[外部リンク] of Chair Powell’s Press Conference January 27, 2021
まずはオープニングリマークを逐語確認してみるだよ。
最初のパラグラフはご挨拶と本日の決定の結果部分。
『CHAIR POWELL. Good afternoon. At the Federal Reserve, we are strongly committed to achieving the monetary policy goals that Congress has given us-maximum employment and price stability. Since the beginning of the pandemic, we have taken forceful actions to provide relief and stability, to ensure that the recovery will be as strong as possible, and to limit lasting damage to the economy.』
ここまでただの挨拶みたいなもん。
『Today my colleagues on the FOMC and I kept interest rates near zero and maintained our sizable asset purchases. These measures, along with our strong guidance on interest rates and our balance sheet, will ensure that monetary policy will continue to deliver powerful support to the economy until the recovery is complete.』
ここもほぼ挨拶です。でもってここの最後、前回もそうですが「until the recovery is complete」ってので締めていまして、とにかく今次政策の修正(出口方向への)時には慎重にやりまっせ、というのを強調するのがお約束になっています。
次のパラグラフに参ります。
『The path of the economy continues to depend significantly on the course of the virus. A resurgence in recent months in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths is causing great hardship for millions of Americans, and is weighing on economic activity and job creation.』
感染症動向ですよの話のあとここも挨拶っぽい話。
『Following a sharp rebound in economic activity last summer, the pace of the recovery has moderated in recent months, with the weakness concentrated in the sectors of the economy most adversely affected by the resurgence of the virus and by greater social distancing.』
でもって経済の全体感を示しているこの部分ですが、声明文ではここまで細々書けないのでオープニングリマークで少しクドクド説明になる訳ですが、「回復ペースが鈍化している」というのが声明文にもありましたけれども、ここでは「Following a sharp rebound in economic activity last summer」というのが付いてきておりまして、これを付けると声明文の単体での文章と雰囲気違ってきますよね(個人の感想です)、何か別に悲観的になったのではなくて、夏の盛大な回復はその前の盛大な落ち込みの戻りがあったしー、って話になりますんで。でもって「with the weakness concentrated in the sectors of」の部分の解釈はさっき上の方で書いたようにアタクシは見ています。
『Household spending on services remains low, especially in sectors that typically require people to gather closely, including travel and hospitality. And household spending on goods has moderated following earlier large gains.』
ぱっとしない家計消費(コロナだからしゃーないけど)ですな。
『In contrast, the housing sector has more than fully recovered from the downturn, supported in part by low mortgage interest rates.』
『Business investment and manufacturing production have also picked up. The overall recovery in economic activity since last spring is due in part to federal stimulus payments and expanded unemployment benefits, which have provided essential support to many families and individuals. The recently enacted Coronavirus Response and Relief Act will provide additional support. Overall economic activity remains below its level before the pandemic, and the path ahead remains highly uncertain.』
『As with overall economic activity, the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed in recent months. Employment fell by 140,000 in December, as continued gains in many industries were outweighed by significant losses in industries where the resurgence of the virus has weighed further on activity. In particular, the leisure and hospitality sector lost nearly half a million jobs, largely from restaurants and bars. The unemployment rate remained elevated at 6.7 percent in December, and participation in the labor market is notably below pre-pandemic levels.』
『Although there has been much progress in the labor market since the spring, millions of Americans remain out of work. The economic downturn has not fallen equally on all Americans, and those least able to shoulder the burden have been the hardest hit. In particular, the high level of joblessness has been especially severe for lower-wage workers in the service sector and for African Americans and Hispanics. The economic dislocation has upended many lives and created great uncertainty about the future.』
『The pandemic has also left a significant imprint on inflation. Following large declines in the spring, consumer prices picked up over the summer but have leveled out more recently. For those sectors that have been most adversely affected by the pandemic, prices remain particularly soft. Overall, on a 12-month basis, inflation remains below our 2 percent longer-run objective.』
あっさり味なのはマンデートに対してまだまだという認識だからですな。
次のパラグラフでワクチン接種の進展話が来るのだがここで味わい深い説明がある。
『While we should not underestimate the challenges we currently face, several developments point to an improved outlook for later this year. Sufficiently widespread vaccinations would enable us to put the pandemic behind us and return to more normal economic activities. In the meantime, continued observance of social distancing measures and wearing masks will help us reach that goal as soon as possible.』
パンデミックの問題は当然ながら過小評価してはアカン、といいながらも幾つかの進展が我々の今年終わりにかけての見通しを改善させている、といってます(だからやっぱり今回のFOMCを「景気により悲観的」とか解釈してる何とかスト(別に網羅的に確認してないけどチビったのでうっかりいつもよりも多めに何とかストコメントを確認したが「より悲観的になった」ってコメントマジで少数だけどあった)のコメントはちょっと外していると思う、と急に元気になるアタクシ^^)が、その次の「In the meantime」から先の文章ってこれバイデン大統領が提唱しててトランプ前大統領が執拗にスルーしていた件でありますところの「wearing masks」がソーシャルディスタンシングと共に「will help us reach that goal as soon as possible」と言っているのが無茶苦茶味わい深いですね。
『Support from fiscal policy will help households and businesses weather the downturn as well as limit lasting damage to the economy that could otherwise impede the recovery.』
追加コロナ予算が効果を出すでしょう。
『In addition, as we have seen since last summer, the economy has proved more resilient than expected, in part reflecting the adaptability of households and businesses.』
『The Fed’s response to this crisis has been guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people, along with our responsibilities to promote the stability of the financial system.』
ここまではただの枕詞。
『Today we unanimously reaffirmed our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, as we typically do each January.』
[外部リンク] 27, 2021 Federal Open Market Committee reaffirms its "Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy" For release at 2:00 p.m. EST
『The reaffirmed statement is identical to the statement adopted in August 2020 following the Committee's review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices, which included numerous public Fed Listens events around the country. The Committee first adopted a framework statement in 2012.』(ここだけ直上URL先のFRBリリースより引用しています)
『As we say in that statement, we view maximum employment as a “broad-based and inclusive goal.” Our ability to achieve maximum employment in the years ahead depends importantly on having longer-term inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent. As the Committee reiterated in today’s policy statement, with inflation running persistently below 2 percent, we will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. We expect to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these employment and inflation outcomes are achieved. With regard to interest rates, we continue to expect it will be appropriate to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessment of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.』
