predict a significant rebound in aggregate spending this year. And there is some risk to the upside if the efficient delivery of vaccines across many jurisdictions ultimately results in a globally synchronized expansion.¡Ù
¤Ç¤â¤Ã¤Æ¸«Ä̤·¤ÎÉôʬ¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢·ë¶É¤Î½ê´¶À÷¾ÉÂкö¤¬¸ú¤¤¤Æ·ÐºÑ³èư¤¬Ìá¤ë¤«¤É¤¦¤«¼¡Âè¤Ç¤¹¤è¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦ÏäǤϤ¢¤ê¤Þ¤¹¤¬¡¢°ì±þ¥Ö¥ì¥¤¥Ê¡¼¥É¤µ¤ó¤Ç¤¹¤é¡ÖAnd there is some risk to the upside¡×¤È¸À¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤Ç¡¢¤Þ¤¢¤½¤¦¤¤¤¦°ÕÌ£¤Ç¤ÏÍø¾å¤²¤ÏÅÆ¤â³Ñ¤È¤·¤Æ¥Æ¡¼¥Ñ¥ê¥ó¥°¤¬ÅöÌÌÁ´Á³µ¤¤Ë¤·¤Ê¤¯¤ÆÎɤ¤¤È¤Þ¤Ç·è¤áÂǤÁ¤¹¤ë¤Î¤Ï¤µ¤¹¤¬¤Ë»þ´ü¾°Áá¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦¤«¤Þ¤¢¤½¤³¤ò¸«¤ÆÊƹñ¤Î¶âÍø¤Ã¤Æµï¾ì½ê¤òÊѤ¨¤¿¤ó¤Ç¤·¤ç¤¦¤±¤É¡£
¡ØWe are strongly committed to achieving our maximum-employment and average-inflation goals. It is too early to say how long it will take. The Committee has stated clearly that it needs to see substantial further progress toward our goals before adjusting purchases. The economy is far away from our goals in terms of both employment and inflation, and even under an optimistic outlook, it will take time to achieve substantial further progress. Given my baseline outlook, I expect that the current pace of purchases will remain appropriate for quite some time. Of course, the outlook is highly uncertain, and forecasts are subject to revisions-a key reason why our forward guidance is outcome based and tied to realized progress on our goals.¡Ù
¡ØThe recovery thus far has been uneven, and the path ahead is uncertain. We remain far from our goals, with core PCE inflation only at 1.4 percent and payroll employment nearly 10 million below its pre-pandemic level. The Committee's forward guidance will help keep borrowing costs low along the yield curve for households and businesses, improve inflation outcomes, and enable the labor market to heal, leading to a broader-based and stronger recovery. The strong support from monetary policy, together with fiscal stimulus, should turn the K-shaped recovery into a broad-based and inclusive recovery that delivers full employment, as Mike McCracken would have wished. Thank you.¡Ù
[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] 13, 2021 Full Employment in the New Monetary Policy Framework Governor Lael Brainard At the Inaugural Mike McCracken Lecture on Full Employment Sponsored by the Canadian Association for Business Economics (via webcast)
¥¬¥¤¥À¥ó¥¹¤ÎÏäϡØOutlook and Policy¡Ù¤Î¿¿¤óÃæ¤¢¤¿¤ê¤«¤é¤Ç¤¹¡£
¡ØThe forward guidance adopted in December expands the goals of the asset purchases beyond market functioning by establishing qualitative outcome-based criteria tied to realized progress on our employment and inflation goals. This approach integrates the forward guidance on the policy rate and on asset purchases, rather than establishing distinct criteria. The December guidance clarifies that the pandemic asset purchases will continue at least at the current pace until substantial further progress is made on our employment and inflation goals. In assessing substantial further progress, I will be looking for sustained improvements in realized and expected inflation and will examine a range of indicators to assess shortfalls from maximum employment.¡Ù
¥¬¥¤¥À¥ó¥¹Ê¸¸À¤Î¡Ösubstantial improvements¡×¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤Æ¤Ï¡Ösustained improvements in realized and expected inflation and will examine a range of indicators to assess shortfalls from maximum employment¡×¤È¸À¤Ã¤Æ¤Þ¤·¤Æ¡¢¼ÂÀÓ¥Ù¡¼¥¹¤Î¿ôÃͤ¬¤«¤Ê¤êÎɤ¯¤Ê¤é¤Ê¤¤¤Èǧ¤á¤ó¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦¥¹¥¿¥ó¥¹¡£¤¿¤À¤·¤³¤ì¤ÏËÜÍèŪ¤Ë¤Ï¤¢¤Î¥¬¥¤¥À¥ó¥¹Ê¸¸À¤Ï¡Ö¥¸¥ã¥Ã¥¸¥á¥ó¥¿¥ë¡×¤Ê¤â¤Î¤Ê¤Î¤Ç¡¢¥Ö¥ì¥¤¥Ê¡¼¥É¤Î²ò¼á¤Ï¼ÂÀÓÃͤˤâɳÉÕ¤±¤Æ¤¤¤ë»þÅÀ¤Ç¥¬¥¤¥À¥ó¥¹¤òʸ»úÄ̤ê²ò¼á¤·¤¿¤â¤Î¤«¤é¤Ï¥Ï¥ÈÊý¸þ¤Ë°ï椷¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤¹¡£
¡ØThe outlook will depend on the path of the virus and vaccinations. While the number of new cases is high and rising, the distribution of multiple effective vaccines is under way.21 Spending on in-person services is likely to return to pre-pandemic levels only as conditions around the virus improve substantially. Most forecasts predict a significant rebound in aggregate spending this year. And there is some risk to the upside if the efficient delivery of vaccines across many jurisdictions ultimately results in a globally synchronized expansion.¡Ù
¡ØWe are strongly committed to achieving our maximum-employment and average-inflation goals. It is too early to say how long it will take. The Committee has stated clearly that it needs to see substantial further progress toward our goals before adjusting purchases. The economy is far away from our goals in terms of both employment and inflation, and even under an optimistic outlook, it will take time to achieve substantial further progress.¡Ù
