『I just wanted to draw on your response to Annette's question on rate hikes earlier, and wanted to confirm: are you not willing to repeat today, as you said recently in December, that it's “very unlikely” that you will raise interest rates this year?(後半割愛)』
という念押し質問に対して一言でも回答できそうなもんだが妙に長い説明をするラガルドはん。
『On your first question about interest rate hikes: as I said, I don't make pledges without conditionalities and I did make those statements at our last press conference on the basis of the assessment, on the basis of the data that we had. It was, as all pledges of that nature, conditional.』
『So what I am saying here now is that come March, when we have additional data, when we've been able to integrate in our analytical work the numbers that we have received in the last few days, we will be in a position to make a thorough assessment again on the basis of data.』
新しいデータが集まる3月定例理事会(=見通しの改訂が行われる)で色々と考えていくわよ!
『I cannot prejudge what that will be, but we are only a few weeks away from the closing time at which we provide the analytical work, prepare the projections for the Governing Council, and then come with some recommendations and make our decisions.』
『We make them gradually because we are not here to rock the boat, if I may say. We are going to use all instruments, all optionalities in order to respond to the situation - but the situation has indeed changed. You will have noticed that in the monetary policy statement that I just read, we do refer to the upside risk to inflation in our projection. So the situation having changed, we need to continue to monitor it very carefully. We need to assess the situation on the basis of the data, and then we will have to take a judgement.(後半割愛)』
『(前半割愛)Secondly, you were talking about how inflation risks are tilted to the upside, particularly in the short term. Could you give us some more thoughts on the medium-term and specifically the assumption that inflation will fall below 2% and stay there in 2023 and 2024?』
こちらに対するお答え。
『You had a second question, which had to do with: what's my prediction about the medium-term inflation? Well, again I'm very sorry to say, but we do assess risk to the upside for the near term, particularly for the near term. We're not excluding, but we say particularly for the near term. We will know better what impact it will have on the medium-term inflation.』
『Let me just say one thing: we are getting much closer to target and this is so because in the medium term there are factors, drivers of inflation that are helping us finally reach - hopefully - that target. That has to do with the labour market that I was discussing earlier. That has to do with the broad-based inflation that we have, which concerns more than 60% of the items. It has to do with the inflation expectations which, whether based on surveys or market-based, are now heading very close to or at target.』
『So this is all a good development and I'm saying that with a concern because I know how much hardship it imposes on all of us Europeans, and particularly those who have to fill up the tank and who have to put food on the table, because it is hard. Prices are going up very much at the moment. We see them continuing to stay high for a few more months, but then declining over the course of '22 and then our medium-term numbers, we will have more certainty at our March meeting.』
『The first one is on inflation. You mentioned several times now the upside surprises of inflation in December and January. Does that mean that the December projections from the ECB staff, that they are already outdated, especially the projections that inflation will fall below 2% in 2023, in 2024?(後半割愛)』
『(前半に2つ目の質問の回答をしてたので前半割愛)On the upside surprise: we did not only use the word upside in relation to surprises; we used it in relation to risk. Risk is to the upside in our projection. We hardly ever - I'd have to double-check in the last 20 years, we may have in the past - but in the recent past we have not actually mentioned, we have not included in our monetary policy statement the characterisation of risks in relation to inflation. 』
『I think that is a very explicit indication that it might very well be significantly higher than what we had expected over the course of the year, and possibly higher than we had anticipated at the end of the year. Risk is to the upside, in particular in the near term.』
『I have got a quick question on your March projections that you've highlighted now repeatedly: if those updated forecasts show inflation exceeding your 2% target in 2023 and 2024, would that, in your present view, be a reason to start slowing bond purchases earlier than currently suggested?』
『Thank you for your pointed question, but I am not going to speculate on what the Governing Council will decide. I think you have the answer, but I am not going to speculate here on what the decision will be.』
[外部リンク] with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Gerald Braunberger and Christian Siedenbiedel 23 February 2022
フランクフルターアルゲマイン、でしたっけ。いきなり最初の質問がド直球すぎて草も生えない。
『Mr Lane, is monetary policy normalisation in the euro area edging closer?』
これはひどいwww
『In times of great volatility and uncertainty we should not make absolute statements. But the data clearly suggest that we could be moving closer to our medium-term target.』
データは我々のターゲットに経済が近づいている事を示している(あとはお察しください)ですな。
『Has your assessment of the appropriate monetary policy stance changed with recent developments in the Ukraine crisis?』
ウクライナ危機は金融政策スタンスにどういう影響があるのか?
『We will conduct a comprehensive assessment of the economic outlook at our March meeting. This includes the recent developments on the geopolitical front. These not only have implications for oil and gas prices, but also for investor confidence, consumer confidence, trade and so on.』
We will conduct a comprehensive assessment of the economic outlook at our March meeting.と回答するのはまあ順当と言えば順当ですけれども、この質疑の次に質問来るのですけど、こうなってくると3月のECBがやたら注目度高まる、という事になりますわな。
『So in terms of inflation there is not just the mechanical effect from commodity prices, for the medium-term outlook the macroeconomic effects need to be incorporated. As we already flagged at the February meeting, the geopolitical tensions are a very important risk factor right now, for Europe in particular.』
『So the March meeting of the ECB’s Governing Council could be exciting. What will happen next with the bond purchases and the key policy rates?』
いやそれはWhat will happen nextとか言われてもシランガナとしか答えようがないがな・・・・・・・・
『It’s important not to anticipate the decision that the ECB’s Governing Council will take in March. A lot can happen before then and, as mentioned, there is much uncertainty in the world. But our strategy is crystal clear: we want inflation to stabilise around two per cent in the medium term.』
物価目標の達成、これが我々の目的です(キリッ)と来てからの、
『There are three possible ways of getting there.』
ほほう。
『First, if the medium-term inflation outlook falls well below our target, the ECB must pursue accommodative, i.e. loose, monetary policy.』
『Second, if medium-term inflation settles above our target, we would need to tighten monetary policy.』
この二つは当たり前すぎて、と思ったら・・・・・・・
『Third, if inflation settles around our target in the medium term, then a normalisation of monetary policy, as we call it, would suffice.』
・何で前回いれた“in either direction”を削除したの?何で相変わらず金利のガイダンスが“or lower”なの?