『In addition, we will continue to increase our holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward our maximum-employment and price-stability goals. The increase in our balance sheet since last March has materially eased financial conditions and is providing substantial support to the economy. The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals, and it is likely to take some time for substantial further progress to be achieved』
途中まではもろに声明文と被ってます。最後に「The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals」云々とぶっこんでおりまして、早期のテーパリング観測の浮上を今は封印しておきたい、というお気持ちが良く伝わって参りますな。
『Our forward guidance for the federal funds rate along with our balance sheet guidance will ensure that the stance of monetary policy remains highly accommodative as the recovery progresses. Our guidance is outcome based and ties the path of the federal funds rate and the balance sheet to progress toward reaching our employment and inflation goals. Thus, if progress toward our goals were to slow, the guidance would convey our intention to increase policy accommodation through a lower expected path of the federal funds rate and a higher expected path of the balance sheet. Overall, our interest rate and balance sheet tools are providing powerful support to the economy and will continue to do so.』
『We have also taken actions to more directly support the flow of credit in the economy, deploying our emergency lending powers to an unprecedented extent, enabled in large part by financial backing and support from Congress and the Treasury. Although the CARES Act facilities are no longer open to new activity, our other facilities remain in place.』
『To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy and to help assure that the recovery from this difficult period will be as robust as possible.』
[外部リンク] Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.』(今回) 『The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.』(前回)
『The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world.』(今回) 『The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world.』(前回)
の出だしは同じですがこの次が定性的というか質的に判断を上げてやがります。
『The pace of the recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated in recent months, with weakness concentrated in the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic.』(今回) 『Economic activity and employment have continued to recover but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year.』(前回)
これですね、最初の所は、「The pace of the recovery in economic activity and employment has moderated in recent months」で、そらまあ感染第何波だか知らんけどステイツさんの感染あばばばばー振りは大変なもんなので、「経済活動の回復や雇用の改善がここ数か月モデレートになっている」と回復速度に関しては引き下げているんですけど、その後に前回あった「remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year」即ちパンデミック前から見たら相当な低い水準にありますがな、という記述をバッサリ削除していまして、(年が変わったから入れるとしたらプレパンデミックレベルとか言うんでしょう)水準の低さに言及しなかった、というのがありますが、更にその次の所に今回入ったのが「with weakness concentrated in the sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic」でして、これは即ち「経済活動や雇用の弱さが特定セクターに集中している」という認識を示したもの。前回はそういう記述が無くて今回この記述が入っている、ということは、物凄くザックリ言ってしまいますと、FEDの認識として、「マクロ的に経済があばばばばー」というステージから「特定セクターが集中的にあばばばばー、即ちマクロ的な話ではなくてセクタースペシファイドの話」ということですので、ちょっと大袈裟に言えば「パンデミックの問題はマクロ問題からミクロ問題にステージが変わった」という表現になりますよね(なお会見はまだこれ書いている時点で確認してない、オープニングリマークは目を泳がせただけ、という状態で、声明文だけで判断していますので会見等で別の話が出てたらサーセン)。
『Weaker demand and earlier declines in oil prices have been holding down consumer price inflation.』(今回) 『Weaker demand and earlier declines in oil prices have been holding down consumer price inflation.』(前回)
物価認識は不変で弱いまま。
『Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.』(今回) 『Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.』(前回)
ファイナンシャルコンディションについても、ワシらの政策によっても支えてまっせ文言も含めて不変。
・第2パラグラフ:先行き見通しの文言がこれまた変化してワクチン期待が高いのは把握した
『The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus, including progress on vaccinations.』(今回) 『The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus.』(前回)
『The ongoing public health crisis continues to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook.』(今回) 『The ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.』(前回)
こちら、まあ主文の趣旨自体は同じ(今後の公衆衛生の危機状況が経済物価雇用に影響デカいし、それが先行き見通しの下振れリスクですよ)なのですが、前回はここの部分が「will continue」となっていたのが、今回普通に「continues」と現在形になっていて、そのあとの「in the near term」を削除し、公衆衛生上の云々の所にあった「over the medium term」も削除になっています。
『The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent.』(今回)
『The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent.』(前回)
最初のいつもの文言、次がロンガーランストラテジーに則った政策ストラテジー。
『The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.』(今回)
『The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.』(前回)
「緩和的なスタンスでの政策を継続する期間」のガイダンスと政策金利のガイダンス。
『In addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.』(今回)
『In addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.』(前回)
『In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.』(今回)
『In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.』(前回)
『Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Mary C. Daly; Charles L. Evans; Randal K. Quarles; and Christopher J. Waller.』(今回)
『Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Richard H. Clarida; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Loretta J. Mester; and Randal K. Quarles.』(前回)
『Conduct repurchase agreement operations to support effective policy implementation and the smooth functioning of short-term U.S. dollar funding markets.』(今回) 『Conduct term and overnight repurchase agreement operations to support effective policy implementation and the smooth functioning of short-term U.S. dollar funding markets.』(前回)
ということで、「term and overnight」ってのが抜けてるので、これはタームのRRPについては市場が安定してればやらんでヨロシという意味かいな、と思いました。詳しくはNY連銀を見に行くと出ているような気がするんですがそこまで寝起きで時間が無いのでパス。
[外部リンク] 13, 2021 Full Employment in the New Monetary Policy Framework Governor Lael Brainard At the Inaugural Mike McCracken Lecture on Full Employment Sponsored by the Canadian Association for Business Economics (via webcast)
この講演、『Monetary Policy Framework』ってのが先にあって、まあそっちも見ておいた方が良いかもしれませんが、今申し上げたような感じで、フレームワークの中で書かれているストラテジーではそこまで解釈するのは俺様解釈として踏み込んでるだろ、という見解を既にご開陳されていますので、それを引っ込めていればオモロイですが、まあブレイナードさんそういうタマじゃないので(という意味ではこの姐さんいい根性してるわと毎度思う)そこは華麗にスルーして後半の『Outlook and Policy』を拝読(ちょっとだけ先日の部分を再掲しちゃうかも知れません)。
『Late last year, the Committee integrated the framework changes into its monetary policy. The September 2020 FOMC statement adopted outcome-based forward guidance for the policy rate tied to shortfalls from maximum employment and 2 percent average inflation, and the December 2020 FOMC statement adopted outcome-based forward guidance for asset purchases.』