¡ØGiven my baseline outlook, I expect that the current pace of purchases will remain appropriate for quite some time. Of course, the outlook is highly uncertain, and forecasts are subject to revisions-a key reason why our forward guidance is outcome based and tied to realized progress on our goals.¡Ù
¥Ù¡¼¥¹¥é¥¤¥ó¥·¥Ê¥ê¥ª¤Ç¤Ï¡Öfor quite some time¡×¤Ë¸½¾õ¤ÎÇãÆþ¥Ú¡¼¥¹¤ò°Ý»ý¤¹¤ë¤Î¤¬Å¬ÀÚ¡£
¡ØThe recovery thus far has been uneven, and the path ahead is uncertain. We remain far from our goals, with core PCE inflation only at 1.4 percent and payroll employment nearly 10 million below its pre-pandemic level.¡Ù
¡ØThe Committee's forward guidance will help keep borrowing costs low along the yield curve for households and businesses, improve inflation outcomes, and enable the labor market to heal, leading to a broader-based and stronger recovery. The strong support from monetary policy, together with fiscal stimulus, should turn the K-shaped recovery into a broad-based and inclusive recovery that delivers full employment, as Mike McCracken would have wished. Thank you.¡Ù
ËèÅÙ¤ª¤Ê¤¸¤ß¤Î¤³¤ì [³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] Speak: Remarks by Federal Open Market Committee Participants About FOMC Speak
¤Î¡ØRecent Public Remarks¡Ù¤ò¸«¤Þ¤¹¤È¤³¤³¤ËÍè¤Æ¤Þ¤¿µÞ¤Ë³§¤µ¤ó¤¬Ãý¤ê¤À¤·¤Æ¤Þ¤·¤Æ¡£¤¤¤ä¤ªÁ°¤éʬ»¶¤·¤ÆÏäò¤·¤í¤ä¤È¾¡¼ê¤Ë»×¤¤¤Þ¤¹¤¬¡¢¤Þ¤¢¤³¤ÎÊդ꤫¤é¥Û¥¤¥Û¥¤¤È¥Í¥¿¤ò¸«¤Æ¤ß¤è¤¦¤¸¤ã¤Ê¤¤¤Î¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦´¶¤¸¤Ç¤¹¡£
¡ØSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard discussed the U.S. economic outlook, monetary policy, fiscal policy and inflation during a Wall Street Journal Newsmakers Live Q&A.¡Ù
¡ØBullard noted that the report of December job losses didn¡Çt change his overall economic outlook because vaccines have come online sooner than he would have expected. He said that the outlook for 2021 remains quite strong, and he expects growth to be well above trend and unemployment to come down below 5%.¡Ù
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¡ØHe also described his view that the initial fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 crisis was designed for a larger economic shock than what has occurred. In addition, he noted that the level of real disposable income for 2020 suggests the policy of trying to keep disrupted households whole has been successful.¡Ù
¡ØInflation looks set to move somewhat higher, Bullard said. Market-based inflation expectations have moved up, and a lot of the ingredients for inflation seem to be in place, he noted.¡Ù
¡ØHe also discussed the Fed¡Çs purchases of U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities, noting that the FOMC is waiting for further substantial progress toward their maximum employment and price stability goals.¡Ù
»ñ»ºÇãÆþ¤Ë´Ø¤·¤Æ¤Ï¸½¾õ¤Ç¤Ï¡ÖFOMC is waiting for further substantial progress¡×¤À¤È¤Îǧ¼±¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢
¡Ø¡ÈThe idea is that we want to get through the pandemic and sort of see where the dust settles, and then we¡Çll be able to think about where to go with balance sheet policy,¡É Bullard said.¡Ù
¤Ç¤â¤Ã¤Æ¥Ö¥é¡¼¥É¤µ¤ó¤½¤ÎÁ°¤Ë¤âÏäò¤·¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤·¤Æ¡¢ [³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] Louis Fed's Bullard Presents "The Pandemic Endgame Begins" 1/7/2021
¤³¤ì¤Ï¤Þ¤¿°ÒÀª¤ÎÎɤ¤Âê̾¡£Îã¤Ë¤è¤Ã¤Æ¥×¥ì¥¼¥ó¥Æ¡¼¥·¥ç¥ó»æ¼Çµï¤¬¤¢¤Ã¤Æ¤³¤ÎÀâÌÀʸ¤Ã¤Æ´¶¤¸¤Ë¤Ê¤ê¤Þ¤¹¡£ ¥×¥ì¥¼¥ó»æ¼Çµï¤Ï¤³¤Á¤é¡£(URLŤ¤¤«¤éÅÓÃæ¤Î½ê¤Þ¤Ç¤Ç¥Ï¥¤¥Ñ¡¼¥ê¥ó¥¯¤·¤Þ¤·¤¿) [³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] LOUIS - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard presented ¡ÈThe Pandemic Endgame Begins¡É via webinar for the Little Rock Regional Chamber on Thursday.¡Ù
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¡ØDuring his presentation, Bullard said that although the COVID-19 pandemic has worsened in the U.S. and Europe, the arrival of vaccines suggests the health crisis will wane in the months ahead.¡Ù
¡ØIn addition, he said, ¡ÈIn the U.S., monetary and fiscal policies have been especially aggressive, and the associated macroeconomic outcomes have been considerably better than originally expected at the pandemic onset.¡É He noted that aggregate resources available to fund consumption continue to be exceptionally high, suggesting continued recovery in the first half of 2021.¡Ù
¡Ø¡ÈSome downside risk remains, and continued execution of a granular, risk-based health policy will be critical in the months ahead,¡É he said.¡Ù
¤Þ¤À¥À¥¦¥ó¥µ¥¤¥É¥ê¥¹¥¯¤Ï¤¢¤ë¤Î¤Çº£¸å¿ô¥«·î¤Ï¥ê¥¹¥¯¤òÃí°Õ¤·¤¿¸ø½°±ÒÀ¸À¯ºö¤¬¥¥â¤Ç¤Ã¤»¡¢¤ÈÍè¤Þ¤·¤Æ¡¢ºÇ½é¤Î¾®¸«½Ð¤·¤¬¡ØHealth Crisis Worsens but Is Expected to Wane¡Ù¤Ç¤¹¡£
¡ØRegarding management of the global health crisis, Bullard noted that daily fatalities per 100,000 population have increased in both Europe and the U.S. He added that East Asia and Pacific countries continue to report daily fatalities per 100,000 population that are an order of magnitude lower than in the U.S. and Europe.¡Ù
