[外部リンク] 21, 2022 Restoring Price Stability Chair Pro Tempore Jerome H. Powell At "Policy Options for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth" 38th Annual Economic Policy Conference National Association for Business Economics, Washington, D.C.
『At our meeting that concluded last week, we took several steps in pursuit of these goals: We raised our policy interest rate for the first time since the start of the pandemic and said that we anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate to reach our objectives. We also said that we expect to begin reducing the size of our balance sheet at a coming meeting.』
はい。そういや会見ではat a coming meetingの質疑無かったので、これは5月頭のFOMCでランオフ開始が決定されるという話でおけまるなのかな、と思いましたが・・・・・・・・・
『In my press conference, I noted that action could come as soon as our next meeting in May, though that is not a decision that we have made.』
『These actions, along with the adjustments we have made since last fall, represent a substantial firming in the stance of policy with the intention of restoring price stability.』
『The Labor Market Is Very Strong and Extremely Tight』
www
まあ何ですな、この「The Labor Market Is Very Strong and Extremely Tight」自体は(下の方にのっけております土曜日に詫び石更新した)FOMC後の会見でのオープニングリマークの中でも思いっきり記載されているので、これ自体は既にご案内ちゃあご案内なのですが、こうやって独立して出されるとやっぱり見た目のインパクトが違いますな。
でもってVery Strong and Extremely Tightな労働市場の説明があるみたいなのですがアタクシの野生の勘がとりあえずすっ飛ばして先に行けと申しているので先に行きますと次が物価でこの小見出しがまた凄い。
『The Inflation Outlook Has Deteriorated Significantly』
『As the magnitude and persistence of the increase in inflation became increasingly clear over the second half of last year, and as the job market recovery accelerated beyond expectations, the FOMC pivoted to progressively less accommodative monetary policy.』
ここで「progressively less accommodative monetary policy」といってるのはこれまでの話のようで、昨年の6月以降このように先行きの政策金利見通しを変更しております(キリッ)という説明が続く。
『In June, the median FOMC participant projected that the federal funds rate would remain at its effective lower bound through the end of 2022, and as the news came in, the projected policy paths shifted higher (figure 5).』
図表5はこちらですが、どう見ても後追い対応です本当にありがとうございました。 [外部リンク] median projection that accompanied last week's 25 basis point rate increase shows the federal funds rate at 1.9 percent by the end of this year and rising above its estimated longer-run normal value in 2023. The latest FOMC statement also indicates that the Committee expects to begin reducing the size of our balance sheet at a coming meeting.』
この辺は今回の政策対応と今回示したドットプロットの説明。
『I believe that these policy actions and those to come will help bring inflation down near 2 percent over the next 3 years.』
だそうですが・・・・・・・・・・・・・
・最初にドットチャートで説明をしておいて直後に積極的に空文化していくスタイルキタコレ
次のパラグラフに参ります。
『As always, our policy projections are not a Committee decision or fixed plan.』
だったら紛らわしいから出すなよと小一時間。
『Instead, they are a summary of what the FOMC participants see as the most likely case going forward. The events of the past four weeks remind us that, in tumultuous times, what seems like the most likely scenario may change quite quickly: Each Summary of Economic Projections reflects a point in time and can become outdated quickly at times like these, when events are developing rapidly.』
『Thus, my main message today is that, as the outlook evolves, we will adjust policy as needed in order to ensure a return to price stability with a strong job market.』
『How will fallout from the invasion of Ukraine affect the economy and monetary policy? Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have significant effects on the world economy and the U.S. economy. The magnitude and persistence of these effects remain highly uncertain and depend on events yet to come.』
ウクライナ戦争の影響についてというのが一つ目のお題のようです。
『Russia is one of the world's largest producers of commodities, and Ukraine is a key producer of several commodities as well, including wheat and neon, which is used in the production of computer chips. There is no recent experience with significant market disruption across such a broad range of commodities.』
幅広い国際商品市況への影響がありまっせ。
『In addition to the direct effects from higher global oil and commodity prices, the invasion and related events are likely to restrain economic activity abroad and further disrupt supply chains, which would create spillovers to the U.S. economy.』
『Fortunately, the United States is now much better situated to weather oil price shocks.4 We are now the world's largest producer of oil, and our economy is significantly less oil intensive than in the 1970s.』
『Today a rise in oil prices has mixed effects on the economy, lowering real household incomes and thus demand, but raising investment in drilling over time and benefiting oil-producing areas more generally. On net, oil shocks tend to weigh on output in the U.S. economy, but by far less than in the 1970s.』
『Our goal is to restore price stability while fostering another long expansion and sustaining a strong labor market. In the FOMC participant projections I just described, the economy achieves a soft landing, with inflation coming down and unemployment holding steady.』
『Growth slows as the very fast growth from the early stages of reopening fades, the effects of fiscal support wane, and monetary policy accommodation is removed.』
『Some have argued that history stacks the odds against achieving a soft landing, and point to the 1994 episode as the only successful soft landing in the postwar period.』
『I believe that the historical record provides some grounds for optimism: Soft, or at least soft-ish, landings have been relatively common in U.S. monetary history.5 』
『In three episodes-in 1965, 1984, and 1994-the Fed raised the federal funds rate significantly in response to perceived overheating without precipitating a recession (figure 6).6 』
過去3回のソフトランディングの例(とそれ以外の例)というのが図表6として出ていましてこれです。 [外部リンク] other cases, recessions chronologically followed the conclusion of a tightening cycle, but the recessions were not apparently due to excessive tightening of monetary policy. For example, the tightening from 2015 to 2019 was followed by the pandemic-induced recession.7』
『I hasten to add that no one expects that bringing about a soft landing will be straightforward in the current context?very little is straightforward in the current context.』
『And monetary policy is often said to be a blunt instrument, not capable of surgical precision.』
『My colleagues and I will do our very best to succeed in this challenging task. It is worth noting that today the economy is very strong and is well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy.』
『Finally, what will it take to restore price stability? The ultimate responsibility for price stability rests with the Federal Reserve. Price stability is essential if we are going to have another sustained period of strong labor market conditions.』
『I believe that the policy approach that I have laid out is well suited to achieving this outcome.』