というのから始まります。「outcome-based forward guidance for asset purchases」の話は先日引用した部分にありますが、あのガイダンスはAPPは「改善に向けた顕著な進展がある」までUST80とMBS40ビリオンの買入拡大ペースを継続とは書いていますが、明示的な数値は提示していないので、当然これはジャッジメンタルと解釈するものなのですけれども、そのジャッジメントにおいて、実績値ベースでのスレッショルド達成を所与とする、というのを入れているのがブレイナードさんのハト方向に踏み込んだ話ですね。しつこいですかそうですか。
『Our monetary policy approach should support a stronger, broader-based recovery from the deep and disparate damage of COVID-19.』
まあそれは良い。
『The guidance indicates that the Committee expects the policy rate to remain at the lower bound until employment has reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment, and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.』
『The forward guidance reflects the important lesson that, with a significantly smaller scope to cut the policy rate than in past recessions, the Committee can provide needed accommodation by making forward commitments on the policy rate that are credible to the public.15 The outcome-based forward guidance communicates how the policy rate will react to the evolution of inflation and employment.』
『It makes clear that the timing of liftoff will depend on realized progress toward maximum employment and 2 percent average inflation.』
『The FOMC statement notes that monetary policy will remain accommodative after liftoff in order to achieve "inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time."16 Even after economic conditions warrant liftoff, changes in the policy rate are likely to be only gradual to support the inflation makeup strategy and maximum employment.』
『Market expectations appear to have adjusted in response to the changes in the FOMC's approach. The Survey of Market Participants conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates a shift in expectations following the release of the new monetary policy framework.17 The median expected rate of unemployment at the time of liftoff moved down from 4.5 percent in the July survey, before the release of the framework, to 4.0 percent in the September and subsequent surveys, following the release of the new framework. Similarly, the median level of 12-month PCE inflation anticipated at the time of liftoff rose from 2 percent in the July survey to 2.3 percent in the September survey and beyond, following the introduction of FAIT.18』
中々経済見通しの話が始まらんなオイ。
『The forward guidance adopted in December expands the goals of the asset purchases beyond market functioning by establishing qualitative outcome-based criteria tied to realized progress on our employment and inflation goals. This approach integrates the forward guidance on the policy rate and on asset purchases, rather than establishing distinct criteria. The December guidance clarifies that the pandemic asset purchases will continue at least at the current pace until substantial further progress is made on our employment and inflation goals. In assessing substantial further progress, I will be looking for sustained improvements in realized and expected inflation and will examine a range of indicators to assess shortfalls from maximum employment.』
『If we look ahead, effective vaccines and additional fiscal support are important positive developments, but the near-term outlook is challenging due to the resurgence of the pandemic, and the economy remains far from our goals. The most recent spending indicators point to a considerable loss of momentum late in the fourth quarter. Sales of consumer durable goods-such as furniture, electronics, and appliances-declined in November, after surging since the spring.19 The rise in cases in November and the associated social distancing resulted in a decline in already low services consumption, with sales at restaurants and bars falling by 4 percent, the largest drop since April. Continued social distancing over the cold winter months is likely to generate a significant drag for spending on services that require personal contact. Additionally, state and local income and sales tax and gaming and energy-related revenues remain depressed, and the most recent payrolls report indicates that state and local governments are having difficulty sustaining employment levels as the virus persists.』
ここも再掲になります。足元ではコケておりますよね、の方の話を強調していますね。
『Inflation remains very low; core PCE inflation ran at 1.4 percent over the 12 months ending in November. Even though some of the survey-based measures of inflation expectations have picked up recently, they still remain close to the lower end of their historical ranges. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have also picked up. While disentangling inflation expectations from liquidity and term premiums is imprecise, staff models attribute a significant portion of the movement in inflation compensation to an increase in expectations, bringing them up from the lows seen in March but still below their historical averages. Inflation may temporarily rise to or above 2 percent on a 12-month basis in a few months when the low March and April price readings from last year fall out of the 12-month calculation, but it will be important to see sustained improvement to meet our average inflation goal.』
『The COVID-19 pandemic is exacerbating disparities, and employment remains far from our goals. Last Friday's payroll report highlighted the effects of the resurgence of the virus, with the first overall decline in payrolls since April and a stark 498,000 decline in leisure and hospitality jobs. Overall, payroll employment is still nearly 10 million jobs below its February level. If we adjust the 6.7 percent headline unemployment rate for the decline in participation since February and the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate of misclassification, the unemployment rate would be 10 percent, similar to the peak following the Global Financial Crisis.』
『The damage from COVID-19 is concentrated among already challenged groups. Federal Reserve staff analysis indicates that unemployment is likely above 20 percent for workers in the bottom wage quartile, while it has fallen below 5 percent for the top wage quartile.20 Black and Hispanic unemployment stood at 9.9 percent and 9.3 percent, respectively, in December, while White unemployment was 6.0 percent. Labor force participation for prime-age workers has declined, particularly for parents of school-aged children, where the declines have been greater for women than for men, and greater for Black and Hispanic mothers than for White mothers.』
『The K-shaped recovery remains highly uneven, with certain sectors and groups experiencing substantial hardship. All told, real gross domestic product likely declined by about 2-1/2 percent in 2020, with the damage concentrated disproportionately among some groups of workers and sectors as well as smaller businesses.』
でまあK字回復ってのが出てきますわな。