¡ØBullard noted that vaccines will help bring the crisis to a close. ¡ÈVaccine distribution is being directed toward those most vulnerable to COVID-19, suggesting declining fatalities in the months ahead,¡É he said.¡Ù
¡ØHe observed that business restrictions today aren¡Çt too different from what they have been in recent months in the U.S., as suggested by the University of Oxford¡Çs stringency index. Renewed increases in infections in recent months are likely coming more from personal interactions at the household level, he added.¡Ù
¼¡¤Î¾®¸«½Ð¤·¤¬¡ØEffective Monetary and Fiscal Policies¡Ù¤Ç¤¹¡£
¡ØBullard said that U.S. monetary and fiscal policies have been exceptionally effective during the crisis.¡Ù
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¡ØMonetary policy included lowering the policy rate to the effective lower bound and providing liquidity to financial markets through a variety of programs supported by the U.S. Treasury, he noted.¡Ù
¡Ø¡ÈThe backstop programs stemmed an incipient financial crisis during the March-April time frame, to the point where current levels of financial stress are at pre-pandemic levels,¡É he said.¡Ù
¡ØOn U.S. fiscal policy in the first 11 months of 2020, Bullard noted that the total value of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act along with additional legislation would be about $3.148 trillion.¡Ù
¡ØHe pointed out that the shortfall in 2020 real GDP, according to forecasters, will likely be closer to 2%-2.5%, or about $400 billion to $500 billion.¡Ù
¡ØHe also noted that the fiscal response drove personal income up to an all-time high in the second quarter, which is the opposite of what normally happens in a recession.¡Ù
¡ØIn addition, the Consolidated Appropriation Act of 2021, which was signed into law Dec. 27, includes an additional $900 billion in pandemic relief, he pointed out.¡Ù
¡ØU.S. Recovery Far Ahead of Schedule¡Ù¤È¤¤¤¦¾®¸«½Ð¤·¤Ë»²¤ê¤Þ¤¹¡£
¡ØCurrent macroeconomic data suggest that April will prove to be the lowest point of the crisis, provided the remainder of the crisis can be managed effectively, Bullard noted. He pointed out that third-quarter real GDP growth, at an annualized rate of 33.4%, was the fastest on record. He added that fourth-quarter real GDP appears to have grown at an above-trend pace, according to forecasts.¡Ù
¡ØBullard also noted that employment has rebounded more rapidly than expected, supporting the idea that many layoffs were temporary as firms adjusted to the pandemic. ¡ÈAs a result, the U.S. labor market recovery is four years ahead of where it was following the 2007-09 recession,¡É he said.¡Ù
¡ØBullard then discussed inflation expectations. ¡ÈMarket-based inflation expectations have recovered from lows reached during March 2020,¡É he said.¡Ù
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¡ØThe Federal Open Market Committee¡Çs new policy framework, which was announced in Fed Chair Jerome Powell¡Çs 2020 Jackson Hole speech, has likely encouraged some of this movement, Bullard explained.¡Ù
¡ØHe noted that TIPS-based breakeven inflation, which is based on consumer price index (CPI) inflation measures, could move considerably higher and still be consistent with a personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) inflation outcome modestly above the Fed¡Çs 2% inflation target.¡Ù
(URLŤ¤¤«¤éÅÓÃæ¤Î½ê¤Þ¤Ç¤Ç¥Ï¥¤¥Ñ¡¼¥ê¥ó¥¯¤·¤Þ¤·¤¿) [³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] Economic Outlook - Optimism Despite the Challenges Ahead By Eric S. Rosengren January 12, 2021
ËÜ¥Á¥ã¥ó¤Î¹Ö±é¤Ï¤³¤Á¤é¤Ç¤¹¡£ [³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] takeaways from Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren¡Çs Jan. 12, 2021 remarks¡Ù
¡Ø1.Takeaway: We enter 2021 with some optimism about the economy. Two effective vaccines for COVID-19 are already being distributed, and we should see broader economic recovery in the medium term.
Excerpt: ¡È¡Äas the new year dawns, it seems likely that the public health crisis that has inflicted so much damage - on individuals, families, businesses, and the economy generally - will dissipate over the course of this year.¡É¡Ù
¡Ø2.Takeaway: The economic outlook remains intertwined with that of virus, and the path to stabilizing the economy hinges on first getting COVID under control.
Excerpt: ¡È¡Ärecent indicators suggest near-term problems stemming from elevated infections and persistent public health concerns. So clearly, the near-term recovery is highly dependent on rapid, widespread vaccination. Unfortunately, to date, the inoculation rate has been disappointing.¡É¡Ù
¡Ø3.Takeaway: There are several reasons for optimism about the medium-term outlook, including favorable financial conditions, rising asset prices, and a resilient housing market. Meanwhile, household savings remain elevated.