質疑応答始まって4分の1くらいの辺りの質疑になります。
『The first one is that from your guidance about standing ready to act you removed “in either direction” and I'm curious about the significance of that, if there is a significance. But in the interest rate guidance you left “or lower”. The two seem to be incoherent to me because that would mean if lower is an option and you are not ready to act in both directions, then you're only going down. Surely you didn't mean to say that?(後半割愛、というか次)』
2月声明文 [外部リンク] Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target over the medium term.』(2月声明文) 『The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate and in either direction, to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target over the medium term.』(12月声明文)
となっており、「物価が中期的に2%で安定するために適切な対応を取る」の文言にあった「両方向に」というのを削除したのは何ですねん、その割に金利ガイダンスの方が相変わらず「・・・・the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it sees inflation reaching 2% well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and・・・・・・・」と「現状維持または利下げ」になってるのはどないなってますねん、という質問。
ラガルドはんの回答。
『On your first point: you've done a good compare reading of the various paragraphs that are included in our monetary policy statement.』
『It is a fact that we have removed the portion that says in both directions. We now say the Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target over the medium term.』
何か言ってることの意味がないなおい。
『I think “as appropriate” - which we debated within the Governing Council - captures the vast array of optionalities that we have available depending on the data that we receive, and as, hopefully, some of the uncertainty we have around clears off. So we thought that “as appropriate” was perfectly adequate to cover all the moves that we could take and all the optionalities that are available for us.』
『I think based on recollection - because we debated that a little bit - the “in either direction” was inserted once to really indicate that there was a change of tack and that we were no longer in that low inflation environment for such a long period of time.』
ほとんど禅問答ですが・・・・・・・・
『That was inserted in the December monetary policy statement.』
確かに10月の声明文([外部リンク] either direction”」と緩和一辺倒ではないよというメッセージを出しました、と言いたかったらしい。ナンジャソラだが言ってることの理屈は分かる。
『We are clearly receiving data that inform us about the high level of inflation, certainly the upside risk to our projection, particularly for the short term, and that is the reason why we thought that “as appropriate” would cover all the optionalities that we have.(後半割愛)』
『(前半割愛)The second question is about the quality of your projections: do you maintain your full confidence in the ECB's projections? The track record of ECB projections has been quite mixed in recent quarters. It's clear to me that the models are not equipped to be modelling a once-in-a-lifetime event. What do you think about the projections going forward?』
スタッフ見通しが最近外れまくっているようですが、というのを丁寧に表現すると(してねえか)こうなる。
『(前半割愛)Now, I'm glad you're asking me about the quality of the projection by staff.』
さっきと同じパターンだな。
『It's actually interesting because as managing director of the IMF I did have exactly the same questions in due course in my previous life. What it means is that providing forecasts, elaborating projections is a difficult exercise that is based on the assumptions that you make and on the models that you use.』
経済見通し作るのは難しいのよ、とまあそらそうだという話から始まりまして、
『I have full confidence that staff do their best to include all the sensible, reasonable, rational assumptions that they can. I can assure you that they go through a whole array of scenarios: what if, what if, what if. They use the models that they use - that many of you listening to me are also using. It is hardly surprising that most projectionists, most forecasters have also been surprised by the inflation numbers in particular in December and January.』
物凄く頑張っているんですが、と説明するのはまあ当然ですけど。
『Very few of them could've anticipated the energy shock, the massive shock that is hitting our economies around the world, but particularly so in Europe, where we are so vastly export[1]-dependent(脚注有りますが、ここはImport dependentの言い間違いなのは明らかということです、エネ価格上昇のショックが外生的だから誰もが予測できなかった、というような話をしていますね) when it comes to our energy. That clearly has an impact that was not anticipated because it was not in the assumptions.』
追記した所に書いてしまいましたが、エネルギー価格ショックはありゃ予想するの無理ですわ、と。
『Now, all the work that is done by staff to elaborate on those projections, all that work is also assessed by the Governing Council and each and every Governor of each and every national central bank is consulting with their staff as well. Their staff are also feeding data into the aggregate projections that we produce at least in one case out of two every year - sorry, two out of four. But the determination is made by the Governing Council.』
『Indeed, there is an element of discretionary judgement. We don't take projections just at face value and this is particularly relevant in the current circumstances given the level of uncertainty, given the geopolitical risks around. There has to be an element of judgement that actually belongs to the table of the Governing Council.』
[外部リンク] in the near-term and the medium-term Opening remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at MNI Market News Webcast Frankfurt am Main, 17 February 202
『In these brief opening remarks, I wish to discuss the forces shaping near-term and medium-term inflation dynamics.』
ということで中短期のインフレーションダイナミクスについて説明しますよ、という話です。
・短いタームのインフレーションダイナミクスはコロナ由来の供給制約とエネルギー価格が寄与
ってな話を最初はします。
『On near-term inflation, I emphasised in a blog post last week that the current high inflation rates have been largely shaped by a pandemic cycle that has generated global bottlenecks for manufactured goods over the last year and, most importantly for the euro area, has seen a very substantial surge in energy prices in recent months.[1]』
「I emphasised in a blog post last week」については [外部リンク] ECB BLOG Bottlenecks and monetary policy Blog post by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB[1] Frankfurt am Main, 10 February 2022
『A comprehensive analysis of the implications of high energy prices for near-term and medium-term inflation dynamics should take into account four factors:』
エネルギー価格の物価への影響は4つのパスがあると。
『first, the direct impact through the energy component of the HICP; second, the indirect impact, since energy is an important input for many other components of the HICP, such as food, transportation, goods and many consumer services; third, the potential for second-round effects on wages, with due differentiation between a one-off or catch-up wage adjustment and a revision in inflation expectations that would have persistent effects on wage growth; and, fourth, the macroeconomic impact, with high energy prices operating through negative income and wealth effects, while also affecting energy-sensitive production and investment plans.』
『At a global level, the macroeconomic impact of an energy shock differs between energy-producing and energy-using regions. Since the euro area is a significant net importer of energy, a surge in energy prices constitutes a significant adverse terms of trade shock. Higher import prices for energy reduces the disposable incomes of households and the cash flows of energy-intensive firms. The impact of this terms of trade shock on euro area macroeconomic dynamics will warrant close monitoring in the coming quarters.』