『We will take the necessary steps to ensure a return to price stability.』
necessary stepsとは???と来てロイターさんのヘッドラインネタキタコレに続きます。
『In particular, if we conclude that it is appropriate to move more aggressively by raising the federal funds rate by more than 25 basis points at a meeting or meetings, we will do so.』
キタコレ。
『And if we determine that we need to tighten beyond common measures of neutral and into a more restrictive stance, we will do that as well.』
『Our monetary policy framework, as embodied in our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, emphasizes that having longer-term inflation expectations anchored at our longer-run objective of 2 percent helps us achieve both our dual-mandate objectives.』
『While we cannot measure longer-term expectations directly, we monitor a variety of survey- and market-based indicators. In the recent period, short-term inflation expectations have, of course, risen with inflation, but longer-run expectations remain well anchored in their historical ranges (figure 7).』
『The added near-term upward pressure from the invasion of Ukraine on inflation from energy, food, and other commodities comes at a time of already too high inflation. In normal times, when employment and inflation are close to our objectives, monetary policy would look through a brief burst of inflation associated with commodity price shocks. 』
『However, the risk is rising that an extended period of high inflation could push longer-term expectations uncomfortably higher, which underscores the need for the Committee to move expeditiously as I have described.』
『The past two years have been extraordinarily challenging for many Americans. Two years ago, more than 20 million people were losing their jobs, millions were falling ill, and lives were being disrupted. We have made enormous strides since then. Today, as I have discussed, the labor market is very strong. But, to end where I began, inflation is much too high. We have the necessary tools, and we will use them to restore price stability.』
[外部リンク] of Chair Powell’s Press Conference March 16, 2022
なお、雇用と物価の部分などで1月FOMCのオープニングリマークを比較する場合がございまして、その場合は [外部リンク] POWELL. Good afternoon. I want to begin by acknowledging the tremendous hardship the Ukrainian people are suffering as a result of Russia’s invasion. The human toll is tragic. The financial and economic implications for the global economy and the U.S. economy are highly uncertain.』
まあハイリーアンサータン以外言いようはないわな。
・利上げしましたよ今後も利上げするのが適切ですよバランスシートのランオフも近日公開だよ
『At the Federal Reserve, we are strongly committed to achieving the monetary policy goals that Congress has given us: maximum employment and price stability. Today, in support of these goals, the FOMC raised its policy interest rate by 1/4 percentage point.』
はい。
『The economy is very strong, and against the backdrop of an extremely tight labor market and high inflation, the Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate.』
んだんだ。
『In addition, we expect to begin reducing the size of our balance sheet at a coming meeting.』
これってやっぱり5月に決定って事なんけ??まあどうせ後で誰かが質問してくれるでしょう(安直)。
・背景説明成長率編はあっさり味
で、背景説明とおもったら経済の説明で早速SEPの見通しまで出してきました。
『Economic activity expanded at a robust 5-1/2 percent pace last year, reflecting progress on vaccinations and the reopening of the economy, fiscal and monetary policy support, and the healthy financial positions of households and businesses. The rapid spread of the Omicron variant led to some slowing in economic activity early this year, but cases have declined sharply since mid-January, and the slowdown seems to have been mild and brief.』
と、現状が強いでっせコロナとか終わったもんねという話をして、
『Although the invasion of Ukraine and related events represent a downside risk to the outlook for economic activity, FOMC participants continue to foresee solid growth; as shown in our Summary of Economic Projections, the median projection for real GDP growth stands at 2.8 percent this year, 2.2 percent next year, and 2 percent in 2024.』
ウクライナ戦争の不確実性はあるものの高成長を見込みますよという話ですがまああっさり味。
・背景説明労働市場編ですがクッソ強い認識
『The labor market has continued to strengthen and is extremely tight.』
1月のFOMCのオープニングリマークではこの部分、「The labor market has made remarkable progress and, by many measures, is very strong.」と、1月の時点でも大概に強い表現になっていたのですが、「extremely tight」って寧ろ完全雇用を超えて過熱してるって感じまでする(まあそこまでではないということなんでしょうけど)表現で、お賃金の所は見るにしても他は余程コケ無い限りはもう全然気にしなくて良いのではないかってくらいの勢いです。
『Over the first two months of the year, employment rose by more than one million jobs. In February, the unemployment rate hit a post-pandemic low of 3.8 percent, a bit below the median of Committee participants’ estimates of its longer-run normal level.』
失業率はパンダミック前よりも改善してるし水準は自然失業率以下だよ。
『The improvements in labor market conditions have been widespread, including for workers at the lower end of the wage distribution as well as for African Americans and Hispanics.』
この部分は1月も同じ認識示してました。
『Labor demand is very strong, and while labor force participation has increased somewhat, labor supply remains subdued. As a result, employers are having difficulties filling job openings, and wages are rising at their fastest pace in many years.』
『FOMC participants expect the labor market to remain strong, with the median projection for the unemployment rate declining to 3.5 percent by the end of this year and remaining near that level thereafter.』
これはSEPの見通し。
・背景説明物価編はまあ普通に強いよ強いよ2%に落ち着かるが重要だよと
次は物価。
『Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent. Aggregate demand is strong, and bottlenecks and supply constraints are limiting how quickly production can respond. These supply disruptions have been larger and longer lasting than anticipated, exacerbated by waves of the virus here and abroad, and price pressures have spread to a broader range of goods and services. Additionally, higher energy prices are driving up overall inflation. The surge in prices of crude oil and other commodities that resulted from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will put additional upward pressure on near-term inflation here at home.』
『We understand that high inflation imposes significant hardship, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We know that the best thing we can do to support a strong labor market is to promote a long expansion, and that is only possible in an environment of price stability. As we emphasize in our policy statement, with appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, we expect inflation to return to 2 percent while the labor market remains strong.』
『The median inflation projection of FOMC participants is 4.3 percent this year and falls to 2.7 percent next year and 2.3 percent in 2024; this trajectory is notably higher than projected in December, and participants continue to see risks as weighted to the upside.』
12月対比でnotably higherはシャーナイナイ。
・というわけで利上げについてのお話だがSEPの説明入れる必要あったんけ???