Excerpt: ¡È¡Äfor those whose incomes were not interrupted (for example, those whose jobs were conducive to working from home, and whose industries were not stalled by the pandemic) there is significant capacity to make expenditures once the pandemic is over. Because consumption is such a large part of the economy, in the second half of the year if vaccinations are widespread, we are likely to see a significant pick up in consumption.¡É¡Ù
²¿¤«¥Û¥ó¥Þ¥«¥¤¥Ê¤Ã¤Æ´¶¤¸¤Ç¤Ï¤¢¤ê¤Þ¤¹¤¬¡¢¡ÖThere are several reasons for optimism about the medium-term outlook¡×¤È¤¤¤¦Ãæ¤Ç¡¢²È·×¤ÎÃùÃßΨ¤¬°ú¤¤¢¤¬¤Ã¤¿¤Þ¤Þ¤Î·ï¤Ë¤Ä¤¤¤Æ¡¢¡ÖÆÃ¤Ë¼ýÆþ¤¬Àڤ줿Ìõ¤Ç¤â¤Ê¤¤²È·×¤Ë¤ª¤¤¤Æ¤¬¤½¤¦¤À¤¬¡¢¥Ñ¥ó¥Ç¥ß¥Ã¥¯¤¬½ªÎ»¤¹¤ì¤Ð¤³¤ì¤é¤ÎÃùÃߤ¬¾ÃÈñ;ÃϤȤʤäưìÃʤȾÃÈñ¤ò²¡¤·¾å¤²¤ë¡×¤È¤¤¤¦¥¨¥é¥¤Àª¤¤¤Ç³Ú´ÑŪ¤ÊÏä˸«¤¨¤ë¤ó¤Ç¤¹¤±¤É¡¢¤Þ¤¢±«¸ø¤À¤Ã¤¿¤é¤½¤¦¤Ê¤Î¤«¤â¤Í¡¢¤È¤Ï»×¤¤¤Þ¤·¤¿¡£
¡Ø4.Takeaway: Despite these optimistic signs, the pandemic is likely to continue to be a problem for public health and the economy in the first half of 2021, until widespread vaccinations take hold. Policymakers must be mindful of the deep pain still occurring in many segments of the economy.
Excerpt: ¡È¡Ämany of the economic problems caused by the pandemic have actually been deferred, to date - for example, problems in commercial real estate and the bank loans tied to such property are likely to only be fully revealed later this year. ¡Ä Importantly, the disparate economic outcomes we have seen during the pandemic have further highlighted the problems of income inequality that remain a significant challenge.¡É¡Ù
¡Ø5.Takeaway: The economy¡Çs resilience can be credited in part to significant fiscal support, and monetary policy actions that reduced interest rates to their lower limit. Support also came from the variety of Fed emergency lending facilities, including the Main Street Lending Program, which was operated from the Boston Fed.
Excerpt: ¡ÈPolicymakers must continue to find ways to support those¡Ädisproportionately and severely impacted by the pandemic. ¡Ä My personal preference would have been to continue the (Main Street) program through the first half of 2021. The program filled a hole often left unaddressed - support for medium-sized businesses. ¡Ä The program extended more than $16.5 billion in lending to over 1,800 companies. ¡Ä The program settled just under 650 loans in the months from July to November, then over 1,150 loans in December alone ¡Ä with settled loans across 49 states and two U.S. territories. Looking at the industries utilizing the program¡Çs loans suggests some unsurprising areas of need, given the pandemic¡Çs toll on certain industries where social distancing is challenging.¡É¡Ù
¡Ø6.Takeaway: Despite the challenges, the Main Street program provided helpful financing and showed the feasibility of marshalling lenders and the public sector to assist hard-to-reach businesses that can survive with the support of a bridge to better times. But, were certain tweaks permitted, the program could have been more impactful.
Excerpt: ¡ÈFirst, with less focus on mitigation of potential loss to the Treasury, much more credit would have been made available. Second, designing the program to have less legal and operational complexity, and structuring the banks¡Ç role differently - for example, as an opportunity to earn fees as long as the loan performed, rather than a 5 percent participation - may have increased the attractiveness of the program for banks. Finally, longer terms and greater ability to refinance would have provided support to medium-sized businesses more akin to what was available to larger companies...¡Ù
[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] of the Federal Open Market Committee December 15-16, 2020 A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held by videoconference on Tuesday, December 15, 2020, at 1:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, December 16, 2020, at 9:00 a.m.1
¤¤¤Ä¤â¤Î¤è¤¦¤Ë¡ØParticipants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook¡Ù¤ò¸«¤ë¤Î¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢º£Æü¤Ï¿²µ¯¤¥¤¥ó¥¹¥¿¥ó¥ÈÆÉ¤ß¤Ç¤Ï¤Ê¤¤¤Î¤Ç¡¢¤µ¤¹¤¬¤Ë¸ì½ç¤ÇÆÉ¤à¤È¤·¤Þ¤¹¤¬¡¢Á°È¾¤¬·ÐºÑʪ²Á¾ðÀª¤Î¥Ñ¡¼¥È¡¢¸åȾ¤¬À¯ºö±¿±Ä¤Î¥Ñ¡¼¥È¤Ë¤Ê¤ê¤Þ¤¹¤Î¤Ç¡¢Àè¤Ë¸åȾ¤«¤é»²¤ê¤Þ¤¹¡£¥Ñ¥é¥°¥é¥Õ¤Ç¸À¤¦¤È10¥Ñ¥é¥°¥é¥ÕÌܤ«¤é¤Ë¤Ê¤ê¤Þ¤¹¡£
¡ØIn their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants reaffirmed the Federal Reserve's commitment to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy during this challenging time, thereby promoting the Committee's statutory goals of maximum employment and price stability.¡Ù
¡ØParticipants agreed that the path of the economy would depend significantly on the course of the virus and that the ongoing public health crisis would continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term. Participants noted that, with the pandemic worsening across the country, the expansion would likely slow in coming months.¡Ù
¡ØThat said, participants agreed that the path ahead remained highly uncertain and that the economy remained far from the Committee's longer-run goals.¡Ù
¡ØIn light of this assessment, all participants judged that maintaining an accommodative stance of monetary policy was essential to foster economic recovery and to achieve an average inflation rate of 2 percent over time.¡Ù