でもってこの「マクロ的に欧州に取ってのコスト増」というのをああでもないこうでもないと更に説明して、「The impact of this terms of trade shock on euro area macroeconomic dynamics will warrant close monitoring in the coming quarters.」と説明しているのは何ですねんという感じですが、まあこれって素直に読みますと(レーンさんの文章は基本的に素直に読んで問題ない、というのが今までのパターンでしたので素直に読みますが)これ即ち「資源価格上昇の影響がマイナスに効いてくる点を注意してみないといけない」なのでありまして、つまりは物価高対応で金融緩和の縮小はするのですけど、その一方で資源価格高止まりの場合はそれが景気にマイナスになるのを勘案すると、そんなに派手な縮小はできないですよね、って話をしているのに等しいと思いました(個人の感想です)。
・インフレ期待がシフトする場合とはどういう事や的な話、というのが来ました
『Moving from near-term to medium-term inflation dynamics, there is a clear potential linkage: if currently-high inflation causes a rethink about the likely level of medium-term inflation, a persistent shift in inflation expectations can play a significant role in determining inflation dynamics. There are several mechanisms at work here.』
『First, at any given time, the recent history of inflation is an important input in shaping the beliefs of households, firms and investors. Before the pandemic, there were widespread concerns that a long period of below-target inflation in the euro area had led to a downside de-anchoring of inflation expectations. In particular, there was a widely-held conjecture that myriad structural forces (combined with the effective lower bound for monetary policy) would keep inflationary pressures low for an extended period, with persistent monetary accommodation only gradually returning inflation to the two per cent target.』
『The currently-high inflation rate calls this into question this conjecture through a stark demonstration that inflation is not destined to be always super low.』
『Of course, precisely how much medium-term inflation expectations might be affected by the current burst of inflation will depend on the intensity and duration of this spell of above-target inflation, the nature of its underlying drivers (in particular, the balance between external supply shocks versus domestic demand shocks) and the extent to which the central bank is trusted to deliver the two per cent target over the medium term.』
『It is especially important that the central bank is seen as symmetric in its commitment to the two per cent target - being fully prepared to react proportionately if there is a threat that inflation will settle above two per cent in the medium term, while also making sure not to over-react to the extent that there is a risk that high near-term inflation might induce an excessive monetary tightening that pushes inflation persistently below the two per cent target over the medium term.』
でもってこの状況に中銀は何するのか、という話が来たのですが、結局のところ「symmetric in its commitment to the two per cent target」ということで、言うはやすし行うはきよしとはよく言ったもので、これ言うだけなら別に言えるのですが、肝心の具体策は無いしどうせ出たとこ勝負になるんでしょう。
『Moreover, it should also be recognised that medium-term inflation expectations have been increasing from a low base towards the two per cent inflation target over the last year, even before the energy shock.』
『In the specific context of the euro area, there are several factors indicating that the excessively-low inflation environment that prevailed from 2014 to2019 (a period over which inflation averaged just 0.9 per cent) might not re-emerge even after the pandemic cycle is over.』
『First, the scale of the fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic demonstrated the strength of the commitment to delivering macro-financial stability, rather than seeing a return of the pre-pandemic dynamics that acted as a powerful anti-inflationary force after the global financial crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis (the twin crises between 2008 and 2013). 』
『Importantly, this included substantial policy action at both EU and national level; with the former including the SURE programme, extra funding for the European Investment Bank and, most significantly, the NGEU initiative. In particular, the medium-term nature of the NGEU programme has provided an important anchor for medium-term economic prospects, especially for the main beneficiaries.』
『At the national level, we have witnessed the deployment of large-scale government interventions to buffer the impact of the pandemic shock on household and corporate incomes - through temporary employment protection schemes and tax cuts, among other initiatives - and to facilitate the normal financing of economic activity - especially through large-scale public loan guarantees.』
この辺は今言ったコロナ対応の各国の取り組みの例示。
『All this stands in contrast to the macroeconomic configuration that characterised the period after the twin crises which involved very muted aggregate demand, with many governments, households, firms and banks focused on sustained deleveraging after a period of excessive imbalances.』
『Second, the re-anchoring of medium-term inflation expectations towards two percent has also been supported by the clarity of the ECB’s new monetary policy strategy, which was finalised in July 2021 and backed up by its revised interest rate forward guidance. The revised strategy makes it clear that the monetary policy of the ECB is dedicated to delivering the two per cent target over the medium term, with a symmetric aversion to below-target and above-target deviations. 』
『The simplicity and transparency of the two per cent target increases accountability and improves clarity compared to the previous target of “below, but close to, two per cent.”』
ラガルドはんの大梯子外しのどこが「The simplicity and transparency」な政策なのかよくわからんのですが、まあとにかく例の「2%シンメトリー」によってインフレ期待が下がりにくくなったので低インフレ固定みたいな事にはならないらしいです。
・構造要因も今後は低インフレを抑止することになるでしょう、だそうです
『Third, in relation to structural forces, some revisions to beliefs about the operation of the world economy might also be contributing to a shift in inflation expectations.』
『In particular, the level of excess capacity in global manufacturing might be structurally diminishing to the extent that China has embarked on a transition from an export-led to a domestically-focused economy.』
『In related fashion, rising wages and incomes in emerging economies mean that demand-side factors might be more powerful than supply-side factors in relation to the impact of globalisation in the coming years. In parallel, the increasing visibility of aging dynamics in some Western economies - a trend that is also becoming visible in some emerging areas (especially China) - may result in a less dynamic labour supply at the global level.』
新興国においても賃金上昇圧力が高まっているのも要因とな。
『The net impact of demographic change on inflation dynamics is not straightforward: while a lower labour supply may potentially have a direct impact on labour costs, it could also have adverse implications for the potential growth rate of the world economy.』
世界的な人口動態の変化の影響はあまり単純ではないようです。
『Furthermore, the net impact on labour supply in individual regions will also depend on international migration policies that can amplify or mitigate regional imbalances in labour supply. 』
『Moreover, in relation to structural forces, the pandemic may also have accelerated the digitalisation of the world economy, which could operate as an anti-inflationary force by increasing national and international competition, including in previously-sheltered services sectors.