『The Fed’s monetary policy actions have been guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. Our policy has been adapting to the evolving economic environment, and it will continue to do so. As I noted, the Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.』
そんな背景のもとで利上げしましたでっせ。
『The median projection for the appropriate level of the federal funds rate is 1.9 percent at the end of this year, a full percentage point higher than projected in December.』
『Of course, these projections do not represent a Committee decision or plan, and no one knows with any certainty where the economy will be a year or more from now.』
『Reducing the size of our balance sheet will also play an important role in firming the stance of monetary policy.』
おwwwwまwwwwえwwwwwwwwwwww
バランスシート拡大するときは重要な拡大みたいな話(をしたのは逆さ絵ハゲだが)をして、テーパリングおっぱじめようとかそういう段階になると急に「金利がメインツールでバランスシートはおまけ」と説明し、今回はいきなりバランスシートの縮小は金融政策の締めていくスタンスの中で「also play an important role」ってお前は何を言っているのかと一時間問い詰めたいんだがwwwwwwwwwwww
『At our meeting that wrapped up today, the Committee made good progress on a plan for reducing our securities holdings, and we expect to announce the beginning of balance sheet reduction at a coming meeting.』
『In making decisions about interest rates and the balance sheet, we will be mindful of the broader context in markets and in the economy, and we will use our tools to support financial and macroeconomic stability. 』
『As we noted in our policy statement, the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain. In addition to the direct effects from higher global oil and commodity prices, the invasion and related events may restrain economic activity abroad and further disrupt supply chains, which would create spillovers to the U.S. economy through trade d other channels. The volatility in financial markets, particularly if sustained, could also act to tighten credit conditions and affect the real economy.』
まあここは一般的に妥当と思われる話をしてるだけですな。
・ニンブルにデータディペンデント来ました!
『Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy often evolves in unexpected ways.』
『We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook.』
ニンブルキターーーーーーーー(・∀・)ーーーーーーーーーー!!!
『And we will strive to avoid adding uncertainty to what is already an extraordinarily challenging and uncertain moment. We are attentive to the risks of potential further upward pressure on inflation and inflation expectations.』
と思ったらしれっと「We are attentive to the risks of potential further upward pressure on inflation and inflation expectations.」とぶっこんでいて、どこからどう見ても今出ているSEPのパス通りにのうのうと25bp毎回利上げとかじゃない可能性アリアリという感じを示している、と思うのはアタクシが利上げ脳なのでバイアスが掛かってい説isあるwww
『The Committee is determined to take the measures necessary to restore price stability. The American economy is very strong and well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy.』
そらまあ2%に上げたって中立金利より低い位でしょうからぬ。
・最後のまとめ
『To conclude, we understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you. I look forward to your questions. 』
[外部リンク] of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen.』(今回) 『Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen.』(前回)
という威勢の良い経済全体の認識の文言は変わらず。
『Job gains have been strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially.』(今回)
『The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months but are being affected by the recent sharp rise in COVID-19 cases. Job gains have been solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially.』(前回)
『Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.』(今回)
『Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.』(前回)
『The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain, but in the near term the invasion and related events are likely to create additional upward pressure on inflation and weigh on economic activity.』(今回)
『The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations and an easing of supply constraints are expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation. Risks to the economic outlook remain, including from new variants of the virus.』(前回)
『The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run.』(今回) 『The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run.』(前回)
ここはもうお経の最初みたいな感じでいつも同じ。
『With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong.』(今回新設)
利上げ開始宣言がこのような文言で表現されていますが、語順に見て行きますと、最初の「With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy」がタイトニングとかノーマライゼーションとかじゃなくて「firming」となっているのが成程と思った所でして、もちろん中立金利よりもクッソ低い上にインフレヒャッハーの状態ですからここで25bp利上げしたからと言ってタイトニングでも何でもないのでタイトニングという表現も回避していますし、ポリシーノーマライゼーションはもしかしたらオープニングリマークの方では言うのかもしれませんが、ノーマライゼーションと言った場合、ノーマルの所に向けて利上げをしていく、みたいなニュアンスが強くなって、現状の「データディペンデントでハンブルあんどニンブル」の話とはちとニュアンスが違ってくるわけですな。
でもってこの分の後段、「the Committee expects inflation to return to its 2 percent objective and the labor market to remain strong.」もこう来るだろうなあという理屈構成になっていて、まず物価について「return to its 2 percent objective」とリターンという単語をぶっこんでいますし、SEPの物価見通しも上方修正されて正式に「23年も2%に戻りませんわメンゴメンゴ」となっているように、インフレを2%に向けて下げるというのを明確化したことと、あとは物価が下がることによって(経済にプラスに働き)最大雇用のマンデートも維持できる、というインフレ対応大正義モードとなっております。
『In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/4 to 1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.』(今回)
『In support of these goals, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.』(前回)
『In addition, the Committee expects to begin reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at a coming meeting.』(今回)
『The Committee decided to continue to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases, bringing them to an end in early March. Beginning in February, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $20 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $10 billion per month. The Federal Reserve's ongoing purchases and holdings of securities will continue to foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.』(前回)
おじいちゃんドメドメザパニーズにも程があるので、今回の「at a coming meeting」が次回の事なのか今後のどっか(そう遠くは無いでしょうが)の事を言ってるのかが良く分かっていないのですが、まあ5月6月7月ってFOMCぶっこまれているからそんなに大差なしと言ってしまえばそれまでですが、50bp上げれなかった代わりでバランスを取ったのかどうかとか、バランスシートのランオフに関しては(どうせやるとはいえ)利上げとのバランスでどういう調整するのか、という辺りはオープニングリマークからのQAでどうせ話はあるんでしょうかね。
でもって、今回もう一つチャーミングなのは、FEDのAPPで保有する債券が「smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions」というのを削除していることでして、さっきも1パラ(現状認識部分)でファイナンシャルコンディションのアセスメント文言を削除していまして、実は今回の声明文でこの部分も密かにポイントじゃんと思っているのですが、ここら辺の表現変化(というか削除)を見ると、もはやファイナンシャルコンディションが緩和的である必要はない、というメッセージも出している、と思うのよね。
『In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.』(今回)
『In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.』(前回)
『Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Esther L. George; Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.』(今回)
『Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Esther L. George; Patrick Harker; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.』(前回)
おや?今回は変態仮面の名前がありませんね、と思うと貫禄の50bp利上げ提案でしたwww
『Voting against this action was James Bullard, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage point to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.』(今回)
SEP [外部リンク] 1. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents, under their individual assumptions of projected appropriate monetary policy, March 2022』から参ります。
左から2022、2023、2024、ロンガーランです。
成長率 Change in real GDP 2.8 2.2 2.0 1.8 December projection 4.0 2.2 2.0 1.8
と思ったらなんか講演があったが30秒目を泳がせた結果別に目先の金融政策に直接言及していないように思えた(間違ってたらゴメンやで)のでURLだけはっておく。 [外部リンク] on the euro area economy by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the “Wirtschaftsgipfel” of Welt/Axel Springer in Berlin Berlin, 15 March 2022
という訳で、会見続きなんですけど [外部リンク] POLICY STATEMENT PRESS CONFERENCE Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB Frankfurt am Main, 10 March 2022
『I would like to ask you a question on the surprise factor you actually introduced today, because most of your watchers were completely convinced that you are going to pause and not change anything because of that heightened uncertainty. Perhaps you could elaborate a little bit on the thinking in the Governing Council on that issue to now reduce the pace of the APP, and why didn't you wait another month?』
『Then I'd like to go back as well to the rate question. Of course “some time after” could mean anything, but I would like to bring you back to that question whether you see a rate hike if things develop according to your dominant scenario now in the course of this year.』
『I will have difficulty addressing your second question because I don't know what is my dominant scenario.』
これは大草原不可避な回答wwwwwwwwwwwwww
・・・・ではありますが、まあ何ですかねこの「I don't know what is my dominant scenario.」というのは、この先さっぱりわけわからんから出たとこ勝負です決め打ちはしたくないんです、という話をしているんだとワタクシは思う訳なのですがどうでしょうか??