『Fortunately, fiscal support looks set to resume playing a vital role in the form of stimulus payments and extended unemployment benefits, particularly for the cash-constrained households that make up a significant fraction of the population. The additional Paycheck Protection Program financing will be a vital support for the many hard-hit small businesses facing continued revenue shortfalls and declining cash balances.』
『The damage would have been much greater in the absence of substantial fiscal and monetary support. The unprecedented scale and composition of fiscal support made a vital difference in replacing lost income and supporting demand in the middle of last year and is expected to do so again in the months ahead. The unprecedented speed and breadth of the monetary policy response through an expanded set of tools is supporting lower borrowing costs along the yield curve for households and businesses as well as better inflation and employment outcomes.』
ということで金融政策と財政政策のサポートなかりせばエライコッチャでしたけど我々のサポートで云々、というお話ですな、でまあしらっと金融政策の所では「supporting lower borrowing costs along the yield curve for households and businesses」と来ているので、経済の認識がよほど強くなる(マクロ的回復だけではなくK字回復じゃないよ、って認識を示すようになる)まではこの人中々テーパーに首を縦に振らなさそう、というのは把握した。
『The outlook will depend on the path of the virus and vaccinations. While the number of new cases is high and rising, the distribution of multiple effective vaccines is under way.21 Spending on in-person services is likely to return to pre-pandemic levels only as conditions around the virus improve substantially. Most forecasts predict a significant rebound in aggregate spending this year. And there is some risk to the upside if the efficient delivery of vaccines across many jurisdictions ultimately results in a globally synchronized expansion.』
でもって見通しの部分ですが、結局の所感染症対策が効いて経済活動が戻るかどうか次第ですよ、という話ではありますが、一応ブレイナードさんですら「And there is some risk to the upside」と言っているので、まあそういう意味では利上げは兎も角としてテーパリングが当面全然気にしなくて良いとまで決め打ちするのはさすがに時期尚早、というかまあそこを見て米国の金利って居場所を変えたんでしょうけど。
『We are strongly committed to achieving our maximum-employment and average-inflation goals. It is too early to say how long it will take. The Committee has stated clearly that it needs to see substantial further progress toward our goals before adjusting purchases. The economy is far away from our goals in terms of both employment and inflation, and even under an optimistic outlook, it will take time to achieve substantial further progress. Given my baseline outlook, I expect that the current pace of purchases will remain appropriate for quite some time. Of course, the outlook is highly uncertain, and forecasts are subject to revisions-a key reason why our forward guidance is outcome based and tied to realized progress on our goals.』
『The recovery thus far has been uneven, and the path ahead is uncertain. We remain far from our goals, with core PCE inflation only at 1.4 percent and payroll employment nearly 10 million below its pre-pandemic level. The Committee's forward guidance will help keep borrowing costs low along the yield curve for households and businesses, improve inflation outcomes, and enable the labor market to heal, leading to a broader-based and stronger recovery. The strong support from monetary policy, together with fiscal stimulus, should turn the K-shaped recovery into a broad-based and inclusive recovery that delivers full employment, as Mike McCracken would have wished. Thank you.』
[外部リンク] 13, 2021 Full Employment in the New Monetary Policy Framework Governor Lael Brainard At the Inaugural Mike McCracken Lecture on Full Employment Sponsored by the Canadian Association for Business Economics (via webcast)
『The forward guidance adopted in December expands the goals of the asset purchases beyond market functioning by establishing qualitative outcome-based criteria tied to realized progress on our employment and inflation goals. This approach integrates the forward guidance on the policy rate and on asset purchases, rather than establishing distinct criteria. The December guidance clarifies that the pandemic asset purchases will continue at least at the current pace until substantial further progress is made on our employment and inflation goals. In assessing substantial further progress, I will be looking for sustained improvements in realized and expected inflation and will examine a range of indicators to assess shortfalls from maximum employment.』
ガイダンス文言の「substantial improvements」については「sustained improvements in realized and expected inflation and will examine a range of indicators to assess shortfalls from maximum employment」と言ってまして、実績ベースの数値がかなり良くならないと認めん、というスタンス。ただしこれは本来的にはあのガイダンス文言は「ジャッジメンタル」なものなので、ブレイナードの解釈は実績値にも紐付けている時点でガイダンスを文字通り解釈したものからはハト方向に逸脱しています。
『The outlook will depend on the path of the virus and vaccinations. While the number of new cases is high and rising, the distribution of multiple effective vaccines is under way.21 Spending on in-person services is likely to return to pre-pandemic levels only as conditions around the virus improve substantially. Most forecasts predict a significant rebound in aggregate spending this year. And there is some risk to the upside if the efficient delivery of vaccines across many jurisdictions ultimately results in a globally synchronized expansion.』
『We are strongly committed to achieving our maximum-employment and average-inflation goals. It is too early to say how long it will take. The Committee has stated clearly that it needs to see substantial further progress toward our goals before adjusting purchases. The economy is far away from our goals in terms of both employment and inflation, and even under an optimistic outlook, it will take time to achieve substantial further progress.』
『Given my baseline outlook, I expect that the current pace of purchases will remain appropriate for quite some time. Of course, the outlook is highly uncertain, and forecasts are subject to revisions-a key reason why our forward guidance is outcome based and tied to realized progress on our goals.』
ベースラインシナリオでは「for quite some time」に現状の買入ペースを維持するのが適切。
『The recovery thus far has been uneven, and the path ahead is uncertain. We remain far from our goals, with core PCE inflation only at 1.4 percent and payroll employment nearly 10 million below its pre-pandemic level.』
これ最後のパラグラフになりますが、ゴールに遠い、ってのをしつこく強調。
『The Committee's forward guidance will help keep borrowing costs low along the yield curve for households and businesses, improve inflation outcomes, and enable the labor market to heal, leading to a broader-based and stronger recovery. The strong support from monetary policy, together with fiscal stimulus, should turn the K-shaped recovery into a broad-based and inclusive recovery that delivers full employment, as Mike McCracken would have wished. Thank you.』
『St. Louis Fed President James Bullard discussed the U.S. economic outlook, monetary policy, fiscal policy and inflation during a Wall Street Journal Newsmakers Live Q&A.』