『The carbon transition constitutes an important structural force that will be a primary contributor to macroeconomic dynamics in this decade and in the decades to come.』
カーボントランジションの影響、とかしれっと入れているのがチャーミングですが、更にチャーミングなのはちゃんと「will be a primary contributor to macroeconomic dynamics in this decade and in the decades to come.」と長い時間の話である、と入れていることによって、足元のインフレが怪しからんからカーボンニュートラルとかちょっと考え直せみたいな意見が出てくるのを抑止しているんですねわかります。
『The net impact of the carbon transition on inflation dynamics will depend on the exact transition path that emerges and the time horizon considered. In particular, the mechanical impact of the carbon transition on energy prices (which, in turn, will depend on the evolving mix between fossil fuels and renewables in energy production) must be assessed jointly with the implications of a sustained phase of transition-focused corporate, household and public investment.』
『In particular, the impact on inflation dynamics must take take into account the shift in the composition of economic activity between investment and consumption and the wealth effects of the transition on the value of carbon-intensive assets, including housing. 』
『Moving towards a longer horizon, massive investment in renewable energy technologies should deliver sizeable efficiency gains in the production and use of energy over time, reducing overall expenditure on energy. Clearly, an orderly transition will have a more benign macroeconomic impact than a deferred process that requires sharper policy adjustment at a later stage.』
おなじみECBのトップページ [外部リンク] in the near- and medium-term
If inflation stabilises around our 2% target in the medium term, this will allow for a gradual normalisation of monetary policy, says Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. We will respond proportionately and tolerate neither under nor overreactions to emerging inflation risks.
ということで、「We will respond proportionately」っていうことで、「釣り合った対応をする」っていうまあバランスアプローチみたいなこと言いながら、「tolerate neither under nor overreactions to emerging inflation risks」ってインフレ上振れも防ぐし金融の締め過ぎも防ぎますっていうのがECBのトップページにドドーンと置かれていまして、ニュースの方はその話ですわな。
[外部リンク] in the near-term and the medium-term Opening remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at MNI Market News Webcast Frankfurt am Main, 17 February 2022
『In summary, monetary policy must take into account both the near-term and medium-term forces shaping inflation dynamics. In line with its new monetary policy strategy, it should be clear that the ECB will set its monetary policy to deliver its symmetric two per cent target over the medium term, tolerating neither over-reactions nor under-reactions to emerging inflation risks.』
というのがサムネに書いてあった話でして、んじゃ具体的にどうするのかという話ですが、
『In particular, if the medium-term inflation dynamic is anticipated to stabilise around the two per cent target, this will permit a gradual normalisation of monetary policy. Whereas if inflation threatens to persist significantly above the two per cent target over the medium term, a tightening of monetary policy will be required. And finally, if inflation is anticipated to fall significantly below the two percent target over the medium term, setting an accommodative monetary policy will be necessary.』
中期的なインフレーションダイナミクスが2%で安定して推移すると見込まれるのであれば、(medium-term inflation dynamic is anticipated、という言い方ですね)金融政策の正常化はグラデュアルに行うでしょう(this will permit a gradual normalisation of monetary policy)、と最初に言ってまして、これ自体はまあそうですなという感じですが、ECBちゃんもしれっと「正常化」は所与のようになっているのが実はお洒落だったりしますよねこれ。
でもって2番目は物価がサガランチ会長で持続的に顕著に2%上回ると中期的に見込まれるんだったら「金融政策のタイトニングが必要(a tightening of monetary policy will be required.)と「タイトニング」とか仰せ。
[外部リンク] of the Federal Open Market Committee January 25-26, 2022
A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held by videoconference on Tuesday, January 25, 2022, at 9:00 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, January 26, 2022, at 9:00 a.m.1
昨日アタクシにしては割と長々と引用した訳ですが。折角なので『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』の1パラから3パラも読んでみます(補足のようなもんですな)今回は逆順読みしないで普通の順番に読みます。
『In their discussion of current economic conditions, participants noted that indicators of economic activity and employment had continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic had improved in recent months but continued to be affected by the recent sharp rise in COVID-19 cases. Job gains had been solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate had declined substantially. Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy had continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation. Overall financial conditions had remained accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses. Participants judged that the path of the economy continued to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations and an easing of supply constraints were expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation. Risks to the economic outlook remained, including from new variants of the virus.』
『With regard to the economic outlook, participants agreed that the Omicron wave of the pandemic would weigh on economic activity in the first quarter of 2022. Indeed, sectors of the economy that are particularly sensitive to pandemic-related disruptions, including travel, leisure, and restaurants, were experiencing sharp reductions in activity as a result of the Omicron wave. Participants commented that, for many afflicted individuals and families, the virus continued to cause great hardship. Participants concurred that if the Omicron wave dissipated quickly, then economic activity would likely strengthen rapidly and economic growth for 2022 as a whole would be robust.』
『Participants cited strong household balance sheets, rising wages, and effective adaptation to the pandemic by the business sector as factors supporting the outlook for strong growth this year. However, a number of participants noted that there was a risk that additional variants could weigh on economic activity this year.』
『Participants noted that supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages had continued to limit businesses' ability to meet strong demand, with these challenges exacerbated by the emergence and spread of the Omicron variant.』