『We have a baseline and we have two scenarios; one is adverse, one is severe, and you will have all the details of those scenarios tomorrow. Suffice to say that watchers are not those who make Governing Council decisions. It is the Governing Council, 25 sensible people around the table, who look at what the mandate is, what the projections deliver, what the medium-term outlook for inflation looks like, what the risks are, what the uncertainty is, and on the basis of all that, who are trying to deliver a predictable course while being very cautious. That's really what we did and doing what you have to do should be the predictable thing.』
そもそも私たちはこのような形で情勢判断を行っておりますがな、と説明し、
『Adding uncertainty to an uncertain situation would not have been the right answer.』
というぶっこみ方をしているのはこれはキレッキレで宜しいと思うのですが、さっきのFEDプレビュー雑談に引き直して見ますと、2年とか3年先の政策金利水準がどうしたこうしたというのをぶっこんで来るドットチャートがまさにこの「Adding uncertainty to an uncertain situation would not have been the right answer.」ですよね、という話だったりするのですが、パウエルが同じこと言ってドットチャートの決め打ち度を下げるなり廃止するなりしたら面白いですね(と無理矢理話を自分の雑談に引っ張るワイ)。
『Now, you're coming back to this “some time after”. We came from a “shortly before”, because it addressed actually one end of the spectrum relative to the others. In other words, the time it takes to purchase assets relative to the time when interest rates could be hiked, and it did say “shortly before”. 』
『So there was an assumption that there would not be such a long period of time between when net asset purchases would stop and when there would be a rate hike. It was decided, and we debated that indeed, to replace it with “some time after”.』
とは言いましてもですね、「So there was an assumption that there would not be such a long period of time between when net asset purchases would stop and when there would be a rate hike.」って言ってるんですから、まあ利上げする時期について早める(2月の時点では10月からの20ビリオンが続いて利上げ直前に20ビリオンを止める、というようなニュアンスで書いてあったので、事実上4-9は利上げ絶対無しモードだったのですよね)ことは出来るってお話ではあります。やるかどうかとなるとこれはかなり微妙だとは思うのですが、APP拡大は止めたかったのと、10月まで動けないという状況からの脱却を行い早期に政策のフリーハンドを確保したい、という最初の質問での回答と同じことだと思うんですよね。
『That respects the sequencing that we had, which is net asset purchases and subsequently, the Governing Council looks at all the data to determine whether it is time to hike rates or not.』
“some time after”は総てを含んで(all-encompassing)おります(キリリッ)と来ているのでどうせ碌なこと言わないだろうと思うと案の定のトネガワ方式が続くのである。
『It can be the week after, but it can be months later, and by that I think we want to indicate that the time horizon is not what is going to matter most.』
『It's the data that will support the decision that is made by the Governing Council to assess the medium-term inflation outlook and whether a rate hike is warranted. You will have noted, by the way, that we have removed the bias that we had by eliminating “lower” in relation to our interest rates.』
あーーーーーーー!!!!これ見落としてたーーーーーーーー!!!!!!(つうこんのいちげき)
まあ正常化局面だから今更意味は無いと言ってしまえばそれまでなのですが、
[外部リンク] RELEASE Monetary policy decisions 10 March 2022
の金利の部分、
『Accordingly, the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels until it sees inflation reaching 2% well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon, and it judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at 2% over the medium term.』(この部分直上URLの3月決定事項公表文より)
2月は、 [外部リンク] RELEASE Monetary policy decisions 3 February 2022
『In support of its symmetric 2% inflation target and in line with its monetary policy strategy, the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it sees inflation reaching 2% well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon, and it judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at 2% over the medium term. This may also imply a transitory period in which inflation is moderately above target.』(この部分直上URLの3月決定事項公表文より)
これフォワードガイダンスまで含めて1文なのでクソ長い引用で恐縮ですが、確かに「to remain at their present or lower levels until」だったのが「to remain at their present levels until」になって利下げバイアスが無くなっておるわ、いやーこれ気が付かなかったです(超滝汗)。
[外部リンク] POLICY STATEMENT PRESS CONFERENCE Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB Frankfurt am Main, 10 March 2022
『A lot of the recent communication from the ECB has been about how supply driven the current inflation and even core inflation surge is, so how much agreement was there in the Governing Council about accelerating the pace of normalisation now?』
『Secondly: your new guidance states that interest rates will follow some time after net bond buying ends so does that mean that we are back to excluding rate hikes later this year, or how does that square with the significantly higher inflation projections you just presented?』
政策公表文のステートメントの方では政策金利ガイダンスについて、 [外部リンク] the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels until it sees inflation reaching 2% well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon, and it judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at 2% over the medium term.』(ここは直上URL先の今回の政策公表文より)
となっているのは前回も今回も同じなので、ガイダンス不変って書いてしまったのですが、前回の声明文でのAPPの説明に、 [外部リンク] October onwards, the Governing Council will maintain net asset purchases under the APP at a monthly pace of ユーロ20 billion for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates. The Governing Council expects net purchases to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates.』 (ここは直上URL先の前回の政策公表文より)
とあるのに対し、今回会見冒頭のオープニングリマークの所での表現が、
『Any adjustments to the key ECB interest rates will take place some time after the end of our net purchases under the APP and will be gradual. The path for the key ECB interest rates will continue to be determined by the Governing Council’s forward guidance and by its strategic commitment to stabilise inflation at two per cent over the medium term. 』(ここで当初のURL先のラガルド会見からの引用に戻って以下同様です)
『Accordingly, the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels until it sees inflation reaching 2% well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon, and it judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at 2% over the medium term.』
『Thank you very much for your three questions. First of all, in terms of Governing Council: we had very intense discussions about the current economic situation, about the outlook, about the uncertainty. And as with most institutions, communities, families - and probably you all - the war of Russia against Ukraine has tainted and overshadowed a lot of those discussions.』
『There were different views around the table - in all directions. But after those good discussions there was a determination by all Governing Council members to rally the proposal that was put together by the Executive Board and presented by our Chief Economist.』
『It takes a balanced approach. It delivers on the mandate that we have, which as you know is price stability in the face of what we are seeing.』
『Your second question related to accelerating normalisation. That was not the decision that was made today. The decision that was made was to progress step by step, to acknowledge the added uncertainty that we are facing and to therefore have added optionalities so that we can in all circumstances respond in an agile way.』