『Bullard noted that the report of December job losses didn’t change his overall economic outlook because vaccines have come online sooner than he would have expected. He said that the outlook for 2021 remains quite strong, and he expects growth to be well above trend and unemployment to come down below 5%.』
テラ強気wwwwwwww
『He also described his view that the initial fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 crisis was designed for a larger economic shock than what has occurred. In addition, he noted that the level of real disposable income for 2020 suggests the policy of trying to keep disrupted households whole has been successful.』
コロナエイドの第一弾はショック対応として家計の実質可処分所得を維持するのに成功したそうです。
『Inflation looks set to move somewhat higher, Bullard said. Market-based inflation expectations have moved up, and a lot of the ingredients for inflation seem to be in place, he noted.』
『He also discussed the Fed’s purchases of U.S. Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities, noting that the FOMC is waiting for further substantial progress toward their maximum employment and price stability goals.』
資産買入に関しては現状では「FOMC is waiting for further substantial progress」だとの認識ですが、
『“The idea is that we want to get through the pandemic and sort of see where the dust settles, and then we’ll be able to think about where to go with balance sheet policy,” Bullard said.』
でもってブラードさんその前にも話をしていまして、 [外部リンク] Louis Fed's Bullard Presents "The Pandemic Endgame Begins" 1/7/2021
これはまた威勢の良い題名。例によってプレゼンテーション紙芝居があってこの説明文って感じになります。 プレゼン紙芝居はこちら。(URL長いから途中の所まででハイパーリンクしました) [外部リンク] LOUIS - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard presented “The Pandemic Endgame Begins” via webinar for the Little Rock Regional Chamber on Thursday.』
題名からして威勢が良い。
『During his presentation, Bullard said that although the COVID-19 pandemic has worsened in the U.S. and Europe, the arrival of vaccines suggests the health crisis will wane in the months ahead.』
数か月後にはワクチン様によって危機は収まって来るそうな。ホンマカイナとは思いますが。
『In addition, he said, “In the U.S., monetary and fiscal policies have been especially aggressive, and the associated macroeconomic outcomes have been considerably better than originally expected at the pandemic onset.” He noted that aggregate resources available to fund consumption continue to be exceptionally high, suggesting continued recovery in the first half of 2021.』
拡張的な金融財政政策で当初の予想よりも経済は強いと。
『“Some downside risk remains, and continued execution of a granular, risk-based health policy will be critical in the months ahead,” he said.』
まだダウンサイドリスクはあるので今後数カ月はリスクを注意した公衆衛生政策がキモでっせ、と来まして、最初の小見出しが『Health Crisis Worsens but Is Expected to Wane』です。
『Regarding management of the global health crisis, Bullard noted that daily fatalities per 100,000 population have increased in both Europe and the U.S. He added that East Asia and Pacific countries continue to report daily fatalities per 100,000 population that are an order of magnitude lower than in the U.S. and Europe.』
『Bullard noted that vaccines will help bring the crisis to a close. “Vaccine distribution is being directed toward those most vulnerable to COVID-19, suggesting declining fatalities in the months ahead,” he said.』
やたらワクチンが来ると大丈夫話をしているのがホンマカイナという気は拭えんがまあそういう認識。
『He observed that business restrictions today aren’t too different from what they have been in recent months in the U.S., as suggested by the University of Oxford’s stringency index. Renewed increases in infections in recent months are likely coming more from personal interactions at the household level, he added.』
次の小見出しが『Effective Monetary and Fiscal Policies』です。
『Bullard said that U.S. monetary and fiscal policies have been exceptionally effective during the crisis.』
ほうほうそうですか。
『Monetary policy included lowering the policy rate to the effective lower bound and providing liquidity to financial markets through a variety of programs supported by the U.S. Treasury, he noted.』
『“The backstop programs stemmed an incipient financial crisis during the March-April time frame, to the point where current levels of financial stress are at pre-pandemic levels,” he said.』
現在の金融ストレスレベルは既にパンデミック前のレベルになっているそうです、まあそうですわな。
『On U.S. fiscal policy in the first 11 months of 2020, Bullard noted that the total value of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act along with additional legislation would be about $3.148 trillion.』
一瞬3148なのかと思ってビビったがカンマじゃなくて小数点でしたww
『He pointed out that the shortfall in 2020 real GDP, according to forecasters, will likely be closer to 2%-2.5%, or about $400 billion to $500 billion.』
『He also noted that the fiscal response drove personal income up to an all-time high in the second quarter, which is the opposite of what normally happens in a recession.』
『In addition, the Consolidated Appropriation Act of 2021, which was signed into law Dec. 27, includes an additional $900 billion in pandemic relief, he pointed out.』
『U.S. Recovery Far Ahead of Schedule』という小見出しに参ります。
『Current macroeconomic data suggest that April will prove to be the lowest point of the crisis, provided the remainder of the crisis can be managed effectively, Bullard noted. He pointed out that third-quarter real GDP growth, at an annualized rate of 33.4%, was the fastest on record. He added that fourth-quarter real GDP appears to have grown at an above-trend pace, according to forecasts.』
『Bullard also noted that employment has rebounded more rapidly than expected, supporting the idea that many layoffs were temporary as firms adjusted to the pandemic. “As a result, the U.S. labor market recovery is four years ahead of where it was following the 2007-09 recession,” he said.』
『Bullard then discussed inflation expectations. “Market-based inflation expectations have recovered from lows reached during March 2020,” he said.』
市場ベースのBEIも回復しているとな。
『The Federal Open Market Committee’s new policy framework, which was announced in Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s 2020 Jackson Hole speech, has likely encouraged some of this movement, Bullard explained.』
『He noted that TIPS-based breakeven inflation, which is based on consumer price index (CPI) inflation measures, could move considerably higher and still be consistent with a personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) inflation outcome modestly above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.』
(URL長いから途中の所まででハイパーリンクしました) [外部リンク] Economic Outlook - Optimism Despite the Challenges Ahead By Eric S. Rosengren January 12, 2021
本チャンの講演はこちらです。 [外部リンク] takeaways from Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren’s Jan. 12, 2021 remarks』
『1.Takeaway: We enter 2021 with some optimism about the economy. Two effective vaccines for COVID-19 are already being distributed, and we should see broader economic recovery in the medium term.