『In particular, the Omicron wave had led to much more widespread worker absences due to illness, virus exposure, or caregiving needs, which had curtailed activity in many sectors including airlines, trucking, and warehousing.』
オミクロン効果で今までのコロナ拡大ケースと同じような問題が労働供給に生じていると。
『Some participants reported that their business contacts were hopeful that the effects of the Omicron wave would be relatively short lived.』
はいはい希望的観測希望的観測。
『Nevertheless, several participants reported that their contacts expected the ongoing labor shortages and other supply constraints to persist well after the acute effects of the Omicron wave had waned.』
一方で冷静にオミクロン終わっても相変わらず労働者不足の問題続くんでネーノという指摘も多いようで、
『Participants' contacts also reported continued widespread input cost pressures, which, amid generally robust demand, they reported having largely been able to pass on to their customers.』
『A few participants commented that agricultural businesses were experiencing higher input costs, and those higher costs were putting strain on the finances of those firms even as they experienced generally strong demand for their products.』
HTML版のリンクはこちら [外部リンク] of the Federal Open Market Committee January 25-26, 2022
A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System was held by videoconference on Tuesday, January 25, 2022, at 9:00 a.m. and continued on Wednesday, January 26, 2022, at 9:00 a.m.1
というわけでそこを飛ばして毎度おなじみ『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』を毎度の逆順読みで読みますが、今回は構成上途中でワープを入れる所存です。
・地均しの成功を祝って出たとこ勝負の重要性を示すパラグラフとな
『Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook』ですが実は今回アタクシ、上記のように頭から目を泳がせた(読んだとは言ってない)ので、いつもの逆順じゃなくて正順で読んでおりますサーセン。
14パラグラフ目になります。
『In their discussion of the outlook for monetary policy, many participants noted the influence on financial conditions of the Committee's recent communications and viewed these communications as helpful in shifting private-sector expectations regarding the policy outlook into better alignment with the Committee's assessment of appropriate policy.』
この部分、「many participants noted the influence on financial conditions of the Committee's recent communications and viewed these communications as helpful in shifting private-sector expectations」っていうのは、要するに「利上げなどの地均しが成功したのは非常に良かった」と言っている訳でして、この間の市場動向に1ミリも動じていないどころかむしろウェルカムと仰せなのがお洒落。
『Participants continued to stress that maintaining flexibility to implement appropriate policy adjustments on the basis of risk-management considerations should be a guiding principle in conducting policy in the current highly uncertain environment.』
ここは前までの話を読まないで読むと何なのですが、要するにこの人達「出たとこ勝負でエイヤー」の世界に入ってきていまして(というか金融政策って本来そういうものであって、目先のタームならともかく、1年も2年も先のゴールを決めてそこに向かってメジャードペースってそれ発想が計画経済かよという話であって、資本主義のダイナミズム云々ってことで考えれば「その時々の情勢を勘案して最適な政策をとる」という名の出たとこ勝負するっきゃないですわな。ある程度金融政策というのはリアクティブなものなのですから)、英語だと品が良く見えてしまいますが、「Participants continued to stress that maintaining flexibility to implement appropriate policy adjustments」って「flexibility」とか言ってますけど要は出たとこ勝負。
『Most participants noted that, if inflation does not move down as they expect, it would be appropriate for the Committee to remove policy accommodation at a faster pace than they currently anticipate. 』
『Some participants commented on the risk that financial conditions might tighten unduly in response to a rapid removal of policy accommodation. A few participants remarked that this risk could be mitigated through clear and effective communication of the Committee's assessments of the economic outlook, the risks around the outlook, and the appropriate path for monetary policy.』
『Participants discussed the implications of the economic outlook for the likely timing and pace for removing policy accommodation.』
正常化ペースの話。
『Compared with conditions in 2015 when the Committee last began a process of removing monetary policy accommodation, participants viewed that there was a much stronger outlook for growth in economic activity, substantially higher inflation, and a notably tighter labor market. Consequently, most participants suggested that a faster pace of increases in the target range for the federal funds rate than in the post-2015 period would likely be warranted, should the economy evolve generally in line with the Committee's expectation.』
2015年に正常化着手を決定した時に対して経済も物価も雇用も強い(というのを「a much stronger outlook for growth in economic activity, substantially higher inflation, and a notably tighter labor market」とこれでもかと言わんばかりの威勢の良い表現で説明しているのがチャーミング)ので正常化速度はその時よりも速いよ。
『Even so, participants emphasized that the appropriate path of policy would depend on economic and financial developments and their implications for the outlook and the risks around the outlook, and they will be updating their assessments of the appropriate setting for the policy stance at each meeting.』
『Participants noted that the removal of policy accommodation in current circumstances depended on the timing and pace of both increases in the target range of the federal funds rate and the reduction in the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. In this context, a number of participants commented that conditions would likely warrant beginning to reduce the size of the balance sheet sometime later this year.』
政策の正常化には利上げとバランスシートの縮小が含まれます、って指摘の後、「sometime later this year」からはバランスシート縮小開始が適切、といってるのだが、7月のFOMCの次は9月に飛ぶわけでして、これどっちなんだよという感じですな。8月にFOMCが計画されてるなら8月じゃろと思えるのですが。
・テーパリング即時終了を意見してたのは2名いたようですな
第12パラになります。
『In light of elevated inflation pressures and the strong labor market, participants continued to judge that the Committee's net asset purchases should be concluded soon.』
『Most participants preferred to continue to reduce the Committee's net asset purchases according to the schedule announced in December, bringing them to an end in early March. A couple of participants stated that they favored ending the Committee's net asset purchases sooner to send an even stronger signal that the Committee was committed to bringing down inflation.』