しかしまあこの「The decision that was made was to progress step by step, to acknowledge the added uncertainty that we are facing and to therefore have added optionalities so that we can in all circumstances respond in an agile way.」って何か格好いい表現ですけど、結局のところ言ってることは「状況に応じて出たとこ勝負!」と言ってるのと同じですわな、まあ仕方ないんでしょうけどwwwwwww
『You will have noted that our decision in relation to asset purchases under the APP is conditional and clearly states that we have a declining pace of purchase for Q2 and that for Q3, if the outlook for medium-term inflation is confirmed by the data, we will indeed end asset purchases. But if on the other hand the data - which are critically important because we are data dependent in our decisions - do not support this medium-term outlook as we see it now, then we indicate very clearly in the monetary policy statement that I have just read that the Governing Council stands ready to revise, both in terms of timeline and in terms of volume, its purchases.』
『So it is a conditional provision that you see in our decision and we are not in any way accelerating.』
it is a conditional provisionと来ました。まあ結果的に加速するかもしれないししないかもしれない、それは今後の状況次第だからシランガナ、とのお告げですな。
『This was in line with our December meeting, with our February meeting and press conference, and what we are doing is confirming our step-by-step approach, our maximum optionalities in the face of maximum uncertainty, but also delivering on our mandate which is price stability.』
さすがにこの「This was in line with our December meeting, with our February meeting and press conference」はコーヒー吹いたわ。まあこういっておかないと格好つかないからだと思うのだがあまりにも無理のある体面取り繕い。
『The medium-term inflation outlook both in the baseline delivered by staff and in the scenarios that you will see tomorrow in detail, which are all of course a worsening of the situation, there is not a positive and a negative. They are both more negative. But in all those baseline and two scenarios the medium-term inflation outlook arrives roughly at target.』
『I think in terms of optionalities, I'll be happy to expand a little bit because this is clearly what has guided us, added uncertainty, added optionalities. So what are we doing? We are clearly identifying the pace, we are procuring a situation where we can decide some time after net asset purchases what decision we should make in relation to rates. In terms of timeline, we're also saying that we will end net asset purchases under those data that I have just described in the course of Q3.』
『Q3 is three months, so we tried to have as much optionality in order to deal with the situation. I have underlined in my response to you “some time after”, which is a substitute to “shortly before”. Obviously “some time after” is an open time horizon which will be data dependent; the occurrence of which will be data dependent. I think that was your third question; “some time”. I think I have explained it with this response. I hope so.』
最後の所でin terms of optionalitiesということで、おぷしょなりティーが今回の結果によって広がったという話をしております。要はAPPのテーパリング終了した後でしたらさっくりと利上げも可能だし、まあその時の状況がイマイチならば利上げは先送りするし、さらにアイヤーだったらAPP再開するし、という選択が可能ですが、APPが終わるまでは利上げが出来ないので手段が1個無いという事になります。でもってQ3(APPのテーパリング完了しようとしているのがQ3の間に、って感じ)には政策の選択肢が拡大する、拡大するからやるという訳ではないのでその点は悪しからず。という話ですがな、と思いました。
まあどうでもよいちゃあどうでもよいのですが。 [外部リンク] POLICY STATEMENT PRESS CONFERENCE Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB Frankfurt am Main, 10 March 2022
『The economy grew by 5.3 per cent in 2021, with GDP returning to its pre-pandemic level at the end of the year. However, growth slowed to 0.3 per cent in the final quarter of 2021 and is expected to remain weak during the first quarter of 2022.』
昨年はホイホイ成長してコロナ前の水準を回復したものの21年4Qから滑ってしまってアイヤー。
『The prospects for the economy will depend on the course of the Russia-Ukraine war and on the impact of economic and financial sanctions and other measures. At the same time, other headwinds to growth are now waning. In the baseline of the staff projections, the euro area economy should still grow robustly in 2022 but the pace will be slower than was expected before the outbreak of the war. Measures to contain the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant have had a milder impact than during previous waves and are now being lifted. The supply disruptions caused by the pandemic also show some signs of easing. The impact of the massive energy price shock on people and businesses may be partly cushioned by drawing on savings accumulated during the pandemic and by compensatory fiscal measures.』
『Over the medium term, according to the baseline of the staff projections, growth will be driven by robust domestic demand, supported by a stronger labour market. With more people in jobs, households should earn higher incomes and spend more. The global recovery and the ongoing fiscal and monetary policy support are also contributing to this growth outlook. Fiscal and monetary support remains critical, especially in this difficult geopolitical situation.』
『Inflation increased to 5.8 per cent in February, from 5.1 per cent in January. We expect it to rise further in the near term. Energy prices, which surged by 31.7 per cent in February, continue to be the main reason for this high rate of inflation and are also pushing up prices across many other sectors. Food prices have also increased, owing to seasonal factors, elevated transportation costs and the higher price of fertilisers. Energy costs have risen further in recent weeks and there will be further pressure on some food and commodity prices owing to the war in Ukraine.』
『Price rises have become more widespread. Most measures of underlying inflation have risen over recent months to levels above two per cent. However, it is uncertain how persistent the rise in these indicators will be, given the role of temporary pandemic-related factors and the indirect effects of higher energy prices. Market-based indicators suggest that energy prices will stay high for longer than previously expected but will moderate over the course of the projection horizon. Price pressures stemming from global supply bottlenecks should also subside.』
『Labour market conditions have continued to improve, with unemployment falling to 6.8 per cent in January. Even though labour shortages are affecting more and more sectors, wage growth remains muted overall. Over time, the return of the economy to full capacity should support somewhat faster growth in wages. 』
労働市場に関しては改善するし、参加率の回復も賃金上昇が速い事によって早まるでしょう。
『Various measures of longer-term inflation expectations derived from financial markets and from surveys stand at around two per cent. These factors will also contribute further to underlying inflation and will help headline inflation to settle durably at our two per cent target.』