¡ØAll participants supported enhancing the Committee's guidance on asset purchases at this meeting and, in particular, adopting qualitative, outcome-based guidance indicating that increases in asset holdings would continue, with purchases of Treasury securities of at least $80 billion per month and of agency MBS of at least $40 billion per month, until substantial further progress has been made toward reaching the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.¡Ù
¡ØIn their discussions of this change, participants noted that the new guidance regarding balance sheet policy brought the statement's references to purchases into better alignment with the Committee's outcome-based guidance on the federal funds rate, offered more clarity about the role played by the asset purchase program in providing accommodation to meet the Committee's economic goals, and underscored the responsiveness of balance sheet policy to unanticipated economic developments.¡Ù
¤Ç¤â¤Ã¤Æ¤³¤Î¿·¤·¤¤APP¤Î¥¬¥¤¥À¥ó¥¹(¸þ¤³¤¦¿ô¥«·î¢ª¥Þ¥ó¥Ç¡¼¥ÈãÀ®¤Ë¸þ¤±¤¿·ÐºÑʪ²Á¾ðÀª¤Î¹¹¤Ê¤ë¸²Ãø¤Ê²þÁ±¤¬¹Ô¤ï¤ì¤ë¤Þ¤Ç)¤Ë´Ø¤·¤Æ¤Ï¡¢FF¶âÍø¤Î¥¢¥¦¥È¥«¥à¥Ù¡¼¥¹¤Î¥¬¥¤¥À¥ó¥¹¤ËÎɤ¤±ÉÍÜʬ¤Ë¤Ê¤ê¤Þ¤Ã¤»(¼ê¸µ¤Î¥Ç¥¤¥ê¡¼¥³¥ó¥µ¥¤¥¹¤À¤Èalignment=±ÉÍܤȤ«ÍÜʬ¤È¤«¤Ç¤·¤¿¤ó¤Ç)¤È¤Î»ö¤Ç¤´¤¶¤¤¤Þ¤¹¤¬¡¢¡Öoffered more clarity¡×¤È¤«Æþ¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Æ¡¢Íפϡ֥ޥó¥Ç¡¼¥È¿å½à¤ÎãÀ®¤Ë¸þ¤±¤Æ¶âÍ»´ËÏÂÀ¯ºö¤ò·Ñ³¤·¤Þ¤¹¤è¡×¤È¤¤¤¦¤Î¤òÌÀ³Î¤Ë¤·¤Þ¤·¤¿¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦¤è¤¦¤Ê´¶¤¸¡£
¡ØA few participants stressed that all of the Committee's policy tools were now well positioned to respond to the evolution of the economy. For example, if progress toward the Committee's goals proved slower than anticipated, the new guidance relayed the Committee's intention to respond by increasing monetary policy accommodation through maintaining the current level of the target range of the federal funds rate for longer and raising the expected path of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.¡Ù
¡ØA couple of participants remarked that, against this background, it was important to convey to the public that the federal funds rate remained the Committee's primary policy tool.¡Ù
¡ØA number of participants discussed considerations related to determining the eventual attainment of "substantial further progress" toward reaching the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.¡Ù
¤½¤é¤½¤¦¤è¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦´¶¤¸¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢APP¤Î¥¬¥¤¥À¥ó¥¹Ê¸¸À¤Ë¤ª¤±¤ë "substantial further progress"¤È¤Ï²¿¤¾¤ä¤È¤¤¤¦ÏÃ¥¥¿¥³¥ì¤Ê¤Î¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢
¡ØParticipants commented that this judgment would be broad, qualitative, and not based on specific numerical criteria or thresholds.¡Ù
¡ØVarious participants noted the importance of the Committee clearly communicating its assessment of actual and expected progress toward its longer-run goals well in advance of the time when it could be judged substantial enough to warrant a change in the pace of purchases.¡Ù
¡¦¡¦¡¦¡¦¡¦¡¦¤È¤¤¤¦¤³¤È¤Ç "substantial further progress"¤Î¥³¡¼¥Ê¡¼¤¬½ª¤ï¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤·¤Æ¡¢·ë¶É¤Î½ê¤³¤Î¥¡¼¥ï¡¼¥É¤Ë´Ø¤·¤Æ¤Ï¡ÖÄêÀŪÁí¹çȽÃǡפȤ¤¤¦¤¤¤¶¤È¤Ê¤Ã¤¿¤é²¿¤Ç¤â¤¢¤ê¤ÊÄêµÁ(¤È¤â¸À¤¤Æñ¤¤)¤Ë²¡¤·¹þ¤Þ¤ì¤¿¤Þ¤Þ¤ÇÌÀ³Î²½¤Ï¤µ¤ì¤Ê¤¤¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦»ö¤Ë¤Ê¤ê¤Þ¤·¤¿¡£¤Þ¤¢¤½¤ÎÊý¤¬¾Íè¤ä¤ê¤ä¤¹¤¤¤Î¤Ï»ö¼Â¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¼ÂºÝ¤Ë·ÐºÑʪ²Á¾ðÀª¤¬²þÁ±¤·¤Æ¤¤¿¾ì¹ç¤Ë»Ô¾ì¤¬ÀèÁö¤ë¾ì¹ç¤Ë¤³¤Î¿¿²Á¤¬Ìä¤ï¤ì¤ë¤³¤È¤Ë¤Ê¤ê¤½¤¦¤Ç¤¹¤±¤É¡¢¤Ê¤ó¤«»Ô¾ì¤Á¤ã¤ó¤â¤½¤ÎÊդϥ³¥ó¥»¥ó¥µ¥¹¸Ç¤Þ¤Ã¤ÆÌµ¤µ¤½¤¦¤Ç¡¢·ÐºÑʪ²Á¾ðÀª¤¬¹¥Ä´¤Ë¿ä°Ü¤¹¤ë¤Ê¤éÁá¤á¤Ë¥¬¥¹È´¤¤ò¤·¤¿Êý¤¬Îɤµ¤²¤Êµ¤¤â¤·¤Þ¤¹¤±¤É¤É¤¦¤Ç¤·¤ç¤¦¤«¤Í¡£
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¡ØRegarding the decisions on the pace and composition of the Committee's asset purchases, all participants judged that it would be appropriate to continue those purchases at least at the current pace, and nearly all favored maintaining the current composition of purchases, although a couple of participants indicated that they were open to weighting purchases of Treasury securities toward longer maturities.¡Ù
¡ØParticipants generally judged that the asset purchase program as structured was providing very significant policy accommodation.¡Ù
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¡ØSome participants noted that the Committee could consider future adjustments to its asset purchases-such as increasing the pace of securities purchases or weighting purchases of Treasury securities toward those that had longer remaining maturities-if such adjustments were deemed appropriate to support the attainment of the Committee's objectives.¡Ù
¡ØA few participants underlined the importance of continuing to evaluate the balance of costs and risks associated with asset purchases against the benefits arising from purchases.¡Ù
¡ØParticipants shared their views on the appropriate evolution of asset purchases once substantial further progress had been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.¡Ù
¡Ösubstantial further progress¡×¤¬µ¯¤³¤Ã¤¿¾ì¹ç¤ÎÏÃ¥¥¿¥³¥ì!