『In their consideration of the stance of monetary policy, participants agreed that it would be appropriate for the Committee to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent in support of the Committee's objectives of maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run.』
『In discussing why beginning to remove policy accommodation could soon be warranted, participants noted that inflation continued to run well above 2 percent and generally judged the risks to the outlook for inflation as tilted to the upside.』
『Participants also assessed that the labor market was strong, having made substantial, broad-based progress over the past year.』
この辺の話はちょっと前の方のパラでも議論があります。
・金融環境に関する議論が結構比較的ネチネチと書いてある印象
第10パラグラフはファイナンシャルスタビリティー。
『Participants who commented on issues related to financial stability cited a number of factors that could represent potential vulnerabilities to the financial system.』
『A few participants noted that asset valuations were elevated across a range of markets and raised the concern that a major realignment of asset prices could contribute to a future downturn.』
幅広いアセット価格の上昇は将来のバリュエーション訂正の時に金融安定化に対する懸念となる。
『A couple of these participants judged that prolonged accommodative financial conditions could be contributing to financial imbalances.』
ということを指摘した人の中の2名は「prolonged accommodative financial conditions could be contributing to financial imbalances」とどこかの日銀に読ませたいことをご指摘になっておられます、イイハナシダナー。
『A couple of other participants cited reasons why elevated asset valuations might prove to be less of a threat to financial stability than in past reversals of asset prices. In particular, they noted the relatively healthy balance sheet positions of households and nonfinancial firms, the well-capitalized and liquid banking sector, and the fact that the rise in housing prices was not being fueled by a large increase in mortgage debt as suggesting that the financial system might prove resilient to shocks. 』
『Some participants saw emerging risks to financial stability associated with the rapid growth in crypto-assets and decentralized finance platforms. 』
仮想通貨バブルに対する警戒キタコレ、とか
『A few participants pointed to risks associated with highly leveraged, nonbank financial institutions or the potential vulnerability of prime money market funds to a sudden withdrawal of liquidity.』
『In their discussion of risks to the outlook, participants agreed that uncertainty regarding the path of inflation was elevated and that risks to inflation were weighted to the upside.』
『Participants cited several such risks, including the zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy in China that had the potential to further disrupt supply chains, the possibility of geopolitical turmoil that could cause increases in global energy prices or exacerbate global supply shortages, a worsening of the pandemic, persistent real wage growth in excess of productivity growth that could trigger inflationary wage?price dynamics, or the possibility that longer-term inflation expectations could become unanchored.』
『A few participants pointed to the possibility that structural factors that had contributed to low inflation in the previous decade, such as technological changes, demographics, and a low real interest rate environment, may reemerge when the effects of the pandemic abate.』
ここでやっと「構造問題が復活してまたディスインフレ圧力になるリスク」の話が出る。
『Uncertainty about real activity was also seen as elevated. Various participants noted downside risks to the outlook, including a possible worsening of the pandemic, the potential for escalating geopolitical tensions, or a substantial tightening in financial conditions.』
一方で経済活動の方はダウンサイドリスクがある、というのはまあそらそうだという感じですね。
・物価についてはとにかく強いよ強いよアイヤーという話の連発
第8パラグラフは物価。時間が無くなってきたので段々手抜き化するのはご勘弁。
『Participants remarked that recent inflation readings had continued to significantly exceed the Committee's longer-run goal and elevated inflation was persisting longer than they had anticipated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy.』
現状認識がハチャメチャに強いというか上振れアイヤーな表現。
『However, some participants commented that elevated inflation had broadened beyond sectors most directly affected by those factors, bolstered in part by strong consumer demand.』
と、一時的なファクターとか局地的なファクターが多くね?という指摘もあるんだが、
『In addition, various participants cited other developments that had the potential to place additional upward pressure on inflation, including real wage growth in excess of productivity growth and increases in prices for housing services.』
結局また上がっている話に戻った挙句に、
『Participants acknowledged that elevated inflation was a burden on U.S. households, particularly those who were least able to pay higher prices for essential goods and services.』
生活物価上昇が特に中位以下の家計にペインだという認識を示して、
『Some participants reported that their business contacts remained concerned about persistently high inflation and that they were adjusting their business practices to cope with higher input costs-for instance, by raising output prices or utilizing contracts that were contingent on their costs.』
『Participants generally expected inflation to moderate over the course of the year as supply and demand imbalances ease and monetary policy accommodation is removed.』
『Some participants remarked that longer-term measures of inflation expectations appeared to remain well anchored, which would support a return of inflation over time to levels consistent with the Committee's goals.』
『Participants noted that the labor market had made remarkable progress in recovering from the recession associated with the pandemic and, by most measures, was now very strong.』
と来まして以下色々な指標の話があるのだがそこはノーコメントで行くわw
『Increases in employment had been solid in recent months; the unemployment rate had declined sharply, reaching 3.9 percent in December; job openings and quits were near record high levels; and nominal wages were rising at the fastest pace in decades. Several participants commented that the gains, on balance, over recent months had been broad based, with notable improvements for lower-wage workers as well as African Americans and Hispanics. Against this backdrop of a generally strong and improving labor market, many participants observed that the effects of the Omicron variant likely would only temporarily suppress the rate of labor market gains. The labor force participation rate had edged up further over the past few months, and some participants indicated that they expected it to continue to increase as the pandemic eased. A couple of participants noted that the participation rate remained lower than trend levels that account for changing demographics.』