Excerpt: “…as the new year dawns, it seems likely that the public health crisis that has inflicted so much damage - on individuals, families, businesses, and the economy generally - will dissipate over the course of this year.”』
と来ていまして、パンデミックの経済に与える影響の今後についての考えはブラードさんと同じ認識ですな。
『2.Takeaway: The economic outlook remains intertwined with that of virus, and the path to stabilizing the economy hinges on first getting COVID under control.
Excerpt: “…recent indicators suggest near-term problems stemming from elevated infections and persistent public health concerns. So clearly, the near-term recovery is highly dependent on rapid, widespread vaccination. Unfortunately, to date, the inoculation rate has been disappointing.”』
『3.Takeaway: There are several reasons for optimism about the medium-term outlook, including favorable financial conditions, rising asset prices, and a resilient housing market. Meanwhile, household savings remain elevated.
Excerpt: “…for those whose incomes were not interrupted (for example, those whose jobs were conducive to working from home, and whose industries were not stalled by the pandemic) there is significant capacity to make expenditures once the pandemic is over. Because consumption is such a large part of the economy, in the second half of the year if vaccinations are widespread, we are likely to see a significant pick up in consumption.”』
何かホンマカイナって感じではありますが、「There are several reasons for optimism about the medium-term outlook」という中で、家計の貯蓄率が引きあがったままの件について、「特に収入が切れた訳でもない家計においてがそうだが、パンデミックが終了すればこれらの貯蓄が消費余地となって一段と消費を押し上げる」というエライ勢いで楽観的な話に見えるんですけど、まあ雨公だったらそうなのかもね、とは思いました。
『4.Takeaway: Despite these optimistic signs, the pandemic is likely to continue to be a problem for public health and the economy in the first half of 2021, until widespread vaccinations take hold. Policymakers must be mindful of the deep pain still occurring in many segments of the economy.
Excerpt: “…many of the economic problems caused by the pandemic have actually been deferred, to date - for example, problems in commercial real estate and the bank loans tied to such property are likely to only be fully revealed later this year. … Importantly, the disparate economic outcomes we have seen during the pandemic have further highlighted the problems of income inequality that remain a significant challenge.”』
『5.Takeaway: The economy’s resilience can be credited in part to significant fiscal support, and monetary policy actions that reduced interest rates to their lower limit. Support also came from the variety of Fed emergency lending facilities, including the Main Street Lending Program, which was operated from the Boston Fed.
Excerpt: “Policymakers must continue to find ways to support those…disproportionately and severely impacted by the pandemic. … My personal preference would have been to continue the (Main Street) program through the first half of 2021. The program filled a hole often left unaddressed - support for medium-sized businesses. … The program extended more than $16.5 billion in lending to over 1,800 companies. … The program settled just under 650 loans in the months from July to November, then over 1,150 loans in December alone … with settled loans across 49 states and two U.S. territories. Looking at the industries utilizing the program’s loans suggests some unsurprising areas of need, given the pandemic’s toll on certain industries where social distancing is challenging.”』
『6.Takeaway: Despite the challenges, the Main Street program provided helpful financing and showed the feasibility of marshalling lenders and the public sector to assist hard-to-reach businesses that can survive with the support of a bridge to better times. But, were certain tweaks permitted, the program could have been more impactful.
Excerpt: “First, with less focus on mitigation of potential loss to the Treasury, much more credit would have been made available. Second, designing the program to have less legal and operational complexity, and structuring the banks’ role differently - for example, as an opportunity to earn fees as long as the loan performed, rather than a 5 percent participation - may have increased the attractiveness of the program for banks. Finally, longer terms and greater ability to refinance would have provided support to medium-sized businesses more akin to what was available to larger companies...』
[外部リンク] of the Federal Open Market Committee December 15-16, 2020 A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held by videoconference on Tuesday, December 15, 2020, at 1:00 p.m. and continued on Wednesday, December 16, 2020, at 9:00 a.m.1
いつものように『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』を見るのですが、今日は寝起きインスタント読みではないので、さすがに語順で読むとしますが、前半が経済物価情勢のパート、後半が政策運営のパートになりますので、先に後半から参ります。パラグラフで言うと10パラグラフ目からになります。
『In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants reaffirmed the Federal Reserve's commitment to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy during this challenging time, thereby promoting the Committee's statutory goals of maximum employment and price stability.』
ここはまあいつもの選手宣誓みたいなもんなのでスルー。
『Participants agreed that the path of the economy would depend significantly on the course of the virus and that the ongoing public health crisis would continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term. Participants noted that, with the pandemic worsening across the country, the expansion would likely slow in coming months.』
『That said, participants agreed that the path ahead remained highly uncertain and that the economy remained far from the Committee's longer-run goals.』
『In light of this assessment, all participants judged that maintaining an accommodative stance of monetary policy was essential to foster economic recovery and to achieve an average inflation rate of 2 percent over time.』
『All participants supported enhancing the Committee's guidance on asset purchases at this meeting and, in particular, adopting qualitative, outcome-based guidance indicating that increases in asset holdings would continue, with purchases of Treasury securities of at least $80 billion per month and of agency MBS of at least $40 billion per month, until substantial further progress has been made toward reaching the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.』