『The risks to the economic outlook have increased substantially with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and are tilted to the downside. While risks relating to the pandemic have declined, the war in Ukraine may have a stronger effect on economic sentiment and could worsen supply-side constraints again. Persistently high energy costs, together with a loss of confidence, could drag down demand more than expected and constrain consumption and investment.』
『The same factors are risks to the outlook for inflation, which are on the upside in the near term. The war in Ukraine is a substantial upside risk, especially to energy prices. If price pressures feed through into higher than anticipated wage rises or if there are adverse persistent supply-side implications, inflation could also turn out to be higher over the medium term. However, if demand were to weaken over the medium term, this could also lower pressures on prices.』
『The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused substantial volatility in financial markets. Following the outbreak of the war, risk-free market interest rates have partially reversed the increase observed since our February meeting and equity prices have fallen.』
まずは市場のボラが盛大に上がったという話ですね。
『The financial sanctions against Russia, including the exclusion of some Russian banks from SWIFT, have so far not caused severe strains in money markets or liquidity shortages in the euro area banking system. Bank balance sheets remain healthy overall, owing to robust capital positions and fewer non-performing loans. Banks are now as profitable as they were before the pandemic.』
『Bank lending rates for firms have increased somewhat, while lending rates for household mortgages remain steady at historically low levels. Lending flows to firms have declined after increasing strongly in the last quarter of 2021. Lending to households is holding up, especially for house purchases.』
『Summing up, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will negatively affect the euro area economy and has significantly increased uncertainty. If the baseline of the staff projections materialises, the economy should continue to rebound thanks to the declining impact of the pandemic and the prospect of solid domestic demand and strong labour markets. Fiscal measures, including at the European Union level, would also help to shield the economy.』
良く分からんくなったけどベースラインシナリオでは云々という話。
『Based on our updated assessment of the inflation outlook and taking into account the uncertain environment, we revised our schedule for net asset purchases over the coming months and confirmed all our other policy measures.』
『We are very attentive to the prevailing uncertainties. The calibration of our policies will remain data-dependent and reflect our evolving assessment of the outlook. We stand ready to adjust all of our instruments to ensure that inflation stabilises at our two per cent target over the medium term.』
『The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a watershed for Europe. The Governing Council expresses its full support to the people of Ukraine. It will ensure smooth liquidity conditions and implement the sanctions decided by the European Union and European governments. The Governing Council will take whatever action is needed to fulfil the ECB’s mandate to pursue price stability and to safeguard financial stability.』
と、最初にご挨拶のような感じでウクライナ情勢に関しての話をして「to fulfil the ECB’s mandate to pursue price stability and to safeguard financial stability」と仰せですが・・・・・・
・資産買入について(最初の小見出しの通り)
『Asset purchase programme (APP)』
『Based on its updated assessment and taking into account the uncertain environment, the Governing Council today revised the purchase schedule for its APP for the coming months.』
APPのスケジュールを変更したのですが・・・・・・
『Monthly net purchases under the APP will amount to ユーロ40 billion in April, ユーロ30 billion in May and ユーロ20 billion in June.』
ちょwwwwwwwwwwww
2月決定時点でのはこれでした [外部リンク] net purchases under the APP will amount to ユーロ40 billion in the second quarter of 2022 and ユーロ30 billion in the third quarter. From October onwards, the Governing Council will maintain net asset purchases under the APP at a monthly pace of ユーロ20 billion for as long as necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates.』(ここだけ直上URL先の2月3日決定公表文書より引用)
『If the incoming data support the expectation that the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken even after the end of its net asset purchases, the Governing Council will conclude net purchases under the APP in the third quarter. If the medium-term inflation outlook changes and if financing conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards the 2% target, the Governing Council stands ready to revise its schedule for net asset purchases in terms of size and/or duration.』
『The Governing Council also intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it starts raising the key ECB interest rates and, in any case, for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.』
[外部リンク] monetary policy statement at a glance - March 2022
真ん中あたりの「What did we decide?」ってところから下を見るあるよろしアル。
(以下暫くは直上URLの「5分で読める今回の政策決定」から引用します)
『We are gradually reducing our net asset purchases』
横のイラストが謎の味を出していますが。
『We may conclude them in the third quarter if the data show that the outlook for inflation will not weaken. Any change to our interest rates will only come some time after the end of our net asset purchases and be gradual.』
とありますが、じゃあこの人たちの物価の見通しなんですけど、その下にありますように
『Inflation will remain high for longer than expected but eventually come down to our 2% target.』と仰せになっておりまして、その『Euro area inflation in 2021 and projections for 2022 and the coming years(projections from March 2022)』が
『The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively.』
政策金利は据え置き(テーパリング終わらないと動かないと明言しているから当たり前)。
『Any adjustments to the key ECB interest rates will take place some time after the end of the Governing Council’s net purchases under the APP and will be gradual.』
『The path for the key ECB interest rates will continue to be determined by the Governing Council’s forward guidance and by its strategic commitment to stabilise inflation at 2% over the medium term.』
『Accordingly, the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels until it sees inflation reaching 2% well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon, and it judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at 2% over the medium term.』
『In the first quarter of 2022, the Governing Council is conducting net asset purchases under the PEPP at a lower pace than in the previous quarter. It will discontinue net asset purchases under the PEPP at the end of March 2022.』
3月末でPEPPプログラムに伴う買入拡大は終了。
『The Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP until at least the end of 2024. In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance.』