続いて6パラ。
『Participants noted that their District contacts were reporting that labor demand remained historically strong and that labor supply remained constrained, resulting in a broad shortage of workers across many parts of the economy. As a result, there was widespread evidence that the labor market was very tight, including near-record rates of quits and job vacancies as well as nominal wage growth that was the highest recorded in decades.』
リコードハイとかそんな威勢の良い言葉が連発される。
『Several participants reported that District business contacts were either planning to implement or had implemented larger wage increases than those of recent years to retain current employees or attract new workers. A few participants also reported contacts having been forced to reduce operating hours or close businesses temporarily because of labor shortages.』
ということで子のパラは労働供給がタイトという話でしたな。では7パラ。
『Acknowledging that the maximum level of employment consistent with price stability evolves over time, participants expressed a range of views regarding their assessments of current labor market conditions relative to the Committee's goal of maximum employment.』
ここがマンデート達成してるかどうかの議論のパートになりますが、
『Many participants commented that they viewed labor market conditions as already at or very close to those consistent with maximum employment, citing indications of strong labor markets including the low levels of unemployment rates, elevated wage pressures, near-record levels of job openings and quits, and a broad shortage of workers across many parts of the economy. 』
『A couple of participants commented that, in their view, the economy likely had not yet reached maximum employment, noting that, even for prime-age workers, labor force participation rates were still lower than those that prevailed before the pandemic or that a reallocation of labor across sectors could lead to higher levels of employment over time.』
2名以外の参加者は「labor market conditions as already at or very close to those consistent with maximum employment」ってじゃあ何で今回利上げしないんだよという感じの話をしていますが、今までのお話でお分かりのように、1月利上げしない理由については一切触れずに謎のまま流しているのも何なんでしょ、って感じですね。
今日は既にFINALバージョンになっていますのでそっちから引用します。 [外部リンク] need to be nimble so that we can respond to the full range of plausible outcomes.」ってのと、一番打者の質問に対する答えの中にあった「And I stress again that we’ll be humble and nimble.」ってのがバズワードみたいになっているようですわな。
『So for a year now, the statements referenced the benchmarks for this initial interest rate increase. Now that we’re approaching that moment, what are the benchmarks going to be for subsequent rate increases? I know you can’t stipulate the path, but how should we think about the criteria for the next step and the next step?』
『CHAIR POWELL. Well, you’re right. We haven’t got-we haven’t gotten to that point yet.』
(^^)。
『We haven’t made a decision yet, and we’ll make that decision at the March meeting. We’ll make a decision whether to raise the federal funds rate.』
『I would say that the Committee is, is of a mind to, to raise the federal funds rate at the March meeting, assuming that conditions are appropriate for doing so.』
うだうだと言い方を変えていますが要は3月利上げ決め打ちなのは分かった。
『We have-we have our eyes on, on the risks, particularly around the world. But we do expect some softening in the economy from Omicron, but we think that that should be temporary. And we think that the economy should-the underlying strength of the economy should, you know, should, should-show through fairly quickly after that.』
これでは全然答えになっていない気がするんだが更問が来る。
『HOWARD SCHNEIDER. If I could follow just on a related question, the December SEPs had this copacetic sort of set of circumstances where inflation comes down without the federal funds rate ever getting over the estimate of neutral. Given developments since then, do you still think that’s a credible narrative for the ultimate path of policy?』
『CHAIR POWELL. I think the path is highly uncertain and that we’re committed to using our tools to make sure that inflation, high inflation that we’re seeing, does not become entrenched. So a number of factors would be-it’s not just monetary policy-a number of actors are supporting a decline in inflation, as I mentioned.』
『Fiscal policy will be-will provide significantly less of an impulse to growth. We do expect this year-although we do expect now that it will come slower than, than we had expected and hoped-that there will be relief on the supply side. So that, too, should-should lower the supply-side barriers, which are a big part of the story of why inflation is high. In addition, monetary policy will be becoming significantly less accommodative.』
金融政策について「will be becoming significantly less accommodative」とご丁寧にも「significantly」まで付けているので、そらまあ正常化スタンス自体は結構強固なものだとは思うのですが、ただ他のファクターに押し下げ要因がある、という説明だと利上げ大特攻も(その他押し下げ要因を無視した形で)ぶっこむという訳でもなさそうですよね。
『So the question is-you know, we’ll, we’ll be asking this question all year long, and that will be, are things turning out as we expect? There’s a case that, for whatever reason, the economy slows more and inflation slows more than expected; we’ll react to that. If, instead, we see inflation at a higher level or a more persistent level, then we’ll react to that.』
『And, again, we’re, we’re well aware that this is a different economy than-than existed during the last tightening cycle, and our policy is going to reflect those differences.』
『COLBY SMITH. Thank you, Michelle. Chair Powell, when you talk about being humble and nimble about the path forward for monetary policy, does that also include the possibility of raising interest rates by larger increments and, say, doing a 50 basis point hike at some point if inflation does not moderate sufficiently? And should we interpret this approach as a departure from the gradual pace that we saw during the last hiking cycle?』