¡ØA number of participants noted that, once such progress had been attained, a gradual tapering of purchases could begin and the process thereafter could generally follow a sequence similar to the one implemented during the large-scale purchase program in 2013 and 2014.¡Ù
¤½¤Î¾ì¹ç¤Ï´Ë¤ä¤«¤Ê¥Æ¡¼¥Ñ¥ê¥ó¥°¤ò³«»Ï¤·¤Æ¡¢¤½¤Î¸å¤Ï2013¡Á2014¤Î¤è¤¦¤Ê¥×¥í¥»¥¹¤ò¼è¤ë¤Î¤¬Å¬ÀڤǤ¢¤ë¡¢¤È²¿¿Í¤«(A number of)¤Î»²²Ã¼Ô¤¬»ØÅ¦¤·¤¿¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦¤ªÞ¯Íî¤Ê¤â¤Î¤¬¤¢¤ê¤Þ¤·¤Æ¡¢¤Þ¤¢¤µ¤Ã¤¤Î½ê¤Ç¤â¤Á¤ç¤Ã¤È¤¢¤ê¤Þ¤·¤¿¤¬¤ï¤¶¤ï¤¶¥Ñ¥é¥°¥é¥Õ¤Ë¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤¬¤ªÃãÌܤǤ¹¤Í¡£
[³°Éô¥ê¥ó¥¯] 08, 2021 U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics Council on Foreign Relations, New York, New York (via webcast)
ºÇ½é¤Î¥³¡¼¥Ê¡¼¤¬¡ØCurrent Economic Situation and Outlook¡Ù¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢ºÇ½é¤¬¤ª¤â¤à¤í¤Ë¡¢
¡ØIn the second quarter of last year, the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic and the mitigation efforts put in place to contain it delivered the most severe blow to the U.S. economy since the Great Depression. ¡Ù
¡ØWhile gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter downshifted from the once-in-a-century 33 percent annualized rate of growth reported in the third quarter, it is clear that since the spring of 2020, the economy has turned out to be more resilient in adapting to the virus, and more responsive to monetary and fiscal policy support, than many predicted.¡Ù
¤È¤¤¤¦¤³¤È¤Ç¡¢·ÐºÑ¤Ï¡Öthe economy has turned out to be more resilient in adapting to the virus, and more responsive to monetary and fiscal policy support, than many predicted.¡×¤È¶Ä¤»¤Ç¤·¤Æ¡¢¤Þ¤¢ÂçÂκǶáFED¤ÎÃæ¿´Åª¤Ê¸«²ò¤È¤·¤Æ½Ð¤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤â¤Î¤ÈƱ¤¸(¤Ê¤Î¤Ï¥¯¥é¥ê¥À¤Ê¤Î¤ÇÅö¤¿¤êÁ°¤Ç¤¹¤¬)¤Ç¤¢¤ë¤³¤È¤ò³Îǧ¤·¤Þ¤·¤¿¤¬¡¢¤³¤³¤Ç¤Î¸À¤¤Êý¤Ç¤Û¤Û¡¼¤È»×¤Ã¤¿¤Î¤Ï¡Ö·ÐºÑ¤¬¥ì¥¸¥ê¥¢¥ó¥È¡×¤È¤¤¤¦¤Î¤â¤µ¤ë¤³¤È¤Ê¤¬¤é¡Ö¶âÍ»À¯ºö¤äºâÀ¯À¯ºö¤Ë¤è¤ë¥µ¥Ý¡¼¥È¤ËÂФ¹¤ë·ÐºÑ¤ÎÈ¿±þ¤·¤ä¤¹¤µ¤¬¡¢Â¿¤¯¤Î¿Í㤬¸«¤Æ¤¤¤¿¤è¤ê¤âÂ礤¤¡×¤È¤¤¤¦Éôʬ¤«¤Ê¡¢¤È»×¤¤¤Þ¤·¤¿(¸Ä¿Í¤Î´¶ÁۤǤ¹)¡£
¡ØIndeed, it is worth highlighting that in the baseline projections of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) summarized in the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), most of my colleagues and I revised up our outlook for the economy over the medium term, projecting a relatively rapid return to levels of employment and inflation consistent with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate as compared with the recovery from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).2¡Ù
¡ØIn particular, the median FOMC participant projects that by the end of 2023-a little less than three years from now-the unemployment rate will have fallen below 4 percent, and PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation will have returned to 2 percent. Following the GFC, it took more than eight years for employment and inflation to return to similar mandate-consistent levels.¡Ù
¤ó¤ÊÌõ¤Ç12·îFOMC¤ÎSEP¤ÎÏäˤʤë¤ó¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¤³¤³¤Ï¤½¤Î·ë²Ì¤ÎÏäò¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤Ç¤¹¤±¤ì¤É¤â¡¢¡Öit is worth highlighting that¡Á¡×¤«¤é¤Î¡Ömost of my colleagues and I revised up our outlook for the economy¡×¤È¤¤¤¦¤³¤È¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¤½¤Î¼¡¤Ë¡Öprojecting a relatively rapid return to levels of employment and inflation¡Á¡×¤Ã¤Æ¤³¤È¤Ç¡¢Á°²ó¤Î¶âÍ»´íµ¡¸å¤Î²óÉü¤Ê¤ó¤¾¤Ï¥á¤Ç¤Ï¤Ê¤¤Àª¤¤¤Ç¤Î¥Þ¥ó¥Ç¡¼¥È¿å½à¤Ø¤ÎÌá¤ê¤ò¸«¹þ¤ó¤Ç¤ª¤ê¤Þ¤¹¡¢¤ÈÍè¤Æ¤ª¤ê¤Þ¤¹¡£¤¸¤ã¤¢²¿¤Ç¥É¥Ã¥È¥×¥í¥Ã¥È¤Ï2023ǯËö¤Ç¤âÀ¯ºöÊѹ¹¤Ê¤·¤ä¤Í¤ó¡¢¤È¸À¤¤¤¿¤¯¤Ê¤ê¤Þ¤¹¤¬¡¢¤Þ¤¢Íפ¹¤ë¤ËÁá´ü¤Î´ËϤ«¤é¤Î½Ð¸ý¤Ï»Ô¾ì¤ËÁÛÄꤵ¤»¤¿¤¯¤Ê¤¤¤È¤¤¤¦»ö¤ÇÎã¤Î¥É¥Ã¥È¤À¤Ã¤¿¤È¤¤¤¦¤³¤È¤Ç¤¹¤«¤¤¤Ê¡¢¤È¤â¤¦¥É¥Ã¥È¥×¥í¥Ã¥È»ß¤á¤¿Êý¤¬¤¨¤¨¤ó¤Á¤ã¤¦¤Î¤È¤¤¤¦µ¤¤¬¤·¤Æ¤¯¤ë¤³¤Î¥¯¥é¥ê¥À¤ÎÀâÌÀ¡£