『In their discussions of this change, participants noted that the new guidance regarding balance sheet policy brought the statement's references to purchases into better alignment with the Committee's outcome-based guidance on the federal funds rate, offered more clarity about the role played by the asset purchase program in providing accommodation to meet the Committee's economic goals, and underscored the responsiveness of balance sheet policy to unanticipated economic developments.』
でもってこの新しいAPPのガイダンス(向こう数カ月→マンデート達成に向けた経済物価情勢の更なる顕著な改善が行われるまで)に関しては、FF金利のアウトカムベースのガイダンスに良い栄養分になりまっせ(手元のデイリーコンサイスだとalignment=栄養とか養分とかでしたんで)との事でございますが、「offered more clarity」とか入っていて、要は「マンデート水準の達成に向けて金融緩和政策を継続しますよ」というのを明確にしました、というような感じ。
『A few participants stressed that all of the Committee's policy tools were now well positioned to respond to the evolution of the economy. For example, if progress toward the Committee's goals proved slower than anticipated, the new guidance relayed the Committee's intention to respond by increasing monetary policy accommodation through maintaining the current level of the target range of the federal funds rate for longer and raising the expected path of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.』
『A couple of participants remarked that, against this background, it was important to convey to the public that the federal funds rate remained the Committee's primary policy tool.』
『A number of participants discussed considerations related to determining the eventual attainment of "substantial further progress" toward reaching the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.』
そらそうよ、という感じですが、APPのガイダンス文言における "substantial further progress"とは何ぞやという話キタコレなのですが、
『Participants commented that this judgment would be broad, qualitative, and not based on specific numerical criteria or thresholds.』
『Various participants noted the importance of the Committee clearly communicating its assessment of actual and expected progress toward its longer-run goals well in advance of the time when it could be judged substantial enough to warrant a change in the pace of purchases.』
・・・・・・ということで "substantial further progress"のコーナーが終わっていまして、結局の所このキーワードに関しては「定性的総合判断」といういざとなったら何でもありな定義(とも言い難い)に押し込まれたままで明確化はされない、という事になりました。まあその方が将来やりやすいのは事実ですが、実際に経済物価情勢が改善してきた場合に市場が先走る場合にこの真価が問われることになりそうですけど、なんか市場ちゃんもその辺はコンセンサス固まって無さそうで、経済物価情勢が好調に推移するなら早めにガス抜きをした方が良さげな気もしますけどどうでしょうかね。
んじゃ次。
『Regarding the decisions on the pace and composition of the Committee's asset purchases, all participants judged that it would be appropriate to continue those purchases at least at the current pace, and nearly all favored maintaining the current composition of purchases, although a couple of participants indicated that they were open to weighting purchases of Treasury securities toward longer maturities.』
『Participants generally judged that the asset purchase program as structured was providing very significant policy accommodation.』
これはどうでもよいので次。
『Some participants noted that the Committee could consider future adjustments to its asset purchases-such as increasing the pace of securities purchases or weighting purchases of Treasury securities toward those that had longer remaining maturities-if such adjustments were deemed appropriate to support the attainment of the Committee's objectives.』
『A few participants underlined the importance of continuing to evaluate the balance of costs and risks associated with asset purchases against the benefits arising from purchases.』
『Participants shared their views on the appropriate evolution of asset purchases once substantial further progress had been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.』
「substantial further progress」が起こった場合の話キタコレ!
『A number of participants noted that, once such progress had been attained, a gradual tapering of purchases could begin and the process thereafter could generally follow a sequence similar to the one implemented during the large-scale purchase program in 2013 and 2014.』
その場合は緩やかなテーパリングを開始して、その後は2013〜2014のようなプロセスを取るのが適切である、と何人か(A number of)の参加者が指摘した、というお洒落なものがありまして、まあさっきの所でもちょっとありましたがわざわざパラグラフにしているのがお茶目ですね。
[外部リンク] 08, 2021 U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics Council on Foreign Relations, New York, New York (via webcast)
・経済に関する説明がやたらめったら強気(ただし最後に物価は下振れリスクと言って政策面では中和)
最初のコーナーが『Current Economic Situation and Outlook』ですが、最初がおもむろに、
『In the second quarter of last year, the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic and the mitigation efforts put in place to contain it delivered the most severe blow to the U.S. economy since the Great Depression. 』
『While gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter downshifted from the once-in-a-century 33 percent annualized rate of growth reported in the third quarter, it is clear that since the spring of 2020, the economy has turned out to be more resilient in adapting to the virus, and more responsive to monetary and fiscal policy support, than many predicted.』
ということで、経済は「the economy has turned out to be more resilient in adapting to the virus, and more responsive to monetary and fiscal policy support, than many predicted.」と仰せでして、まあ大体最近FEDの中心的な見解として出されているものと同じ(なのはクラリダなので当たり前ですが)であることを確認しましたが、ここでの言い方でほほーと思ったのは「経済がレジリアント」というのもさることながら「金融政策や財政政策によるサポートに対する経済の反応しやすさが、多くの人達が見ていたよりも大きい」という部分かな、と思いました(個人の感想です)。
『Indeed, it is worth highlighting that in the baseline projections of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) summarized in the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), most of my colleagues and I revised up our outlook for the economy over the medium term, projecting a relatively rapid return to levels of employment and inflation consistent with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate as compared with the recovery from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).2』
『In particular, the median FOMC participant projects that by the end of 2023-a little less than three years from now-the unemployment rate will have fallen below 4 percent, and PCE (personal consumption expenditures) inflation will have returned to 2 percent. Following the GFC, it took more than eight years for employment and inflation to return to similar mandate-consistent levels.』