どうせこの点最初から質問するつもりだったんでしょうけど、その質問をするために、ここまでのパウエルさんの回答にあった「humble and nimble」とか「last hiking cycle(とは状況が違う)」というのを踏まえながら質問する、というのが学ぶべき質問のやり方ですな。
『CHAIR POWELL. So, as I mentioned, we have not made these decisions. We really haven’t. And, and what I can tell you now, though, is that we fully appreciate that this is a different situation.』
ふむふむ。
『If you look back to where we were in 2015, ’16, ’17, ’18 when we were raising rates, inflation was very close to 2 percent, even below 2 percent. Unemployment was, was not at our estimates of the natural rate. And growth was, you know, in the 2 to 3 percent range.』
『Right now, we have inflation running substantially above 2 percent and, and, you know, more persistently than we would like. We have growth-even in forecasts, even in the somewhat reduced forecast for 2022-we still see growth higher than, substantially higher than what we estimate to be the potential growth rate. And we see a labor market where, by so many measures, it is historically tight.』
『I think the-you know, in a way, the least tight aspect of it is, is looking at the unemployment rate, which is still below our median estimate of, of [the unemployment rate consistent with] maximum employment. If you look at things like quits and job openings, as I mentioned earlier, and wages, you’re seeing-and, and just the ratio of job openings to unemployed-you’re seeing a very, very tight labor market.』
『Now, we also know that labor force participation is significantly lower. It’s 1-1/2 percentage points lower than it was in February of 2020. Maybe a [full] percentage point of that is, is retirements. Some part of those retirements are, are, you know, related to COVID rather than just regular retirements. So we think there’s, there’s a pool of people out there who could come back into the labor force. But it’s not happening very quickly, and it may not-it may continue to not happen very quickly as long as the pandemic is on[going].』
最終的にはこの次に、
『So that’s, that’s, that’s how we think about that. We haven’t made-to your specific question-we really have not addressed those questions. And we’ll begin to address them as we-as we move into the March meeting and meetings after that.』
[外部リンク] on Twitter Interview on Twitter with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted and published on 9 February 2022 9 February 2022
『Hello, this is @Isabel_Schnabel, Executive Board member at the ECB. I’m looking forward to answering your questions for the next 45 minutes or so. Join the conversation! #AskECB』
ということで45分間登場したそうな。最初の質問から早速イイシツモンタ゛ナーである。
・利上げによってエネルギー価格が低下するというメカニズムについて説明して下さいと来ましたw
『Can you explain the main mechanism by which raising rates would lower energy prices?』
これはひどい(褒めてる)。
『@Isabel_Schnabel: Raising rates would not lower energy prices.』
斬撃食らったのをまともに受けるという大技だがこの位の潔さは必要ですね。
『But if high current inflation threatens to lead to a de-anchoring of inflation expectations, we may still need to respond, as our mandate is to preserve price stability. #AskECB』
『#AskECB Is inflation always a monetary phenomena?』
これは置物もニッコリの質問ですが、
『@Isabel_Schnabel: The empirical link between money growth and inflation has weakened over recent decades. Inflation developments depend on the transmission of policy measures to the real economy, which hinges, for example, on the state of the banking sector. #AskECB』
『Some people believe that in the current situation, raising interest rates would help fight inflation. In your opinion: If current inflation is strongly driven by energy prices, why would an increase in interest rates help?』
前の発言を受けてロジックに突っ込む、というのは大変結構ですいいぞもっとやれ。
『@Isabel_Schnabel: Monetary policy has to keep a watchful eye on all factors, including energy, that affect the medium-term inflation outlook.』
そもそも論をだして煙に巻く気満々。
『An extended period of high energy price inflation may lead to expectations of higher inflation in the future. #AskECB』
全然答えになってない・・・・・・・・・・・
・でもってインフレ期待は今の所アンカーされているという説明をするので中々説明がややこしい
話しの都合上その1つ前の質疑から引用する。
『#AskECB: Is the high inflation transitory?』
直球クソワロタのだが実は重要な質問。
『@Isabel_Schnabel: Inflation will remain high for longer than anticipated. There is a risk that inflation continues to rise in the near term but it is likely to gradually decline towards the end of this year. There remains high uncertainty around the inflation outlook. #AskECB』
物凄くファジーな答え方にはなっていますが、でも「it is likely to gradually decline towards the end of this year.」なのでトランジトリーだって話をしていますね。
『#AskECB Why do you think "this time is different" i.e. no need for Volker's approach to hike 100% above CPI? Or do we need double digit first?』
『@Isabel_Schnabel: In the 1970s rising oil prices triggered a harmful price-wage spiral, as inflation expectations drifted away. Today longer-term inflation expectations are well-anchored. We will ensure that high inflation does not become entrenched. #AskECB』
『Are you planning on further increasing the EU Housing bubble so I can never buy my own House?』
住宅価格上昇に関しては批判タラタラなんでしょうな、というのが良く分かる質問で大変結構である。
『@Isabel_Schnabel: House prices have risen strongly in the euro area, and monetary policy was one contributing factor. Macroprudential policy is the first line of defence but monetary policy needs to take financial stability and inequality considerations into account. #AskECB』
『Read my speeches on how monetary policy may deal with financial stability and with inequality: [外部リンク] - How would you explain the divergence in tone between the latest official statement and the communication delivered by C. Lagarde? To what level will the ECB accept the "cost of transition" towards normalization without affecting EZ financial conditions?』
ジャガーチェンジの話に続いて正常化の過程で金融環境に大きな負荷掛かると思うんだがどうなのよと質問。
『@Isabel_Schnabel: The monetary policy statement contained important changes regarding the upside risks to inflation and the need for optionality. The process of normalisation will be data-dependent and gradual, avoiding unnecessary disruptions. #AskECB』