¡ØWhile the recent surge in new COVID cases and hospitalizations is cause for concern and a source of downside risk to the very near-term outlook, the welcome news on the development of several effective vaccines indicates to me that the prospects for the economy in 2021 and beyond have brightened and the downside risk to the outlook has diminished.¡Ù
Àè¹Ô¤¤ÎÏäˤʤë¤è¤¦¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¥³¥í¥Ê¤ÎÊý¤Ï¡Öcause for concern and a source of downside risk to the very near-term outlook¡×¤È¤Ï¸À¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤ó¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢²¿¤»¡Övery near-term¡×¤Ã¤Æ¸À¤Ã¤Æ¤ëÊդ꤬¤â¤¦Àè¹Ô¤¤Î¶¯µ¤¤Ã¤×¤ê¤ò¼¨¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ëÌõ¤Ç¡¢ÊÖ¤¹Åá¤ÇÊ£¿ô¤Î͸ú¤Ê¥ï¥¯¥Á¥ó¤â¤Ö¤Ã¤³¤Þ¤ì¤Æ¤¤Þ¤·¤¿¤Î¤Ç¤ª¤Ã¤±¡¼¤ª¤Ã¤±¡¼¥À¥¦¥ó¥µ¥¤¥É¥ê¥¹¥¯¤â¤¤¤º¤ì¾Ã¤¨¤ë¤Ã¤·¤ç¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦¥¨¥é¥¤°ÒÀª¤ÎÎɤ¤Ïäò¤·¤Æ¤ª¤ê¤Þ¤¹¡£
¡ØThe two new SEP charts that we released for the first time following the December FOMC meeting speak to these issues by providing information on how the risks and uncertainties that surround the modal or baseline projections have evolved over time.¡Ù
¡ØWhile nearly all participants continued to judge that the level of uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated, fewer participants saw the balance of risks as weighted to the downside than in September.¡Ù
¡ØAlthough a little more than half of participants judged risks to be broadly balanced for economic activity, a similar number continued to see risks weighted to the downside for inflation.¡Ù
¼¡¤Î¥³¡¼¥Ê¡¼¤¬¡ØThe Latest FOMC Decision and the New Monetary Policy Framework¡Ù¤Ç¤·¤å¡£2Éô¹½À®¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Æ¤³¤Á¤é¤¬Âè2Éô¤Ç¤¹¤Î¡£
¡ØAt our most recent FOMC meetings, the Committee made important changes to our policy statement that upgraded our forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate and asset purchases, and that also provided unprecedented information about our policy reaction function.¡Ù
¡ØAs announced in the September statement and reiterated in November and December, with inflation running persistently below 2 percent, our policy will aim to achieve inflation outcomes that keep inflation expectations well anchored at our 2 percent longer-run goal.3¡Ù
¡ØWe also expect it will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment, until inflation has risen to 2 percent, and until inflation is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.¡Ù
¤Þ¤¢Êª²Á¤¬¥Û¥¤¥Û¥¤¤È¾å¾º¤·¤Ê¤¤¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦¸«Ä̤·¤Î¸µ¤Ç¤³¤ÎÀâÌÀ¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤·¤Æ¡¢¤Þ¤¢¥Û¥¤¥Û¥¤¤È¾å¾º¤·¤Ê¤¤¸Â¤ê¤Ë¤ª¤¤¤Æ¤Ï¶âÍ»´ËÏÂ¥¹¥¿¥ó¥¹¤Î½ê¤Îʸ¸À¤È¤³¤ì¤Ã¤Æº¹°Û¤Ï̵¤¤¤Ç¤¹¤Ê¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦´¶¤¸¤Ç¤Ï¤¢¤ê¤Þ¤¹¤·¡¢¤½¤¦»×¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤«¤é¤³¤¦¤¤¤¦¥¬¥¤¥À¥ó¥¹Ê¸¸À¤ò½Ð¤·¤Æ¤¯¤ë¤ó¤Ç¤¹¤Ê¡£¤Þ¤¢º£¤Î¤È¤³¤í¤Ï¤½¤³¤Þ¤Çµ¤¤Ë¤·¤Ê¤¯¤ÆÎɤ¤¤Î¤Ç¤·¤ç¤¦¤¬¡¢Êª²Á¤¬¥Û¥¤¥Û¥¤¤È¾å¤¬¤ê¤À¤·¤¿»þ¤ÎÍÑ¿´¤Ï°ì±þ¤·¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤·¤Æ¡¢¤³¤ìºÇ½é¤Î´ËÏÂ¥¹¥¿¥ó¥¹¤Ï¡ÖWe expect to maintain¡×¤Îľµåɽ¸½(¥³¥ß¥Ã¥È¥á¥ó¥È¤Ç¤Ï¤Ê¤¤¤±¤É)¤Ç¡¢¶âÍø¤Î¥¬¥¤¥À¥ó¥¹¤Ï¡ÖWe also expect it will be appropriate to maintain¡×¤È¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Æ¡¢¥ï¥ó¥¯¥Ã¥·¥ç¥óÆþ¤ì¤¿É½¸½¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤Ç¡¢¤Þ¤¢Êª²Á¤¬¾å¤¬¤ê¤À¤¹¤ÈÌÌÇò¤¤»ö¤Ë¤Ê¤ë¤ó¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¤µ¤Æ¤É¤¦¤Ê¤ê¤Þ¤¹¤ä¤é¤È¤¤¤¦»ö¤Ç¤¹¡£
¡ØIn addition, in the December statement, we combined our forward guidance for the federal fund rate with enhanced, outcome-based guidance about our asset purchases.¡Ù