んな訳で12月FOMCのSEPの話になるんですが、ここはその結果の話をしているのですけれども、「it is worth highlighting that〜」からの「most of my colleagues and I revised up our outlook for the economy」ということですが、その次に「projecting a relatively rapid return to levels of employment and inflation〜」ってことで、前回の金融危機後の回復なんぞはメではない勢いでのマンデート水準への戻りを見込んでおります、と来ております。じゃあ何でドットプロットは2023年末でも政策変更なしやねん、と言いたくなりますが、まあ要するに早期の緩和からの出口は市場に想定させたくないという事で例のドットだったということですかいな、ともうドットプロット止めた方がええんちゃうのという気がしてくるこのクラリダの説明。
という訳で経済に関する次の(このコーナー最後の)パラグラフ。
『While the recent surge in new COVID cases and hospitalizations is cause for concern and a source of downside risk to the very near-term outlook, the welcome news on the development of several effective vaccines indicates to me that the prospects for the economy in 2021 and beyond have brightened and the downside risk to the outlook has diminished.』
先行きの話になるようですが、コロナの方は「cause for concern and a source of downside risk to the very near-term outlook」とは言っているんですが、何せ「very near-term」って言ってる辺りがもう先行きの強気っぷりを示している訳で、返す刀で複数の有効なワクチンもぶっこまれてきましたのでおっけーおっけーダウンサイドリスクもいずれ消えるっしょ、というエライ威勢の良い話をしております。
『The two new SEP charts that we released for the first time following the December FOMC meeting speak to these issues by providing information on how the risks and uncertainties that surround the modal or baseline projections have evolved over time.』
『While nearly all participants continued to judge that the level of uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated, fewer participants saw the balance of risks as weighted to the downside than in September.』
『Although a little more than half of participants judged risks to be broadly balanced for economic activity, a similar number continued to see risks weighted to the downside for inflation.』
次のコーナーが『The Latest FOMC Decision and the New Monetary Policy Framework』でしゅ。2部構成になっていてこちらが第2部ですの。
『At our most recent FOMC meetings, the Committee made important changes to our policy statement that upgraded our forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate and asset purchases, and that also provided unprecedented information about our policy reaction function.』
12月のガイダンス変更に関する説明ですな目を皿のようにして鑑賞鑑賞。
『As announced in the September statement and reiterated in November and December, with inflation running persistently below 2 percent, our policy will aim to achieve inflation outcomes that keep inflation expectations well anchored at our 2 percent longer-run goal.3』
『We also expect it will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment, until inflation has risen to 2 percent, and until inflation is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.』
まあ物価がホイホイと上昇しない、という見通しの元でこの説明になっていまして、まあホイホイと上昇しない限りにおいては金融緩和スタンスの所の文言とこれって差異は無いですな、という感じではありますし、そう思っているからこういうガイダンス文言を出してくるんですな。まあ今のところはそこまで気にしなくて良いのでしょうが、物価がホイホイと上がりだした時の用心は一応していまして、これ最初の緩和スタンスは「We expect to maintain」の直球表現(コミットメントではないけど)で、金利のガイダンスは「We also expect it will be appropriate to maintain」となっていて、ワンクッション入れた表現になっているので、まあ物価が上がりだすと面白い事になるんですが、さてどうなりますやらという事です。
『In addition, in the December statement, we combined our forward guidance for the federal fund rate with enhanced, outcome-based guidance about our asset purchases.』
12月に追加でぶっこんだのはAPPのガイダンス。
『We indicated that we will continue to increase our holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and our holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.』
原文の方では「substantial further progress」がイタリックになっていますが、クラリダさんがお茶目なのはわざわざイタリックにしているというのに、この「substantial further progress」とは何ぞや、という話をしれっと完全スルーしている所でして、うーんこの狸と思ってしまいました。
というのはこのパラグラフは上記の所で終わっていて次のパラグラフになりまして、「substantial further progress」の説明をしないままで通しておりまして、まあ何か利上げはよーせんけどAPPの方はしらっと縮小を狙っている(経済情勢が見通し通りならば、という前提はあるけど)のかもね、とは思わせてくれるパターンですが、まあ利上げしないから多少長期金利が上がるにしろ限度というのがあるじゃろうし、そこらへんは高を括っているのかも知れんなとか勝手に(希望的観測も含め)思いましたがさてどうなんだが。
『The changes to the policy statement that we made over the fall bring our policy guidance in line with the new framework outlined in the revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy that the Committee approved last August.4』
『In our new framework, we acknowledge that policy decisions going forward will be based on the FOMC's estimates of "shortfalls [emphasis added] of employment from its maximum level"-not "deviations." 』
『This language means that going forward, a low unemployment rate, in and of itself, will not be sufficient to trigger a tightening of monetary policy absent any evidence from other indicators that inflation is at risk of moving above mandate-consistent levels.』
『With regard to our price-stability mandate, while the new statement maintains our definition that the longer-run goal for inflation is 2 percent, it elevates the importance-and the challenge-of keeping inflation expectations well anchored at 2 percent in a world in which an effective-lower-bound constraint is, in downturns, binding on the federal funds rate.』
毎度の「長期間2%を下回っているのでインフレ期待を2%にアンカーさせる政策が重要」という奴。
『To this end, the new statement conveys the Committee's judgment that, in order to anchor expectations at the 2 percent level consistent with price stability, it "seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time," and-in the same sentence-that therefore "following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time."』
よってロンガーラン云々にはこのような説明をしていまっせ、という話からの、
『As Chair Powell indicated in his Jackson Hole remarks, we think of our new framework as an evolution from "flexible inflation targeting" to "flexible average inflation targeting."5 While this new framework represents a robust evolution in our monetary policy strategy, this strategy is in service to the dual-mandate goals of monetary policy assigned to the Federal Reserve by the Congress?maximum employment and price stability-which remain unchanged.6』
となっていまして、この辺はいつも通りの説明になっておりました。
・最後はまあ何か「ほーそうですか(棒読み)」な締めである
2部構成と申し上げましたが最後に『Concluding Remarks』があります。
『While our interest rate and balance sheet tools are providing powerful support to the economy and will continue to do so as the recovery progresses, it will take some time for economic activity and employment to return to levels that prevailed at the business cycle peak reached last February.』
『We are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy and to help ensure that the recovery from this difficult period will be as robust as possible.』