『The pandemic has shown that, under stressed conditions, flexibility in the design and conduct of asset purchases has helped to counter the impaired transmission of monetary policy and made the Governing Council’s efforts to achieve its goal more effective. Within the Governing Council’s mandate, under stressed conditions, flexibility will remain an element of monetary policy whenever threats to monetary policy transmission jeopardise the attainment of price stability. In particular, in the event of renewed market fragmentation related to the pandemic, PEPP reinvestments can be adjusted flexibly across time, asset classes and jurisdictions at any time. This could include purchasing bonds issued by the Hellenic Republic over and above rollovers of redemptions in order to avoid an interruption of purchases in that jurisdiction, which could impair the transmission of monetary policy to the Greek economy while it is still recovering from the fallout from the pandemic. Net purchases under the PEPP could also be resumed, if necessary, to counter negative shocks related to the pandemic.』
『The Governing Council will continue to monitor bank funding conditions and ensure that the maturing of operations under the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) does not hamper the smooth transmission of its monetary policy. The Governing Council will also regularly assess how targeted lending operations are contributing to its monetary policy stance. As announced, it expects the special conditions applicable under TLTRO III to end in June this year. 』
『The Governing Council will also assess the appropriate calibration of its two-tier system for reserve remuneration so that the negative interest rate policy does not limit banks’ intermediation capacity in an environment of ample excess liquidity.』
ここも従来通りです。最後に今回は『Liquidity lines with non-euro area central banks』というコーナーができていまして、
『In view of the highly uncertain environment caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the risk of regional spillovers that could adversely affect euro area financial markets, the Governing Council decided to extend the Eurosystem repo facility for central banks (EUREP) until 15 January 2023. EUREP will therefore continue to complement the regular euro liquidity-providing arrangements for non-euro area central banks. Together, these form a comprehensive set of backstop facilities to address possible euro liquidity needs in the event of market dysfunctions outside the euro area that could adversely affect the smooth transmission of the ECB’s monetary policy. Requests from non-euro area central banks for individual euro liquidity lines will be assessed by the Governing Council on a case-by-case basis.』
『The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target over the medium term.
The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:30 CET today.』
〇ラガルドはんの会見ですがこの時間に既にQAの文字起こしまで出来ているとな
[外部リンク] Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB Frankfurt am Main, 10 March 2022
『Good afternoon, the Vice-President and I welcome you to our press conference.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a watershed for Europe. The Governing Council expresses its full support to the people of Ukraine. We will ensure smooth liquidity conditions and implement the sanctions decided by the European Union and European governments. We will take whatever action is needed to fulfil the ECB’s mandate to pursue price stability and to safeguard financial stability.』
『The Russia-Ukraine war will have a material impact on economic activity and inflation through higher energy and commodity prices, the disruption of international commerce and weaker confidence. The extent of these effects will depend on how the conflict evolves, on the impact of current sanctions and on possible further measures. In recognition of the highly uncertain environment, the Governing Council considered a range of scenarios in today’s meeting.』
当たり前ですが影響についてはまだまだ良く分からんし、影響するところはエネルギーや商品価格、世界的な商業への悪影響やコンフィデンスの悪化などで、これらは今後の推移次第でハイリーアンサータンである。ということですが、経済活動とインフレーションに顕著なインパクト、ということで経済コケても物価がグイグイ上昇という悲しい事もアリエールなのですが、今回は「a range of scenarios in today’s meeting」という話をしていまして、どこかのボンクラ中央銀行のように「スタグフレーションが起こるとは考えていない(キリッ)」とか言いきっちゃうような目標全然達成しないくせに態度だけは偉そうなボンクラ集団とは大違いですね!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
『The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war has to be assessed in the context of solid underlying conditions for the euro area economy, helped by ample policy support.』
実はアタクシ今回会見の音源流しながら各種の紙を読みだして、紙読む前にここに来た時に、「helped by ample policy support」が耳に入り、おやこれは緩和的な金融政策を縮小することなく続けるって話かと思えばさにあらずだったのはご案内の通りでして、この話でもその直後に、
『The recovery of the economy is boosted by the fading impact of the Omicron coronavirus variant. Supply bottlenecks have been showing some signs of easing and the labour market has been improving further.』
『In the baseline of the new staff projections, which incorporate a first assessment of the implications of the war, GDP growth has been revised downwards for the near term, owing to the war in Ukraine. The projections foresee the economy growing at 3.7 per cent in 2022, 2.8 per cent in 2023 and 1.6 per cent in 2024.』
『Price rises have also become more broadly based.』
さらに物価上昇がbecome more broadly basedって言ってるんだからインフレがアチャーという認識はさらに強まっている、というメッセージキタコレです。
『The baseline for inflation in the new staff projections has been revised upwards significantly, with annual inflation at 5.1 per cent in 2022, 2.1 per cent in 2023 and 1.9 per cent in 2024. 』
景気の方では前回比較の言語による説明が無かったのにこっちはアップウォーズシグニフィカントリー来まして、2022年が3.2→5.1、23年が1.8→2.1、24年が1.8→1.9と上昇。ちなみに12月のスタッフ見通しの時にも「significantly higher than in the previous projections」って言ってるんですけどねwww
『Inflation excluding food and energy is projected to average 2.6 per cent in 2022, 1.8 per cent in 2023 and 1.9 per cent in 2024, also higher than in the December projections.』
『Longer-term inflation expectations across a range of measures have re-anchored at our inflation target. The Governing Council sees it as increasingly likely that inflation will stabilise at its two per cent target over the medium term.』
『In alternative scenarios for the economic and financial impact of the war, which will be published together with the staff projections on our website, economic activity could be dampened significantly by a steeper rise in energy and commodity prices and a more severe drag on trade and sentiment.』
『Inflation could be considerably higher in the near term. However, in all scenarios, inflation is still expected to decrease progressively and settle at levels around our two per cent inflation target in 2024.』
しかしまあ物価の見通し、悪い方のシナリオではさらに上がるという話をしながら、「in all scenarios, inflation is still expected to decrease progressively and settle at levels around our two per cent inflation target in 2024.」とまだ降参しないで粘っておりますので、逆に言うと降参モードになった場合は政策の方でもう一発対応加速しないと行けない、という理屈になるので要注意ですな、うんうん。
・政策決定の説明