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¡ØWe indicated that we will continue to increase our holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and our holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.¡Ù
¸¶Ê¸¤ÎÊý¤Ç¤Ï¡Ösubstantial further progress¡×¤¬¥¤¥¿¥ê¥Ã¥¯¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤¹¤¬¡¢¥¯¥é¥ê¥À¤µ¤ó¤¬¤ªÃãÌܤʤΤϤ虜¤ï¤¶¥¤¥¿¥ê¥Ã¥¯¤Ë¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤È¤¤¤¦¤Î¤Ë¡¢¤³¤Î¡Ösubstantial further progress¡×¤È¤Ï²¿¤¾¤ä¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦Ïäò¤·¤ì¤Ã¤È´°Á´¥¹¥ë¡¼¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë½ê¤Ç¤·¤Æ¡¢¤¦¡¼¤ó¤³¤Îì¤È»×¤Ã¤Æ¤·¤Þ¤¤¤Þ¤·¤¿¡£
¤È¤¤¤¦¤Î¤Ï¤³¤Î¥Ñ¥é¥°¥é¥Õ¤Ï¾åµ¤Î½ê¤Ç½ª¤ï¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤Æ¼¡¤Î¥Ñ¥é¥°¥é¥Õ¤Ë¤Ê¤ê¤Þ¤·¤Æ¡¢¡Ösubstantial further progress¡×¤ÎÀâÌÀ¤ò¤·¤Ê¤¤¤Þ¤Þ¤ÇÄ̤·¤Æ¤ª¤ê¤Þ¤·¤Æ¡¢¤Þ¤¢²¿¤«Íø¾å¤²¤Ï¤è¡¼¤»¤ó¤±¤ÉAPP¤ÎÊý¤Ï¤·¤é¤Ã¤È½Ì¾®¤òÁÀ¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë(·ÐºÑ¾ðÀª¤¬¸«Ä̤·Ä̤ê¤Ê¤é¤Ð¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦Á°Äó¤Ï¤¢¤ë¤±¤É)¤Î¤«¤â¤Í¡¢¤È¤Ï»×¤ï¤»¤Æ¤¯¤ì¤ë¥Ñ¥¿¡¼¥ó¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¤Þ¤¢Íø¾å¤²¤·¤Ê¤¤¤«¤é¿¾¯Ä¹´ü¶âÍø¤¬¾å¤¬¤ë¤Ë¤·¤í¸ÂÅ٤Ȥ¤¤¦¤Î¤¬¤¢¤ë¤¸¤ã¤í¤¦¤·¡¢¤½¤³¤é¤Ø¤ó¤Ï¹â¤ò³ç¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤«¤âÃΤì¤ó¤Ê¤È¤«¾¡¼ê¤Ë(´õ˾Ū´Ñ¬¤â´Þ¤á)»×¤¤¤Þ¤·¤¿¤¬¤µ¤Æ¤É¤¦¤Ê¤ó¤À¤¬¡£
¡ØThe changes to the policy statement that we made over the fall bring our policy guidance in line with the new framework outlined in the revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy that the Committee approved last August.4¡Ù
¡ØIn our new framework, we acknowledge that policy decisions going forward will be based on the FOMC's estimates of "shortfalls [emphasis added] of employment from its maximum level"-not "deviations." ¡Ù
¡ØThis language means that going forward, a low unemployment rate, in and of itself, will not be sufficient to trigger a tightening of monetary policy absent any evidence from other indicators that inflation is at risk of moving above mandate-consistent levels.¡Ù
¡ØWith regard to our price-stability mandate, while the new statement maintains our definition that the longer-run goal for inflation is 2 percent, it elevates the importance-and the challenge-of keeping inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent in a world in which an effective-lower-bound constraint is, in downturns, binding on the federal funds rate.¡Ù
¡ØTo this end, the new statement conveys the Committee's judgment that, in order to anchor expectations at the 2 percent level consistent with price stability, it "seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time," and-in the same sentence-that therefore "following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time."¡Ù
¡ØAs Chair Powell indicated in his Jackson Hole remarks, we think of our new framework as an evolution from "flexible inflation targeting" to "flexible average inflation targeting."5 While this new framework represents a robust evolution in our monetary policy strategy, this strategy is in service to the dual-mandate goals of monetary policy assigned to the Federal Reserve by the Congress?maximum employment and price stability-which remain unchanged.6¡Ù
¡ØWhile our interest rate and balance sheet tools are providing powerful support to the economy and will continue to do so as the recovery progresses, it will take some time for economic activity and employment to return to levels that prevailed at the business cycle peak reached last February.¡Ù
¡ØWe are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy and to help ensure that the recovery from this difficult period will be as robust as possible.¡Ù