『Based on our updated assessment and taking into account the uncertain environment, the Governing Council today revised the purchase schedule for its asset purchase programme (APP) for the coming months. Monthly net purchases under the APP will amount to ユーロ40 billion in April, ユーロ30 billion in May and ユーロ20 billion in June. The calibration of net purchases for the third quarter will be data-dependent and reflect our evolving assessment of the outlook. If the incoming data support the expectation that the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken even after the end of our net asset purchases, the Governing Council will conclude net purchases under the APP in the third quarter. If the medium-term inflation outlook changes and if financing conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards our two per cent target, we stand ready to revise our schedule for net asset purchases in terms of size and/or duration.』
『Any adjustments to the key ECB interest rates will take place some time after the end of our net purchases under the APP and will be gradual. The path for the key ECB interest rates will continue to be determined by the Governing Council’s forward guidance and by its strategic commitment to stabilise inflation at two per cent over the medium term. Accordingly, the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels until it sees inflation reaching two per cent well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably for the rest of the projection horizon, and it judges that realised progress in underlying inflation is sufficiently advanced to be consistent with inflation stabilising at two per cent over the medium term.』
『We also confirmed our other policy measures, as detailed in the press release published at 13:45 today.』
『I will now outline in more detail how we see the economy and inflation developing, and will then explain our assessment of financial and monetary conditions.』
[外部リンク] monetary policy strategy of the ECB: the playbook for monetary policy decisions Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Hertie School, Berlin Berlin, 2 March 2022
最初のウクライナ云々の所はパスしまして
・今回のECB定例理事会で渾身の現状分析先行き見通しを出すぞと息巻いておられるようですが
『Today, I wish to frame the current monetary policy debate in the context of the monetary policy strategy of the ECB.[1] 』
というのは昨日引用した部分(最後のファイナンシャルスタビリティを飛ばしちゃったんですが)。
『I will not dwell on the latest conjunctural developments or speculate on the evolution of the medium-term outlook for the economy and inflation. Our monetary policy meeting next week will provide the best opportunity for a comprehensive assessment of economic and financial developments and the implications for near-term and medium-term inflation dynamics.』
『In this respect, the schedule for the March staff projections exercise has been revised in order to take into account the implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The revised schedule also means that today’s Eurostat inflation release will be incorporated in the projections that will be considered at next week’s monetary policy meeting.』
『Chart 1 provides some empirical context for the discussion by showing the evolution of headline and core inflation since 2014.』
こちらはHTMLページの埋め込み画像になっているので、磔刑にするスキルはワシには無いのだがリンクが貼れるけど直リンはしません(理由は特にないが何となく)。 [外部リンク] underlines that, until quite recently, the euro area has been confronted with a low-inflation problem, with inflation persistently well below two per cent. At the same time, Chart 1 also shows the sharp increase in inflation in recent months.』
『The flash inflation estimate for February that was published today stands at 5.8 per cent. The upward pressure on overall inflation from the extraordinary 31.7 per cent rate of energy inflation is operating through both direct and indirect channels, since the increases in the sectoral inflation rates for food, goods and services in part reflect the impact of higher energy prices for production costs in all sectors of the economy.』
『In recent weeks, I have emphasised that much of the sharp increase in the last six months can be attributed to the large-scale shock to energy prices and pandemic-related factors (including supply bottlenecks).[2] In any event, it is essential for a central bank to ensure that its monetary policy stance fully takes into account the implications of the shift in the inflation environment.』
とまあ物価上昇の多くの部分がエネルギー価格とサプライボトルネック、という話をしていますが、ゆうてここのケツの締めは「it is essential for a central bank to ensure that its monetary policy stance fully takes into account the implications of the shift in the inflation environment.」なので、元に戻るかどうかという件についてはさすがに「元に戻るからヘーキヘーキ」とは言ってられないというのも伝わります。
『Chart 2 shows the dynamics since 1999 of the estimated equilibrium nominal interest rate, which is constructed as the sum of the two per cent inflation target and the equilibrium real interest rate, which is the real interest rate that is consistent with full utilisation of available resources and inflation steady at the target.』
次は自然利子率についてですな。埋め込み画像のリンクは下記のURL先です。(さっきと同じで直リンはしません) [外部リンク] trend decline in equilibrium interest rates was a first-order issue in the strategy review exercise.』
ということで、ストラテジーレビューの前提に自然利子率の低下がある、と来まして・・・・・・・・・
『In particular, a low equilibrium interest rate means that any robust monetary policy strategy must take into account the effective lower bound on policy rates.』
でここに図があって次のパラグラフ。
『A monetary policy strategy serves two main purposes: first, it provides policymakers with a coherent analytical framework that maps actual or expected economic developments into policy decisions; and, second, it serves as a tool for communicating with the public.』
で、ここからストラテジックレビューの説明(から昨日引用した部分に繋がる)になります。
『A strategic approach to monetary policy is especially valuable when confronted with possible shifts in the underlying forces shaping inflation dynamics.』
『Rather than policymakers having to search in the dark for the appropriate policy response, a robust monetary policy strategy provides policymakers with the playbook for handling a wide range of scenarios.』
『The extensive Eurosystem monetary policy strategy review exercise during 2020 and 2021 considered a vast array of factors relevant for the conduct of monetary policy: the work of the Eurosystem staff was organised into thirteen workstreams and their many individual background notes are synthesised in the 18 Occasional Papers released in autumn 2021.』
『Of course, the strategy review did not start from scratch: there was much to retain from the earlier phases in the development of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy, both in terms of the initial design in 1998 and the review in 2003.』
『Rather than trying to provide a comprehensive overview of all of the dimensions of the entire strategy review, I will focus today on the guidance it provides for the conduct of monetary policy in pursuit of the two per cent inflation target over the medium term.』
